The Great Simplification with Nate Hagens

Recorded April 17 2024

Description

In this week?s Frankly, Nate focuses on the importance of the Strait of Hormuz, a geographic location within a 700-mile radius of Israel called the ?Black Gold Triangle? where more than half of the world?s remaining oil lies under the sand. In the midst of high-stakes geo-political events where the misery and threats from warring nations dominate discourse, we remain (mostly) energy blind to the choke points that lie at the center of these conflicts, which if disrupted could send our liquid-combustible-fuel dependent economies crashing. How could the threat of expanding regional wars - especially Iran?s potential response in the Strait of Hormuz - impact the world?s reliance on the flow of oil? Who are the people making world-altering decisions - and do they have the best interest of the future in mind? Can a heightened awareness of our global system?s dependency on fragile energy supply chains shift our focus away from escalating risks towards deconfliction and peace?   

YouTube Link here

For Show Notes and More: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/frankly-original/61-the-strait-of-hormuz-and-the-spice

On this episode, Nate is joined by Solar Oven collector and educator Luther Krueger to discuss the ins and outs of solar cooking. In the western world, most of us are used to indoor, gas or electric stoves, typically powered by fossil fuels, and in a third of the world, people are still using solid fuels - wood, coal, or dung - which come with many health and environmental risks. Solar ovens are an alternative which makes use of passive solar energy at a range of temperatures and can be made from basic or reused materials. What would it take on a cultural and economic level for more people to adopt these low-tech solutions? How can solar cooker designs vary to match the needs of the individual and community in varying environmental conditions? Could we take inspiration from this example of Goldilocks Technology for other areas of our lives in a slower, lower-energy throughput future?

About Luther Krueger

Since 2004 Luther Krueger has been collecting unique classic and contemporary solar cookers and promoting solar cooking as the means to halt deforestation, clean unsafe drinking water in remote areas of developing countries, and reducing any community's dependence on fossil fuel. Krueger's unincorporated, volunteer-run Big Blue Sun Museum of Solar Cooking aims to preserve the history of solar cooking while promoting the practice through the video series on the Museum's youtube channel and as contributing moderator to the Solar Cookers World Network on social media and by promoting solar cooking at regional events. Krueger is a Senior Community Faculty member at Metropolitan State University where he teaches the Capstone course for the Master of Public and Nonprofit Administration degree program. Krueger retired from the Minneapolis Police Department in 2023 after twenty-eight years as a civilian community liaison and crime analyst, where he developed and launched several community policing initiatives.

Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/AaLHkRRbbT4

More info, and show notes: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/119-luther-krueger

Recorded April 8 2024

Description

In this week?s Frankly, Nate offers a list of things he is absolutely certain of? or as certain as any human can be. Each of us has grounding beliefs about the reality around us with which we shape our outlook on the world and how we?d like to interact with it. How will planetary and energetic limits interact with human society and culture in the future? Can we recognize truisms about our world without becoming closed off to ways of learning and understanding? What are the fundamental realities of the world around us - and how do they constrain our pathways for the future? 

YouTube Link here 

For Show Notes and More: 

On this episode, Nate is joined by financial analyst Michael Every to discuss global macro trends in economics, politics, and social movements. By taking a wide-view lens of current events, we can better see how seemingly isolated events interconnect and what mainstream economic theories tend to miss. What do rising political tensions and dissatisfaction around the globe amidst increasing GDP tell us about the accuracy of our economic measures? How much are geopolitical conflicts and supply chain disruptions contributing to current inflationary pressures? And what can we learn from current economic models as we steer towards a new system with lower energy throughput in a multipolar world? 

About Michael Every:

Michael Every is Global Strategist at Rabobank Singapore analyzing major developments and key thematic trends, especially on the intersection of geopolitics, economics, and markets. He is frequently published and quoted in financial media, is a regular conference keynote speaker, and was invited to present to the 2022 G-20 on the current global crisis. Michael has lived and worked in 9 countries and been in the industry for nearly 25 years, with previous roles at Silk Road Associates, the Royal Bank of Canada, and Dun & Bradstreet. He holds a BA from Lancaster University, and a master?s degree from University College London.

Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/F_DhZaVoflA 

More info, and show notes: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/118-michael-every 

Recorded April 4 2024

Description

Based on this week?s podcast episode with Geoffrey West, which covered how biological scaling applies to human economies, this week?s Frankly is a reflection on what this might mean for the future of our societies. Throughout history and up to today, there are scaling patterns driving our social and infrastructural metabolism - potentially shedding light on some long debated questions about the limits of our ability to design our societies. Do we as humans have the agency to create different paths towards less resource consumption, or are we trapped within a previously hidden law of nature? Will the resource and waste limitations of our biosphere force us to live differently, regardless of our choices? More hopefully, can understanding we have a metabolism change our metabolism, and steer futures away from the current default?

Watch on Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7qb-9CMM6Ac

For Show Notes and More: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/frankly-original/59-7-meta-questions-about-our-global-metabolism

On this episode, physicist Geoffrey West joins Nate to discuss his decades of work on metabolic scaling laws found in nature and how they apply to humans and our economies. As we think about the past and future of societies, there are patterns that emerge independently across cultures in terms of resource use and social phenomena as the size of a city grows. Does Kleiber?s law, which describes the increasingly efficient use of energy as an animal gets larger - also apply to human cities? How have humans deviated from this rule through excess social consumption beyond a human body?s individual metabolic needs? What could we learn from these scaling laws to adjust our communities to be more aligned with the biophysical realities of energy and resource consumption? Can an understanding of social metabolism impact our social metabolism?

About Geoffrey West

Geoffrey West is the Shannan Distinguished Professor and former President of the Santa Fe Institute and an Associate Senior Fellow of Oxford University?s Green-Templeton College. West is a theoretical physicist whose primary interests have been in fundamental questions ranging across physics, biology and the social sciences. His work is motivated by the search for unifying principles and the ?simplicity underlying complexity?. His research includes metabolism, growth, aging & death, sleep, cancer, ecosystems, innovation and the accelerating pace of life. Most recently he has been developing a science of cities and companies, including the challenge of long-term global sustainability of the anthroposphere. He is the author of the best-selling book Scale; The Universal Laws of Growth, Innovation, Sustainability, and the Pace of Life in Organisms, Cities, Economies, and Companies.

Find out more, and show notes: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/117-geoffrey-west

Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/my9a9Ftr7ek

In this Frankly, Nate recasts his favorite book series, the Hobbit and the Lord of the Rings by JRR Tolkien, with some speculative ?archetypes? of our human world grouped by various timelines. The eventual reduction in energy and material accessibility will likely alter the archetypes that we?re familiar with today - perhaps to become something not helpful to larger society. What categories of human archetypes in the future will have the potential to best influence their communities and the Earth? What will the most powerful among us choose when it comes to protecting their (monetary, temporary) wealth vs using it towards prosocial collective responses? Finally, and most importantly what archetypes will form a new Fellowship of humans to ?bring the ring to Mordor? during humanity?s ?Bend not Break? moment? Which archetype do you resonate with? Are there others?

Watch on Youtube here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3oh-zdo-l8I

For Show Notes and More: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/frankly-original/58-the-fellowship-of-the-ring-bend-not-break-version

On this episode, Nate is joined by systems scientist Riane Eisler to discuss her decades of work studying ?domination? and ?partnership? societies throughout history and what it might mean to transition to more sustainable societies in the future. What we value at the individual and family level directly translates to the way we frame our governance systems - societies that emphasize empathy and caring also implement the same types of policies and values. How could we foster the more cooperative side of our humanity across all scales to create empowered communities and balanced decision making? What societies - past and present - lean towards a partnership paradigm and what benefits do their people receive? Is it possible to move away from violence and control oriented systems and into ones that value wide boundaries of empathy and understand the vital nature of care work?

