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Macro Voices

Macro Voices

Weekly market commentary by Hedge Fund Manager Erik Townsend and interviews with the brightest minds in the world of finance and macroeconomics. Made possible by funding from Fourth Turning Capital Management, LLC

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Energy Week #7: Tanker attacks, OPEC+, G20, Fed Policy. McMonigle/Hemsworth/Alhajji

This week's ENERGY WEEK features Anas Alhajji, Joe McMonigle and Patricia Hemsworth. Gulf tanker attacks and their consequences, China Trade, G20, OPEC+ and much more.
2019-06-20
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All-Stars #19 Prof. Steve Keen: Risks to Sweden and Nordic Economies

Today's MacroVoices All-Star Prof.Steve Keen recaps his recent trip to Sweden for the Central Bank Digital Currency conference, and comments on Swedish and Nordic economic outlooks.
2019-06-18
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All-Stars #18 Juliette Declercq: When will the Fed cut rates?

Today's MacroVoices All-Star is JDI Research founder Juliette Declercq. Juliette weighs in on what we can expect from this week's FOMC statement, and the disparity between equity and fixed income markets discounting different growth expectations. Also Yuan deval risk. 
2019-06-17
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All-Stars #17 Danielle DiMartino Booth: The Fed is setting the stage for NIRP!

All-Star Danielle DiMartino Booth is on fire this week! Danielle says the Fed's language change at the Chicago conference can only mean one thing: They're getting markets ready for NIRP. Not ZIRP, but NIRP!
2019-06-14
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MacroVoices #171 Josh Steiner : Canadian and American Real Estate Markets are Polar Opposites

Erik Townsend and Patrick?Ceresna?welcome?Josh Steiner to?MacroVoices. Erik and?Josh?discuss?U.S. and Canadian real estate, swelling mortgage debt in Canada and deteriorating household finances and more.
2019-06-13
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Energy Week: Natural gas backwardation in mid-summer?

Energy Week panelists Art Berman, Chris Cook and Patricia Hemsworth weigh in on anomalies in natural gas forward curves and what they mean. Also an update on the market sell-off and where it's headed.
2019-06-13
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All-Star Brent Johnson: This past weekend?s developments don?t change Brent?s Dollar-bullish view

Today?s MacroVoices All-Star is Santiago Capital's Brent Johnson, who says this past weekend's ECB and US-Mexico developments do NOT change his dollar-bullish outlook.
2019-06-11
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All-Star Luke Gromen: The USD-centric system is slowly losing ground

All-Star Luke Gromen says oil isn't the only commodity China will begin pricing in its own currency for international settlement, further evidencing China's commitment to de-dollarization. Also an update on Luke's tactical views on the USD.
2019-06-10
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All-Star Jeffrey Snider: Yield curves and Eurodollar futures say something is very broken!

Today?s MacroVoices All-Star is Jeff Snider, who says the yield curve and Eurodollar futures spreads spell a clear message for markets! Be sure to download the associated chartbook.
2019-06-07
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Brent Johnson: A big dollar rally could drag stocks higher with it

Erik Townsend and Patrick?Ceresna?welcome?Brent Johnson to?MacroVoices. Erik and?Brent?discuss?Brent?s ?Dollar Milkshake Theory?, short term and long term outlook on gold, and what impacts the dollar breakout will have on US and the global economy.
2019-06-06
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Energy Week: Sentiment sea change, Iran/Venezuela/Saudi Arabia & More. Panel Berman/Alhajji/Shuchart

This week's MacroVoices Energy Week features Art Berman, Anas Alhajji and Tracy Shuchart. Topics include the sentiment sea change and what's driving it, Iran, Saudi Arabia, & Venezuela, OPEC+ & much more.
2019-06-06
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Inside the Investment Committee: The 2016 big short in fixed income

The inaugural episode of MacroVoices INSIDE THE INVESTMENT COMMITTEE featuring Julian Brigden, Juliette Declercq and Alex Gurevich takes you inside the process professional fund managers and their advisers use to source and vet macro trading strategies.
2019-06-04
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All-Star Julian Brigden: The Fed needs to ease

Today?s MacroVoices All-Star is Julian Brigden, who says that the Fed needs to ease and why the dollar is crucial to kick off the next wave of the cycle
2019-06-04
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All-Star Steve Keen: Debunking the fake climate science of William Nordhause

