WEALTHTRACK

In editing, collating, and compiling The Essays of Warren Buffett for 30 years, Larry Cunningham has developed an in-depth understanding of the Oracle of Omaha’s investment thinking.

WEALTHTRACK Episode 2052 broadcast on June 21, 2024

More info: 

https://wealthtrack.com/warren-buffetts-investment-evolution-whats-changed-what-hasnt-over-five-decades/

Bookshelf: 

The Essays of Warren Buffett: Lessons for Corporate America: https://amzn.to/4bbp6DJ

Berkshire Beyond Buffett: The Enduring Value of Values: https://amzn.to/3zaI5Bb

Margin of Trust: The Berkshire Business Model: https://amzn.to/4bebl76

Since taking over T. Rowe Price’s Global Technology Fund Dom Rizzo has outperformed his competitors and market benchmarks. He explains why AI was and will be a major emphasis.

WEALTHTRACK episode 2051 broadcast on June 14, 2024

More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/ai-could-be-the-biggest-productivity-enhancer-since-electricity-says-t-rowe-prices-dominic-rizzo/

WEALTHTRACK episode 2048 broadcast on May 25, 2024

More Info:

https://wealthtrack.com/democracy-beats-autocracy-for-investors-perth-tolles-life-liberty-indexes-prove-it/

Bookshelf:

Red Notice: A True Story of High Finance, Murder, and One Man’s Fight for Justice

by Bill Browder

https://amzn.to/4bQZT23

Leading Wall Street economist Nancy Lazar says 19 states are already in recession as consumer debt levels rise and confidence declines.

WEALTHTRACK episode 2047 originally broadcast on May 18, 2024

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/with-consumers-under-increasing-financial-pressure-leading-economist-nancy-lazar-sees-recession-looming/

WEALTHTRACK episode 2046 originally broadcast on May 11, 2024

More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/pimcos-dan-ivascyn-on-why-bond-returns-are-the-most-attractive-in-years-rivaling-stocks-and-cash/

WEALTHTRACK episode 2044 broadcast on May 04, 2024

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/influential-labor-economist-teresa-ghilarducci-on-why-working-longer-is-not-a-retirement-solution/

Bookshelf :

Work, Retire, Repeat: The Uncertainty of Retirement in the New Economy

https://amzn.to/44nREYI

Rescuing Retirement: A Plan to Guarantee Retirement Security for All Americans

https://amzn.to/3wgSIBe

Part 2 of 2: Strong demand and limited supply have created long-term opportunities in residential real estate. Top ranked Baron Real Estate Fund manager, Jeff Kolitch shares his highest conviction investments.

Top-ranked real estate fund manager Jeffrey Kolitch discusses the compelling opportunities he is finding in the much-maligned commercial real estate industry.

Influential economist and strategist Ed Yardeni tackles why AI isn’t intelligent, why economists have been so wrong, and the bull market could continue.

WEALTHTRACK episode 2040 broadcast on March 30, 2024.

Causeway Capital’s Sarah Ketterer describes a range of global companies with outstanding values.

WEALTHTRACK #2039 broadcast on March, 22, 2024March

Leading bond analyst Martin Fridson explains his tested strategy for identifying top-performing stocks for the year ahead.

WEALTHTRACK #2038 broadcast on March 15, 2024

Part 1 of 2: Leading bond analyst Martin Fridson explains his tested strategy for identifying top-performing stocks for the year ahead.

WEALTHTRACK #2037 broadcast on March 8, 2024

Part 2 of 2 How to streamline your retirement planning by decluttering and consolidating accounts with Morningstar’s retirement guru, Christine Benz. WEALTHTRACK episode 2033 was originally broadcast on February 09,2024.

We speak with Christine Benz, Morningstar's personal finance guru, about the significant impact of higher yields on retirement planning. Benz discusses the potential benefits of adding a basic fixed immediate annuity to retirement plans, the importance of asset location for higher-yielding assets, and the advantages of investing in defined maturity bond funds. She also shares insights on the iShares I bond Term TIPS ETFs and the implications of higher interest rates on portfolio returns. Don't miss this informative discussion on optimizing your retirement strategy.

WEALTHTRACK Episode 2023 originally broadcast on Feburary 02, 2024

More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/the-huge-impact-of-higher-yields-on-retirement-planning-with-personal-finance-guru-christine-benz/

Get: Safe Retirement Withdrawal Strategies: https://www.morningstar.com/lp/the-state-of-retirement-income

We dive into the real risks facing the markets with global value investor Matthew McLennan. As markets climb a wall of worry, McLennan shares his insights on protecting yourself from inevitable declines and sticking to a disciplined investment approach. We explore the key concerns and opportunities in the financial landscape. Stay tuned for valuable insights from McLennan, Co-Head of the global value team at First Eagle Investments, discusses the multiple risks facing “complacent” markets and his strategies to navigate them.

WEALTHTRACK Episode 2031 originally broadcast on January 26, 2023

Join renowned financial thought leader and strategist Jason Trennert as he shares his major investment themes for 2024 in this episode of WEALTHTRACK. Gain insights into the current state of the economy and markets and discover potential risks and opportunities that lie ahead. Trennert discusses the performance of giant tech stocks, the importance of portfolio rebalancing, and investment strategies for areas that have lagged behind. Explore the rise of populism and its impact on global markets. Don't miss this informative conversation!

WEALTHTRACK Episode 2030 originally broadcast on January 19, 2024

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/leading-strategist-jason-trennert-identifies-major-investable-themes-for-2024/

We have a fascinating discussion with Sebastien Page, Head of T Rowe Price's global multi-asset division, about the new regime we find ourselves in. But what exactly does this regime change mean? Well, for the first time in 40 years, we have seen a higher high in fed funds, marking the end of the era of near-zero interest rates. This shift has significant implications for portfolio construction and diversification strategies. In this interview, Sebastien Page shares his insights on how this new regime differs from previous periods and how it requires us to rethink traditional approaches to asset allocation. Join us as we explore the strategies and considerations for building and protecting your wealth in this changing financial landscape.

WEALTHTRACK episode 2029 originally broadcast on January 12, 2024

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/a-new-market-era-requires-different-strategies-sebastien-page-describes-his-updated-approach/

The View from the Knife's Edge: A New Market Regime: https://www.troweprice.com/corporate/us/en/press/press-release-financial-services-review-the-view-from-the-knifes-edge-a-new-market-regime.html

Bookshelf: Beyond Diversification: What Every Investor Needs to Know About Asset Allocation

https://amzn.to/3U4a2mB

In this episode of WEALTHTRACK, we explore the topic of emerging markets and their current investment potential. Our guest, Andrew Foster, a renowned portfolio manager and founder of Seafarer Capital Partners, shares his insights on why emerging markets are no longer a growth story. Foster emphasizes that the investment case for emerging markets lies in individual companies rather than countries. He highlights the challenges faced by companies in China, such as government interference and encroachment on operations and governance. Foster also discusses his investment approach, focusing on income and value. Despite the changing landscape, he still finds China investable and continues to research and invest in the country. Overall, this episode provides valuable perspectives on the evolving dynamics of emerging markets and the importance of company-specific analysis in investment decisions.

WEALTHTRACK Episode 2026 originally broadcast on December 22, 2023

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/andrew-foster-is-finding-undervalued-high-quality-market-leading-companies-in-emerging-markets/

David Giroux discusses the impact of AI on companies' cost structures and margins, highlighting the potential for increased productivity. Companies like Alphabet (Google) and their use of AI to make programmers more productive, leading to margin expansion. Giroux also discusses investment opportunities in sectors like utilities, healthcare, and industrials, emphasizing the importance of a longer time horizon for investment success. WEALTHTRACK # 2025 broadcast on December 15, 2023 More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/5-star-gold-medalist-portfolio-manager-david-giroux-discusses-contrarian-2024-strategies-and-ai/ Bookshelf: Thinking, Fast and Slow https://amzn.to/3NvHRbR

Annually, the anticipation for economist Ed Hyman's insights peaks as he's consistently ranked Wall Street's top economist for 43 years. Last year, he tracked the Federal Reserve's tightening policies, predicting a slowdown in inflation and warning of a potential recession if credit conditions tightened further. 

WEALTHTRACK episode 2024 broadcast on December 08, 2023

More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/wall-streets-longtime-1-economist-ed-hyman-shares-his-high-conviction-calls-for-2024/

Bookshelf: Leadership: Six Studies in World Strategy https://amzn.to/48cxEsZ

Jeff Schultze, head of economic and market strategy at ClearBridge Investments, discusses the possibility of a recession and the current state of the economy. He shares insights on recession risk indicators, the consumer's financial health, the banking system, and the Federal Reserve's ability to respond.

WEALTHTRACK Episode 2023, published on December 1, 2023

More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/strategist-jeff-schulze-explains-why-the-slowing-economy-can-coexist-with-a-rallying-stock-market/

ClearBridge’s Anatomy of a Recession Dashboard: https://www.clearbridgeinvestments.com.au/perspectives/anatomy-of-a-recession/

Two leading municipal bond managers, Duane McAllister and Lyle Fitterer, who oversee Baird’s award-winning suite of municipal bond funds, including its 5-star, Silver-rated Baird Core Intermediate Municipal Bond Fund, present a compelling case for muni bonds.

WEALTHTRACK Episode 2022, published on November 23, 2023

More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/the-highest-yields-in-nearly-20-years-make-a-compelling-case-for-municipal-bonds/

Part 2 of 2

Financial thought leader and historian James Grant is marking the 40th anniversary of his influential Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, a twice-monthly, self-described “independent, value-oriented and contrary-minded journal of the financial markets.”

Grant shares his insights on a wide range of financial topics, including booms and busts, corporate finance, inflation, and the evolution of central banking.

Grant also discusses his prescient analyses of the 2007-2009 credit crisis and offers warnings about the perils of cryptocurrencies and low-interest rates. He also unveils the one trait shared by successful investors, providing valuable insights for navigating the ever-changing financial landscape.

WEALTHTRACK episode 2021 was originally broadcast on November 17, 2023,

More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/financial-thought-leader-james-grant-shares-four-decades-of-investment-wisdom-and-insights/

Grant’s Interest Rate Observer: https://www.grantspub.com/

Bookshelf:

The Forgotten Depression: 1921: The Crash That Cured Itself

https://amzn.to/3QTCsh9

Money of the Mind: How the 1980s Got That Way

https://amzn.to/47tIeev

The Trouble With Prosperity: The Loss of Fear, the Rise of Speculation, and the Risk to American Savings

https://amzn.to/3ugSwjR

Bagehot: The Life and Times of the Greatest Victorian

https://amzn.to/47cX49S

Inside the Yield Book: The Classic That Created the Science of Bond Analysis

https://amzn.to/47lO3KY

A History of Interest Rates, Fourth Edition

https://amzn.to/3FR38J1

Part 1 of 2

James Grant, Founder and Editor of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, joins us to discuss the history of bond market cycles and why the dramatic rise in interest rates that began in March of last year might have ushered in a prolonged bear market in bonds.

Grant argues that bond yields have trended in generation-length periods, with each cycle lasting at least 20 years. He believes that the bull market in bonds that began in the early 1980s has now come to an end, and that we are now embarking on a long-term period of rising interest rates.

Grant's perspective is important because he has been warning of a bond bear market for many years. He has argued that the central banks' aggressive monetary stimulus policies have created a bubble in the bond market and that this bubble is now bursting.

WEALTHTRACK episode 2020 originally broadcast on November 10, 2023

More info:https://wealthtrack.com/financial-thought-leader-james-grant-on-the-investment-ramifications-of-the-new-era-of-higher-interest-rates/

Bookshelf:

The Forgotten Depression: 1921: The Crash That Cured Itself

https://amzn.to/3QTCsh9

Money of the Mind: How the 1980s Got That Way

https://amzn.to/47tIeev

The Trouble With Prosperity: The Loss of Fear, the Rise of Speculation, and the Risk to American Savings

https://amzn.to/3ugSwjR

Bagehot: The Life and Times of the Greatest Victorian

https://amzn.to/47cX49S

Inside the Yield Book: The Classic That Created the Science of Bond Analysis

https://amzn.to/47lO3KY

A History of Interest Rates, Fourth Edition

https://amzn.to/3FR38J1

Bruce Berkowitz is the founder and CEO of Fairholme Capital Management and a legendary value investor. In this exclusive interview, he talks about his deep value, contrarian approach, his current strategy, and the lessons he's learned over the years.

Berkowitz's Fairholme Fund was once a top performer, returning better than 13% annualized returns in its first decade. But it has since lagged the market and become extremely volatile. Today, 82% of the fund is concentrated in one stock: The St. Joe Company, a Florida real estate developer and manager.

Berkowitz reveals the highs and lows of his career and shares his insights on value investing, contrarian thinking, and the future of the markets.

WEALTHTRACK #2019 originally broadcast on November 03, 2023

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/fairholme-funds-bruce-berkowitz-deep-value-contrarian-approach-thats-still-beating-the-market/

Bookshelf: Security Analysis: Principles and Techniquehttps://amzn.to/3sax7bH

In a world where stocks have been the go-to asset class for income and returns, bonds are making a comeback. That's the view of Mary Ellen Stanek, Co-Chief Investment Officer of Baird Advisors and President of the Baird Funds, who says that the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hikes have made bonds more attractive to investors.

Stanek argues that the rapid rise in interest rates has created opportunities in the fixed-income market, as bond yields have increased to their highest levels in years. This means that investors can now lock in higher yields for their money, which can provide a valuable source of income and diversification in a volatile market.

In this interview, Stanek explains why she is convinced that bonds are back and why investors should consider adding them to their portfolios. She also discusses her investment strategy and how she selects bonds for her clients.

WEALTHTRACK episode 2018, broadcast on October 27, 2023

Learn More: https://wealthtrack.com/star-bond-fund-manager-mary-ellen-stanek-on-the-compelling-case-for-bonds-even-over-stocks/

The political, demographic, and policy headwinds causing China’s economy to slow and possibly unravel with serious repercussions for the world’s economies and markets. WEALTHTRACK Episode 2016, published on October 12, 2023

Part 2 of 2

Our rare interview with legendary investor Steven Romick, Co-Portfolio Manager of the FPA Crescent Fund which he founded 30 years ago. Morningstar gives the gold-rated fund high marks for its focus on capital preservation and strong stewardship.

Since 1993, Crescent has generated equity-like returns with less risk than the overall market. Its nearly 10% annualized returns match the S&P 500 but with significantly less decline during downturns and faster recovery.

Earlier this year, Romick delivered the keynote at Morningstar's investment conference, reflecting on his 30 years of successful investing across multiple cycles.

We asked Romick to share insights and lessons learned navigating major crises like the tech bubble, financial crisis, COVID crash, and 2022's meltdown. Interestingly, he believes Crescent has survived by "first considering what can go wrong."

Hear Romick's wisdom on defensive investing, managing risk, contrarian thinking, and preparing for an uncertain future. A rare chance to learn from a legendary investor.

WEALTHTRACK Episode 2012 broadcast on September 15, 2023

More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/fpa-crescent-funds-steven-romick-shares-30-years-of-investment-lessons/

Bookshelf: Security Analysis, Seventh Edition: Principles and Technique

https://amzn.to/3szbiSH

Is the 60/40 Portfolio Is Obsolete?

The traditional 60/40 portfolio of 60% stocks and 40% bonds has been a staple of investment advice for decades. But in 2022, it failed to deliver the goods, declining about 16%.

Mark Cortazzo says that the rapid rise in interest rates has caused a "massive change" in fixed-income returns. This means that traditional safe assets are back, and it's time to reset portfolios.

Cortazzo is a Senior Vice President and Financial Advisor with the Wealth Enhancement Group. He has over 30 years of experience in the financial industry and has been named a Barron's Top Advisor for thirteen years.

Cortazzo discusses the massive reset in returns and what it means for investors. He also provides tips on how to realign your portfolio for the new environment.

WEALTHTRACK episode 2011 broadcast on September 8, 2023

More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/rising-interest-rates-mean-massive-changes-in-fixed-income-returns-traditional-safe-assets-are-back/

Bookshelf

Your Future Self: How to Make Tomorrow Better Today : https://amzn.to/3P2MI4o

The Four Pillars of Investing, Second Edition: Lessons for Building a Winning Portfolio: https://amzn.to/3r2osYf

Discover the state of the municipal bond market post-2022 interest rate surge! Munis had their worst year since 1981, with a -8.5% return. Yields doubled from 1.03% to 2.63%, causing record outflows of $122 billion. Join us with muni bond expert Robert DiMella, Co-Head of MacKay Municipal Managers, as he shares insights on market recovery and tax-free opportunities. What are the opportunities and risks in the tax-free market now?

WEALTHTRACK episode 2010 broadcast on September 01, 2023

More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/veteran-municipal-bond-manager-robert-dimella-on-the-opportunities-in-the-muni-market-after-2022s-big-sell-off/

Part 1 of 2

Discover insights from renowned investor Steven Romick, Co-Portfolio Manager of the FPA Crescent Fund, which celebrates its 30th anniversary this year. Unlike most funds, FPA Crescent has not only survived but thrived for three decades, delivering almost 10% annualized returns with lower volatility than the S&P 500. 

Its success lies in maintaining equity-like returns with reduced market risk and avoiding permanent capital losses. Morningstar's Gold analyst rating and the 2013 Allocation Fund Manager of the Year title validate its performance.

In a rare interview, FPA Crescent Fund’s founding portfolio manager, Steven Romick puts the fund’s current positioning into perspective

WEALTHTRACK 2009 broadcast on August 25, 2023

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/great-value-investor-steven-romick-describes-fpa-crescent-funds-current-positioning/

Bookshelf: Security Analysis, Seventh Edition: Principles and Technique: https://amzn.to/3szbiSH

As FPA Crescent Fund celebrates its 30th anniversary, Morningstar asked the fund’s founding portfolio manager, Steven Romick to deliver a keynote speech at its annual conference.

His topic: “The Evolution of a Value Investor.”

https://wealthtrack.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/steven-romick-morningstar-keynote-speech-2023-04-final.pdf

Selecting the best mutual funds to achieve long-term financial goals remains a challenging task for investors. Russel Kinnel, Director of Manager Research for Morningstar, has dedicated nearly three decades to this endeavor. He oversees Morningstar's North American Morningstar analyst ratings committees, responsible for vetting the prestigious Morningstar medalist ratings frequently cited in the financial world.

Kinnel's extensive experience analyzing various fund types and prominent fund families has led him to publish two highly impactful articles.

One is the annual "The Thrilling" fund list, which carefully selects 25 to 50 funds from a vast universe of 15,000 fund share classes based on strict criteria. Additionally, Kinnel shares his review of the top ten holdings in his personal portfolio, some of which may not be members of this year's "Thrilling 33" fund list. 

Join us to understand the rigorous selection process for "The Thrilling 33" and gain valuable insights into Kinnel's top personal holdings.

WEALTHTRACK episode 2006 broadcast on August 04, 2023

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/best-mutual-fund-choices-from-morningstars-fund-maven-russel-kinnel/

More on “The Thrilling 33”:

Reading the complete current report does require a Morningstar subscription, but you can view last year’s report for free

Current report (Morningstar subscription required):

https://mfi.morningstar.com/LoginDual.aspx?ReturnUrl=%2fBlogArticle.aspx%3fpostid%3d4009120&postid=4009120

Last year’s report (free):

https://www.morningstar.com/funds/thrilling-31-list-great-funds

Discover the future of AI investments with Michael Lippert, Head of Technology Research at Baron Capital. He believes AI is now at its transformative inflection point.

Join us for an insightful discussion on his recently published report, 'Investing in AI: Opportunities and Risks,' where we explore the potential of AI as a game-changing technology. 

As the Portfolio Manager of Baron Capital's high-growth stock-oriented Baron Opportunity Fund, he shares his strategies for identifying companies with durable competitive advantages and cash-generative business models, fostering double-digit multi-year projected annual returns. 

Gain valuable insights into the growth potential of AI investments from a seasoned expert's investment perspective.

WEALTHTRACK episode 2005 broadcast on July 28, 2023

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/investing-in-ai-with-gold-rated-baron-opportunity-funds-michael-lippert/

Read: “Investing in AI: Opportunities and Risks”: https://wealthtrack.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Baron-Insight-Investing-in-AI-7.6.2023.pdf

Bookshelf: Common Sense on Mutual Funds - https://amzn.to/453zw5v

Read Buffett 1990 Annual Letter: https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/1990.html

Uncover the secrets behind managing the world's largest mutual fund, the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund, in this captivating episode of WEALTHTRACK. Join Gerry O'Reilly, the fund's principal portfolio manager, as he reveals the active management required for this trillion-dollar behemoth. Learn about O'Reilly's inspiring journey from Ireland to the 1988 Seoul Olympics before delving into his impressive track record. Gain insights into the misconceptions surrounding index fund management and discover the strategies employed to match the CRSP U.S. Total Market Index. Don't miss this exclusive episode for a behind-the-scenes look at the fund shaping the investment landscape. 

WEALTHTRACK episode 2004 broadcast on July 21, 2023

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/gerry-oreilly-on-why-passive-is-anything-but-when-running-vanguards-total-stock-market-index-fund/

Climate change, a topic of daily conversation, has sparked a global industry worth billions and, soon, trillions of dollars. Discover investment opportunities in this field through the expertise of Lucas White, Lead Portfolio Manager of GMO's successful Climate Change Strategy. With the impressive performance of GMO's Climate Change Fund, which beats its benchmark and boasts 12% annualized returns, investors gain exposure to companies combatting climate change and adapting to its effects. White shares insights on the fund's unique approach and discusses his journey in launching it.

WEALTHTRACK episode 2003 originally broadcast on July 14, 2023

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/the-unique-approach-of-lucas-whites-high-performing-gmo-climate-change-fund/

Small-cap stocks in general have generated subpar returns in the last five years and have underperformed large-cap stocks by a wide margin over the last nine. However, Royce believes that small caps are due for a significant and lasting rebound. He says that history is the best guide to future performance, and that small caps have outperformed large caps over the long term.

Chuck Royce is a small-cap pioneer with over 50 years of experience in the investment industry. He is the chairman of Royce Investment Partners, which he founded in 1973. Royce is also a portfolio manager on four Royce mutual funds and three closed-end funds. He is best known for his flagship fund, the Royce Pennsylvania Mutual Fund, which he has managed since 1972.

In this exclusive interview, Royce discusses why his Royce Pennsylvania Mutual Fund has outperformed its benchmark for over half a century and why he believes small-caps are laying the foundation for an extended cycle of above-average returns.

WEALTHTRACK episode 2002 originally broadcast on July 07, 2023

More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/chuck-royce-shares-50-years-of-investment-wisdom-on-his-small-cap-outperformance/

Jeremy Grantham, investment legend and long-time value investor, warns of a bubble of "epic proportions" in the bond, stock, housing, and commodities markets.

Grantham, who has accurately predicted market bubbles in the past, believes that the current market is overvalued and due for a correction. He cites three factors that are contributing to the bubble: low interest rates, easy credit, and excessive speculation.

Grantham also discusses his views on climate change, bursting market bubbles, and artificial intelligence. He believes that climate change is the most important issue facing the world today, and that artificial intelligence could have a major impact on the future of the economy.