About Riane Eisler

Riane Eisler is the President of the Center for Partnership Systems, which provides practical applications of her work, and Editor in Chief of the online Interdisciplinary Journal of Partnership Studies published at the University of Minnesota. Eisler?s innovative whole-systems research offers new perspectives and practical tools for constructing a less violent, more egalitarian, gender-balanced, and sustainable future. She is author of many books, including The Chalice and the Blade, now in its 57th US printing and 27 foreign editions, The Real Wealth of Nations, and Nurturing Our Humanity co-authored with Douglas P. Fry. For more information, see www.rianeeisler.com and www.centerforpartnership.org.

Find out more, and show notes: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/116-riane-eisler 

Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/UUF5XWOxVdY 

Recorded March 19 2024

Description

In this Frankly, Nate reflects on ten dichotomies that he sees prevalent in our current culture of information consumption and media.  We are increasingly bombarded with news from traditional media outlets as well as emerging smaller platforms. Yet interpreting these inputs depends on the individual and societal lenses we use, alongside the presentation of and quality of the information itself. Further, how are academic and scientific sources of information becoming increasingly gatekept - accessible to only those who can pay? What should individuals keep in mind as we navigate biases and underlying intentions surrounding journalism and educational content? Are we able to set aside our internalized perspectives of the world and listen to what is being said - rather than leaning into what our identities want us to hear?

To Watch on Youtube: https://youtu.be/ZRQ3g36ZtWo

For Show Notes and More: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/frankly-original/57-information-bifurcation

On this episode, Nate is joined by impact investor Patrick Knodel to discuss how philanthropy and non-profit work might make positive change beyond the superficial level. The power of understanding the values and lived realities of other cultures is often overlooked but is central to finding meaningful interventions and support. Through connecting with people across the globe, Patrick has a deep sense of how to create projects that span beyond single issues, and support the autonomy of communities while preserving the land they inhabit. What does it mean to be constantly learning and questioning what you think you know - and why is it important? Is it possible to change the system from within, shifting away from growth and power paradigms perpetuated by our current institutions? How can we develop worldviews that transcend mainstream narratives and work towards true awareness of the big picture around us?

About Patrick Knodel

Patrick Knodel is the CEO of the knodel foundation, an impact investing firm which focuses on projects that increase sustainability and autonomy for the Global South. He also directs the investments for purpose driven and impactful startups through PANDION INNOVATION for IMPACT GmbH. Patrick has a background in economics and entrepreneurship, but his worldview and drive for non-profit projects has been shaped through his travels. Through all of his work he listens, learns, and tries to influence people with regards to issues around wealth, war, and humanity.

Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/YU60Kn88b6c

More details, and show notes: www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/115-patrick-knodel

On this special episode, risk analyst Chuck Watson returns to discuss the current state of the conflict in Ukraine and the potential for escalation. With the conflict centered around resource control, cultural clashes, and political posturing - will European countries now push to keep the United States involved with the conflict? More, are we seeing the full picture from the perspective of western media? Who is really winning this 'open secret war' and what is the context behind the various realities of the players in this conflict? Are there still peaceful, stable options that maneuver us away from open war and what would those mean for the rest of the world?

About Chuck Watson

Chuck Watson has had a long career in military and intelligence work, with a specialty in natural and human made disaster modeling. He worked for the US Air Force, was an attache to US Ambassadors to the Middle East Robert McFarland, and Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld as a Soviet expert. Chuck has worked as an advisor to the military for over four decades with a particular emphasis on big data, open source intelligence, with an emphasis on the Soviet Union and Russia. Chuck is also the founder and Director of Research and Development of Enki Holdings, LLC, which designs computer models for phenomena ranging from tropical cyclones (hurricanes) and other weather phenomena, earthquakes, and tsunamis, as well as anthropogenic hazards such as industrial accidents, terrorism, and weapons of mass destruction. 

Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/0CeoLYQGUF0

More details, and show notes: www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/114-chuck-watson 

On this episode, Nate is joined by investment strategist Lyn Alden to discuss how energy and technology have shaped our monetary system and current financial trends. While more people are becoming aware of energy?s foundational role in our global systems, it is still widely overlooked, especially among those working in finance. In contrast, Lyn?s biophysically rooted analysis of macroeconomic patterns expose the cyclical dysfunction of the world?s economy. How has increasing energy availability and productivity offset the inflationary nature of fiat currencies - and what happens if this trend were to slow or reverse? What assumptions and biases have led most analysts to mis-read long term trends, leaving us with vulnerable economies? Is it possible to rejigger our systems and innovate more biophysically aligned tools to enable a smoother transition into a future with a lower energy throughput? 

About Lyn Alden:

Lyn Alden is an independent analyst and founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy with a background in engineering management. Her work provides institutional-level research in plain English, so that both institutional investors and retail investors can benefit from it. Lyn also serves as an independent director on the board of Swan.com and as a general partner at the venture capital firm Ego Death Capital. She is the author of the 2023 best-selling book Broken Money about the past, present, and future of money through the lens of technology. Lyn has a bachelor?s degree in electrical engineering and a master?s degree in engineering management, with a focus on engineering economics, systems engineering, and financial modeling. She worked for over a decade as an electrical engineer at the Federal Aviation Administration?s William J. Hughes Technical Center.

For Show Notes and More visit: thegreatsimplification.com/113-lyn-alden 

To watch this video episode on Youtube ? https://youtu.be/JTbZaSL1pHI

Recorded March 5 2024

Description

 In this Frankly, Nate shares his perspective on the new all-time high in oil production in the context of AI?s growing influence in the financial markets and technology space. While ?all liquids? just hit an all time high, the varying categories of what is considered oil obfuscates a long plateau that is starting to decline. However, given AI?s expanding reach, it may not only invent ways of getting a higher percentage of Original Oil In Place to our economies, but also increase demand for energy worldwide. In similar fashion to shale fracking, MMT, and debt, AI will increasingly widen the resource extraction/ecosystem damage ?straw?. Artificial intelligence is potentially a wonderful tool, but it is lower down the hierarchy than money/power maximization and thus will accelerate, not diminish climate change and other environmental damages. Can we resist the cleverness of AI and its ability to drain sources to the very last drop to instead navigate the road to the Great Simplification with wisdom?   

YouTube Link here

For Show Notes and More: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/frankly-original/56-peak-oil-ai-and-the-straw

On this episode, thought leader and ceremonial guide Samantha Sweetwater joins Nate to share her journey through mysticism and guiding others through their own unique spiritual paths. Strengthening relationality is a critical component for fostering deeper connections to nature - including fellow humans - and subsequently creating more cooperative, peaceful societies. Within a culture which predominantly values linear processes, Samantha?s work has centered around finding a balance between convergent thinking and the relational intelligence we?ve neglected. What can we learn from the various indigenous cultures who understand their entanglement with the land? Is it possible for future societies to value a more balanced development across the spiritual, mental, emotional, and physical aspects of its people? How can we - as individuals - nurture the subjective, intersubjective, and objective within ourselves to create more holistic sensemaking within a complex world?

About Samantha Sweetwater:

Samantha Sweetwater is a writer, soul mentor, strategic partner and deeply loved ceremonial guide. She has facilitated transformational experiences in diverse communities, cultures and industries on five continents for over 30 years. Her work bridges spirituality, science, psychedelics, indigenous wisdom, transpersonal psychology, embodiment and deep ecology. She leads experiences and conversations about our relationship with the earth, spirituality and systemic change that transform the way we think about what it means to be human. Samantha is the founder and director of One Life Circle, a plant medicine ministry tending our intimacy with and belonging to Life. She also advises companies and organizations in the areas of technology, health, materials economy and psychedelics. As the former founder of Dancing Freedom and Peacebody Japan, she pioneered the conscious dance movement?facilitating tens of thousands of people and training hundreds of facilitators to seed communities around the globe. She holds an MA in Wisdom Studies and a BA in Social Theory and the Dance with a minor in Legal Philosophy. She has been initiated by indigenous teachers in Africa, South America and the US. 

