Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart

When today's guest was last on this program back in May, she made the somewhat heretical prediction that when the Fed started cutting interest rates, it would set off a chain of events that were likely to prove more restrictive than its tightening policy. Well, here we are 6 months later, and the Fed has indeed started cutting interest rates and yet longer duration bond yields and mortgage rates are....higher?? So, is her prediction coming true? To find out, we're fortunate to welcome Cameron Dawson, Chief Investment Officer at NewEdge Wealth, back to the program today. We'll also hear her market outlook, as stock bulls are clearly in risk on mode right now. Cameron thinks they may continuing stampeding higher for a while.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #bullmarket #volatility #interestrates

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BUY THE REPLAY of the full Thoughtful Money conference here at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference Well, the Fall Thoughtful Money conference was held online this past weekend and I’m delighted to say the event was a real success. That was due primarily to the amazing line-up of speakers who presented and took live audience Q&A throughout the insight-packed 9 hour day. Lacy Hunt delivered the keynote, followed by Stephanie Pomboy, Fred Hickey, Thomas Hoenig, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Michael Pento, Michael Lebowitz, Steven Bavaria, Brent Johnson, Lyn Alden, Melody Wright, Rick Rule, Lance Roberts, New Harbor Financial and Jonathan Wellum. For those of you who didn’t attend, I thought you’d enjoy hearing some of the conference highlights. And for details on the New Harbor event in Concord, MA on Oct 24th, go to https://newharborfinancial.regfox.com/the-new-harbor-summit-new-england #recession #interestrates #marketcorrection --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

Pretty much every poll shows the economy remains the #1 voter issue in the upcoming US presidential election. Many of these same polls show immigration and border security as the second most important issue. Concerned by reports of a surge of undocumented immigrants crossing the border illegally in recent years, many voters worry about the economic, social and political implications of this wave of bodies, and wonder if America can effectively absorb & afford them. I recognize this is a quite sensitive topic, one that some would say is outside of the purview of this channel. But this issue does have important economic implications, and from what I hear from viewers, many regular Americans feel they just don't have a good sense of the facts on this situation. So that's why I'm sitting down today with Dr Steven Camarota, who serves as the Director of Research for the Center for Immigration Studies (CIS), a non-partisan Washington, D.C.-based research institute that examines the consequences of legal and illegal immigration on the United States. We're going to do our best to lay out the facts of the situation at our borders, in as non-partisan, respectful and impartial a manner as possible #illegalimmigration #bordersecurity #immigration 0:00 Context For The Discussion 7:00 How The Legal Immigration System Works (And Doesn't) 21:01 How Big Is The Flow Of Illegal Immigrants? 26:50 Why Do We Grant Illegals Work Authorization? 31:04 How "Remain In America" Works 40:08 Will Illegals Impact Future US Elections? 44:28 Why Allow *Any* Illegal Immigration Vs Expanding Legal Immigration? 47:37 Charts Visualizing The Recent Surge In Illegal Immigration 1:01:15 Education Level Differential Between Legal & Illegal Immigrants 1:07:49 Are Illegals Taking Jobs From Working US Citizens? 1:20:20 Can The US Afford To Absorb The Current Volumes Of Illegals? 1:26:23 What Is The Crime Risk From Illegals? 1:35:59 Are Mass Deportations Feasible? 1:40:00 What Reforms To Our Immigration System Would Be Wise To Consider? --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

Bullish signals were everywhere this week. The S&P broke above it rising wedge. It retested support & then made new highs. And buy signals on both a daily and a weekly basis have been recently triggered. All this bodes well for a strong end to the year, predicts portfolio manager Lance Roberts...except that in the immediate term, stocks are looking overbought and some sort of pullback feels warranted. Lance and I talk about this potential run-up into the end of the year, as well as rising liquidity, credit spreads, earning estimates, volatility and much more in this week's Market Recap. BUY THE REPLAY of the Thoughtful Money Fall Online Conference at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference #liquidity #volatility #bullmarket --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

When today's guest was on this channel back in March, he explained that rising net liquidity was responsible for the surprisingly strong performance seen in both the economy & the financial markets over the past 2 years. And he predicted that these net liquidity inflows would continue, leading to even higher asset prices ahead. Well, here in the final quarter of Q4 2024, things so far have played out according to his script. So will the good times continue into 2025? Maybe not, says Michael Howell, founder & CEO of Crossborder Capital. He sees good change the liquidity tide could start receding as debt refinancings suck capital from the system. As a result, he thinks 2025 will be a MUCH bumpier ride for investors (and 2026 likely even worse). WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #liquidity #debtcrisis #bearmarket --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com Banking expert Chris Whalen fears the Federal Reserve cut interest rates too soon. As a result inflation will remain sticky, the Fed will likely be forced to start expanding its balance sheet soon, and that mortgage rates will rise back above 7% #mortgagerates #interestrates #federalreserve --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

The past few years have been full of surprises, often going the exact opposite way that Wall Street expected at the start of each year. Well, as we prepare to enter 2025, and with it a new US presidential administration I might add, it helps to tap the expertise of those investors who have been around the longest and been the most successful. High on that list is Jim Rogers, legendary international investor, financial commentator and author of several best-selling books on wealth-building. Jim is concerned that history is clear about the path we're taking. First, the debt starts to run out of control. That leads governments to try to contain the contagion with currency exchange controls. As those fail, countries fall into a full-blown debt crisis. And ultimately, that results in a currency crisis that wipes out purchasing power. Will we avoid that fate? WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #debtcrisis #commodities #goldprice --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

In 2024 so far, stocks have had one of the best years in decades. And that's on top of a great year in 2023. Bulls are obviously cheering this, but how long can the party continue? Stocks are richly priced here. And if earnings don't start growing aggressively, at some point, prices will have to correct, warns portfolio manager Lance Roberts. That said, a new buy signal just got triggered this week (invalidating last week's sell signal). So investors need to determine how much risk they want to take to pursue upside from here vs the growing risks of overvaluation. Lance and I discuss this, as well as this week's new inflation data, bonds and the wisdom of Howard Marks in this week's Market Recap. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #bullmarket #inflation #technicalanalysis --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

2023 was the year of the recession that wasn't. 2024 is looking to be the year of the hard landing that wasn't. How is 2025 shaping up to look like? For guidance we turn to highly-respected economist & award-winning researcher David Rosenberg, founder & president of Rosenberg Research. David is very concerned that investors, especially the 70 million Baby Boomers, are "all in" the markets. Boomer portfolios are 60% allocated to stocks. David thinks it should be half(!) of that. He predicts that when we enter a bear market next -- which he thinks is nearer than most expect -- a brutal consumer recession will ensue. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #bearmarket #recession #deflation --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

2024 has been a good year for the bulls. And with the world's largest economies now back into easing mode, both monetarily and fiscally, does that mean 2025 will be another winning year for the longs? To help us find out, as investors have a lot riding on the answer, we have the good fortune of speaking with investor and analyst Bill Fleckenstein of Fleckenstein Capital. Bill is watching bond yields very closely now, as he suspects they are starting to revolt against the Fed's rate new rate cutting plans. He's been waiting for years for the moment when bond investors lose confidence in central planners' ability to tame inflation as well as reign in deficit spending. Bill thinks we might have just reached that point. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #bonds #interestrates #bearmarket --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

Gold has been one of the best performing assets in 2024 so far. It's up over 27% since the start of the year and recently hit a record high. And with the central banks of the worlds largest economies -- the US, China and the EU -- now all cutting interest rates, will that add further fuel to gold's breakout? For answers to all things gold, silver and the companies that mine them, we're fortunate to speak with Brien Lundin, CEO of Jefferson Financial, publisher of GoldNewsleter.com and producer of the excellent New Orleans Investment Conference. Brien thinks that, if this current gold bull cycle acts like previous ones in history, that should bring the price of gold eventually up to $6,000/oz (or higher) REGISTER FOR BRIEN'S CONFERENCE at https://neworleansconference.com/tm1 #goldprice #silverprice #preciousmetals --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

While there is a "tsunami" of liquidity currently flowing that can power stocks higher into year end, in the near term, stocks are looking over-bought and a (short-term) sell signal was triggered this week says portfolio manager Lance Roberts. So between now and the election, be prepared for stocks to trade sluggishly and/or weaken. Other than that, though, the developments this week have been largely favorable for the economy. Very strong jobs numbers (if we can believe them), a resolution to the longshoremen strike that threatened to paralyze ports along the US Gulf and East coasts, and a potential resumption of student loan forgiveness. We talk about all that and more, including Lance's firm's latest trades, in this week's Market Recap. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #jobsreport #liquidity #bearmarket --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

While much of Wall Street's focus over past recent years has been on the Big US Tech stocks, aka the Magnificent 7, there are an increasing number of seismic developments happening internationally investors need to be aware of. For example, emerging market stocks have positively trounced tech stocks since June. And to name just a few others: - China is now firing i's monetary and fiscal bazookas with gusto. - India is now the world's fastest growing major economy & its stock market is booming. - Japan just elected a new prime minister whose hawkish policies might end the yen/dollar carry trade. - And of course, the escalation of hostilities in the MiddleEast threaten to inject a lot more uncertainty into geopolitical and global trade. Which international trends are the most important for investors to track? What are the biggest risks? And where are the biggest opportunities? To better understand the situation from a non-US perspective, we're fortunate to welcome back to the program Louis Gave, Founding Partner and CEO at Gavekal. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #emergingmarkets #chinastocks #carrytrade --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

An interview with RANE's Middle East geopolitical analyst to address: - The drivers of tension between Iran and Israel - What led to Tuesday's missile attack? - What do you expect to happen from here? - What impact is this conflict having on the global economy & financial markets? - If things escalate, how concerned should those living in the West be? - What will it take to de-escalate the situation? Ryan will take live audience Q&A near the end of the interview WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #israel #iran #worldwar3 --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

I often emphasize that the most useful people to interview are asset managers. Because they don't have the luxury of merely having an opinion on the road ahead -- they have to commit capital to their convictions, and be judged upon the results. Today we have the great fortune of having a second appearance of one of the most respected capital allocators in the business: Jan van Eck Jan is CEO of vanEck, an asset management firm with over $100 billion in assets under management invested across its wide family of ETFs and funds, spanning equity, bond, commodity, digital and regional asset classes. As we did last quarter, Jan and I will spend the next hour discussing his latest macro and market outlooks, as well as where he sees the biggest opportunities for investors right now. Follow Jan at https://vaneck.com/ Or on x/Twitter at @janvaneck @janvaneck Or on LinkedIN athttps://www.linkedin.com/in/janfvaneck/ SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #chinastocks #china #interestrates --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

Few things are more valuable in life than the food we eat and the soil that grows it. So today, we have the great honor of talking with Joel Salatin. Named "the most famous farmer in America", Joel has spent his career advocating for sustainable farming practices, and pioneering models that show how food can be grown & raised in ways that: - are regenerative to our topsoils - are more humane to livestock - produce much healthier, tastier food - contribute profitably to the local economy Who wouldn't want that? Well, the government and Big Ag for starters. Joel refers to himself a "lunatic farmer" because so many of the changes he thinks our food systems need are either illegal under current law or mightily resisted by the deep-pocketed corporations controlling production and distribution. But that doesn't stop him from his passion of inspiring others to take a better path. He co-owns and operates, with his family, Polyface Farm in Swoope, Virginia. Featured in the New York Times bestseller Omnivore’s Dilemma and award-winning documentary Food Inc., the farm services more than 5,000 families, 50 restaurants, 10 retail outlets, and a farmers’ market with produce and pastured beef, pork, poultry, as well as forestry products. On the farm, Joel and his staff pilot new practices, mentor young farmers, educate the public, and produce an excellent set of workshops for those looking to truly 'get their hands dirty' learning how to farm sustainably. He's a true hero to many, including me. And I predict he'll be one of yours, too, by the end of this discussion. SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #farming #foodproduction #sustainablefarming --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

In the wake of interest rates cuts now coming from the Federal Reserve, the ECB and the Bank of China, could the stock market experience a melt-up to S&P 600 -- or higher -- by the end of the year? Portfolio manager Lance Roberts thinks it's quite possible, especially given stocks' recent technical breakout. We talk in depth about that in this week's Market Recap, as well as the latest inflation data (PCE), the recent revisions to GDP, GDI and personal savings, and the continued risk to the Yen/Dollar carry trade now that a more hawkish Japanese Prime Minister has been elected. ONLY 48 HOURS LEFT TO LOCK IN THE EARLY BIRD DISCOUNT for the Thoughtful Money Fall Online Conference by registering now at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference #bullmarket #S&P6000 #interestratecut --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

The real money in investing is made by those who perceive what the markets are likely to do tomorrow, and then position themselves today to profit from that future action. Today's guest, Lakshman Achuthan, co-founded the Economic Cycle Research Institute specifically to identify these key turning points for investors. Which key turning points are in play right now? And how can we best take advantage of them? Let's find out. LESS THAN 1 WEEK LEFT TO LOCK IN THE EARLY BIRD DISCOUNT for the Thoughtful Money Fall Online Conference by registering now at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference #recession #softlanding #economy --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

The US housing market remains in uncharted territory. Median -- not average -- existing home prices hit another all-time high last month, yet transaction volumes are at lows not seen for decades. And potentially changing the game from here is that mortgage rates are likely headed downwards now that the Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates. We're also seeing inventory starting to surge in an increasing number of regions. What does this all mean for home prices as we head into 2025? Will we ever return to a "normal" market again? And what would "normal" look like from here? To find out, we welcome housing analyst Nick Gerli, founder of reventure Consulting and creator of the new reventure app back to the program.

ONLY 1 WEEK LEFT TO LOCK IN THE EARLY BIRD DISCOUNT for the Thoughtful Money Fall Online Conference by registering now at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference

#housingmarket #homeprices #mortgagerates

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In many ways, investors are dealing with a lot of conflicting signals right now. It seems that nearly every day, we're seeing signs that the consumer is weakening under the high cost of living, yet financial markets are back trading at all-time highs. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve is telling us the economy is strong, yet it just cut interest rates by 50 basis points, a move we typically only see during times of extreme stress. So..which is it? Should we be preparing for better or worse conditions ahead? To find out, we turn to the experience and wisdom of financial advisor Ted Oakley, managing partner & founder of Oxbow Advisors. Ted has over 40 years experience helping clients, mostly high net worth families, protect and build wealth through good times and bad. We'll find out how he's currently positioning his clients assets for the coming year. ONLY 1 WEEK LEFT TO LOCK IN THE EARLY BIRD DISCOUNT for the Thoughtful Money Fall Online Conference by registering now at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference #bearmarket #recession #investing --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

The Fed dropped the Federal Funds Rate by 50 basis point this week, ushering in a new monetary regime. Investors need to the know that the playbook has changed. Delivering what sounded like a "mission accomplished" press conference this week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is projecting confidence that inflation is nearly beaten, unemployment remains low, and economic growth is solid. He doesn't see recession as a visible threat here. So has the Fed indeed achieved a soft landing? Or... is the large rate cut a sign the Fed is actually worried it's already behind the curve? I discuss this with portfolio manager Michael Lebowitz. He suspects the Fed is worried, and for certain he thinks that the switch to cutting rates has changed the rules for investing. In his words: now is the time to re-evaluate what you own. How will it perform in a era of falling interest rates? For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this Weekly Market Recap. ONLY 1 WEEK LEFT TO LOCK IN THE EARLY BIRD DISCOUNT for the Thoughtful Money Fall Online Conference by registering now at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference #interestrates #inflation #recession --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

There's a lot of change in the air right now: in the economy, the markets, and of course with the fast-approaching US election. There's so much change currently underway that today's guest titled his latest report: The Macro Winds Are Shifting. How exactly? What will the likely repercussions be? And how should investors consider positioning intelligently today for where the puck is headed? For guidance, we're fortunate to speak today with Jesse Felder, founder & Editor of the respected market research firm: The Felder Report. Follow Jesse at https://thefelderreport.com/ or on X/Twitter at @JesseFelder WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #recession #earnings #marketcorrection --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

Portfolio manager & Fed-watcher Axel Merk shares his immediate take-aways from this week's FOMC release and press conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell. He also takes live Q&A from viewers. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

We're going to do something a little different in today's video. This Thoughtful Money channel is all about wealth-building. So makes sense that we focus most of our attention on money. But money is a means to an end. It's not an end in and of itself. No one's goal in life is to die atop a big pile of cash -- instead we hope to use our money to better enjoy the things that really feed our souls. As those who live to be 100 years old tell us, true wealth, the things that really matter in life, are a function of the following three things: fulfilling relationships, purpose and health. So, as a number of you have asked for, I'm going to periodically interview experts on these key topics. And today we're going to focus on what makes for successful happy relationships. To help us understand what makes or breaks the important relationships in our lives, I've invited a professional marriage & family therapist today. Ashley is a licensed MFT, trained in Emotion-Focused Therapy (otherwise known as EFT) and the Gottman Method of couples therapy -- Drs John & Julie Gottman we're made famous by Malcolm Gladwell's coverage of them in his book "Blink" describing how they could predict with near 90% accuracy whether or not a couple will remain together after interviewing them for only 3 minutes. In her California practice, Ashley deals with clients from all backgrounds, many of whom are Silicon Valley power-couples, though she also sees her fair share of rural farmers. I would be remiss if I didn't also acknowledge that Ashley is my wife. So I can personally vouch for both her professional credentials as well as the effectiveness of the strategies for conflict resolution she'll share with us in today's discussion. Because we have put plenty of them to use in our own marriage -- which just celebrated its 24th anniversary last week.