WEALTHTRACK 2001 originally broadcast on June 30, 2023

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/jeremy-granthams-views-on-climate-change-bursting-market-bubbles-and-artificial-intelligence/

Burt Malkiel: 50th anniversary of A Random Walk Down Wall Street: The Best Investment Guide that Money Can Buy - https://amzn.to/3NXtm1q

Charles Ellis: Winning the Loser's Game: Timeless Strategies for Successful Investing - https://amzn.to/3XzC0WJ

Robert Aliber: Manias, Panics and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises - https://amzn.to/3JDIuhK
Niall Ferguson: The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World - https://amzn.to/3NBtySv

In a recent essay published in The New York Times, Richard Bookstaber, a renowned risk expert, suggests that we may be on the brink of a new era of crisis. Drawing from his extensive experience in risk management, Bookstaber has a track record of identifying and addressing risks in both private and public institutions. As the Chief Risk Officer of Fabric, a platform focused on risk management for wealth managers and individuals, he has played a crucial role in navigating financial crises and working with regulatory bodies.

Bookstaber's current analysis highlights several slow-motion risks that he believes pose significant threats to the economy, societal stability, and even civilization itself. These risks encompass climate change, demographic shifts, deglobalization, and artificial intelligence. Alongside these long-term concerns, Bookstaber also evaluates more immediate challenges that impact the economy and financial markets. With his vast expertise and historical insights, Bookstaber's perspective offers valuable insights into the complex landscape of risks facing our world today.

WEALTHTRACK Episode 1951, broadcast on June 16, 2023

More info: 

Bookshelf:

The End of Theory: Financial Crises, the Failure of Economics, and the Sweep of Human Interaction: https://amzn.to/468ggFj

A Demon of Our Own Design: Markets, Hedge Funds, and the Perils of Financial Innovation: https://amzn.to/3JdrfUc

Part 2 of 2

American investors have had a love-hate relationship with stocks since their early days of trading under a buttonwood tree on Wall Street in 1792. However, recent setbacks, including a challenging year for equities in 2022 and rising yields on fixed income investments, have led to a cooling of investor sentiment. We welcome back Savita Subramanian, an influential strategist serving as the Head of U.S. Equity and Quantitative Strategy at BofA Global Research. She challenges the prevailing negative perception of stocks and presents research-backed evidence of their value as long-term investments.

Subramanian, recognized as a top-ranked analyst by Institutional Investor for the last ten years and featured on Barron's list of the 100 Most Influential Women in U.S. Finance for three consecutive years, her expertise is highly regarded in the industry.

In part two of our interview with Subramanian, she sheds light on the significant market trends and explains why stocks should be considered for long-term ownership. Explore her insights and gain a deeper understanding of the enduring value that stocks can bring to your investment portfolio.

WEALTHTRACK #1948 broadcast on April 26, 2023

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/winning-investment-themes-with-staying-power-in-a-changing-world/

David Rosenberg, a well-known economist, believes that the United States is in a recessionary bear market. He predicts that the S&P 500 will eventually bottom at 3100, and he has positioned his personal portfolio accordingly.

Rosenberg's predictions are based on his analysis of the Federal Reserve's tightening cycle, which he believes will lead to a recession. He also points to the recent failures of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic as evidence that the economy is weakening.

Rosenberg's views are in contrast to those of many other economists, who believe that the Federal Reserve can engineer a soft landing. However, Rosenberg's track record suggests that he is worth listening to. In 2007, he predicted the subprime mortgage crisis, which turned into the Global Financial Crisis.

Investors who are concerned about the economy should pay attention to Rosenberg's predictions. They may want to consider reducing their equity exposure and increasing their cash holdings.

Recessions & financial crises go hand in hand after Federal Reserve tightening cycles. Outspoken economist Dave Rosenberg sees evidence of both and advises defensive investments 

WEALTHTRACK 1947 broadcast on May 19, 2023

The recent aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve caused a crisis in some super-regional banks, but the damage has been contained and has not affected the entire banking industry. However, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell believes that the economic toll of such aggressive tightening could be different this time. Savita Subramanian, Head of U.S. Equity and Quantitative Strategy at BofA Global Research, also shares this opinion and recommends stocks over bonds and cyclical sectors over defensive ones, contrary to most institutional investors surveyed by BofA. Subramanian has been named a top-ranked analyst by Institutional Investor for the last 10 years and to Barron’s list of the 100 Most Influential Women in U.S. Finance for the past three years.

WEALTHTRACK episode 1946, broadcast on May 12, 2023

More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/why-owning-stocks-over-bonds-cyclicals-over-defensive-is-savita-subramanians-contrarian-call/

We have a very interesting guest who has publicly voiced a major policy difference on ESG investing. Terrence Keeley, CEO, and Chief Investment Officer of 1PointSix LLC, left BlackRock, one of the world's largest investment managers, in July 2022 to publish his book, SUSTAINABLE: Moving Beyond ESG to Impact Investing. 

In his 40-year investment career, Keeley has never advised a client to invest in ESG, and he joins us to explain why ESG investing doesn't work and what does. This is a rare occasion for a top executive at a major investment firm to go public about a major policy difference. 

WEALTHTRACK episode 1945, broadcast on May 5, 2023

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/why-esg-investing-doesnt-work-former-top-blackrock-executive-terrence-keeley-explains-why-and-what-does/

Bookshelf: Sustainable: Moving Beyond ESG to Impact Investing

https://amzn.to/3nAyAp9

Part 2 of 2

We continue our interview with Ed Yardeni, an experienced economist, strategist, and Fed watcher who has been closely following the Fed throughout his 40-year investment career. 

Yardeni is the author of “Fed Watching for Fun and Profit: A Primer for Investors” and head of his own global investment strategy firm, Yardeni Research. He believes that anticipating the actions of the Federal Reserve System's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is critical to successful investing. 

Despite the historically aggressive pace of interest rate hikes over the past year, Yardeni thinks the Fed is done hiking interest rates for now. We will discuss whether "Don't Fight the Fed" still works as an investment strategy.

WEALTHTRACK episode 1944 broadcast on Apr 28, 2023

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/does-dont-fight-the-fed-still-work-as-an-investment-strategy-strategist-ed-yardeni-responds/

Bookshelf: Fed Watching for Fun & Profit, A Primer for Investorshttps://amzn.to/42amRwr

Jamie Dimon, Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase, is considered the best financial executive in the country and recently weighed in on the banking system's recent turmoil. He believes that simply satisfying regulatory requirements is not sufficient in managing risks, which requires constant and vigilant scrutiny as the world evolves. He also points out that most of the risks in the U.S. banking system were hiding in plain sight and that recent changes in regulatory requirements would not have made a difference in what followed. Bill Wilby is a retired professional money manager with a Ph.D. in International Monetary Economics who will discuss the problems with U.S. Treasuries and why financials are uninvestable.

WEALTHTRACK episode 1943 broadcast on April 21, 2023

More info: 

Bookshelf: Chip War: The Fight for the World's Most Critical Technologyhttps://amzn.to/3H3goLq

Part 1 of 2

After a tough 2022, big tech stocks are back and leading the market rally. According to research firm Strategas, ten stocks, including Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Meta, Tesla, Amazon, Alphabet, Salesforce, AMD, and Broadcom, have accounted for 90% of the S&P 500's year-to-date gains. 

This dominance of a handful of stocks has investors facing some interesting choices, including cash, which is back with money market funds offering yields as high as 5%, and gold, which has recently traded near record territory at over two thousand dollars an ounce. 

All of this is happening against a backdrop of the highest interest rates in years, stress in the banking system, and a Federal Reserve under pressure to pause its fight against inflation. 

To discuss the outlook for the economy and markets, and the best course for investors, we are joined by Ed Yardeni, President and Chief Investment Strategist of Yardeni Research, a PhD economist, long-time Fed watcher, and investment strategist who is widely followed by institutional investors.

WEALTHTRACK episode 1942 broadcast on April 14, 2023.

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/navigating-todays-investment-crosscurrents-with-veteran-macro-strategist-ed-yardeni/

Bookshelf:

In Praise of Profits! : https://amzn.to/3ogciJC

Predicting the Markets: A Professional Autobiography: https://amzn.to/3o7dGOp

Part 2 of 2

Planning for retirement and replacing a work paycheck with savings can be a daunting task, especially with the current challenges of market declines, inflation, rising interest rates, and the threat of recession. Christine Benz, Morningstar's director of personal finance, is passionate about simplifying retirement portfolio planning and has identified six retirement blind spots:

• retirement date risk

• sequence-of-return risk 

• low-yield risk

• inflation risk 

• health care/long-term care risk 

• longevity risk 

In this second of a two-part series on Building a Better Retirement, Benz explains how to mitigate these risks and offers solutions to ensure a financially secure retirement.

WEALTHTRACK episode 1941 broadcsat on April 07, 2023

https://wealthtrack.com/retirement-blind-spots-and-how-to-fix-them-with-morningstars-personal-finance-guru-christine-benz/

Bookshelf:

Morningstar's 30-Minute Money Solutions: A Step-by-Step Guide to Managing Your Finances: https://amzn.to/3G5rVcN

Morningstar Guide to Mutual Funds: Five-Star Strategies for Success: https://amzn.to/3zqb2pv

This week, the Federal Reserve raised its key short-term interest rate for the ninth consecutive time, bringing it to the highest level since September 2007. While Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the dilemma that the Fed officials faced, the banking system's turmoil has been a cause of concern following the recent bank failures. However, Powell assured that the banking system is sound and resilient, and the Federal Reserve is prepared to use all tools as needed to keep it safe and sound. 

Dividend-paying stocks are gaining new respect among investors, and they are proving to be a protective asset in times of market volatility. ClearBridge Investments' Dividend Strategy Fund has been named one of "The Best Dividend Funds" for 2023 by Morningstar. Michael Clarfeld, co-portfolio manager of the fund, is with us to explain why high-quality companies with histories of growing their dividends are particularly valuable now.

WEALTHTRACK Episode 1939 broadcast on March 24, 2023

More info about the stocks mentioned and the Dividend Compounders list:https://wealthtrack.com/the-many-benefits-of-dividend-paying-stocks-explained-by-a-top-rated-dividend-fund-manager/

In this episode of WEALTHTRACK, leading Wall Street economist Nancy Lazar discusses the resilience of the U.S. economy, despite several canaries in the coal mine examples of financial strain. Lazar shares her insights on why the economy is holding up better than expected and what we can expect moving forward, including the impact of the Federal Reserve's efforts to slow down the recovery. Lazar, a highly-ranked economist since 2001 and has been on Barron's 100 Most Influential Women in U.S. Finance for the past three years, offers valuable insights for investors and anyone interested in the state of the economy.

WEALTHTRACK episode 1938 broadcast on March 17, 2023

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/wheres-the-recession-leading-economist-nancy-lazar-on-the-legacy-liquidity-still-fueling-the-economy/

First Eagle’s small-cap portfolio manager, Bill Hench, has a long track record of beating the market and the competition by discovering hidden gems among small-cap stocks with short-term problems.

WEALTHTRACK episode 1937, published on March 09, 2023

Award-winning personal finance columnist Jonathan Clements discusses the number one topic among his HumbleDollar newsletter readers and a strategy to ease the burden.  

WEALTHTRACK episode 1936 published on March 03, 2023  

In this second week of the winter fund-raising season for Public Television, we are revisiting a very popular interview from award-winning personal finance reporter and HumbleDollar editor Jonathan Clements. He addresses the new financial realities of higher interest rates and inflation and the impact they are having on portfolios and financial planning. This is an additional excerpt that didn't make it in the original interview.

This is additional commentary from Richard Clarida that didn't make it into the episode. Legendary Fed Chairman Paul Volcker was highly critical of the Fed’s policy of targeting 2% inflation, saying he saw “no theoretical justification” for it and that if successful, it “would mean the price level doubles in little more than a generation.” In this EXTRA exclusive, Former Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida defends the 2% solution.

Investing can be simple and accessible to the average person, says financial thought leader and economist Burton Malkiel. Malkiel, author of the investment classic "A Random Walk Down Wall Street," has 50 years of research to back up his claim. In his latest edition of the book, Malkiel emphasizes that investors would be better off buying and holding a broad-based index fund rather than attempting to buy and sell individual securities or actively managed mutual funds.

Malkiel's beliefs are supported by the track record of an investor who invested $10,000 in an index fund in 1977 and saw it grow to over $2 million by 2022, while an investor who purchased shares in the average actively managed mutual fund only saw the investment grow to $1.47 million.

Despite the changes in the market and the array of investment products and strategies available, Malkiel remains convinced of the validity of his original thesis. He explains why he still believes in the principles of "A Random Walk Down Wall Street" and offers his perspective on ESG investing, factor investing, and cryptocurrencies.

WEALTHTRACK episode 1933 broadcast on February 10, 2023

Bookshelf: A Random Walk Down Wall Street: The Best Investment Guide That Money Can Buy: https://amzn.to/40E5Pa1

Part 2 of 2

Matthew McLennan will assess the investment climate in international markets and tell us where he is finding world-class companies selling at substantial discounts to their U.S. peers.

The global economic outlook for 2023 is uncertain with the World Bank cutting its growth forecast to 1.7% from 3% and stating the "global economy is perilously close to a recession". The International Monetary Fund slightly raised its growth estimate to 2.9% due to China's reopening and slowing inflation. Central banks, especially in developed countries, are tightening to fight inflation, which may hinder future growth. The European Central Bank and the Fed have both raised short-term rates and signaled more increases in the future. A recent survey of 1200 CEOs shows 98% expect a global recession, with more than half fearing a recession worse than the 2008 financial crisis.

In Part 1, we discussed the risks and opportunities in the U.S. markets with McLennan.

WEALTHTRACK episode 1932 broadcast on February 03, 2023

More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/world-class-international-companies-selling-at-substantial-discounts-to-their-us-peers/

Listen to Part 1: https://wealthtrack.com/leading-global-value-manager-matt-mcclennan-on-companies-that-thrive-despite

Part 1 of 2

The Federal Reserve is currently facing a debate on Wall Street about how much longer it will continue to fight against inflation. The Fed's goal is to bring the inflation rate down to a long-term average of around 2%. Some investors believe that the Fed will continue to stay the course and keep fighting inflation, while others are tracking the slowdown in inflation indicators and believe that the Fed may cut rates in the second half of the year.

Matthew McLennan, Co-Head of the Global Value team at First Eagle Investments, is a leading global value manager with a successful track record of investing in the U.S. and overseas.

McLennan will examine the risks of monetary and fiscal tightening amidst high debt levels in the U.S. and discuss the types of companies that can succeed despite these challenges.

WEALTHTRACK episode 1931 broadcast on January 27, 2023

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/leading-global-value-manager-matt-mcclennan-on-companies-that-thrive-despite-us-investment-risks/

Bookshelf:

Against the Gods: The Remakable Story of Risk

by Peter Bernstein
https://amzn.to/409XVoj

Conservative Parties and the Birth of Democracy

By Daniel Ziblatt
https://amzn.to/3kRNpSv

The best advice investors could have received at the start of 2022 was to not fight the Federal Reserve as it embarked on its most aggressive tightening cycle in more than 40 years. By raising the federal funds rate and continuing to hike, investors who recognized the impact on bond and stock prices could have avoided a lot of pain.

As we move into 2023, the best advice for investors remains the same - "Don't fight the Fed." The Federal Reserve is being clear about its intentions to continue raising short-term interest rates and tapering its bond purchases until it reaches its target of bringing inflation down to 2%.

Richard Clarida, a highly respected expert in Fed policy and Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve under Chairman Jerome Powell, will be discussing these topics and more in this episode. He is currently a Global Economic Advisor at PIMCO, where he previously coined the phrase "New Neutral" in 2014, predicting that short-term interest rates would remain low for longer. He is also a key architect of the Fed's new policy framework of targeting an average inflation rate, allowing for higher rates of inflation without prematurely raising rates.

WEALTHTRACK episode 1930 broadcast on January 20, 2023

Charles Ellis, also known as "Charley," is a highly influential thinker in the investing world. He has been a frequent guest on WEALTHTRACK for 17 years and is considered "Wall Street's Wisest Man" by Money magazine. He has authored 20 books, with the most famous being "Winning the Loser's Game," which is now in its 8th edition. In 2022, he published "Figuring it Out: Sixty Years of Answering Investors' Most Important Questions," a collection of his most thoughtful and thought-provoking articles and essays. In Part One of our interview, Ellis discussed how much the investing world has changed over the years and his recommendation for individuals to take a total financial portfolio approach to financial planning.

In part two of his exclusive WEALTHTRACK interview, he discusses how individuals can create the best financial plan for their specific situation.

WEALTHTRACK episode 1929 broadcast on January 13, 2023

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/building-a-financial-plan-to-match-your-unique-needs-with-investment-legend-charles-ellis/

Bookshelf:

Inside Vanguard: Leadership Secrets From the Company That Continues to Rewrite the Rules of the Investing Business: https://amzn.to/3keDdn7

Winning the Loser's Game: Timeless Strategies for Successful Investing (8th edition):
amzn.to/3AbA9Nt

Figuring It Out: Sixty Years of Answering Investors’ Most Important Questions:

amzn.to/3UsNnxC

In the past, stock investing focused on individual companies and their specific attributes, with a relatively small percentage of the population participating. However, the markets have since expanded, and market participation, particularly through retirement accounts, has increased significantly. This has led to the realization that macro factors, such as the global economy, geopolitics, and domestic politics, are important to consider in investment decisions.

Jason De Sena Trennert, Co-Founder and CEO of Strategas Research Partners, is an expert in the macro picture. Strategas has been voted the top independent macro research provider by Institutional Investor for six consecutive years. Trennert discusses the major macro themes that will shape the investment climate for the foreseeable future.

WEALTHTRACK episode 1928 broadcast on January 06, 2023

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/leading-investment-strategist-jason-trennert-identifies-four-macro-themes-shaping-his-portfolios/

The original firm that Ed Hyman co-founded - ISI Group, International Strategy and Investment, recognized from the very beginning that China would have an important role to play in the world economy. How right they were. As China allowed the private sector to flourish and opened up to foreign investment, it became the world’s second-largest economy. Under the dictatorial regime of President Xi Jinping, many of those policies have been curtailed to China’s detriment. Hyman’s view of China has changed as well.  

WEALTHTRACK Episode 1927, published on December 30, 2022

WEALTHTRACK will be focusing on the theme of "what a difference a year makes" in 2022 and 2023, as there have been major changes in the economy and markets, including an acceleration in inflation, rising interest rates, a withdrawal of monetary stimulus, and a shift from liquidity-driven speculation to risk aversion. 

Jason Trennert, a financial thought leader and CEO of Strategas Research Partners, a leading provider of economic, market, and policy research, and his team have become bearish on the market due to the rapid rise in inflation and the Federal Reserve's commitment to its anti-inflation policies. 

Trennert discusses the ongoing pressures on the economy and markets and why there may be more market pain ahead.

WEALTHTRACK #1925 broadcast on December 16, 2022.

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/leading-strategist-jason-trennert-is-uncharacteristically-bearish-he-explains-whats-changed/

Ed Hyman, the number one ranked economist on Wall Street for 42 years, has warned of the unintended consequences of the Federal Reserve's rapid tightening policies. Hyman, who is Vice Chairman of Evercore and leads the economic research team at its Evercore ISI division, has been monitoring the factors behind the recent nominal GDP growth, including record low-interest rates and a surge in the money supply. However, inflation has been surging, and the Fed is raising rates at a faster clip, leading to weakness in the economy. Hyman's recent reports highlight the impact of the Fed's tightening measures.

WEALTHTRACK Episode #1924 broadcast on December 09, 2022

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/legendary-economist-ed-hyman-worries-about-the-unintended-consequences-of-feds-rapid-tightening/

Bookshelf:

Reminiscences of a Stock Operator: https://amzn.to/3FhYoex

One Up On Wall Street: How To Use What You Already Know To Make Money In The Market
https://amzn.to/3uBS2BM

Money problems are a major source of conflict for couples and a leading cause of divorce. Victoria Collins, one of the country’s top financial advisors for many years, has strategies to handle it.     
WEALTHTRACK #1922 published on November 25, 2022  

Bookshelf: Couples & Money Why Money Interferes with Love & What to Do About It
https://amzn.to/3V5DJRM

In an extended, exclusive interview newly retired Treasury bond manager Robert Kessler elaborates on his earlier warnings of the likelihood of a financial crisis and prolonged downturn in the markets.

Part 1 of 2

The ancient Greek philosopher Heraclitus said, “There is nothing permanent except change.” Charles Darwin certainly observed that in his trailblazing work on evolution more than 2000 years later. In a quote widely attributed to him, he is alleged to have commented, “It is not the strongest of the species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the one most adaptive to change.”

As the markets fluctuate around us, how much should investors change?

This week’s guest has his own historical perspective on that question because he has lived through a momentous evolution in the markets. He is Charles Ellis, whose storied career started on Wall Street in 1963 after graduating from the Harvard Business School.  He was a skeptical analyst during the go-go years of the 60s and founded Greenwich Associates, the top Wall Street consulting firm to major investment firms, institutions, and governments.

He was an influential board member of Yale’s endowment advising its legendary head, David Swensen. He’s taught advanced investment courses at both Yale and Harvard. And he has authored 20 investment books, including the classic, Winning the Loser’s Game, now in its 8th edition, and the recently published Figuring It Out: Sixty Years of Answering Investors’ Most Important Questions, which we will discuss in this week’s exclusive TV interview.

In the first of a two-part interview, Ellis will discuss the most significant changes that have occurred in the markets and what they mean for investors.

WEALTHTRACK #1920 broadcast on November 11, 2022

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/sixty-years-of-investment-wisdom-from-financial-legend-charles-ellis/

Bookshelf:
Winning the Loser's Game: Timeless Strategies for Successful Investing
https://amzn.to/3AbA9Nt

Figuring It Out: Sixty Years of Answering Investors’ Most Important Questions
https://amzn.to/3UsNnxC

Here’s our new financial reality, which we have become all too familiar with: higher inflation, higher interest rates, and higher levels of debt among consumers, corporations, and governments, which all add up to significantly higher costs of doing business, living life, and borrowing.

To fight higher inflation, the Federal Reserve continues to hike short-term interest rates.

This week’s guest has experienced multiple economic and market cycles during his more than 50 years of managing money and thinks the current one is particularly perilous for investors. In an exclusive WEALTHTRACK appearance, he felt it was important to tell us why and what steps we should consider taking to mitigate its effects.

Robert Kessler was the CEO of his namesake Kessler Companies from its founding in August of 1986 until he made the decision to close the business in October 2021.  Until then, he was a manager of fixed-income portfolios, specializing mostly in strategies using U.S. Treasuries for institutions and high-net-worth individuals around the globe.

He has been an annual WEALTHTRACK guest since our launch in 2005 and one of our most popular ones. He has been a consistent critic of Wall Street practices and group think, and for decades has been particularly disparaging of the Street’s consensus that Treasury bonds were an expensive and dangerous investment sure to bring losses to investors.

Robert Kessler explains why he thinks the markets are so dangerous for investors right now. A long-time critic of Wall Street and its pervasive groupthink.

WEALTHTRACK 1919 broadcast on November 04, 2022

More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/the-financial-markets-are-perilous-warns-robert-kessler/

Income and quality should always matter, but it’s markets like these when those characteristics really count.

