In Moscow’s Shadows

So Bashar al-Assad's blood-drenched regime has fallen. Hurrah. But what now for Russia? Is this a terrible geopolitical defeat, or actually something that perversely frees it from a commitment made in 2015, yet less relevant today? What are the likely knock-on effects for Russia's position in the Mediterranean and Africa? The hottest of hot takes.

That Q&A with Sam Heller and Aron Lund is at:

https://tcf.org/content/commentary/syrias-civil-war-has-roared-back-how-far-can-the-rebels-go/ 

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. 

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President Zelensky's suggestion that military attempts to retake the occupied territories could be abandoned in return for rapid NATO membership for Ukraine does mark a change in tack. What is driving this political-diplomatic adaptation?

And, in the second half, I draw on four books that speak in different ways to how Russia has managed (and sometimes failed) to adapt to the military and economic struggle, to bring them to this position.

The books are:

• Christopher Lawrence, The Battle for Kyiv (Frontline, 2023)
• Mick Ryan, The War for Ukraine. Strategy and adaptation under fire (Naval Institute Press, 2024)
• Stephanie Baker, Punishing Putin. Inside the global economic war to bring down Russia (Simon & Schuster, 2024)
• Charles Hecker, Zero Sum. The arc of international business in Russia (Hurst, 2024)

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. 

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Schrödinger's Defence Minister, at once busy and visible yet strangely inconsequential and intangible, what can one make of Andrei Belousov, his rise and his chances of achieving anything in his current role?

The entry page for the Conducttr online crisis exercise on Russian sabotage I mentioned is @ https://www.conducttr.com/russian-sabotage

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. 

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'Strategic culture' means the underlying cultural assumptions about threats and options that informs a nation's specific strategic choices, and Russia's has been strikingly continuous for centuries. As I discuss, it reflects the underlying circumstances and challenges of the country, and while not a straightjacket -- Gorbachev and Brezhnev were products of the same culture -- it helps explain Putin's own decisions.

The entry page for the Conducttr online crisis exercise on Russian sabotage I mentioned is @ https://www.conducttr.com/russian-sabotage

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. 

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It's impossible to avoid talking about the potential implications of Donald Trump's election, even as its difficult to know for sure what he intends and almost as hard to say anything that hasn't already been said. I have a go, though, after considering Putin's hour-long speech and epic (or exhausting) 3-hour Q&A on the 'polyphonic' world order at Valdai.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. 

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I use reviews of three books to consider the risks and limitations of personalistic explanations of power under Putin, and whether a medieval concept of clan and family actually makes more sense...

The books are:

• THE WIZARD OF THE KREMLIN by GIULIANO DA EMPOLI (Pushkin Press)
•  THE KREMLIN’S NOOSE. PUTIN’S BITTER FEUD WITH THE OLIGARCH WHO MADE HIM RULER OF RUSSIA by AMY KNIGHT (Icon Books and Cornell UP)
• THE RULING FAMILIES OF RUS. CLAN, FAMILY AND KINGDOM, by CHRISTIAN RAFFENSPERGER and DONALD OSTROWSKI (Reaktion Books)

The Inozemtsev piece I mention is here, and my review of the play Patriots is here.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. 

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(It seems to be obligatory to use a weak BRICS/bricks pun, so I felt I had to follow...)

The BRICS summit in Kazan (a smart place to hold it) gives all the appearances of being a propaganda win for Putin. However, I think it emphasised that in a new 'multipolar' world, he only has the friends he can afford to rent -- and some day the bill will become due.

In the second half, I question whether Russia is genuinely falling back into the 'wild 90s'. Perhaps the 'stagnant 70s'? Or the 'decaying 80s'? Or -- my favourite -- the 'braindead 10s'. Either way, these historical parallels should be considered no more than thought laboratories.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. 

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Released to Patrons yesterday, a bonus mini-pod on the claims that North Korean combat troops are heading to fight in Ukraine and what the media discussion also says about the current discourse.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. 

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An all-spook episode, as I try to piece together the rise of FSB First Deputy Director Sergei Korolev, who seems the most likely figure to succeed current agency chief Bortnikov. Corruption, clientelism, feuds, the power of the St Petersburg clique, and the implications if Korolev does rise.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. 

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At times it does look as if the emigre liberal opposition to Putin is in such a mess that it looks like a soap opera. So what are some of the recent plot twists and why are they so divided -- and, ultimately, is it necessarily such a bad thing?

In the second half, should Russians have collective guilt for Putin and the war? I don't think so, and explain why -- and why it matters.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. 

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The appointment to the Security Council of Alexander Linets, head of the Main Directorate of Special Programs of the President of the Russian Federation (GUSP), is a suitable moment to look into this, the most secret of Russia's security agencies. Is it about more than just bunkers and the continuity of governance in an apocalypse? Is there any truth that it is the final 'watcher over the watchers,' does secret jobs for the president, and even protects him against psychic attack? I lay out what we know, but have to admit, it's not very much. (Although I'm willing to discount the paranormal side of things.)

In the second half, I review two books relating to the security state: Kevin Riehle's The Russian FSB (Georgetown UP, 2024) and N M Borodin's memoir One Man in His Time (Pushkin Press, 2024).

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. 

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Putin's at it again, raising nuclear fears to unsettle the West. Or is the new revision to Russian nuclear doctrine more than just a bit of sabre-rattling? I suggest it is, with bearing on potential Ukrainian endgames. But we ought not to become too fearful: as I discuss in the second half, there are good reasons for him not to use his non-strategic nuclear weapons.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. 

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While the Security Council itself is having its time wasted with trivia, new Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu has been busy. How has he survived (is it the shaman connection? It is not), and what do his goals seem to be?

And, with President Zelensky about to unveil his 'victory plan', are the two sides beginning to contemplate possible endgames?

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. 

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I still haven't decided how/if to continue with these mid-week quickfire podcasts picking up on some news stories that catch my eye, but in the meantime, there's a divorce/business shootout in Moscow, more traffic fines (it matters, believe me) and another general under arrest.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. 

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What may a misadventure from 17th century Russian imperial history tell us about modern Russia? Why, about the perils of information logjams and public-private empires!

Details of the Pushkin House event I mentioned are here, and the Pertsev article is here.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. 

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As promised, a quickfire interim episode covering some of the past week's stories, from drones over Moscow and reactions to the US presidential debate to regional elections and planning for babies...

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. 

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I spin off two recent books, Elena Kostychenko's, I Love Russia. Reporting from a lost country and Sergei Medvedev's A War Made in Russia, both of which are excellent in their own terms, but also demonstrate something of a tendency for Russian intelligentsia to despair at their own country and people and fixate on the very worse. This is perhaps understandable but, as I suggest, neither accurate nor helpful as an influence on Western policy.

The Chicago Council report I mentioned is here, the OpenMinds report here. The interview with Evgeny Stupin is here, and REM's twitter handle is @russian_monitor

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. 

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Empty rumours of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov's death on the internet yesterday, got me thinking about his shrinking role, and the twilight of Russia's technocrats. Besides, he is already politically dead, so it’s in a way not too early to deliver his obituary and use that to consider some of the dilemmas and characteristics of senior figures who are technocrats, not Putin cronies.

The Pushkin House even I mentioned is here.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. 

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After another armed hostage taking by inmates (and bloody response), I consider what’s going on in Russia’s prisons, and what it may tell us about what’s happening in Russia as a whole. And in the last segment, I consider attitudes to Prigozhin, a year after his death.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. 

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As Ukraine's Kursk incursion rumbles on, what does it tell us about the political processes in Russia behind the warfighting? From how Russians really aren't apathetic and however low their expectations of their government may be, and do have a breaking point, to how Putin depends on and betrays his men on the spot, rumination about some wider developments and an historical parallel with the Time of Troubles....

The Andras Toth-Cifra piece on governors I mentioned is here, the FreshLabs findings are here.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. 

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I had hoped to not have to record a podcast this weekend, but life does enjoy its little pranks. A slightly shorter than usual episode on Ukraine's unexpected, unfolding and unpredictable move into Russia.

The Kommersant article I mention is here.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. 

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Where to start? The prisoner exchange and subsequent furore over released dissidents' statements? More arrests of senior military figures? The bizarre shenanigans over a controversial merger in Russian online business? Wagner's heavy losses in Mali? I try tackling them all.

NB: Updated 5 August to reflect Ilya Yashin's subsequent further comments on the war.

The BNE Intellinews article I mentioned is here.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. 

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With Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich sentenced to 16 years on what I consider wholly spurious espionage charges (and I explain why I think this), it's a suitable moment first to consider the likely reasons but also what kind of experience faces him in the Russian prison camp system.

That leads me on to discuss three recent books of relevance:

• Vladimir Pereverzin's The Prisoner. Behind Bars in Putin's Russia (Gemini, 2024)
• Jeffrey Hardy's The Soviet Gulag. History and Memory (Bloomsbury, 2023)
• Barry Lewis's Gulag. A photographic journey into the darkness of Stalin's prison camps (Fistful of Books, 2024)

The Eurasian Knot podcast I mentioned with Anna Arutunyan and me talking about our book Downfall is here.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. 

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The Rosgvardiya, the National Guard, is the final backstop of Putin's rule, the public order force on which he relies to control the streets.* However, facing growing protest at home and engaged in pacifying occupied Ukraine, they and their commander, the thuggish Viktor Zolotov, are under pressure. How well are they coping?

*Admittedly, arguably the FSO, the Federal Protection Service, is closer to the Praetorian Guard of Roman times, but I cannot pass up on a nice alliteration...

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. 

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The claim that Russian intelligence planned to murder a German industrialist highlights the Kremlin's escalating campaign of mayhem and disruption in Europe, from arson to disruptive cyberattacks. Why is Putin -- who was initially rather more cautious -- now raising the stakes and, more to the point, what can we do about it?