Today?s MacroVoices All-Star is Professor Steve Keen, who says Nobel laureate William Nordhaus has failed to consider tipping points that will make the impact of climate change far worse than Nordhaus predicts.
2019-06-03
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All-Star Danielle DiMartino-Booth: Deflation is the name of the game unless/until helicopter money hits the stage

Today?s MacroVoices All-Star Danielle DiMartino Booth says deflation, lower commodity prices, and lower bond yields will be the theme going forward unless/until the political process brings MMT or other ?Helicopter Money? into the equation.
2019-05-31
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Lakshman Achuthan: Economic cycle analysis does NOT indicate end of business cycle

?Erik Townsend and Patrick?Ceresna?welcome?Lakshman Achuthan to?MacroVoices. Erik and?Lakshman?discuss?the concept of late cycle and how the cycle works, correlation between growth rate downturn and risks of a recession, and what the leading indicators show when the cycle is ending.
2019-05-30
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Energy Week Episode 4: There?s been a disturbance in the force! (What just happened?)

This week's MacroVoices Energy Week features Ole Hansen, Chris Cook and Patricia Hemsworth. What's driving this week's roller coaster ride in oil prices? China Trade? Iran? Inventory builds? Our panel weighs in.
2019-05-30
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All-Star Luke Gromen: There?s reason to think the U.S. Dollar is topping here

Today's MacroVoices All-Star Luke Gromen says that the Fed Funds rate moving stubbornly over IOER is a clear sign that the Fed will soon be forced to supply more dollar liquidity, a bearish sign given current sentiment extremes.
2019-05-29
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All-Star Dr. Pippa Malmgren: Geopolitics is increasingly important for investors!

Today's MacroVoices All-Star Dr.Pippa Malmgren says that between the U.S.-China trade situation, populism winning in European elections, and the unfolding U.S-Iran debacle, Geopolitics is more important than ever for investors.
2019-05-28
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All-Star Kevin Muir says the market is way ahead of the Fed in pricing in easing!

Kevin says the market is way ahead of the Fed in pricing in accommodative monetary policy and thinks bond longs betting on economic collapse will be disappointed, and explains why shorting an INDEX is the wrong way to play a bearish view on U.S./China trade negotiations
2019-05-24
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John Greenwood: We?re at mid-cycle, not late-cycle. Bull Market has plenty of room to run higher.

?Erik Townsend and Patrick?Ceresna?welcome?John Greenwood to?MacroVoices. Erik and?John?discuss?where we are in the business cycle, the mechanics of what really drives the cycle and what comes next.
2019-05-23
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ENERGY WEEK: Geopolitics, front month prices vs. steepening backwardation, and Brent-WTI spread.

ENERGY WEEK #3 features Anas Alhajji, Patricia Hemsworth, and Art Berman. Topics: Geopolitics/Iran, disparity of front month prices and forward curve backwardation, and WTI-Brent Spread.
2019-05-23
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All-Star Prof. Steve Keen on Richard Vague's new book, A Brief History of Doom

Today?s MacroVoices All-Star is Professor SteveKeen, who weighs in on Richard Vague?s new book, A Brief History of Doom. Steve says Vague has it exactly right, and his analysis of what caused 2008?s Great Financial Crisis jibes almost exactly with Steve?s own analysis of that event.
2019-05-21
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All-Star Juliette Declercq on Populism

Juliette Declercq believes the surprise outcome of the Australian elections is an important signal as the global populist movement calls for more socialism, yet Australia?s Labor Party was defeated in a surprise ?upset? election. Juliette examines the costs of socialism and concludes that deficit spending can continue indefinitely, until inflation re-emerges as a macro risk.
2019-05-20
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All-Star Brent Johnson: Much higher stock prices possible

oday?s MacroVoices All-Star is @SantiagoAuFund and he says once we get through this soft patch, MUCH higher stock prices are possible. He says it?s all about U.S. stocks becoming a safe-haven for foreigners as USD appreciation enhances foreign returns.
2019-05-17
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Simon White: U.S. Dollar in the Crosshairs

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Simon White to MacroVoices. Erik and Simon discuss where leading indicators are pressuring US dollar, outlook on US equities and bonds, perspective on the Fed?s cut to its IOER and more.
2019-05-16
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ENERGY WEEK: Geopolitics, Bull/Bear cases & Price Outlook. (with panelists Joe McMonigle, Chris Cook and Tracy Shuchart)

ENERGY WEEK is a new weekly podcast all about crude oil and energy markets for investors. Our host Erik Townsend discusses Geopolitics, Bull/Bear cases & Price Outlook with this week's panelists.
2019-05-16
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MacroVoices All-Star Julian Brigden: The Fed should cut rates NOW!