Her first book, True Human: Reimagining Ourselves at the End of Our World, will be available Fall Equinox 2024.

For Show Notes and More visit: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/112-samantha-sweetwater

To watch this video episode on YouTube: https://youtu.be/-D_y4jqxnmM

Recorded February 26 2024

Description

In this Frankly, Nate shares insights on his personal/organizational priorities as a lead up to outlining 7 global interventions that he sees as being most impactful in preparing for a resource constrained future. As global stability deteriorates and the various macro-crises converge, how we invest our time and resources now can have a big impact for the various scenarios coming our way.  Can we as individuals and communities place health and wellness at the forefront of our responses - which would in turn leverage many other higher impact initiatives? What would healthy humans surrounded by community and a shared purpose, informed by the ecological systems synthesis be able to accomplish?

To Watch on Youtube: https://youtu.be/Mk84BZANyWk

For Show Notes and More: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/frankly-original/55-7-key-interventions-for-the-future

On this episode, astrophysicist Sandra Faber joins Nate for a wideview cosmological conversation on the development of the known-universe and the moral implications for humanity?s role within it. We are the first generation with the ability to truly understand the history of the universe and the extreme bottlenecks that Earth and life as we know it had to endure over the last billions of years. This understanding of where we come from gives us insight into who we are - and could perhaps give purpose to those searching for meaning in the vast universe. From the Big Bang on, how did the necessary conditions come together to create the environment so many of us take for granted today? How do the laws of physics restrict everything that has ever happened in the universe - and everything that ever will? Could a deeper understanding of the cosmos shift our culture towards one that values human?s survival into deep time - and incentivize biophysically and ecologically aligned systems?

About Sandra Faber

Sandra Faber is an American astrophysicist known for her research on the evolution of galaxies. She is the University Professor of Astronomy and Astrophysics at the University of California, Santa Cruz, and works at the Lick Observatory. She has made discoveries linking the brightness of galaxies to the speed of stars within them and was the co-discoverer of the Faber?Jackson relation. Faber was also instrumental in designing the Keck telescopes in Hawaii. At UCSC she focuses her research on the evolution of structure in the universe and the evolution and formation of galaxies. In addition to this, she led the development of the DEIMOS instrument on the Keck telescopes to obtain spectra of cosmologically distant galaxies. On August 1, 2012 she became the Interim Director of the University of California Observatories.

Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/04jg5--t8RQ 

Show notes, and more info: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/111-sandra-faber 

On this episode, Nate is joined by author and technology analyst John Robb to discuss how geopolitics, information warfare, and technology are shaping how we understand the world and interact with each other. With the recent rise in global tensions and violence, plus an escalating threat of catastrophic scenarios, more and more people sense that the system is unstable. Coupled with accelerating developments in artificial intelligence, we live in an environment where interpretation and sensemaking - especially at an individual level - are more difficult than ever. What do these trends and challenges mean for governments and corporations trying to control the flow of information and data? How will near-term technological advancements affect the trajectories of politics, science, and journalism - and is it possible for individuals to be aware of and mitigate their influence? During a time where communication and collective problem solving is more important than ever, will it be possible to navigate between tribes and ideological groups amidst increasing polarization and fractured information systems?

About John Robb

John Robb currently publishes the Global Guerrillas Report, which covers the intersection of War, Politics, and Technology. He served as a tier one special ops, after which he went on to be a popular internet analyst, entrepreneur, the COO of a software company that open sourced the current RSS standard, and much more. He also published the book Brave New War on the subject of the future of warfare.

Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/b2n_Jk37cLE 

Show notes, and more info: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/110-john-robb 

Recorded February 13 2024

Description

Returning from his first visit to India for a six-week limbic reset, Nate shares insights on both his personal experiences in the country and how its history, culture, and role as a rising economic power intermingle to create a unique position into the coming decades. Despite India?s history of avoiding globalization and industrialization, westernized patterns are emerging, including an expanding reliance on fossil fuels - and resultant convenience and consumption. Yet, with a population exceeding 1.4 billion, significant labor devoted to agriculture, and increasing vulnerability to global heating, India will face unique challenges and opportunities within the human predicament. As many Indians remain unaware of their country?s growing role in global heating and the effects it will bring, what alternative opportunities for permaculture and other restorative projects remain within the Indian subcontinent? How could India?s abundant wealth of social capital and unique history/ethos help its people resist the encroachment of the Superorganism and play a larger role in the global Great Simplification?  

To watch on Youtube: https://youtu.be/DFSdUexPGw4

For Show Notes and More: 

On this episode, Nate is joined by Ashley Hodgson, a professor in behavioral economics, where she offers a perspective on the superorganism and what she calls ?The New Enlightenment?. By taking a wide-lens look at the way our human systems work, we can see the incentives and structures that push power towards consumptive, short-sighted, and destructive pathways. How could we ?rejigger? these systems to be more aligned with values and goals conducive to supporting humans long into the future? What are the natural laws that inherently depreciate systems - and how might we think about counteracting them? As we enter a world where the perpetual growth we?ve come to expect is no longer possible, how can we lean into the creativity and ingenuity required when thinking about new economic paradigms?

About Ashley Hodgson

Ashley Hodgson is an Associate Professor of Economics and a YouTuber.  She teaches Behavioral Economics, Digital Industries, Health Care Economics, and Blockchain Economics.  Her YouTube channel, The New Enlightenment, explores topics related to economics, governance, and epistemics ? that is, the determination of truth and validity ? in a world of social media and increasing power concentration. 

Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/lEUhSSl83-Y 

Show notes, and find out more: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/109-ashley-hodgson 

On this episode, economist Steve Keen offers a deep forensic history of why modern economic theory has neglected the role of energy in productivity - and why this ?Energy Blindness? is now a major blindspot in how our culture views the present - and the future.  The massive, temporary carbon surplus we?ve extracted over the last few centuries has resulted in an exponential increase in the standard of living for many. This explosion of global economic growth also happened to coincide with the development of all modern economic theories and formulas, leading to a core misunderstanding in the way our economies are powered. How have technology and innovation been used to cover up the role of a growing energy supply in the last century of rising prosperity? In the midst of discussions between value and labor, where does energy really fit into the equation? Where do we go once we understand the true role of energy in our economy - and will we have the ability to reshape economic policies to be in line with our energy realities?

About Steve Keen

Steve Keen is an economist, author of Debunking Economics and The New Economics: A Manifesto. His new book, Rebuilding Economics from the Top Down, will be released in 2024. He is a Research Fellow at the Institute for Strategy, Resilience, and Security at University College in London. Steve was one of the handful of economists to realize that a serious economic crisis was imminent, and to publicly warn of it from as early as December 2005. This, and his pioneering work on modeling debt-deflation, resulted in him winning the Revere Award from the Real World Economics Review.

Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/lrMWSkzrMYg

Show notes, and more info: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/108-steve-keen 

On this episode, Nate is joined by biophysical analyst Mario Giampietro to unpack his decades of research on a wide-lens view of the challenges facing the human system. With current metrics that only optimize for one variable, increasingly reductionist academic fields, and scientific communication consistently falling short, researchers who look at how all the pieces of our predicament fit together and most effectively help others understand will become more essential. How does the scope with which we look at a problem affect the subsequent information we gather and decisions we make? In what way should we frame the narratives that we create to best inform our leaders and the public about the obstacles of the future? Will taking on these issues from a different lens help to create better, multi-dimensional responses that include biophysical, cultural, and social components as we move into the coming decades?  

