BG2Pod with Brad Gerstner and Bill Gurley

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they are joined by Jamin Ball (Partner at Altimeter) to discuss the state of venture capital and incentives, implications of overcapitalization, the future of power law returns, AI’s impact on investment strategies, the future of AI and CapEx, the market’s reactions to the 2024 election, the evolution of search and AI integration, Nasa, SpaceX, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2.

Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(00:52) Bill’s Dad | from Nasa to SpaceX

(06:20) State of VC and Incentives w/ Jamin Ball

(12:31) Implications of Overcapitalization

(25:08) The Future of Power Law Returns

(38:28) The Impact of AI on Investment Strategies

(46:00) Future of AI and Capital Expenditure

(52:21) Market Reactions to 2024 Election

(01:00:45) Evolution of Search and AI Integration

Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com

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Brad Gerstner @altcap

Bill Gurley @bgurley

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Jamin Ball @jaminball⁠

Shownotes 

Clouded Judgement Substack

#BillGurley #BradGerstner #Bg2Pod

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week, joined by Sunny Madra (Groq) they discuss Jensen Huang’s recent appearance on the podcast, including scaling intelligence towards AGI, NVIDIA's strategic positioning, the role of CUDA in the developer ecosystem, the future of inference workloads, systems-level thinking,  Elon Musk's influence on AI development, the future of AI assistants, open vs closed AI models, safety and security in AI development, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2.

Chapters

(00:00) Introduction and Initial Reactions to Jensen

(04:32) NVIDIA's Position in Accelerated Compute

(05:11) CUDA and NVIDIA’s Competitive Moat

(12:53) Challenges to NVIDIA’s Competitive Advantage

(18:22) Future Outlook on Inference

(24:46) The Insatiable Demand for AI and Hardware

(27:12) Elon Musk' and X.ai

(31:47) Scaling AI Models and Clusters

(34:17) Economic Models and Funding in AI

(39:08) The Future of AI Pricing and Consumption Models

(42:25) Memory, Actions, and Intelligent Agents

(47:08) The Role of AI in Business Productivity

(51:03) Open vs Closed Models in AI Development

#jensenhuang #nvidia #bradgerstner #billgurley #clarktang #xai #memphiscluster #elonmusk #noambrown #openai #gptstrawberry

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week, Jensen Huang, CEO of NVIDIA, makes a guest appearance. In Bill’s absence, Brad is joined by Clark Tang (Partner at Altimeter) as they discuss with Jensen scaling intelligence towards AGI, the acceleration of machine learning, NVIDIA's competitive advantages, the significance of inference alongside training, future market dynamics in the AI landscape, the impact of AI on various industries, the future of work, inference time reasoning, AI’s potential to enhance productivity, the balance between open source and closed source, Elon’s Memphis Supercluster, X.ai, OpenAI, the safe development of AI, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2.

Chapters

(00:00) Introduction

(1:50) The Evolution of AGI and Personal Assistants

(06:03) NVIDIA's Competitive Moat

(15:51 ) The Future of Inference and Training in AI

(19:01) Building the AI Infrastructure

(31:35) Inventing a New Market in an AI Future

(38:40) The Impact of OpenAI

(43:25) The Future of AI Models

(46.44) X.ai and Memphis Supercluster

(51:21) Distributed Computing and Inference Scaling

(55:54) Inference Time Reasoning and Its Importance

(01:00:46) AI's Role in Growing Business and Improving Productivity

(01:08:00) Ensuring Safe AI Development

(01:12:31) The Balance of Open Source and Closed Source AI

#jensenhuang #nvidia #bradgerstner #billgurley #clarktang #xai #memphiscluster #elonmusk #noambrown #openai #gptstrawberry

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they discuss private sector interest in nuclear energy, AI supply and demand, OpenAI Strawberry o1,inference constraints, the evolution of AI models, the state of VC, zombiecorns, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2.

Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(00:36) The U.S. Nuclear Renaissance

(08:15) AI Fast and Furious

(11:19) OpenAI Strawberry o1

(17:15) Inference Constraints

(20:18) Open AI Breaking Out

(35:00) State of VC

(43:52) “Quasi-Public Companies”

(48:32) Liquidity / IPOs

(58:41) Tech Market Check

Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com

Follow:

Brad Gerstner @altcap

Bill Gurley @bgurley

BG2 Pod @bg2pod

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they sit down with Maureen Zawalick (Vice President at Diablo Canyon Power Plant) to discuss the importance of nuclear power, the history and future of Diablo Canyon Power Plant, the role of AI in the nuclear industry, the cost differential of nuclear energy in the US and China, Gen 4 reactors, regulation, litigation, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2.

Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(04:14) Maureen Zawalick | VP at Diablo Canyon

(06:13) The Need for Diablo

(10:07) The Importance of Nuclear Power

(15:50) License Renewal and the Future of Diablo

(18:39) Hope for Expanding Nuclear Power

(25:22) Nuclear Waste

(30:29) Cost Differential: US vs China

(38:56) Factors Contributing to Cost Differential

(45:07) Implications of China’s Nuclear Leadership

(47:42) Nuclear Energy and AI Supremacy

(50:58) The Innovation Gap and Gen 4 Reactors

(57:27) Overcoming Challenges

(01:03:45) A Call for Government Support

Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com

Follow:

Brad Gerstner @altcap https://x.com/altcap

Bill Gurley @bgurley https://x.com/bgurley

BG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2Pod

****

Shownotes:

US Navy Nuclear Propulsion Program 2020

ITIF.org - How Innovative Is China in Nuclear Power

NYTimes - Nuclear Power Can Save the World

Reuters - Constellation talking to Pennsylvania on Three Mile Island restart

Julie Dewahl - Nuclear Past Present Future

Breakthrough Institute - China’s Impressive Rate of Nuclear Construction

Next Big Future - US Nuclear Cost 5-10x More Than China

Energy.gov - Newly Signed Bill to Boost Nuclear

Advanced Nuclear - Nuclear Commercial Liftoff

LA Times - Loan to keep Diablo Canyon nuclear plant open

South Korea Builds Nuclear Plants Quickly and Cheaply

Nuclear Power in South Korea

Westinghouse Electric's Chinese 'Trojan Horse'

Friends of the Earth sues DOE over Billion Dollar Award to Diablo Canyon

Revitalizing America’s Nuclear Energy Supply Chain

Idaho Natl Laboratory - Recommendations to Improve the Nuclear Regulatory Commission Reactor Licensing and Approval Process

5 charts to explain why nuclear power is making a comeback

Podcast - The cost of nuclear - Catalyst w/ Shayle Kann

RIC 2024 Opening Session - Remarks by NRC Chair Christopher T. Hanson

A One-on-One with NRC Chair Christopher Hanson

Bill Gates on Bipartisan Support for Nuclear Power

Podcast w/ PG&E CEO Patricia Poppe

Germany Reacts to Trump's UNGA Speech

#BillGurley #BradGerstner #Bg2Pod

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they discuss the Public Market Volatility, AI Air Pocket, $GOOG Ruling, Search GPT & more Enjoy another episode of BG2.

Enjoy another episode of BG2.

Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(02:27) Public Market Reset 

(13:04) Corporate and Individual Tax Cut Expiration

(16:40) Indicators of Economic Health

(30:40) AI Air Pocket

(46:02) Japan Yen Carry Trade

(50:34) Navigating Market Volatility 

(56:30) $GOOG Ruling & Monopoly Status 

(01:05:21) Search GPT and Evolving AI Landscape

(1:18:17) The Need for Regulatory Clarity in AI

Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com

Follow:

Brad Gerstner @altcap

Bill Gurley @bgurley

BG2 Pod @bg2pod

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they discuss Silicon Valley’s Political 180, META’s Open AI disruption, the importance of a COVID Postmortem and Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, Wiz IPO, FSD 12.5, Crowdstrike, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2.

Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(01:38) The Perceived Political Realignment in Silicon Valley

(18:02) Engagement Between Silicon Valley and Washington

(27:21) Meta's Open Source Strategy (405b)

(47:37) Post-Mortem on the COVID-19 Pandemic

(58:37) Wiz IPO and Acquisitions

(01:03:37) The Impact of AI on Self-Driving Cars

(01:10:33) Lessons from the CrowdStrike Incident

(01:16:11) Spotify's Success under Daniel Ek 

Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com

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Brad Gerstner @altcap https://x.com/altcap

Bill Gurley @bgurley https://x.com/bgurley

BG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2Pod

****

Shownotes

Open Source AI Is the Path Forward - Letter by Mark Zuckerberg

Misha Laskin on Training Data Podcast

Freda Duan tweet on self-driving cars in China

Dr. Jay Bhattacharya on Tetragrammaton with Rick Rubin

#BillGurley #BradGerstner #Bg2Pod

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they discuss the looming presidential election and its impact on public market tech funds, public market dispersion, AI hype versus reality, Calcium CT scans, and more. Enjoy another episode of BG2.

Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(03:50) Public Market Dispersion (Mag 7 + Consumer Stocks)

(22:05) AI Costs vs AI Revenue

(47:25) Calcium CT Scans

Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com

Follow:

Brad Gerstner @altcap

Bill Gurley @bgurley

BG2 Pod @bg2pod

Shownotes:

AI’s $600B Question by David Cahn

Widowmaker Documentary

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they recap Coatue Conference and discuss Elon’s pay package, Tesla's shareholder vote, ISS controversy, AI market trends, OpenAI IPO, Delaware court case, and more. Enjoy another episode of BG2.