HAVE QUESTIONS FOR ASHLEY? You can contact her at https://taggartrelationships.com/ #relationships #therapy #mentalhealth

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As today's guest rightfully often repeats "Energy is life" Without it, there is no economy. No means to power the systems society depends on. And, like it or not, the world still runs on hydrocarbons -- most especially oil. Well, oil is in an interesting place right now. It's starting to become cheap again. After trading near $120/barrell following the Russian embargo ensuing from the war in Ukraine, it's now nearly half that -- trading at $67/barrel the day of this recording. New technologies are creating oil substitutes from natural gas condensates. And the OPEC cartel, which has exerted control over world oil supply and therefore price, suddenly looks in danger of losing its grip. What do all these mean for the future of oil? And in turn, for the economy? And where are the best opportunities for investors? To find out, we have the good fortune today to sit down with the green chicken himself, energy analyst Doomberg. LOCK IN THE EARLY BIRD DISCOUNT for the Thoughtful Money Fall Online Conference by registering now at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference #oil #ai #naturalgas --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

Well, the correction that was underway last week appears to have been short-lived. Stocks bounced hard this week, with the S&P up over 200 points. We're at an important point technically, where the current momentum needs to continue to affirm the rally. If not, and we get a triple top, there's a decent chance stocks could then resume a downward slide. Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss the odds, as well as the inflation and jobs data that came out this week, the approaching Fed rate cut(s), the importance of optimism to successful investing and Lance's firm's recent trades. For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this Market Recap. LOCK IN THE EARLY BIRD DISCOUNT for the Thoughtful Money Fall Online Conference by registering now at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference #inflation #jobs #bullmarket --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

Total US federal debt now stands at $35.34 Trillion, now exceeding US annual GDP by $10 trillion. It has been growing at a faster rate than GDP for many decades. That dynamic shows no signs of reversing or even moderating. And on top of the federal debt lies the borrowing of households, businesses, financial institutions and state & local governments. When you add all that up, the total US debt exceeds $100 trillion. So what does that mean for the future? Are we hurdling towards a sovereign debt crisis, as a number of analysts warn? Or is there reason to hope the economy can handle this debt trajectory? For guidance, we're fortunate to welcome back to the program market analyst Gordon Long of MATASII: Macro Analytics & Technical Analysis Strategic Investment Insight Follow Gordon at https://matasii.com LOCK IN THE EARLY BIRD DISCOUNT for the Thoughtful Money Fall Online Conference by registering now at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference #debtcrisis #inflation #investing --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

After a long slumber, volatility has started returning to the financial markets over the past month. Why? And is this just a brief episode? Or the start of a more turbulent era for investors? For answers, we welcome back to the program Cem Karsan, Founder, CIO, and Managing Principal of Kai Volatility Advisors, widely known as @jam_croissant on X/Twitter. LOCK IN THE EARLY BIRD DISCOUNT for the Thoughtful Money Fall Online Conference by registering now at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference #volatility #vix #investing --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

Many consumers are still suffering annual double-digit increases in living essentials. So even though inflation measured as CPI is now reported to be under 3%, that flies in the face of the much higher cost increases real people experience in their daily lives. This is causing investors to start worrying: Will the cost of living outpace my ability to grow my wealth from here? In today's interview with the lead partners at financial advisory firm New Harbor Financial, we address strategies for avoiding that fate. We also discuss the big shoes that seem to be dropping in real-time around us that could disrupt the financial markets: fast-weakening jobs data, coming interest rate cuts, and increasing worries that AI isn't delivering the ROI that Wall Street expected. LOCK IN THE EARLY BIRD DISCOUNT for the Thoughtful Money Fall Online Conference by registering now at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference #inflation #costofliving #marketcorrection --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

Stocks have had a bad week, make worse on Friday when a mixed payrolls report sent investors into a tizzy trying to speculate whether deeper interest rate cuts were more or less likely in September. They eventually decided the latter, and then sent the price of many assets markedly lower. Portfolio Lance Roberts says the correction he's been expecting pre-election is now here. The big question from here is: how far will it go? Lance and I discuss that, plus the weakening jobs data, a recent un-inversion of the yield curve, the sell-off in AI darling Nvidia, and Lance's firm's recent trades in this week's Market Recap. LOCK IN THE EARLY BIRD DISCOUNT for the Thoughtful Money Fall Online Conference by registering now at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference #bearmarket #marketcorrection #bonds --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

This interview comes hot on the heels of the one I just released with demographer Neil Howe in which we discussed the current period of extreme volatility and change -- which he calls the 4th Turning -- that he sees the world descending into. Long simmering issues are now at the point of boiling over, be it economic opportunity, crime, free speech, immigration, personal liberty -- the list is long. When the status quo starts getting upended, what's likely to come next? At times like this when the path forward is unclear and the stakes are high, it's wise to tap the counsel of those with a strong command of the lessons of history, and the practical experience of a lifetime in the market trenches. There are few who fit that description better than Dr Marc Faber, Editor and Publisher of ‘’The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report’ Follow Marc at https://www.gloomboomdoom.com/ #inflation #debtcrisis #marketcorrection --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

The fault lines that divide our society are widening. The K-shaped recovery that we've seen since COVID has rewarded asset owners at the expense of everyone else. And millennials and Gen Zers, who are losing faith in being able to achieve a middle class lifestyle, look with increasing bitterness at the relative prosperity of the Boomer generation. These simmering grudges are only getting inflamed further by the divisive rhetoric of November's approaching US presidential election. Are we at risk of a class war? A generational war? An ideological civil war? Or a combination of all of these? Or, will we find a way to bridge our differences and come together? For perspective, we have the privilege of speaking today with demographer Neil Howe, co-author of the seminal book "The Fourth Turning" and its sequel "The Fourth Turning Is Here". WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #financialcrisis #fourthturning #demographics --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

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One of the asset classes I get the most requests to do an interview on is farmland. It's a form of real estate investment that yields cash flow by producing commodities -- all attractive qualities to investors worried about inflation and/or the loss of purchasing power of fiat currencies. But how does it perform vs other asset classes? And how does one invest in farmland without being forced to become a farmer? For answers, we're fortunate to talk today with Craig Wichner, Managing Director of Farmland LP, which manages over 15,000 acres, farming them sustainably at scale. #farmland #soil #organicfarming

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The markets are back to overbought levels in the near term, both stocks and bonds, assesses portfolio manager Lance Roberts. And while he doesn't think an economic calamity necessarily lies ahead, we don't need one to justify a material downward correction in stocks. Stocks are valued based on their earnings forecast, and right now, forecasts are rosy. But there are multiplying signs that trouble lies ahead, especially in terms of consumer spending. If the economy does indeed slow from here, earnings will fall and stock prices will suffer. Right now, stocks are NOT priced for slowing earnings. Lance and I discuss this risk to asset prices, as well as Nvidia's recent earnings, the AI story in general, the struggling majority of American households and Lance's firm's latest trades in this week's Market Recap. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #nvidia #inflation #stockmarketcorrection --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

Now that it seems the Fed has officially pivoted, what will lower interest rates mean for the economy and financial markets? Will they be enough to keep recession at bay and prevent a further rise in unemployment? What will the trillions of investor capital currently parked in T-bills and money markets go if the yields on those assets go down? For a true expert's view on these important questions, we have the great fortune to sit down today with one of the greatest living economists, Dr. Lacy Hunt, former Senior Economist to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, as well as several of the world's largest global banks. He now serves as Executive Vice President and Chief Economist of Hoisington Investment Management Company. We also discuss his views on the economic plans (as understood so far) of both presidential candidates. Punchline: Lacy is not impressed. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #federalreserve #election2024 #economy --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

Last week in his much-anticipated speech at Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell announced the "time has come for policy to adjust". World markets now have a 100% probability expectation that the Federal Funds Rate will be cut at the upcoming September meeting. In the words of Nick Timiraos, chief economist for the Wall Street Journal and suspected media mouthpiece for the Federal Reserve, "The Powell pivot is complete". Is that indeed the case? And if so, what should we expect from here from the speed and depth of rate cuts? What will the expected impacts be on the economy? And which ones will be felt soon, and which perhaps not for quarters from now? And lastly, is this the correct policy move the Fed should be pursuing? For a true expert's informed perspective on these very important questions, we have the great privilege today of speaking with Dr Thomas Hoenig, former CEO of the Kansas City Fed, former voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, a former director of the FDIC, and now a Distinguished Senior Fellow at the Mercatus Center. Follow Dr Hoenig at https://www.discoursemagazine.com/ or https://www.finregrag.com/ WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

The war of conflicting narratives continues. Bulls point to Q2's robust GDP growth, still relatively low unemployment, an upside surprise in July retail sales, and record high prices for both stocks and existing homes. Bears on the other hand warn about slowing Q3 estimated GDP growth, the triggering of the Sahm rule recession indicator, this week's massive downward revision in payrolls, rising consumer debt delinquencies and recent surveys reporting that half of American adults have less than $500 in savings. When sentiment is full of such crosscurrents, it's prudent to seek the counsel of those who take. cold and calculated look at the data, to see what "is" vs what our biases may want us to see. Which is why we're fortunate to speak with macro analyst Wolf Richter of WolfStreet.com, who will share with us what the charts he regularly compiles are telling him about the true state of today's economy & markets. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #recession #economy #jobsdata --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

Now that Jerome Powell has gone "full pivot", will stocks shoot higher?

Not necessarily, says portfolio manager Michael Lebowitz, who steps in this week while Lance Roberts moves into his new house.

He thinks stocks will be on a "choppy road to nowhere" between now and the election. We discuss why, as well as his rosy outlook for long-duration bonds on this week's Market Recap.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#bonds #fedpivot #interestrates

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The Buffett Indicator currently stands at almost 200%, one of the most extreme readings of overvalution in its history. With stocks so richly valued, prudent investors worry that stretching for further gains here may not be worth the risk. Which is why more and more of them are starting to prioritize investing for income over appreciation. A few months back, I interviewed Steven Bavaria, creator of the Income Factory framework about the merits of constructing a lower-risk portfolio of income-generating assets that include: high dividend stocks, senior bonds, high yield bonds, covered call funds, Master Limited Partnerships, closed-end funds, and more. Today, Steven returns to drill down on the specifics of credit investing, an area that many investors don't have much personal experience in, but offers attractive returns and relative safety in today's market environment. Follow Steven at https://seekingalpha.com/checkout/mp_1356 WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #incomeinvesting #creditinvesting #bondsinvesting --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

We're currently receiving a lot of mixed signals about the direction of the economy? Inflation has dropped to 2.9%. And retail sales for July just beat expectations. That's good, right? But unemployment has rising to 4.3%, triggering the Sahm Rule recession indicator. And credit card and auto loan delinquencies are spiking. Wait -- those sound pretty concerning... So, what's the true health of the economy? Are we still on track for a soft/no landing scenario as we've been told for many quarters? Or might it be wise to start preparing for something harder? For answers, we're fortunately to speak today with someone who tracks the unfolding macro data on a daily basis, Mike "Mish" Shedlock, publisher of MishTalk.com WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #recession #marketcorrection #unemployment --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

Here's a fun question: What better than interviewing your favorite macro expert? Interviewing BOTH your favorite macro experts at the same time! I'm happy & honored that today we get to sit down with Stephanie Pomboy AND her frequent partner in crime Grant Williams to hear their latest outlook for the economy and the markets, plus if we're lucky, a bit about sports and the meaning of life, too. This is an amazing & highly important discussion featuring two of the most respected minds in macro. And both agree: investors need to react to the changing environment else be caught flat-footed by it. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #recession #inflation #deflation

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Stocks have recovered aggressively since the sell-off two weeks ago. Does that signal the market correction that started in mid-July is over? Likely so, thinks portfolio manager Lance Roberts. We discuss the reasons why, as well as how his firm plans to position for higher prices ahead in this week's Market Recap. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #inflation #bullmarket #recession --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

Jeremy Grantham is one of the most respected investors alive today. His firm - Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co. -- better known as GMO, manages $billions in assets under management and produces some of the most-followed market analysis on Wall Street. Core to its outlook is that financial and economic extremes will mean revert. And that prudent investors can pro-actively position themselves to benefit greatly from this reversion when it takes place. And while, no, I am NOT interviewing Mr Grantham today, we have the next best thing: the chance to sit down with one of his lieutenants at GMO. John Pease is a quantitative researcher and partner at GMO, who co-authored the firm's latest Quarterly Letter, which I expect to discuss with him in depth. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #stocks #emergingmarkets #investing --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

The real estate market is a tangled mess right now. High vacancies along with higher interest rates and tighter lending standards are wreaking carnage across much of the commercial sector these days. However, higher mortgage rates have NOT brought down residential home prices, at least not on a national average...yet. That said, transactions have frozen up, falling to the lowest level in decades. Where is all this headed? Are things likely to get better, or worse, from here? For answers, we're fortunate to speak with Ivy Zelman today. Ivy is the Executive Vice President and Co-Founder of Zelman & Associates, one of the most respected research firms advising investors and corporate executives on the real estate market over the past 30 years. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #realestate #housingmarket #homeprices --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

When I interviewed today's guest last year1 he said that the forecast of his proprietary model made him about "as bullish as he'd ever been on stocks" heading into Q1 And to give credit where credit is due, his positioning was spot on the money. Both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ increased by 10% in Q1. When I interviewed him again heading into Q2, his model said "stay the course, stay bullish" And again, the S&P rose another 4% in the quarter, and the NASDAQ did even better, rising 8%. So, given this impressive track record, what's his model telling us to expect from here? To find out we'll ask the man himself. Today we have the good fortune of speaking with Darius Dale, founder & CEO of 42 Macro. Darius' model has him turning less bullish as we move from the past Goldilocks regime into a Deflation one. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #investing #deflation #stocks --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

What a week! The unwind of the yen carry trade sent global markets into free-fall on Monday. Equities tanked, as did Bitcoin, oil and gold. US Treasurys jumped, returning to their traditional inverse relationship to stocks. And then...everything reversed. Most due to central bank intervention in Japan, as well as some better than expected jobs data in the US. So, everyone is asking: Is the sell-off over? Is now the time to buy back in? Portfolio manager Lance Roberts doesn't think so (yet). In this week's Market Recap, we discuss why, as well as his outlook for the months ahead and his firm's recent trades. For everything that mattered to markets, watch this week's Market Recap. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #investing #stocks #stevejobs --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

The Sahm Rule, a widely-monitored recession indicator, triggered on Friday. Some analysts are arguing that it's too early to worry about a slowdown, that the economy is too strong currently. Others warn the US may already BE in recession. So, which is it? For answers, we're fortunate to speak today with Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO & Chief Strategist for QI Research LLC and author of the book "Fed Up: An Insider's Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America" WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #recession #jobs #labormarket --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

After declining for weeks, the global market sell-off accelerated on Monday. Why? The professional financial advisors endorsed by Thoughtful Money answered this + a number of other burning questions viewers asked in this live Q&A session

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

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There's a widely-tracked indicator known as the Sahm Rule, which purports to provide an "early warning notice" when the economy starts entering into recession. So, what's it telling us right now? To find out, we have the privilege of speaking to its developer, economist Claudia Sahm. In addition to founding Sahm Consulting, Claudia spent many years working at the Federal Reserve as well as serving on the Council of Economic Advisors to the White House during the Obama administration. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #economy #recession #marketcorrection --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

Friday's payrolls report miss and subsequent triggering of the Sahm Rule recession indictor caused stocks to continue their sell-off From their mid-July highs, the S&P is down -6%, the Nasdaq is down -10% and the Russell is down -7% How much further will the sell-off go? Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss that in this week's highly animated Market Recap, along with the recent jobs data, the FOMC release, Jerome Powell's recent press conference, the latest market technicals, and Lance's recent trades. For everything that mattered to markets, watch this week's Market Recap. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #marketcorrection #recession #jobsreport --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

In this video, fund manager & Federal Reserve watcher Axel Merk delivers his real-time reaction to yesterday's FOMC guidance & subsqent press conference by Jerome Powell. The Fed is strongly signaling that it will start cutting interest rates starting in September. Is that wise? WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #federalreserve #interestrates #labormarket --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

