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Real Vision: Finance, Business & The Global Economy

Real Vision: Finance, Business & The Global Economy

Understand the complex world of finance, business and the global economy with real in-depth analysis from real experts. We unlock access to the leading financial minds in the world to provide unbiased, in-depth analysis from real experts. The Real Vision podcast features our flagship series The Interview - the premier business and finance interview series in the world; And, the Daily Briefing which provides market analysis every weekday after US markets close and before Asian markets open. Subscribe today to get both of these shows totally free.Brought to you from Real Vision.

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Buy the Rumor, Sell the News

DB-Feb24,2021: Has speculative mania reached a fever pitch? Will rising Treasury yields drag high-flying growth stocks back to the ground? Real Vision editor Jack Farley welcomes Jared Dillian, Bloomberg Opinion columnist and editor of The Daily Dirtnap, to the Daily Briefing to explore these questions and explain how he is navigating these frothy, choppy markets. Dillian shares his thoughts on everything from his bullishness on commercial real estate and energy stocks to his concerns about liquidity mismatches in Cathie Wood?s ARK ETFs. Dillian explains to Farley why he is long puts on "growthy" tech names like Tesla and Facebook and notes why he remains very constructive on gold and precious metals. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
2021-02-25
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Driving Transaction Costs Down to Zero ( w/ Jeremy Allaire & Raoul Pal)

Crypto Wednesday: Circle co-founder, chairman, and CEO Jeremy Allaire joins Raoul Pal, Real Vision CEO, to discuss stable coins, regulation, and the problems that Circle is working to solve. Allaire explains that Circle was created to improve the way traditional money, or fiat, was transacted. This vision led the company to helping build out USDC, a fully backed stable coin. Allaire believes that once there is a fiat digital currency model on public networks, this would drive the cost of transacting value close to zero. He also states that regulation of the crypto space implies acceptance from governments and institutions and that this is a good sign for crypto. Filmed on January 14, 2021. Key Learnings: Transacting in the traditional banking system is expensive and slow compared to the new crypto payment and settlement rails. Fiat digital currencies can assist in dramatically reducing the cost of value transactions and can grow the utility of crypto networks dramatically. Consequently, a secure fiat digital currency can encourage governments and institutions adopt crypto networks. Recorded on Jan 14, 2021 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
2021-02-24
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NASDAQ Goes Haywire as Powell Doubles Down

DB-Feb23,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Tommy Thornton of Hedge Fund Telemetry back to the Daily Briefing to make sense of how a jittery stock market copes with rising yields. Thornton analyzes this morning?s big sell-off in the NASDAQ with "growthy" names plunging double digits, and he explores whether technology could be poised for underperformance in the coming months. Thornton explains why he is bullish on the energy sector, noting that it is one of the few sectors with a reasonable short interest. Bennington and Thornton then review Fed Chair Powell?s testimony at the Senate Banking Committee, which perhaps was meant to assuage the markets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
2021-02-24
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Brazilian Markets Crash and Energy Shines as Yields Break Higher

DB-Feb22,2021. Real Vision editor Jack Farley and managing editor Ed Harrison break down how rising yields are impacting risk assets such as growth equities and high-yield bonds. The pair review today?s price action, looking at everything from strength in oil and U.K. travel stocks to the significant sell-off in U.S. tech. Ed gives a primer on how rising yields dilute the value of assets with high duration and tells Jack why vaccination efforts in Europe are lagging behind the rest of the world. Later, Jack is joined by Weston Nakamura, former derivatives trader and head of the Real Vision Exchange, to analyze today?s price action in the Brazilian Real and Brazilian equities, which both plummeted as President Bolsonaro removed the CEO of Brazilian oil giant Petrobras. Ed and Jack close by looking at European fiscal as well as taking a sneak peek of tomorrow?s interview with John Hussman and Milton Berg. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
2021-02-23
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Challenging the Mainstream COVID-19 Lockdown Narrative (w/Mike Green, Nick Hudson & Russel Lamberti)

The Interview, Recorded on January 4, 2021In the fight against COVID-19, lockdowns have become a major policy tool used by governments around the world with a stated goal of limiting the spread of the virus and keeping hospitals from running out of capacity. Nick Hudson, CEO of Sana Partners, and Russell Lamberti, Founder of ETM Macro Advisors, are part of Pandemics Data and Analytics, or PANDA, a collective of leading scientists, actuaries, economists, data scientists, statisticians, medical professionals, lawyers, engineers and businesspeople working to challenge the mainstream narrative around lockdowns using scientific evidence that they argue shows that 1) lockdowns are not effective at their stated goals and 2) the secondary costs of lockdowns far outweigh the potential benefits. In this interview with Mike Green of Logica Capital Advisors, Hudson and Lamberti introduce viewers to their organization and make the case that the COVID-19 response does not square with any of the pre-COVID pandemic response protocols that were updated in late 2019, that the effects of lockdowns on children and other marginalized groups have not been properly considered, and that lockdowns could set a dangerous political precedent. As well, Green plays the role of devil's advocate and challenges both guests on the real problems of measurable excess mortality and dwindling hospital capacity that cannot be denied. More information about PANDA, their members, and methodologies can be found at https://pandata.org. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
2021-02-21
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"Is Everything a Bubble?" Wrap-Up - Highlights and Takeaways for Today's Markets

Tune in for this special edition of the Daily Briefing to hear from editor Max Wiethe, managing editor Ed Harrison, and Real Vision CEO and co-founder Raoul Pal . Together, they discuss their thoughts on the interviews from Real Vision?s campaign, ?Is Everything a Bubble?? and explore how these various interviews all connect to what?s occurring in the markets right now. They will also answer questions from the audience about the campaign and Real Vision itself. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
2021-02-20
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Junk Yields Rising, Bitcoin Sniffing Out Yield Curve Control, and GameStop's Hearings

