The Flux by Epistemix

In this episode of The Flux, host John Cordier, CEO at Epistemix, interviews Sherwin Brown from MITRE. Sherwin shares his journey into agent-based modeling, starting from his background in health management and policy. He discusses the role of data science and analytics in solving complex problems, such as monitoring the impact of the Affordable Care Act and tackling issues like homelessness and opioid overdoses. Sherwin emphasizes the importance of visual storytelling in agent-based modeling and its potential to support decision-making in policy contexts. The episode also highlights the importance of community and curiosity in the field of agent-based modeling.

00:00 Introduction to The Flux Podcast

00:45 Meet Sherwin Brown from MITRE

00:59 Sherwin's Journey into Agent-Based Modeling

01:59 Affordable Care Act and Data Science Competitions

02:21 Exploring Natural Language Processing

04:04 Agent-Based Modeling in Policy Making

05:54 Complex Relationship Between Homelessness and Opioid Overdoses

07:04 Complex Social Systems Society Conference

08:05 Future of Agent-Based Modeling

09:11 Advice for Students Interested in Agent-Based Modeling

10:17 Closing Remarks

In The Intersection of Science Fiction and Reality episode of The Flux podcast, host John Cordier engages in a conversation with Sam Arbesman, Scientist-in-Residence at Lux Capital and Research Fellow at the Long Now Foundation. They explore how science fiction, video games, and computational social science intersect to influence real-world innovations.

Harbisman shares how early experiences like playing SimCity and reading Isaac Asimov's Foundation Trilogy sparked his interest in complexity science and computational modeling. They discuss the concept of psychohistory from Foundation, and how it inspired modern computational social science to analyze societal behaviors on a large scale.

They also touch on how venture capital plays a role in transforming science fiction ideas into reality, with Lux Capital supporting innovations that blur the lines between science fact and fiction. Arbesman reflects on the increasing complexity of technological systems, emphasizing how understanding these systems requires new tools and thinking, akin to studying biological systems.

Ultimately, this episode highlights the value of scenario planning, counterfactuals, and complexity science in decision-making and innovation, making a compelling case for the importance of these methodologies in navigating an uncertain future.

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction

00:16 Meet Sam Arbesman

01:00 Sam's Journey into Complex Systems

01:34 The Influence of SimCity and Science Fiction

03:03 The Foundation Trilogy and Psychohistory

07:01 Science Fiction's Real-World Impact

13:08 The Role of Venture Capital in Innovation

14:19 The Future of Deep Tech and Emerging Technologies

19:12 The Importance of Counterfactuals and Scenario Planning

30:20 Encouraging Complexity Science Education

35:44 The Future of Simulation and Computational Science

In this episode of The Flux, John Cordier interviews Rob Axtell from
George Mason University, where he leads the largest graduate program
in agent-based modeling (ABM) globally. Axtell shares his journey into
complex systems modeling and how the field has evolved since the
1990s. He explains how George Mason’s Ph.D. program in
Computational Social Science is shaping the next generation of experts
who go on to roles in government, research, and the private sector.

They discuss the power of agent-based models to simulate real-world
dynamics, from consumer behavior to macroeconomics, highlighting the
increasing availability of data and computing power that allows ABM to
compete with traditional models used by institutions like central banks.
Axtell emphasizes the need for more empirical grounding in ABM and
the potential to build large-scale, highly detailed models, including the
exciting possibility of simulating entire economies.

Axtell also touches on the importance of modeling social complexity at
the individual level, the challenges of past limitations in data, and the
unique potential of ABM to provide a more accurate picture of systems
like financial markets.

For those new to the field, Axtell offers practical advice on getting
started, emphasizing the value of tools like NetLogo as a gateway to
ABM. Whether you're a student, researcher, or data enthusiast, this
episode provides a deep dive into the cutting-edge applications of ABM
and its future impact.

00:00 Welcome to The Flux Podcast

00:18 Meet Rob Axtell: Expert in Agent-Based Simulation

01:07 Overview of George Mason's Computational Social Science Program

01:45 Career Paths for Graduates

03:34 Rob Axtell Journey into Agent-Based Modeling

05:58 The Evolution and Impact of Agent-Based Models

08:37 Applications and Future of Agent-Based Modeling

11:35 Challenges and Opportunities in Agent-Based Modeling

14:06 The Importance of High-Fidelity Models

16:31 Policy Implications and Real-World Applications

29:41 Technical Advances and Future Directions

36:44 Advice for Aspiring Agent-Based Modelers

39:09 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

In this episode of The Flux, host John Cordier sits down with Don Burke, co-founder of Epistemix and a trailblazing epidemiologist, to explore the fascinating intersection of infectious disease research, artificial intelligence, and agent-based modeling (ABM). Burke shares his journey from a traditional career in infectious disease research to becoming a passionate advocate for modeling and simulation, offering a behind-the-scenes look at his groundbreaking work with HIV, vaccines, and global disease prevention.