When we talk about the "markets", most people immediately think of publicly traded financial assets: the S&P and Nasdaq indices, stocks of popular companies like Microsoft & Nvidia, their corporate bonds, etc. We can see the prices of these assets, and how they change minute-by-minute, on the public exchanges. We receive audited financial statements from these companies, as well as quarterly updates on their operating results & forecasts from their executive management. But there's also a massive amount of capital invested in private companies, where there is FAR less transparency, and many would claim, oversight. Today's guest expert, Pulitizer-prize winning & NYTimes best-selling investigative journalist Gretchen Morgenson, along with her co-author Joshua Rosner, has shined much-needed daylight into these private markets through their recent book: "These Are the Plunderers: How Private Equity Runs―and Wrecks―America" I spoke to her last year when the book first came out. We discussed its central claim that a small cohort of elite financiers -- and their government enablers -- use excessive debt and dubious practices to undermine our nation’s economy for their own enrichment. Today we sit down with her for an update. Has anything changed, for the worse or the better, since her book came out? Follow Gretchen at nbcnews.com WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #privateequity #privatecredit #leveragedbuyouts --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

Yesterday I had a private conversation with housing analyst Melody Wright. In it, she revealed how shocked she is by the latest stats that show how the housing market is starting to unravel. Record-low transactions during what is normally the business time of the year for home sales. Inventory up nearly 30% year over year nationally. And of ever greater concern, spiking delinquencies -- in some cases, at rates worse than seen during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. In Melody's words this is the turning point and "winter is coming" for the housing market. Not that you'd know it by looking at the median existing home price, which just hit another all-time high. Is the country really sleepwalking into another housing crisis? We'll find out now, as Melody kindly accepted my ask for her to join me today for an impromptu discussion on this important topic. Follow Melody at: https://www.youtube.com/@DoomersNewsNetwork https://x.com/m3_melody https://m3melody.substack.com https://www.youtube.com/@m3_melody WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #housingmarket #homeprices #realestate --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

While it looks like stocks could continue bouncing higher in the immediate term, portfolio manager Lance Roberts isn't convinced the sell-off is done yet. He and his firm aren't back to buying yet, as they expect a better chance to enter at lower prices in coming weeks. We discuss that, as well as the recent upwards surprise in GDP, Fed rate cut odds, Zombie company risk, the un-inverting yield curve, and Lance's firm's latest trades. For all the mattered to markets, watch this week's Market Recap. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

When today's expert was last on this program back in March, he predicted we'll see sub-2% inflation AND a recession by the end of this year. Since then, headline CPI has remained stubbornly "sticky" above 3% So, is 2% (or less) inflation by December still his forecast? Or have conditions changed? To find out, we have the good fortune to sit down and get a full update today from Steve Hanke, professor of applied economics at the Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, Maryland WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #inflation #recession #federalreserve --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

I often emphasize that the most useful people to interview are asset managers. Because they don't have the luxury of merely having an opinion on the road ahead -- they have to commit capital to their convictions, and be judged upon the results. Today we have the great fortune of being joined by one of the most respected capital allocators in the business: Jan van Eck Jan is CEO of vanEck, an asset management firm with over $100 billion in assets under management invested across its wide family of ETFs and funds, spanning equity, bond, commodity, digital and regional asset classes. Jan and I will spend the next hour discussing his macro and market outlooks, as well as where he sees the biggest opportunities for investors right now. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

When Sven Henrich of NorthmanTrader.com was last on this program, he admitted he was a reluctant bull. He just wasn't seeing any material barriers that stood in the way of the ongoing bully rally in stocks at that time. At the end of our conversation, I asked him to come back on this program when his technical analysis tells him conditions have changed. Well, Sven just reached out last night, letting me know that he has closed out all his longs this week and moved to cash. Why? What has him so spooked? Let's ask the man himself. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #marketcorrection #technicalanalysis #tradingstrategy --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

Well, portfolio manager Lance Roberts has been warning for a while now that stocks were materially overbought and due for a 5%+ correction. And it looks like that started this week, with the S&P selling off 3% over the past 3 trading days. Interestingly, it began with a massive flow of capital into small cap stocks, though that moderated a bit as the week progressed. Whether or not this is the beginning of a Great Rotation from Big Growth into Small Value remains to be seen. But more interesting to Lance is that credit spreads are starting to widen in lower-quality bonds. This is the first rumblings of concern we've seen in the part of the market that truly matters. Is a sleeping dragon awakening here? Lance and I discuss that as well as the likely economic implications of Trump's economic plan, whether the Fed will really cut rates in September, and Lance's firm's latest trades. For everything that mattered to markets, watch this Weekly Market Recap. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #creditspreads #trumpeconomy #interestrates --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

There is a mechanical force that pushes asset prices higher as capital flows passively into the market every month. As more money flows in, it must be used to purchase assets, at whatever current price they're trading at. That valuation-insensitive purchasing results in higher and higher prices. Today's guest refers to this current system as the "giant mindless robot". And, in his view, has deformed our financial markets into a gargantuan ponzi scheme of unprecedented scale. One that someday must go bust, as all ponzis do. For all the details on this, we'll spend the next hour with Michael Green, portfolio manager & chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #stockmarket #assetbubble #ponzi --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

History is full of examples where nations resorted to taking on ever-increasing amounts of debt to maintain a positive economic growth rate. But it never works out well for those who do. Most often, they end up sacrificing the purchasing power of their currencies in the process. Many analysts are now raising such concerns about the fast growing national, corporate and consumer debt pile in the US and other G7 nations. Are we repeating the mistakes of history? Or is it truly different this time? To discuss, we're fortunate to welcome monetary and macro analyst John Rubino, author and co-author of numerous books including The Money Bubble with James Turk. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #debtcrisis #marketcorrection #recession --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testified in front of Congress this week to defend his current monetary policy. While we don't have the results of that testimony as of the time of this recording, Powell has recently stated that he is now seeing the kind of disinflationary path for the US economy that he's wanted to. This of course has Wall Street salivating again that rate cuts are near at hand. Are they? For perspective, we're fortunate today to talk with money manager Michael Pento, president of Pento Portfolio Strategies. Michael warns that we have the most overvalued stock market ever, and the liquidity that drove it to today's extremes is starting to run out. In his words "We're running on fumes". And stocks are at risk of correcting 30-80% from here. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #bearmarket #marketcrash #marketcorrection --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

Yes, Federal Reserve Jerome Powell is hoping he can cut rates soon. But it's less because he's proud he's won the inflation battle. It's more because he's afraid the Lag Effect from his "higher for longer" interest rates are starting to visibly damage the economy. Portfolio manager Michael Lebowitz stands in for Lance Roberts this week to talk about the Fed's unfolding scramble to get to rate cuts before the wheels come off. We're already seeing concerning signs: 1.5% (or less) GDP growth for 2024 so far, rising unemployment, runaway deficits and struggling consumers. Can the Fed ride to the rescue before the wheels come off? Michael and I discuss that, as well as everything that mattered to markets, in this week's Weekly Recap. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #inflation #bonds #interestrates --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

The US economy appears to be slowing down. Final Q1 GDP growth came in at just 1.4% and, as of this recording, Q2 GDP is currently estimated to be little better, at 1.5%. Retail sales for May, the most recent data we have, only grew at 0.1%. And unemployment is starting to tick up, too, rising last week to 4.1%. Now, none of these stats are particularly worrisome on their own. But together, are they signalling rockier economic times could like ahead? To find out, we have the good fortunate to talk today with Dr Anna Wong, Chief U.S. Economist for Bloomberg Economics. Prior to her current role, Anna also worked at the Federal Reserve Board, the White House Council of Economics Advisers, and the U.S. Treasury. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #unemployment #jobs #recession --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

Former Vice President Dick Cheney famously said "Reagan proved that deficits don't matter" True or not, running greater and greater federal budget deficits has become standard operating procedure for Washington DC. When Cheney uttered those words, the annual deficit was in the low hundreds of billions. It's projected to be $2 trillion this year. At that scale, today's guest expert would argue that deficits are indeed starting to matter, because the US is now increasingly challenged to service the debts and other associated liabilities that have accreted from all the years of rising deficit spending. In fact, he concludes we're on a collision course for a sovereign debt crisis, one that will take the purchasing power of the US dollar down with it. To find out why, and what can be done about it, we're fortunate to welcome Luke Gromen, founder of macro research firm FFTT, LLC, back to the program.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

Follow Luke at FFTT-LLC.com #volatility #marketcorrection #dollar

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When I graduated from Stanford Business School 25 years ago, a classmate announced he was going to work for a hedge fund and the rest of us asked "What's that?" Fast forward two and a half decades and the financial markets are practically overrun by hedge funds collectively managing over $5 trillion dollars. And while certain hedge fund managers have become financial celebrities through dazzling returns in their best years, the industry is generally more better regarded as a modern version of Wall Street doing what it does best -- lining its pockets at the expense of others. Is this accurate? Or are there benefits the hedge fund model offers to markets, and perhaps even to the little guy? To find out, we're fortunate to talk today with Andrew Beer, co-founder and managing member of DBi, which seeks to put the strategies behind successful hedge funds into the hands of the retail investor. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #hedgefund #managedfutures #investing --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

There is a massive deviation between stock valuations and earnings growth: growth in the former is far outpacing the latter. This is unsustainable warns portfolio manager Lance Roberts. And unless economic growth suddenly surges (and no catalyst for that is on the radar), then asset prices will need to come down in order to bring the ratio back into balance. And with GDP growth coming in at1.4% in Q1 and currently at 1.7% (and slowing) here in Q2, asset price reduction indeed seems like the more probable outcome. In this video, Lance and I discuss this, as well as market technicals, whether the latest inflation & jobs data increase the odds for a near-term rate cut by the Fed, the importance of sentiment, the latest market technicals and Lance's recent trades. If you like the new studio background, it was created by Inspired Spaces Designs. They do great work and can be contacted through their website https://inspiredspacesdesign.com/ & their Instagram https://www.instagram.com/inspiredspacesinc/ WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #earnings #stockmarket #inflation --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

Today's guest wrote the book "Inflated: How Money & Debt Built The American Dream" In it, he wrote: "The first rule of any fiat system is no fiscal deficit" Well, the US -- and virtually every other G7 country -- is breaking that rule six ways to Sunday given the unprecedented record levels of deficit spending currently underway. Does that mean we're headed for trouble? To find out, we'll ask the author himself, Chris Whalen, Chairman of Whalen Global Advisors LLC and expert on the banking, mortgage finance and fintech sectors. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #inflation #debt #bankingsystem --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

With so many recent interview guests on this channel expressing concern about the near-record levels of overvaluation AND narrow trading breadth in stocks, about slowing economic growth, a weakening consumer and rising recession risk, many of you viewers have been asking for a instructional video on how to protect your portfolios from market downside risk -- a process otherwise known as hedging. Well, your ask is our command. So in this video, the senior partners at New Harbor Financial, one of the financial advisory firms endorsed by Thoughtful Money, will walk us through the fundamentals of hedging using options. John Llodra and Mike Preston, along with their team at New Harbor, employ these options hedging strategies on a daily basis to protect the half a billion in client capital their firm manages. NOTE: This video is not personal financial advice! Before trading options on your own, Thoughtful Money HIGHLY recommends first gaining experience using them under the guidance of a professional financial advisor well-experienced with the techniques mentioned in this video. WORRIED ABOUT RISK? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #hedging #hedgingstrategy #options --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

I find myself frequently repeating the advice that in today's highly bifurcated economy, it's critical to understand the difference between the mean and the median in order to get a true picture of what's going on. And the housing market is no different. On the mean, or average, level, US home prices are at a record high. But in a growing number of markets, a number of them red-hot until recently, prices are down by double-digit percentages. And inventory is spiking. To make sense of the growing divergences and find out where prices are most likely headed from here, we're fortunate to welcome back to the program housing analyst Nick Gerli, founder of reventure Consulting and creator of the new reventure app. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #housingmarket #homeprices #housingcrash --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

Today's stock market is like an iceberg, says portfolio manager Lance Roberts. We can see the surface, which looks fine. The Magnificent 7 stocks -- really now the Mag 5 -- are collectively growing market cap and profits, propping up the overall index. But if you look below the surface, at the bottom 90% of the iceberg, "things look terrible" warns Lance. We discuss why, as well any impact this week's presidential debate is likely to have on markets, For everything that mattered to markets, watch this week's Market Recap. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #presidentialdebate #magnificent7 #investing --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

There's an old saying on Wall Street that "no one rings a bell at the market top" This is why so many surprised investors got so badly burned when the DotCom and 2008 stock bubbles burst. But those who noticed the extreme market conditions beforehand, whose analysis of history convinced them that defense was more prudent than fear of missing out, these few avoided most of the losses -- and some even gained mightily from those crashes, having been positioned wisely in advance. Today's guest is one of those who smartly navigated the past 2 great market corrections. He now thinks we stand at the precipice of a 3rd -- and he's ringing a bell for anyone who will listen. To hear why and what he advises we do about it, we have the great fortune to speak today with Dr John Hussman, founder of Hussman funds, economist, health scientist and philanthropist. He also plays a mean guitar. John gives interviews very rarely. So it's a true privilege for Thoughtful Money that he's willing to give us the next hour of his time. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com Follow John at https://www.hussmanfunds.com or on X/Twitter at @hussmanjp You can read John's recent Market Comment (and see all the charts) at https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc240623/ #marketcrash #stockbubble #investing --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

If you listen to the politicians and the headlines, you'll hear a lot of talk about the "strong consumer" who is keeping the economy happily chugging along. But when we hear from actual consumers themselves, we hear a very different story. The majority of households are struggling under the surge in their cost of living post-COVID. Many express despair that the American dream is now beyond their reach. For a detailed dive into this critical topic, we're fortunate today to speak with Joanne Hsu, director of the widely-followed University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey. The UMich data indeed shows that a growing majority of Americans are giving up hope they'll ever be able to afford a middle class lifestyle. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #consumersentiment #consumerconfidence #costofliving --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

The purchasing power of the world's major fiat currencies has taken a beating since the pandemic. Just in the US, due to the spike in inflation, Truflation now estimates that the dollar has lost over a quarter of its purchasing power since January 2020. Due to this higher inflation, as well as continued expectations for higher secular inflation over the coming years as globalization declines, nations reshore supply chains and increasingly compete for global commodities, some of which are due for supply shortages -- it's no surprise that more investors are looking increasing towards owning hard assets as a hedge. So what are the most important trends and opportunities in hard assets right now? To find out, we have the good fortune to talk with Rick Rule, perhaps the most seasoned & respected natural resources investor alive today. Register for Rick's upcoming Symposium on July 7-11, 2024 at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/rule WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #commodities #goldprice #inflation --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

With stocks still firmly in overbought territory and the uncertainty of the US presidential election nearing, portfolio manager Lance Roberts warns "We're due for a correction" He expects a 5-10% pullback in the near term. And perhaps a slightly larger drop leading up to November as Wall Street de-risks ahead of voting. Lance and Adam review the latest chart technicals, whether Japan’s Norinchukin Bank and it's announced liquidation of its US Treasury portfolio poses a risk to bond market, the dangers of private investing, and the worrying extent to just how far the S&P 500 is trading above historical valuation averages. For everything that mattered to markets, watch this week's Market Recap. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #stockmarketcorrection #Norinchukin #marketcorrection --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

When asked last month if the US economy was heading into stagflation, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he didn't see the "stag" nor the "flation" in the data he looks at. Well, US Q2 GDP growth estimates as forecasted by the Atlanta Fed's GDP Now service are plunging. And Q1's weak reported GDP growth rate of 1.6% was revised further downwards to a paltry 1.3% That's some "stag" right there. And CPI remains quite sticky at 3.3%, solidly higher than it was 9 months ago. So that's some "flation" To learn how to protect the purchasing power of your wealth in an increasingly stagflationary environment, we're fortunate to be joined today by Matt Piepenburg of Von Greyerz Gold. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #debt #goldprice #currency --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

So far this year, the top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 have accounted for more than 76% of the index's gain. This is the 2nd most concentrated reading for the S&P in the past 20 years. The highest percentage was 79%, achieved in 2007, right before the Global Financial Crisis. Are we in a new AI-powered Tech renaissance that will continuing powering the markets higher for years to come? Or are we risking a major market breakdown, putting all our hopes in a handful of companies that can't keep growing at the meteoric rates that Wall Street is expecting? For answers, we're fortunate today to speak with Fred Hickey, editor of the highly respected newsletter The High Tech Strategist, which Fred has been publishing since 1987. Fred is extremely worried about the lack of demonstrable return-on-investment from the hundreds of $billions currently being spent on generative A.I. In his estimation, the tremendous valuations currently being awarded to A.I.-related stocks is on par with the infamous Dutch tulip and South Sea manias. He predicts the current situation will end as painfully as those asset bubbles did. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #nvdia #aapl #artificialintelligence --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