DB-Feb18,2021: Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison welcomes Tyler Neville of Blockworks back to the Daily Briefing to share his thoughts on everything from implied volatility in the credit markets to the ongoing congressional hearings on GameStop?s remarkable rise and fall. Reporting from Austin, Texas, Neville shares his experience amid the ongoing arctic frost that is depriving so many Texans of electricity, heat, and running water as well as disrupting U.S. oil production by over 40%. Neville then shares with Harrison his analysis on lumber and homebuilding stocks and explores whether this crisis will cause secular inflation. Harrison and Neville then turn their gaze to the rising yields of U.S. Treasurys, which Neville thinks could be a wrecking ball for all risk assets. However, Neville argues that the Federal Reserve will enact yield curve control, and it is this possibility which Bitcoin and crypto investors have already ?sniffed out.? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
2021-02-19
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VIX Dislocations, Hendry's Take on TLT, and Buffett's Sale of $GOLD

DB-Feb18,2021. Real Vision editors Jack Farley and Max Wiethe start the Daily Briefing by breaking down the latest stories, ranging from rolling blackouts in Texas to the congressional hearing surrounding GameStop to Berkshire Hathaway?s latest maneuvers. Then, Jack welcomes Eclectica Asset Management founder and former-CIO Hugh Hendry, who tells him about the interplay between real yields, gold, and silver as well as giving Real Vision a sneak peek of his short film, ?An Intense Psychotic Cacophony.? Lastly, Jack speaks to Real Vision's Weston Nakamura about a dislocation Weston has noticed in the VIX futures market. For the latest edition of ?Inside the Hive Mind,? click here: http://rvtv.io/HiveReportFeb. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
2021-02-18
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Tony Greer: "Commodity Inflation Is Happening Before Our Eyes"

DB-Feb17,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Tony Greer of TG Macro back to the Daily Briefing to provide analysis on the billowy price action in commodities. Greer looks at the market dynamics behind the rolling blackouts in Texas and discusses the oil curve steepening further into backwardation, allowing speculators to generate greater roll yield. Looking at similar phenomena in aluminum and copper, as well as the new relative highs in the VanEck Oil Services ETF ($OIH) and the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund ($XLE), Greer surmises that we could be seeing the dawn of a new bull market in commodities, which may lead to a commodity supercycle. Bennington asks Greer about his latest longs, which include Freeport-McMoran ($FCX) and several homebuilding stocks. Greer explains why he thinks put options offer a low risk/reward even with the VIX barely above 20. In sum, Greer thinks the liquidity faucets from the Federal Reserve will continue to buoy all assets higher, so investors should own assets?not cash. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
2021-02-17
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The Real Mechanics of Monetary Policy & Financial Plumbing (w/ Caitlin Long and Dr. Manmohan Singh)

The Interview, Recorded on December 7, 2020: If you are one of the few who have studied the mechanics of monetary policy and the plumbing of the financial system, most of what you learned may be out of date?that is, if you haven?t done so in the last five years. In this interview with Caitlin Long, CEO and founder of Avanti Financial Group, Dr. Manmohan Singh of the IMF explains the massive changes that have come about in the past decade and tries to dispel some of the preconceived notions many have about this complex system. In addition to this focus on the true mechanics of the current system, they also discuss the difficulty of trying to make sense of such an opaque and interconnected global system where laws and data reporting are not uniform from country to country. Moreover, Long and Singh zoom in on the tsunami of change that could be brought about by the growth of digital assets both inside and outside of the traditional financial system, and they highlight the intense focus on these developments by the private banking sector and bodies like the IMF. . Viewers can find more of Dr. Singh's work here: https://www.risk.net/collateral-markets-and-financial-plumbing-3rd-edition and https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Publications-By-Author?author=Manmohan++Singh&name=Manmohan%20%20Singh Key Learnings: The plumbing of the financial system continuously evolves as institutions, regulations, and technology change. Coming from entirely different perspectives, Long and Singh both stress the level of attention digital assets are receiving from the highest levels of global finance and how important they will be to the future development of the financial system. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
2021-02-13
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Bumble's IPO, The Yield Curve Migration, and a "Bubble" in Passive Investing?

Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison is joined by senior editor Ash Bennington and editor Jack Farley to break down recent price action and inspect current market conditions. They analyze the remarkable soaring of Bumble?s stock price after its initial public offering (IPO) with Ash and Ed exploring whether the ongoing market ebullience is evocative of 1999. Ed and Jack then discuss how rising yields for U.S. Treasurys affect banks earnings, the price of earnings, and investor behavior in the credit markets. After the three of them briefly explain how the rise of passive investing is impacting market flows, Ash shares his thoughts on the first publicly traded Bitcoin ETF in North America. Ash, Ed, and Jack relate these topics to recent ?Is Everything a Bubble?? interviews with Howard Marks, Joel Greenblatt, Lyn Alden, and Russell Napier, and they look forward to next week?s interviews with Lacy Hunt, Tom Steyer, Felix Zulauf, and Mark Yusko. If you are not a member and you want access to these interviews, click here: https://www.realvision.com/l/is-everything-a-bubble. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
2021-02-13
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Waiting for Inflation, SPACmania, and Dislocations in the Cannabis Bull Market

DB:Feb 10,2021: Real Vision editors Max Wiethe and Jack Farley delve into what Fed Chair Powell?s remarks indicate about the future of monetary policy and the economy. Max catalogs the rally in cannabis equities and notes that the bulk of the euphoria seems to be located in Canadian pot stocks, which may not be as favorable as their U.S. counterparts. After noting the tremendous volatility in MicroStrategy Incorporated ($MSTR), Jack and Max interpret what today?s reading for the Consumer Price Index, which fell slightly below expectations, means for reflation trades such as banks and energy. They close by giving a sneak peek of upcoming interviews with Julian Brigden, Howard Marks, Joel Greenblatt, and Lyn Alden as part of the ?Is Everything a Bubble?? series. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
2021-02-11
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The Triggers for a Bond Bubble Pop Are Now in Motion