MI2 Partners founder Julian Brigden explains why the Fed is already late to cut interest rates, and the reason has nothing to do with a China-U.S. trade war.
2019-05-15
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MacroVoices All-Star Danielle DiMartino-Booth: Jay Powell is The Grinch who Stole Liquidity

On today's episode of MacroVoices All Stars, Danielle DiMartino Booth joins our host Erik Townsend to talk about why she thinks Jay Powell is "the Grinch that stole liquidity"
2019-05-14
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MacroVoices All Stars : with Luke Gromen

On today's episode of MacroVoices All Stars, Luke Gromen joins our host Erik Townsend to discuss the trade war between US and China
2019-05-13
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Charlie McElligott: The opportunity will be found selling puts. But not yet!

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome?Charlie McElligott to MacroVoices. Erik and?Charlie discuss?the impact of policy change on the yield curve, the drivers of volatility in rates, and futures driven equity unwind and more.
2019-05-09
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ENERGY WEEK: Crude oil glut or crisis & Crude Quality Matters. Panel: Berman/Alhajji/Hemsworth

The inaugural episode of MacroVoices ENERGY WEEK features panelists Art Berman, Anas Alhajji and Patricia Hemsworth. Topic 1: Glut or crisis on the horizon? Topic 2: Crude Quality Matters. This new weekly podcast is all about crude oil & energy markets.
2019-05-09
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Juliette Declercq: Questioning the Fed?s ability to service its inflation mandate

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome?Juliette Declercq?to MacroVoices. Erik and?Juliette?discuss?the current status of inflation, the FED?s failure to meet its inflation mandate, and what is ahead for policy path and inflation outlook.
2019-05-02
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MacroVoices Premium - HOT TOPIC: Louis-Vincent Gave Rebuts Kyle Bass? Investor Letter questioning Hong Kong?s relevance

MacroVoices HOT TOPICS are a new offering in conjunction with MacroVoices Premium. Hot Topics interviews are scheduled and produced in reacting to events that come up in markets, independent of our regular podcasts in which the guests are usually scheduled in advance. Today?s Hot Topic is fund manager Kyle Bass? recent investor letter questioning Hong Kong?s ongoing relevance in the global financial system. Louis-Vincent Gave runs Gavekal, a Hong Kong-based institutional advisor. In today?s Hot Topic interview, Louis offers an ?opposing editorial? view, strongly at odds with Kyle Bass? views on Hong Kong.
2019-05-01
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MacroVoices Premium - MacroVoices All Stars Episode 1

MacroVoices All-Stars Episode #1 featuring Dr.Pippa Malmgren, Art Berman, Prof. Steve Keen, Julian Brigden, Luke Gromen and Danielle DiMartino Booth.
2019-04-30
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Dr. Lacy Hunt: U.S. Economy will continue to decline for the balance of 2019

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Dr. Lacy Hunt?to MacroVoices. Erik and Dr.Hunt?discuss?overall outlook on the US and the global economy, synchronized global downturn and risks of a recession, how debt induced weakness is undermining growth rate, destabilization of the global monetary system, and perspectives on Modern Monetary Theory
2019-04-25
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Jeff Snider: Eurodollar System Overview

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jeff Snider?to MacroVoices. Erik and?Jeff?discuss?the history of Eurodollar, Eurodollar as global reserve currency, and how the global economy and the global financial system depend on the Eurodollar system. They also discuss the breakdown of Eurodollar system, the Great Global Monetary Crisis and the effect the Eurodollar squeeze has on the global system.
2019-04-18
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Prof. Steve Keen: Dollar reserve currency status?blessing or curse?

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome?Prof. Steve Keen?to MacroVoices. Erik and?Steve?discuss?possible benefits to US if the dollar loses its reserve currency status, its impacts on international trades and deindustrialization of US, and possible fiscal crisis and the increase of US Treasury Yields. They also touch on consequences of decrease in demand for US dollar, runaway inflation and runaway trade deficit, risks and opportunities of MMT.
2019-04-11
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Neil Howe: Super-bullish the U.S.A. in the 2030s. But between now and then?