Well, the markets are back at all-time highs and central banks around the world are increasingly talking of interest rate cuts...or actually making them. Will that take asset prices even higher from here? Are we in a new golden era for stocks? To find out what the technicals are telling us, as well as to dig into the macro side as well, we're fortunate to speak today with Sven Henrich, technical analyst and publisher of NorthmanTrader.com. Sven thinks we are at an important juncture, technically-speaking. Either a material correction is going to happen...or we're at the start of a much bigger bull run than we've seen so far. One potentially big enough to send the S&P to 9000 by 2028(!) WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #technicalanalysis #bullmarket #stocks --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

Stocks hit new all-time highs this week and despite being very overbought, momentum is still higher. What could end this rally is the upcoming earnings season, cautions portfolio manager Lance Roberts. Profit growth estimates are EXTREMELY optimistic right now. If they disappoint, a reversal could be fast & furious. Lance and I talk about that, the recent Fed guidance, the weak jobs market, and do a detailed walk-though of Lance's new & improved SimpleVisor service in this week's update. SIGN UP FOR SIMPLEVISOR OR SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #unemployment #federalreserve #investing --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

In its latest guidance released this week, the Federal Reserve is holding interest rates steady for now. The Federal Funds rate will remain unchanged at 5.25% But the Fed did lower its rate cut forecast for 2024 to just 1. And it raised its 2025 rate cut expectations upwards from 3 to 4. It largely did this because its outlook on inflation is notably more optimistic than in previous months. Wall Street certainly liked what it heard, with the S&P jumping over 1% on the news and Treasury yields falling. But does this slightly more optimistic view actually change anything? To find out, we sat down right after Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference with Axel Merk to get his real-time assessment. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #federalreserve #interestrates #inflation --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

Despite the Federal Reserve's efforts to tame inflation by cooling the economy with its aggressive "higher for longer" interest rates and Quantitative Tightening, the US has managed to avoid recession. Consumer spending has held up, largely due to the "strong" jobs market. But is that likely to remain the case going forward? And if not, if unemployment starts to rise significantly, what should we expect? Mass layoffs? A recession? A correction in the financial markets or home prices? Or none of these? To find out, we have the good fortune to speak today with Michael Kantrowitz, chief investment strategist & managing director at Piper Sandler. He's created the HOPE framework, which provides a way for us to track recession risk, and gives us the ability to project what's likely to happen next for the economy. Michael's forecast is surprisingly nuanced and contains elements both bulls & bears should heed. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #unemployment #employment #recession --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

In today's discussion we look at the all-important energy market. Remember, without energy, there is no economy. As we look to the future, where are global energy trends headed? Which ones are we likely to turn to more to power the world of tomorrow? And where are the best opportunities for investors likely to lie? To discuss in depth, we're fortunate to sit down with the green chicken himself, the energy expert Doomberg. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #oil #nuclearenergy #naturalgas --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

Stocks remain overbought at current levels and volatility remains low. Portfolio manager Lance Roberts expects markets to tread sideways until next week's CPI data and latest Fed guidance are in. If they show the economy is indeed slowing down faster than expected and/or inflation is moderating, stocks will likely pop as rate cut hopes will be put back on the table. But if not, will markets drop? As Lance notes, valuations and earnings forecasts are now at elevated extremes, and any diminishment to the current optimism could start giving investors the jitters. We discuss these odds, as well as the weakening labor market outlook, the GameStop circus show, concerns about AI demand, and Lance's latest trades in this week's Market Recap. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #gamestop #employment #inflation --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

According to Truflation, the US dollar has lost nearly 25% of its purchasing power since January of 2020. Many everyday Americans struggling to pay their monthly bills may argue that's an understatement. What the US dollar does, vs real things as well as vs other national currencies, has very real implications -- economically, financially & geopolitically -- for everyone watching this video, regardless of where you live. For a better sense of what it's likely to do from here, we're fortunate to speak today with Brent Johnson, CEO & Portfolio Manager at Santiago Capital, and developer of the Dollar Milkshake Theory. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #dollar #currency #inflation --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

As we enter the midpoint of 2024, confidence in the economy and the financial markets is a lot higher than it was at this time a year ago. Stock in particular, have had a phenomenal run over the past 7 months. So it's little surprise that the bulls expect the party to continue on through the rest of the year. Will it? To find out, we turn to the experience and wisdom of financial advisor Ted Oakley, managing partner & founder of Oxbow Advisors. Ted has over 40 years experience helping clients, mostly high net worth families, protect and build wealth through good times and bad. We'll find out how he's currently positioning his clients assets for the coming year. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #bearmarket #recession #inflation --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

Between February 2022 and August 2023, in order to combat hot inflation, the Federal Reserve rocketed its discount rate from near 0% to 5.25% -- the most aggressive interest rate schedule in living memory. Since then, the Fed has kept the rate at 5.25% -- the 'higher for longer' era But despite this, even when paired with Quantitative Tightening, economic growth remains robust, inflation is lower but is proving sticky, unemployment remains under 4%, and the stock market is at all time highs. In short, the Fed's aggressively restrictive policies haven't cooled things down much. They've been so ineffective that even the Wall Street Journal is asking "Do interest rates really matter anymore?" To find out, we have the great fortune of speaking today with perhaps the world's foremost living expert on interest rates, James Grant, founder and editor of the highly-respected market journal Grant's Interest Rate Observer. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #interestrates #inflation #recession --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

The S&P 500 has recently had a near-term sell signal triggered, during a week where many Tech stocks -- including Nvidia -- sold off harder than the general markets. This shouldn't be a cause for major concern. But it explains why the market is down from it all-time high 10 days ago, and may likely have farther to fall until the overbought conditions are fully worked off. The latest slowing CPE inflation data gave Wall Street a little more hope on Friday that rate cuts may not be pushed as far into the future as has been currently feared. And this gave a boost to bonds, brining the US 10-year Treasury yield down to 4.5%. Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss all this plus his firms latest trades in this week's Market Recap. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #nvidia #nvda #inflation --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

If you' re planning on possibly purchasing or selling a car in the near future, or just curious about how the latest action in the auto market are impacting your current car's value, you'll want to listen up to today's guest. We're fortunate to be joined today by auto expert and car dealership owner Yossi Levi, who will give us his latest boots-on-the-ground reporting on the key trends driving supply, pricing & lending in the car market right now. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #carprice #buycar #carlease --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

In markets as in life, sentiment drives decision making. And until sentiment shifts, the status quo will maintain. Even when at extreme conditions. Today's guest has made the study of sentiment his life's work. Which is particularly timely given that consumer confidence continues to plunge, with the recent April Consumer Confidence numbers coming in far below the consensus estimate. This is important because when it comes to the markets, as well as a number of other issues central to our way of life, we may be walking dangerously close to a tipping point where the prevailing sentiment suddenly reverses and the herd bolts in an unexpected direction -- potentially leading to sharp changes most will be caught unawares by. So what do we need to be keeping our eyes on most closely? To find out, we're fortunate to speak today with behavioral economist Peter Atwater, adjunct professor at William & Mary College, and author of the book The Confidence Map: Charting a Path from Chaos to Clarity. We'll ask him what his key confidence indicators are telling him about the prospects for the rest of 2024. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #socialunrest #bullmarket #sentiment --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

Stocks markets have had a massive run since November of last year and all the major indices -- the S&P 500, the Dow and the NASDAQ - have hit all-time highs this week. US GDP growth for the current quarter is currently predicted to be 3.6%, global economic growth as measured by PMIs has turned positive for the first time in 2 years, the official unemployment rate remains below 4%, the most important stock to the markets -- Nvidia -- just beat expectations on earnings & revenues... So it's unsurprising the bulls are feeling large & in charge right now. Talk of hitting S&P 6000 later this year is getting louder. Is that likely? In heady times like these, turning to the data & navigating by what it's telling us is often highly useful. Which is why we're fortunate to have one of the best technical analysts in the industry, Tom McClellan, joining us today to share his latest interpretation of the current market action. Tom is watching several key indicators that, if their decades-long correlation with the stock market continues to hold, suggest a material correction is coming in the second half of this year. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #stockmarketcorrection #stockcrash #oilprice --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

It's been a week to remember for stocks... After the S&P, the Dow and the NASDAQ each hitting all-time highs earlier this week, Nvidia blew past expectations on both revenue and earnings, eclipsing $2.5 trillion in market value. The bulls are feeling large & in charge as a result, though stocks may take breather soon -- as signaled by Thursday's bloodbath in the markets despite Nvidia's big beat. Portfolio manager Lance Roberts sees stocks as extended and overbought in the near term, and expects a "cooling off" period to happen soon. We discuss the reasons why, as well as recession risk, the latest employment data, technical indicators, and our advice to job seekers in this Weekly Recap. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #nvidia #jobs #stockmarket --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

Today's guest is best known for publishing the world's most respected annual analysis of the precious metals market, known as the In Gold We Trust Report. It covers what's driving supply & demand, the performance of the metals vs the companies that mine them, and what the outlook for prices is. This year's report, subtitled The New Gold Playbook, was just issued last week -- all 400+ pages of it. To learn its highlights, we're fortunate to speak today with one of its co-authors, Ronald-Peter Stöferle, Managing Partner & Fund Manager at Incrementum AG. Ronnie calculates that the bull market in gold is still in the early "Accumulation" phase. That will be followed by the "Public Participation" and "Distribution" phases. Before the bull run is over, Ronnie sees gold being substantially re-priced higher. Access the new 400+ page In Gold We Trust report, for free, at https://ingoldwetrust.report/download/34291/?lang=en

SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #gold #goldprice #preciousmetals

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After a blowout Q1, stocks swooned in April, raising concerns the bull rally had ended.

Nope.

The bulls returned in May and as of this recording, the S&P, the Dow and the NASDAQ are all trading at all-time-highs.

Wall Street is confident, the financial media is downright gleeful, and the market momentum has a lot of tailwinds behind it right now.

But...there are headwinds, too.

Which will win out as we head closer to the uncertainty of the November elections?

For perspective, we're fortunate today to talk with Cameron Dawson Chief Investment Officer at NewEdge Wealth.

Cameron thinks that markets still have room to run here. But she warns that if the Fed starts cutting rates later this year, it may have the OPPOSITE effect of what investors are hoping for.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#interestrates #ratecuts #investing

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While the official unemployment rate remains at a low 3.9%, there is an epidemic in the US and other Western countries of men -- and now increasingly women -- without work. These are millions of otherwise able-bodied working age adults who have given up on finding work, often driven to do so out of frustration and despair. It's gotten to the point where 1 in 6 prime working age men has no paid work at all. What is causing this? And what can be done about it? Because when an increasing percentage of your prime working age population stops contributing to economic productivity, not only do they suffer the consequences of diminished prosperity -- we all do. For a deep dive into this pressing crisis, we're fortunate to speak today with Nicholas Eberstadt, the Henry Wendt Chair in Political Economy at the American Enterprise Institute and author of the book Men Without Work. Get Nicholas' book here: https://www.amazon.com/Men-Without-Work-Americas-Invisible/dp/1599474697 Follow Nicholas at https://aei.org/

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #unemployment #jobs #depression

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Three week's ago, the S&P had fallen below 5,000 and Wall Street was worried the party in stocks might be over.

Nope.

Stocks rebounded and, as of today, the S&P, Dow, and (almost) NASDAQ sit at all-time highs.

Technically, it looks like the bull trend is set to continue says portfolio manager Lance Roberts, especially with $1 trillion of announced buybacks set to flow into markets through the rest of the year. Though stocks have moved so far so fast that a short-term pullback is quite likely.

Lance and I discuss what's driving the current stock surge, the signs he's monitoring to sense when it may be ending, Warren Buffett's latest warning to investors, and Lance's firm's latest trades.

For everything that mattered to markets, watch this week's Market Recap.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#investing #bullmarket #stockbuybacks

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When today's guest appeared for the first time on this channel a few months ago, a start was born. Those who hadn't yet heard of Danielle Park were impressed by both her command of the macro data and her unflinching courage to call things as she sees them. She highlighted a number of concerns about the trajectory of the economy and markets back then -- and today we check back in with her to see whether things have improved...or gotten worse? Well, Danielle thinks they're "worse". Stress cracks in the economy are now much more clearly visible. And the markets? While they're currently being driven to new highs by "madness" (see: Gamestop), investors hoping for rate cuts may indeed get them. But history shows that stocks fall, often hard, during rate cut regimes. So investors better be careful what they wish for. And they'd better be prepared. Too many are too long and too confident right now. To hear how she's positioning client capital right now, watch this video. Follow Danielle on X/Twitter at @kdaniellepark, on her daily blog at https://jugglingdynamite.com/, or at her website at https://www.venablepark.com/

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #debt #recession #interestrates

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Many of the recent housing analysts I've talked with, like in last week's excellent interview with mortgage expert Melody Wright, see tougher times ahead for the real estate market.

So for further context, I thought it would be helpful to get a true "boots on the ground" view from one of America's more successful property investors.

What is he seeing across the thousands of property units in his portfolio?

Is he buying, selling, or holding steady given current market conditions?

And where does he see the housing market headed from here?

For answers, we turn to Ken McElroy, founder and CEO of real estate investment and property management firm MC Companies.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#realestateinvesting #housingmarket #homeprices

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It feels like a tale of two economies right now.

If you ask an economist, chances are you'll hear that the US is doing great, growing faster than its G7 peers, with low unemployment and a stock market back near all-time highs.

But if you ask the average man on the street, you'll likely hear a very different story.

One of hardship, where wages aren't keeping up with the massive spike in cost of living, where companies are reducing hours, freezing hiring or actively laying workers off, and households are increasingly forced to turn to expensive credit cards to fund living essentials.

Which of these is more accurate?

And are things likely to get better or worse from here?

For an expert view, we're lucky today to talk with Stephanie Pomboy, economic and market analysis and proprietor of MacroMavens.com

Follow Stephanie at https://macromavens.com/

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#inflation #deflation #recession

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The Dow just had its best week of 2024.

And the S&P remains on a tear higher from its mid-April lows.

As a result, looking at short-term conditions, stocks have quickly returned to overbought conditions, says portfolio manager Lance Roberts.

It's likely they'll have a cooling off period over the coming week or two.

Expect a retest of the 50 daily moving average. If that holds, that's a very bullish sign that new all-time highs may not be that far away.

Lance and I walk through the charts, as well as discuss the late-breaking consumer sentiment and jobs data, the wisdom of Freddie Mac's proposal to enter the home equity market, and, of course, his firm's latest trades.

For everything that mattered to markets, watch this week's Market Recap.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#investing #stocks #jobsreport

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A few days ago, an article appeared in the Financial Times revealing that "Last month, the government-sponsored mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac filed a proposal with its regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, to enter into the secondary mortgage market, otherwise known as home equity loans"

The article's author, Meredith Whitney, claims that if approved, this "could begin to unleash almost $1tn into consumers’ wallets. By the autumn, it could be on its way to $2tn."

That would be a tremendous stimulus to the economy.

But is it a good idea?

Putting aside for a moment concerns of its potential inflationary impact, the Global Financial Crisis was a credit crisis triggered by bad housing loans.

Would allowing the government-sponsored entities like Freddie Mac to unleash a flood of new loans risk repeating the sins of the past?

For answers, we're fortunate to turn to mortgage lending expert & housing analyst Melody Wright.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#housingmarket #homeequity #mortgageloans

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Today's guest expert just released a warning that the official jobs data reported by the government are "overstated by historical proportions"

And when the downward revisions get released, it will shock both the Federal Reserve and the financial markets.

For the details on this, we turn to the man who wrote the report, highly-respected economist & award-winning researcher David Rosenberg, founder & president of Rosenberg Research.

Visit David at https://www.rosenbergresearch.com/

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#jobs #recession2024 #interestrates

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Stubbornly sticky inflation looks to be turning the Federal Reserve's campaign of Higher For Longer interest rates into "Higher For Even Longer"

Today's guest warns that "Markets are unprepared for price growth that is becoming entrenched".

Nor do they appear prepared for bond yields to remain at today's rates, let alone march higher from here.

Remember, it was only a few short months ago that the markets were pricing in 7 rate cuts in 2024. Now it's appearing they'll be lucky to get only 2 or 3.

And who knows?

They may not get any.

Does this mean financial asset prices need to adjust downward in some material way?

And will the economy slow faster than expected from here?

Perhaps the recent weakness we've saw in stocks in April was Wall Street finally awakening to these potential ramifications.

For an analyst's perspective on the matter, we turn to Simon White, Macro Strategist at Bloomberg and co-founder of the investment-advisory firm Variant Perception.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#volatility #bullmarket #interestrates

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Since today's guest was last on this program back in December, the world has continued to fracture geopolitically.

Where is that trend taking us?

And what will the impact be on global prosperity?

The majority of folks who watch this Thoughtful Money channel are primarily from the US, Canada, Europe and Australia.