DB:Feb 9, 2021. Peter Boockvar, CIO of Bleakley Advisory Group, joins Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington to discuss the oil market rally, signals of incoming inflation and the central bank response to it, and the drop in junk bond yields. Boockvar observes how oil is the last of the major commodities to join the rally as demand starts to catch up and the supply is demonstrating greater discipline, bringing markets into a full commodity rally. Boockvar then zooms out and breaks down the inflationary signals he?s witnessing and expresses his concern about whether an increase in consumer services will contribute to or relieve inflationary pressure. With junk bond yields dropping, Boockvar also explains how this may be due to more investors being pushed out onto the risk spectrum as investment-grade bonds are being perceived to have a Fed backstop. He points out the ever-growing bubble in bond markets and speculates that now is the first time in years where the true triggers for that bubble popping are in motion. He shares what retail investors should be watching out for, how QE has batted away the worst effects of bear markets, what drives the capital flight into the U.S., why the ECB's and BOJ's policies have in reality been more restrictive, and whether the Fed will ultimately have to implement yield curve control. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
2021-02-10
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Tesla's Bitcoin Wager, Rising Yields, and Ed's Take on the Banks

DB-Feb7, 2021. Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison and editor Jack Farley discuss Tesla?s decision to buy $1.5 billion worth of Bitcoin as a reserve asset on its balance sheet. They then analyze the how rising yields on the 10-year and 30-year Treasurys will impact growth stocks as well as bank net interest margins. Using bank profitability as a jumping off point, Jack notes that the S&P 500 Financials Sector SPDR ($XLF) is at all-time highs, and Ed analyzes why this could be the case, sharing his outlook on the future of the U.S. banking industry. Lastly, Jack and Ed give a sneak peek of the interviews coming up for the ?Is Everything a Bubble?? campaign with Howard Marks, Joel Greenblatt, Mark Cuban, Felix Zulauf, Lyn Alden, Lacy Hunt, Tom Steyer, Mark Yusko, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Steve Clapham, and many other investors. To share your thoughts about ?Is Everything a Bubble?? on the Real Vision exchange, click here: http://rvtv.io/3ju1T6q. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
2021-02-09
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Marc Cohodes: "The Stock Market is Not A Game"

The Interview, recorded on February 1, 2021 .In this interview with Jason Buck of The Mutiny Fund, famed short-seller Marc Cohodes of Alder Lane Farm pulls no punches as he diagnoses the true culprits behind the exponential volatility in stocks such as GameStop: extreme leverage and the hedge funds who use it in order to juice returns. Cohodes argues that hedge funds like Point72 and Melvin Capital are creating significant systemic risk for all market participants, most notably themselves, and he congratulates the retail trades on r/WallStreetBets but warns them that, generally, buying a stock merely because it has high short interest is a very bad idea. He closes by sharing with Buck his personal journey during the 2008 Great Financial Crisis. Key learnings: The stock market is not a game ? it is a serious thing for serious people. The reckless use of leverage ought to be constrained by regulators, and all investors, institutional as well as retail, should be prepared to lose if they are wrong. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
2021-02-07
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Japanese Stocks: The Ultimate Undervalued Investment Opportunity (w/ Andrew McDermott & David Salem)

The Interview: Recorded on December 14, 2020. David Salem, managing partner of Windhorse Capital Management, welcomes Andrew McDermott, president of Mission Value Partners, an investment firm that invests almost exclusively in Japanese equities. McDermott argues that Japan is a hidden repository of balance sheet strength, and he and Salem discuss why Japan's business leaders seem not to exhibit the same bad habits that have ruined so many previously-great American companies, such as Intel and GE. McDermott breaks down his analysis of specific companies such as Hitachi, Sazaby, and Daiichikosho Co., and then he tells Salem about the time Warren Buffett called him to seek out his knowledge and advice on investing in Japan. McDermott and Salem also reflect on macroeconomic factors such as demographics and Japan's government debt burden. Key Learnings: Japanese equities are one of the least-loved and arguably most misunderstood asset classes in the world. But they offer opportunity to the thoughtful investor, as the management of Japanese companies are more prudent and sensible with their allocation of capital. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
2021-02-06
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Raoul Pal on Bubbles, Short Squeezes, and Systemic Market Risk.

Raoul Pal, Real Vision CEO and co-founder, joins senior editor Ash Bennington to share how his market framework is evolving. First, Raoul and Ash provide a sneak-peek into Real Vision?s upcoming campaign, ?Is Everything a Bubble??, where Real Vision will be featuring high-profile investors such as Lacy Hunt, Felix Zulauf, Mark Cuban, Lyn Alden, Howard Marks, and Joel Greenblatt. Raoul describes the current market environment, stating that investors are record long equities, dealers are record long gamma, and the market, as a whole, is record short Treasury bonds. Raoul and Ash then discuss the outperformance of Ethereum and ?altcoins? relative to Bitcoin. Lastly, Raoul shares his views on the speculative fervor in the equity market and compares the short squeeze in GameStop Corp ($GME) to the historic squeeze of German automaker Volkswagen. For the February edition of ?Inside the Hive Mind? by Weston Nakamura and the Real Vision Exchange, click here: https://exchange.realvision.com/post/inside-the-hive-mind-of-the-real-vision-exchange-feb-2021-issue-02-601d8ab41ab3070a37dcf1e3. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
2021-02-06
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Legal Fraud vs. Intellectual Fraud: The Growing Challenges Activist Short Sellers Face