About Mario Giampietro:

Mario Giampietro has recently retired from the Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies (ICREA), Barcelona. Until September 2023, he was ICREA Research Professor at the Institute of Environmental Science and Technology of the Universitat Auto?noma de Barcelona, Spain. He has dedicated his academic career to the integrated assessment of (uncomfortable) sustainability issues using concepts from complex systems theory. He has developed a novel methodology, Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism (MuSIASEM), that integrates biophysical and socioeconomic variables across multiple scales, thus establishing a link between the metabolism of socio-economic systems and potential constraints of the natural environment. Recent research has focused on the nexus between land use, food, energy, and water in relation to SDGs. He has (co)authored over 150 publications, including six books. 

For Show Notes and More visit: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/107-mario-giampietro  

To watch this video episode on Youtube ? https://youtu.be/HFZ3NPPPPS0 

On this episode, Nate is joined by Alexa Firmenich, whose work spans biodiversity advocacy, ESG investing, wilderness excursion facilitating, and podcasting/creative writing. Together, they philosophize on the importance of developing a connection to nature and understanding the - often overlooked - but critical function of biodiversity to the climate and other natural systems. Alexa also delves into her thinking about new economic and cultural models on human systems that could work within the biosphere. How can acknowledging our individual roles as a part of the Earth?s larger system give us a new perspective on what it means to live among its other inhabitants? Why does a system full of external incentives ultimately disincentivize our natural human inclination toward pro-sociality? Will a future of lower energy throughput result in each of us rekindling the inherent connection with the land that we live on, leading to simpler lives - yet perhaps more fulfilling ones? 

About Alexa Firmenich:

Alexa Firmenich is an investor, consultant and facilitator focused on climate and biodiversity. She is the co-director of SEED, a new center of the Crowther Lab at ETH Zurich. SEED is developing the world's most holistic measure of biodiversity that reflects multiple scale?s of nature's complexity for any location on the planet, with the goal to steer financial and political decision-makers to crystallize the value of nature into the global economy. Alexa is also the founder of Ground Effect, an animist investment vehicle that supports early stage nature-based solutions, scientific research and new economic models. Parallel to this work she is trained as a group facilitator in leadership development and ecological pedagogy, designing multi-day learning journeys through her role at Leaders' Quest.  She is also an author, podcast host of Lifeworlds, a founding board member of Terra Habitus, a Mexican environmental fund that operates large-landscape conservation and watershed restoration, and a wilderness guide. 

For Show Notes and More visit: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/106-alexa-firmenich 

To watch this video episode on Youtube: https://youtu.be/4POPay2sIr8 

Recorded December 18 2023

Description

In this Frankly, Nate follows up the recent Reality Roundtable on poverty with a wider perspective on the different types of "wealth" in our society that go beyond the material. At the same time that the power dynamic of the economic superorganism leads us to a hyperfocus on the pursuit of growth and monetary wealth, other forms of poverty increase:  relationships, skills, health, and behavioral deficits. How do our assumptions and societal expectations align with the reality of what it means to be rich? Can reflecting on our own place within the various ?Haves? and ?Have-Nots? help us be more compassionate towards others and direct us to a more stable and sane place in society? How will the turmoil and decrease in total material wealth in the coming decades change what it means to be wealthy - and how does that influence the actions and investments we take on today? 

YouTube Link here

For Show Notes and More:

On this episode, Nate is joined by climate researcher Leon Simons to unpack recent trends in global heating during 2023 and potential explanations and subsequent projections for the coming year. While the connection between human emitted greenhouse gasses and global warming is scientifically agreed upon, the other complexities and feedbacks of our climate system are still just beginning to be understood. Today, Leon theorizes on the intensity of aerosol masking from particulates such as sulfur, based on the connection between recent changes in marine fuel sulfur requirements and corresponding climate data. How will the global trend towards aerosol reductions affect near and long term global heating? What does this catch-22 mean for potential future climate action and policy? How should we be thinking about creating a more simplified global system in response to the unknown unknowns of our potential future climate?

About Leon Simons

Leon Simons is a climate researcher and science communicator at the Club of Rome Netherlands and is studying the effects of reduction in sulfur emissions on regional and global radiation changes and its impact on global heating. Most recently he was a co-author of the paper Global Warming in the Pipeline with renowned climate scientist James Hansen. Leon is also the founder of Magic Ventures BV, which works to make clean cooking technologies accessible to people everywhere. 

For Show Notes and More: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/105-leon-simons

Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/RPAnoSt6FnY

Slides referenced in this episode

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23:24 - Slide 3

24:30 - Slide 4

30:46 - Slide 5

32:29 - Slide 6

36:38 - Slide 7

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On this episode, toxicology scientist Dr. Jane Muncke joins Nate to discuss the current state of food production and the effects of ultra processed foods and their packaging on our health. Over the last century processed food has taken over our supermarkets and our diets, and at the same time the containers they?re sold in have evolved as well - to be more eye-catching and keep food ?good? for longer. But what have we sacrificed in exchange for efficiency, ease, and convenience? How do the chemicals used in packaging and processing transfer into the food we eat and subsequently end up in our bodies? Will switching away from these toxic food practices require more local food supply chains - and correspondingly simpler diets and lifestyles?

About Jane Muncke

Jane Muncke holds a doctorate degree in environmental toxicology and a MSc in environmental science from the ETH Zurich. Since 2012 she has been working as Managing Director and Chief Scientific Officer at the charitable Food Packaging Forum Foundation (FPF) in Zurich, Switzerland. FPF is a research and science communication organization focusing on chemicals in all types of food contact materials. She is a full scientific member of the Society of Toxicology (SOT), the Society for Environmental Chemistry and Toxicology (SETAC), the American Chemical Society (ACS) and the Endocrine Society. Since 2019, she has been an elected expert member of the Swiss Organic Farming Association Bio Suisse?s committee on trade and processing where she contributes to further developing the standards for processing and packaging of organic food. She is a director of the FAN initiative, a collective of experts warning about resource overshoot, the polycrisis, and related societal collapse.

Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/I2-roqSWjFo 

More info, and show notes: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/104-jane-muncke 

Recorded December 18 2023

Description

In this Frankly, Nate offers a personal reflection on his learnings about ?awareness? vs ?focus? and how this knowledge could be used as a guide toward more thoughtful behaviors. The human body?s system has evolved through time and the layers were built sequentially, each interacting and reacting to the systems below it. By becoming aware of this and attempting to balance them from the bottom up, we could move away from the reactionary tendencies that many in our culture are now pulled towards. How does an overstimulating, dopamine driven modern environment affect our brains ability to cope? How do our behaviors change when our systems are in a constant state of fear or dissatisfaction? What would the world look like if we spent more time reflecting and realigning rather than in perpetual fight, flight, or freeze mode? 

For Show Notes and to learn more: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/frankly-original/52-the-behavioral-stack

To Watch on Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QynYlsW35Sw&list=PLdc087VsWiC5im7eWkCD0t907MbOAftb3

On this episode, Nate is joined by Peter Brannen, science journalist and author specializing in Earth?s prior mass extinctions, to unpack our planet?s geologic history and what it can tell us about our current climate situation. Humans have become very good at uncovering the history of our planetary home - revealing distinct periods during billions of years of deep time that have disturbing similarities to our own present time. How is the carbon cycle the foundation of our biosphere - and how have changes to it in the past impacted life?s ability to thrive? On the scales of geologic time, how do humans compare to the other species who have inhabited this planet - 99% of which have gone extinct - and will we end up being just a blip in the fossil record? How can an understanding of geologic and climate science prepare us for the environmental challenges we?ll face in the coming decades?