So to provide a perspective from a non-Western point of view, I'm pleased to welcome Michael Every back onto the program.

Michael is Global Strategist at Rabobank, and joins us from Thailand.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#geopolitics #trade #investing

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Stock prices are compressing in a wedge pattern suggesting the market is going to make a breakout soon.

But in which direction?

We'll soon know for sure, but portfolio manager Lance Roberts' models triggered a buy signal today. So he thinks the odds favor the bulls.

Why discuss why in today's Market Recap, as well react to this week's Fed guidance, the new payroll data, the impact massive buyback programs from companies like Google and Apple are having on the markets, and the most common ways regular investors sabotage their success.

Lance also shares the latest trades his firm made this week.

For everything that mattered to markets, watch this week's Market Recap.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#federalreserve #inflation #jobs

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Yesterday, May 1 2024, the Federal Reserve issued its latest policy statement, followed by a press conference by Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

The Fed held its policy interest rate steady at 5.25%, as expected.

Somewhat surprising to Wall Street was the Fed's announcement that it will reduce the scope of its Quantitative Tightening program starting in June. US Treasury roll-off will be reduced to $25 billion per month, down from the current $60 billion per month.

Above and beyond that, Jerome Powell admitted that inflation is proving more stubborn to tame than the Fed hoped at the start of the year, and that getting it down sustainably to the Fed's 2% target will "take longer than previously expected". This essentially is admitting that interest rates will stay hike for EVEN longer.

In this video, Fed-watcher Axel Merk of Merk Investments joins Thoughtful Money host Adam Taggart to provide an immediate reaction to the Fed's guidance and take live Q&A from the viewing audience.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#interestrates #inflation #federalreserve

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If we care about the future of the economy, then we have to pay close attention to the policies that shape it. We are currently living in an age of extreme -- and in certain cases, unprecedented -- levels of monetary and fiscal policy. Is that wise? Or should market forces be allowed to play out more & free us from the constant intervention of the central planners? To explore this, we welcome economist Dr Arthur Laffer. Dr Laffer was the first to hold the title of Chief Economist at the Office of Management and Budget in the early 1970s. He then later served as a member of President Reagan's Economic Policy Advisory Board. He's perhaps best known for developing the Laffer curve, a model for determining the optimal balance between tax revenues and economic growth. Dr Laffer sees the major nations of the world declining into a sclerotic senescence. BUT...he sees a way for us to reverse that plight, on a timeline that could be much faster than many imagine is possible. The key question is: Will we have the conviction, courage and commitment to embrace the necessary reforms? For an important discussion with a respected economic advisor to nearly every President since Nixon, watch this video with Dr Art Laffer.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #taxes #internationaltrade #economics

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In order to succeed, it's critical to understand the rules you're playing by.

And the rules for investing may have recently changed.

There's a good argument to be made that we are now in an era of fiscal dominance.

Today's guest, one of the smarter you'll get the chance to hear from, is certainly making that case.

So what exactly is fiscal dominance?

Why is it important for investors to understand?

And which assets do well, and which do poorly, in such an era?

To find out, we have the good fortune of speaking today with Lyn Alden, investment strategist & author of the recent book "Broken Money: Why Our Financial System is Failing Us and How We Can Make it Better"

And if time allows, we'll also ask for her outlook on the dollar, gold and Bitcoin.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#fiscaldominance #inflation #recession

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Is the market downdraft that sent stocks 5% lower from their recent all-time highs over?

It's looking like it could be.

But the market is at a "critical juncture" observes portfolio manager Lance Roberts.

The S&P is getting quite close to its 50 and 20 Daily Moving Averages. If it rises above them, then we're likely back off to the races and new all-time highs could be in the future.

But if it fails to do so, then a fall back to the 100 Daily Moving Average is more likely in store.

Lance and I walk through the charts, as well discuss the latest slowdown in GDP growth, the latest hot inflation surprise data, as well as what's happening with bond yields.

This episode is very important to watch if you're 40 years or younger and/or just starting out on your wealth-building journey. Lance shares his simple formula for how to get out of financial survival mode and amass sufficient capital to take control of your financial destiny.

For that, plus everything that mattered to the markets, watch this week's Market Recap.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#investing #inflation #interestrates

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With the market now expecting less than 2 rate cuts this year -- perhaps none at all until next year according to Bank of America -- what does that mean for the economy?

Can it handle "higher for even longer" interest rates without slowing markedly?

Or, even worse, something systemic breaking?

And what impact will these higher rates likely have on stock, bonds and other asset prices?

To find out, we're fortunate today to talk with money manager Michael Pento. president of Pento Portfolio Strategies.

Michael is "not happy". He's very concerned that the crown jewel of our capitalist society, the middle class, is getting "destroyed". He sees nothing good coming from that.

And looking ahead, he sees a disinflationary recession happening in the second half of 2024, to be followed in early to mid-2025 by an era of stagflation more extreme than we've ever experienced.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#inflation #stagflation #recession

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WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com Stocks have sold off sharply since hitting all time highs just 3 weeks ago. Bond prices are falling, too. What's going on here? Is this just a needed pullback to remove excessive froth before the market resumes rising to all-time highs? Or is this a more significant reversal? For a professional's perspective, we turn to John Llodra and Mike Preston, the lead partners at advisory firm New Harbor Financial. Many of you already know that New Harbor is one of the financial advisory firms endorsed by Thoughtful Money. To schedule a free consultation with them, fill out the short form at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #inflation #goldprice #marketcorrection

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On the famous fear/greed index, after spending most of the past year and half in "greed", we've suddenly switched to "fear" over a very short time frame.

The S&P has broken below both its 20 and 50 Daily Moving Averages.

Inflation printed hotter than expected, making Wall Street start to doubt the Federal Reserve's ability to deliver expected rate cuts.

And geopolitical tensions have puckered tighter following the escalation of hostilities between Iran and Israel.

Is the exuberant sentiment that drove the past year's bull market now gone?

Or it is just taking a breather before continuing to climb what has suddenly become a much steeper Wall Of Worry?

For answers, we're fortunate to speak today with market veteran Kevin Muir, founder and editor of The Macro Tourist, the highly-acclaimed newsletter that currently ranks as the #12th largest financial Substack in the world. 

Follow Kevin at https://themacrotourist.com/

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#marketcorrection #volatility #investing

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Well, the relentless bull rally that began in November is over.

Stocks fell hard this week, with the S&P breaking below 5000 on Friday. It's now down nearly 300 points from its all-time hit, which it hit just 3 weeks ago.

How low is this pullback likely to go?

Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss just that in this week's Market Recap, as well as sticky inflation, rising bond yields, lackluster retail sales and the dangerous warning the NFIB data is sending about jobs.

And as usual, Lance shares the trades his firm made this week.

For everything that mattered to the market, watch this week's Market Recap.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#marketcorrection #bondyields #bearmarket

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The headline economic data gives a comforting sense the economy is strong.

The media headlines tell us the consumer is "resilient"

But if you ask most Americans, they'll tell you they're struggling.

Last year, a Forbes Advisor survey revealed that nearly 70% of respondents either identified as living paycheck to paycheck (40%) or—even more concerning—reported that their income doesn’t even cover their standard expenses (29%).

So why is there such a big disconnect here?

For context, we're fortunate to talk today with Adam Kobeissi, publisher of the popular capital markets report, The Kobeissi Letter.

While Adam remains guardedly bullish in the near term, he thinks market risks are mounting and that investors need to prepare for "much larger swings to the downside" as the year progresses.

Follow Adam at https://www.thekobeissiletter.com/

Or on Twitter at @kobeissiletter

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#bullmarket #marketcorrection #jobs

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This is a live Special Report with geopolitical expert Ryan Bohl, MidEast analyst for the RANE Network.

Given the serious nature of and confusion around the escalation of hostilities between Iran & Israel, I've brought Ryan on the program to ask him: - The drivers of tension between Iran and Israel - What led to this weekend's attack? - What do you expect to happen from here? - What impact is this conflict having on the global economy & financial markets? - If things escalate, how concerned should those living in the West be? - What will it take to de-escalate the situation? Ryan takes live audience Q&A near the end of the interview #israel #iran #worldwar3

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The price of gold has experienced a breakout over the past month and a half.

What does that mean?

Is that a sign that investors are worried about higher inflation to come?

Or that capital is fleeing to safety in advance of approaching economic trouble?

Or is this price surge due to speculative zeal?

For answers, we turn to capital manager Axel Merk and his team at Merk Investments, who manage several funds that invest in the precious metal sector.

We'll also ask them their thoughts on the future prospects of the gold and silver mining companies.

Will their performance catch up to, and perhaps outpace that of the metals soon?

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#goldprice #silverprice #miningstocks

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When I last interviewed today's guest back in December, he said that the forecast of his proprietary model made him about "as bullish as he'd ever been on stocks" heading into 2024.

And to give credit where credit is due, his positioning was spot on the money.

The S&P 500 & NASDAQ both increased by 11% in Q1

So what is his model telling us to expect in Q2?

To find out we'll ask the man himself.

Today we have the good fortune of speaking with Darius Dale, founder & CEO of 42 Macro.

Darius still maintains a bullish stance, but now that we've moved out of the "Goldilocks" regime and into "Reflation", the intensity of that stance is only moderate at this point.

Follow Darius at https://42macro.com/

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#reflation #inflation #bullmarket

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The unending string of up weeks we saw in stocks in Q1 has ended here in April.

The market had a volatile week, with the S&P ending roughly 100 points lower and bond yields continuing to rise, with the UST 10-year now over 4.5%

Notably, the S&P has broken below the bullish trendline it has been trading in since the bull rally began back in November.The breakdown is unconfirmed as of yet.

But if stocks close a little lower from here without regaining their 20 Daily Moving Average, then it will be...so next week will bear close watching.

Portfolio Manager Lance Roberts and I discuss this in depth - as well as Jesse Felder's "three 50s" warnings, inflation, bonds, the price action in gold & oil, as well as his firm's recent trades.

For everything that mattered to market, watch this week's Market Recap featuring Lance Roberts.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#stockmarketcorrection #bondyields #goldprice

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In Q1, investors could do no wrong.

Making money was easy as almost every asset class rose to new highs as markets anticipated coming interest rate cuts from.

But here at the start of Q2, things are starting to feel a lot less safe. Suddenly stock prices are plateauing, and services inflation plus a swiftly rising oil price are quickly dashing hopes of rate cuts anytime soon.

Will the markets offer a bumpier ride from here?

To find out, we have the good fortune to talk today with David Brady, money manager, former FX trader, and author of one of the most popular investing publications on Substack, the FIPEST Report.

David has a pretty grim outlook for the stock market. He expects stocks to fall 20-30% soon, recover before the election as the Federal Reserve returns to QE, and then, once the election is over, "drop precipitously"

Follow David at https://fipestreport.substack.com/

Or on Twitter at @GlobalProTrader

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#stockcrash #gold #silver

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Today's guest expert is concerned that too many investors, giddy with the ferocious market gains since November, are increasingly willing to pay prices for assets that only make sense if the pace of gains continues into the far future.

This is called "extrapolating the unsustainable" and is a hallmark of late stage price melt-ups.

Historically, this behavior has not ended well for those engaging in it.

Will it prove different this time?

To find out, as well as hear his outlook for markets, we're fortunate to speak today with Jesse Felder, founder & Editor of the respected market research firm: The Felder Report.

Jesse warns that while the market is currently priced for a Goldilocks Econonmy, stagflation is much more likely.

Follow Jesse at https://thefelderreport.com/

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#stagflation #recession #marketcorrection

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There's a lot of uncertainty in the world right now -- geopolitical, economic, social, and environmental.

At times like this when the path forward is unclear and the stakes are high, it's wise to tap the counsel of those with a strong command of the lessons of history, and the practical experience of a lifetime in the market trenches.

There are few who fit that description better than Dr Marc Faber, Editor and Publisher of ‘’The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report’Colorful, brash & brilliant — Marc understands the global economy through a historical lens practically unmatched in the industry.

And he’s a declarative straight-shooter who doesn’t mince words.

Follow Marc at https://www.gloomboomdoom.com/

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKETS? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#wealthgap #inflation #goldprice

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Are cracks starting to appear in the bull market rally?

Portfolio manager Lance Roberts thinks so.

His technical dashboard is now showing sell signals as volatility is increasing and the S&P has broken beneath its 20 Daily Moving Average.Next week should be telling.

If the S&P rises and closes back above its 20 DMA, that should mean the bull trend is intact.

But if not, and the 20 DMA becomes resistance instead of support, that's a strong sign the rally is cooked for now.

We discuss this, as well as the latest hard-to-believe blowout jobs report, the recent jawboning by Fed officials, bond yields, banking system risk, gold and oil.

For everything that mattered to markets, watch this week's Market Recap featuring Lance Roberts.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#bullmarket #volatility #jobsreport

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The Federal Reserve is one of, if not the most, significant institutions in the world given the global impact of its policy decisions. It influences the price of nearly everything, as well as the availability of jobs, the stability of our banking system, and the purchasing power of our money. When the Fed Chair speaks, the entire world stops to listen. But the average person has a poor understanding of how this colossally important entity operates or even why it exists. And after a series of asset price bubbles -- which some argue we're in another one now -- a chorus skeptical of the Fed's actions has emerged. So today we're doing our best to shine as bright a light as possible on the Fed: how & why it operates, the good & as well as the shortcomings of its actions to date, what direction its policies are likely to take from here, and how all of this impacts the households of regular people like you and me We have the great privilege of speaking today with Thomas Hoenig, former CEO of the Kansas City Fed, former voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, a former director of the FDIC, and now a Distinguished Senior Fellow at the Mercatus Center. Follow Dr. Hoenig at https://substack.com/profile/131926993-thomas-hoenig

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #federalreserve #inflation #money

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Stocks have delivered a great ride over the past year and a half. That has attracted retail investors back into the markets with a vengeance. Household equity ownership is currently near an all-time high. Does this bull market still have plenty of room left to run? And if so, what are the skeptics misunderstanding? For insight, we have the good fortune to turn to Dr. Ed Yardeni, President of Yardeni Research. While not dismissive of the many potential risks to the market's momentum, Ed maintains price targets on the S&P 500 index of 5,400 for 2024 (we're nearly there, so he may need to raise it soon), 6,000 for 2025 and 6,500 for 2026. Follow Ed at https://yardeni.com/ or https://yardeniquicktakes.com/

SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #bullmarket #ai #cloudcomputing

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When I interviewed today's guest expert back in August of 2021, when inflation was 5%, he made the bold prediction that the CPI would eventually hit 9%, a prediction that seemed unthinkable at the time -- but it indeed proved true less than a year later. He then called for inflation to moderate substantially, which it also then did. Where does he see inflation headed from here? To find out, as well as hear his latest outlook on the economy, recession risk, social stability and the markets, we welcome back Steve Hanke professor, of applied economics at the Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, Maryland

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#recession #inflation #moneysupply

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Nearly every asset class saw gains in Q1 -- stocks, the dollar, gold, Bitcoin and real estate. Will the rally keep powering higher through the remainder of 2024? Portfolio manager Lance Roberts thinks, while anything is possible, stocks are increasingly at risk of a pull-back, especially as the Presidential election approaches. Markets hate uncertainty, and with a close election expected, not just for the Presidency but for the chambers of Congress as well, it's likely investors will start selling and moving towards the sidelines as summer approaches. Lance and I discuss that, as well as concerning new jobs data, the looming retirement crisis, the worsening wealth divide, plus several other positive recent developments in this week's recap.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #marketcorrection #bullmarket #jobs2024

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Animal spirits have certainly been running wild in the stock market of late. The S&P is up over 1,000 points (roughly 25%) in the past 4.5 months. Is this a new era of easy gains as giddy bulls are proclaiming? One investors should jump in and make the most of? Or is this the latest incarnation of irrational exuberance? And is caution warranted instead? For insight, we're fortunate to speak today with Jonathan Treussard, former partner and head of product at Research Associates, and now founder of Treussard Capital Management. Jonathan, who authored academic research on financial bubbles at UCLA, indeed concludes we are in the midst of another such bubble now. Follow Jonathan at https://www.treussard.com

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #bubbles #nvidia #nvda

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Recent inflation reports show that it's proving "sticky", stubbornly refusing to recede down to the target rates that central banks are shooting for.

But rather than simply staying sticky, could it actually start surging again?

Today's guest expert thinks it could due to growing global economic imbalances.

If that happens, what will the implications be?

And can investors to proactively today to prepare?

For answers, we turn to macro and commodities expert Tavi Costa of Crescat Capital.