Historically, since 1930, dividends have contributed about 40% of the S&P 500’s total return. Their input has varied widely from decade to decade, however.  According to a recent Insights Report from the Hartford Funds, dividends played a large role in terms of their contribution to total returns.

What sort of a role will dividends play now?

We have a new guest on WEALTHTRACK with a long and distinguished track record of investing in high-quality, dividend-paying stocks. She is Clare Hart, who Morningstar calls “one of the industry’s most impressive managers.”

Hart has been the Lead Portfolio Manager of two highly-rated funds since 2004.

Hart will discuss the benefits of focusing on quality and dividends, particularly in a   difficult market environment.

WEALTHTRACK #1918 broadcast on October 28, 2020

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/clare-harts-laser-focus-on-quality-income-has-paid-off-for-her-jpmorgan-equity-income-fund/

We are in the midst of a sea change in our financial lives. Here are the headlines:

-Inflation is surging for the first time in years and has reached the highest level in forty years.

-The Federal Reserve is embarking on the fastest and steepest tightening cycle in decades.

-Value stocks are outperforming growth stocks after lagging them by record amounts for nearly a decade and a half.

Is it time to make some changes to our financial plans?

Our guest this week is an award-winning personal finance journalist who has been a WEALTHTRACK regular since our launch in 2005.

He is Jonathan Clements, the founder, and editor of HumbleDollar, a free weekly online newsletter devoted to telling you “everything you need to know about money.” It is worth visiting. Clements was the personal finance columnist at The Wall Street Journal for 20 years and is the author of several personal finance books, including From Here to Financial Happiness and How To Think About Money.

Clements will give us his perspective on the much-changed financial climate we find ourselves in, and offer portfolio and financial planning adjustments for rising interest rates and inflation.

WEALTHTRACK #1917 broadcast on October 21, 2022.

More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/portfolio-financial-planning-adjustments-for-rising-interest-rates-inflation/

Humble Dollar: https://humbledollar.com/

Bookshelf:

From Here to Financial Happiness: https://humbledollar.com/book/from-here-to-financial-happiness/

How To Think About Money: https://amzn.to/3SmS3TF

My Money Journey: https://humbledollar.com/book/my-money-journey/

Part 2 of 2

When was the last time you heard an investment discussion about capital allocation and what difference it makes to investment results? It is not a widely discussed topic on Wall Street or in the financial press.

First of all, what is it? According to Investopedia, “Capital allocation is the process of allocating financial resources to different areas of a business to increase efficiency and maximize profits.” These decisions are made by the management teams and boards of companies. They include decisions like building a new plant, expanding into a new market or geography, increasing or decreasing the research and development budget, making an acquisition, paying a dividend, and repurchasing shares.

The lack of attention being paid to capital allocation decisions by companies has bothered this week’s guest for years, so he decided to write a book about it. It's titled Capital Allocation: Principles, Strategies, and Processes for Creating Long-Term Shareholder Value. He is Great Investor, David Giroux, Chief Investment Officer and Head of Investment Strategy for T. Rowe Price Investment Management and the Portfolio Manager of T. Rowe Price’s Capital Appreciation Fund, which he has run since 2006.

If you saw part one of my recent interview with him, you know that Morningstar calls him “One of the best in the business” and a “Pre-eminent investor at the top of his game.”

A major part of Giroux’s process of picking stocks is analyzing how they allocate capital. In this weekend’s episode, we will learn why capital allocation decisions are so important to investment success.

WEALTHTRACK #1916 broadcast on October 14, 2022

More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/david-giroux-on-the-importance-of-capital-allocation-decisions-to-investment-success/

Bookshelf: Capital Allocation: Principles, Strategies, and Processes for Creating Long-Term Shareholder Value
https://amzn.to/3CFDyWn

“What do we want to own when things are cheap?” is the question driving great investor David Giroux on a daily basis. 

Giroux is the Chief Investment Officer and Head of Investment Strategy for T. Rowe Price Investment Management. His reputation as a great investor has been earned as the  Portfolio Manager of T. Rowe Price’s Capital Appreciation Fund, which he has run since 2006. 

It’s been a rough year for the markets and Capital Appreciation, although it’s down less than the market and its category. In this weekend’s episode, Giroux will give us his view of the state of the market, its risks, and potential rewards. 

WEALTHTRACK #1915 broadcast on October 7, 2022

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/award-winning-investor-david-girouxs-laser-focus-on-what-he-wants-to-own-when-things-are-cheap/

Bookshelf: Capital Allocation: Principles, Strategies, and Processes for Creating Long-Term Shareholder Value

https://amzn.to/3CFDyWn

Volatility is the name of this market’s game. The Dow and S&P 500 both entered bear markets this week, although they both put up a brief fight with a robust rally on Wednesday. Yields on U.S. Treasury securities also bounced around.

These stomach-churning moves are hard to ignore unless you can take a longer view. This week’s guest is focusing on bigger investment themes and identifying cheap global sectors as the market sorts things out.

A year ago on WEALTHTRACK, in September of 2021, Research Affiliates’ Rob Arnott made two macro observations. One, he predicted there were “very high odds” of a resurgence in inflation. Two, that the multi-year outperformance of growth over value stocks was probably finally over. He dated the turn to August of 2020.

He proved prescient on the inflation call and so far seems to have gotten value’s comeback right.

Rob Arnott is Chairman of the Board and Founder of Research Affiliates, which is celebrating its 20th anniversary this year.  Research Affiliates describes itself as a “research-intensive asset management firm that focuses on innovative products.”

Among the many funds that Arnott created and now co-manages is the PIMCO All Asset Fund, also celebrating its 20th anniversary this year.

In this weekend’s interview, Arnott shares his outlook on inflation, value stocks, and his cheap diversifiers strategy. We also have an exclusive EXTRA feature with Arnott, who will discuss his penchant for high-performance motorcycles, including his most recent acquisition.

WEALTHTRACK #1914 broadcast on September 30, 2022

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/buying-into-fear-a-financial-thought-leader-fund-pioneer-explains-his-cheap-diversifiers-strategy/

Arnott on WEALTHTRACK from September 2021: https://wealthtrack.com/financial-thought-leader-rob-arnott-likes-buying-cheap-assets-where-he-is-finding-them-now/

This episode's guest is a longtime holder of Berkshire stock and has been an avid student of Buffett’s style of value investing since meeting the legendary investor at Stanford Business School in the early 1980s. He is Tom Russo, managing member of the investment advisory firm Gardner Russo & Quinn, where he oversees the Semper Vic Partners Funds, which he launched in 1983 after hearing Buffett address his class at Stanford.

The global value manager focuses on owning a small group of exceptionally well-managed, well-known brand name firms, many family-owned, with dominant, almost unassailable positions in their mostly consumer-oriented businesses, and then holding them pretty much forever. Berkshire Hathaway has consistently been one of his largest positions. In this weekend’s interview, we will learn how Buffett’s talk in graduate school made such a huge impression on him.

WEALTHTRACK #1913 broadcast on September 23, 2022

More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/how-a-concentrated-portfolio-of-global-brand-name-companies-is-faring-in-this-challenging-market/

Part 1 on portfolio concentration: https://wealthtrack.com/how-a-concentrated-portfolio-of-global-brand-name-companies-is-faring-in-this-challenging-market/

The Winston Churchill Foundation of the United States: https://www.churchillscholarship.org/

Poor Charlie's Almanack: The Wit and Wisdom of Charles T. Munger:

https://amzn.to/3UxRatE

How times have changed. It wasn’t many months ago that the entire financial world was singing the praises of inflation. The greatest fear among Wall Streeters and other financial lights was lower prices that might actually decline more and turn into that monster known as deflation. The thought conjured up nightmarish scenes of bread lines and bank runs.

Ever since the global financial crisis of 2008 and especially since the Covid pandemic, central banks and governments around the world have pulled out all stops to prevent such an occurrence. And guess what? It finally worked. After declining since the early 1980s, inflation has roared back to life, recently hitting 40-year highs.

But no one is celebrating. In fact, now central banks around the world have declared war on inflation, and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is leading the charge. The Fed has dramatically raised the federal funds rate several times this year, with more action to come.

This week’s guest has long been an avowed enemy of inflation and an outspoken critic of the Fed’s inflation-boosting policies. How is he feeling now? He is financial thought leader James Grant, the Founder, and Editor of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer. Grant is also the author of 9 books. Several are financial histories, including the prize-winning The Forgotten Depression: 1921: The Crash That Cured Itself.

Grant will discuss the Fed’s about-face on inflation, the battle it faces to bring it under control, the implications for financial markets, and two investment ideas for this new investment era.

WEALTHTRACK #1912 broadcast on September 16, 2022

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/inflations-damage-financial-consequences-investment-strategies-with-historian-james-grant/

In his WealthTrack interview and a recent issue of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer Jim Grant highlighted the small-cap equity fund Palm Valley Capital Fund (PVCMX) which holds mainly cash “awaiting the return of valuations at which an unbending, unconventional, uncompromising, value-seeking investor can put other people’s money to work”. Grant also recommended reading the firm’s quarterly letters to shareholders, “some of the best and wittiest financial-markets commentary on the web.”  Here is a link to the firm’s most recent missive. https://www.palmvalleycapital.com/fundletter

Bookshelf:

The Trouble With Prosperity: The Loss of Fear, the Rise of Speculation, and the Risk to American Savings: https://amzn.to/3ds0azQ

Money of the Mind: Borrowing and Lending in America from the Civil War to Michael Milken: https://amzn.to/3qGuSIK

The Forgotten Depression: 1921: The Crash that Cured Itself: https://amzn.to/3RQixO9

The bond world changed dramatically in 2022.  From several years of historically low to negative interest rates, as far as the eye could see, the horizon is now filled with rising rates across the globe. It’s a welcome change for yield starved investors and fixed income managers who have been coping with a record breaking yield drought. 

One of them is this weekend’s guest who recently reopened his fund to new investors because of the “improved opportunity set.” He is Tom Atteberry, now Senior Advisor to FPA New Income Fund having just retired, as planned, from his portfolio manager duties in July of this year.  He had been Portfolio Manager of the fund since 2004. 

Atteberry will discuss why they have reopened the fund and where they are investing now. He will also share his current preference for asset-backed bonds over Treasuries and corporates. 

WEALTHTRACK #1911 broadcast on September 09, 2022

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/the-new-investment-opportunities-being-discovered-by-award-winning-fpa-new-income-fund/

Global bond manager Jack McIntyre says central banks around the world are determined to stamp out inflation. Their success will determine the direction of markets and economies. He explains how he is investing for several outcomes.

WEALTHTRACK #1910 broadcast on September 02, 2022

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/why-inflation-is-now-key-to-investing-with-brandywine-globals-jack-mcintyre/

Bookshelf: Red Notice: A True Story of High Finance, Murder, and One Man's Fight for Justice, https://amzn.to/3CWQho7

We are joined by ClearBridge’s Investment Strategist Jeff Schulze. He will explain why he now believes that there is a 55% chance of a downturn, why a recession is not inevitable but what conditions could push it one way or the other. He will also discuss market implications and strategy.

WEALTHTRACK #1908 published on August 20, 2022

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/a-widely-followed-investment-strategists-indicators-now-signaling-heightened-recession-risk/

A special WEALTHTRACK podcast with influential economist and Fed watcher turned professor Paul McCulley. McCulley is an adjunct professor at Georgetown Business School and a very much in-demand speaker in financial circles because of his deep understanding of Fed policy, honed at bond giant PIMCO, where for many years he was Senior Partner, author of the influential Global Central Bank Focus and manager of its huge short-term trading desk. In this week’s podcast, McCulley shares his thoughts on where we are in the Fed’s tightening cycle, economy, and markets.

WEALTHTRACK 1907 published on August 14, 2022

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/influential-economist-and-fed-watcher-paul-mcculley-on-fed-policy-recession-prospects-and-the-markets/

Global value investor Tom Russo says today’s investment environment is the most challenging of his 40-year career. He explains why his core companies are up to the challenge.

WEALTHTRACK episode 1906 broadcast on August 05, 2022

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/how-a-concentrated-portfolio-of-global-brand-name-companies-is-faring-in-this-challenging-market/

Making money by losing less is how legendary small-cap value manager Charlie Dreifus has succeeded for over 50 years of investing. It's even more important now as he expects more economic and market pain ahead.

WEALTHTRACK 1905 broadcast on July 29, 2022  More info: https://wealthtrack.com/making-money-by-losing-less-in-this-bear-market-with-legendary-value-manager-charlie-dreifus/

Soon-to-be retirees and retirees are the most vulnerable in this new era of higher inflation, interest rates, volatile markets, and possible recession. What kinds of adjustments should they be making in their financial plans, investments, and even lifestyles?

That demographic is one of the specialties of this week’s guest, an award-winning financial planner. He is Mark Cortazzo, Senior Vice President and Financial Advisor with the Wealth Enhancement Group, an independent financial planning firm.

Cortazzo has received numerous awards and accolades during his 30-year investment advisor career. We are delighted that he has been a frequent WEALTHTRACK guest since our 2005 inception.

Over that time, we have discussed preparing for the increasing incidents of “black swan” events like the global financial crisis, pandemics, lockdowns, and wars. We’ve talked about alternative income strategies, transferring equity risk, and how timing can dramatically change retirement outcomes. We will cover those topics and more in this week’s interview.

WEALTHTRACK Episode 1902 was broadcast on July 22, 2022

More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/this-new-era-calls-for-a-complete-financial-reassessment-says-award-winning-advisor-mark-cortazzo/

Looking around the world, one of the most under-owned asset classes after years of underperformance is emerging markets.  And one of the least understood and appreciated at this particular time is Asia, especially China.  Once a darling of investors, it has lost favor for geopolitical, political, and business reasons.

So what better time to delve into Asia than now?

On this week’s program, we will be joined by Robert Horrocks, Ph.D. and Chief Investment Officer of Matthews Asia, one of the first American mutual funds to focus solely on the region.

Horrocks will bring us up to speed on China’s economy and markets and the other Asian markets he deems worthy of our attention.  Of particular interest to me is how to invest in this fast-growing region while minimizing China’s powerful political risks.

WEALTHTRACK Episode 1904 broadcast on July 15, 2022.

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/investing-in-fast-growing-asian-markets-while-minimizing-chinas-risk-with-matthews-asias-cio/

Bookshelf: Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk by Peter Bernstein
https://amzn.to/3PdN1s3

Peter Bernstein from the WEALTHTRACK Archives: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznI5J0QOR3N3u5qR3ezi8QUXs2-T-Gas

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder, and it turns out the difference between a growth and value stock is too, with price as a key determinant. 

Some of the darlings of last year and much of the prior decade have recently been rebalanced from growth to value by a major index provider. Such is the power of a bear market!

This week’s WEALTHTRACK guest is a well-known value manager known for her global and international investing.  We’ll be joined by Sarah Ketterer, Chief Executive Officer of Causeway Capital Management. Ketterer will tell us why she believes we are entering a new investment era and discuss some of the “outstanding” investment opportunities being created in the process. 

WEALTHTRACK Episode 1902 broadcast on Jul 8, 2022

More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/top-global-value-manager-sarah-ketterer-identifies-some-outstanding-bear-market-opportunities/

Ouch! The S&P 500 ended the first half of the year with its worst performance since 1970, down more than 20%, cementing its bear market status. And the recession drumbeat is getting louder. This morning, leading Wall Street economist, Nancy Lazar told clients “a recession is coming sooner than you think” PiperlSandler’s Global Chief Economist blames “sticky inflation”, “very aggressive Fed tightening, and a “severe corporate profit recession” for her forecast of a mild recession with the economy contracting starting in the final quarter of this year into the first half of next year. 

But this week’s WEALTHTRACK guest is way ahead of her and the few others just joining the recession club. He’s been warning clients about the likelihood of a downturn for months. 

Our guest is David Rosenberg, President, Chief Economist, and Strategist at his independent economic consulting firm Rosenberg Research which he founded in January 2020.

High inflation is at the top of the Federal Reserve’s, Washington's, and Wall Street’s list.  Rosenberg says they are looking at the wrong numbers and that disinflation is already taking hold. 

Interest rates are expected to go higher for longer.  Rosenberg cites evidence of economic slowing which will require easing sooner than expected. 

As I just mentioned, the likelihood of recession is still being debated. Rosenberg is forecasting a recession this year.  

What about the already steep bear market decline? Rosenberg warns about the lure of bear market rallies. 

Which prevailing views is Rosenberg challenging now?

WEALTHTRACK Episode 1901 broadcast on July 01, 2022 

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/influential-prescient-economist-dave-rosenberg-warns-of-imminent-recession-an-extended-bear-market/

Remember when some fans of cryptocurrencies called them non-correlated assets? They were supposed to behave differently from the stock market, not affected by traditional economic, political and fundamental forces? Cryptocurrencies were also dubbed digital gold, in the expectation they would hold their value in inflationary times. 

Neither has turned out to be the case. Bitcoin, the dominant cryptocurrency has fallen far more than the S&P 500 year to date, and in the face of higher inflation Bitcoin plummeted while gold has held its own.

Crypto advocates point out that Bitcoin has fallen by more than 50% eight times since its 2009 launch, and three times since 2018, and it’s recovered every time. And it’s been a top-performing asset class with better than 35% annualized returns over the last three and five-year periods and 80% annualized returns over ten years. In addition, an entire crypto industry has developed, which is expanding rapidly and being widely accepted by Wall Street, businesses, and some governments. 

This week’s guest is a believer. He is Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer and former Global Head of Research at Bitwise Asset Management, a cryptocurrency asset manager founded in 2017.

I began the interview by asking Hougan about the role crypto assets play in a portfolio, considering they act like stocks. 

WEALTHTRACK 1852 broadcast on June 24, 2022

More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/big-declines-are-normal-and-cryptos-potential-is-on-track-says-bitwises-cio-matt-hougan/

75 basis points: the biggest rate hike by the Federal Reserve since 1994 with additional aggressive moves expected. It looks like Fed Chair Jerome Powell is proving the naysayers wrong, who doubted he had the stuff to fight inflation. As influential Fed watcher Paul McCulley told WEALTHTRACK months ago Powell will “do whatever it takes” to fight inflation, just like Paul Volcker did in 1979/1980. Volcker succeeded, setting up conditions for the great bond bull market of the last 40 years but caused a serious recession to do it.

How do you manage through a cycle of rising interest rates and higher inflation? There aren't too many money managers who have that experience and have a track record of excellence through many different types of markets. This week’s guest does. She is Mary Ellen Stanek, Co-Chief Investment Officer of Baird Advisors.

Stanek was recently named Morningstar’s Outstanding Portfolio Manager of 2022 for her “disciplined and risk-aware approach, thoughtfully navigating various market environments,... and generating impressive absolute and risk-adjusted returns” in her 22 years at Baird. 

I interviewed Stanek a few days before the Fed meeting but she was prepared for it. We talked about the need for the Fed to get more aggressive in word and deed - which they did, where we are in the interest rate cycle - early days yet, and why she says “bonds are back!” 

WEALTHTRACK #1851 broadcast on Jun 17, 2022

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/morningstars-outstanding-portfolio-manager-of-2022-mary-ellen-stanek-says-bonds-are-back/

Related:

Investment legend Jeremy Grantham is known for his prescient forecasts of some major turning points in the markets over the years including his “epic bubble” characterization last year. He elaborated on the theme on WealthTrack saying that not only was the stock market trading in the stratosphere but so were the housing, commodity, and bond markets, the latter being the biggest bubble of them all.  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c13O6Amn1lQ

Paul McCulley on Fed Rates: https://youtu.be/Z0KSdIOkcxw

In a WEALTHTRACK exclusive legendary financial thought leader, Charles Ellis explains why after decades of searching for outstanding money managers he has become a big believer in indexing.

WEALTHTRACK Episode 1850 published on June 9, 2020

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/legendary-investment-consultant-charles-ellis-makes-a-compelling-case-for-indexing/

Part 2 of 2 Candid career advice from three super successful women portfolio managers. Causeway Capital’s Sarah Ketterer, Capital Group’s Karen Choi, and Canyon Partner’s Robin Potts share their victories, setbacks, and strategies as they tear down the pink wall.  

WEALTHTRACK #1849 published on June 3, 2022  

Part 1 of 2

The investment opportunities surfacing in the volatile stock, bond, and real estate markets. Causeway Capital’s Sarah Ketterer, Capital Group’s Karen Choi, and Canyon Partner’s Robin Potts share their perspectives.

WEALTHTRACK #1848 published on May 27, 2022

2022 has been a rough year for investors as financial markets have declined across the board. No matter what the market performance, investors continue to favor passive index funds over actively managed ones. 

Investors continue to favor ETFs, and exchange-traded funds over mutual funds. The vast majority of funds in ETFs are in passive strategies, but there’s an interesting divergence occurring. One of the fastest-growing segments in the ETF universe is actively managed ETFs. 

This week’s guest is involved in both actively managed mutual funds and ETFs and one of his main responsibilities is identifying best-in-class managers for both. He is Kristof Gleich, President and Chief Investment Officer of Harbor Capital Advisors. Prior to joining the firm in 2018, he was Global Head of Manager Selection at JP Morgan Chase. 

Harbor Capital is well known within the investment management industry but not in the general public. Begun as the pension advisory arm of old-line packaging manufacturer, Owens-Illinois, Harbor Capital became independent over 30 years ago. It is known for choosing top-quality independent money managers to run specific mutual funds under the Harbor Capital name. 

It currently oversees $55 billion of targeted strategies. It also recently launched a suite of actively managed ETFs, some with unusual strategies which we will discuss.   

I began the interview by asking Gleich to take us through the process of choosing money managers to partner with, who have what he calls an “alpha edge”.   

WEALTHTRACK #1847 broadcast on May 20, 2022

More info:

If you were to ask investors to name the biggest headwinds facing the markets,   higher inflation and interest rates and their potentially negative impact on corporate earnings would top the list. Just about everyone on Wall Street agrees we are in a new era of higher levels of both. But this week’s guest believes there is another area that poses even greater challenges to the global economy and markets: energy.  

Energy is under enormous pressure on numerous fronts: geopolitical, production,  distribution, and financing. It’s a combination creating a new era of energy insecurity.  Our guest is Tom Petrie, a long-time thought leader in the oil and gas industry.    Since 2012 he has been Chairman of Petrie Partners, an influential investment banking and consulting boutique to the industry. 

What is happening with U.S. energy independence? After decades of decline, U.S. oil production picked up significantly in the last decade and a half, largely thanks to the shale oil revolution, to the point where it surpassed Russia and Saudi Arabia’s output to become the world’s largest oil producer.  Despite that achievement, Petrie says the U.S. and the rest of the world are now approaching a possible energy crisis caused by a number of factors. One of the biggest: some new geopolitical realities, what he calls geopolitical fragility. We will discuss them at length as well as why he believes the current elevated levels of oil prices are unsustainable and why the outperformance of traditional energy stocks is as well! 

WEALTHTRACK #1846 broadcast on May 13, 2022

More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/rising-global-energy-insecurity-and-its-impact-with-industry-thought-leader-tom-petrie/

Bookshelf: Following Oil: Four Decades of Cycle-Testing Experiences and What They Foretell about U.S. Energy Independence

https://amzn.to/3FM4ymZ

Are you feeling at all overwhelmed by the pace and degree of change we are experiencing in the world, the economy, the markets, life in general?