About Peter Brannen

Peter Brannen is an award-winning science journalist and contributing writer at The Atlantic. His work has also appeared in The New York Times, The Washington Post, Wired, Aeon, The Boston Globe, Slate and The Guardian among other publications. His 2017 book, The Ends of the World covers the five major mass extinctions in Earth's history. Peter is currently a visiting scholar at the Kluge Center at the Library of Congress and an affiliate at the Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research at the University of Colorado-Boulder. He was formerly a 2018 Scripps Fellow at CU-Boulder, a 2015 journalist-in-residence at the National Evolutionary Synthesis Center at Duke University, and a 2011 Ocean Science Journalism Fellow at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Woods Hole, MA.

Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/3l81C_11D7A

More information, and show notes: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/103-peter-brannen

On this episode, environmental activist and author Bill McKibben joins Nate for a reflection on the last few decades of climate education and movements ? and the possibilities and challenges that we?ll face ahead. Among a system that is dependent on growth and embedded in a biosphere full of limits (which we continue to surpass), working towards shifting our societies to be ecologically balanced is potentially the most important mission to which an individual can contribute - yet this is much easier said than done. What have been the largest barriers towards actual effective climate action since emissions have continued in a straight line up since the 20th century? What power structures stand as a barrier to proactive initiatives, and which ones could we utilize to propel movements forward? How can we prepare and organize at the individual, community, and national levels, as we look ahead to climate - and other - challenges we?re likely to face in the coming decades?

Bill McKibben is founder of Third Act, which organizes people over the age of 60 for action on climate and justice. His 1989 book The End of Nature is regarded as the first book for a general audience about climate change, and has appeared in 24 languages. He?s gone on to write 20 books, and his work appears regularly in periodicals from the New Yorker to Rolling Stone. McKibben helped found 350.org, the first global grassroots climate campaign, which has organized protests on every continent, including Antarctica, for climate action. He played a leading role in launching the opposition to big oil pipeline projects like Keystone XL, and the fossil fuel divestment campaign, which has become the biggest anti-corporate campaign in history.

Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/qCrgpdHCO3U 

Find out more, and show notes: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/102-bill-mckibben

Recorded December 17 2023

Description

In this final Frankly of 2023, Nate outlines some global themes that are worth keeping an eye on in 2024. From climate change to domestic and global politics to an unstable financial system, world events continue to converge. How will the social fabric of our society respond as changes to our current way of life continue to grow? How do these seemingly isolated events interconnect and enhance each other? How will governments, businesses, and individuals respond to these circumstances as more people are propelled from the lives we?ve become used to and into an unfolding Great Simplification? 

For Show Notes and More: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/frankly-original/51-systemic-themes-for-2024

To watch on Youtube: https://youtu.be/xgMv73iabjQ

On this episode, Arthur Berman returns to unpack the complexity underpinning the oil trends of the last 75 years and what new data can tell us about availability in the coming years. After decades of declining oil production in the United States, the past decade of rising oil extraction has eased many worries about peak oil. But the past few years of continued growth have been obtained by using ?a larger straw?, merely delaying the inevitability of the depletion of a finite resource. Art presents recent data on well productivity in US shale plays indicating we are much closer to ?the slurping sound?. How does technology hide the declining availability of oil reserves, causing us to extract and use them faster without creating any new resources? Going beyond geology, how do geopolitics, finance, and social opinion affect oil availability? Where do we go when economically viable oil isn?t available anymore - and will we have the prudence to make the cultural shifts necessary before we have no other options? Have we now passed ?peak oil??

About Arthur Berman

Arthur E. Berman is a petroleum geologist with 36 years of oil and gas industry experience. He is an expert on U.S. shale plays and is currently consulting for several E&P companies and capital groups in the energy sector.

Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/qqTh2nBEcCs 

Find out more, and show notes: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/101-art-berman

On this Reality Roundtable, Nate is joined by four professionals with decades of experience working with low-income communities, Stephanie Hoopes, Peter Kilde, Marc Perry, and Dalitso Sulamoyo to discuss the state of poverty in the United States. Even in the wealthiest country in the world, poverty is a pernicious problem - and in a future that is more resource constrained it will only get worse. Do the current official measurements of poverty accurately portray the living standards of most Americans? How are poverty and agency entangled, and how do we empower both for people who currently aren?t meeting survivability standards? What role does community and social capital play in alleviating resource limitations and creating a better quality of life? 

About Stephanie Hoopes

Stephanie Hoopes, PhD, is the National Director of United For ALICE at United Way of Northern New Jersey. She developed the ALICE (Asset, Limited, Income, Constrained, Employed) measures for a pilot study of the low-income community in Morris County while at Rutgers University-Newark, and has since overseen the expansion to a national effort with ALICE data for all 3,000 U.S. counties. Her research has garnered the attention of local, state, and national media. Dr. Hoopes has a doctorate degree from the London School of Economics.

About Peter Kilde 

Peter Kilde has been ED of West CAP, an anti-poverty community action agency in West Central Wisconsin since 1995.  West CAP has developed and manages multiple low-income housing projects, and operates homelessness, weatherization, food security, adult literacy and skills, and various sustainable community programs. Peter served on the National Community Action Partnership Board of Directors, where he established and co-chaired the Partnership for Climate Resilience which focuses on how CAP agencies across America can help their communities adapt to Climate Change. Peter also serves on the Wisconsin Community Action Program Association (WISCAP) Board, the regional Workforce Development Board.

About Marc Perry 

Marc Perry has more than 25 years? experience working with youth and adults from diverse backgrounds. Marc currently serves as the Executive Director for Community Action Inc., of Rock and Walworth Counties where he is responsible for making sure the organization stays true to its mission of moving families toward economic self-reliance. Marc provides training and technical assistance for partner organizations and facilitates cultural equity workshops for both private and public institutions, including school districts, NGOs and law enforcement entities throughout the Midwest.

About Dalitso Sulamoyo

Dalitso Sulamoyo was born and raised in Malawi, South East Africa.  Since moving to the United States of America in the early 1990s, he has made economic and social justice a focal part of his career. Dalitso Sulamoyo has been the Chief Executive Officer of the Champaign County Regional Planning Commission since June 2017. As the CEO, Dalitso oversees a multi-faceted government agency with over 140 different federal, state, and local grants and contracts with a budget of over $6million. The agency?s services range from transportation planning, police training, energy efficiency training, community services, workforce development, economic and community development to early childhood education for income eligible families.

For Show Notes and More visit: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/rr07-hoopes-kilde-perry-sulamoyo 

To watch this video episode on YouTube: https://youtu.be/359aiDUDHRo 

In this week?s Frankly, we join Nate in a fascinating thought experiment imagining participants in this week?s COP 28 in Dubai are liberated from the usual social sorting mechanisms which constrain real, forthright, challenging conversation around solving our most dire issues.  What questions might participants ask at COP28 if there were no fear of losing social status and how might this liberation change the conversation around global heating?   As social primates, there is a stainless steel ceiling on how much we can say in large groups of other humans -especially high status ones.  Like the famous ?smoke under the door? experiment of the 1970s, as the events of our world get more complex and more threatening, our first reality filter is observing the response of contemporaries. If they are unconcerned, we too tend to be.  Unlike the one-room controlled college experiment, we now live in a smoke filled world, and the stakes couldn't be higher. If you were sitting in Dubai at the convening of COP 28, what question would you ask given the state of the world right now??

For Show Notes and to learn more: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/frankly-original/50-cop-28-and-the-smoke-under-the-door

To Watch on YouTube 

On this special 100th episode, Nate is interviewed by his friend and colleague in the metacrisis space, Kate Raworth. The conversation is a reflection on the past two years of podcasting ? and how Nate?s worldview has evolved because of it. What fundamental concepts could help us better understand the trends happening around us and the potential futures they point to? With so many moving pieces, how can we begin to create a coherent story of the world around us and - even more difficult - start preparing responses to coming challenges? What should individuals aware of these converging crises be thinking about in order to prepare themselves, their families, and their communities for a materially smaller future?