The Meduza report from Buryatia I mentioned is here.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. 

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Will the change in government in London and Sir Keir Starmer's elevation to prime minister  mean anything for Kyiv and Moscow? Are there lessons to be learned about how Moscow handles foreign elections, whether in terms of subversive operations or managing its own expectations? A few early thoughts, even though the honest answer is that not much is likely to change.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. 

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A compilation of current issues, which will nonetheless somehow connect:

• The Trump-Biden debate: what does the Kremlin really want?
• Nepotism: why are the princelings returning to politics?
• Terrorism in Dagestan: what does it portend?
• Covert Ops: ought the West be in the assassination business?

The Spectator piece I mentioned is here.

Tickets for the 9 July book event in London I mention are available at https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/russias-future-with-mark-galeotti-anna-arutunyan-hatchards-piccadilly-tickets-924326253707?aff=oddtdtcreator

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. 

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Exactly one year after Prigozhin's Wagner mercenary army began its mutiny, what has changed, and what can be learned? And why are so many Russians so keen to believe Prigozhin himself is not dead?

In the second half of this bumper episode, the full first chapter of the audiobook of my and Anna Arutunyan's new book Downfall. Prigozhin, Putin, and the new fight for the future of Russia (Ebury/Penguin, 2024). Out now in the UK and Europe, out in September in the US.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. 

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Ukraine's Ten Point Peace Plan, which received only limited endorsement at the recent Swiss Peace Summit, is essentially a demand for Russia's surrender. Putin's recent statement of conditions for negotiations is likewise a call for Kyiv to capitulate. Is this a complete impasse? Yes and no -- they are best considered as 'pre-peace positioning' in preparation for any future talks, whenever they happen, and a survey arranged by the Carnegie Endowment gives some interesting insights as to how that may go.

In the second half, I address the periodic claims that Russia needs to re-establish SMERSH, Stalin's infamous 'Death to Spies' murder squad. Is this likely, or simply a toxic by-product of Putin's rehabilitation of the dictator?

The Carnegie survey's full results are here.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. 

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Putin's lengthy Q&A at the St Petersburg International Forum (SPIEF), in conversation with hawkish academic Sergei Karaganov, provided a useful opportunity to gauge his mood and his vision for both war and peace. From whether Russia is European (yes) to whether he needs to go nuclear in Ukraine (no), one can certainly question many of his claims and assumptions, but he sounded more confident than he has in a while.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. 

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An episode of various bits and pieces: what (if anything) can we read into Alexei Dyumin's appointment to be secretary of the State Council, what (if anything) is the Western thinking about escalation and deterrence over Ukraine and what (if anything) is interesting about Denis Manturov, the new First Deputy PM?

The previous podcast in which I talk about Dyumin and Tula is #48, here.

The article I wrote with Ekaterina Schulmann comparing the State and Security Councils is here.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. 

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What is behind the current spate of corruption-related arrests within the Russian military? Fears of a coup, an FSB takeover, punishing the generals for a badly-fought war? I'd say it is what it seems, an attempt to tackle waste in a time of war. That doesn't mean this kleptocracy is changing its spots, though: even within corrupt systems, anti-corruption campaigns can be mobilised for a range of purposes.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. 

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There has been an unexpectedly interesting and extensive reshuffle of the Russian government, but what does it mean? I suggest it is about creating an enduring militarised, mobilised state, preserving Putin's rule not least through elevating a new generation of leaders and preparing to play generations against each other.

Details of the 28 May Cambridge event I mentioned (including the livestream link) are here.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. 

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Reading Barbara Emerson's excellent The First Cold War: Anglo-Russian Relations in the 19th Century got me thinking more about the nature of British-Russian relations, which really date back to the 16th century, why we each loom so large in the other's geopolitical imagination, and why Russia is torn between extreme Anglophilia and Anglophobia.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. 

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The case of Deputy Defence Minister Timur Ivanov, long known as 'king of the kickback,' but only now arrested and charged, provides a good opportunity to consider how corruption is so central to Putin's system, not simply as a reward mechanism to pay off the loyal, but also as a control mechanism and even a social one.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. 

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In the first part, I talk about some of the issues raised by a recent article in Foreign Affairs by Sam Charap and Sergei Radchenko for negotiations between Ukraine and Russia whenever they actually happen.

In the second I dig into the rise and challenges of Viktor Zolotov, head of the National Guard.

The Foreign Affairs article I mention is here.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. 

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Why are some individuals, parties, even countries still so willing to believe (or at least affect to believe) Putin's nonsense? As a way of trying to explain it, I turn to the intelligence recruitment acronym MICE: Money, Ideology, Compromise and Ego.

In the second half, I look at another potential up-and-comer, Yuri Trutnev, deputy PM and presidential representative of the Far East, and wonder if he might have a non-standard political trajectory in mind.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. 

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Is Putin's Russia becoming a revolutionary state? A recent article on RT by Dmitry Trenin, once one of the doyens of Russian foreign policy analysis, suggests so, but perhaps doesn't go far enough. I consider Trenin's piece in conjunction with others by Fedor Lukyanov and one Henry Johnston, to wonder whether Putin, in so many ways the arch conservative, is being forced to reinvent himself as a revolutionary under pressure of events since his invasion of Ukraine.

PS: I did say it wasn't beyond the wit of the Russians to put material from banned websites into other places. Trenin's article is also here.

In the second half, I briefly explore a heretical proposal ought we - to a degree, and tongue in cheek - be thanking Putin for his multi-vector political war on the West?

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. 

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After a sham election and a ghastly terrorist attack (and a pretty ghastly official response), time to talk about something else: sex, drugs and rock & roll.

Well, demography, access to pharmaceuticals, and the state's culture war in music, film and beyond - but that's almost the same, isn't it?

The Shaman video I mentioned is here, while if you want to see the trailer for Turist, it's here. For a more wholesome watch, the trailer for Cheburashka is here.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. 

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What a week it has been. I give my initial thoughts on the awful terrorist attack on the outskirts of Moscow, and then pivot to some further lessons of the sham presidential elections. It's all joy, all the time, here at In Moscow's Shadows...

There are further details of Vienna event at the Kreisky Forum on 8 April here, and on the Newcastle University public lecture on 16 May here.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. 

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Russia's presidential elections are coming to a close, and while Putin's landslide victory is a foregone conclusion in light of the manipulation of the process (I write about that here), that doesn't mean these elections don't matter. I discuss the things I'll be looking for, ranging from how the votes are allocated, through the potential for a cabinet reshuffle, to how this fits into wider political processes, from the cultivation of a new loyalist elite to the risk of a further mobilisation of soldiers for Ukraine.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. 

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Are we failing properly to consider the danger as the Kremlin turns to Russian-based organised crime groups abroad to make up for the expulsion of so many of its spies abroad and the constraints of the sanctions regime? I think so -- and here I explain why.

The ECFR Crimintern report I mention is here, and Rebellion as Racket, for the Global Initiative against Transnational Organised Crime is here.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

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An episode, I admit, on the nerdier end of the spectrum, as I dig into Putin's latest State of the Union, both for the detail and also for three big take-aways: that this was a stealth stump speech, that it left unanswered how (or if) the ambitious 6-year plan would be funded, and that it marks a new stage in Putin's Sovietisation.

My earlier video on the speech is here.

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Avenging may not be quite the right word, but what can the West do to punish the Kremlin for Navalny's death and furthering his cause in ways worthy of him? I set out some practical proposals.

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Well, not really, but how Navalny's awful death helps illustrate how late Putinism in its 'banana republic' phase comes to resemble the later Soviet era -- and what this may mean for its future.

My video on Navalny is here and Sunday Times article is here. The Moskovsky  Komsomolets article I cite is here.

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Is the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad a dangerous Russian bastion threatening the West, a point of vulnerability for Moscow, or a potential point of reconnection with Europe? How about a mix of all three -- and also an example of how even figures from a new 'Putin generation' politician can be technocrats rather than zealots.

In the second half, a brief rumination about how  simulation exercises like Conducttr's recent Kaliningrad Crucible can help if not prediction, at least analysis.

The Tucker Carlon-Putin interview article in the Sunday Times is here, and my video commentary is here.

Materials on the Kaliningrad Crucible crisis sim are here.

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As I'm travelling this weekend, this episode is a compilation of two sets of comparative book reviews already provided to my Patrons.

First up, three recent books on Russia that, together, would make up one pretty fine, balanced and comprehensive one...

• Thomas Graham, Getting Russia Right (Polity)
• Richard Sakwa, The Lost Peace (Yale)
• Leon Aron, Riding the Tiger (AEI)

In the second half, three more books, this time all about Ukraine:

• Maria Popova & Oxana Shevel, Russia and Ukraine. Entangled histories, diverging states (Polity)
• Simon Shuster, The Showman (William Collins)
• Andrew Harding, A Small, Stubborn Town (Ithaka)

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Barring particularly high-profile developments, we tend to look at Russia through the prism of Moscow (and maybe St Petersburg). How good a picture does this give us? To try and redress the balance, I use a recent Association D'Est report on 'Grassroots Propaganda and Repression in Russia's Komi Republic' to consider some of the wider lessons about protest and resistance in the provinces...

The D'Est webage is here, and you can learn more about the Bear Market brief here (substack) and here (podcast).

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A podcast of two halves. First of all, I look at the dilemmas and limitations facing European (EU and UK) strategy over Ukraine. Why is it so hard?

After the break, I consider another of the younger officials sometimes listed as an up-and-comer: Moscow region governor Andrei Vorobyov. Why do I not really rate him?

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The essence of podcasting and punditry may be to peddle confident certainties, but often we don’t really know. So today I raise some important questions to which I really don’t know the answer, but which, alas, matter. When will Russians' patience run out? What will the next 'black swan' disruptor be? Would a ceasefire in 2024 benefit Ukraine more than Russia?