A series of head-spinning turns in events ranging from rising inflation and interest rates, Russia’s relentless and brutal assault on Ukraine, and a surprise leak of a draft of a  momentous Supreme Court opinion are perfectly encapsulated by the dramatic market action of the last two days. After the Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates by half a percentage point (50 basis points) on Wednesday the Dow experienced its largest gain since 2000, up more than 900 points, nearly 3% to 34,061.06. Investors were evidently reassured by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments that the central bank was not “actively considering” raising rates by a sharper three-quarters of a percent (75 basis points). That reassurance turned to doubt on Thursday when the Dow made a U-turn, falling 1,063 points, a 3.1% drop, its largest decline this year.

As we have covered in several recent WEALTHTRACK episodes there appears to be a new world order emerging on several fronts which calls for new investment approaches. But what will the new order look like? How lasting the changes, and what are the best investment responses?

This week’s guest has the breadth, knowledge and experience to tackle all those questions and more. She is a long-time investment star who has never lost her influence or cool. She is Abby Joseph Cohen, now a professor at Columbia Business School, teaching the popular and oversubscribed “Future of the Global Economy” course which she has been doing as an adjunct professor since 2014.

I am delighted she is with us to discuss the contours of the new world order and their impact on the economy and markets.

WEALTHTRACK #1845 broadcast on May 06, 2022

Bookshelf:

The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
https://amzn.to/3w3OLvA

What do you do when your flagship fund goes from the top of its class to close to the bottom in a matter of weeks? From market trouncing to market lagging? That is the challenge facing this week’s guest. 

Alex Umansky, Portfolio Manager of the Baron Global Advantage Fund which he launched at the firm of legendary growth manager Ron Baron in 2012. Umansky oversees about $2.4 billion dollars in assets at Baron Capital including $1.7 billion at his flagship Baron Global Advantage Fund.

However, in mid-November of 2021, the bottom fell out for the majority of its holdings.  Global Advantage went from a 20% plus gain to a less than one percent gain by year-end, while its benchmark and competition fared much better. So far this year the fund is down 33% and lagging badly.  

In a wide-ranging discussion, Umansky discusses what’s changed and what in his mind hasn't, which is why he is doubling down on some of his hardest-hit holdings and is convinced they will be long-term winners.  

WEALTHTRACK #1843 broadcast on April 22, 2022

We are in a new era of higher inflation and the pressure is on the Fed! Inflation is running at 40-year highs and it’s coming from every angle: food, energy, services, goods, rents, and wages which are all increasing.  

Is the Fed up to the challenge? Can it rein in inflation without causing a recession? What can we expect as borrowers and investors?

We have lots of questions to ask this week’s guest but we know from his past performance he can take them all in stride. 

Paul McCulley is currently an adjunct professor at Georgetown Business School where he teaches a very timely multi-disciplinary course combining law, economics, monetary policy, global finance and behavioral finance.  

McCulley says this Fed has the courage to defeat inflation despite recession risk.

WEALTHTRACK #1842 broadcast on April 15, 2022

The new era of higher inflation and interest rates is already proving to be a challenging one for investors. The first quarter of 2022 was the worst one in two years for the stock market. Inflation reached 40 year highs, and in response, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time since 2018 and is signaling an aggressive policy of multiple rate hikes in the months ahead.

Then there are all the other disturbing and disruptive developments to consider: the extended impact of Covid on global growth, supply chain problems, Russia’s unprovoked war against Ukraine, and aggressive actions from China, North Korea and Iran.

How to navigate these challenges as investors is the job of this week’s guest. She is an influential strategist, Savita Subramanian who has two leading roles at BofA Global Research. She is Head of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Research, the first in that position, and the Head of U.S. Equity and Quantitative Strategy.

This is Subramanian’s first appearance on WEALTHTRACK so we will cover a lot of territory including why she believes the market is at a major inflection point.

WEALTHTRACK #1841 broadcast on April 08, 2022

More Info: http://wealthtrack.com/new-strategies-for-a-major-market-inflection-point-with-influential-strategist-savita-subramanian/

As bonds suffer the worst quarter in more than four decades we are exploring one of the fastest-growing segments in the fixed income markets where demand is still accelerating. It's in ESG, environmental, social, and governance standards being applied to corporate and government bond issuers and specific issues themselves. 

In part 2 of our interview with industry pioneer Steve Liberatore, we explore both ESG fixed income investing, as well as the relatively new area of impact investing where bond proceeds are directed to a specific project or goal and the results are measurable.   

In the previous episode about the state of the bond market in general, still very timely, you’ll know that Liberatore is the lead portfolio manager and head of ESG/impact for global fixed income at Nuveen, the investment arm of TIAA and a pioneer in the field. 

Liberatore will give us an update on socially responsible fixed income investing as well as a fascinating lesson on how impact investing works and the unusual opportunities in it.   

WEALTHTRACK #1840 broadcast on April 01, 2022

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/why-impact-bonds-represent-opportunities-for-investors-with-industry-pioneer-steve-liberatore/

From the Bookshelf:

Five Days in London: May 1940: https://amzn.to/3wXoC3w

Citizens of London: The Americans Who Stood with Britain in Its Darkest, Finest Hour: https://amzn.to/3K1I17a

Part 1 of 2

The direction of inflation and interest rates are key to the performance of bond prices and they are in the midst of a massive change. The shift in direction has been most dramatic for inflation. After a decade of staying mostly below the Federal Reserve’s long-term 2% target, the Consumer Price Index recently soared nearly 8% year over year.

Meanwhile, until very recently interest rates have remained near historic lows. Despite telegraphing it would for months, the Federal Reserve just raised its key short-term federal funds rate for the first time since 2018. And the short-term interest rate sensitive yield on the 2-year treasury note has risen accordingly while the longer-term 10-year Treasury yield has been more subdued.

It now remains to be seen how aggressively the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates to dampen economic activity and rein in inflation. Its decisions will heavily influence the performance of bonds not just in the U.S. but also in the rest of the world.

This week’s guest will update us on the prospects for the bond markets but also on the increasing influence of his specialty, sustainable bond investing, on performance.

Steve Liberatore, a pioneer in ESG and impact bond investing explains what the new bond era means for investors in general and sustainable investing in particular.

WEALTHTRACK #1839 broadcast on March 25, 2022

More info:https://wealthtrack.com/esg-bond-pioneer-steve-liberatore-explains-the-new-bond-era-and-esgs-role-in-it/

Bookshelf:

The Splendid and the Vile: A Saga of Churchill, Family, and Defiance During the Blitz: https://amzn.to/3tES2RV

Never Give In! Winston Churchill’s Greatest Speeches: https://amzn.to/3DqxrEt

The first interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve since 2018 happened this week, with the central bank planning six more of 25 basis points or one-quarter of a percent each this year.

The lending market is already ahead of the Fed. The average fixed rate 30 year mortgage topped 4% for the first time since 2019 in the latest reporting week. It's happening in a hot housing market. The median listing price for homes hit an all-time high of $392,000 in February and the inventory of homes for sale fell to a record low in January.

By raising rates the Federal Reserve intends to make borrowing more expensive. That’s supposed to dampen demand for goods and services and slow price increases, i.e., inflation down. With inflation running close to an 8% annual rate, a 40 year high, it remains to be seen how effective the Fed’s incremental approach will be.

This week’s guest, a noted investment strategist known for his macro analysis and thematic investing, expects long-term inflation to be higher than it's been in the past decade and believes most portfolios are not positioned for this new reality. In fact, he says the vast majority of investors, institutional and individual, are holding the winners of yesteryear instead of the winners of future years. He has recommendations to bring us up to speed!

He is Richard Bernstein, Chief Executive and Chief Investment Officer of Richard Bernstein Advisors; he says most portfolios are not positioned for a new era of higher inflation.

WEALTHTRACK #1838 broadcast on March 18, 2022

More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/how-to-reposition-your-portfolio-for-a-new-higher-inflation-era-with-top-strategist-rich-bernstein/

Russia’s brutal, unprovoked assault on Ukraine is dominating the news headlines, but so far its market impact has been short-lived. ClearBridge Investment strategist Jeff Schulze says what really matters to the markets in the direction of the economy and Federal Reserve policy. According to his proprietary Recession Risk Dashboard, the vast majority of his twelve key indicators remain positive.    

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/ukrainian-invasion-impact/

Since the future is essentially unknowable, this week’s podcast guest focuses on what is knowable and controllable, mainly our own reactions. He is veteran personal finance journalist Jonathan Clements, a former colleague of mine at The Wall Street Journal who was its personal finance columnist for nearly 20 years. The author of several books including From Here to Financial Happiness and How to Think About Money, Clements is the Founder and Editor of HumbleDollar, a free weekly newsletter devoted to telling you “everything you need to know about money.”  Veteran personal finance journalist Jonathan Clements explains why the most successful approach to dealing with turbulent markets is to stay invested.

WEALTHTRACK #1836 published on March 04, 2022

Target-date funds have $3 trillion dollars in assets. Millions of Americans are enrolled in them, mostly through company 401(k) plans. They have a track record, multiple products, plenty of competition and fees are declining as a result. 

In an article titled “In Praise of Target-Date Funds,” one of our favorite WEALTHTRACK guests, Morningstar’s Director of Personal Finance, Christine Benz described them as “...nothing short of the biggest positive development for investors since the index fund.”

That got my attention! So this week we are interviewing one of the best target-date managers in the business. He is Wyatt Lee, who is Head and Co-Manager of T. Rowe Price’s $390 billion Target Date Strategies, the largest group of actively managed target-date products in the U.S. 

The firm’s Retirement Series earned a Gold analyst rating from Morningstar, one of only two in the actively managed category, for its stellar performance and high ratings for its process, people, and the parent company. 

Lee begins with the basics and defines what a target-date fund does and how the product has evolved since it was first introduced in 1994. It turns out target-date funds can be an effective retirement vehicle for investors at all stages of life and that there are many options available. I learned a great deal from Lee. I hope you will too. 

WEALTHTRACK #1834 broadcast on Febuary, 18, 2022

More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/target-date-fund-advantages-with-t-rowe-prices-wyatt-lee-one-of-the-top-managers-in-the-business/

Yankee legend Yogi Berra famously said, “It’s deja vu all over again,” one of his many memorable expressions. That’s the way I feel this week.  

The “deja vu all over again” is the theme of “Don’t fight the Fed.” The Federal Reserve's recent pivot from inflation promoter to inflation fighter puts that adage front and center in the current debate between the bulls and the bears.

This week’s guest has been following that dictum during his 40-year investment career. He has been bullish since the Fed opened the monetary spigots in 2009. He is Ed Yardeni, a Ph.D. economist, long-time Fed watcher, and investment strategist who is widely followed by institutional investors. 

He is also the author of several books.  The latest, In Praise of Profits! is dedicated to progressives to help them understand that “profits isn’t a four-letter word.” 

Another Yardeni book is Fed Watching for Fun and Profit: a Primer for Investors, which we discussed in-depth in an earlier interview. In that book, he wrote: “To do this job well, I've learned that nothing is more important than to anticipate the actions of the Federal Reserve system’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) which sets the course for monetary policy in the United States.”  

Given the Fed’s change of policy from easing to tightening I asked Yardeni if he was becoming less bullish. 

WEALTHTRACK Episode #1833 broadcast on February 11, 2022

More Info:https://wealthtrack.com/despite-higher-inflation-and-interest-rates-ed-yardeni-makes-the-bullish-case/

Bookshelf:

Fed Watching for Fun & Profit: A Primer for Investors

https://amzn.to/3BhlQ9i

In Praise of Profits!

https://amzn.to/3uKvDng

Martin Zweig’s Winning on Wall Street

https://amzn.to/3uJJvOr

We appear to be in a new investment era, one of higher inflation and higher interest rates. It is a huge change from the “great moderation,” the multi-decade stretch of low inflation and falling interest rates since the early 1980’s.

With consumer prices soaring to 40-year highs the Federal Reserve has pivoted from its unusual role as inflation promoter to its traditional role of inflation fighter, which signals higher interest rates ahead.

Major macro shifts like these are always turbulent. How to navigate them without damaging your portfolio or psyche is our focus this week. Our guest is well suited to tackle this challenge because of his track record of capital preservation and long-term compounding.

Noted global value manager Matthew McLennan has a proven track record of building lasting wealth by investing in resilient investments, including gold.

WEALTHTRACK Episode 1832 broadcast on February 04, 2022

More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/resilient-investments-including-gold-are-matt-mclennans-method-for-building-lasting-wealth/

Termination Shock by Neal Stephenson:  https://amzn.to/3rs2n2B

One of the biggest changes of the past year has been the record number of Americans who are quitting their jobs. It’s so pronounced that it has a name. It’s called “The Great Resignation.” 

What The Great Resignation means for retirement planning is just one of the items on Christine Benz’ financial to-do list this year. Another major area of focus is adjusting to much higher inflation. Consumer Prices increased 7% in December versus a year ago, the fastest increase since 1982 and the third month in a row that inflation exceeded 6%. 

This elevated rate of inflation presents a big planning challenge.   Benz, who is Morningstar's Director of Personal Finance, is joining us for the fourth year in a row to help us get in financial shape for a new year and will tackle these important changes among others. 

WEALTHTRACK #1829 broadcast on January 14, 2022

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/rising-inflation-interest-rates-expensive-markets-call-for-reassessing-retirement-plans/

30-Minute Money Solutions: A Step-by-Step Guide to Managing Your Finances: https://amzn.to/3FlPtGZ

Morningstar Guide to Mutual Funds: Five-Star Strategies for Success: https://amzn.to/3fmW2i5

Part 2 of 2

Legendary value investor Bill Miller is betting big on bitcoin. The digital currency and some related crypto investments now account for half of his personal investment portfolio. In part two of our interview with Miller, he discusses his rationale for taking such an outsized position, including why he has converted from being a self-described bitcoin “observer” to a bitcoin “bull” and why he is adding to his holdings when the currency has big declines. 

Since Miller is also celebrating his 40th anniversary in the investment business we delve into how much the investment landscape has changed and how his value approach has evolved over the last four decades.

The conversation is not about Miller Opportunity Trust, it's about his personal portfolio. 

I began the interview by asking Miller why he has gone so big on bitcoin. 

WEALTHTRACK #1828 broadcast on January 07, 2022

More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/investment-legend-bill-miller-has-50-of-his-personal-portfolio-in-bitcoin-related-investments/

Bookshelf: 

The Intelligent Investor: https://amzn.to/3F4Dpd6

Reminiscences of a Stock Operator: https://amzn.to/3zy39O1

Great value investor Bill Miller remains the only fund manager to beat the market for 15 consecutive years. He discusses his current core holding winners and some recent promising additions to his legendary portfolio.

WEALTHTRACK #1825 broadcast on December 17, 2021

Since WEALTHTRACK’s inception, it’s been an annual tradition to sit down for a rare in-depth interview with Ed Hyman, Wall Street’s number one-ranked economist for an unrivaled forty-one years.

Hyman is a Wall Street legend known for his comprehensive, yet succinct daily bullet point reports on the economy covering multiple data points including his team’s proprietary company surveys covering a wide range of businesses.

Last year at this time the U.S. was emerging from lockdowns, vaccines hadn’t been distributed, Covid was resurfacing, fatalities were up but the economy and markets were rebounding sharply.

That was not a surprise to Hyman because of the massive amount of monetary and fiscal stimulus pouring into the economy.  As a matter of fact it was the major reason   Hyman predicted on WEALTHTRACK a year ago that 2021 would be a “blow out” year in terms of both economic and corporate earnings growth.

How would he describe it in retrospect and what are his economic and market expectations for 2022? Hyman answers those questions and more.

WEALTHTRACK #1824 published on December 10, 2021

Three successful women portfolio managers discuss what it takes to succeed in money management, including their best and worst decisions and crucial career advice.   

WEALTHTRACK #1823 published on November 30, 2021

More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/how-to-make-it-on-wall-street-advice-from-three-successful-women-portfolio-managers/

Part 1 of 2

Only 11% of U.S. portfolio managers are women. Three of them describe how they are “tearing down the pink wall” starting with their educational and job choices in part one of our two-part series.

WEALTHTRACK #1822 published on November 24, 2021

More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/from-education-to-job-choices-how-3-women-have-become-successful-portfolio-managers/

It's hard to keep a roaring bull market down. The S&P 500 marked its 66th record close of the year today and the NASDAQ Composite also hit a new peak. The strong performance once again raised the question: what to do with the dominant position mega-cap tech stocks have in most of our stock portfolios. It is a particular challenge for growth fund managers because that’s where the growth and performance has been for the last decade, especially the past few years.  

This week’s guest, Margaret Vitrano, and her ClearBridge team saw the high concentration of big tech in their portfolios last year as high risk and a threat to the diversification they see as essential to delivering their historically strong returns with downside protection. They met that challenge by reducing some significant winning positions and actually closing out a big one last year. Understanding why she did it and how she feels about it now can help the rest of us who face similar decisions.   

We’ll discuss why they made those sales and where they invested the proceeds as well as how they apply ClearBridge’s longstanding and rigorous ESG standards to their portfolios.

WEALTHTRACK #1821 broadcast on November 19, 2021

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/de-risking-the-dominance-of-mega-cap-tech-stocks-with-leading-growth-manager-margaret-vitrano/

Worried about inflation, especially after October’s big consumer price number? The CPI’s 6.2% increase from a year ago was the fastest 12-month gain since 1990 and the fifth month in a row of +5% inflation. 

What about rising interest rates? How about America’s economic standing in the world?   

Be prepared to question many of the negative assumptions you have been hearing and listen to some other data that shines a different light on the outlook. Our guest is a highly respected economist who is no pollyanna. She is just a top economist who looks at data many others miss.  

Nancy Lazar is Partner and Chief Economist of Cornerstone Macro. 

Lazar and her team are challenging the assumptions that higher inflation is here to stay, that interest rates have to go higher and that emerging markets will be the driver of global growth post-pandemic. 

I began our conversation with the capital spending question. In a traditionally consumer-driven economy, why is capital spending going to play such an outsized role? 

WEALTHTRACK #1820 broadcast on 11-12-21

More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/u-s-manufacturing-resurgence/

The demand for socially responsible investing strategies is growing and the cash flowing into them shows it. Exchange-traded funds with ESG characteristics - ESG of course stands for environmental, social, and governance - have attracted the lion's share of equity money in recent years. 

In true “follow the money” form, Wall Street has taken notice. There are now many different kinds of socially responsible investment products to choose from. One you don’t hear a lot about is values and faith-based investing, a niche that has been around for decades through separately managed accounts and a few mutual funds. 

This week’s guest just might change their low profile. He is a widely followed market strategist and successful investor, Robert Doll, Chief Investment Officer and Portfolio Manager at Crossmark Global Investments which he just joined this year.  

Doll will fulfill two missions for us. He’ll explain what values and faith-based investing means and update us on his current assessment of the markets and recommended investment strategies.     

WEALTHTRACK #1819 broadcast on November 05, 2021

More Info: http://wealthtrack.com/values-and-faith-based-investing-with-veteran-strategist-bob-doll/

There's a saying on Wall Street that the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.  And there’s a widely held financial theory called “Reversion to the Mean” that asserts that eventually asset classes will return to their long term average in terms of several factors including price, price/earnings multiples, and their performance relative to other asset classes like U.S. stocks.

Reversion to the mean for emerging markets stocks has been a long time coming.

This week’s guest, Michael Kass who runs Baron Emerging Markets Fund believes their time has come after a very long cycle of underperformance.

Kass will make the case for an emerging markets resurgence, especially stocks in the two largest markets, China and India.

WEALTHTRACK #1818 broadcast on October 29, 2021

More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/new-world-order-of-market-leadership/

Talk about a seismic shift! Inflation is back with a vengeance.  Higher prices are being felt throughout the economy by consumers and businesses alike. 

The Consumer Price Index, the most widely followed measure of price moves at the retail level, has just experienced its biggest year-over-year increase since the early 1990s. 

Are these price increases transitory as the Federal Reserve would lead us to believe or are we in a new era of higher prices not seen since the late 1970s? 

This week’s guest penned an editorial in The Wall Street Journal recently asking the question: “Does the Fed Have the Will to Fight Inflation?”

He is Financial Thought Leader Jason De Sena Trennert,  Co-Founder,  Chairman, CEO, and Chief Investment Strategist of Strategas Research Partners,  

Trennert will address the investment and strategy implications of higher inflation.  

WEALTHTRACK #1817 broadcast on October 22, 2021

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/financial-thought-leader-jason-trennert-on-the-financial-risks-of-higher-inflation-interest-rates/

WSJ Editorial: https://www.wsj.com/articles/federal-reserve-inflation-reduce-monetary-policy-price-stability-11633291208

The one constant in life is change, even for great investors. Earlier this year The Motley Fool Co-Founder, David Gardner announced that he was changing his focus. As he told fellow “Fools” as the global online investing community members jokingly refer to themselves: 

“....where you place your focus in life matters, and now I am choosing to shift my focus from the stock market and invest time in other endeavors. After nearly 30 years focused on publicly picking stocks, this wasn’t a decision I took lightly.”

It wasn't a decision The Motley Fool team, members, followers and at least one member of the financial press, namely me, took lightly either, which is why I wanted to talk to David.  

The good news is Gardner is not totally leaving the fold. He is Chairman of The Motley Fool Foundation, devoted to bringing “financial freedom to all.”

He remains Co-Chairman of The Motley Fool with fellow Fool Co-Founder and younger brother Tom, a very successful investor in his own right, who has also been managing and growing the business as CEO. 

David Gardner will continue as Chief Rule Breaker “for life” he expects, and he will continue his weekly podcast, “Rule Breaker Investing,” in which every ten weeks he recommends what he calls a 5-stock sampler theme, culled from The Motley Fool’s Stock Advisor and Rule Breakers picks. 

I asked Gardner to take us through his Rule Breakers rules. What are the lessons he’s learned from three decades of active investing?     

WEALTHTRACK #1816 broadcast on October 15, 2021

More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/3-decades-of-investment-lessons-learned-from-the-motley-fools-chief-rule-breaker-david-gardner/

It can take a long time for a bubble to burst.

Four years ago, in 2017, Grant's Interest Rate Observer, a highly regarded financial newsletter, wrote an article about the now infamous China Evergrande group. Back then, it was anything but a familiar name except in China and among some institutional investors.

The article was titled “Ever Higher” as Grant published a chart showing the extraordinary rise in China Evergrande's stock price on the Hong Kong exchange that spring.

Fast forward to 2021, and indeed, Evergrande, once the world’s most valuable property stock, has become famous as the world’s most heavily indebted property company. With an estimated $300 billion in debt, it also could become Asia's largest bankruptcy as China's government seems less and less likely to come to the rescue.

Why should the U.S. investors care? What if any significance does it have outside of China?

That is where financial thought leader, journalist/sleuth, and historian James Grant comes in.

Grant is the Founder and Editor of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, a twice-monthly journal about all interest-sensitive investments which pretty much covers the waterfront. It is considered a must-read by professional investors, including at leading hedge funds, private equity, and investment firms.

I started the discussion with Evergrande: why it warranted Grant’s readers’ attention back in 2017 and what it represents now.