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Neil Howe to MacroVoices. Erik and Neil discuss how the Fourth Turning is unfolding, what is in store for the second half of the fourth turning and how the cycle climax?s at the end. The touch on employment, late-cycle dynamics, trends in real GDP and what demographic trends suggest for the long-term future.
2019-04-04
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Eric Peters: The biggest risk is the Central Banks? inability to spur Growth & Inflation

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Eric Peters back to MacroVoices. Erik and Eric discuss equity markets, volatility, treasury bonds and the biggest risks in the markets today. During the post game, Juliette Declercq joins the conversation to discuss her Financial Repression Theme.
2019-03-28
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David Rosenberg: stocks, yields headed lower

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome David Rosenberg to MacroVoices. Erik and Dave discuss the FOMC policy shift, market topping formation and ask if we are headed for an earnings recession. They further discuss treasury bonds and what is in store for the corporate bond markets. They leave things off by discussing modern monetary theory, helicopter money and Ben Bernanke?s playbook from 2002.
2019-03-21
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Art Berman: The world is still over-supplied with oil

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Art Berman back to MacroVoices. Erik and Art ask the question was the oil price collapse more than just a correction? The look at world production surplus for 2019-2020, U.S. oil production and ask if OPEC matters anymore. The further look at trends in world liquid production, perspectives on the Brent and WTI curves and ask why is Brent trading at a premium to WTI.
2019-03-14
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Barry Ritholtz: Quantitative tightening is not a good reason to be bearish

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Barry Ritholtz to MacroVoices. Erik and Barry start by defining bull and bear markets and discuss the bullish case for equities. They proceed to discuss the U.S Dollar, interest rate trends, junk bonds and the China credit risks. They then take a deep dive into populism, the growing trends in socialism, crony capitalism and what is wrong with MMT. Special post game guest Charlie McElligott.
2019-03-07
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Dr. Pippa Malmgren: Donald Trump never expected to win. He ran for President to pursue an ulterior motive.

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome back Pippa Malmgren to MacroVoices. Erik and Pippa discuss the U.S./China trade war, the Korean peninsula and the China South Sea. They move on to discuss the future of Donald Trump, China/Russia relations and the future of hypersonic warfare. They wrap up talking about socialism, populism, surveillance capitalism and the outlook for the equity markets.
2019-03-01
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Luke Gromen: The ?Dollar End Game? has already begun!

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome back Luke Gromen to MacroVoices. Erik and Luke discuss the underlying motives & timing of the dollar and the particulars of oil, Petrodollar, and global Treasury Holdings. They elaborate on the drivers behind the strong dollar and timing of the dollar endgame. We welcome Brent Johnson to the post game show to discuss the different alternatives to how the dollar end game scenarios play out.
2019-02-22
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Francesco Filia: Stock market CRASH entirely possible

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome back Francesco Filia to MacroVoices. Erik and Francesco discuss bear markets, complex dynamic systems, and the phase transitions and the twin bubbles. The continue discussing tipping points, crash hallmarks and butterflies. They ask why are the risks now and will treasury bonds going to be the benefactor? The end asking how to play the short side of the markets?
2019-02-15
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Alex Gurevich: Interest rate momentum is an excellent predictor of equity market performance

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome back Alex Gurevich to MacroVoices. Erik and Alex discuss the bigger picture outlook on the business cycle, the yield curve, Treasury bonds and the dollar. They further discuss the current quantitative tightening cycle and when the Fed will again begin easing. They then go around the world discussing the global economies in Australia, Canada, China Japan and Europe. The end with a discussion on where is gold heading in the bigger picture and interest rates momentum as a predictor of equity markets.
2019-02-07
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Grant Williams: The Trouble in Europe Has Only Just Begun

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Grant Williams back to MacroVoices. Erik asks Grant if we in a cyclical bear market and where he feels treasury bond yields are headed next. They discuss tensions between China and Taiwan, the rise of global populism and the future of France and Europe. Grant shares his update on how things are developing on Australian Real Estate and the risks of a recession. They end with touching on gold and the U.S. dollar.
2019-02-01
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Russell Napier: PBOC dictating global inflation

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Russell Napier back to MacroVoices. Erik and Patrick discuss treasury bonds, China and the tightening of Chinese monetary policy. They ask which central bank is dictating global inflation, the fed monetary policy and ask if the Fed is out of bullets? They end with an outlook for developed stock markets and ask if the decade long bull market over?
2019-01-24
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Charlie McElligott: Fear the Steepener

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Charlie McElligott back to MacroVoices. Erik and Charlie discuss the china credit impulse and PBoC liquidity operations. The discuss if this is a bear market rally or continuation of bull market and fading the Fed?s economic optimism. They update CTA positioning across asset classes and positioning in risk parity funds. They finally end with a conversation on the yield curve steepener.
2019-01-16
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