The Foreign Affairs article by Emma Ashford and Kelly A. Grieco I cite is here.

The KCL event I mention is here, the programme of the Danish Historical Days is here.

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Russia is still gripped by an egg crisis, after prices rose 46% last year. Now the security apparatus is investigating hoarding and profiteering, the Agriculture Ministry is talking price controls and Lukashenko is having some fun at Putin's expense. At the risk of sounding glib, in this podcast I explain why the crisis explains everything you need to know about Putin's Russia...

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Less whimsical than the last one, the final episode of 2023 looks ahead to the coming year:  the candidates for the presidential elections, the prospects for the war, and - spinning off a deeply-bizarre interview with hawkish academic Sergei Karaganov - whether the Kremlin can find a convincing narrative.

The Karaganov interview is here.

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Was Moscow nuked in 1812? Have a thousand years of history been made up to conceal the power of the 'Russian Horde'? Was Lenin a mushroom? Are reptiloids trying to subvert Russia with Satanism? Of course not: but these -- and many, many more -- conspiracy theories and mobilised falsehoods remain deeply and depressingly prevalent in Russia, and even in a way shape policy. Why? Join me in a meandering exploration of the wild and wacky world of Russian conspiracy theory/

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I felt I ought to cover Putin's combined press conference and online town hall, but it was just so, so boring. And maybe that's the point: tedium weaponised as the new electoral strategy. But what else can we read into the Kremlin's public messaging? To explore that, after some brief thoughts on that 4 hour 4 minute banquet of banality, I delve into the world of Russian tabloids this weekend...

Details of the Global Initiative against Transnational Organised Crime event on Monday that I mention (and a link to download the full report) are here.

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So, surprise, surprise, Putin's standing for re-election. A few thoughts on how it was announced and the vibe around it, before I look at 'Preventing the Next War,' a report from DGAP, the German Council on Foreign Relations, that believes Russia could rearm within 6 years of the end of the war, and that if NATO has not already armed itself to match by then, it would invade. I'm not convinced -- but think it is crucial to have the debate.

The DGAP report is here.

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There's a myth that authoritarian leaders don't have to worry about public politics: arguably they have to worry all the more. Spinning off from the recent bizarre criminalisation of the mythical 'international LGBT movement' and one or more raids on gay clubs, I unpack how I think Putin's political 'offer' to Russians will emerge over the months leading up to presidential elections: social conservatism, a warfighting nation rather than a nation at war, a scapegoated country, but also a 'normal country.'

The Denis Volkov article I mention is here.

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Has hell frozen over? Left Front leading light Leonid Razvozzhaev is backing the inclusion of ultra-nationalist Igor 'Strelkov' Girkin in unofficial 'people's primaries' for presidential opposition candidates. How is the Russian left different from the West's, and why does this make 'red-brown' alliances with the nationalists more plausible and worrying?

And after the break, how some of my writings have been interpreted of some kind of signal of Western willingness to make a deal over Ukraine, and why it's both dangerous and illuminating that every Russian is a closet Kremlinologist.

The article from Top War I discuss is here, my writings in the Sunday Times (for those of you who subscribe) are collected here.

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After looking at a few recent news stories that caught my eye, on everything from the Ministry of Happiness to a surprisingly subversive economic plan, I look at four conventional wisdoms about Putin. He knows what he wants and it never changes. He doesn't have to care about public opinion. He needs the war to go on for ever. He can't be negotiated with. It's not, in my opinion, that they are all outright wrong, but two of them are, and two need more nuance. Without understanding that, we condemn us all to the current status quo so long as Putin is in the Kremlin -- at the very least.

The events I mentioned are at De Balie in Amsterdam on 20 November (details here) and Pushkin House in London on 4 December (details here).

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What can we learn from the ugly anti-Semitic riot at Makhachkala airport? Officially sanctioned, foreign-inspired subversion, a symptom of state failure or societal anti-Semitism? I don't think any of these capture the significance of the incident, but instead it highlights some fundamental challenges for Moscow, and reasons why the North Caucasus is almost uniquely problematic for the regime.

The Moscow Times article by Almut Rochowanski that I mention is here.

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In what sounds more like a scene from Armando Ianucci's Death of Stalin, an anonymous Telegram channel tells us Putin is dead, his body stuffed into deep freeze while Patrushev takes over. Credible? Not really, but that doesn't stop many Western media outlets running with the story. So, why this fascination with Putin's health, why does it matter, and what do I think would happen, if Putin really did die in office?

As a natural follow on, in the second part, I look at PM Mikhail Mishustin's chances of being the successor: his best asset may be his very lack of allies...

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Alexei Navalny has posted a list of 10 questions he thinks all movers and shakers in the Russian (opposition) political scene ought to be asked ahead of the 2024 presidential elections. His questions, and his list of those whom he thinks should answer them, and an interesting bid to remain politically relevant - but also tell us something about his thinking.

On the other end of the political spectrum, uber-hawk Nikolai Patrushev has written an article (available in Russia and a PDF here) which is the best encapsulation yet of his conspiratorial worldview and his idea of how Moscow can assemble a "The Rest vs the West" political coalition. He's wrong.

Two very different men, with very different worldviews. But are there also some telling similarities in their manifestos?

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A quick and early episode looking at what roles and goals - if any - Russia has in the current Hamas-Israel war. The bottom line is that Russia was not behind the terrorist invasion, doesn't really know how to respond, is putting out different and even contradictory messages and yet will taken whatever advantage from it that it can.

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The Russian police are increasingly under pressure. The National Guard is getting into the mercenary game. There is talk (probably empty) of Wagner being reconstituted under Evgeny Prigozhin's son Pavel. These three apparently separate developments all point to the way Putin is not learning the lessons of past mistakes.

In the second segment, another profile of a potential successor to Putin: the fixer-technocrat with the 'Cheshire Cat' smile, Dmitri Kozak.

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The easy cliche that the Ukraine conflict may become a 'forever war' is a convenient notion for Putin - it may help dismay his enemies, and provides an organising principle for 'late Putinism.' To paraphrase the SF game Warhammer 40,000, in the grim darkness of the present, there is only war.

Yet, of course, no war last forever and, in particular, Russians themselves don't seem to be buying this notion. Even government pollsters suggest only a small minority are really enthused by the war - and not even they embrace the idea of war eternal for it's own sake.

I also indulge myself with the first segment in an occasional series of 'Why Everything Bad is Britain's Fault' (at least as far the Kremlin is concerned).

The Fedorov interview I mention is here.

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Is Kadyrov dying? If so, who might replace him - and what may this mean for Russia. If Chechnya again becomes unstable, will Putin be faced with a choice of losing in Ukraine or in Chechnya?

In any case, Kadyrov was one of the first and most successful of Russia's 'conflict entrepreneurs,' able to monetise the threat or actuality of war. The invasion of Ukraine is creating  a whole slew of new conflict entrepreneurs, who will represent not just a constituency with an interest in continued conflict, but also may be being nurtured as the state looks to find a new support base.

The BBC report I mention is here, and the podcast on the Rosgvardiya and its business empire is episode 11, here.

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As a way of getting away from the perennial talk of Wagner and the Ukrainian counter-offensive, I look at current stories relating to six individuals - Dmitri Medvedev, Anton Siluanov, Sergei Surovikin, Sergei Sobyanin, Valentin Konovalov and Sergei Aksenov - and what they tell us about today's Russia, Nepotism, statism, warlordism, and the limits of Kremlin power...

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After looking at Prigozhin last time, this episode I focus on Wagner. Will it survive in Africa (I suspect not), what this may mean for Russia's Africa non-quite-a-strategy, and will we see a 'Wagnerisation' of the Russian military (probably) and society (hopefully not). And why Wagner was like one of the great global football teams...

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What can we say about the death of Prigozhin (beyond good riddance?). At the risk of overstating the case, I feel this is a watershed moment, and Putin's willingness to turn on his own, at the expense of his own promises, is both symptomatic of deep decay in the system and also something that will further undermine it.

The Sunday Times article I mention is here.

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Marking the anniversary of the second day of the 1991 August Coup, the day when momentum began to shift away from the hardliners behind the seizure of power, a look at how the Putin regime - the spiritual descendant of those same plotters - is getting jumpy, cracking down on critics left and right and unable to win the loyalty of society.

An aspect of this, which I explore in the second part, is how a Russian policeman's lot is not a happy one, and not only is Russia not the massively-heavily policed society that is often claimed, but that the expansion of the public order forces at the expense of the regular police is something that may come back to bite the Kremlin.

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He may have just been sentenced to another 19 years, now in a 'special regime colony', but the indomitable Alexei Navalny has just produced a broadside against the 'reformists' of the 1990s - whom he considers nothing of the sort, but instead the architects of kleptocracy and authoritarianism. And it's hard to disagree with that. I go through what is in effect his manifesto, with lots of quotes and also lots of my own marginalia, and conclude by questioning whether Navalny's very purity of purpose may be a problem - and the lessons for the West.

The translation of his article in Meduza is here.

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Can one draw meaningful parallels between the Soviets' 1979-88 war in Afghanistan, and the Kremlin's invasion of Ukraine? The wars may have been very different, but I would suggest there are ways in which the Afghanistan experience helps inform our understanding of the Ukraine war - and above all, how this will affect Russia politically, socially and economically in the future. The good news is that this is one reason why, just as Afghanistan was the Soviet Union's last war, Ukraine should be Putin's.

If anyone is interested, the 'book of the PhD' is Afghanistan: the Soviet Union's last war (Routledge, 1995), while the later book I mentioned digging into the initial seizure of Kabul is Storm-333 (Osprey, 2021).

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Is there a post-mutiny purge of the military going on? What can we learn from the apparent dismissal or detention of figures such as Generals Surovikin and Popov? And what does this mean about the prospects of the war and whether there will be the military coup some seem to be anticipating?