WEALTHTRACK #1814 broadcast on October 01, 2021

More Info: http://wealthtrack.com/beyond-evergrandes-fall-its-far-reaching-impact-with-influential-journalist-historian-james-grant/

Bookshelf:

Money of the Mind: Borrowing and Lending in America from the Civil War to Michael Milken

https://amzn.to/3AZV2th

John Adams: Party of One

https://amzn.to/3ip3hb9

Bagehot: The Life and Times of the Greatest Victorian

https://amzn.to/3ASPReN

Large-cap U.S growth stocks, particularly tech stocks, have been the overwhelming winners of the last decade. They now dominate the market. The top ten S&P 500 stocks, including the FAANGs, account for more than 25% of the index’s total market value, a concentration that worries some market watchers because it is reminiscent of other market tops such as the dot-com bubble when internet stocks made up over 30% of the S&P and the credit bubble when banking stocks reached more than 20%.

With the exception of short-lived spurts value stocks, small-cap stocks and international stocks have badly lagged.

This week’s guest believes the days of this concentrated outperformance by large-cap growth stocks are numbered and suggests some underloved and under-owned alternatives. He is financial thought leader, innovator, and investor Robert Arnott, Chairman of the Board of Research Affiliates, which he founded in 2002 as a self-described “research-intensive asset management firm that focuses on innovative products.”

Among the innovations that he has pioneered is fundamental indexation: building indexes with stocks based on the size of their fundamentals, such as sales, profits, cash flow, book value, and dividends - not their stock price. Research Affiliates has created numerous fundamental indexes for a wide variety of markets and asset classes around the world.

Arnott will discuss why he believes this long era of U.S. large-cap growth dominance could be coming to an end and what could take its place.

WEALTHTRACK #1811 broadcast on September 10, 2021

More Info:

https://wealthtrack.com/financial-thought-leader-rob-arnott-likes-buying-cheap-assets-where-he-is-finding-them-now/

AGAINST THE GODS: THE REMARKABLE STORY OF RISK

by Peter Bernstein

https://amzn.to/3BURwjX

One of the biggest challenges for investors since the global financial crisis has been finding income.

Despite more than ten years of continuous predictions that yields on U.S. Treasuries and other developed country bonds couldn’t possibly go any lower, they have.

This week’s guest can help us. She is Kristin Ceva, Senior Portfolio Manager, directing Payden & Rygel’s nearly $14bn emerging debt strategies. She is also a member of the firm’s Investment Policy Committee. The independent global investment advisor oversees $145.5bn in assets, largely in fixed income for institutional clients but has a broad lineup of mutual funds as well. It is also an active participant in ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance)  investing which we will discuss.

Ceva has managed its Payden Emerging Markets Bond Fund since 1998.

Emerging market (EM) debt is a large, diverse, and evolving investing universe which is sorely underrepresented in most individual portfolios. I’ll begin the interview by asking Ceva to bring us up to speed on the state of the EM fixed-income markets and what investors need to know about the opportunities it presents.

WEALTHTRACK #1810 broadcast on September 03, 2021

More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/emerging-markets-bonds-offer-improving-credits-higher-yields-and-diverse-esg-opportunities/

A History of Interest Rates: https://amzn.to/3kPTj2V

In this era of indexing the investors who research and buy individual companies are becoming a rarity - some would say a throwback - to another era.  

The most obvious example is Warren Buffett, the nonagenarian Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway who is widely considered to be one of the greatest, if not the greatest American investor in recent memory. 

Buffett is famous for buying quality companies for the long term, in his words “forever”.

He is less well known for his emphasis on seeking “high quality shareholders”, stock owners who stick around for the long-term, whom he has succeeded in attracting to Berkshire Hathaway. 

This is part two of our interview with Lawrence Cunningham a Professor of Law at George Washington University who is also a driving force behind the university’s “Quality Shareholders Initiative”, intended to research and report on “high quality shareholders”, as they are dubbed by Buffett - traditional investors that study individual companies, acquire substantial stakes in only a few and hold them for the long-term.

The theme of this week’s discussion with Cunningham is quality in companies and shareholders and why a combination of the two often leads to better investment results.   

WEALTHTRACK #1809 broadcast on August 27, 2021.

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/quality-investing-shareholders-why-warren-buffet-believes-they-produce-better-investment-results/

“Quality Shareholders: How the Best Managers Attract and Keep Them”: https://amzn.to/38gshMr

In this week's WEALTHTRACK podcast, an interview with leading financial journalist Jason Zweig.  Since 2008 Zweig has written the widely read "The Intelligent Investor" column for The Wall Street Journal.  That, of course, is the name of the investment classic written by Benjamin Graham, considered to be the father of value investing.  Zweig has an intimate knowledge of the thinking of Graham because he edited the last revised edition of The Intelligent Investor with a forward written by Warren Buffett who calls it "by far the best book on investing ever written".

Zweig explains the enormous impact Benjamin Graham had on investing and why we should listen to him now.  

WEALTHTRACK #1808 published on August 22, 2021

50 years ago, on August 15, 1971, President Richard Nixon shocked the financial world by ending the convertibility of the dollar to gold, upending the monetary and currency exchange system that had been in place since 1944. This week Nick Sargen, author of Global Shocks, joins us to explain the consequences of that momentous decision which are still being felt today.

WEALTHTRACK #1807 published on August 13, 2021.

More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/multiple-asset-bubbles-50-years-off-the-gold-standard/

Global Shocks: An Investment Guide for Turbulent Markets: https://amzn.to/3AGasT3

Part 1 of 2

Warren Buffett, the Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway is considered to be one of the greatest investors of all time. He has become an American icon dispensing investment wisdom and commentary over the years through his annual shareholder letters and meetings where he and his long-time business partner Charlie Munger answer questions for hours on end about a wide range of topics.

An industry has developed around Buffett of investment clubs, newsletters, and books mostly focused on his investment decisions. 

However, there is another side to Buffett which has been deeply studied and researched by this week’s WEALTHTRACK guest... Buffett as a business manager worth emulating. 

We’ll be joined by Lawrence Cunningham, whose official title is a Professor of Law at George Washington University, but over the years he has become an acknowledged authority on corporate governance, corporate culture, and corporate law. He teaches business-related courses that span these fields. 

Cunningham has authored two dozen books, several on Buffett and his most famous in collaboration with him.His latest book is Quality Shareholders: How the Best Managers Attract and Keep Them.

He also writes a weekly column for Marketwatch, "Cunningham's Quality Investing."

One of the most interesting aspects of Cunningham's work with and about Buffett is the revelation that there are really two Buffetts, one the great investor that we all know about, and two, his later evolution into a great manager. We’ll focus on what we can learn from Buffett, the manager in this week’s show. 

WEALTHTRACK # 1805 broadcast on July 30, 2021

More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/great-investor-warren-buffetts-evolution-into-a-great-manager/

Bookshelf:

The Essays of Warren Buffett: Lessons for Corporate America: https://amzn.to/3C1Pq2y

Quality Shareholders: How the Best Managers Attract and Keep Them: https://amzn.to/3ffix94

Berkshire Beyond Buffett: The Enduring Value of Values: https://amzn.to/3ijSVdf

WEALTHTRACK Sponsors:

Morgan Le Fay Dreams Foundation

ClearBridge Investments: https://www.clearbridge.com/

Royce Investment Partners: https://www.roycefunds.com/

First Eagle Investment Management: https://www.feim.com/

Strategas Asset Management: https://www.strategasrp.com/

#MorganLeFay #clearbridge #royceinvestmentpartners #firsteaglemanagement #strategas

Part 2 of 2

What does history have to teach us about the current geopolitical, economic, and investment environment?  A great deal according to renowned historian Niall Ferguson. 

His thesis is that applying the lessons of history to contemporary events can result in better investment outcomes. 

One of the biggest, most consequential debates among economists, investors, and policymakers is over inflation. Is the recent global surge in prices a temporary blip from economies reopening from pandemic shutdowns, or is it a more lasting development with serious consequences?

In this week’s program we pick up on that point - I asked Ferguson about the opposite view, that the pandemic shock and burden of record amounts of debt could actually impede growth and be disinflationary.  Ferguson shares his views on this, along with his thoughts on China, cryptocurrencies, and the new world of decentralized finance.

WEALTHTRACK # 1804 broadcast on July 23, 2021

More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/renowned-historian-niall-ferguson-outlines-the-investment-risks-warranting-protective-strategies/

Bookshelf:

Doom: The Politics of Catastrophe - https://amzn.to/2Ujtdw3

Colossus: The Rise and Fall of the American Empire - https://amzn.to/2VL2HvP

The War of the World: Twentieth-Century Conflict and the Descent of the West - https://amzn.to/3epbI48

The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World - https://amzn.to/3z8p0u6

The Square and the Tower: Networks and Power, from the Freemasons to Facebook - https://amzn.to/3B9jKrH

If there is one adjective we have heard repeatedly in the last year and a half it is “unprecedented”. It has been applied to describe the amount of monetary and fiscal stimulus that’s been poured into the economy. It has been used in relation to the pandemic lockdowns and reopenings, and the record-breaking runs in stock, bonds, real estate, and commodity markets.

Is there no historical precedent for these events? 

Who better to ask than this week’s WEALTHTRACK guest, Niall Ferguson? Ferguson has studied booms, busts, the rise and fall of empires, the power of social networks, and catastrophes of all sorts including plagues and pandemics?    

He is one of the world's leading historians and an influential commentator on contemporary politics and economics. Ferguson is a Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, and at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard, along with being the author of numerous articles, and a regular columnist for Bloomberg Opinion.

His most recent book is Doom: The Politics of Catastrophe, which analyzes how societies have reacted to crises from the Roman response to the eruption of Mount Vesuvius to how various governments have handled Covid-19.

According to Ferguson, experience has taught him that understanding history does help make us better investors. In this week’s interview, he explains why.

WEALTHTRACK #1803 broadcast on 07-16-21

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/using-history-to-predict-the-markets-with-renowned-historian-niall-ferguson/

Bookshelf:

Doom: The Politics of Catastrophe - https://amzn.to/2Ujtdw3

Colossus: The Rise and Fall of the American Empire - https://amzn.to/2VL2HvP

The War of the World: Twentieth-Century Conflict and the Descent of the West - https://amzn.to/3epbI48

The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World - https://amzn.to/3z8p0u6

The Square and the Tower: Networks and Power, from the Freemasons to Facebook - https://amzn.to/3B9jKrH

Part 2 of 2

When legendary value investor Jeremy Grantham turned 80 he made two resolutions: “to be prepared to write a cheque up to the limits of your ability”, and to “say what you think you should say to everybody”. 

He is following through on both commitments. He is saying what he thinks he should say to everybody including us, to our benefit! 

In the first of our two-part interview last week, Grantham warned we are in a bubble of “epic proportions” in the U.S. stock markets, bond market, and global real estate and commodity markets. 

In this week’s show,  Grantham shares his views on climate change, why he calls it the “Race of Our Lives” and how he is investing to combat it.  

WEALTHTRACK #1802 broadcast on 07-09-21

More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/jeremy-grantham-shares-his-views-on-climate-change-why-he-calls-it-the-race-of-our-lives/

Part 1 od 2

We are celebrating the launch of WEALTHTRACK’s 18th season on public television this week! We feel so fortunate to serve you.

When WEALTHTRACK launched in July of 2005 our mission was to help our audience and ourselves build financial security to last a lifetime through disciplined, long-term, diversified investing. We vowed to seek out the best minds in the financial business to guide us.

This week’s guest is unquestionably one of them.

We’ll be joined by legendary value investor Jeremy Grantham, Co-Founder of the global investment management firm, GMO, Grantham is known for his prescient calls about market extremes and game-changing turning points. I will add that being far out of consensus is never popular.

He saw the tech stock bubble inflating in 1997, three years before it actually burst. It was an early call that cost GMO half of their asset allocation book of business at the time.

In the late 2000’s he warned of the developing subprime mortgage and credit bubble and came close to calling the actual 2008 bull market peak. He then called the market bottom nearly to the day in March of 2009.

When Grantham appeared on WEALTHTRACK in 2018 he was predicting a possible market melt-up, a powerful late-stage two to three-year-long market rally before an inevitable decline.

He got the melt-up right, even when figuring in the brief, 2020 pandemic induced bear market. And of course, the bull continues to this day. The U.S. stock market had an impressive first half of the year. The S&P 500 gained 14.4% to close at 4297.5, it’s 34th record close for the year.

Grantham will explain why he is calling this a bubble of epic proportions and suggest ways that investors can handle it.

WEALTHTRACK # 1801 broadcast on July 02, 2021

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/jeremy-grantham-shares-his-most-compelling-evidence-that-we-are-in-a-bubble-of-epic-proportio

For financial historians and serious market observers, the current era has all the signs of a developing market bubble. 

Money is abundant, a wide range of financial assets have risen to record or near-record levels, and enormous amounts of money are flowing into stocks. Private equity funds are flourishing and bonds continue to attract huge sums.  

Demand for residential real estate is soaring as are home prices. And despite recent dramatic declines, innovative products such as digital currencies have appreciated at breathtaking speed.

Speculative trading by individual investors has also increased as a new growing community of online traders has emerged as a potent market-moving force. 

The combination of all of these forces caused me to reach out to this week’s WEALTHTRACK guest. 

We’ll be joined by Jason Zweig, a leading financial journalist who since 2008 has written the widely read The Intelligent Investor column for The Wall Street Journal. Zweig will share his analysis of the current market climate and advice for investors.

WEALTHTRACK #1752 broadcast on June 25, 2021

How strong and lasting is the current rebound we are seeing in the economy? What about the resurgence in inflation? Those are major debates raging on Wall Street right now.  

This week’s WEALTHTRACK guest is looking beyond the current rebound and focusing on what he sees as massive problems which will act as drags on recovery. 

Robert Kessler, Founder, and CEO of Kessler Investment Advisors, a manager of fixed-income portfolios with a specialty in U.S. treasuries.

Even before COVID, Kessler has been warning about economic and stock market risk.  

On the program this week, he will discuss why he believes those risks have been exacerbated and the market is in a danger zone.  

WEALTHTRACK #1751 broadcast June 18, 2021

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/exclusive-with-robert-kessler-on-why-100-years-of-stock-market-history-are-signaling-danger/

The consensus for the economy is bullish. After a 6.4% annualized increase in real GDP, that’s without inflation, in the first quarter, recent forecasts are for 10% GDP growth in the second quarter, 7.5% in the 3rd, and 5% in the fourth. 

As for inflation expectations, they are up. Again the consensus is that the combination of a rapidly rebounding economy, supply shortages, and tight labor market will lead to a sustained rise in prices. 

The most prominent skeptic on that front is Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and other Fed officials who believe the price increases we are seeing now are transitory. 

This week’s guest, influential economist Dave Rosenberg is in the Powell camp on this one and believes the recent jump in inflation is temporary and that the overall bullishness on the economy and markets is wrong and will be challenged before the year ends. 

Dave Rosenberg is the outspoken and often contrarian Chief Economist and Strategist at his independent economic consulting firm Rosenberg Research.

I began the interview by asking Rosenberg why he is as convinced that the bullish consensus is wrong as he was when he went against the crowd at the height of the tech bubble in 2000 and the housing bubble in 2007.

WEALTHTRACK #1750 broadcast on June 11, 2021

More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/why-david-rosenberg-is-convinced-that-the-bullish-consensus-about-the-economy-and-markets-is-wrong/

For more detail about the evidence behind Dave Rosenberg’s convictions, he is generously sharing a recent comprehensive report, “No New Era” with us. 

https://bit.ly/3io9XHu

Times they are a-changin'… 

With COVID vaccinations becoming widespread, savings rates high, and consumers ready to spend, the economy is reopening and rebounding with gusto. 

All of these developments are creating new opportunities and challenges for bond investors. 

Bond prices fall when interest rates rise and vice versa. After a 40-year bull market in bonds, with interest rates declining to record lows, has the bottom finally been reached after many false starts? How real is this uptick in rates and what does it mean for bond investors? 

Our guest on WEALTHTRACK this week is Mary Ellen Stanek, Chief Investment Officer of Baird Advisors, and President of the Baird Funds, where she heads up the Fixed Income Team overseeing $91 billion dollars worth of bond investments. 

Stanek discusses the rapidly changing conditions and her team's all-weather bond strategy in what she calls uncharted waters.

WEALTHTRACK Episode #1747 broadcast on May 21, 2021

More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/new-opportunities-and-challenges-for-bond-investors-with-top-rated-bond-manager-mary-ellen-stanek/

“Jack be nimble Jack be quick” isn't a concept one usually associates with long-term value investors but sometimes extraordinary times call for exceptional responses. The first quarter of 2020 was one such event for this week’s guest. 

Steven Romick, who has appeared on WEALTHTRACK since our launch in 2005 rarely does television interviews which is one of the many reasons we are delighted to have him with us this week. For those of you not familiar with him, he is Co-Portfolio Manager of the FPA Crescent Fund which he founded in 1993 and ran for many years before bringing on his current team. Since its inception this go anywhere, invest in anything balanced fund has delivered better than 10% annualized returns besting the stock market and its balanced portfolio benchmarks by substantial margins. 

WEALTHTRACK #1746 broadcast on  May 14, 2021

More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/great-investor-steven-romick-loaded-up-on-unloved-stocks-during-2020-sell-off-whats-his-plan-now/

There is a rule of thumb on Wall Street that when a fund knocks it out of the park in any given year or has an exceptional winning streak for a couple of years it is bound to fall to earth sooner rather than later and lag the market, its peers, or both for several years. It's called reversion to the mean.

With few exceptions, this week’s guest has been in the winning streak category for a while. He is Michael Lippert, Head of Technology Research at Baron Capital and portfolio manager of the firm’s high-growth stock oriented Baron Opportunity Fund

Morningstar’s one caveat about the fund’s performance has been its volatility, as it focuses entirely on companies with high rates of growth, not on the mitigating effects of returning capital to shareholders with stock buybacks or dividends. Volatility is a topic Lippert tackled in-depth in a recent quarterly letter to fund shareholders. I ask him to share his views with us.

WEALTHTRACK #1745 broadcast on May 07,2021

More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/?p=22536

“The Volatility of Stock Investor Returns” Ilia D. Dichev, Emory University, Xin Zheng, University of British Columbia, 1/22/2021

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3663350

The shift from COVID lockdown to COVID reopening has been stunning. Depending upon the stage of reopening economies around the world are rebounding.

The markets’ response has been swift and dramatic particularly in the U.S.

So what do you do if you are running a highly concentrated, large-cap growth fund? That is the challenge facing this week’s guest.

Damon Ficklin is head of the Large Company Growth team at Polen Capital.

In his first appearance on WEALTHTRACK I will begin with the basics. I will ask him to describe Polen’s high conviction, the low turnover strategy of focusing on the highest quality growth companies with margins of safety.  What does that actually mean?

WEALTHTRACK #1544 broadcast on April 30, 2021

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/focusing-on-highest-quality-growth-companies-with-margins-of-safety-pays-off-at-polen-capital-2/

Beware the headline makers! According to Wall Street lore when a financial asset hits the front pages it can signal a turning point, either a recovery if negative, or a fall if positive.

What’s making headlines today? Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency-related investments, including dogecoin, a meme-inspired cryptocurrency created as a joke in 2013. “This is absurd,” said Billy Markus, the co-creator of dogecoin. “I haven’t seen anything like it. It’s one of those things that once it starts going up, it might keep going up.” 

Dogecoin however is not the real story. Bitcoin, the world’s first and largest digital currency is, as well as Ethereum, the second largest and the blockchain networks they support. 

And there are other players emerging. Coinbase Global Inc, the largest market exchange for digital currencies went public on the Nasdaq this week and its $85 billion market value easily surpassed that of the Nasdaq itself and ICE, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange. 

The cryptocurrency world has gone from fringe to close to the mainstream since our last conversation a year ago. Hougan will explain what’s driving the transformation, who the key players are, where the industry is going and the implications for investors. 

There is no question that Bitcoin and Coinbase and a few other cryptocurrency-related investments have arrived. As we write this Bitcoin’s market value is over one trillion dollars. 

On Wall Street money talks. Major firms including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and BlackRock are now offering Bitcoin products to clients. 

Our guest this week had the foresight and guts to get involved in ETFs in their early stages and more recently, in 2018 he threw his energy and career into cryptocurrencies believing they would become the next big, positive innovation for investors.   

WEALTHTRACK #1743 originally broadcast on April 23, 2021

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/bitcoin-entrepreneur-matt-hougan-explains-why-cryptocurrencies-are-suddenly-going-mainstream/

Matt Hougan in April of 2020: https://wealthtrack.com/flows-into-etfs-and-long-term-returns-on-bitcoin-are-staggering-matt-hougan-is-an-expert-on-both/

Have you noticed how rampant speculation is? Random investors seem to be making money hand over fist in numerous assets: disruptive companies like Tesla, whose stock has soared 600% in the last 12 months. Old economy stocks like video retailer GameStop up nearly 6,000% propelled by traders on commission-free trading platforms like Robinhood. 

These are not isolated events. The zeitgeist is becoming very bullish. Do you feel like you are missing out? Has the world moved on? 

No, it has not according to this week’s guest. In part 2 of our interview with financial thought leader, Richard Bernstein he makes a compelling case for long-term fundamental investing. 

Bernstein is Chief Executive and Chief Investment Officer of Richard Bernstein Advisors. Rich has also been a regular since WEALTHTRACK’s launch in 2005.  We’ve weathered our share of booms and busts over the years. He will discuss some time-tested strategies to invest successfully through both conditions.   

WEALTHTRACK #1741 broadcast on April 9, 2021

More info and the “Boomer knows best” - RBA Insights, March 2021” available here: https://wealthtrack.com/time-tested-strategies-for-successful-investing-with-hall-of-fame-strategist-richard-bernstein/

Navigate the Noise: Investing in the New Age of Media and Hype: https://amzn.to/2Rrfm5f

We have been living through an extraordinary period. It was a year ago that COVID was recognized as a global pandemic and since then over 100 million people have been stricken and more than 2 million have died. 

Economies were locked down causing severe recessions. Central banks and governments responded with unprecedented amounts of monetary and fiscal stimulus. A worldwide effort by pharmaceutical companies to develop effective vaccines did so in record time. Millions are now in the process of being vaccinated. Global economies are now recovering with China and the U.S. recovering at a rapid pace. 

Is the worst behind us? Are world economies and markets on a sustained path of recovery as many believe or are there serious hidden risks? 

Risks are the concern of this week’s guest whose top priority as a money manager is capital preservation. He is Matthew McLennan, Head of the Global Value team at First Eagle Investment Managemen.

Long before the pandemic, McLennan had been monitoring emerging geopolitical and financial risks globally, which he says were exacerbated by COVID. He’ll discuss specifics and how he is protecting his portfolios while still participating in aspects of the bull market.

WEALTHTRACK #1740 broadcast on April 2, 2021

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/preparing-for-the-next-correction-while-participating-in-the-bull-market-with-matthew-mcclennan/

When a fringe economic theory goes mainstream and is actually implemented by policymakers you better pay attention. The once-fringe theory in question is called Modern Monetary Theory, or MMT for short. 

The assumption behind MMT is that massive government spending helps the economy grow to its full potential, including full employment, and also finance major programs like universal healthcare, free college tuition, and green energy initiatives. Sound familiar? 

What about the burgeoning federal debt? Not an issue according to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. In an interview on National Public Radio this week Powell   said: “Given the low level of interest rates, there’s no issue about the United States being able to service its debt at this time or in the foreseeable future.” 