Follow Tavi at https://www.crescat.net/

SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#inflation #interestrates #commodities

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The global economy is awash in too much debt, which continues to pile up at an exponential rate. History is clear how such eras end. The purchasing power of currency gets destroyed. To understand why the barbarous relic has risen to an all-time high and may have an even better year lying ahead, we have the good fortune to speak today with macro & precious metals expert Egon von Greyerz, Founder of Matterhorn Asset Management & GoldSwitzerland -- now known as vonGreyerz.gold

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#gold #debt #stocks

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As Q1 concludes, corporations are starting to enter the blackout period preventing them from buying back their stock until they've released their quarterly earnings (weeks away for most companies) That temporarily removes THE most important buying support for shares. Combine that with other expected net liquidity reductions in Q2, such as the end of the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) and the Reverse Repo Program (RRP) running dry, and think could get quite bumpy for financial assets. After all, Lance has been expecting a ~10% correction for a while now, and the markets have only moved higher -- increasing the odds of a pullback. For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch today's Weekly Market Recap featuring Lance Roberts.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #buybackofshares #buybacks #marketcorrection

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Portfolio manager & Fed-watcher Axel Merk shares his immediate take-aways from this week's FOMC release and press conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell. He'll also take live Q&A from viewers

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#federalreserve #interestrates #inflation

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Well, the first-ever Thoughtful Money conference was held online this past weekend and I’m delighted to say the event was a real success. That was due primarily to the amazing line-up of speakers who presented and took live audience Q&A throughout the insight-packed 9 hour day. Lacy Hunt delivered the keynote, followed by Stephanie Pomboy, Michael Pento, Ted Oakley, Michael Lebowitz, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Tom McClellan, Brent Johnson, Melody Wright, Rick Rule, Matt Piepenburg and Mark Moss. For those of you who didn’t attend, I thought you’d enjoy hearing some of the conference highlights.

BUY THE REPLAY of the full Thoughtful Money conference here at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference #recession #hardlanding #marketcorrection

_____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Solicitor. We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such. We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor in good standing with the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance. IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities. Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, and money market funds involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods. A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.

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For a long time now, passive capital inflows have powered equities higher, especially the Magnificent 7, as a tremendous percent of every new dollar that flows into the market goes into these 7 stocks. But some of these once-bulletproof companies are now starting to struggle. And those passive capital inflows? There are emerging signs they may be stalling, perhaps even starting to reverse. If true, could that take asset prices down just as powerfully as it drove them higher? To help us find out, as investors have a lot riding on the answer, we have the good fortune of speaking with investor and analyst Bill Fleckenstein of Fleckenstein Capital.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #bonds #marketcrash #shortingstocks

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Stocks pretty much ended the week where they began. Is the raging rally that has propelled stocks higher so far this year finally running out of gas? Quite possibly thinks portfolio manager Lance Roberts. Valuations remain at extremely stretched extremes for many assets including story stocks like Nvida, speculative assets like Bitcoin...and even gold. As he has been predicting for several weeks now, Lance cautions that a 5-10% correct in the markets is highly likely at this point. It's time to hedge your positions and/or take gains. We address all this, as well as inflation, jobs, recession odds, the plight of the middle class, the proposed legislation to limit TikTok, and the requirements & benefits of our constitutional republic form of governance. For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch today's Weekly Market Recap.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #inflation #interestrates #higherforlonger

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To better understand the current economic environment we find ourselves in, it helps to better understand how we ended up here. And few have as detailed an understanding as today's guest, who has been a true insider in both Washington DC and Wall Street for his extremely long & accomplished career. We're fortunate today to speak with former Congressman, economic policymaker & financier, David Stockman. He warns that after decades of profligacy, over increasing our debt 100x since 1970 while only growing our GDP by 25x, we've arrived at a fiscal & monetary "dead end" What does he see ahead? Higher inflation. Recession. Hard times for Main Street. A 50%+ correction for Wall Street. And he expect the pain to last for years because he thinks the Federal Reserve can't ride to the rescue in the same way it has in the past. Follow David at https://www.davidstockmanscontracorner.com/

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #marketcrash #inflation #recession

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Since the October lows, stocks have roared back to record highs, and bonds have risen solidly as US 10yr Treasury yields have dropped from 5% to near 4% Will the bull run continue through the rest of 2024? It is an election year in America after all. Or, have the animal spirits carried assets to unsustainable prices, putting us in danger of a painful sell-off? To find out, we have to good fortune to hear from bond expert Alf Peccatiello of The Macro Compass. He predicts that the higher cost of debt brought on by higher interest rates will indeed start causing many over-leveraged companies to start buckling as $2+ trillion in US corporate debt matures between now and end of 2025. Follow Alf at https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ And if an accredited investor interested in learning more about his new macro fund, email Alf at [email protected]

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #bonds #unemployment #recession

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When today's guest was on this channel back in December, he explained that rising net liquidity was responsible for the surprisingly strong performance seen in both the economy & the financial markets in 2023.

And he predicted that these net liquidity inflows would continue, leading to even higher asset prices ahead.

Well, here in the final month of Q1 2024, things so far have played out according to his script.So where does he liquidity heading for the rest of the year?

To find out, here's another very important conversation today with Michael Howell, founder & CEO of Crossborder Capital.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#liquidity #stocks #recession

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Well, another week, another all-time high in stocks.

Valuations are now stretched to extremes only seen near a bubble top, and volatility is low...too low.

The odds of a pull-back, perhaps a larger correction, are concerningly high enough to make this now a time to hedge your positions, advises portfolio manager Lance Roberts.

In this video, he & I discuss how much more room to run high fliers like Nvidia have, what's happening with bonds, the growing risk of slowing liquidity, the latest (and dumbfounding payrolls jobs data, as well as what trades (if any) Lance's firm made over the past week.

For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this Weekly Market Recap.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#stockmarket #nvdia #jobs

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The media is full of reports that the economy is in fine shape due to a "strong" and "resilient" consumer who has held up much better than expected during the recent years of high inflation and high interest rates. But has the average consumer truly shrugged all that off? Or are they in worse shape than we're being told? For a deep dive into the true state of the US consumer, we'll hear today from Neely Tamminga, researcher, professor and co-founder of the retail consulting firm DISTILL.

Follow Neely on X at @neelytamminga or at her website at https://distilladvisory.com/

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#consumer #retirees #millennials

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As the stock market trades at all-time highs, is this a great time to continue to ride the bull rally? Or has the getting been too good for too long? Is it instead now a good time to take gains and wait for a correction? Today we'll hear answers to these questions from Chance Finucane, Chief Investment Office at Oxbow Advisors.  Oxbow Advisors is a financial advisory firm founded by Ted Oakley that specializes in the needs of high net worth clients. As Ted's CIO, Chance will share with us what kind of market outlook the firm sees ahead for the rest of the year and how it is positioning its client's assets for it. Among other risks, Oxbow is watching the liquidity situation very closely. Globally, fiscal stimulus grew substantially in 2023. But in 2024, its growth is predicted to be much more anemic -- even negative -- across the world. That could be a game changer, triggering both economic slowdown and a potential market correction. Follow Oxbow at https://oxbowadvisors.com/

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The economy is chugging along at more robust GDP growth than many expected. Inflation has moderated and unemployment remains low. Many, including Wall Street for certain, have bought into the soft landing -- or no landing at all -- narrative. We're in a Golidilocks era they tell us. Bears should stop worrying, admit they've been wrong, and join the party. So, is that truly the case? For answer,s we turn to market analyst Gordon Long of MATASII: Macro Analytics & Technical Analysis Strategic Investment Insight

Follow Gordan at https://matasii.com

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #recession #hardlanding #investing

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Investing great Ray Dalio said this week: "The stock market doesn't look very bubbly". But Bank of America just released a new report titled: "The S&P 500 is egregiously expensive" Who's closer to right? Portfolio manager Lance Roberts leans more towards BofA's assessment, though that doesn't mean the current mania in stocks can't run higher. But given that the S&P has risen for 15 out of the past 17 weeks -- a feat not seen since the 1980s -- Lance feels that the current rally is "extremely long in the tooth" and the odds of a correction are elevated. We also talk about inflation, jobs, liquidity flows and the current level of risk commercial real estate poses to the banking system. For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this Weekly Market Recap.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #stockmarket #raydalio #stockmarketcorrection

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Inflation has been called the invisible tax. Economist John Maynard Keynes wrote that, through it, "Governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens" in a process that "engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." Which is why it's very important to know what's happening with inflation and where it's headed. But should we rely on government's reported numbers, as distorted as they are by fudge-factors like hedonics and substitution, and possible manipulation for political optics? No, says today's guest, Oliver Rust, co-founder of Truflation, a new blockchain-based real-time inflation calculation service that uses over 10 million data points to yield a more accurate measurement that represents what households actually experience. We'll find out what he thinks the true inflation rate is and where he sees it heading next. Follow Truflation at https://truflation.com/ or on social media at @truflation Email Oliver at [email protected]

WANT TO PROTECT THE PURCHASING POWER OF YOUR WEALTH? Schedule your free portfolio review with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #inflation #costofliving #prices

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Back in 1996, Federal Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan famously said: "How do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values, which then become subject to unexpected and prolonged contractions?" It was a prophetic question, as the stock market soon after became caught up in the mania of the DotCom bubble, reaching unprecedented levels of overvaluation followed by a precipitous price correction. The Nasdaq didn't return to its 2000 highs until 15 years later. Many are feeling like it's deja vu all over again with the latest run-up in the small number of stocks, colloquially known as the Magnificent 7, driving the market indices to new record highs. Are we in a new era of irrational exuberance, this time driven by the promise of artificial intelligence? And if so, what's the danger this time of another prolonged contraction ensuing? Contact David at https://evergreengavekal.com/meet-david-hay/ Or subscribe to his Substack at https://haymaker.substack.com/

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #stockmarket #marketcrash #marketcorrection

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Well, the average home price in America remains just about as unaffordable as it's ever been. In fact, a recent report from real estate data provider ATTOM examined the median home prices last year for roughly 575 U.S. counties and found that home prices in 99% of those areas are beyond the reach of the average income earner. And to add insult to injury, 30-year fixed mortgage rates just rose back above 7%. So, what lies ahead for home prices in 2024? To find out, we welcome housing analyst Nick Gerli, founder of reventure Consulting and creator of the new reventure app back to the program.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #homeprices #housingmarket #housing

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The S&P is at yet another record high in a week that saw the second-biggest 1-day gain in market cap in history after Nvidia (NVDA) delighted investors with blowout revenue& earnings growth. The bulls are stampeding hard now and FOMO-driven momentum chasers are back. Stocks remain solidly in short-term overbought territory. Valuation metrics of many companies like price-to-earnings & price-to-sales are being stretched, taffy-like, to extremes rarely seen. Are markets back to 'irrational exuberance'? Or is this just a great time for investors to make gains? Portfolio manager Lance Roberts shares how his firm is navigating the feeding frenzy, as well as what trades he's made over the past week.

SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #nvda #nvidia #bullmarket

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One of the most frequent requests from Thoughtful Money viewers is for a discussion focused on investing for income. Well, that's what we're delivering here. Steven Bavaria, author of the book 'The Income Factory: An Investor’s Guide to Consistent Lifetime Returns' joins us to share his framework for constructing a lower-risk portfolio of income-generating assets that include: high dividend stocks, senior bonds, high yield bonds, covered call funds, Master Limited Partnerships, closed-end funds, and more. Follow Steven at https://seekingalpha.com/author/steven-bavaria Or get his book here: https://www.amazon.com/Income-Factory-Investors-Consistent-Lifetime/dp/1260458539

SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #incomeinvesting #dividendstocks #fixedincome

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After decades of moving towards increased globalization, the aftermath of the supply-chain vulnerabilities revealed by the COVID pandemic, as well as the geopolitical fallout from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, are pushing the world order into a more fragmented state. If trade globalization has indeed peaked, what does that mean for the future of the major world economies and for asset prices? To address, we're fortunate to be joined by Bob Elliott, former Investment Committee member at Bridgewater Associates and now CEO and CIO of the investment company Unlimited.

Follow Bob on X/Twitter at @BobEUnlimited On YouTube at youtube.com/ @BobEUnlimited  And on LinkedIn at https://www.linkedin.com/in/ttoillebob/

SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #inflation #globalization #investing

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Inflation for January rose higher than expected. Is this a one-off blip? Or is it a sign that the remaining inflation in the system is "sticky", and going to prove harder for the Federal Reserve to get under control? Some analysis have been warning that we may be falling into the same trap as we did in the 1970s, which saw a series of rollercoaster surges and drops in inflation until Fed Chair Paul Volker was forced to rise interest rates up to a crippling 20% to get prices under control. Is that kind of pain possibly in our future? To find out, we're fortunate to hear today from Michael Lebowitz, portfolio manager at Real Investment Advice. He works closely with Lance Roberts, who regular viewers see on this channel with me every Saturday.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #debt #inflation #bonds

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The S&P 500 is now solidly above 5,000. Stocks have shrugged off "bad" data like higher inflation numbers & disappointing retail sales -- nothing at the moment seems able to dampen Wall Street's euphoria. And little surprise, retail investors are now piling into the markets, eager not to miss the party.

These are classic late-stage signs of a topping market.

Portfolio manager Lance Roberts calculates that a pullback is now highly likely, though he warns he would not be surprised if the S&P ran up another 100 points from here before it arrives. Animal spirits (i.e., investor emotions) are now fully in the driver's seat.

He also shares the many worrisome price and technical divergences he's now seeing that add validation to an impending correction.

And as usual, he shares the trades his firm has made this week.

For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this video.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#inflation #population #recession

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Narrative drives so much of the thinking today, especially when it comes to the markets. To prevent becoming unduly influenced by it, it's important to ground ourselves in data. We should ask first: what is the data saying? And then we can judge whether the current prevailing narratives are consistent with it. So, what is the current data telling us? To find out, we're fortunate to speak today with Chris Hamilton, publisher of Econimica. If you're not familiar with the name, I'm confident you've come across a number of the prodigious amount of charts it publishes across a wide range of macro topics like the economy, demographics & the housing market. And the one he's most worried about? Demographics. The USA's population is set to start shrinking for the first time ever by 2035. That's just a little more than 10 years away. Follow Chris at https://econimica.blogspot.com/ Or on Twitter at @Econimica

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #population #demographics #immigration

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The officially-reported headline GDP, jobs and inflation numbers look pretty rosy right now. But how much of that is due to actual, healthy sustainable economic activity vs extraordinary government intervention? Deficit spending as a percentage of GDP is currently at heights not seen outside of major wartimes and government jobs have surged, total federal employment reached its highest level in at least 20 years last year. Is the government putting its thumb on the scale here? And if so, is that a good or bad thing? To discuss, we're fortunate to be joined by Michael Green, portfolio manager & chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #stocks #liquidity #recession

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According to the official data - be it economic growth, disinflation or jobs -- things could hardly be better. But if you talk to a regular person on the street, they're likely to tell you that times aren't that great, and getting tougher. Why is the prevailing narrative so disconnected from the reality on the ground? And where are things likely to head from here? To tackle this conundrum, we're fortunate to welcome macro analyst and interviewer extraordinaire Grant Williams to the program.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#wealthgap #wealthinequality #liquidity

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The S&P finally hit a new all-time high of 5,000 this week.

So does this milestone give the market the green light to rocket higher?

Or is this the right time to lock in recent gains by starting to sell?

Portfolio manager Lance Roberts thinks the latter is more likely, especially as the S&P remains quite overbought here from a technical perspective. Which is why his firm is going to begin selling off positions starting Monday.

He provides the details of his selling strategy in today's Weekly Market Recap.

We also discuss solutions for the unaffordable housing market, Lance's warning to retirees, the US' unsustainable fiscal path, and potential success strategies for job seekers.

For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this video.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#retirement #housingmarket #jobs

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Markets seem pretty convinced that 2024 is experiencing, in the words of US Treasury secretary Janet Yellen, a soft landing. But what if everyone is wrong? And if they are wrong, which assets are cheap right now and what will happen to the market? Steen Jacobsen, Chief Economist and Chief Investment Officer of Saxo Bank, has been pointedly asking these questions of late. And today, we're going to hear what he thinks the answers are.

Follow Steen at analysis.saxo

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #marketcrash #election #interestrates

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A few days ago, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee released its latest policy decision, followed by a press conference by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, and reiterated that it thinks it's making good progress getting inflation under control while protecting the jobs market. Soon after Powell's conference, in a live event available only to Thoughtful Money’s premium Substack subscribers, noted Fed-watcher Axel Merk gave his breakdown of the Fed’s latest guidance, and then fielded live Q&A from viewers. Here’s the replay video of that discussion with Axel. Enjoy!

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #federalreserve #fed #interestrates

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The bears had every opportunity to break the markets over the past few years: From a global pandemic with a broad economic shut down, to a resulting 40 year high in inflation followed by the most aggressive rate cycle in history. But the bears failed. The markets are back at all-time highs. And likely to power a lot higher from here, predicts technical analyst Sven Henrich of NorthmanTrader.com, which he knows is an unpopular prediction among those skeptical of today's lofty market valuations. Sven himself doesn't like it! Sven recently released a report titled 'The Cynics Guide To Markets', laying out the rationale for this sanguine market outlook, which I'll ask him to summarize for us in today's conversation. Follow Sven at https://northmantrader.com/

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #bullmarket #federalreserve #stocks

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The S&P 500 is back to an all-time high and the NASDAQ is a hairs'-breadth away from the same.