The Dara Massicot (@MassDara) twitter thread I mention starts here.

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There still seems no escaping the fallout from Prigozhin's mutiny, whether we're talking about the fate of Wagner in Africa or those bizarre wig selfies. I take a series of questions from Oligarch/Hetman patrons as a structure to look at what we do - and don't - know at present.

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A shorter episode, because there is still so much about the causes, course and consequences of Prigozhin's mutiny that we still don't know. Instead, I focus in on the spook side: what were the FSB, FSO and GRU doing? To a large degree, the answer is> failing. Will they be taken to account? I doubt it, and this underlines the way that 'late Putinism' is characterised by its refusal or inability to reform.

The previous episode I mentioned looking at Russia's complex mercenary ecosystem is  In Moscow's Shadows 98: Dogs of War (and Racoons).

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Prigozhin's mutiny... or, 36 hours of what-the-hell? It's too close for a really judicious take on this weekend's hijinks, but first thoughts on why Prigozhin did it, what happened, and what this all actually means.

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After the usual quick run-through of war-related news, I consider the rise of mysticism and occultism not just in Putin's circle, but Russia as a whole. Tales of rituals in the Kremlin; the Communist 'battle mage;' predictions of triumph in Ukraine. What is the reason? My view is that it is a response to anomie and despair - but also incubates hope for change, and illustrates a desire for that change. So, however bizarre, it may be grounds for optimism.

The Carnegie article by Ksenia Luchenko I mentioned is here; the FT piece on PMCs here.

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After the inevitable quick look at the Ukrainian counter-offensive (too little to say really about the operation on the ground, but some points to make about the political context), I drill down into the life of Dmitry Patrushev - minister for agriculture and, arguably rather more important, son of Security Council secretary Nikolai Patrushev. Could he be a candidate to succeed Putin, and if so, what would this mean?
 

If Patrushev senior is regarded as one of the grey cardinals, Jr is more of a grey cardigan – undistinguished, unfashionable, yet cosy and comforting for the old men around Putin.
 
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A spat between Wagner's Prigozhin and Chechnya's Kadyrov provides a good opportunity to look at the role of the Chechens in the Ukraine War - or, rather, just how small a role they are playing. Why is that? Because the war is a microcosm of the Putin system in so many ways, and in that system Kadyrov has managed to create a comfortable place in which he loudly performs loyalty while actually exploiting Moscow as far as he can.

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Bakhmut has (probably, kinda) fallen and Belgorod raided. The first is hardly a real defeat for Ukraine nor a real victory for Moscow. The latter may prove more significant, not so much for the raid itself but the dilemmas it imposes on the Russians ahead of the Ukrainian counter-offensive.

In the second half I kick off an occasional series of profiles of the next generation of insider political leaders by looking at Marat Khusnullin, the Deputy Prime Minister in charge of Construction and Regional Development, whose status as a (re)builder could conceivably what Russia will eventually need after Putin.

Anna Arutunyan's Spectator piece I mention is here.

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As a change from the usual, I look through the top six news items currently on the website of Rossiiskaya Gazeta, the main government newspaper of record, on today, Sunday 14 May. What can one learn about the state of Russian politics, intra-elite conflicts, the survival of real journalism and how comfortable Russians are with being global outsiders, based on stories about everything from missile attacks in the Donbas to easier regulations on building sheds?

As websites change, the six stories are:

FT: G7 и ЕС планируют запретить возобновление поставок российского газа

"Фиксируем все разрушения для будущего суда над преступниками": как работает полиция на месте удара крылатыми ракетами Storm Shadow в День ЛНР

В Турции начались президентские и парламентские выборы

Эрмитаж возвращает в Александро-Невскую Лавру раку Александра Невского. Михаил Пиотровский рассказал "РГ" о смысле и условиях передачи раки Церкви
Эксклюзив

В Минстрое разъяснили, почему сараи и бани стало строить проще

Александр Бастрыкин выступил за введение уголовной ответственности для юридических лиц

The episode of the Kennan Institute's The Russia File podcast I mention is here. For Bastrykin's rather more explicit attacks on corruption in the defence-industrial complex, see here.

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It's an easy journalistic shorthand to hall Putin a new tsar (I've done it myself), but what might it mean? Coronation weekend in the UK seems a fitting time to consider the pitfalls for Putinism of its pseudo-monarchic tilt.

In the second part a quickfire look at Ukraine's war of sabotage inside Russia, the incredible shrinking Victory Day parade, and the even more quickly shrinking Prigozhin.

My articles on the drone attack and sabotage campaign are in the Spectator and Sunday Times; the Meduza piece on Mediazona's research about proxy attacks is here.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

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News that gas corporation Gazprom appears to be sponsoring a mercenary unit in Ukraine prompts me to explore the complex ecosystem of Russian private military companies and mercenaries. Not so much the onset of a new era of warlordism, I see it as a reflection of Putin's adhocratic mobilisation state. In the second half, I provide a guide to some of the varies organisations in question, from MOD fronts to ultra-nationalist thugs.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

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Even loyalists seem in some cases to be taking a step back, not for a moment standing against the Kremlin but less able or willing to be so vocal and visible supporting it. I look at four such figures - Alexander Bortnikov, director of the FSB, Dmitry Kiselev, general director of Russia Today, Alexander Bastrykin, head of the Investigatory Committee, and Alexei Dyumin, governor of Tula - and wonder what their different political strategies portend.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

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What can we learn from the massive trove of US secret documents recently and incautiously leaked? And what are the signs that Russia really is digging in, not for a 'Forever War,' but certainly a lengthy one?

The Moskovskii Komsomolets article I mention is here.

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Something for everyone? What we may conclude from the murder of milblogger 'Vladlen Tatarsky', thoughts on the hostage-taking of journalist Evan Gershkovich, the madness of Nikolai Patrushev and a new report on guns in Ukraine.

The Spectator piece I mention is here (paywalled), Patrushev's latest interview is here, the report 'On U.S. Objectives With Respect to the USSR To Counter Soviet Threats to U.S. Security' is here, and our report 'Peace and Proliferation: the Russo-Ukrainian war and the illegal arms trade' is here.

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Spinning off from a recent piece for the Spectator, I look at Dmitri Medvedev's decline and fall, from technocratic liberal hope to peddler of toxic anti-Western vitriol, and what this tells us about late Putinism: the hawkish turn, chameleonic politics, the need for scarecrows and the downside of Putin's loyalty.

The Spectator piece is here

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Isn't it time to scrap the term 'oligarch'? In Russia - as perhaps, not in Ukraine - the time when rich people able to assert power because of their wealth (as opposed to getting wealthy because of their power) seems long gone.

And a justice vs pragmatism question: will the International Criminal Court's decision to issue an arrest warrant against Putin on war crimes charges, help the cause of peace? Sadly, although I don't think there is any doubt he is a war criminal, I fear not.

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Why did Budapest 2023 remind me of Moscow 2007? Are Hungary or China 'pro-Russia'? What can we read into pro-Ukrainian neo-Nazi incursions into Russia and Kadyrov's claims that he wants to set up a mercenary company? And speaking of which, what on earth is PMC Ryodan?

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Putin has finally set a date for his annual address to the Federal Assembly, 21 February. He will likely try to tread the balance between scaring and reassuring his audience, but it takes place at a time when there is evidence of the security state digging in for the long haul, not least with a reshuffle at the Security Council Secretariat.

In the second half, I talk about Russian scifi, especially of the imperialist variety, and what we can learn from it.

For those interested, I write about the Security Council here. Mikhail Suslov's article 'Of Planets and Trenches: Imperial Science Fiction in Contemporary Russia' is here, 

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The apparent hit on a Russian rightist, propagandist, and self-styled "swindler and  mercenary" raises a range of questions about coordination in the Russian forces, the role of Evgeny Prigozhin and Russia's slide back towards the 'wild 90s.' Still, that's a better prospect than Putin's repeated invocation of the 1940s, most recently at the 80th anniversary of the battle of Stalingrad...

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What does it mean that Western-designed tanks will now be supplied to Ukraine, and what - if any - potential responses does Putin have? At the very least, it will be used to hammer home the new notion of the 'New Patriotic War,' in an attempt to provide a rationalisation for totalitarianism. However, any unity imposed is just superficial - as the recent spat between Igor 'Strelkov' Girkin and Evgeny Prigozhin illustrates, there are growing divisions within the system.

The Tsargrad article on Dugin I mentioned is here, the Izvestia one on Petr Pavel is here.

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So what might it mean for Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov to be made the new overall commander of Russian operations in Ukraine? I suspect Putin is impatient for some kind of victory - and if Gerasimov absolutely has to provide it, then he will need to find some form of escalation.

Details of the Chelsea Society event on 16 January I mentioned are here, and the Lewes Speakers Festival event on the 22nd (lots of other interesting authors, by the way) is here.

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A collection of topics: Putin's rather bellicose New Year Address and what to make of it, the limits of Russian politics, what to make of Medvedev's and Prigozhin's bizarre statements, and some good news, especially for those who consider Peruvian shaman to be soothsayers...

The Russian cyber report I mentioned is here, Prigozhin's latest broadside is here, and news of the Peruvian shaman (in Russian) is here.

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Is Putin contemplating fleeing to Venezuela? Is Medvedev more powerful than Patrushev? Does it make sense to decolonise Russia? Is a maverick spook spilling the beans on Putin's personal life? As a lack of hard information on inner Kremlin politics generates rumours and assumptions to fill the data vacuum, I ponder our analytic biases.

The survey of 100 top politicians is here.

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What broader lessons about the changing nature of war, peace and power can we draw from the Russo-Ukrainian conflict? A more conceptual and rambling episode than usual...

The Meduza article on FSO polling I mentioned is here.