Carson Block, CIO of Muddy Waters Capital LLC, joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss the different forms that financial fraud can take in the corporate world, what happened with GameStop last week, and how changing market structure makes activist short selling increasingly more difficult. Block distinguishes between two types of fraud that corporations can commit?legal fraud and intellectual fraud?and explains how insidious and corrosive the latter type is for companies. Harrison and Block then consider why these companies committing intellectual fraud are not being held accountable and how that leads to decaying faith in public institutions. Block also provides his perspective on the short squeeze in GameStop from last week, exploring how initially a smart retail trade morphed into a different sort of animal. He touches on the financial plumbing occurring behind the scenes and whether it truly is efficient or not, and he shares how he sizes positions for shorts, the growing challenges activist short-sellers face, and his experience while investigating American Tower in 2013. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
2021-02-05
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The Mayor of Miami on Blockchain and Ben Hunt on COVID-19, the Fed, and How "Not To Be The Sucker At The Table"

In the first segment, Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal speaks to the mayor of Miami, Francis X. Suarez, about his plans to attract talent, jobs, capital, and ?anchor tenants? to Miami as well as his embrace of blockchain technology. Mayor Suarez can be found on Twitter at @FrancisSuarez. In the main segment, senior editor Ash Bennington speaks to Ben Hunt, author of Epsilon Theory, about the ways in which the United States can better protect itself from the scourge of COVID-19. Hunt acknowledges that the variants of the virus might impair economic growth yet contends that asset markets might continue to prove resilient. Lastly, Hunt shares with Bennington his view on the run-up in SPACs as well as ?meme stocks? such as GameStop ($GME). Bennington concludes by giving a sneak peek of tomorrow?s event, ?Bitcoin in the Real World.? Join Real Vision and BlockFi on February 4 for a free one-day online event. RSVP at realvision.com/blockfi. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
2021-02-04
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"Money Incineration" in Stonks, "Champagne and Caviar" for the S&P 500

Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Tony Greer of TG Macro to give an overview of GameStop as $GME and other retail favorites such as $AMC and $BBBY continue to unwind. Tony and Ash discuss the market mechanics behind margin requirements and liquidity concerns with Tony pulling no punches as he discusses key actors such as Dave Portnoy. Tony then proceeds to provide a strategic update on his natural resources trade as crude oil hits a new high and its futures curve enters backwardation. Lastly, Tony shares with Ash his outlook on the FAANG stocks, cannabis, and the velocity of money. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
2021-02-03
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Is Silver "Next"? Plus an Update on Short Interest and Options Flow in GameStop

DB-Feb1,2021: Real Vision?s Haley Draznin explores how the Reddit mania is spreading from Gamestop to the precious metals market like silver and even SPACs. In the main segment, Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison conducts a data-filled deep dive of the ongoing pressures in GameStop Corp ($GME), looking at factors such as the declining short interest to renewed activity in far out-of-the-money call options. Ed rejects the theory that silver will be the next hotspot of speculative activity and notes that natural gas was actually up more than silver today. Lastly, Ed and Jack discuss potential endgame scenarios for the speculative mania in distressed equities like GameStop, and Ed shares an update on COVID-19 variants. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
2021-02-02
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Demographics II: Tailwinds and Tenterhooks (w/ Amlan Roy & Raoul Pal)

RealVision Live Replay, Recorded on September 14, 2020.Global macro investing is one of the most complex styles of allocating capital, as the data sets one has at their fingertips is just so large: non-farm payrolls, currency volatility, even high-frequency foot traffic. In this interview, Amlan Roy, head of global macro research at State Street Global Advisors, speaks to Real Vision CEO about how incorporating demographics within one's macro framework can help find the signal in the noise and give investors an edge. Roy discusses how demographic patterns map onto common macro data, such as growth rates, discount rates, savings rates, as well as interest rates, the ultimate macro statistic. This is the second installment in Raoul's multi-part exploration into how demographics affects global economics and finance.. For Raoul's first interview with chief investment officer Fredrik Nerbrand, click here: https://www.realvision.com/shows/the-big-picture/videos/demographics-i-pensions-in-crisis. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
2021-02-01
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Investment Ideas for a Hard Winter in the Real Economy (w/ Ed Harrison and Gary Shilling)

The Interview: Recorded on Dec 4 , 2020: With cases spiking and economic data surrounding the recovery slowing or outright rolling over in many cases, it appears as though a hard winter is in store for the global economy. Gary Shilling, president of A. Gary Shilling & Co., is well known for having forecasted these types of downturns in the past and, along with Real Vision's Ed Harrison, discusses why he thinks we are in store for another economic downturn this winter. Shilling highlights real economic data like slowing job gains, increased COVID-19 deaths, and the potential for renewed economic shutdowns, but he cautions that the strange correlation, where bad news equals more stimulus and thus is bullish for equities, can draw out irrationality longer than investors might expect ? even if stimulus fails to fully replace economic losses in the long-term. Shilling and Harrison also discuss his investment ideas that arise from this forecast: cautiously short equities, short dollar, and long treasuries. Key Learnings: The real economy and market are once again moving in the opposite direction. Shilling argues that this disconnect will close and that the long bond may be the best way to play to it. He also sees the stimulus feedback loop as putting more downward pressure on the dollar. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
2021-01-31
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The Future of SaaS Investing, Machine Learning, & Data Privacy (w/ Raoul Pal & Gordon Ritter)