Timestamps:

(00:00) Overview of Coatue’s East Meets West Conference

(5:05) AI and Market Trends

(18:17) Insights on Venture Markets and IPOs 

(24:15) Challenges and Opportunities in Going Public 

(30:05) The Case for OpenAI Going Public

(33:03) Challenges and Considerations for IPOs

(35:55) SPECIAL GUEST: Coatue Founder Phillipe Laffont

(39:27) AI Startups Staying Lean

(42:31) AI Agents and the Future of Work

(45:28) Tesla's Shareholder Vote and ISS Controversy 

(50:57) Delaware's Legal Precedent and Corporate Implications 

(58:27) Globalization and Competitive Advantage

Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com

Follow:

Brad Gerstner @altcap

Bill Gurley @bgurley

BG2 Pod @bg2pod

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week, they discuss Pre-IPO market Changes, the reality versus perception of AI's future potential, the state of software, the impact of excess capital in the late-stage market, the importance of capitalism and immigration for the future of the United States, and more. Enjoy another episode of Bg2.

Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(02:16) Letter from Brad’s Mom

(07:28) The Changing Landscape of the Pre-IPO Market

(24:50) AI Hype Cycle

(33:19) Is Software Dead?

(37:03) The Impact of Excess Capital in the Late-Stage Market

(42:18) How AI Spending Affects Investments

(54:52) Opportunities for Investments in the Public Markets

Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com

Follow:

Brad Gerstner @altcap

Bill Gurley @bgurley

BG2 Pod @bg2pod

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week, they discuss OpenAI ChatGPT-4o, Astra, Consumer AI, Enterprise AI, China Tariffs, Trade Regulation, the tech markets, and more. Enjoy another episode of Bg2.

Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(00:40) Open AI Launches GPT-4 Omni

(10:29) Chat GPT-4o Benchmarks

(14:11) Voice as the New GUI

(20:01) Breakout Power of ChatGPT

(22:09) Consumer AI vs Enterprise AI Landscape

(27:51) AI Disruption

(35:45) Regulation & Industrial Policy

(43:47) China Tariffs

(53:15) Tech Market Check

Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com

Follow:

Brad Gerstner @altcap https://x.com/altcap 

Bill Gurley @bgurley https://x.com/bgurley 

BG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2Pod

#BillGurley #BradGerstner #Bg2Pod

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week, joined by Sunny Madra (Head of Groq Cloud) they discuss AI Models, Data Scaling, Enterpise AI, Personal AI, the tech markets, and more. Enjoy another episode of Bg2.

Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(01:10) $META Llama 3

(20:40) Enterprise AI

(36:50) Personal AI

(50:07) $TSLA Earnings Call & Rideshare

(52:10) Tech Check

Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com

Follow:

Brad Gerstner @altcap https://x.com/altcap

Bill Gurley @bgurley https://x.com/bgurley

Sunny Madra @sundeep https://x.com/sundeep

BG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2Pod

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week, they discuss The Great IPO Debate, Tesla Robotaxi vs. Uber, and a Tech Check. Enjoy another episode of Bg2.

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction + Eclipse

(01:56) The Great IPO Debate

(41:33) Tesla Robotaxi vs. Uber

(01:10:27) Market Check

Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com

Follow:

Brad Gerstner @altcap https://twitter.com/altcap 

Bill Gurley @bgurley https://twitter.com/bgurley 

BG2 Pod @bg2pod https://twitter.com/BG2Pod

#BillGurley #BradGerstner #Bg2Pod

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week, they discuss the challenge of forecasting the AI Supercycle, Stargate and the massive AI supercomputer build out,  AI demand overhyped or underhyped, and current market valuations. Enjoy another episode of Bg2.

Timestamps:

(0:00) Intro

(2:49) Demand for Compute Is Virtually Unlimited

(27:53) Everywhere we Look we are building more and bigger Supercomputers 

(35:49) The AI Induced Power Gap & The Need for Nuclear

(50:21) Valuations / Market Check

Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com

Follow:

Brad Gerstner @altcap https://twitter.com/altcap  

Bill Gurley @bgurley https://twitter.com/bgurley 

BG2 Pod @bg2pod https://twitter.com/BG2Pod

Shownotes:

What's next for AI agents ft. LangChain's Harrison Chase: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pBBe1pk8hf4

Tesla FSD Model 12: https://twitter.com/bg2pod/status/1769378291658666226?s=46&t=tiuRwY6s_lj81akJSCmJkw Sam Altman: OpenAI, GPT-5, Sora, Board Saga, Elon Musk, Ilya, Power & AGI | Lex Fridman Podcast #419: Sam Altman: OpenAI, GPT-5, Sora, Board Saga, Elon Musk, Ilya, Power & AGI | Lex Fridman Podcast #419