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My own contribution to the current discussion about how Putin tries to use and abuse history, and how he doesn't even get Russian history right.

And, after the break, the costs of the war to Russia and the all-too-often overlooked (not least by Putin) regional dimension.

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A fresh batch of Patrons' questions, clustered around Putin, his influences (no, Ivan Ilyin is not his guru) and decision-making; and then in the second half, how are the effects of invasion and sanctions reshaping Russian organised crime?

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In the first part of the podcast, I address the first batch of questions put to me by my Patrons, including Prigozhin's authority and whether Putin really believes some of the increasingly bizarre nonsense that is being spouted by his officials. In the second part, I explore whether Russia might be tempted to follow North Korea in establishing a 'ministry of organised crime.'

Oh, and do buy my new book Putin's Wars!

The ECFR Crimintern report I mention (from 2017) is here.

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In the first segment, I touch on some of the latest news stories: Ukraine's drone attack on Sevastopol and the ending of the grain deal; will Russian withdraw from Kherson; and what Russians think. In the second half, I pivot to exploring the complex intelligence relationship between Russia and China and why, whatever the talk of a 'friendship without limits,' at least in the secret realm they are not frenemies maybe but frivals...

The recording of the talk at George Washington's Institute for European, Russian, and Eurasian Studies I mentioned is here.

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I'm back after a month of travels, and what a month it's been. In this longer-than-usual catch-up episode, I look at its main developments, including annexations, mobilisation, martial law and political machinations. And how Sergei Kirienko admitted that this was not a popular war...

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Military analysts often talk about the way forces seek to 'impose dilemmas' in their enemy on the battlefield. The extraordinary Ukrainian advance from Kharkiv is imposing a series of dilemmas both military and, more importantly, political on Putin. And, faced with a choice of difficult options, none of which look especially palatable, he is doing what he usually does: dodge the hard decisions, dig in and hope things work out.

From tactical nukes and mobilisation to why bother with increasingly transparently rigged elections, a run through the dilemmas and possible responses.

Also, do note that my podcasting in the next month may be pretty limited, but patrons will get regular text updates.

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It's Labo(u)r Day here in DC, so I look at the - pretty poor - state of organised labour in Russia, but also the hints that coming economic pressures could help encourage some solidarity and lateral connections, key to effective civil society.

My post 'Mikroraion Life' in my Travels in Deepest Muscovy blog  on life in Kotel'niki  is here.

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A short, one-segment piece in which I consider one of the less widely-discussed aspects of Gorbachev's legacy (and quite why he sat so uncomfortably for the present regime): that he stood for hope (however naive or badly-executed sometimes) rather than the victimhood at the heart of Putin's message.

My snap appreciation of Gorbachev is here, and Leon Aron's obit is here.

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How far is the Kremlin grappling with the problem of power and relevance: it has made promises, it issues decree, but is it really able to achieve any more at home than in the stalemate in Ukraine? Does Putin's recent decree on expanding the military mean more than just more Potemkin politics? And as a result, are more and more elements of Russian society seeing the regime as incapable, creating a dangerous potential threat?

In the second half, Liz Truss, the UK's likely next prime minister, has vowed that 'Britain will expose Putin’s lies to the world' - I suggest some ways in which London can sharpen and expand its narrative warfare game.

Truss's article in the Telegraph is here; my piece in the Sunday Times is here (there may be paywalls for both), and Francis Scarr of BBC Monitoring's twitter handle is @Francis_Scarr.

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Continuing from last episode, in which I postulate that Russia is now in the grip of 'Putinism-Patrushevism,' I look at what this has meant for Defence Minister Shoigu - and how his return to high-profile public politics suggest he has been forced to adapt to the new era of constant conflict. How can this help illuminate what the ingredients of power in late Putinism may be?

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I play around with the concept of Putinism-Patrushevism, that while Putin's broad ambitions may be pretty consistent over time, quite how they are understood and meant to be achieved varies over time depending on who has most influence with him - and now, sadly, it's Nikolai Patrushev, leading to the current state of the country. (I float this idea in this Sunday Times piece).

The earlier podcast in which I label Patrushev 'the most dangerous man in Russia' is here, by the way.

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The final batch of patrons' and listeners' questions answered - sometimes better than others - on everything from Ekaterina Schulmann's "reverse cargo cult" thesis to the flaws of liberal politics, Naryshkin's fumbles to naval dilemmas in the Ukraine war.

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I look at the career of Igor Girkin, better known as Strelkov, the ultra-nationalist who has turned against Putin - but gets away with it. What does it tell us about Russian politics?

In the second half, I read the coda added to later editions of my book 'We Need To Talk About Putin' to reflect the invasion of Ukraine and expand on a few points in it.

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After tackling three of recent developments worth noting - the evolving military command structure of the war, Sergei Kirienko's role and the emergence of the war economy - I tackle a dozen listeners' questions, from how the conflict is affecting Putin's thoughts about his future, to whether monarchy could return...

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Something of a magazine episode. In the first half I talk about my being banned from Russia (here's the Foreign Ministry announcement), Putin at the St Petersburg International Economic Forum, Lavrov interviewed by the BBC (see more here) and Pertsev's recent article about the elite in Meduza (here).

In the second half, I tackle a range of questions from listeners, broadly about geopolitics.

A reminder, if you have a question you want me to address, send it to me by Monday 20 June, either through the Patreon site if you are a patron, otherwise via the contact form on my blog, here.

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In the first part of this slightly rambling episode, I develop on a theme I covered for the Sunday Times (here) on whether Moscow will move beyond annexing the Donbas and Lugansk People's Republics and actually seek to grab more territories. And why on earth might anything think this a good idea?

One such might be Sergei Kirienko, the first deputy head of the Presidential Administration, who ought to know better but may have his reasons, So in the second half I look at this product of the 1990s.

A reminder, if you have a question you want me to address, send it to me by Monday 20 June, either through the Patreon site if you are a patron, otherwise via the contact form on my blog, here.

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Good news and bad news? Anyway, in the first part I explore what's happening in the Donbas, why it is far too soon to talk of Russia 'winning' and the signs it is digging in for the long haul, and looking for things to call victories.

In the second part, I return to the vexed question of a coup against Putin, and why it is so unlikely - unless and until there is a serious crisis that poses a real threat to elite interests and forces them to make a choice. (And why it matters who has been appointed Minister for Emergency Situations).

The Meduza article I mention is here. I talk a little more about why I don't think we can assume things are going Putin's way in Ukraine in the Telegraph, here.

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When are Russians really going to start feeling the pressure of the shooting war in Ukraine and the economic/political one with the West? I explain why I think September is when they will really start to feel it.

In the second part, I read the coda written for the paperback edition of my Short History of Russia (out now, and a bargain!)

And apologies for some sound issues with background noise, that I could not edit out...

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A week before Victory Day,  I consider some different constituencies' notions of victories. For Patrushev and the hard-liners, they could win politically not despite failing in the war, but thanks to it. Nuclear rhetoric may be scary, but it is also a reflection not of victory but failure. The war and sanctions are reshaping the opportunities in the Russian underworld, and this create new winners and losers. And what does Patriarch Kirill hope to win?

The Moscow Times piece I mentioned is here.

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For an experimental change in format, this episode is given over to a long conversation with Fabian Burkhardt of IOS-Regensburg, who works on Russian elites, institutions and authoritarian politics. He gives his sense on the state and loyalties of the elites, on the chances of any kind of palace coups, and the degree to which we are all flailing around in the fog of (info)war.

As for relevant publications of Fabian's on the topic of the podcast: "Institutionalising Authoritarian Presidencies: Polymorphous Power and Russia’s Presidential Administration" , "Foolproofing Putinism", "The Fog of War and Power Dynamics in Russia’s Elite: Defections and Purges, or Simply Wishful Thinking?"

Useful sources for listeners some of which Fabian used in his prep or mentioned in podcast:

Adam Casey, "Putin Has Coup-Proofed His Regime"

Timothy Frye "Why Regime Change in Russia Might Not Be a Good Idea"

Vladimir Milov "Ugroza perevorota v Rossii. Okruzhenie Putina sposobno na zagovor? FSB, Sovbez, FSO, Genshtab i drugie." [The threat of a coup in Russia. Is Putin's entourage capable to stage a conspiracy? FSB, Security Council, FSO, General Staff and others]

Mark Galeotti "Putin is devouring his children", "Putin’s totalitarian turn"

Stanislav Markus "Meet Russia’s oligarchs, a group of men who won't be toppling Putin anytime soon"

Farida Rustamova "They’re carefully enunciating the word clusterf*ck", "'Now we're going to f*ck them all.' What's happening in Russia's elites after a month of war"

Andrey Pertsev "Blindsided Russia’s top officials were caught off guard by Putin’s war in Ukraine. Many of them want to resign — but can’t.", "Filling the void Putin’s administration no longer hopes to take Kyiv. The Russian president has yet to make a final decision."

Andrei Soldatov and Irina Borogan "Could the Siloviki Challenge Putin?"

Dossier Center "Beseda na doprose. Deistvitelno li arestovan glava 5-i sluzhby FSB" [Interrogation of Beseda. Was the head of the FSB's Fifth Service really arrested?]

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Who is General Dvornikov, the new Russian operational commander for the war in Ukraine? Will Prime Minister Mishustin and the other technocrats be able to prevent the militarisation of the Russian economy? Four scenarios for the war. And why it's all about 'enemies' versus 'traitors' for Putin now...

The piece on Rusich I mentioned is here, and the Telegraph piece is here.