Enter today’s guest, Paul McCulley, who wrote an academic paperback in 2013 titled: “Helicopter Money, Or How I Stopped Worrying and Love Fiscal-Monetary Cooperation.”   

McCulley is currently an adjunct professor at Georgetown business school where he teaches a very timely multi-disciplinary course combining law, economics, monetary policy, global finance, and behavioral finance.  

I asked McCulley to explain why he believes helicopter money and the unprecedented fiscal and monetary cooperation we are seeing today is so essential, and not an issue.   

WEALTHTRACK # 1739 broadcast on March 26, 2021

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/financial-though…ey-are-essential/

“Helicopter Money, Or How I Stopped Worrying and Love Fiscal-Monetary Cooperation” available https://www.interdependence.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Helicopter_Money_Final1.pdf

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that 2021 is a year of significant political and macroeconomic change.

Meanwhile, the rollout of COVID vaccines is starting to unleash a year’s worth of pent-up consumer and business demand. 

That demand is also putting upward pressure on prices and inflation expectations. Those pressures are showing up in the bond market where yields on long-term bonds, the most sensitive to rising inflation expectations are rising. The price of 30-year Treasurys has fallen 15.6% in just three months. 

This is a huge change and could signal the end of the 40-year bull market in bonds that many Wall Street pros have been predicting for years. Perhaps they will now be proven right. 

This week’s guest has been telling clients that inflation will probably be higher than many believe, that a significant cyclical recovery is in the works and is bringing with it a major change in market leadership.   

He is a noted investment strategist known for his macro analysis and thematic investing. He is Richard Bernstein, Chief Executive and Chief Investment Officer of Richard Bernstein Advisors, 

Bernstein explains why the shift in market leadership from stable growth stocks to cyclical value ones is normal and durable, and how to participate. 

WEALTHTRACK #1738 broadcast on March 19, 2021

More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/richard-bernstei…tocks-is-durable/

In this week’s WEB EXTRA feature, Bernstein reflects on how the COVID experience has changed his professional and personal life.   

https://wealthtrack.com/bernstein-pandemic-effect/

Part 2 of 2

John Rekenthaler has been tracking mutual funds at Morningstar since 1988.  He correctly predicted early on that index funds would surpass actively managed funds. Now he sees a similar trend for ETFs as they attract record amounts of cash and mutual funds suffer outflows. 

WEALTHTRACK #1737 published on March 11, 2021

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/morningstars-john-rekenthaler-explains-why-etfs-will-surpass-mutual-funds-as-the-industry-standard/

John Rekenthaler, Vice President of Research at Morningstar and author of the twice-weekly “Rekenthaler Report” analyzes the influence of the online investment communities that have driven GameStop’s meteoric rise and stunning declines. Rekenthaler says their influence is here to stay, at least until regulators get involved. 

WEALTHTRACK #1736 published on March 05, 2021

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/the-manipulation-of-stocks-by-social-media-investors-is-the-focus-of-morningstars-john-rekenthaler/

The balance sheet of the Federal Reserve continues to surge at an unprecedented rate, up 83% y/y to a historic level, $7.59 trillion at the latest count.

According to our WEALTHTRACK podcast guest, financial historian, and long-time market observer James Grant, interest rates, the “central pricing mechanism for financial markets” have been pushed to artificially low levels by the Fed’s policies which have created numerous market bubbles. He cites Bitcoin as one of the most extreme examples.

WEALTHTRACK #1735 published on February 26, 2021

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/bitcoin-is-one-of-many-bubbles-of-historic-proportions-today-says-financial-historian-james-grant/

Common Sense: The Investor’s Guide to Equality, Opportunity, and Growth: https://amzn.to/3sxkIJm

Part 2 of 2

Old fashioned asset allocation used to be a fairly simple exercise: 60% individual stocks, usually U.S. large-caps and 40% bonds, mostly investment-grade corporates, some Treasury securities for liquidity, and a smattering of municipal bonds for higher tax bracket individuals.   

Today it's a whole different ball game, juggling multiple global asset classes, using complex computer modeling, algorithms, pricing formulas, and intensive analysis.  

This is the realm of Sébastien Page, head of T. Rowe Price’s Global Multi-Asset division where he oversees $350 billion in assets. Last week on WEALTHTRACK we discussed the concepts in his new book, Beyond Diversification: What Every Investor Needs to Know About Asset Allocation.  

This week we will address the current investment environment and how he and his team are positioning clients’ portfolios. What does Page think of these alternative asset classes? We’ll find out. 

WEALTHTRACK Episode #1734 broadcast on February 19, 2021

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/which-investments-are-poised-to-do-well-in-2021-strategy-advice-from-an-asset-allocation-pro/

AGAINST THE GODS: THE REMARKABLE STORY OF RISK: https://amzn.to/3dB4smt

Beyond Diversification: What Every Investor Needs to Know About Asset Allocation: https://amzn.to/3u2Syrg

Part 1 of 2: 

Talk to most investment professionals and they will tell you that portfolio diversification is the key to successful investing and that asset allocation among multiple asset classes, not individual security selection, accounts for as much as 100% of investment returns. Being broadly diversified among different asset classes is supposed to give you strong exposure to market rallies and protection in down markets as non-correlated assets zig when others zag and soften the downside impact.

However, there are times when diversification doesn’t seem to work. Take the huge sell-off in the spring of 2020, the shortest bear market in history when asset classes plunged pretty much across the board, even gold and Treasuries took a hit. 

What are the lessons to be learned about the usefulness of diversification from 2020’s experience? Is there a better way? 

Our guest today is a financial thought leader in asset allocation at T. Rowe Price. Sébastien Page, Head of Global Multi-Asset at the firm. Page is also the author of a new book titled Beyond Diversification: What Every Investor Needs to Know About Asset Allocation.

Page says diversification did fail in 2020’s bear market but that shouldn't surprise us, and yes, there is a better diversification strategy. We’ll find out what it is. 

WEALTHTRACK #1733 broadcast on February 12, 2021

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/portfolio-diversifications-failure-to-protect-in-bear-markets-calls-for-a-new-strategy/

Beyond Diversification: What Every Investor Needs to Know About Asset Allocation: https://amzn.to/3u2Syrg

One of the most notable characteristics of the last decade was the wide divergence in market performance. We have reported many times on the narrow group of superstars, mainly large-cap U.S. tech stocks and the much wider universe of laggards, value and small-cap stocks in particular. 

In 2020 that divergence blew up.  Small-cap went from worst to first. The year began disastrously.   Small-caps ended the year with their best quarterly gain ever, a stunning 31% advance in the index, handily beating large-caps for the quarter. 

When it was all over the Russell 2000 had gained 101.3% from its March 18th low to year-end, although it lagged large-cap and tech for the entire year.  

We have a WEALTHTRACK exclusive this week with an investment legend whose specialty is in-depth financial analysis in the small-cap universe. He is Charlie Dreifus, lead portfolio manager of the Royce Special Equity Fund 

Before delving into small-caps I asked Dreifus to share his perspective on current market conditions based on his half-century of managing money. A hint: he told me “I've seen this movie before, and it doesn't end well.”   

WEALTHTRACK #1732 broadcast on February 05, 2021

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/royce-special-equity-funds-legendary-charlie-dreifus-explains-his-winning-by-losing-less-strategy/

Blast off! Stock markets are setting records, with tech stocks leading the charge once again. “Don’t fight the Fed” should now encompass “don’t fight the Treasury, fiscal stimulus, vaccinations and investor demand for ‘real’ (after inflation) returns.” The Wall Street Journal reports that the “S&P 500 rose 14.3% from Election Day through Inauguration Day, its best performance on record for that period.” (The Wall Street Journal “Stocks Climb To Records, Led By Tech Sector” 1/21/21)   

In retrospect, 2020 was an entire year for the record books: 

- A once in a century global pandemic;

- Unprecedented, massive monetary and fiscal stimulus;

- A brief deep recession and the shortest bear market in U.S. history;

- A record-breaking stock market rally;

- The continuation of near record-low interest rates

- And the election of a new president with a very different policy agenda. 

Portfolio rebalancing is just one of the actions on Christine Benz’ financial to-do list this year. In part 2 of our interview with Morningstar's Director of Personal Finance, she helps us get in personal financial shape for the year ahead.  

WEALTHTRACK #1730 broadcast on January 22, 2021

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/2021s-financial-to-do-list-with-morningstars-personal-finance-guru-christine-benz/

Books mentioned in  the episode:

30-Minute Money Solutions: A Step-by-Step Guide to Managing Your Finances: https://amzn.to/3ig0cZE

Morningstar Guide to Mutual Funds: Five-Star Strategies for Success: https://amzn.to/3ifVVp8

COVID-19 has affected just about every aspect of our professional and personal lives, including the state of our finances.

Whether you or a loved one are among the more than 20 million Americans who lost their jobs in the spring of 2020 in the depths of the lockdowns, or one of the millions of Americans who saw their retirement portfolios plunge in the shortest bear market on record in February and March, (and if you stayed invested have benefitted from the markets rebound), or if you or a loved one are among the 20 million Americans who have been stricken by COVID your finances have been affected.

Financial services firm Morningstar has also been paying attention. In a recent article, “What the Coronavirus Means for the Future of Financial Planning,” its Director of Personal Finance, Christine Benz addressed the issue and we have asked her to enlighten us.

WEALTHTRACK # 1729 broadcast on January 15, 2021

More info:

Books mentioned in  the episode: https://wealthtrack.com/the-pandemic-era-requires-rethinking-financial-plans-says-personal-finance-guru-christine-benz/

30-Minute Money Solutions: A Step-by-Step Guide to Managing Your Finances : https://amzn.to/3ig0cZE

Morningstar Guide to Mutual Funds: Five-Star Strategies for Success: https://amzn.to/3ifVVp8

We have a special treat for you. Robert Shiller, a Nobel Prize-winning economist, a pioneer in the field of behavioral finance, long-time Yale professor, financial innovator, and prolific author. Shiller is also the co-creator of the widely cited gauge of U.S. housing prices, the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, and creator of the cyclically adjusted PE ratio known as the Cape Ratio which is a price-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 based on average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous ten years. Because it includes ten years of earnings many consider it to be a more reliable gauge of market value.

His presence could not be more timely. He is known for identifying the tech and housing bubbles long before anyone else did, and here we are in the midst of an economy crushing pandemic with home prices booming and stock prices hitting new records.  We started with the stock market, his analysis of the record-setting performance.

WEALTHTRACK # 1728 broadcast on January 08,2021

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/nobel-laureate-economist-robert-shiller-explains-the-narratives-driving-stock-and-real-estate-prices/

Links to Books mentioned:
Narrative Economics: How Stories Go Viral and Drive Major Economic Events:  https://amzn.to/3byPtbJ

Irrational Exuberance: https://amzn.to/38wq9RL

Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy, and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism: https://amzn.to/2JWdGNu

This week, in part 2 he will share his fifty years of economic perspective on the extraordinary events of 2020 and how the pandemic has changed the economy and markets. It will be a fascinating conversation with one of the best business cycle analysts of our era.     

Every year at around this time we sit down for an in-depth interview with legendary economist Ed Hyman. 

Hyman has been voted Wall Street’s number one economist in Institutional Investor magazine’s prestigious annual survey of institutional investors for an unprecedented forty years.    

WEALTHTRACK #1726 originally broadcast on December 18, 2020

More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/covids-extraordinary-economic-impact-from-wall-streets-1-economist-ed-hyman/

Part 1: https://wealthtrack.com/ed-hyman-expects-record-monetary-stimulus-plus-vaccines-will-speed-up-economic-growth-in-2021/

Suggested Reading: 

CREATORS: FROM CHAUCER TO WALT DISNEY, by Paul Johnson 

https://amzn.to/3r9NvDU

It's an annual tradition on WEALTHTRACK to sit down for a rare in-depth interview with Ed Hyman, Wall Street’s number one-ranked economist for an unrivaled forty years!  Hyman is a Wall Street legend. His ability to gather reams of economic data, including proprietary information from many sources including his weekly company surveys of industries ranging from retailers to restaurants, to homebuilders, truckers, and even Christmas tree vendors gives him an ability to take the current pulse of the many players in our huge and diverse economy.  

This year we have even more to discuss than usual. We have extended our conversation into an exclusive two-part series. This week Hyman will share his outlook for the economy in 2021. He’ll explain why he expects a “blowout” in the second half but also why there are considerable challenges to get from here to there. Next week we’ll get his perspective on the extraordinary events of 2020 and what he learned from the experience. 

This week we start with the present: the state of the economy and the markets now. 

I asked him to bring us up to speed on the economy’s rebound from its freefall in the spring.  How solid is the recovery? 

More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/ed-hyman-expects-record-monetary-stimulus-plus-vaccines-will-speed-up-economic-growth-in-2021/

According to Medicare benefits expert, Dr. Katy Votava COVID-19 has altered several aspects of Medicare coverage and procedures. She will tell us what’s different and how to take advantage of the changes. She will also help us meet the deadline for Medicare’s annual enrollment period which ends on December 7th and allows medicare beneficiaries to evaluate their Medicare Advantage Plans and part D, prescription drug plans, and shift to different providers if it makes sense. 

Votava is a Medicare expert who advises individuals, small businesses, and financial planners from her healthcare consulting business, GOODCARE.com. She is also the author of Making The Most Of Medicare: A Guide For Baby Boomers, now in its 7th edition and an Amazon bestseller. It is a straightforward, easy to navigate guide to Medicare which is a very complex multi-part system that frequently does warrant annual updating by its beneficiaries. An estimated 90 percent of Americans pay too much for their Medicare coverage. 

WEALTHTRACK # 1722 published on November 27, 2020

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/how-covid-19-has-changed-medicare-coverage-and-procedures-with-benefits-expert-katy-votava/

Medicare.gov – The official U.S. Government site for Medicare

1-800-MEDICARE

Shiptacenter.org – The State Health Insurance Assistance Program (SHIP) site that directs consumers to free Medicare counseling and assistance

Eldercare.acl.gov - Eldercare locator, a public service of the U.S. Administration of Aging, connecting you to services for older adults and their families. 1-800-677-1116   

Making The Most Of Medicare: A Guide For Baby Boomers: https://amzn.to/33mW4Rs

Can investing be simple? Can we stop worrying about what’s happening on Wall Street, in Washington, with Fed policy, inflation, corporate earnings, and numerous other headline-making concerns? Can we just get on with our lives and still invest successfully? 

According to this week’s guest, the answer is yes, and we shouldn’t even care what the market is doing.  

What should we care about? How should we invest? That is the focus of this week’s exclusive WEALTHTRACK interview.  

Our guest is Charles Ellis, the author of the investment classic WINNING THE LOSER’S GAME, available now in its 2017 7th edition. Ellis is the author of 16 other books including the recently published 10th-anniversary edition of THE ELEMENTS OF INVESTING, co-written with his good friend, Princeton economics professor Burton Malkiel.   

Ellis is a globally recognized financial thought leader, investment consultant, and advisor to governments, institutions, and endowments. He also cares deeply about helping investors succeed, as he puts it “winning the loser’s game.” He will help us do that this week. 

WEALTHTRACK #1721 broadcast on November 20, 2020

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/timeless-strategies-for-successful-investing-from-legendary-investment-consultant-charles-ellis/

WINNING THE LOSER’S GAME (2017 edition): https://amzn.to/379ODOP

THE ELEMENTS OF INVESTING: https://amzn.to/2UL96Dz

It’s been a roller coaster of emotions for investors this week.  Our focus is China. China of course is where COVID-19 originated in late 2019. It felt the impact first. It shut down vast swathes of its economy in response and it is now coming out of it, first.  All indications are that the world’s second-largest economy, by some measures occasionally the largest, is making a comeback. It looks like an impressive one. 

 The International Monetary Fund is predicting China’s economy will expand 1.9% this year, and estimates it will be the only major world economy to show any growth.

This week’s guest says that China’s economy is well on its way back to normal and that there are multiple opportunities for investors in the world’s second-largest stock market.  

Robert Horrocks, Ph.D. and Chief Investment Officer of Matthews Asia on how back to normal is China? We will find out.  

WEALTHTRACK #1720 broadcast on November 13, 2020

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/chinas-economic-comeback-flourishing-a-share-markets-offer-specific-investment-opportunities/

IMF: China’s economy will expand by 1.9% this year: https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/CHN

What a week! The widely predicted blue wave of Democrats sweeping into the White House, taking over the Senate majority, and increasing their dominance in Congress has failed to materialize. 

As far as the stock market is concerned, a divided government is a plus because not a lot will change in the way of tax policy and regulations. 

Investor optimism is not shared by Federal Reserve officials who expressed ongoing concern about the economy and the recent uptick in COVID-19 cases in today’s Federal Open Market Committee policy announcement. 

“The COVID-19 pandemic is causing tremendous human and economic hardship across the United States and around the world. Economic activity and employment have continued to recover but remain well below their levels at the beginning of the year... “

“The path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus. The ongoing public health crisis will continue to weigh on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term.”

Ongoing Fed stimulus is another reason Wall Street is bullish. 

At WEALTHTRACK we realize that we do not invest in a vacuum. What is happening in the world around us affects the markets and companies we invest in, which is why macro matters.

This week, in part 2 of our interview with financial thought leader, Jason Trennert we are going to identify some of the biggest trends that have been forming around us and are gaining momentum. 

Massive stimulus, big government, low-interest rates are three of the megatrends moving markets. Jason Trennert lists their winners and losers.    

WEALTHTRACK #1719 broadcast on November 06, 2020

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/leading-strategist-jason-trennert-identifies-the-powerful-long-term-macro-trends-driving-the-markets/

Federal Open Market Committee policy announcement: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20201105a.htm

One of the most striking financial characteristics of the pandemic experience has been the seeming disconnect between the economy and the stock market. The economy was severely damaged by the lockdown of business and sheltering in place policies put in effect earlier this year, but until this week the market has been rising with more stocks 

The unemployment rate which had fallen to 3.5% last year, the lowest level since 1969, skyrocketed with the lockdowns, reaching 14.7% in April, a level not seen since the Great Depression. Since then it’s fallen, to a still elevated 7.9 % in September, the last report before the election. 

How sound are the economy and markets going into the election? What could change?

Joining us with some answers this week will be financial thought leader, Jason Trennert. Trennert is co-founder, Chairman, CEO, and Chief Investment Strategist of Strategas, He says the wide policy differences between Biden and Trump call for different portfolio strategies post-election. 

WEALTHTRACK #1718 broadcast on October 30, 2020

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/election-portfolio-strategy-trennert-part-1/

COVID-19 reminded us that life-changing “Black Swan” events don’t just happen once in a century. They are an ongoing reality. 

In the last twenty years, we have lived through 9/11, the global financial crisis, and now a global pandemic with the unintended consequence of rolling economic lockdowns. 

On an investment level, all of these events have delivered a sharp hit to financial markets from which they have recovered. Such is the resilience and strength of the U.S. capital markets and the underlying economy. 

But on a personal finance level, the impact of these events can be much more damaging and long-lasting, particularly for individuals nearing retirement or in it, 

which is why we asked this week’s guest to join us. Clients in those vulnerable years are his focus. 

Our guest this week is Mark Cortazzo, a certified financial planner, Founder, and Senior Partner of MACRO Consulting Group an independent wealth management firm.

We asked Cortazzo to walk us through the conversations he has been having with clients about preparing for these “Black Swan” events. 

WEALTHTRACK #1717 broadcast on October 23, 2020

More info at: https://wealthtrack.com/financial-survival-through-an-unforeseen-crisis-with-top-financial-planner-mark-cortazzo/

Are we in the midst of a new economic expansion and secular bull market? Those are the signals from ClearBridge Investments’ Recovery Dashboard. Investment Strategist Jeff Schulze takes us through the indicators flashing green.  WEALTHTRACK #1716A published on October 21, 2020.

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/new-economic-expansion/

One extraordinary characteristic of this pandemic period has been stock market performance. A recent Wall Street Journal headline captures it perfectly: “Turbocharged stocks blast off.”  In its third-quarter market’s review, the Journal points out that “more stocks skyrocketed at least 400% in the first three quarters of the year than in any comparable period since 2000.”

This is not a tide that is lifting all boats, anything but. The overwhelming majority of the winners are tech or biotech-related. 

Whether value’s short-lived outperformance will continue is of particular interest to this week’s guest. She is Sarah Ketterer, Chief Executive Officer of Causeway Capital Management. The combination of its deep value and international focus has proven to be challenging in this era of high performing tech and U.S. centric stocks, but Ketterer and her colleagues now call this a value investor’s dream market as more high quality, financially strong companies sell at “shockingly” cheap valuations. 

Ketterer will discuss which ones, in particular, have caught her eye.  

WEALTHTRACK # 1716 broadcast on October 16, 2020

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/depressed-global-value-stocks-represent-a-value-investors-dream-says-fund-manager-sarah-ketterer/

WSJ-THird Quater Review: https://www.wsj.com/articles/these-stocks-have-rallied-more-than-400-this-year-11601458202

How surprised have you been by the market’s supercharged recovery from the March lows and the economy’s rebound from the COVID trough? By any measure, the snapback has been extraordinary. The shortest bear market in U.S. history, a mere 33 weeks from late February to late March, and a much faster recovery than expected.

As this week’s guest, Nancy Lazar told clients recently: “In the last expansion it took almost 9 years (until 2018) for unemployment to fall to 4.0%. Today the Fed expects (more likely wishes) to see 4.0% just 4 years into this expansion. And since this cycle’s Drivers are leveraged to the Fed’s main policy tool - interest rates - the Fed’s in a good position to make it happen.”

We will discuss why she is optimistic about the economy’s progress based on some unappreciated and under-reported trends she and her team have been tracking both pre-pandemic and now. Be prepared for a fascinating and different analysis of the U.S. economy and why its recovery powers are so strong.

WEALTHTRACK #1715 broadcast on October 09,2020

More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/why-the-4-forces-driving-the-economys-comeback-are-powerful-and-sustainable/

“Don’t fight the Fed” has become an accepted Wall Street adage. It’s a phrase coined by Martin Zweig, a legendary technical analyst, and investor who predicted the 1987 market crash to the day and was the author of the 1970 investment classic Winning On Wall Street.  Zweig wrote that “The monetary climate - primarily the trend in interest rates and Federal Reserve policy - is the dominant factor in determining the stock market’s major direction.”

Fast forward 50 years and “Don’t fight the Fed” is very much alive. This week’s guest has been following that dictum during his 40-year investment career.  He says we are in the midst of a Fed-induced market melt-up right now.

He is Ed Yardeni, a respected Ph.D. economist, strategist, and Fed watcher who leads  Yardeni Research, a global investment strategy firm he founded in 2007. A prolific writer, publishing a detailed daily Morning Briefing and comprehensive What I am Reading list, he is also the author of a new book,  Fed Watching for Fun and Profit: A Primer for Investors.

He’ll discuss why the Fed has become even more important in predicting the markets and what its current policies mean for investors.

WEALTHTRACK #1714 originally broadcast on October 02, 2020

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/why-fed-watching…-market-behavior/

Fed Watching for Fun and Profit: A Primer for Investors: https://amzn.to/30pSlkM

Winning On Wall Street: https://amzn.to/30rYhJI

How do you successfully take over and run a legendary fund with a 60-year track record of excellence? We are about to find out this week in a rare interview with a fund manager who is doing just that. 