The Interview. Recorded on Nov5,2020 : Cloud investor Gordon Ritter, founder of Emergence Capital, one of the first venture capital firms to invest exclusively in software-as-a-service, or SaaS, manages portfolio companies that have a market cap of $400B+ and 13 IPOs or exits greater than $500 million, including high-profile exits like Zoom and Salesforce. He joins Real Vision founder and CEO, Raoul Pal, for a conversation about the evolution of the software sector, how fast the SaaS investing market is today, the future of machine learning, the challenges ahead in data privacy, and the digitization of education. Filmed November 5, 2020. Key Learnings: The premise of SaaS is that a piece of software is hosted on a cloud infrastructure (operated through a web browser), and businesses pay a monthly fee to get access to this software. Investors in SaaS companies have reaped huge benefits, and the widespread adoption of SaaS platforms across business and personal applications doesn't appear to be slowing down. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
2021-01-30
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The GameStop Gamma Wall Breaks Down as Virus Variants Ring Alarm Bells (w/ Real Vision Editorial)

DB-Jan29,2021: In the intro, Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington speaks to Lily Francus, derivatives trader and PhD candidate in Bioinformatics at the University of California San Diego, about the unique market mechanics that have characterized the run in GameStop Corp ($GME). In the main segment, Ash welcomes managing editor Ed Harrison and editor Jack Farley to debate whether the Robinhood ban on trading is unfair and if it reveals unseen holes in the functioning of capital markets. Jack provides data on options flow in $GME, and the three explore whether the wall of gamma will break down or get even higher, agreeing that Monday will be a turning point as this is when $GME calls with higher strike prices could get written (and can be bought by retail traders). Ash and Ed discuss how susceptible the various COVID-19 variants are to the vaccines and how their ominous spread will impact the reflation trade. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
2021-01-30
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Robinhood on Shaky Ground and Potential Market Destabilization to Come( w/ Dave Floyd )

DB-Jan28,2021: Dave Floyd, founder of Aspen Trading, joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison to talk about the newest developments in the GameStop story and the market implications of elevated activity in options trading. Floyd expresses his concern over the restricted buying over GameStop and other equities experiencing similar price action that occurred today, stating that it?s bizarre and ludicrous to mandate how traders allocate their capital, which cuts to the core of ongoing social issues. However, he explains that the anger arising from these circumstances is misdirected as the market environment and price discovery has continuously been muddled by regulations and monetary policy. Harrison and Floyd move on to discuss the equity market at large, and he explains that the record number of call options being purchased and puts being sold at open can introduce a destabilizing effect on markets. In light of this high implied volatility, he then expounds on how this impacts futures, the dollar, and time horizons, and what trades he has his eye on now. Jack Farley breaks down the saga of GameStop Corp ($GME) and how forced buying is turning into forced selling. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
2021-01-29
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The Robinhood Revolt as an Expression of the Fourth Turning (w/ Ed Harrison & Max Weithe)

DB-Jan27,2021: Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison sits down with Max Wiethe to discuss how Ed is making sense of the retail assault on short-sellers as an expression of the unfolding of The Fourth Turning. Harrison argues that intergenerational conflict has been brewing outside of the market; however, it now has found its way to Wall Street in the form of Robinhood traders looking to take out the old guard of finance and make a killing in the process. Real Vision?s Peter Cooper kicks it off by examining the various short squeezes occurring across U.S. and European equity markets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
2021-01-28
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Bitcoin & The Future of Regulation (w/ Caitlin Long & Raoul Pal)

Crypto Wednesday: Recorded on November 30, 2020. Caitlin Long, CEO & Founder of Avanti Financial Group, joins Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal to discuss Bitcoin, Wyoming at the forefront of regulations, and the problems of custody for crypto assets. Long explains the benefits Bitcoin has over many traditional asset classes as well as the concerns brought about by unclear regulations. She sheds light on how and why Wyoming aims to provide the most clear crypto regulatory environment in the US, and she also touches on Avanti, the crypto bank and custody company she founded. Key Learnings: The importance of having clear regulations for crypto assets and their custody can not be understated. As innovative states such as Wyoming remove uncertainty by providing clear regulations, more investors will be able to get exposure to the asset class with confidence. Regulations are becoming more clear, but not all states stand on equal footing, and competitive regulatory environments are emerging within the US. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
2021-01-27
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"GameStonk" Lunacy: Is Speculative Fervor Reaching Epic Proportions?( w/ Tommy Thornton & Ash B)

DB-Jan26,2021: Senior editor Ash Bennington hosts Tommy Thornton of Hedge Fund Telemetry to break down a day of absurd price action as GameStop skyrocketed 90% today and zoomed an additional 46% during afterhours trading. Tommy and Ash reflect on the shrewd yet reckless speculations of the r/wallstreetbets traders, who pushed hedge funds that were short GameStop like Melvin Capital to the brink, with Tommy noting that this intentional targeting of shorts triggered a record day of long/short degrossing. Turning to technical indicators, Tommy comments on the buying exhaustion he is seeing via DeMARK indicators, saying ?this is a bubble that I think could pop at any moment.? He recommends ?ringing the register? on successful trades and turning to cash. Tommy closes by giving Ash a long idea: Zynga Inc ($ZNGA). In the intro, Real Vision?s Haley Draznin makes sense of the market as company earnings reports take center stage and wild swings resume on heavily shorted stocks. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
2021-01-27
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Reflation Misgivings and The GameStop Gamma Squeeze ( w/ Ed Harrison & Jack Farlay )

DB-Jan25,2021: Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison and editor Jack Farley break down the logic-defying price action in highly speculative stocks like Blackberry, AMC Entertainment Holdings, and, most notably, GameStop Corp, which surged over 160% to $159 before plummeting yet still being up on the day. Ed and Jack break down the ?short squeezes? and ?gamma squeezes? that are inflating those names, particularly GameStop, with Ed interpreting his Real Vision Live with Jim Bianco today and Jack sourcing info from volatility trader Kris Sidial. Lastly, Ed shares his thinking on how the different COVID-19 variants will impact re-opening as well as the reflation trade, which he thinks may have overstepped its bounds. In the intro, Real Vision?s Haley Draznin describes what happened with GameStop?s volatile trading today. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
2021-01-26
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The Insolvency Phase: Why the Market is Mispricing Insolvency Risk( w/ Matt Rowe and Wiethe)