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Another brief and unedited podcast trying to track some of the latest Ukraine-related Russian stories, all distinctly depressing:

- the war crimes of Bucha (and the Kirill Shamiev twitter thread I mentioned is here)

- comparing Ivan the Terrible and Vladimir (Putin) the Pretty Terrible Too

- the dilemmas for ordinary Russians - and why today's support may not be tomorrow's (the Farida Rustamova piece I mention is here)

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A brief and thoroughly unedited look at four particular issues relating to Ukraine:
- the 'new strategy' of concentrating on the Donbas
- where's Shoigu?
- fear and loathing in the National Guard
- a comparison with medieval Lithuania (yes, really)

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Rather than try and follow the day-by-day, I tackle one of the tricky conundra: not just why the Russians have done so badly, but why the Ukraine war hasn't been fought the way the Russian army is meant to fight. My suspicion is that it is what happens when autocracy meets technocracy, and I explain what I mean.

In the second part, I look at the current claims that Colonel General Beseda of the FSB is under arrest and the hints of opening divisions in the security apparatus, as well as the wider question of how we try and make sense of it all in the midst of active information warfare being waged on every side.

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What can one say about the unfolding horror in Ukraine. In this podcast I alight on a few specific issues: Putin's nuclear signalling (at least I hope that's all it is), the idiocy of 'No Fly Zones' in this context, Russian morale, and how, if Putin is re-booting the Brezhnev franchise, this could in the long-term let Russia finally complete its reform process.

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It may well be, as US/UK leaders are saying, that it is too late, that Putin is determined to wage war on Ukraine, but even as we assiduously wargame the potential routes of advance and attack, we should continue to try and peacegame, too, to apply the same imagination to framing any potential settlement. It would be exquisitely difficult and complex, but right up until the tanks cross the border, we ought to try. Today, I try and sketch out some thoughts as to what such a deal - one that does not sell Kyiv down the river - might involve.

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With Schrodinger's War both imminent and unthinkable there is, to be blunt, only so much that can usefully be said about Russia and Ukraine. I start with a few observations on whether insiders are trying to warn Putin off escalation and what it means if Russia does launch a full-scale invasion (in short, welcome the Brezhnevian stagnation and the rule of the hawks), before turning to some listener questions. Specifically, why Russia is so good at hacking the international system, whether it will stay in Syria through 2022 (yes) and whether Bortnikov will retire (also yes).

I talk about putative FSB director-elect Korolev in a piece for Raam op Rusland here, and talked about the debate over recognising the Donbas pseudo-states in this IMS episode.

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I spin a post on the Nezygar Telegram channel out to explore the current uncertain state of play over Ukraine, covering topics from the current US claims of what its intelligence says about both Zelenskyy and Putin to whether recognising the Donbas pseudo-states is being floated in Moscow precisely as an escape route.  In the second segment, I tackle some of the requests for predictions sent in by Patrons and offer what turn out to be some disappointingly unexciting responses.

The article on Minsk II for the Council on Geostrategy is here.

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One of the short bonuses provided to Patrons over the 2021-22 Christmas and New Year season, released generally a month later.

A Christmas tale of villainy and corruption.

There are all kinds of rumours about embezzlement and theft at a state bank, but the directors swear blind that all is fine.

The chief teller is clearly rich beyond his means, and his wife is never seen but that she is dripping with diamonds, but no one sees fit to enquire further.

Eventually, when it turns out that the bank has been plundered into near-bankruptcy, there’s an enquiry, but the chief director of the bank – who incidentally is a close crony of the ruler – is put in charge of the investigating commission.

And this is despite the eye-witness account of his removing bullion from the bank’s vaults as the scandal breaks.

Lo and behold, all the blame is placed on the teller and sundry other small fry, while the directors go scot free.

Sounds like just another tale of modern Russia?

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One of the short bonuses provided to Patrons over the 2021-22 Christmas and New Year season, released generally a month later.

Who is Lt. Gen. Dmitry Mironov? It may prove worth knowing about this bodyguard-turned-governor-turned-presidential-aide, in effect Putin's eyes and ears over the security forces, and now you can spend just 13 minutes and feel that you do! How being a bodyguard and an ice hockey player can be one of the best routes to success in Putin's Russia.

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After the Blinken-Lavrov talks, a brief one-segment podcast with a few thoughts on the current state of the dialogue, the risks of conflict, and the chances that Moscow will formally recognise the Donbas and Lugansk 'Peoples' Republics.'

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One of the short bonuses provided to Patrons over the 2021-22 Christmas and New Year season, released later: usually a month, in this case a fortnight, as I think it's worth hearing early in the year!

I freely admit business is not my area of expertise, so who better to give a quick assessment of what may await in 2022 than Ben Aris, Editor-in-Chief of bne Intellinews (https://www.intellinews.com/) and one of the more grounded commentators on ‘Planet Business.’

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A Russian-led force deploying into Kazakhstan has inevitably had some people talking invasion, some stabilisation. I make no claims to being a Kazakhstan expert and look forward to people who are having the opportunity to work out if this was a coup by President Tokaev against his patron and master Nazarbaev or something else. So instead, I look at the crisis through the Russian lens: why did the CSTO agree to send forces, what are Moscow's interests, and what can we learn from the Russian media messaging?

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To kick off the year, rather than making some grand predictions about Russia, instead I speculate as to what 2022 may offer Putin, Patrushev, Mishustin, Shoigu, Kirienko and Kadyrov. So much will depend on one key decision, whether the system will legitimate itself 'socially' or as a 'fortress.'

The twitter thread on the VTsIOM poll I mentioned is here, and the Riddle 'Key Event of 2021' compilation is here.

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A short, one-segment piece on Russia's proposed new treaties and how, despite what their deputy foreign minister may say, we have to treat them as the basis for some kind of negotiation, and see what comes of it. So long, that is, that we also step up our deterrence, to ensure Moscow has good reason to talk.

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Quite what is Russia's game plan over Ukraine? It seems hard to explain through common sense, so I conduct a thought experiment: what would Putin have to be thinking to believe that a war, with all the consequent and catastrophic political and economic costs, might make sense?

In the second part, I look at some developments in the Russian underworld that suggest that a long nightmare - the prospect of nation-wide mafia wars - might well actually be on the wane.

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Something of a miscellany. First of all, latest thoughts - that turn out to be disappointingly inconclusive - about what's going on with Ukraine.

Then reflections on the appointment of a career cop as the new head of FSIN, the Federal Penitentiary Service, and the prospects for pragmatic reform. (The 2011 blog I mentioned is here.)

Then short and sour comments about the vacuous and dangerous virtue signalling that is the proposed Congressional resolution not to recognise Putin as president “if the autocrat remains in power” after 2024.

And finally, in response to a question from a Patron, observations about how Russians are getting by, and the increased visibility of pawn shops (lombards, in Russian).

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In the first part, a little exploration of MID, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, its decline - and yet why it still ought not to be taken lightly. Then in the second half I look at the current crises in Belarus and Ukraine.

The article by Kadri Liik I mentioned is here, and my earlier 'Free Sergei Lavrov!' article here. I also looked at the Belarus crisis (and why it should not be turned into a 'Putin story') here.

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While still processing a month spent in Russia, I feel that the uniting leitmotif is survivalism, that every sector - from ordinary Russians through the liberal intelligentsia and the bureaucracy, all the way to the Kremlin - are hunkering down, bracing for winter. I explore what this means to each.

Then in the second half I tackle a series of questions sent in by patrons, from whether I felt at risk in Russia (in short: no) to whether you can now get decent parmesan there (in short: yes). If anyone has any other such random questions they'd like me to answer, do send them my way.

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A trip to Tula, 200km south of Moscow, provides a chance to mix a little history and travelogue with some thoughts about what the city reveals about the nature of provincial life, regional politics and the state economy versus the market economy. In the second half, I look at Tula's governor Alexei Dyumin, a former bodyguard to Putin and for some still a potential successor. How much do governors matter?

The travel blog I mention is Travels in Deepest Muscovy, which will later feature a photo-essay or two in Tula.

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Just back to Russia, my first trip since February 2020, and for this podcast I try something different - a random collection of impressions, mainly recorded on the street (so apologies for the often poor sound quality). Normal podcasting will resume shortly!

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Two quite big topics this episode. First of all, the restrictive new rules on 'Foreign Agent' status that, if applied, would make it almost impossible to discuss military, security and even space topics. They are as much about drawing sharper lines - are you with us or against us - as encouraging self-censorship.

Then, after the break, some rumination on 'hybrid war' - why it's not that helpful a term, and why, when we talk about Russia, there is no one notion of 'hybrid war' but three.

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I confess at this stage I couldn't think of much to say about the Russian elections that wasn't obvious, or hadn't been said, so instead I recorded a 'magazine' episode covering a range of other topics:

• Team Navalny's latest video (here), this time on the corruption of Foreign Minister Lavrov, and why the opposition needs a new big idea
• The Zapad-2021 exercises and their political significance (coverage by Mike Kofman here and Konrad Muzyka here)
• Three stories that went under-reported in Russia: on AUKUS, on Putin's health (my Spectator piece is here) and Sputnik V
• Rumours that Sergei Shoigu is being sent to Siberia - in a good way.

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A shorter episode that looks at a vicious criminal's end in a prison riot in Kamchatka, and after talking a little about prison realities in Russia, considers some possible lessons for Russia as a whole.

I mention the vexed issue of police numbers, something I discuss here and here.

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Sometimes it's worth digging into what look like less important stories, to see what lessons the offer about the big picture developments, so I tackle three - who's likely to be the next ambassador to Cape Verde, why airfare hikes contribute to street violence, and why Naryshkin is now claiming to be a long-time mate of Putin's - and see what I can make of them.