About Nate Hagens

Nate Hagens is the Director of The Institute for the Study of Energy & Our Future (ISEOF) an organization focused on educating and preparing society for the coming cultural transition. Allied with leading ecologists, energy experts, politicians and systems thinkers, ISEOF assembles road-maps and off-ramps for how human societies can adapt to lower throughput lifestyles. Nate holds a Masters Degree in Finance with Honors from the University of Chicago and a Ph.D. in Natural Resources from the University of Vermont. He teaches an Honors course, Reality 101, at the University of Minnesota.

About Kate Raworth

Kate Raworth describes herself as a renegade economist focused on making economics fit for 21st century realities. She is the creator of the Doughnut of social and planetary boundaries, and co-founder of Doughnut Economics Action Lab, based on her best-selling book Doughnut Economics: 7 Ways to Think Like a 21st Century Economist. Kate is a Senior Associate at Oxford University?s Environmental Change Institute, where she teaches on the Masters in Environmental Change and Management. She is also Professor of Practice at Amsterdam University of Applied Sciences. She is a member of the Club of Rome and currently serves on the World Health Organisation Council on the Economics of Health for All.

Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/GocuMZX3hIs

Learn more, and show notes: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/100-nate-hagens

On this episode, Nate is joined by co-founder of GMO Financial Holdings, Jeremy Grantham, to discuss how finance, human population, ecology, and pollution interact to shape current trends and what they could tell us about the future. Mr. Grantham unpacks why the expectations of perpetual growth - in the economy, standards of living, and finance - are not so likely and that when looking at the system holistically we should expect large paradigm shifts in the coming decades. What can the pattern of super (stock market) bubbles over the last century tell us about the larger resource bubble we find ourselves in? How will rapidly changing population demographics and fertility rates interact with the other global crises we face? How might endocrine disrupting chemicals impact these other trends? Where should investors be focusing energy and resources towards to make the largest and most positive impact on human and planetary futures? 

About Jeremy Grantham

Jeremy Grantham co-founded GMO in 1977 and is a member of GMO?s Asset Allocation team, serving as the firm?s long-term investment strategist. He is a member of the GMO Board of Directors, a partner of the firm, and has also served on the investment boards of several non-profit organizations. Prior to GMO?s founding, Mr. Grantham was co-founder of Batterymarch Financial Management in 1969 where he recommended commercial indexing in 1971, one of several claims to being first. He began his investment career as an economist with Royal Dutch Shell. Mr. Grantham earned his undergraduate degree from the University of Sheffield (U.K.) and an MBA from Harvard Business School. He is a member of the Academy of Arts and Sciences, holds a CBE from the UK and is a recipient of the Carnegie Medal for Philanthropy.

For Show Notes and More visit: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/99-jeremy-grantham 

To watch this video episode on YouTube: https://youtu.be/cTvN9iFJ0fY 

In this Frankly, a follow up to ?One Ring to Rule Them All?, Nate unpacks the common misconception that AI is the answer to all our energy and ecological problems, specifically climate change. As the development of AI continues to accelerate, many propose that we are entering the ?Exponential Age?, yet what?s ignored is that we?ve just lived through an age of exponential impact on Earth?s systems. Under this same ?operating system?, AI can at best act as a more powerful tool for the continuation of this phenomenon - not to restore ecological stability as some would hope.  If AI is based on current cultural goals and aspirations, who will ultimately benefit and who will pay the costs? What types of solutions is AI capable of developing - and more importantly, where is the interplay of AI and human responsibility required to then implement those ideas to fruition?  

To Watch on Youtube: https://youtu.be/zY29LjWYHIo

For Show Notes and More: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/frankly-original/49-ai-vs-real-ecology

On this episode, political economist Helen Thompson and Nate discuss how energy and geopolitics have interconnected over the past century, building to the entangled political relationships we see around us today. The dynamics of power on a global scale are complex - stemming from access to energy, financial control, military strength, credibility/trust, and much more - yet we can understand these a bit better by learning the history that shaped them. How have geologic provinces of energy dense carbon created inherent hot spots on the geopolitical playing field? How has the global monetary system and debt evolved to strengthen the power of a select few countries and how difficult is it to break from this system? Do our leaders have the capability/knowledge to connect energy and geopolitical policy in order to guide us through a future of declining energy availability? 

About Helen Thomspon:

Helen Thompson is Professor of Political Economy at Cambridge since 1994. Her current research concentrates on the political economy of energy and the long history of the democratic, economic, and geopolitical disruptions of the twenty-first century. She is a regular panelist on Talking Politics and a columnist for the New Statesman. She is a co-presenter of UnHerd's podcast, These Times and recently published Disorder: Hard Times in the 21st Century.

For Show Notes and More visit:  https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/98-helen-thompson

To watch this video episode on Youtube ? https://youtu.be/FQbdNXQcT3E

On this Reality Roundtable, Nate is joined by small-scale farmer Jason Bradford, permaculturist and documentarian Andrew Millison, regenerative agriculture activist Vandana Shiva, and regenerative farmer and educator Daniel Zetah to discuss the feasibility of a food system fully or mostly independent of fossil fuel inputs. While a non-industrialized agriculture system is certainly possible (it was the norm for the majority of human history), what that will look like and how we even begin such a transition is daunting with a population of 8 billion humans to feed. How do we teach people the skills they?ll need as fossil inputs become less affordable, reliable, and accessible? Can we create a cultural shift towards a slower lifestyle that is more connected to the land which provides us food? What do the people of a society look like where we are once again centered around agriculture and in tune with the flows of nature? How would our relationship with jobs and the land have to change?

About Jason Bradford:

Jason Bradford has been affiliated with Post Carbon Institute since 2004, first as a Fellow and then as Board President. He worked for the Center for Conservation and Sustainable Development at the Missouri Botanical Garden, was a Visiting Scholar at U.C. Davis, and during that period co-founded the Andes Biodiversity and Ecosystem Research Group (ABERG). He decided to shift from academia to learn more about and practice sustainable agriculture, and in the process, completed six months of training with Ecology Action (aka GrowBiointensive) in Willits, California, and then founded Brookside School Farm.

About Andrew Millison:

Andrew Millison is an innovative educator, storyteller and designer. He founded the Permaculture Design education program at Oregon State University (OSU) in 2009. At OSU Andrew serves as an Education Director and Senior Instructor who offers over 25 years of experience, and a playful approach to regenerative design. Andrew is also a documentary videographer who travels the world documenting epic permaculture projects in places such as India, Egypt, Mexico, Cuba, and throughout the US. You can view his videos and series on his YouTube channel.

About Vandana Shiva

Vandana Shiva is a well known activist, author of many books, and is a global champion on regenerative local agriculture, biodiversity and nutritious food. She has a PhD in physics and 40 years ago founded the Research Foundation for Science, Technology and Ecology, an independent research institute that works on the most significant ecological problems of our times. 

About Daniel Zetah:

Daniel grew up on a farm in Minnesota where he learned to fix all manner of things driven from an insatiable curiosity about how things worked. He studied economics and business at university. After waking to our planetary predicament, he became a full time environmental activist, then moved to an off grid community in the mountains where he studied permaculture and built straw bale houses. He moved back to America to help steer culture in a more sane direction. He and his wife Stephanie moved back to the family farm in Minnesota where they are growing 80% of their calories, rebuilding the local ecology, and educating and empowering people to wrest back control of their sovereignty as human beings. 