Real Vision Live Replay, Recorded on 24 Sep 2020: Here at Real Vision it?s clear that viewers are keenly focused on Raoul?s unfolding thesis and the potential that the market is teetering between hope and insolvency, but so are many of our contributors. Matt Rowe of Headwaters Volatility Solutions was inspired by Raoul?s recent call for an insolvency phase and in this special edition of Real Vision Live will be putting his corporate credit hat back on to provide a deeper dive into how both credit and equity markets are totally mispricing the insolvency risks looming large post-COVID. Please note that Matt has an extensive background in corporate credit and before founding Headwaters Volatility Solutions was the managing partner of a fund focused on convertible bond and capital structure arbitrage. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
2021-01-25
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USD's Reserve Status, the Eurodollar System, and International Trade ( w/ Lyn Alden & Hugh Hendry )

The Interview, Recorded on December 1, 2020.: Hugh Hendry, founder and former CIO of Eclectica Asset Management, welcomes Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy for a wide-ranging discussion on international trade and the Eurodollar system. Hendry mounts a nuanced defense of the dollar's role as the global reserve asset, whereas Alden sees a slow but steady de-dollarization happening around the world, which she expects will continue. Hendry and Alden discuss whether China's role in international trade is "mercantilist," and whether its stagnant reserves of U.S. Treasurys is a true macroeconomic bellwether. Lastly, Hendry and Alden look forward to identify potential solutions to these problems, such as digital currencies (Alden's solution) and ultra-negative rates (Hendry's solution). Hugh Hendry's YouTube channel can be accessed here: https://www.youtube.com/c/HughHendryOfficial/videos. Key learnings: Alden and Hendry agree that structural forces have prevented the dollar from weakening to the levels implied by its persistent trade deficit. But while Alden thinks the Eurodollar system will expand beyond the control of the U.S., Hendry argues that American commercial banks will continue to control the supply of dollars in reality, and that the U.S. will remain the global monetary hegemon. Hendry has also provided a transcript he has personally edited to clarify some of his points in this interview: https://rvtv.io/3gysJZT Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
2021-01-24
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Teddy Vallee on the Dollar, Hard Assets, and the Real Rate Rotation (w/ Jack Farley)

Teddy Vallee, founder and CIO of Pervalle Global, joins Real Vision's Jack Farley to share his strategic outlook for assets such as the U.S. dollar, technology and energy stocks, gold, and bitcoin. Vallee explains why he believes that real rates for U.S. Treasury bonds will increase, and he describes why this view makes him believe there could be a capital exodus from technology into energy equities, as well as making bitcoin and gold less attractive to hold for the short-term, although he remains bullish on these two assets over the long-term. Filmed on November 24, 2020. Key learnings: Real rates on U.S. Treasuries will likely rise. Long-term the U.S. dollar will encounter problems, but Vallee spots short-term tactical opportunity as Treasury issuance will create liquidity negative conditions over the next two-to-three months. Vallee is very positive on energy, Latin America, EM debt, as well as commodities relative to U.S. tech and bonds. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
2021-01-23
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COVID-19 Spiraling Out of Control, Whipsawing Crypto, and the Coiled Snake of Macro

DB-Jan22,2021: Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal joins senior editor Ash Bennington to share his latest thoughts on COVID-19, market froth, and cryptocurrency. Using models from his latest Real Vision Pro report, ?Wile E. Coyote,? Raoul plots several dire situations for COVID-19 deaths. Raoul then talks about why he may smell ?fire in the room? in the equity market, looking at indicators such as call option volume, activity in the pink sheet stocks, and the sky-high use of margin. Raoul and Ash then discuss the recent pullback in Bitcoin, and Raoul tells Ash what he thinks of alt coins and the risk/reward they offer to investors. Raoul reflects on the recent flatness in bond yields and the dollar, and he explores whether macro investors are turning toward crypto markets because that?s where the action is happening. In the intro, editor Jack Farley breaks down today?s economic data release for the PMIs from Germany, France, and the U.S. as well as IBM?s earnings disappointment. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
2021-01-23
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The Fed's Quandary: Speculative Fervor Around Inflation Expectations ( w/ Michael Lebowitz & Ed Harrison)

DB-Jan21,2021: Michael Lebowitz, partner at Real Investment Advice, joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss where inflation is headed and whether the market?s bet on the Fed getting it right this time has merit. Lebowitz discusses the nature of market price action for the past several months as risk assets have caught on fire and sector rotation has been occurring with incredible speed. With the growth of M1 and the velocity of money moving in opposite directions, Harrison and Lebowitz explore how the Fed might have to rethink their quantitative easing (QE) operations in order to achieve their goals of generating inflation. In light of this context, Lebowitz discusses his investment approach in this market environment. In the intro, Real Vision?s Haley Draznin checks out the markets on the first full day of President Biden?s holding office. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
2021-01-22
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Buy the Reflation Rumor and Sell the Recovery News?