For those figures I threw out, the proportions of staff of different Presidential Administration departments estimated to be current or former security officers are:
63% Security Council (SB) Secretariat
28% Foreign Policy Directorate (UVneshP)
19% Expert Directorate (UE)
71% Directorate for Interregional and Cultural Relations with Foreign Countries (UMKSZS),
62% Directorate for Cross-Border Cooperation (UPS)

For the share of one-to-one or one-to-few meetings with the President in 2019:
1% Kostyukov (GRU)
5% Zolotov (National Guard(
5% Kolokoltsev (MVD)
11% Naryshkin
17% Bortnikov (FSB)
23% Shoigu (MoD)
29% Patrushev
9% Other

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There may be a little schadenfreude as America abandons Afghanistan and the Taliban sweep into Kabul, but Moscow is worried, above all about the country's three traditions exports: terror, refugees and opium.

The fate of the Afghan regime - and the way the 1991 August Coup caught the West by surprise - are also reminders of the problems in trying to predict the future...especially when it comes to Russia.

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Having long relied on it as a stalwart of the ‘systemic opposition’, the Kremlin now seems to be treating the Communist Party (KPRF) as if it were a real opposition party. Might this push it into real opposition? I build off a recent piece I wrote in the Moscow Times. The previous podcast I mentioned is here.

And in the second half, I indulge myself musing about occultism in Russian politics, from the search for Shambhala to 'red battle magician.' But is occultism perhaps really the best lens to understand it, after all?

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Is PM Mikhail Mishustin thinking long-term? His vision for Russia seems to be technocratic, maybe even techno-authoritarian, but it is interesting - and maybe implicitly subversive.

In the second half, I look at Russian-Ukrainian relations over the Donbas, public lunacy and private pragmatism. There's all kinds of silliness - including a case Moscow is taking to the European Court of Human Rights - but maybe the very tone actually reflects the resigned pragmatism new Donbas 'curator' Dmitry Kozak is bringing to freezing the conflict.

The Fabian Burkhardt article I mention is here, and my previous podcast on Putin's Ukrainian article is here.

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Another short, single-segment episode, this time looking at 'On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians,' Putin's latest venture into the role of amateur historian (available in English here). Equal parts history, polemic and paranoia, it says more about VVP's state of mind than anything else, in my opinion.

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A brief, single-segment podcast on the distinctive roles of sport for today's Kremlin. Not a topic that I'd usually expect to discuss...

The journal article I mentioned on RT is ‘Russia isn’t a country of Putins!’: How RT bridged the credibility gap in Russian public diplomacy during the 2018 FIFA World Cup' by Rhys Crilley et al, here.

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The main reasons for the annual ritual of Putin's Direct Line phone-in encounter with the Russian people is to allow him to present himself as the caring father of the nation, savvy chief executive and watchful tsar. However, there is also a less-understood dimension: how the Kremlin uses it to gauge the mood of the masses. If it leads to genuine concerns being addressed, even in the name of keeping an authoritarian kleptocracy in power, is that a bad thing?

In the second part, I briefly draw some comparisons - differences but also similarities - between the Soviet and US/Coalition wars in Afghanistan.

The Raam op Rusland article I mentioned is here. The podcast which talks about polling by the FSO is here.

For more on my research on Afghanistan, the book of the PhD is Afghanistan - the Soviet Union's last war (Routledge)

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The Geneva Summit: frankly, as good as one could expect, with Biden offering a shrewd carrot and stick - Russia can feel itself more like a great power, if it plays more by the rules. No step-change breakthrough, but a decent start.

Worse news about the spread of COVID-19 in Russia, and again Putin and the government has gone AWOL, forcing Moscow mayor Sobyanin to take the lead. Why does this happen?

The Baunov article I mentioned is here; you can also read something I wrote about the importance of emotions in handling Putin (I should take full credit for everything that went well in Geneva...) here and an encouraged after-action report by Anna Arutunyan here.

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A bit of a grab-bag: what to make of the continuing crackdown in Russia, is there scope to undermine the cohesion of the security forces in Belarus, should HMS Defender be heading into the Black Sea, and, in the second half, thoughts about the upcoming Geneva Summit between Biden and Putin.

The article by Josh Huminski I mention is here.

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A spur-of-the-moment, off-the-top-of-my-head take on what's going (wr)on(g) in Belarus: the Russian connection or rather the absence of any evidence of one, Lukashenko's motivations, and above all what can be done. We need a strategy, a sense of what we want, and above all to realise that we cannot force change on Belarus but should rather help the Belarusian people generate it.

The article by Leonid Ragozin I mention is here.  For a general take of mine from August of last year that I think still broadly holds up. see here.  On Vakulchik and general Belarusian security politics, I note a short cellcast of mine here. 

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Is the Russian Orthodox Church a spiritual community, a political institution, or a business empire? The truth of the matter is that it has become all three, and I toy with the idea that we should think of it as FGUP RosBog, Federal State Unitary Enterprise 'Russian God'...

In the second half, I note that most of Russia's security chiefs are in their late 60s. Are they going to be allowed to leave when they hit the compulsory retirement age of 70, or will Putin seek to hold onto them? Either has distinct political implications.

The other podcast episodes I mention are: on Naryshkin here, on Putin's reluctance to let people go here, and on Sergei Korolev here (see also this article)

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Today (9 May) is Victory Day, and the sad truth is that this also inevitably means claims and counter claims of 'memory wars' over the Great Patriotic War. So what can and should we do about this?

And in the second part, a little historical vignette: how was the Kremlin fortress protected during WW2? The answer is by hiding it in plain sight.

The Henry Jackson Society event convened by Dr Jade McGlynn that I mention is here, and the previous Victory Day podcast is here. If you want to read Putin's speech, it's here.

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A mysterious glitch silenced the first, Navalny-related part of this podcast. This has now been fixed, and the full, uncensored version is now up - should now be up.
 
From why the Kremlin fears Navalny to what Patrushev believes and whether Hungary is a Russian proxy, I reply to a selection of patron's questions.

The articles I mentioned are my take on 'post-post-modern authoritarianism' in the Moscow Times here and Patrushev's interview in Argumenty i Fakty here.

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A personal and unpolished snap response to the news that the Czech government is expelling 18 Russian diplomat-spies after an investigation linked the GRU's Unit 29155 - and the infamous 'Petrov and Boshirov' of Salisbury novichok fame - with the explosion at an arms depot in 2014 that killed two. And I touch on how this may help Prague adopt more of a leadership role in Central Europe, another of my hobbyhorses...

There are previous articles of mine on the 2020 'ricin case' here and President Zeman's Russophilia here.

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Why is there this talk of Russia as a 'declining power' - and is it true? I'd suggest we ought to use the term with caution, not least as we are all declining...

The Saradzhan and Abdullaev piece I mentioned is here.

In the second part, I take a silly survey that claimed to find that Putin is Russia's most handsome man and combine it with criminal slang and plastic pop music to speculate about power versus legitimacy...

Oh, and if you want more of that song (gods have mercy on your soul), the full video is here.

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Rumours that Zhirinovsky is going to step down from leadership of the Liberal Democratic Party look more credible these days, and oligarch Oleg Deripaska is even being mooted as a successor. So, it's time for a bit of an exploration of the LDPR, what it stands for, what role it plays, and where it might go.

After the break, I take a quick look at a story in Znak on police procurement (here) and the Amazing Activities of the Singular Bastrykin. I talk about Korolev in this cellcast and in this article.

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Who are the main 'siloviki' or 'men of force,' the heads of Russia's security structures? In response to a request from a patron, I give a run-through of the people and their prospects.

Relevant other IMS episodes I mention are on Shoigu (here), Naryshkin (here) and Patrushev (here).

And then after the break, I take a quick look at Biden's "killer" comment, how it was received, and what it might - or might not - mean.

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All the Ms. First of all, as a counter to the understandable pessimism about Russia at the moment, I look at some of the aspects of Moscow that still make me marvel, and consider how they offer signs of long-term (which really means post-Putin) hope for Russia as a whole.

And then after the break, we have mob murder, as the newly-opened case of the 2009 murder of old-school gangster Vyacheslav 'Yaponchik' Ivankov says something not just about the decline of the traditional criminal 'vory v zakone' but also how the Kremlin tries to manage the underworld balance of power. (I talk about this wider issue much more in my book The Vory)

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A short. 'one act' special: with the news (still unconfirmed) that Navalny is being sent to IK-2 penal colony in Vladimir region, I look at the prison, and what that may mean for him.

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With Navalny in prison, the opposition mobilising, and the state cracking down, what will happen next?

The only honest answer anyone can give is "no idea." So instead of trying to make predictions, I instead offer up a variety of scenarios, to illustrate the range of possibilities and also highlight some specific issues we need to bear in mind.

In the second part, I build off a piece In wrote in the Spectator and address the question of whether 'Iron Felix' Dzerzhinsky will be returning to Lubyanka Square - or at least his statue - or if Alexander Nevsky will doom him to perpetual exile.

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It's a deliberately provocative title, I know, but how might the 'Navalny effect' impact late Putinism? A swing towards blunt and uncompromising authoritarianism? A genuine 'reform that you may preserve' conservative reformulation? The truth is likely to be something between the two, but it is worth considering that even if Navalny is not successful in bringing genuine democracy to Russia - we'll have to see - he may nonetheless improve ordinary Russians' lot.

In the second half, quite why did the Kremlin deliver such a kicking to EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell?

The articles I mention are this from The Bell (in Russian), and this from BNE Intellinews.

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Yesterday saw major protests all across Russia, a genuine success for Team Navalny. But now what? My rough and uncurated first thoughts...

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Another short 'cellcast', though given its timeliness, going public straightaway.

In this cellcast, recorded on 18 January 2021, I take a very speculative, un-thought-through look at the Kremlin's options for dealing with Navalny now he is once again in its hands as of last night...

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The FSO, the Federal Protection Service (or Federal Guard Service) is more that just Putin's dark-suited bodyguards, or the goose-stepping soldiers at the Eternal Flame. In my latest exploration of Russia's security community, I look at these 'watchers of the watchers' who even do their own opinion polling. (The Meduza article I reference is here.)