The fund is the T. Rowe Price New Horizons Fund.  The small-cap growth fund has 34 billion dollars in assets and carries a Five-Star, Silver Analyst rating from Morningstar.

Prior to taking over the fund, Spencer established his own record of excellence with the T. Rowe Price Global Technology Fund which he ran from 2012 until early in 2019. During his tenure the fund delivered nearly 22% annualized returns, far outdistancing its benchmark and peer group.

What does New Horizons’ legacy mean to Spencer? How is he changing it? We’ll find out. 

WEALTHTRACK #1713 originally broadcast on September 25, 2020.

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/next-generation-great-investor-josh-spencer-on-taking-over-t-rowe-prices-new-horizons-fund/

COVID-19 has thrown a monkey wrench into many retirement plans as millions of Americans were thrown out of work and many were forced to tap into retirement accounts to pay the bills.  

The experience has made Social Security benefits even more valuable to potential and current retirees.  According to Social Security expert Mary Beth Franklin, they account for half or more of total income for 50% of married couples and 70% of unmarried individuals. 

They are the only source of guaranteed income for life for most Americans, and they have the added bonus of adjusting for inflation, thus protecting purchasing power. 

Mary Beth Franklin joins us to discuss how to make the most of Social Security benefits.  Franklin is an acknowledged expert on this topic.     

She has written that deciding when and how to claim Social Security benefits is one of the most important decisions that retirees will ever make. In this week’s show, I asked her how the pandemic is affecting those decisions.   

WEALTHTRACK #1712 originally broadcast on September 18, 2020

More information: https://wealthtrack.com/getting-the-most-out-of-social-security-mary-beth-franklin-on-maximizing-your-retirement-benefits/

Maximizing Social Security Retirement Benefits: http://www.investmentnews.com/MBFebook

COVID-19 has affected just about every aspect of our lives:  our jobs, our health, our family and social interactions, children’s education, and leisure time. 

But what has it done to retirement prospects? Not surprisingly, it has hurt them. 

According to a survey of American workers with qualified retirement savings accounts, “...almost half (49%)  had experienced a reduction in work income through job loss, or decrease in hours and/or a pay cut”.

Also, “...workers who lost their jobs or experienced a drop in income due to the COVID-19 pandemic were at least twice as likely to take money from their qualified retirement savings accounts as those who weren’t impacted.”   

Retirement plans for older workers are particularly stressed. Not only do they have less time to make up any shortfalls, but seniors are more at risk from COVID-19 than younger people, so returning to work is more problematic.   According to the Urban Institute, the combined rate of unemployment and underemployment for workers over 65 was 26% recently, much higher than for those between 25 and 54, and the largest gap on record.    

How can we improve our retirement plans to withstand the current shock of this pandemic and future crises, which will inevitably occur?   

This week we’ll be joined by one of WEALTHTRACK’s long-standing and most popular guests,  retirement expert Mary Beth Franklin.  Franklin is a Certified Financial Planner, award-winning personal finance journalist, Contributing Editor at InvestmentNews, and Author of “Maximizing Social Security Retirement Benefits.” 

Franklin explains what the pandemic has revealed about the state of retirement planning in the U.S., and how to best manage your own retirement in the current situation.

WEALTHTRACK # 1711 originally broadcast on September 11, 2020

More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/how-covid-is-affecting-retirement-with-retirement-benefits-expert-mary-beth-franklin/

Maximizing Social Security Retirement Benefits: http://www.investmentnews.com/MBFebook

Surveys & Articles:

https://www.limra.com/en/newsroom/industry-trends/2020/secure-retirement-institute-covid-19-related-job-loss-or-income-reductions-drive-americans-to-tap-their-retirement-savings/

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/26/business/retirement-coronavirus.html

17

All The Reasons To Be Bullish - This Week on WEALTHTRACKRemember the discussions about the shape of the economic recovery? Would it be a “V”, a “W”, or maybe even a hockey stick?

The jury might still be out about the economy, but as far as the markets are concerned there is no question. V’s abound.

The top five S&P 500 companies by market capitalization - Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Google’s parent Alphabet, and Facebook - all but the last topping a trillion in market value, are sharply higher.

It is no surprise to this week’s guest. Ed Yardeni turned bullish nearly to the day of the market turnaround. He and his team are now calling this a Fed-led meltup. They say it could turn into the Mother of All Meltups, what they jokingly refer to as MAMU if it continues. They would feel a lot better about its sustainability if the market had some sort of correction or consolidation. So far it hasn’t complied.

Yardeni is a Ph.D. economist, long time Fed watcher, and investment strategist who is widely followed by institutional investors.  He founded his own global investment strategy and asset allocation firm Yardeni Research in 2007, having held top investment positions at several major firms.

He is also the author of a new book, Fed Watching for Fun and Profit: A Primer for Investors, which will be the focus of another WEALTHTRACK.

This week, we’ll discover how bullish he still is and gets his advice for investors.

WEALTHTRACK #1710 broadcast on September 04, 2020

More info here: https://wealthtrack.com/all-the-reasons-to-be-bullish-with-veteran-strategist-and-fed-watcher-ed-yardeni/

Fed Watching for Fun and Profit: A Primer for Investors: https://amzn.to/31YHWh8

One of the biggest issues to emerge from the pandemic is income inequality. It has become even more pronounced as millions of low-income workers lose their jobs and the much smaller number of high-income workers keep theirs and benefit from a powerful bull market.

This week’s guest is on a crusade to change this dynamic, by giving opportunities to lower-income individuals and their families to achieve economic success.

He is Great Value Investor and Financial Thought Leader Joel Greenblatt. He has a new book Common Sense: The Investor’s Guide To Equality, Opportunity, and Growth and like Thomas Paine who successfully campaigned against the monarchical and tyrannical rule of Great Britain over the 13 colonies in 1776 with his widely-read pamphlet Common Sense, Greenblatt is on a crusade to disrupt the established order in a few key areas including education, corporate hiring, taxation, and immigration.

One area ripe for disruption is the education system which he says is “unfair, unequal and doesn’t make sense for those most in need.”

Greenblatt has tackled these inequities personally by co-founding and supporting the top-performing Success Academy Charter Network in New York. He has other real-world solutions to address these gaps.

Greenblatt’s investment bona fides are also impressive. He is Managing Principal and Co-Chief Investment Officer of Gotham Asset Management.

Normally investment strategy would be the focus of our entire conversation, but in today's pandemic pivot we are starting with an essential prerequisite for a successful capitalist democracy, economic opportunity for all.

In a wide-ranging discussion, Greenblatt explains why he, a professional money manager, felt compelled to write his version of Common Sense.

WEALTHTRACK # 1706 originally broadcast on August 07, 2020

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/great-value-investor-joel-greenblatt-on-some-revolutionary-ideas-from-his-new-book-common-sense/

Get the book “Common Sense”: https://amzn.to/33DKd2b

We are in a rolling economic crisis right now, subject to the vagaries of the advance or retreat of the COVID-19 virus.  It is an ever-changing scenario with stark winners and losers.

The economy contracted at an annualized rate of 32.9% in the second quarter, the sharpest decline in the 70 plus years of GDP tracking.

After several weeks of improvement, jobless claims for first-time unemployment benefits rose for the second week in a row. 17 million Americans are now collecting unemployment benefits.

So far, the markets have been betting on COVID’s retreat and global economic recovery with big tech leading the way.

How to handle these extremes as investors?

As we have so many times in the past, on this week’s WEALTHTRACK we are calling upon a veteran investor to give us perspective and investment advice.  https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznI5J0QOR3ONLK1lo5WTgjA5c3hAGHAt

We’ll hear from great investor Hersh Cohen, Co-Chief Investment Officer of Clearbridge Investments. With more than 50 years of managing money under his belt, Cohen edged out the S&P 500 with much less risk and volatility than the market.

WEALTHTRACK #1705 originally broadcast on July 31, 2020

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/crisis-investing-with-veteran-portfolio-manager-hersh-cohen/

"Hersh's Dividend Compounders" list is available here: https://bit.ly/39HSrrl

Safe haven investments are hard to find these days, which is why we need them more than ever.

We are faced with risks we haven’t experienced in living memory. A truly global and spreading pandemic, rolling government lockdowns, unprecedented involvement in securities markets by the Federal Reserve and other central banks, and massive stimulus from governments with payments to individuals and businesses.

Normally when corporate and government debt soars to record levels bond markets get nervous, bond prices fall and interest rates rise as investors worry about getting paid back.

Not in today's environment. The Fed has essentially pledged to keep short-term interest rates near zero and backstop numerous types of loans to prevent businesses from going bust and laying off workers.

That assurance and the “don’t fight the Fed” adage seem to be enough for most fixed-income investors who continue to chase yield, driving bond prices up and interest rates down.

Not this week’s guest. Tom Atteberry is a Portfolio Manager of the flagship FPA New Income fund. Atteberry brings us up to speed on conditions in the bond market, and how they have changed since Covid-19.

Atteberry will also share his One Investment recommendation with us – it might surprise you!

WEALTHTRACK #1704 originally broadcast on July 24, 2020

More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/safe-haven-investing-with-fpa-new-income-funds-tom-atteberry/

There are a few moments in one’s lifetime when the geopolitical and economic backdrop truly changes. COVID-19 and its aftermath are one of those moments. I call it “The Pandemic Pivot”.

The combined shocks of a highly contagious and in some cases deadly virus, global economic shutdown, rising populism, and global unrest are upending the old world order and introducing new disruptive dynamics yet to be fully realized.

In the meantime each of us has to live our lives, do our work and plan and invest for the future as best we can.

This week’s guest is one of them.  He is Matthew McLennan, a noted global manager, Head of the Global Value Team at First Eagle Investment Management

Long before this crisis McLennan has been talking about emerging global geopolitical and financial risks. He says the pandemic has exposed a number of vulnerabilities that we will discuss, as well as how he is managing through them. One particularly interesting aspect of his strategy is a renewed emphasis on gold as a long term substitute for cash.

WEALTHTRACK #1703 originally broadcast on July 17, 2020

More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/pandemic-uncertainty-risks-and-a-renewed-emphasis-on-gold-as-a-long-term-substitute-for-cash/

Part Two: We are living in extraordinary times. We are calling it the Pandemic Pivot: the changes that have occurred or accelerated because of COVID-19 and the dramatic response to it, from economic shutdown to massive life support.  The stock market performance has been largely driven by a small group of well-known mega-cap tech stocks which explains the NASDAQ and S&P 500’s stellar performance and the lagging broader markets. Apple, Microsoft, Google’s parent Alphabet, Amazon, and Facebook make up 40% of the NASDAQ’s market capitalization and 20% of the S&P 500’s.   Is the stunning rally off of the recent March lows durable? Are stock prices running on anything other than Fed fumes?  Yes, says legendary value investor Bill Miller! He will explain why he joins us for the second of our two-part interview with him.  

WEALTHTRACK Episode #1702 originally broadcast on July 10, 2020  

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/all-the-reasons-to-be-bullish-with-legendary-value-investor-bill-miller/  

Watch Part One: https://youtu.be/G5kee6K0lAw

We are marking the start of this season with the introduction of a new series. What we are calling the “Pandemic Pivot” - the rapid economic, market, and geopolitical shifts we are experiencing during the global health crisis. Through lockdowns and re-openings, the changes have been dramatic and swift. The huge, largely government-induced shutdown of global commerce ended the record-breaking economic recovery and the bull market in the U.S. The massive monetary and fiscal stimulus in response led to the shortest bear market in history and what could turn out to be the briefest recession ever - the jury is still out on this.

To make sense of these changes, we are turning to a great investor Bill Miller, Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Miller Value Partners.

This week, in the first of a two-part interview, Miller and I discuss how the world has and has not changed since the pandemic struck.

WEALTHTRACK Episode #1701 broadcast on July 03, 2020

More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/a-rare-in-depth-interview-with-great-investor-bill-miller-on-what-the-pandemic-has-changed/

One of the striking financial characteristics of this pandemic stricken world has been the extreme divergence between the sickening economic reality on the ground and the out of this world exuberance in the stock market, which started long before now when businesses are slowly and sporadically being allowed to reopen.

This week’s guest’s interpretation of the data is the polar opposite. He has widely followed economist, David Rosenberg, President, Chief Economist and Strategist at Rosenberg Research & Associates,

Last week, in Part I of our interview, he told us the economy was already going into a recession when the pandemic hit, that it has dramatically deepened, and that unless there is a vaccine soon, which he doubts will happen, that the damage will be lasting.

This week, in Part 2 of our interview with Rosenberg, he focuses on the markets. He says it is impossible to reconcile one of the highest unemployment rates since the Great Depression with the recent biggest 50-day post bear market rally in the S&P 500’s history and that something has to give. Despite the market’s impressive performance since the March lows, he remains bearish, calling the experience a classic bear market rally. In this week’s interview, we discuss what has led him to this conclusion.

Rosenberg will also explain why he believes the pandemic has brought about a fundamental shift to what he calls a “Homebody Economy”, and what that means for investors. He agreed to share his list of “How to invest in the Post-Crisis ‘Homebody’ Economy” with us on our website.

WEALTHTRACK #1651 broadcast on June 29, 2020

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/this-is-a-bear-market-rally-life-has-changed-homebody-investments-will-flourish-says-rosenberg/

Letter from the “Non-Bearish” Chief Economist: https://wealthtrack.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Letter-from-the-Non-Bearish-Chief-Economist_Special_Report_2020_05_06.pdf

In the first of a two-part interview, Influential economist David Rosenberg explains why “nothing is normal” after the COVID-19 pandemic. This is a picture that Rosenberg has been painting ever since the pandemic hit. And well before that he was deeply concerned about the economy’s weakness and the stock market’s vulnerability.

Dave Rosenberg is President, Chief Economist and Strategist at his independent economic consulting firm Rosenberg Research & Associates which he launched early this year with the stated priority of “…providing investors with analysis and insights to help them make well-informed investment decisions.”

He is known for his tell-it-like-it-is commentary, independence of thought, and high conviction calls which are frequently far out of the consensus. He will not disappoint in this interview as we discuss why “nothing is normal.”

More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/influential-economist-david-rosenberg-warns-life-is-going-to-change-permanently-after-covid-19/

Churchill: Walking With Destiny, By Andrew Roberts: https://amzn.to/2XXft9p

The impact of past pandemics on the U.S. economy and markets has important lessons for today says financial historian Richard Sylla, as does the record growth in both monetary and fiscal stimulus.

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/the-financial-impact-of-past-pandemics-has-important-lessons-for-today-says-historian-richard-sylla/

Reading List:

“Pandemics and Epidemics: Financial and Economic Effects” : https://www.moaf.org/publications-collections/financial-history-magazine/133/_res/id=Attachments/index=0/Pandemics%20and%20Epidemics.pdf

Alexander Hamilton on Finance, Credit, and Debt: https://amzn.to/3dzvrfh

Alexander Hamilton: The Illustrated Biography:  https://amzn.to/3cwM7mh

A History of Interest Rates: https://amzn.to/3dtnJ6e

Central banks and governments around the world are pulling out all the stops to replace income lost from COVID-19 shutdowns, including as we have seen in the United States direct payments to individuals.

We are devoting a WEALTHTRACK podcast this week to “Helicopter Money”, a concept coined by Nobel Prize-winning economist Milton Friedman who theorized that as a last resort in a deflationary depression the government could drop dollar bills from a helicopter for people to pick up and spend to “shock it out of a deep slump” with the “aim of boosting demand and inflation.”

That theory has now become reality and our financial thought leader guest, Paul McCulley believes it signals a new era whose time has finally come. McCulley will discuss the far-reaching policy changes now occurring and why he believes many will become permanent.

McCulley has been a WEALTHTRACK regular since the beginning, starting when he was Senior Partner at PIMCO where he was Founding Member of its Investment Policy Committee, author of the influential monthly “Global Central Bank Focus” and manager of its huge short-term trading desk overseeing an estimated $400 billion.

Since retiring from PIMCO in 2010 he has been busy writing, speaking, and teaching. He is currently adjunct professor at Georgetown University’s McDonough School of Business and Senior Fellow at Cornell Law School.

Influential economist and Fed analyst Paul McCulley says the concept of “Helicopter Money” from the government is here to stay and we are in a new era where monetary policy will play a subordinate role to fiscal actions.

More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/influential-economist-paul-mcculley-on-the-lasting-necessity-of-record-monetary-fiscal-stimulus/

McCulley from the  WEALTHTRACK Archives: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznI5J0QOR3PaQKEuSxDzoLjKWOBfvu7K

Can investing be simple? With the 20/20 vision of hindsight it sure looks that way.  Had investors just decided to stay in the U.S., invest in growth stocks, especially mega-cap tech stocks they would have hit the trifecta over the last decade or more.

Has the COVID-19 pandemic changed that formula for success? It has not. If anything it seems to have accelerated and accentuated it.

The extended FAANG family known by the acronym FAANGM for Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Google’s parent Alphabet, and Microsoft recently comprised close to 24% of the total market cap of the S&P 500, topping what dot com stocks reached at the height of the tech bubble.

Left in the dust by this juggernaut combination of U.S mega-cap tech are other stock market sectors including value stocks, small company stocks, and international markets, particularly emerging markets.

It just so happens that those are the very areas that this week’s guest believes we should be focusing on now.

He is financial thought leader, innovator, and investor Robert Arnott, Chairman of the Board of Research Affiliates, which he founded in 2002 as a self-described “research-intensive asset management firm that focuses on innovative products.” Among the innovations that he has pioneered is fundamental indexation - building indexes with stocks based on the size of their fundamentals, such as sales, profits, cash flow, book value, and dividends, not their stock price.

The firm just published its new forecast for various smart beta strategies. Here are the highlights:

Before getting into these contrarian assumptions I will ask Arnott how the pandemic and the policy responses to it have changed his investment views.

WEALTHTRACK #1647 broadcast on May 22, 2020

More info here: https://wealthtrack.com/really-cheap-markets-and-the-pandemics-hidden-toll-with-financial-thought-leader-rob-arnott/

Research Affiliates smart beta strategies: https://interactive.researchaffiliates.com/smart-beta#!/strategies

No doubt about it. The stream of economic news is terrible. The pandemic induced shutdown of much of the U.S. economy, Europe and other countries has resulted in stunning declines in employment, income, sales, earnings, government revenues, and overall economic output.

This week’s guest has been following and cataloging all of the economic and policy developments since the beginning of the pandemic and joins us with a summary and update on what it means for the overall economy, businesses, consumers, and investors.

We are delighted to welcome Ed Hyman back to WEALTHTRACK to share his current outlook with us. Hyman has been voted Wall Street’s Number One Economist for an unprecedented 39 years in Institutional Investor’s annual survey. No one else comes even close to that record.

He is Vice Chairman of Evercore, a leading independent investment banking and advisory firm, and the Founder and Chairman of its Evercore ISI division where he leads its economic research team.

For months now Hyman’s must-read daily reports have described the condition of the global economy as being in “free fall” and the policy response as “massive”. Just recently however he noticed a slight change.  As he described it the economic data was still “really bad,” but it was also, “better.”

He will describe both the “really bad” and the “better” for us.

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/wall-streets-1-e…amaging-2nd-wave/

How different will our world be as the nation slowly returns to work on a state by state, city by city, business by business basis?

In part II of our interview with financial thought leader, Jason Trennert, the Co-Founder, Managing Partner, and Chief Investment Strategist of leading macro research firm Strategas Research Partners he addresses the profound changes ahead.

Trennert believes the COVID-19 experience and its economic aftermath will alter the behavior of countries, individuals, businesses, and investors for many years to come.

He shares his assessment of the pandemic’s potential long-term winners and losers with us. If you missed his discussion last week, debating the merits of both the bullish and bearish case for the market and where he comes out.

WEALTHTRACK Episode 1645 broadcast on May 08, 2020

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/covid-19-is-changing-economic-investment-behavior-in-profound-lasting-ways/

Leading investment strategist, Jason Trennert periodically sends out thoughtful and insightful thematic essays to his clients.  He believes the pandemic and its economic consequences mean profound changes ahead for individuals, businesses, and investors. He was kind enough to share his viewpoints with us.

FREEDOM IN A FRACTIONAL RESERVE SOCIETY I and II

Long-Term Losers From the Pandemic: https://wealthtrack.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/TRENNERT-Pandemic-Losers.pdf

Long-Term Winners From the Pandemic: https://wealthtrack.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/TRENNERT-Pandemic-Winners.pdf

This week’s guest was concerned about high market valuations before the global pandemic hit and was recommending clients raise some cash.  It’s a call he and his team have reiterated since.

He is Jason Trennert, Co-Founder, Managing Partner and Chief Investment Strategist of Strategas Research Partners,

Trennert and his team have been busier than ever assessing the macro effects of the pandemic shutdown including policy, the public, and private sectors of the economy and the markets. In a recent report to clients, Trennert laid out the main arguments in the bull vs. bear debate and where he and his team stand now.  As he put it, “In times of acute stress in the markets, I find myself doing less modeling and more thinking.” We asked him to share his investment thoughts.

WEALTHTRACK #1644 broadcast on May 01, 2020

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/leading-investment-strategist-jason-trennert-lays-out-the-bullish-vs-bearish-cases-mid-shutdown/

We are witnessing massive policy responses of historic proportions. The fiscal and monetary reaction to the COVID-19 shut down of economies around the world has been unprecedented in its size and speed. How effective will it be and who stands to benefit from the stimulus? Who is at most risk of being left behind?

We have measured answers from a major player in resolving the Global Financial Crisis a decade ago.  John Lipsky, who was the First Deputy Managing Director at the IMF from 2006-2011 during the height of the crisis joins us with his in-depth analysis of the policy response then and now and perspective on current risks. He raises serious concerns about the economic health of southern Europe, Italy in particular and emerging market countries as well.  It’s a heads up for the international exposure of our portfolios.

John Lipsky

Former Acting Managing Director, International Monetary Fund

Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies:

- Distinguished Scholar at the Henry A. Kissinger Center for Global Affairs

- Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy Institute

WEALTHTRACK #1643 published April 24, 2020

When economies started shutting down in various parts of the world we all knew that the economic numbers would be bad. How could they not be? We are just now getting some measure of the initial damage in terms of unemployment, business activity, and earnings.

For some longer-term perspective on the economic and financial damage we are experiencing and some investment guidance I reached out to a trusted source for some advice. Nick Sargen, now Senior Economic Advisor at Fort Washington Investment Advisors, who has 50 years of experience as an international economist and global money manager. He is also the author of two timely books, Global Shocks: An Investment Guide for Turbulent Markets and Investing in the Trump Era: How Economic Policies Impact Financial Markets. 

A student of financial crises, Nick’s thoughtful and knowledgeable assessment of the state of the economy and markets and his advice for investors is definitely worth hearing. 

WEALTHTRACK #1642 published on April 17, 2020

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/expect-more-economic-market-damage-as-pandemic-repercussions-multiply-says-investment-veteran/

Retirees and near-retirees have suffered a punch to the gut and their portfolios with the coronavirus induced shutdown of the economy and the massive and precipitous market decline. After a decade which resulted in longevity records being set by both the economic recovery and bull market this black swan event was a stunner which requires a reassessment and regrouping of life plans, particularly for seniors.

The most important actions we can take are to have a plan to protect what we have, live within our means and limit the drawdowns from already battered portfolios. How do we find the right financial advisor to help us do that? That is one of the questions we will answer in this week’s WEALTHTRACK.