Burke recounts his early days in the military, developing vaccines for tropical diseases and his epiphany when he first encountered genetic algorithms and artificial intelligence. This moment sparked a shift in his approach to public health, leading him to apply simulation methods to complex biological and social systems, ultimately culminating in his co-founding of Epistemix. He discusses his pivotal role in creating agent-based models for predicting disease outbreaks like smallpox, avian flu, and most recently, COVID-19, illustrating the power of simulation in making better decisions in public health.

Beyond infectious disease, Burke reflects on the future of modeling, emphasizing its potential to not only tackle epidemics but also simulate human behavior, social contagions, and decision-making processes—showing how these tools are critical for addressing broader societal challenges. Throughout, Burke conveys his belief that interdisciplinary collaboration and data-driven insights are essential for solving today’s most pressing global issues.

This episode offers an in-depth, accessible exploration of how AI, computational social science, and agent-based modeling are shaping the future of public health and decision-making across industries.

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction to the Flux Podcast

00:19 Meet Don Berg: From Infectious Disease Physician to Modeler

00:30 Early Career and Vaccine Development

01:47 HIV Research and Genetic Algorithms

04:29 The Epiphany: Modeling Viral Evolution

06:52 Transition to Johns Hopkins and Building Modeling Skills

08:16 9/11 and the Rise of Biodefense Modeling

12:42 The MIDAS Program and Agent-Based Modeling

20:23 Expanding Agent-Based Modeling Beyond Infectious Diseases

26:43 The Campfire Concept: Collaborative Modeling

30:12 Lessons from DA Henderson and Smallpox Eradication

32:49 Reflections on a Career in Modeling and Simulation

34:49 The Future of Modeling and Simulation

39:11 Current Projects and Historical Insights

In this episode of The Flux, host John Cordier interviews Matt Madden, Director of the BYU Marketing Lab, about his work in making complex statistics and marketing analytics accessible. Madden discusses the lab's unique approach, which allows students to apply their skills in real-world consulting projects. They delve into key topics like market research techniques such as conjoint analysis, which helps students and clients understand consumer behavior more accurately than traditional surveys.

Madden shares his journey from math education to statistics and ultimately to marketing, providing insights into how data can guide consumer insights while acknowledging its limitations. He highlights the challenges of relying solely on past data, emphasizing the need for creativity and risk-taking in decision-making. They also discuss integrating newer technologies, like AI and machine learning, into marketing analytics, exploring both the opportunities and concerns associated with increased data availability. Madden further addresses the importance of qualitative data, its challenges, and the evolving nature of market research.

The episode closes with advice for students entering the marketing field, focusing on the importance of resilience, saying "no" to prevent burnout and the necessity of balancing data-driven decisions with human creativity and empathy.

This episode is a must-listen for marketers, data enthusiasts, and business professionals seeking to harness data analytics while maintaining a consumer-focused, ethical approach.

00:00 Introduction to The Flux

00:45 Meet Matt Madden: BYU Marketing Lab Director

01:03 The BYU Marketing Lab: Real Consulting Experience

02:08 Conjoint Analysis: A Market Research Technique

05:59 From Math Education to Marketing Analytics

07:32 Predictive Modeling in Healthcare

11:14 The Future of Marketing Analytics

13:39 Challenges in Data Privacy and Forecasting

20:02 Entrepreneurship and Qualitative Data at Scale

24:18 Industry's Overexposure to Surveys

24:44 Consumer Feedback Fatigue

25:32 A Rare Example of Effective Feedback

27:04 The Importance of Data in Business Decisions

27:58 Challenges for Small Businesses in Using Data

30:30 Disaster Recovery in Data Analytics

32:59 The Future of Modeling and Machine Learning

35:33 Advancements in User Interface and Visualization

37:28 The Evolution of Programming Languages

41:19 Advice for Graduating Students

In the inaugural episode of The Flux, John Cordier, CEO of Epistemix, interviews Josh Epstein, Director of the Agent-Based Modeling Lab at NYU and a prominent figure at the Santa Fe Institute. The discussion revolves around the potential and progress of agent-based modeling (ABM), particularly in public health, economics, and beyond.