In the second part, I look at the opposition's concerns about Trump's twitter ban, an interesting study of electoral politics by Andras Toth-Czifra and a piece in Nezavisimaya gazeta, and look for some optimism...

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So Russia has a new laser system, called Peresvet. Pere-who? This gets me talking, for the last of the Twelve Days of Shadowy Christmas cellcasts, about the battle of Kulikovo in 1380 - and why it matters in 2021.

(It is, by the way, a bit of a fascination for me, and if you're interested you can find more about it in my book Kulikovo 1380: the battle that made Russia)

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How did Defence Minister Shoigu make it from graduating from Krasnoyarsk Poly as a construction engineer to being discussed as a potential future president? In this third cellcast of the 2020-21 Twelve Days of Shadowy Christmas, I give my quick take.

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How might a scandal from 2019 affect who runs the FSB in 2021? And should we consider levels of elite embezzlement a good index of their confidence? In this second cellcast of the 2020-21 Twelve Days of Shadowy Christmas, I take a look at the agency's future.

One erratum, by the way, that serves me right for trying to convert big numbers on the fly: the 120 billion rubles I mention at one point is, of course, £120 million, not £12 million...

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Today in 1979, Afghanistan was waking up under Soviet domination. In this first cellcast of the 2020-21 Twelve Days of Shadowy Christmas, I pull out three aspects of that conflict of relevance today.

The Levada poll I mention on Navalny, by the way, is here. And if anyone is interested in my PhD on the impact of the war, the book-of-the-thesis is Afghanistan: the Soviet Union's last war (1995), and I have a book on Operation Storm-333 coming out this March from Osprey.

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More on the Navalny case, the story that keeps unfolding, following the publication of his conversation with one of his would-be killers, and a rumination on whether there will be implications for the FSB and its approach. Then, as a reminder that Russia also has competent spooks, I turn to the recently-revealed and massive hack of largely US systems. Is this really a 'cyberattack,' as so many in the US are saying, and why does this terminology matter?

You can read the Navalny conversation here, and the article I mention by Soldatov and Borogan here.

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An impressively detailed investigation by Bellingcat and The Insider meticulously details the Russian Federal Security Service operation against Alexei Navalny, so here is a short podcast episode devoted to this case and some implications.

The report is available here, and Navalny's video on it here. My hot take in the Moscow Times is here, any my October piece about General Smirnov is here. Finally, I discussed the poisoning through the prism of 'hybrid war' in this article.

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Is there life in the Communist Party, and any chance of it again becoming an opposition party, maybe even in some kind of entente with Alexei Navalny? My thoughts.

And in the second part, I highlight three quirky stories that caught my eye, on presidential nicknames, on misleading ratings, and on life after high politics.

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Another short 'cellcast', going out directly to my Patrons, and to everyone else a week later.

In this cellcast, recorded on 24 November, I look at the Orthodox, nationalist businessman Konstantin Malofeev and his new Tsargrad political party. In and of itself, it will not really become a threat to the Kremlin - nor is it meant as such - but the rise of nationalist politics not stage-managed and initiated by the system is an interesting sign of the times and a potential problem for the future.

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An introduction to the Russian underworld and, especially, three problematic concepts - the 'honest thief,' the 'thieves' world' and the 'mafia state' - to kick off a series of segments about aspects of Russian criminality. And in the second part, why the rest of Russia doesn't share Ramzan Kadyrov's hostility to Captain America.

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After a few very brief observations on the US elections and the implications of a Biden presidency, a look at the SVR, its operations, role, culture and political ambitions of its director, Sergei Naryshkin (which I also discuss here). Then, in the second part, I take apart the rumours about Putin's supposed imminent resignation for reasons of ill-health - and muse on why we still have to listen to silly rumours.

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Another short 'cellcast', going out directly to my Patrons, and to everyone else a week later.

A rant, plain and simple. Sparked by the article 'The Narcissism of The New York Times’ Foreign Coverage' in the magazine The Tablet (you can read it here), I grumble intemperately about Western - and yes, primarily US - coverage of Russia. That's certainly not to say all US coverage of Russia is problematic, nor that the pathologies I talk about are exclusively American. But still...

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In the first In Moscow's Shadows to have a guest, I talk to Anna Arutunyan, analyst and writer on Russia (her The Putin's Mystique is well worth a read if you don't already know it) on her recent article in Foreign Affairs (here) on Russia's proposed anti-interference pact, and the question of sanctions and command and control of Moscow's meddling in general. In the second part, we talk about her new book project, on Russia's war in the Donbas and the challenge of balancing what is Kremlin policy and what it initiative on the ground.

Sadly, sound quality did suffer - especially with the intrusion of a helicopter at one point - but so it goes...

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Russia has long considered the so-called 'Near Abroad' of post-Soviet states to be its sphere of influence. But does it really have the will to assert hegemony? I'd suggest that it does not, in a whistle-stop tour from Belarus to Central Asia.

In the second part, I look at some books that are new, or new to me, and think are worth highlighting:

• Tom Burgis, Kleptopia (William Collins, 2020)
• Gordon Corera, Spies Among Us (William Collins, 2020)
• Martyn Whittock, The Secret History of Soviet Russia's Police State (Robinson, 2020)
• James Pearce, The Use of History in Putin's Russia (Vernon Press, 2021*)
• Donald Ostrowski & Marshall Poe (eds), Portraits of Old Russia (ME Sharpe, 2011)

* No, not a typo. Don't ask me, but trust me, I have no time machine)

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Sergei Naryshkin, the director of the Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) and chair of the Russian Historical Society, has been a busy man this past week, involving himself in everything from Belarus to Medieval Tula (and schmoozing with Putin's ex-bodyguard in the process). Why the sudden desire to be in the media? Generally, when people like Naryshkin lay out their stall, it's because they think there's a reason.

A short 'cellcast' which went out to Patrons on 29 September, and publicly a week later.

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I take a general look at Russian military intelligence, the fearsome GRU (OK, GU for purists), what it is and does and what it isn't and doesn't...

And in the second part, I consider why it seems so hard for some people - Surkov, Levrov, and others - to leave government service. Why is it so hard to say goodbye?

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A short cellcast 'mini-podcast' released in this case simultaneously to Patrons and publicly. Recording this was, frankly, triggered by exasperation that so many were leaping aboard the 'Question More' bandwagon about the Navalny poisoning and following in the twisty and toxic trail of the Russian state propagandists in desperately trying to poke holes in the story rather than accepting that sometimes the truth really is as it seems to be.

On a personal note, yes, we need always to be careful and inquiring consumers of the official line, but the eagerness with which some have sought to undermine the accounts of the German government and Navalny's team has depressed me. To question may seem like a virtuous act, to test the official narrative, but it can also be corrosive, contributing to the Kremlin's efforts to create the sense that the truth is impossible to reach and thus not worth pursuing.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. 

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What is going on with Putin and his regime? Less of a distinct answer to that question, and more a pondering of what we can read into the mishandling of a series of recent events, from the Navalny poisoning to Belarus, I discuss why I think Russia is likely at a crossroads, but one where I am unsure where the roads necessarily lead...

And after the break, I riff off the widespread practice of plagiarising dissertations and consider where it came from and what wider lessons one can learn. What links Putin's Candidate of Science thesis, the COVID-19 vaccine, and gangster hierarchies?

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. 

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Released on 6 September to Patrons, public release later. A snapshot of the three key figures within Belarus's security structures: the new head of the KGB, the Interior Minister and the (newish) Defence Minister

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Trying (it turns out in vain) to avoid the present inevitable concentration on Navalny and Belarus, I discuss two forms of power. What the creation and current role, status and business activities of the National Guard tell us about Russian politics (and economics). And, in response to questions from Patron Callum Christie, quite why the Kremlin is so determined to believe the EU has no real power, no real relevance, maybe even no real existence...

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. 

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What makes Alexei Navalny so dangerous for Putin's regime? This short 'cellcast' was provided to patrons of the podcast (https://www.patreon.com/join/InMoscowsShadows) on 22 August 2020, and general access a week later.

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Rumours abound amidst the Belarusian revolution. Why do I think that's a particular problem now? Because, as it looks like the revolution is moving from its protest to politics phase, the scope for information operations on every side gets all the greater - and their potential impact all the more dangerous.

The Raam op Rusland article I mention is here.

This is one of the short 'cellcasts' offered as an early bonus for Patrons of the podcast (www.patreon.com/inmoscowsshadows) and usually released publicly a week later. However, given the situation I'm issuing it early...

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Belarus is in turmoil. Why did Lukashenka award himself such an implausible 80% of the vote> How does Moscow see the current crisis, and what might it do about it? 

This is one of the short 'cellcasts' offered as an early bonus for Patrons of the podcast (www.patreon.com/inmoscowsshadows) and usually released publicly a week later. However, given the situation, and at the suggestion of several public-spirited Patrons, I'm issuing it early...

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The release of a long-awaited report on Russian influence in the UK provides a chance to look at why Moscow tries - and often fails - to exert influence, and why the Kremlin seems to default to aggressive, bullying words and deeds. Be warned, I spend more time on my soap box in this episode than I should.

For my other writings on this report:
'The weakness of the Russia report' - a quick response in The Spectator
'The ISC’s Russia Report Offers More Critiques of the Intelligence Community than Solutions' a commentary for RUSI
'The UK must urgently adapt to Russia's 'dark power' tactics' a Telegraph piece focusing on the obvious
'Lebedev’s Peerage Highlights London’s Need to Address Russian Influence' for the Moscow Times
'TEN SUGGESTIONS FOR A ‘RUSSIA STRATEGY’ FOR THE UNITED KINGDOM', a lengthier and presumptious set of prescriptions, in War On The Rocks

The Arutunyan article in Foreign Affairs I mentioned is here, the Levada poll is summarised here.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.