Stocks have started 2024 strong and appear now to be in a positive-feedback loop, where higher prices entice more buyers, leading to still higher prices. Multiple expansion is underway and stocks are remain quite overbought in the short-term.

How much longer can the melt-up last for?

Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and Adam Taggart discuss this, as well as the ramifications of this week's FOMC release and press conference by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, the new (and hard-to-believe) payrolls data, and the revision higher in Q1 GDP forecasted by the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow service.

And, as usual, Lance shares the trades his firm made this week.

Here's the link to the 1970's news coverage Adam mentions in his beached whale story: https://youtu.be/V6CLumsir34?si=k-GiiDds3Rdjbpvc

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#federalreserve #jobsreport #bullmarket

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The S&P and Nasdaq are back to all-time highs. And the recently-released Q4 GDP data beat analysts expectations, positively, by a long shot. So are we in the clear? Is the soft landing camp being proven right? Have we been able to side step the Lag Effects so many expected from the Fed's aggressive campaigns of rates hikes and Quantitative Tightening? Is inflation indeed on its way to being tamed this year? For answers, we have the great fortune to sit down today with one of the greatest living economists, Dr. Lacy Hunt, former Senior Economist to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, as well as several of the world's largest global banks. He now serves as Executive Vice President and Chief Economist of Hoisington Investment Management Company.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #recession #inflation #deflation

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One of the asset classes I get the most requests to do an interview on is farmland. It's a form of real estate investment that yields cash flow by producing commodities -- all attractive qualities to investors worried about inflation and/or the loss of purchasing power of fiat currencies. But how does it perform vs other asset classes? And how does one invest in farmland without being forced to become a farmer? For answers, we're fortunate to talk today with Craig Wichner, Managing Director of Farmland LP, which manages over 15,000 acres, farming them sustainably at scale.

REGISTER FOR CRAIG'S FREE WEBINAR on Feb 6, 2024 by emailing [email protected]

#farmland #soil #organicfarming

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According to the latest government data, the US economy is growing faster than expected, inflation is largely under control, jobs are plentiful and consumer households remain "resilient". So from this perspective, times are good. But talk to real consumers and you hear a very different story. The cost of living is at crippling levels, forcing consumers to stop saving and put an increasing amount of their living costs on revolving credit -- which currently charges record high APRs. Consumers looking for new jobs report the market is not nearly as hungry for workers as the government numbers suggest. Instead, hiring freezes and layoffs are prevalent. From their view, times are tight and getting tougher. Which story is the more accurate one? And should we expect things to get better or worse from here? For answers, we're fortunate to turn to Danielle Park, president and portfolio manager for Venable Park Investment Counsel, Inc, where she manages millions for some of Canada’s wealthiest families. She's also proprietor of the daily financial website JugglingDynamite.com

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #recession #housingmarket #marketcrash

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NEW!! SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com The S&P just hit a new all-time high for 5 straight days over the past week. It missed doing so again on Friday by the thinnest of whiskers (0.07%) Portfolio manager Lance Roberts says it’s clear we’re now in what’s called a “bullish stampede” in stocks, where rising prices entice more investors into the market, leading to even higher prices, and so on… It’s a lot of fun if you’re long. But realize that pure emotion is driving the action, not logic. Which is why bullish stampedes tend to be short-lived (a few weeks, maybe) and often end by reversing into a bearish stampede. Should investors try to ride these manic trends for all their worth? Or step aside of the stampede? In this video Lance’s shares his thoughts, as well as the trades his firm made this week. #stocks #bullmarket #bearmarket

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A month ago, energy analyst Doomberg published a report titled "Peak Cheap Oil Is A Myth", and a few weeks back, I interviewed him about it. To say it ruffled feathers would be a huge understatement. Those in the Peak Cheap Oil camp have clamored for a chance to respond to Doomberg's claims, and that's exactly what we're going to do here in this video. Today, Adam Rozencwajg, Managing Partner of Goering & Rozencwajg, natural resource investors, sits down for a discussion with Doomberg -- which will moderated by yours truly -- to debate, or better "co-explore", the question: Looking at the next 50 years, is the threat of Peak Cheap Oil fact or overblown fear?

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel, including this interview with Melody. Go to https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ #oil #peakoil #energy

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The US real estate market remains frozen.

Transactions are at multi-decade lows, mortgage rates remain painfully high and home prices are at near record-levels of unaffordability.

As we enter 2024, should we expect things to get better for housing, or worse?For answers, we turn to mortgage lending expert & housing analyst Melody Wright, who has been busy visiting many of America's most popular housing markets to develop a true boots-on-the-ground understanding of where the trends are headed.

Melody expects the spring selling season to finally start unlocking "true price discovery" for the US housing market, and predicts a national aggregate price decline as the year progresses.

Follow Melody on X/Twitter at @m3_melody

Or on YouTube at https://www.youtube.com/@m3_melody

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel, including this interview with Melody. Go to https://adamtaggart.substack.com/

#housingmarket #homeprices #realestate

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The S&P 500 index closed at an all-time high yesterday (1.19.24).How much of a bullish signal is that for stocks for 2024?

Maybe not as big of one as many think. Remember, over the past 2 years, stocks have returned 0%.

Stocks are not at oversold reading at this point, meaning that there's not a lot of room to run higher before they become overbought.

Plus, the potential looming challenges of the draining of the Reverse Repo Program (RRP) and the expiry of the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) could pour cold water on the market's euphoria.

To learn more about Lance's event on Sat Jan 27, 2024, go to https://www.eventbrite.com/e/ria-advisors-economic-summit-tickets-703288784687

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel. Go to https://adamtaggart.substack.com/

#stocks #reverserepo #btfp

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Rumors are suddenly flying fast and furious that the Federal Reserve will be soon ending its campaign of Quantitiave Tightening (aka QT). This is on top of the 3 rate cuts it recently guided the market to expect in 2024. Is the end of QT indeed imminent? If so what will the implications be? To discuss that, as well as the other major macro trends expected to impact markets most in 2024, we're fortunate to sit down with analyst Jim Bianco, founder of Bianco Research. Jim thinks the Fed is now scrambling to cut rates and end QT because of the brewing potential for a liquidity crisis once the Reverse Repo Program is fully drained.

Follow Jim at https://www.biancoresearch.com/

Or on X/Twitter at  @BiancoResearch 

And check out his new ETF, ticker: WTBN

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel, including this interview with Jim. Go to https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ #reverserepo #inflation #federalreserve

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It's a tough time to be an investor.

There are cross-currents galore in the macro data, the financial headlines, policy decision-making, and market technicals.

After the easy decade that followed the Great Financial Crisis where markets dependably churned higher year after year and you could make money just going long pretty much any stock or ETF and "buying the dips" along the way -- suddenly it's taking a lot more hard work to earn a good return.

What are the keys to investing success in today's more uncertain environment?

For guidance, we're fortunate to talk with Andy Constan, founder of the macroeconomic research firm Damped Spring. His work there builds on his earlier tenure at elite firms like Solomon Brothers, Bridgewater and Brevan Howard.

He sees the likelihood of a 'soft landing' as low given today's economic challenges.

And in his explanation, he delivers a detailed summary of how the Reverse Repo Programm (RRP) and the Bank Funding Term Program (BFTP) work.

Follow Andy at https://dampedspring.com/

Or on X/Twitter at @dampedspring

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel, including this interview with Andy.

#bftp #softlanding #reverserepo

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The real money in investing is made by those who perceive what the markets are likely to do tomorrow, and then position themselves today to profit from that future action. Today's guest, Lakshman Achuthan, co-founded the Economic Cycle Research Institute specifically to identify these key turning points for investors. Which key turning points are in play right now? And how can we best take advantage of them? Lakshman predicts the slowing growth (e.g., recession) and a return of inflation will be the key themes of 2024. Investors should prepare for both in their portfolio positioning. Follow Lakshman at https://www.businesscycle.com Or on LinkedIN at https://www.linkedin.com/company/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel, including this interview with Lakshman. #recession #inflation #businesscycle

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Portfolio manager Lance Roberts has long stated that it's not the inversion of the yield curve that means recession is near, it's when the curve un-inverts. Well, we're now starting to see the first un-inversions. The 2s-30s yield curve has steepened and is no longer inverted. Does that mean the recession countdown has begun? Lance and I discuss this as well as this week's surge in the S&P, the latest on the bond market, the just-released December inflation data, the new Bitcoin ETF, and, as usual, Lances' firm's latest trades. Learn more about Lance's event on Sat Jan 27th in Houston at https://www.eventbrite.com/e/ria-advisors-economic-summit-tickets-703288784687

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel #inflation #yieldcurve #recession2024

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How stable is our current system -- economically, geo-politically and socially? The markets seem confident it's quite stable. But you don't have to look that hard to find evidence of stress fractures: from recessionary leading indicators, to struggling consumer households, to the frozen real estate market, to the breakdown of trade through the Red Sea, to the loss of faith in once-premier establishment brands like Harvard, to the polarization and cynicism of this year's US presidential election. What's more likely to happen from here: ascent or breakdown? To discuss, we're fortunate to welcome monetary and macro analyst John Rubino, author and co-author of numerous books including The Money Bubble with James Turk. Sign up for John's Substack at https://rubino.substack.com/

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel #recession #bearmarket #layoffs

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Well it's a new year and with it, I'm doing my best to bring important new voices into the discuss here at Thoughtful Money. And today we're fortunate to sit down with one of them: Cem Karsan, Founder, CIO, and Managing Principal of Kai Volatility Advisors, widely known as @jam_croissant on X/Twitter. He's one of the more requested names I've had from this audience and I'm thrilled we've been finally able to make an interview with him happen.And he thinks we're early on in a new secular change that will make the coming decade look and feel very different in the economy, markets and society from what we've become accustomed to over the past several decades.

And in the near term, he sees inflation likely to resume again, in no small part due to the Fed's efforts to engineer a 'soft landing' this year.

Follow Cem at https://www.kaivolatility.com

Or on X/Twitter at @jam_crossaint

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel #stagflation #inflation #recession

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Greed and exuberance returned to Wall Street as we ended 2023 and welcomed the start of 2024. Markets are trading near all-time highs, the Fed has switched to singing a more dovish tune, and confidence in a soft landing -- or no landing -- for the economy is high. Did we manage to emerge from all the chaos and distortion of the past few years without a major reckoning? Have we dodged the bullet of recession? For answers, we're lucky to talk today with top Thoughtful Money fan-favorites Stephanie Pomboy, economic & financial analyst and publisher of the respected research firm Macro Mavens.Perhaps more than anything else, she fears our growing culture of moral hazard, metastasizing from Wall Street now into Main Street, may end up being the trigger of the next economic crisis. Follow Stephanie at https://macromavens.com/ Or on X/Twitter at @spomboy

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel #moralhazard #recession #inflation

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2024 has seen the worst start to the year for stocks in 20 years. Is this just a natural pullback from overbought extremes, or is there something more worrisome afoot?

Portfolio manager Lance Roberts gives his answer in today's Weekly Market Recap. We also discuss the new payroll report that beat expectations, as well as the different story that appears when looking "under the hood" at the component data.

And as usual, Lance also shares his most firm's most recent trades.

Learn more about Lance's conference on Sat Jan 27, 2024 at https://www.eventbrite.com/e/ria-advisors-economic-summit-tickets-703288784687

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel

#stocks #jobs #investing

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Nothing happens in an economy without energy.  And despite the current efforts & hopes to de-carbonize our energy systems, the world remains heavily dependent on oil -- especially as the dominant transport fuel in moving goods from point A to point B. Oil has had a rocky ride the past several years, with its price ranging from a high of $120/barrel to briefly negative prices at the height of the pandemic chaos. Russia's invasion of Ukraine disrupted global trade of oil, and so, to a lesser extent (so far at least), has the resurgence of war in the Middle East. What does 2024 look to have in store for this essential fuel? For answers, we're fortunate to speak with the energy experts at Doomberg today. The exceptional quality of their newsletter has made them the #1-ranked financial Substack in the world, for good reason.

Follow Doomberg at https://doomberg.substack.com/

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel

#oilprice #oil #energy

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When I think back on all the experts I interviewed last year, the one whose market predictions played out most accurately is Darius Dale, founder & CEO of 42 Macro. So what do his models tell him is likely to happen in 2024? In this video we ask the man himself.Follow Darius at https://42macro.com/Or on X/Twitter @dariusdale42

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel #bullmarket #stocks #bonds

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The past few years have been full of surprises, often going the exact opposite way that Wall Street expected at the start of each year. Well, as we prepare to enter 2024, it may help to tap the expertise of those investors who have been around the longest and been the most successful. High on that list is James Rogers, legendary international investor, financial commentator and author of several best-selling books on wealth-building. In this interview, Jim explains why he believes the next market correction will be the worst of his lifetime, and why he sees higher inflation and higher interest rates ahead, as well.

LAST CHANCE! SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get his Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel. But do so before the price increases on Jan 1st 2024! #inflation #interestrates #bearmarket

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We're all aware of how the pandemic threw the economy and financial markets into unprecedented disarray. And for the past two years, investors have eagerly awaited them to return back to a state of normalcy. But has "normal" changed vs the pre-COVID days? How much of the old playbook no longer works well, if at all, in today's world? For answers, we're fortunate to speak today with market veteran Kevin Muir, founder and editor of The Macro Tourist, the highly-acclaimed newsletter that currently ranks as the #12th largest financial Substack in the world. Kevin sees the impact of the ongoing fiscal stimulus as being much more impactful than investors currently understand. In terms of spending into the economy, he thinks the fiscal flood has just begun.

Follow Kevin at https://themacrotourist.com/

Or on X/Twitter at @kevinmuir

TIME IS RUNNING OUT! SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get his Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel. But do so before the price increases on Jan 1st 2024! #recession #inflation #fiscalspending

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Wall Street was extremely pessimistic heading into 2023, and the year surprised to the upside. Here at the end of the year, markets are now brimming with optimism and the S&P is trading at an all-time high. Is the momentum likely to continue? Or will 2024 be another surprise year for investors, this time to the downside? For an analyst's perspective, we turn to Simon White, Macro Strategist at Bloomberg and co-founder of the investment-advisory firm Variant Perception.

ACT SOON! SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get his Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel. But do so before the price increases on Jan 1st 2024! #inflation #bullmarket #liquidity

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2023, a year nearly everyone expected a recession, has instead seen impressive economic growth and the markets power to all-time highs. How did this happen? Especially as the Federal Reserve kept interest rates above 5% while conducting Quantitative Tightening? In a word: liquidity. Liquidity steadily rose throughout 2023 and, like an incoming ocean tide, rose all boats. How? Why? Where is it coming from? And if it's such a key driver of asset prices, where is it headed from here? To find out, we're going to have a very important conversation today with Michael Howell, founder & CEO of Crossborder Capital.

Get Michael's book Capital Wars at https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Wars-Rise-Global-Liquidity/dp/3030392872

Subscribe to his Substack at https://capitalwars.substack.com

Or follow him on X/Twitter at @crossbordercap

ACT SOON! SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get his Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel. But do so before the price increases on Jan 1st 2024! #liquidity #bullmarket #stocks2024

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In this final Weekly Market Recap of 2024, portfolio manager Lance Roberts explains why a short-term correction in stocks (and bonds, too) is highly likely. They've simply move so far, so quickly that technically-speaking they are at dangerously high overbought extremes. He thinks such a pull-back will be short-lived though. There's little standing in the way of stock moving even higher as we enter Q1, especially now that the Federal Reserve is guiding it will ease more than previously expected. Plus, a recession still looks unlikely anytime soon, jobs are still solid and inflation is coming down -- it's a pretty positive cocktail for financial assets right now.

ACT SOON! SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get his Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel. But do so before the price increases on Jan 1st 2024! #stocks #investing2024 #federalreserve

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While 2023 was a much better year for stocks and bonds, the housing market has fared less well. Instead, 2023 was the year gravity caught up with home prices. They've stopped rising nationally for the most part, and certain once red-hot cities are now starting to see clear declines. Is this the Wile E. Coyote moment before prices start plummeting under today's high mortgage rates? Or will the housing market prove resilient as we enter 2024? To find out, we'll talk with real estate analyst Lance Lambert, former real estate editor for Fortune and now co-founder & editor of ResiClub.