For Show Notes and More visit: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/rr06-bradford-millison-shiva-zetah

(Conversation recorded on November 2nd, 2023)  

On this episode, Nate is re-joined by risk expert Chuck Watson for a candid discussion of recent news regarding the nuclear developments between Russia and the United States. As the world?s attention is focused on the events in the Middle East, US testing and development of new nuclear weapons and Russia?s decision to pull out of the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty last week have been overlooked and underreported by major media. Yet, in the bigger picture these trends represent some of the most imminent risks to life on Earth as we know it. What is the history behind this framework of trust that took decades to develop, and how quickly might our current fear spiral destroy it? Are the people in positions of power aware of the dangers of this situation and acting with appropriate caution? What should concerned individuals and leaders understand and advocate for to minimize this truly existential risk?

About Chuck Watson:

Chuck Watson has had a long career in military and intelligence work, with a specialty in natural and human made disaster modeling. He worked for the US Air Force, was an attache to US Ambassadors to the Middle East Robert McFarland, and Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld as a Soviet expert. Chuck has worked as an advisor to the military for over four decades with a particular emphasis on big data, open source intelligence, with an emphasis on the Soviet Union and Russia. Chuck is also the founder and Director of Research and Development of Enki Holdings, LLC, which designs computer models for phenomena ranging from tropical cyclones (hurricanes) and other weather phenomena, earthquakes, and tsunamis, as well as anthropogenic hazards such as industrial accidents, terrorism, and weapons of mass destruction. 

For Show Notes and More visit: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/97-chuck-watson

To watch this video episode on Youtube ? https://youtu.be/8T9vGNNdKKs

Recorded October 31 2023

Description

In this Frankly, Nate expands on our conventional definition of ?taxes? to highlight nine other categories that will ?tax? our modern lifestyles. Traditionally, when we think of net and gross income, we only think of direct government taxes that subtract from what we take home. What are other taxes - resulting from our system's ecology - which will factor into the way society can pay for the goods and services we?ve become used to? As converging global crises intensify and each add their own ?tax?, can we learn to manage with a smaller ?net ? resource balance sheet - and maintain our time, sanity, and humanity through the coming decades?

Watch on Youtube: https://youtu.be/27WBbdMcfmM

For Show Notes and More: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/frankly-original/48-the-biophysical-taxman-cometh

On this episode, Nate is joined by ?permaculture? author and educator David Holmgren to discuss his experience within the movement and what it might look like for more systems to be designed using permaculture in the future. While often thought to be an agricultural tool, permaculture thinking is meant for designing human systems to be embedded in nature - an important principle for a future where societies will need to re-synchronize with natural flows. What does it mean for permaculture design to ?scale up?, and how is it different from how we usually think about growing a system? How will permaculture design change as we move through different phases of resource availability? More importantly, how can the ?small and slow? foundation of permaculture help human societies adapt to a lower throughput future as we navigate The Great Simplification?

About David Holmgren 

David Holmgren is best known as the co-originator of permaculture. In 1978, he and Bill Mollison published Permaculture One, starting the global permaculture movement. Since then, David has developed three properties, consulted and supervised on urban and rural projects, written eight more books, and presented lectures, workshops and courses in Australia and around the world. His writings over those three decades span a diversity of subjects and issues, whilst always illuminating aspects of permaculture thinking and living.

Holmgren Design would like to offer a discount on RetroSuburbia to The Great Simplification listeners. Get a 20% discount on RetroSuburbia plus a free copy of Our Street for the month of November by using code: Nate at this link: http://retrosuburbia.com/nate

Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/A9hW4Jh9hF0 

Show Notes & Links to Learn More: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/96-david-holmgren 

Recorded October 27 2023

Description

In this forty-seventh Frankly, Nate reflects on?..Franklys. As real time global events move faster and faster, they alter the timing (and content!) of planned Frankly reflections on aspects of our global discourse. In light of this, Nate offers a raw take on events in Israel (and financial markets) and a growing list of upcoming topics relevant to the unfolding human predicament. The purpose of these Franklys is not to provide real time intel or analysis but is instead to continually provide a systems lens to inform the scout team of humans who seek an integrated world view to inform their actions.  Our tendencies to focus on single issues - the war in Israel, the geo-political impacts of the Russia/Ukraine war, the growing financial crisis and debt, global heating - challenges our ability to build a broader awareness of how these pieces fit together and shine light on the viable  paths we can still take to the future.  Is it possible to focus less on productivity and more on awareness and reflection?  Can we effectively change the consciousness of those in power? How can we attempt to navigate the ever-shorter road to the Great Simplification?

For Show Notes and More: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/frankly-original/47-frankly-re-franklys

To Watch on Youtube: https://youtu.be/ZJbKVu7vbLk

On this episode, Nate is joined by climate scientist and policy ambassador Sir David King to unpack the current situation regarding Earth?s climate system and human response (or lack thereof) to the accelerating heating of the atmosphere. While there are many uncertainties this field still grapples with, the fundamentals of the rising average global temperature as a response to increasing man-made greenhouse emissions are widely recognized by the global scientific community. Yet - especially in the United States - climate change remains a contentious issue, making it an even tougher political topic with no easy solutions. What is the basic science behind our understanding of the atmosphere?  Will we resort to geoengineering to avert the worst climate outcomes - and which plans look the most promising? What are the implications of global heating for the coming decades and beyond?

About Sir. David King

Sir David King is an Emeritus Professor of Physical Chemistry at the University of Cambridge. He is the Chair of the Climate Crisis Advisory Group, Founder of the Centre for Climate Repair at Cambridge, and an Affiliate Partner of SYSTEMIQ Limited. He was the UK Government Chief Scientific Adviser from 2000-2007 and the Foreign Secretary's Special Representative on Climate Change from 2013-2017. He also spearheaded a collaborative program called Mission Innovation, which involved 25 countries and the EU to create a publicly funded £23bn pa research and development international exercise aimed at delivering all technologies needed to complete the transition into a fossil-fuel-free world economy. He has been a Fellow of the Royal Society since 1991 and a Foreign Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences since 2002. Sir Dave was knighted in 2003 and made "Officier dans l'ordre national de la Légion d'Honneur" in 2009. Recently, he was also named The American Association for the Advancement of Science 2022 Hamburg Awardee for Science Diplomacy.

Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/u7jETRJrkmk 

Show Notes & Links to Learn More: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/95-sir-david-king 

On this Special episode Nate speaks once again with risk expert Chuck Watson for a critical assessment of the unfolding situation around Israel which adds to the rapidly escalating dangers of our current geopolitical landscape. As tensions rise, the potential risks that geopolitical confrontation in the Middle East poses could spill over into energy, economic systems, and our social fabric - Chuck lends his deep expertise and decades of experience to shed light on these complex dynamics. How do our individual perspectives of where history begins influence who we see as ?good? or ?evil? and is it even possible to find an unbiased source of ?truth?? What does Western diplomacy look like in a world no longer based on fear - and will the United States risk being stretched too thin trying to preserve the unipolar world of past generations? How do we even begin to navigate the minefield of geopolitical tensions that seem to be growing daily so as to maintain some sort of stability that avoids catastrophic outcomes in coming years?

About Chuck Watson

Chuck Watson has had a long career in military and intelligence work, with a specialty in natural and human made disaster modeling. He worked for the US Air Force, was an attache to US Ambassadors to the Middle East Robert McFarland, and Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld as a Soviet expert. Chuck has worked as an advisor to the military for over four decades with a particular emphasis on big data, open source intelligence, with an emphasis on the Soviet Union and Russia. Chuck is also the founder and Director of Research and Development of Enki Holdings, LLC, which designs computer models for phenomena ranging from tropical cyclones (hurricanes) and other weather phenomena, earthquakes, and tsunamis, as well as anthropogenic hazards such as industrial accidents, terrorism, and weapons of mass destruction.