DB - Jan20, 2021: Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison joins editor Max Wiethe to update his views on how yield curve steepening is affecting equity markets and his three potential outcomes for the reflation trade. Harrison and Wiethe also debate whether the reflation trade is a "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario and tee up Real Vision?s big content campaign for February where we attempt to answer the question, ?Is Everything a Bubble?? In the intro, editor Jack Farley reviews price action and analyzes Morgan Stanley's latest earnings report. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
2021-01-21
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Discerning the Phases of a Crypto Bull Market( w/ Ari Paul & Raoul Pal)

Crypto Wednesday: Ari Paul, CIO & managing partner of BlockTower Capital, joins Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal to discuss the launch of Paul's fund, value accrual in the crypto space, and how far along we are in this crypto bull market. Paul explains how he views the risk curve and how he filters through crypto projects. He describes the importance of understanding timing in the markets and how he believes crypto markets have dramatically more alpha in them than traditional markets. He closes by discussing the recent regulatory attention that the crypto space has received. Key Learnings: Paul explains the game theoretical concerns of crypto hard forks and how minority chains are insecure. He believes, "We are only in the 4th inning of this bull market cycle." Paul and Pal state that there is significantly more alpha to be found in crypto markets over traditional markets, and they expect it to remain this way for the foreseeable future. Recorded on December 10, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
2021-01-20
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Tony Greer - When the Bond Market Speaks, I Like to Listen

DAILY BRIEFING: Tony Greer of TG Macro tells senior editor Ash Bennington why he has derisked as market sentiment spikes and the bond market continues to sell-off. Looking at indicators such as the put-to-call ratio and open call positions, Tony explains why he has sold off a series of his risk positions, most notably because of the inauguration tomorrow of President Elect Biden. Tony shares with Ash his plan of attack for various assets including grains, fertilizer stocks, and railways, which he sees as an apt way to trade rising inflation expectations. Ash and Tony discuss the continuing ascent of cryptocurrencies, and Tony describes the signals he is looking for in order to go full risk-on. In the intro, Real Vision?s Haley Draznin recaps the market sentiment the day before President-elect Biden?s inauguration. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
2021-01-19
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Ask Me Anything with "The Young Bucks": DB-Jan18, 2021

Real Vision editors Max Wiethe and Jack Farley source questions from Real Vision members via The Exchange in this special, pre-recorded edition of The Real Vision Daily Briefing. Max and Jack discuss everything from how quantitative easing impacts the economy, to who their favorite contributors are, to how the evolution of their macro frameworks have evolved as a result of working at Real Vision. In addition to sharing their thoughts on stocks, bonds, and crypto, Max and Jack consider how their relatively young age should impact their risk tolerance and portfolio construction. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
2021-01-18
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COVID-19 and The Acceleration of Secular Deflation ( w/ Jeff Booth & Raoul Pal )

REAL VISION LIVE REPLAY'S: Last time Jeff Booth, author of ?The Price of Tomorrow,? was on Real Vision, he discussed why the central banks? constant money printing to combat deflation is only a losing battle and how technology contributes to the strengthening of secular deflationary trends. With the arrival of COVID-19 this year, Jeff and Real Vision CEO and co-founder, Raoul Pal, discuss how the pandemic has catalyzed this scenario by contextualizing it within the current market environment, as well as explore what will maintain purchasing power in the long term and avoid monetary debasement. Recorded on Sep 24, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
2021-01-18
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The Incoming Commodity Supercycle ( w/ Tian Yang and Simon White )

Recorded on October 28, 2020. In a peer-to-peer conversation, Tian Yang and Simon White of Variant Perception explore how inflationary pressures could serve as rocket fuel for commodities such as gold and silver, as well as unloved hydrocarbons such as oil, gas, and even coal. White and Yang envision a world of "fiscal dominance" where huge budget deficits invite inflation the likes of which the U.S. hasn?t seen since the 1970s. In this inflationary regime, White and Yang argue, hard commodities will be a source of massive returns. Their thesis is also shaped by their theories on capital scarcity, in which the less capital is deployed in a sector, the greater potential for return. Key learnings: Tian Yang and Simon White argue the world is on the brink of a new inflationary regime, driven by "fiscal dominance" and swollen central bank balance sheets, in which hard assets such as gold, silver, oil, gas, and coal will finally have their heyday. You can read more on the commodity supercycle here: https://rvtv.io/35kVFAd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
2021-01-16
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Looking Forward at Interest Rates, the U.S. Dollar, Volatility, and the B117 Variant: DB-Jan15,2021

Real Vision CEO and co-founder Raoul Pal joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison for a nuanced discussion of how the economic recovery will evolve over the next few months. Raoul and Ed interpret today?s dismal retail sales figures, which indicate a contraction of total retail activity for the third straight month. With the new B117 COVID-19 variant on the move, Raoul expects economic activity to continue to decline, ebbing away at the dominant reflationary trades that are short U.S. Treasurys as well as the U.S. dollar. Ed asks Raoul his thoughts on the recent storming of the U.S. Capitol, the approaching inauguration of President Elect Joe Biden, and Biden?s new $1.9 Trillion stimulus plan. Lastly, Raoul and Ed wax philosophical about ?the death of macro?: what would happen if the volatility of interest rates and currencies ? the bread and butter of macro investing ? were extremely low over the next decade? In the intro, editor Jack Farley provides context on bank earnings and the recent short squeeze of GameStop Corp ($GME). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
2021-01-16
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Real Vision's New President on the Dollar, Bonds, Bitcoin, and Tether: DB-Jan14,2021

Managing editor Ed Harrison welcomes Real Vision?s new president, Travis Kimmel, to the Daily Briefing. Travis shares his Real Vision journey from an entrepreneur to a self-taught investor and outlines his macro framework for thinking inflation, credit creation, and currency flows. Travis explains why he isn?t fully convinced by the reflation narrative and why he believes that fiscal aid is more likely papering over the cracks than truly providing economic stimulus. Travis shares his view of Bitcoin, which he calls ?a curious beast? and ?a tabula rasa for narratives.? Lastly, Travis tells Ed about his concerns about the stable coin Tether. In the intro, Real Vision?s Haley Draznin examines the markets reacting ahead of President-elect Biden?s stimulus speech this evening, and the implications of the jobless claims rising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
2021-01-15
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Why Bond Yields Are the True Reflation Toggle: DB - Jan13,2021

Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison joins Max Wiethe to discuss why he thinks US treasury yields?and not the dollar?is the key to the success or failure of the reflation trade. Together Ed and Max discuss the recent action in the bond market, the knock-on effects this has had for other reflation assets like precious metals, commodities, and equities, and the three discrete outcomes that Ed believes could arise in 2021 depending on the direction and speed of bond market moves. In the intro, Nick Correa provides an overview of the latest Consumer Price Index data. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
2021-01-13
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The Perfect Macro Story( w/ Mike Novogratz & Raoul Pal )

Crypto Wednesday: Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital Holdings, joins Real Vision ceo Raoul Pal to discuss investing in the crypto space, the risk curve, and accelerating crypto adoption. Novogratz breaks down how he allocates his own crypto portfolio and touches on some of the lessons he learned in the 2017 crypto bubble. He explains the impact that COVID-19 had on crypto and the digitization of everything. Novogratz describes the different products and funds available through Galaxy Digital Holdings.Key Learnings: The crypto investment space is growing quickly, and Novogratz shares some of the lessons learned from the previous crypto bubbles he has experienced. He explains the importance of staying rational, and touches on some of the key metrics he follows, such as, market cap and fully diluted market cap. Community and use or "pick up" of a project are core components he looks at when studying a new crypto investment. Recorded on December 10, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
2021-01-13
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How Inflationary Risk Could Corner the Fed: DB- Jan12, 2021

Peter Boockvar, CIO of Bleakley Advisory Group, joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss how the full force of inflation that could emerge in 2021 could pose a significant risk to the Fed?s ability to execute. With Treasury yields rising, Boockvar anticipates the scrutiny of stocks with high price-to-earnings ratios to continue expanding, and once the distribution of the COVID-19 vaccine becomes more extensive in the coming months, he explains that the shift in spending toward services-oriented consumption could trigger a rise in nominal rates, but not necessarily in real rates. With the potential risk of inflation accelerating in the coming months and a yield curve that could steepen too quickly, he argues that these circumstances will restrict the Fed?s ability to act in the case of a market event. In the intro, Real Vision?s Haley Draznin examines the continued rise in treasury yields and the macro economic impact of all the debt that has been printed by the U.S. government. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
2021-01-13
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Bitcoin's Stumble and the Bond Market's Moment of Truth: DB- Jan11,2021

Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison is joined by editor Jack Farley to break down the interplay between interest rates and duration and why lower interest rates cause growth stocks to explode higher as well as what rising yields mean for risk assets and the dollar. Ed and Jack discuss Bitcoin, analyzing its volatility profile as well as its correlation to other cryptocurrencies and to traditional financial assets such as stocks and bonds. Since Bitcoin is in the hands of more institutional investors, who also own and trade traditional assets, Ed and Jack also explore whether the success of Raoul?s ?wall of money? thesis means that Bitcoin will be more positively correlated to stocks and bonds going forward. Lastly, Ed shares several market dislocations that are on his horizon which are shaping his macro framework and trade ideas. In the intro, Real Vision?s Haley Draznin explains why market sentiment is dim on Monday, a modest reversal after last week?s strong start to 2021. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
2021-01-12
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Central Bank Omnipotence ( w/ Jeff Snider and Ed Harrison)

Recorded on 3 Sep, 2020. Central banks are powerful entities -- of this, there is no doubt. As of late, however, they have gone from powerful to almost omnipotent. Markets hang on their every word, and even minuscule changes in rhetoric, implied or explicit, have monumental impacts on how participants position themselves. Since March, the ?Fed's got your back? mantra has rocketed markets to new all-time highs. Now, there are two questions to be had. First, what role will central banks play moving forward as they go above and beyond their mandates? Second, will their macro framework and economic toolkit be enough to lift growth and change the path of inflation? In an attempt to understand how this all plays out, we?ve invited Jeff Snider, head of global research at Alhambra Investment Partners, to sit down with Ed Harrison in this segment of Real Vision Live. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
2021-01-11
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Macro: A Framework for Truth ( w/ Raoul Pal & Lyn Alden )

Recorded on 18 Aug 2020. The unprecedented nature of everything going on today has made topics such as the viability of fiat currencies, USD reserve status, Bitcoin, monetary/fiscal policy, and precious metals the talk of the town. Everyone is now wondering what these things mean and how they will impact their lives moving forward. No doubt, questions abound. However, by using macroeconomics as a lens, one can begin to understand not just what these seemingly complicated things are, but how their interrelated nature can impact the world around us. Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy recently did an Expert View where she laid out many of her positions on these concepts and how they fit into her strategy. For this segment of Real Vision Live, we?ve invited her back to sit down with Real Vision CEO, Raoul Pal, for a macro masterclass where they will dive into these different areas in an attempt to understand where we are, and more importantly, where we may end up. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
2021-01-10
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The Next Phase of the Crypto Bull Market ( w/ Dan Morehead and Raoul Pal )

Dan Morehead, CEO and founder of Pantera Capital, joins Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal to discuss the current macro setup and its relationship to crypto as well as why this crypto bull market is different from the last and what the potential benefits could be from incoming regulations. Morehead explains what the focus at Pantera Capital has been over the past several months, including what he expects to outperform in the crypto sector. He also describes how he sees the crypto ecosystem evolving over the next few years and why the entry of Paypal into the crypto space is significant. Key Learnings: With his extensive knowledge of the macro world, Morehead brings a wealth of expertise to the crypto space, and he expounds on what factors may have contributed to the recent surge in crypto interest and value. He describes why Bitcoin will likely continue to do well; however, he elaborates on why he expects other crypto assets to outperform and why Bitcoin might not be able to outperform some smaller assets in the sector. Recorded on December 8, 2020 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
2021-01-09
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