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel #housingmarket #realestate #mortgage

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By many calculations, the stock market has returned to rich valuations. Following one of the best Novembers in market history and now juiced by fresh optimism for rate cuts -- now 3 of them -- in 2024, how valid are concerns that stocks are becoming increasingly overpriced and a pullback is warranted? To find out, we have the good fortune to talk today with Cameron Dawson Chief Investment Officer at NewEdge Wealth Follow Cameron on X/Twitter: @camerondawson Or on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameron-dawson-cfa-89754b22/

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get Adam's Notes for all the interviews with recent experts who have appeared on this channel, including this one with Cameron Dawson #stocks #recession #interestrates

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In my recent interview with Felix Zulauf he mentioned that we are shifting from a unipolar world order into a multipolar world dis-order.The majority of folks who watch this Thoughtful Money channel are primarily from the US, Europe and Australia, so to provide a perspective from a point of view outside of the West, we're fortunate to hear from Michael Every, Global Strategist at Rabobank, who is based out of Singapore.Michael is concerned that the playbook nations are familiar with does not apply to the future dynamics ahead. Globalization is reversing in many corners of the world, and nationalism is on the rise. The tools used by economic central planners are becoming less and less effective. A new operating framework is needed.Will we adopt in time to avoid conflict and crisis?Michael is not optimistic. He thinks we may eventually discover and adopt the right policies...but likely only after we've exhausted every other option.Follow Michael on LinkedIN at https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-every-38983214/?originalSubdomain=sg

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel

#globalization #centralbanks #economy

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Lance Robert's portfolio co-manager Michael Lebowitz kindly steps in this week while Lance is away. Like many, he was caught off guard by the Federal Reserve's surprisingly dovish guidance this week. There's not an obvious reason why the Fed changed its stance on interest rate cuts so swiftly. Just two weeks ago, Jerome Powell was saying that his committee was not even talking about rate cuts yet. So what changed? Could the plans to cut rates more aggressively than previously guided be a sign the Fed is spooked by something Powell isn't telling us about? Like greater odds of a recession ahead? Michael and Thoughtful Money host Adam Taggart discuss this, as well as the future of inflation and interest rates, liquidity, the outlook for bonds, stocks and the markets in general. Michael concludes by sharing his firm's latest trade in response to the Fed's words.

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel #bonds #interestrates #federalreserve

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Yesterday the Federal Reserve Market Committee announced it has chosen to keep the Federal Funds Rate steady for now, but when that changes, a rate cut is much more likely than a rate hike. In fact, the FOMC now expects it's probable it will cut rates three times in 2024. Following the release of this announcement, Fed Chair Jerome Powell held a press conference where he clarified the Fed's thinking. Powell projected a largely positive vibe, pleased that inflation is declining, economic growth is slowing from the frothy levels seen in Q3, and that the labor market is "coming back into balance". He no longer expects a recession in 2024. Stocks, bonds, commodities and nearly ever other financial asset shot higher on the news. So, is this this "all clear"? Is it time for the bulls to run? Or may history repeat itself, as most recessions follow the first rate cuts made after a hiking regime? To find out, we talk with experienced Fed-watcher Axel Merk of Merk Investments, and take live audience Q&A. Follow Axel on X/Twitter at  @AxelMerk 

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/

#federalreserve #inflation #interestrates

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Bonds yields have weakened recently, making November the best month for global bonds since 2008 and for US bonds since 1985.

Is this the start of a recovery in the bond market, which has been battered and bruised for the past 3 years running?

Or, is this just a temporary reprieve?

To find out, we have to good fortune to hear from bond expert Alf Peccatiello of The Macro Compass. 

Alf sees inflation coming down, which is making today's 4-5% Treasury yields extremely attractive to today's large institutional buyers who want to lock them in. He sees bonds prices doing very well next year.

Alf has just launched a new course education the regular investor about bonds and how to invest in them:

https://themacrocompass.org/courses/#bond-market-course The first 50 buyers can get 20% OFF by using the discount code ''ADAM'' at checkout:

#bonds #interestrates #inflation

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As 2023 begins to draw to a close, investors are feeling substantially better than they were are the start of the year. And as we enter 2024 where is all this headed? Will today's asset prices shrug off the growing litany of macro concerns and power still higher in the new year? Or will 2024 see a return to the downside? I can't think of anyone better to ask these questions to than today's expert, Felix Zulauf, founder & CEO of Zulauf Consulting, who presciently predicted we have entered the "decade of the roller coasters" where markets will rise and fall dramatically as the natural forces of deflation battle it out with the rescue efforts of the central planners. Felix manages a prodigious amount in assets, so he doesn't have the luxury of an opinion without conviction. He has a strong picture of where we are in the current market cycle & is allocating capital accordingly. Follow Felix at felixzulauf.com

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get Adam's Notes for this interview with Felix, plus all the other recent experts who have appeared on this channel #marketcrash #bondyields #recession

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With such a massive run-up in stocks and bonds in November, should we still expect a Santa Claus rally in the markets this month? Or did it already happen? Portfolio manager Lance Roberts thinks that may be the case, or if we do get one, it will be quite mild. Unless a pullback happens soon, which Lance thinks is quite possible. He's reducing his long exposure and waiting for a pullback at this point. In this week's market recap, Lance and I talk about the strong correlation between financial asset prices and net liquidity. For much of this year, "stealth" liquidity from sources like the BTFP, the Reverse Repo program, and fiscal deficit spending have helped buoy stocks to near record highs. Will that continue in 2024? We also talk about the odds for recession risk, which are becoming cloudier. Experts are now quite divided on the matter. With such uncertainty, how should an investor consider positioning their portfolio? Lance shares how he, as a capital manager clients, is doing so now.

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel #recession #bonds #liquidity

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Many of the guests appearing on this program recently, though perhaps none more than I, have warned that the Lag Effect will eventually catch up with the economy. That the tighter monetary conditions, the higher cost of capital, the rising lending standards -- are all increasing the gravitational force pulling downwards on economic growth. That at some point, "something important, or multiple somethings, will start to break" Is that indeed the likely scenario from here? And if so, is 2024 likely to be the year the Lag Effect arrives in force? To find out, we're fortunate to speak today with CEO & Chief Strategist for QI Research LLC and author of the book "Fed Up: An Insider's Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America" Follow Danielle at https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/ or at https://qiresearch.com/ Or on X/Twitter at @dimartinobooth

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get Adam's Notes form this interview with Danielle, plus all the other recent experts who have appeared on this channel #federalreserve #inflation #recession

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There are a lot of narratives flying around right now regarding the economy, the stock market, recession risk, jobs, inflation and what's going to happen next year. Given the recent 5%+ Q3 GDP print and one of the best Novembers on record for both stocks and bonds, bulls are back to saying "everything is awesome" again & 2024 will be a great year for making money Bears on the other hand point to near-record levels of overvaluation, recessionary leading indicators and warn the inevitable arrival of the lag effect will see the economy in recession next year and the return of a bear market. When sentiment is full of such crosscurrents, it's prudent to seek the counsel of those who take. cold and calculated look at the data, to see what "is" vs what our biases may want us to see. Which is why we're fortunate to speak with macro analyst Wolf Richter of WolfStreet.com, who will share with us what the charts he regularly compiles are telling him about the true state of today's economy & markets.

To learn what's in store for this new Thoughtful Money channel, SUBSCRIBE FOR FREE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ #recession #inflation #economy

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Like many, today's guest was quite concerned entering 2023 that a recession was all but inevitable. But it never showed up. As the year nears its end and a new one readies to begin, did we indeed dodge a bullet? Or has the recession only been delayed, now ready to make landfall in 2024, perhaps with even stronger destructive force than had it arrived sooner? For answers, we turn to the highly popular and always informed money manager and macro analyst Michael Pento.

To learn what's in store for this new Thoughtful Money channel, SUBSCRIBE FOR FREE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ #recession #marketcrash #deflation

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In this week's market recap, portfolio manager Lance Roberts warns that both stocks and bonds remain short-term overbought here and are likely to experience a near-term selloff. After that thought, he does expect stocks to rise again into the end of the month, perhaps making new highs for the year. He also notes that as asset prices rise, it loosens financial conditions which goes against the Fed's tightening efforts. Assets are likely rising in part to the substantial liquidity pumped into the system by a ~$200 billion recent rise in central banking reserves, as well as fiscal deficit spending. These are inflationary and definitely make the Fed's job of taming inflation below 2% harder. Lance and Adam also discuss his market outlook for 2024, bonds, his recent trades and how investors should approach risk mitigation in their portfolios.

To learn what's in store for this new Thoughtful Money channel, SUBSCRIBE FOR FREE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ #inflation #bonds #stockmarketcorrection

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Recently, I was invited to host a panel discussion on “The Future of Money: at the New Orleans Investment Conference, which has a well-earned reputation for attracting the world’s foremost authorities on geopolitics, economics and investments. I’ve moderated this panel for several years running and, while the talent is elite, it has become a gathering of friendly peers who – with goodwill and respect – reunite to peel away as much of the fog obscuring the road ahead as they can, giving us a clearer view of where our currency & money is headed. As usual Danielle DiMartino Booth, Jim Rickards and Russ Gray were there. And this year we had the pleasure of welcoming Lyn Alden to the group. I’ll start the replay of this panel discussion in a moment, but first let me note that this panel was just a single hour of the 5 DAYS WORTH of excellent presentations, debates, panels and workshops that just concluded at this year’s New Orleans Conference. If you like the video I’m about to show you, you can purchase the replays for the ENTIRE conference at https://neworleansconference.com/tm #dollar #money #currency

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The last time Simon Hunt was on this channel, he predicted a rocky road ahead for the global economy, that will eventually culminate in the massive pile of $trillions in global unserviceable debt going into default causing a worldwide depression by 2025. Since his last appearance, the markets have become a lot more optimistic, US Q3 GDP hit 4.9% and inflation has marching downwards to 3% -- all positives. Though on the negative side, US deficits & debt balances have soared, leading economic indicators have fallen to recessionary levels, and the Middle East has been plunged into war. Today we'll ask commodities expert and geopolitical analyst Simon Hunt how any of this impacts his dire forecast for 2024/2025. Follow Simon at his website https://www.simon-hunt.com/

To learn what's in store for this new Thoughtful Money channel, SUBSCRIBE FOR FREE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ #recession #depression #marketcrash

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Here at the end of 2023, confidence in the economy and the financial markets is a lot higher than it was at this time a year ago. Is that confidence justified? Or will 2024 deliver a rude awakening? To find out, we turn to the experience and wisdom of financial advisor Ted Oakley, managing partner & founder of Oxbow Advisors. Ted has over 40 years experience helping clients, mostly high net worth families, protect and build wealth through good times and bad. We'll find out how he's currently positioning his clients assets for the coming year. Ted is worried that the "worst part" of the bear market that started in 2022 still lies ahead, likely in the first two quarters of 2024. To follow Ted, go to: https://oxbowadvisors.com/

To learn what's in store for this new Thoughtful Money channel, SUBSCRIBE FOR FREE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ #bearmarket #recession #stockcrash

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To learn what's in store for this new Thoughtful Money channel, SUBSCRIBE FOR FREE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/In this week's market recap, portfolio manager Lance Roberts reiterates his call for a near-term pullback in both stocks in bonds, as both look overbought given how quickly prices for both have recently risen. After the pullback, which he expects sometime between now & mid-Dec, Lance thinks it's more likely than not that stocks power to new highs by the end of the year. How they'll perform in 2024, though, is a totally different story... Lance and Adam also discuss oil, the US dollar, Bitcoin and the latest recession odds. They also review the wisdom of many of today's most successful living investors, who warn that most retail investors underperform due either to poorly assessing risk and/or letting their emotions drive their decision-making. To read the article by Lance cited during this discussion, go to: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/speculator-or-investor-whats-the-difference/ Lance also shares his trades for the week. #stocks #bonds #investing

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When the game changes, the old rules don't apply and to succeed, you need to adopt a new playbook. Well, there's a good argument to be made that the investing gameboard has materially changed in the post-COVID era. But so far, both Wall Street and regular investors are still playing by the old rules. Is this a recipe for disaster? To find out, we have the good fortune today to hear from Jesse Fedler, founder & Editor of The Felder Report, a highly respected market research firm. He written a lot lately on the "sea change" the economy and financial markets have recently experienced. We'll ask him what the biggest implications will be & how investors should adapt to them.

Follow Jesse at https://thefelderreport.com/ or on X/Twitter at @jessefelder

To learn what's in store for this new Thoughtful Money channel, SUBSCRIBE FOR FREE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ #recession #interestrates #techstocks

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In this video, we're witness to a "meeting of the minds" between two top monetary experts, who each will argue their predicted path for the US dollar from here. We're very fortunate to be joined by Brent Johnson, CEO of Santiago Capital and developer of The Dollar Milkshake Theory, which will serve as the foundation upon which today's discussion will be built. Serving as a counterpoint perspective will be Matthew Piepenburg, Commercial Director at Matterhorn Asset Management AG - GoldSwitzerland This is not a debate so much as a "co-exploration", as there are many points our speakers agree on. But there are definitely a few where they see things differently. And over the next hour, we'll drill down together on those points of differentiation, to see if we can't make the path ahead for the US dollar clearer to discern.

Follow Brent on Twitter at @SantiagoAuFund or at https://santiagocapital.com

Follow Matt at https://goldswitzerland.com

To learn what's in store for this new Thoughtful Money channel, SUBSCRIBE FOR FREE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ #dollar #money #currency

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Heading into 2024, we may be witnessing a change in a number of trends. The October CPI numbers suggest inflation is moderating faster than expected. If that proves true, this may mean the Federal Reserve's aggressive campaign of hiking interest rates is over. And if that is true, the 3-year beating the bond market has suffered may be coming to an end. As for stocks, they've been powered higher all year by the Magnificent 7 -- Apple, Google/Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Nvidia, Meta and Tesla.. But even there, we may be witnessing a regime change. To clarify whether these are indeed real & significant trend shifts, Thoughtful Money host Adam Taggart sits down in today's video to speak with Fred Hickey, editor of the highly respected newsletter The High Tech Strategist, which Fred has been publishing since 1987. If you're interested in signing up for Fred's newsletter, send an email to [email protected] Or follow him on Twitter at @htsfhickey

To learn what's in store for this new Thoughtful Money channel, SUBSCRIBE FOR FREE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ #magnificent7 #techstocks #inflation

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Yes, the Saturday weekly market reviews between Adam Taggart & Lance Roberts are back! In today's video, Lance shares his expectation that the rally in stocks will likely continue through year end, though he predicts a short-term selloff is both likely and welcome at this point. Bonds are starting to finally behave the way he has been forecasting for the past several months. He expects them to be largely range-bound (UST10yr between 4.0-4.5%) for the coming quarter or two, and then expects prices to rise by mid-2024 as yields resume declining. Lance concludes by asking Adam the most-commonly asked questions about the new Thoughtful Money venture. Chances are, if you have questions, Adam answers them here. Follow Lance at https://realinvestmentadvice.com/ Follow Adam at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ #bonds #stockmarket #adamtaggart

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The world has watched intently as the world's most influential central bank, the Federal Reserve, has implemented the most aggressive interest rate hike campaign in history -- on a % change over time basis. But that campaign may now be over. And if it is, it suggests opportunity in the long Treasury bond market. To find out just how much of an opportunity, we sit down today with highly-respected economist & award-winning researcher David Rosenberg, founder & president of Rosenberg Research. Learn more about David's work at https://rosenbergresearch.com/ #recession #bonds #inflation

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Macro & markets expert Dr Marc Faber returns for Part 2 of this interview to explain his concerns why he sees democracy increasingly under threat around the world -- and mostly from within. Sadly, he expects geopolitical competition, government overreach, and the diminished prospects of the masses to result in increasing deterioration of our democratic system. Social unrest and/or war may be the inevitable result. Follow Marc at https://www.gloomboomdoom.com/

(Recorded 11.6.23)

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Macro & markets expert Dr Marc Faber predicts that the "heavenly" returns the financial markets have delivered over the past 20+ years are now a relic of history. Going forward he expects a much more "disappointing" environment for investors over the coming decade. He warns this will happen at a time when the world will also see weakening economic growth, rising geopolitical threats, and mounting social unrest. Those who will fare best during this period will be those who position themselves and their money prudently now, in advance. Follow Marc at https://www.gloomboomdoom.com/

(Recorded 11.6.23)

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Michael Spence, recipient of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, sits down with Thoughtful Money host Adam Taggart to discuss the findings of his new book "Permacrisis: A Plan to Fix a Fractured World" which he co-authored with Mohamed El-Erian & Gordon Brown. Spence explains how at the heart of today’s "permacrisis" are broken approaches to growth, economic management, and governance. While these approaches are broken, they are not beyond repair. An explanation of where we’ve gone wrong, and a provocative, inspiring plan to do nothing less than change the world, Permacrisis: A Plan to Fix a Fractured World, written with Reid Lidow, sets out how we can prevent crises and better manage the future for the benefit of the many and not the few. The longer a problem goes unresolved, the worse it will get; that’s what happens in a permacrisis – and that’s why we must act now.To learn more about what Adam Taggart has in store for this new Thoughtful Money channel, go to his Substack at adamtaggart.substack.com #inflation #interestrates #recession

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