Show Notes & Links to Learn More: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/94-chuck-watson

On this episode, Nate is joined by energy industry professional Joris van der Schot to explain the basics of oil refineries, their limitations, and other cultural narratives about energy. Oil is the lifeblood of our economies, yet most of us know so little about how it actually becomes all the different final products that we use. Just how massive is the scale of our energy consumption? How flexible and resilient are oil refineries to shifting oil demand? Can we keep an open mind to realistic and helpful innovations while also grounding our preparations for the future in practical energy strategy ahead of The Great Simplification?

Joris van der Schot is a former Royal Dutch Shell executive with over a decade of international experience in the oil industry, where he held roles as a control systems engineer, corporate strategy advisor, refinery economist and lastly, the company's global aviation gasoline supply manager.After a sabbatical year in Provence, Joris left the oil industry and set out on a quest to accelerate the clean energy transition through breakthrough technology. He currently works at french scale-up Energy Pool, providing storage and other flexibility services that enable the integration of renewable energy on the electricity grid.

Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/kmzzIWkTLyU

More info, and show notes: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/93-joris-van-der-schot 

On this Reality Roundtable, philosopher and writer Dougald Hine, social scientist and farmer Chris Smaje, and ecologist and farmer Pella Thiel join Nate to discuss the future of food and community. Our disconnected relationship to agriculture and our neighbors have been shaped by a modern industrial society fueled by surplus hydrocarbon energy. What will these relationships look like in a lower energy future, where we need to once again work with each other and the land, rather than in isolation. Can we learn from history to celebrate with each other in times of abundance and find strength in community in times of need? In the present world where people are in constant search for meaning and purpose, what are strategies to find joy in simplicity and well-being through the growing and sharing of food?

About Dougald Hine

Dougald Hine is a social thinker, writer and speaker. After an early career as a BBC journalist, he co-founded organizations including the Dark Mountain Project and a school called HOME. His latest book is At Work in the Ruins: Finding Our Place in the Time of Science, Climate Change, Pandemics & All the Other Emergencies (2023). He co-hosts The Great Humbling podcast and publishes a Substack called Writing Home.

About Chris Smaje

Chris Smaje is a writer, social scientist and small-scale farmer, co-running a mixed holding in Somerset, southwest England. He's the author of A Small Farm Future (2020) and Saying NO to a Farm-Free Future (2023), both published by Chelsea Green. He blogs at and is contactable via www.chrissmaje.com.

About Pella Thiel

Pella Thiel is a maverick ecologist, part-time farmer, full-time activist and teacher in ecopsychology. She is the co-founder of swedish hubs of international networks like Swedish Transition Network and End Ecocide Sweden and a knowledge expert in the UN Harmony with Nature programme. Pella was awarded the swedish Martin Luther King Award in 2023 and the Environmental Hero of the year 2019.

Watch on YouTube

https://youtu.be/NVeCw-Ljenk

Show Notes & Links to Learn More: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/rr05-hine-smaje-thiel 

In this Frankly, Nate shares his perspective on the recent events in the Middle East and how they could lead to a shortening of the timeline to The Great Simplification. For those fortunate to live outside the direct impacts of these conflicts, many feel pressure to stay informed about this turbulent, global landscape. Is it possible to also remain grounded in the present realities of our daily lives? How do individual responses to this past week?s geopolitical events vary depending on the livelihood demands of the here and now? Is it possible to live simply in our own lives while also engaging globally ahead of the Great Simplification?

For Show Notes and More: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/frankly-original/46-the-middle-east-stormwatch

To Watch on Youtube: https://youtu.be/wODlwoKJEE0

On this episode, Art Berman returns to give a broad update on the state of global oil - from BRICS+ and shale oil to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and oil investment. As Art says, ?oil is the economy? and understanding the complex dynamics of the oil market provides insight into the entire economic system. How do geological luck and foreign policy create the global stage for oil markets? What is the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, have we been misusing it, and does it matter in comparison to larger energy policy blunders? What are the current dynamics affecting oil prices and how will this affect the long term out-look of oil availability?

Please note: this episode was recorded prior to the Israel/Palestine events of last weekend.

Arthur E. Berman is a petroleum geologist with 36 years of oil and gas industry experience. He is an expert on U.S. shale plays and is currently consulting for several E&P companies and capital groups in the energy sector.

Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/n-IetuaYLmw

More info, and show notes: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/92-art-berman 

In this Frankly, Nate refers to a favorite timeless book series, The Lord of the Rings, to describe ?the nine rings for mortal men? - behavioral tendencies that are common among humans based on our evolutionary nature but become counterproductive within modern culture. These traits drive the growth of the Superorganism through ?one ring to rule them all?, the amassing of power and the synergy of agricultural surplus, fossil energy, money, and Artificial Intelligence. Can this out of control power dynamic be broken and redirected away from the influence of the One Ring?  Will we have the courage and wisdom to stop our drive to amass power as we approach the Great Simplification?

For Show Notes and More: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/frankly-original/45-one-ring-to-rule-them-all

To Watch on Youtube: https://youtu.be/zXgIAQZu3I4

On this episode, financial analyst Luke Gromen joins Nate to discuss how the availability of cheap energy has underpinned our current financial architecture and expectations - and what peak cheap oil implies for the future. A central part of this story is the rise of the US dollar as a global reserve currency tightly linked with the ability to purchase oil - subsequently leading to the US becoming a major exporter of debt. How have countries with economies based on natural resources and manufacturing differed in their response to geopolitical uncertainty in comparison to those who are based around finance and the service industry? What might the response be from countries holding US debt in anticipation of a declining oil supply? What does this mean for the future of global currencies in a simplified global economy and a finance system that will eventually need to be re-tethered to the finite nature of Earth? 

About Luke Gromen:

Luke Gromen is the Founder and President of research firm Forest For The Trees, LLC, whose goal is to aggregate a wide variety of macroeconomic, thematic and sector trends in an unconventional manner to identify investable developing economic bottlenecks for clients. Luke founded FFTT to apply what clients and former colleagues consistently described as a ?unique ability to connect the dots? during a time when he saw an increasing ?silo-ing? of perspectives occurring on Wall Street and in corporate America. Luke has 25 years of experience in equity research, equity research sales, and as a macro/thematic analyst. He holds a BBA in Finance and Accounting from the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve University. He earned the CFA designation in 2003.

For Show Notes and More visit: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/91-luke-gromen

To watch this video episode on Youtube ? https://youtu.be/bIq0o40Jo80

On this episode, Nate is joined by Professor Nick Haddad, a conservation scientist with a focus on butterflies and other insects. Nick unpacks what decades of research have indicated about the declining state of insect populations, which act as the foundation of critical ecosystem functions. The overlooked degradation of butterflies, beetles, bees, ants, ladybugs, and countless other species have huge ripple effects across our local and global ecological functions - from a loss of bird populations to a reduced ability to grow food. Why are we not more concerned about the health and vitality of these critical organisms? Can humans - or life as we know it - survive without these little creatures? What can we do as individuals, businesses, and governments to help insects rebound as quickly as possible, and in turn strengthen the health of everything else.

Professor Nick Haddad is co-lead of the Long Term Ecological Research site at Kellogg Biological Station at Michigan State University. He leads decades-long, landscape-scale experiments that bring scientific principles to conservation actions. He studies how landscape diversity, including prairie strips through croplands, affect biodiversity, especially of plants and insects, and of ecosystem services including pollination, biocontrol, and decomposition. For three decades he has led the world?s largest experiment testing the role of landscape corridors in increasing dispersal of most plant and animal species, and increasing plant diversity. He has conducted long-term restoration experiments to guide conservation of rare butterflies in the face of climate and land use change. Nick brings together ideas in science and management through ConservationCorridor.org.

Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/_qzS5Nig4_w

Show notes and more info: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/90-nick-haddad