One lesson we learned from the last financial crisis and recession was panic selling resulted in permanent losses. Investors who kept their targeted stock allocation benefitted from the eventual market recovery.

Another lesson learned was the value of Social Security. No matter what happens in the market it is the one guaranteed, an inflation-adjusted annuity that most working Americans are entitled to. The longer Americans can delay collecting that benefit, until age 70 if possible, the bigger the lifetime payout is.

That is a point upon which our two guests heartily agree. Teresa Ghilarducci is a Professor of Economics at the New School for Social Research where she is Director of the Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), and the Retirement Equity Lab (ReLab), which researches the causes and consequences of the retirement crisis. Ghilarducci is co-author with former WEALTHTRACK guest, Tony James of Rescuing Retirement: A Plan to Guarantee Retirement Security for All Americans.

Jamie Hopkins is Director of Retirement Research at Carson Wealth, and Finance Professor of Practice at Creighton University College of Business. Hopkins, a frequent WEALTHTRACK guest is an expert on retirement income and author of Rewirement: Rewiring the Way You Think About Retirement.   

WEALTHTRACK #1642 broadcast on April 10, 2020

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/surprising-retirement-planning-essentials-from-diet-to-advisor-credentials-from-two-retirement-pros/

Books:

Rewirement: Rewiring the Way You Think About Retirement:  https://amzn.to/3ec2lDc

 Rescuing Retirement: A Plan to Guarantee Retirement Security for All Americans: https://amzn.to/2XoWnck

One of the biggest trends in investing in recent years has been the migration of investment dollars into exchange-traded funds and out of traditional mutual funds. The numbers are staggering. 

This week’s guest had the foresight and guts to get involved in ETFs in their early stages and more recently cryptocurrencies which are still in their development phase. We are going to get his update on both.  He is Matt Hougan, Global Head of Research at Bitwise Asset Management, a cryptocurrency asset manager. Hougan describes it as the “crypto equivalent of an S&P 500 fund.” 

He also is Chairman of Inside ETFs where he was CEO until joining Bitwise. Inside ETFs is the world’s largest ETF education and events company. 

He will give us advice on investing dos and don’ts in both investment vehicles.  

WEALTHTRACK #1640 broadcast on April 3, 2020.

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/flows-into-etfs-and-long-term-returns-on-bitcoin-are-staggering-matt-hougan-is-an-expert-on-both/

Life can change in a New York minute, and it has. The world is going through a terrible experience right now.  As President Trump has said we are at war with an invisible enemy.  I would add it’s an enemy that can strike anyone, anywhere which makes it so unsettling.

The coronavirus is upending lives and societies.  The steps we are taking to combat it are harsh, isolating, and damaging psychologically, emotionally, and financially. Everyone is affected.  Many Americans are losing their paychecks and jobs for an indeterminate amount of time. Some are in danger of losing their businesses.  

The cynic’s definition of a recession is when your neighbor loses her job.  A depression is when you lose your job.  Until we get a handle on the length and scope of COVID-19 we won’t be able to define its impact. 

This week’s guest comes from a family of investors who take the long view. He is third generation value investor Christopher Davis, Chairman and Portfolio Manager of Davis Advisors an independent investment management firm. Davis will provide some welcome perspective on how the firm has managed through crisis conditions for more than half a century.

WEALTHTRACK #1639 broadcast on March 27, 2020

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/third-generation-investor-chris-davis-share-50-years-of-perspective-on-managing-through-a-crisis/

The markets will fluctuate said J.P. Morgan.  We will add they can fluctuate dramatically and quickly. We are now living that reality daily.

The longest bull market in U.S. history, which began in March of 2009 saw stocks reach new highs in February only to plummet this month at historic speeds and magnitudes. The bull market officially ended on March 11th and the bear market began with a 20% plus decline in major markets from their previous highs. Since then the bear market has been deepening.

The longest economic recovery in U.S. history is also at risk.  What seemed highly unlikely to most economists just a few weeks ago, namely a U.S. recession is now becoming a consensus view.  All it would take is two consecutive quarters of contracting growth and it looks like the second and third quarters of 2020 will qualify.

Wall Street’s number one economist and WEALTHTRACK guest Ed Hyman issued his U.S. recession forecast on March 7th citing the triple whammies of oil price collapse, coronavirus economic impacts, and China-related supply chain disruptions.

Meanwhile, the bond markets are setting their own records. Yields on U.S. Treasury securities the 10-year Treasury note and the 30-year Treasury bond have both been reaching historic lows. When bond prices rise yields fall so Treasuries have once again proven to be safe havens as well as excellent investments in the face of stock market declines.

None of this is a surprise to this week’s guest who has been warning of economic and stock market risks for years on WEALTHTRACK and the value of owning U.S. Treasury securities and cash.

He is Robert Kessler, founder, and CEO of Kessler Investment Advisors, a manager of fixed-income portfolios with a specialty in U.S. Treasuries for institutions and high net worth individuals around the globe.

When Kessler was on WEALTHTRACK a year ago he warned there was a recession dead ahead. He said it’s all about debt.

WEALTHTRACK # 1638 broadcast on March 20, 2020

Before the coronavirus crisis, Matthews Asia’s Robert Horrocks was bullish on China’s investment prospects. He believes China’s stock markets are getting back on track to outperform in the years ahead.

WEALTHTRACK #1636 published on March 04, 2020.

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/china-coronavirus-aftermath/

"Current Conditions Call For a Long-Term Focus" : https://us.matthewsasia.com/perspectives-on-asia/market-updates/matthews-asia-perspectives-view/article-1708/Current-Conditions-Call-for-a-Long-Term-Focus.fs

Fears of a coronavirus induced hit to the global economy and corporate earnings drove stock markets into official correction territory today. It takes a 10% decline from the previous high to meet that definition and the Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ all exceeded that standard today after relentless selling this week.

For institutional investors, who are frequently judged on quarterly performance the safest course of action from a short-term performance standpoint is to sell first and ask questions later.  Individuals are under no such pressure. As frequent WEALTHTRACK guests and The Wall Street Journal’s “The Intelligent Investor” columnist Jason Zweig wrote this week, “The Pros Have to Sell Stocks Now. You Don’t.” The article gives very compelling reasons why.

How damaging will the coronavirus prove to be to business? In a WEALTHTRACK podcast, Nicholas Bohnsack, co-founder, and partner of top-rated macro research firm Strategas Research Partners assesses the evidence so far and why he and his team believe there are reasons for optimism longer term.

WEALTHTRACK #1635 published on February 28, 2020

The Pros Have to Sell Stocks Now. You Don’t.: https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-pros-have-to-sell-stocks-now-you-dont-11582722004?

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/coronavirus-the-markets/

The reality is most Americans have not met their retirement goals. Here are some findings from a recent Fidelity Investments Retirement Mindset Study which surveyed adults of all ages, both male and female. Eighty-two percent of the general population don’t have a retirement plan in place.

It’s not as if Americans aren’t worried about retirement. They are. Seventy-five percent feel only somewhat confident to not confident at all about their retirement finances.

What worries people the most about retirement? Economic concerns that can’t be predicted and are out of their control. The next big unpredictable area of concern is Social Security benefits. The third is inflation.

Needless to say, the biggest personal worry is outliving their assets.

We want to change this dynamic starting right now. And we have the right guest to help us. Kim Lankford is an award-winning personal finance journalist, now working freelance. She was a long time contributing editor and columnist for Kiplinger’s. One of the first steps she recommends to plan for retirement or manage it is to understand our monthly cash flows.

WEALTHTRACK #1634 broadcast on Feburary 21, 2020.

Episode web page: https://wealthtrack.com/filling-in-the-retirement-income-gap-with-insurance-expert-kim-lankford/

Fidelity Investments Retirement Mindset Study: https://www.fidelity.com/bin-public/060_www_fidelity_com/documents/fidelity/retirement-mindset-fact-sheet.pdf

Investopedia – Guide to Annuities: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/annuity.asp

Insured Retirement Institute - Glossary of Annuity Product Terms: https://irionline.org/research-and-education/educational-resources/annuities-glossary

In the current market cycle dating from 2009 coming out of the great financial crisis:

- Equities dominated bonds and commodities.

- The U.S. trumped international.

- Growth outpaced value.

- And large U.S. tech companies dominated just about every sector and security.

As in previous bull market periods, money flows to the best performers and flees the laggards. This record-setting U.S. bull market has also accentuated the attraction of index investing, as mutual funds and ETFs based on the S&P 500, in particular, have been among the decade’s stars.

It’s been a challenging period for active managers, especially those focused on value investing and international markets. This week’s guest checks off all of those boxes but remains a fierce advocate for all three approaches. She is Rupal Bhansali, Chief Investment Officer of International and Global Equities at Ariel Investments.

Bhansali shows how to apply it to the world of investing to improve one’s odds of achieving above-average returns with below-average risks. Her upside-down investment approach focuses on avoiding losers instead of picking the winners

WEALTHTRACK #1633 broadcast on February 14, 2020

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/non-consensus-value-investing-with-ariel-investments-rupal-bhansali/

Book: https://amzn.to/2SqA9DK   Non-Consensus Investing: Being Right When Everyone Else Is Wrong

When you are hot you’re hot and this week’s WEALTHTRACK guest has been on a tear since launching his Baron Global Advantage Fund in 2012. Alex Umansky is new to WEALTHTRACK but he is a seasoned investor with an outstanding track record.

Prior to joining Baron, Umansky spent 18 years at Morgan Stanley where he ran global and international funds as well as the firm’s Institutional Technology Strategy and Technology Fund. Umansky has a degree in finance, information systems and mathematics from NYU’s Stern School of Business and was a computer programmer early in his career.

Very few money managers have the opportunity to create a new fund, and a tiny percentage deliver the outstanding results Umansky has.  We will discuss what he sees as his competitive advantage at Baron Global Advantage, as well as his views on the “big idea, disruptive companies” he defines as his specialty.

WEALTHTRACK #1632 broadcast Feburary 07, 2020.

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/top-growth-manag…ustries-globally/

Are we witnessing the end of globalization, the dominant trade and economic force of the last quarter-century? That is what financial thought leader Richard Bernstein is suggesting to clients. In a recent report, aptly titled: Investing for December 31, 2029 -The End of Globalization, he makes his case. And yes, he is talking about 2029!

As he notes in his report: “Market leadership always changes decade by decade, and the leadership of the past decade, which are now lauded as ‘core investments,’ seem highly unlikely to be the leadership of the next decade.” If he is correct, which he has been frequently over the years, thinking about investing for 2029 is probably a healthy exercise.

Richard Bernstein is Chief Executive and Chief Investment Officer of Richard Bernstein Advisors, which he founded in 2009. It now oversees or advises over 9 billion dollars in assets, largely in multi-asset allocation strategies using ETFs for financial advisors.

WEALTHTRACK #1630 broadcast on January 24, 2020

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/the-end-of-globalization-is-a-game-changer-for-market-leadership-creating-new-winners-and-losers/

Investing for December 31, 2029 – The End of Globalization

http://www.rbadvisors.com/images/pdfs/RBA_Insights_Investing_for_2029_1219.pdf

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/

As we enter a new decade what are some of the major changes we face as investors? For answers, we are asking a global investor known not only for his past performance but also for identifying big themes that can have an outsized influence on the financial markets.

He is great investor Bill Wilby who has appeared with us exclusively since his retirement from professional money management over a decade ago.

He was the Portfolio Manager of the award-winning Oppenheimer Global Fund a graduate of West Point, Wilby also has a Ph.D. in International Monetary Economics and has held various international finance and investment positions at top financial institutions including the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

Wilby wanted to discuss a couple of themes with us. One is the privatization of the public markets, the other theme influencing Wilby’s investment strategy is what he calls the global trade reset which we will also discuss.

WEALTHTRACK #1629 broadcast on January 17, 2020.

At the beginning of every new year or at tax time when I am under the IRS deadline gun, I vow this year is going to be different and I will finally get organized and make decisions over time instead of at the last minute.

For the second year in a row, we have invited one of our favorite guests who is very knowledgeable and organized to join us. She is Christine Benz, Morningstar’s personal finance guru.

She writes daily personal finance columns for Morningstar, does interviews and podcasts and is the author of several books including 30-Minute Money Solutions: A Step-by-Step Guide to Managing Your Finances and the Morningstar Guide To Mutual Funds: 5-Star Strategies for Success.  She has also been a WEALTHTRACK regular since the beginning.

We asked her to take us through her financial to-do list for 2020. It is detailed so get out your pens, papers or smartphones and prepare to take notes when you join us.

WEALTHTRACK #1628 broadcast on January 10, 2020

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/get-your-financial-house-in-order-with-personal-finance-guru-christine-benz-financial-to-do-list/

Happy New Year and Happy New Decade! What will the 2020s bring? As J.P. Morgan famously said: “Stocks will fluctuate.”  In 2019 they fluctuated mostly higher and the U.S. was still the place to be. Tech giants such as FANG’s Facebook, up 56%, Google’s parent Alphabet, up 29% and Amazon.com up 23% propelled the NASDAQ 35% higher. The S&P 500 rose nearly 27% and the Dow Jones Industrials advanced over 22%, all trading in record territory.

It was pretty much a year for stocks all over the world, which is, of course, bringing the doomsayers out in droves. An excellent article on the front page of The Wall Street Journal’s Year-end Review & Outlook section is a good example. It’s titled: “Japan’s Lost 30 Years Give Pause To Those Looking at The U.S.”

What are the stories propelling economies and markets in 2020 and the decade going to be? It’s a podcast conversation we had with Nobel Laureate economist Robert Shiller about how important powerful narratives driving the economy are.

WEALTHTRACK #1627 published on January 03, 2020. More info at: https://wealthtrack.com/nobel-laureate-robert-shiller-explains-his-theory-of-narrative-economics-how-powerful-stories-influence-the-direction-of-the-economy/

Since launching WEALTHTRACK in 2005 we have asked economic legend Ed Hyman to share his new year forecast with us, which he has done pretty much exclusively since the beginning. We also invite a leading portfolio manager to join him. For the fourth year in a row, First Eagle’s Matthew McLennan is doing the honors.

This week we are presenting the second of our two-part series focused on the global economic and investment outlook. In case you missed it, we tackled the 2020 prospects for the U.S. economy and markets last week which you can see on WEALTHTRACK.com or our YouTube channel. 

In part one of our 2020 Outlook edition, Hyman predicted, as he did accurately for 2019, that the longest economic recovery on record in the U.S. would continue. He sees no signs of recession and believes that growth will actually pick up! He also forecasts that Wall Street will continue to climb a wall of worry, which he will describe in detail.

Matt McLennan is not as optimistic. One of his main concerns is the record levels of government and corporate debt in the U.S. and the problems it poses to future growth and liquidity, especially in the event of a slowdown. After the record-setting bull market run he also believes the U.S. market is expensive. He is investing very selectively in super high quality, market-dominant companies. He has a stash of cash to take advantage of sizable market declines and a significant position in gold to offset market risk.

We will start our global outlook discussion this week with one of the biggest headline events of 2019 - Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s “Get Brexit Done” victory in the United Kingdom which Hyman thinks has worldwide significance.

Every year at this time we are delighted to welcome Wall Street’s long-reigning number one economist, Ed Hyman to share his outlook with us.  And we always pair him with a leading portfolio manager with a global investment view. For the fourth year in a row, our choice is First Eagle’s, Matthew McLennan.

In the first of this two-part series on the Outlook for 2020, our focus is on the U.S.

Last year Hyman correctly forecast the now record-breaking economic recovery would continue and that a recession was several years away. We’ll find out what his view is now and get McLennan’s assessment of the U.S. markets.

Ed Hyman is a Wall Street legend. Vice-Chairman of Evercore, a leading independent investment banking and advisory firm, Hyman is the Founder and Chairman of its Evercore ISI division and leads its economic research team. He has been voted Wall Street’s Number One Economist for an unprecedented 39 years in Institutional Investor’s annual survey. No one else comes even close to that record.

Matthew McLennan, a noted global value manager is Head of the Global Value Team at First Eagle Investment Management where he oversees more than ninety billion dollars in assets, including several funds. His flagship First Eagle Global Fund which he inherited from legendary value investor Jean-Marie Eveillard in 2008 carries Morningstar’s Five Star and Bronze Medalist Analyst ratings and has outperformed both its World Stock Index and World Allocation category since its 1979 inception.

WEALTHTRACK #1625 broadcast on December 20, 2019

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/positive-2020-outlook-for-us-economy-says-wall-streets-1-economist-ed-hyman

There is a retirement crisis in this country. It is becoming more apparent as 10,000 baby boomers turn 65 every day. A recent Wells Fargo survey found that more than eight in ten current retirees fund their retirement primarily with Social Security, or a pension; just 5% do so from personal savings such as an IRA or 401(k). Seven in ten retirees say they would have “no idea what they would do” without Social Security.

Contrast them with younger generations who expect savings to be the top source of their funding; 45% of millennials say they must rely on IRAs or 401(k)s and only 25% expect to rely on Social Security or a pension.

No matter what income group you look at savings makes a huge difference. The top 10% of savers in all income groups, from the highest to the lowest consistently held 10-20 times the retirement wealth of the bottom 10% of savers.

What has caused the retirement crisis and are there policy and personal solutions to fix it? Two retirement experts will join us with some answers. Teresa Ghilarducci is a Professor of Economics at the New School for Social Research where she is Director of the Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA) and the Retirement Equity Lab (ReLab), which researches the causes and consequences of the retirement crisis. Ghilarducci is a co-author with former WEALTHTRACK guest, Tony James of Rescuing Retirement: A Plan to Guarantee Retirement Security for All Americans.

Jamie Hopkins is Director of Retirement Research at Carson Wealth, and Finance Professor of Practice at Creighton University College of Business. Hopkins a frequent WEALTHTRACK guest is an expert on retirement income and author of Rewirement: Rewiring the Way You Think About Retirement. 

WEALTHTRACK #1624 broadcast on December 13, 2019.

More info at: https://wealthtrack.com/americas-do-it-yourself-system-is-failing-many-retirees-answers-from-two-retirement-experts/

Last week’s podcast with influential and outspoken economist David Rosenberg generated a tremendous amount of traffic and comment. We are running part 2 this weekend.

Rosenberg had been predicting the end of both the record-breaking U.S. recovery and bull market this year. Needless-to-say it hasn’t happened, and he is the first to admit he missed this year’s impressive run in large-cap stocks as a result. However, his recommendation to own long-term Treasury bonds has paid off. Year-to-date the 30-year has delivered about a 20% return.

Rosenberg who is known for seeing emerging economic patterns before most others do, sometimes a couple of years early, is sticking to his guns in forecasting that a U.S. recession is imminent and is very concerned about the damage the record-breaking load of U.S. and global debt, what he  calls “the mother of all credit bubbles on steroids” will have when it occurs.  

What was intended as one session with us turned into two because he had so much evidence to share about global and domestic conditions and the state of the financial markets.

Last week he made his case for recession. This week his focus extends to the markets and recession resilient investments.  

As we mentioned last week, Rosenberg is launching his own macro research and strategy firm in January, Rosenberg Research and Associates. He explains why he decided to make that long-held dream a reality in our EXTRA feature on WEALTHTRACK.com. In the meantime, he remains as Chief Economist and Strategist at Toronto based wealth management firm, Gluskin Sheff.

More info at: https://wealthtrack.com/slowing-economies-record-levels-of-debt-are-a-dangerous-mix/

Influential economist David Rosenberg lays out a persuasive case for the end of the record-breaking economic recovery in part one of a two-part WEALTHTRACK conversation.

WEALTHTRACK # 1662 published on November 27, 2019.

Do corporations need a new purpose? Does the free enterprise capitalist system need a major overhaul or a tune-up?

We have two guests with strong views on the topic. Ken Langone is Founder, Chairman, and CEO of Invented Associates. He is Co-Founder of the Home Depot where he was Lead Director and a member of the executive committee of its board from its founding in 1978 until 2008. He is a noted philanthropist and the author of I Love Capitalism!: An American Story.

He is joined By David Gardner, the Co-Founder, and Co-Chairman of The Motley Fool, a global online investing service launched with his brother Tom in 1993. Motley Fool’s purpose is to make the world smarter, happier and richer by helping individuals become better investors.

WEALTHTRACK #1621 broadcast on November 22, 2019.

More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/is-corporate-americas-focus-on-profits-the-problem-with-capitalism-two-entrepreneurs-respond/

As the Dow and S&P 500 hit new records this week, there is much to contemplate and for the markets to digest in the final weeks of 2019. Time to consult Jason Trennert of Strategas Research Partners, a financial thought leader who has the scope to put it all together and tell us what it means.

WEALTHTRACK #1620 broadcast on November 15, 2019.

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/recession-bear-market-risks-with-financial-thought-leader-jason-trennert/

We are always on the lookout for the exceptional on WEALTHTRACK.  It’s not easy to find among actively managed mutual fund managers. Only 23% of actively managed funds in all major categories, including stocks, bonds, and real estate outperformed their passive index fund rivals over the last ten years. And only about 8% of U.S. large-cap funds outperformed passive, the smallest margin among all active fund categories winners.  No wonder that active U.S. stock funds are experiencing substantial outflows and passive stock funds are gaining assets. In a historic shift, passive assets in U.S. equity funds recently surpassed those in actively managed ones for the first time ever.

This week’s guests are bucking all of those trends. They are active managers in primarily large-cap U.S. stocks. They have been beating the market and peers by substantial margins over the last decade and they are attracting more assets.

Joining us for a rare interview is Chuck Akre and John Neff of Akre Capital Management

WEALTHTRACK #1619 broadcast on November 08, 2019.

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/finding-compounding-machines-with-the-great-investor-chuck-akre-his-gen-x-co-manager-john-neff/

Socially responsible investing has taken off and interest in it is accelerating.  As we’ve reported before on WEALTHTRACK, U.S assets invested in companies screened for ESG, or their environmental, social and governance policies grew 38% from 2016-2018 by more than $3 trillion to $12 trillion dollars.  According to U.S. SIF, or the Forum for Sustainable and Responsible Investment, which tracks these funds, that $12 trillion represents 26% or one in four dollars of the $46.6 trillion of U.S. assets under professional management.

This week’s guest is a leader in the relatively recent field of fixed income ESG investing, as well as the new area of impact investing in public fixed income markets, where bond proceeds are directed to a specific project or goal and the results are measurable. He is Stephen Liberatore, lead portfolio manager at TIAA Investments for responsible investment fixed income mandates that incorporate ESG criteria.

Liberatore will discuss what he looks for as a socially responsible bond investor in a field that has traditionally been dominated by equity investors.

WEALTHTRACK #1618 broadcast on November 1, 2019

Learn more: https://wealthtrack.com/bonds-with-social-impact-with-five-star-fund-manager-stephen-liberatore/

If you were to follow legendary investor Sir John Templeton’s advice to buy where there is maximum pessimism it might lead you to energy stocks. The energy sector has lagged the S&P 500 since 2016 and has been one of the worst if not the worst-performing industry sectors over the last year.

The fossil fuel industry has been hit with an almost perfect storm of headwinds and instability among major petroleum producers outside of the U.S.

The ongoing trade wars between the U.S. and China have also started to take their toll on global economic growth, increasing the downward pressure on demand for fuel.

What’s the outlook for traditional energy producers? Are they still viable investments or are they on their way to being phased out?