Epstein shares insights into how ABM creates simulations of artificial societies to generate real-world patterns like epidemics or wealth distributions. He highlights the generative explanatory standard, which uses individual agent behaviors to explain macroscopic phenomena, contrasting it with traditional models that assume rational actors. Epstein introduces Agent Zero, a framework offering an alternative to the rational actor model by incorporating emotional, cognitive, and social elements into agent behavior. His work emphasizes the need for cognitively plausible agents in simulations, moving beyond simplified assumptions in fields like epidemiology and economics.

This episode underscores the transformative potential of ABM in areas such as public policy, disease modeling, and economic forecasting, stressing the importance of integrating human behavior into models to improve decision-making. Epstein envisions ABM becoming a core tool in tackling complex, real-world problems, with the field poised for continued growth as computational power advances.

Timestamps

00:00 Introduction to The Flux Podcast
00:23 Meet Josh Epstein: Pioneer in Agent-Based Modeling
02:32 Exploring Agent-Based Models
04:59 Generative Social Science and Agent Zero
07:31 Inverse Generative Social Science
15:58 Behavioral Dynamics in Epidemiology
19:00 Leadership and Decision Making in Modeling
19:33 Future of Agent-Based Modeling
20:35 Global Adoption of Agent-Based Models
22:34 Visualization and Pandemic Modeling
33:46 Why Model?
37:34 Optimism for the Future

In this episode of The Flux, John Cordier interviews Matt Kohler, Applied Complexity Scientist at MITRE and President of the Computational Social Science Society of the Americas, about the transformative power of agent-based modeling (ABM). Kohler explains how ABM simulates complex human systems and helps decision-makers understand the ripple effects of their choices. From anthropology to economics, Kohler shares examples of how ABM is helping scientists and leaders explore new insights.

As technological advancements in data, hardware, and software drive ABM to new heights, Kohler discusses its expanding role in solving real-world challenges, from traffic modeling to financial crises. With its potential to revolutionize industries by providing a clearer view of how complex systems evolve, ABM is poised to become an indispensable tool for policy-makers, researchers, and organizations.

This episode is for anyone interested in the intersection of complexity science and decision-making, and how ABM is shaping the future of predictive modeling.

Timestamps:

01:00 Matt Kohler's Flux Moment

03:17 Agent-Based Modeling Insights

05:13 Applications and Future of Agent-Based Modeling

08:56 Challenges and Successes in Agent-Based Modeling

23:41 Economic Theories and Agent-Based Modeling

26:58 Getting Started with Agent-Based Modeling

29:10 Future of Computational Social Science

In this episode of 'The Flux,' we dive deep into data-driven decision making with Bill Rand from NC State University. Join us as Bill discusses his work in agent-based modeling, social media misinformation, and various innovative projects. Discover how agent-based modeling can provide insights into human behavior, business analytics, and even intergenerational trauma. Learn how different modeling approaches can help forecast outcomes, refine decision-making processes, and provide better policy and business strategies. Perfect for anyone interested in AI, data science, and the social sciences.

00:00 Introduction to the Flux Podcast

00:20 Meet Bill Rand: Data-Driven Decision Making

02:42 Applications of Agent-Based Modeling

31:21 What the Flux Moment

32:02 Reflections and Methodological Insights

In this episode of The Flux, join Dave Freed, Senior Director at Ansys, as he delves into the transformative world of computer simulations. With a rich history from Exa Corporation to OnScale and Ansys, Dave explores the evolution and future of simulations, highlighting their pivotal role in automotive, aerospace, and nuclear engineering. Discover how simulations have advanced to replace costly physical testing, improve accuracy, and prevent errors. Learn about intriguing real-world applications, the integration of AI in automating complex tasks, and the surge of simulation in life sciences. Dave also shares personal experiences and acknowledges mentors who've shaped his illustrious career.

00:00 Introduction to The Flux Podcast

00:19 Meet Dave Freed: CTO and Simulation Expert

00:41 Dave's Career Journey in Simulation

11:59 The Value of Simulation

22:18 Simulation Accessibility and User Experience

31:49 Future of Simulation and AI Integration