OpenAI CEO on GPT-4 vs GPT-5 | Sam Altman and Lex Fridman: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJEC0aAjRJE 

Jevons Paradox: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox 

MSFT and OpenAI $100bn supercomputer project: https://twitter.com/theinformation/status/1773798028907811059?s=20

Biden administration on how to generate more electricity to meet massive demand for AI computing: https://twitter.com/axios/status/1774758834952659223?s=20 

Nuclear reactors planned and proposed: https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/current-and-future-generation/plans-for-new-reactors-worldwide.aspx 

U.S. approves $1.5bn loan to restart Michigan nuclear plant: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/27/business/energy-environment/holtec-palisades-nuclear-plant-loan.html 

Josh Wolfe’s talk to Congress: https://twitter.com/wolfejosh/status/1685323817521139712 

Our World in Data - cleanest and safest sources of energy: https://ourworldindata.org/safest-sources-of-energy 

How Regulation killed Supersonic: https://www.heritage.org/transportation/commentary/its-time-let-supersonic-flight-soar-again

Natural gas is stronger in the U.S.: https://www.iea.org/commentaries/natural-gas-is-now-stronger-than-ever-in-the-united-states-power-sector 

Baseload in the U.S. has been flat for many years: https://energytransition.nema.org/baseload-generation/ 

Amazon goes nuclear: https://www.theregister.com/2024/03/04/amazon_acquires_cumulus_nuclear_datacenter/ 

I-95 Bridge reopened in 12 days: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-28/resurrection-of-i-95-in-just-two-weeks-is-dubbed-small-miracle?embedded-checkout=true 

SF cleaned up in a week: https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/sanfran-s-mean-streets-become-clean-streets-for-biden-xi-and-co-20231116-p5ekd0.html 

Texas trumps California as key US energy transition driver:https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/texas-trumps-california-key-us-energy-transition-driver-2023-05-04/ 

Brad’s tweet on CT scan: https://twitter.com/altcap/status/1774919531414368402?s=20

Americans favor more nuclear energy: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/08/18/growing-share-of-americans-favor-more-nuclear-power/ 

Producing new nuclear plants have gone down in France and up in the U.S. tweet: https://twitter.com/cremieuxrecueil/status/1773221106591166946?s=46&t=832RL3Gm0XtyDEuhy-Gkzg 

GenAI company revenue multiples tweet: https://twitter.com/asanwal/status/1772821841578754492?s=46&t=832RL3Gm0XtyDEuhy-Gkzg 

Gurley’s tweet on 60x reduction from top model: https://twitter.com/bgurley/status/1774896120310686003?s=20 

Congress provides record funding for fusion energy:https://www.fusionindustryassociation.org/congress-provides-record-funding-for-fusion-energy/ 

#BillGurley #BradGerstner #Bg2Pod

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week, joined by Bob Mylod, (Chair of Board, Bookings.com & Managing Partner of Annox Capital) they discuss stock compensation, Google Gemini / Apple, TikTok US & the New AI Cold War, MSFT / Inflection & VC Valuations for LLM’s. Enjoy another episode of Bg2.

Timestamps:

(0:00) Intro 

(2:07) Bob Mylod | Stock-Based Compensation

(58:03) Apple's Potential Partnership with Google on AI

(1:04:00) Tiktok The Future of TikTok in the US

(01:12:34) Microsoft's Acquisition of Inflection

(01:18:06) The Durability of LLM Business Models

Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com

Follow:

Brad Gerstner @altcap https://twitter.com/altcap 

Bill Gurley @bgurley https://twitter.com/bgurley 
BG2 Pod @bg2pod https://twitter.com/BG2Pod

Shownotes:

Bookings 2023 Notice of Annual Stockholders’ Meeting and Proxy Statement June 2023 (page 63 for Stock-Based Compensation Expense as a % of net cash provided by operating activities) https://bit.ly/3ISIauw

Michael Mauboussin - Stock-Based Compensation Paper: https://mgstn.ly/4cshBKn

Tom Hearden Tweet: https://bit.ly/4cqCoxQApoorv

Agarwal Tweet: https://bit.ly/3VumL2G

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week, they discuss Tesla’s Full Self-Driving V12 and imitation learning, AI model improvements: open vs. closed, & more. Enjoy another episode of Bg2.

Timestamps:

(0:00) Intro + Phase Shifts

(3:42)Tesla FSD 12 & Imitation Learning

(28:32) AI Model Improvements | Open vs Closed Models

(49:10) Elon Musk Delaware Court Case

(58:30) Macro Market Outlook

Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com

Follow:

Brad Gerstner @altcap https://twitter.com/altcap 

Bill Gurley @bgurley https://twitter.com/bgurley 

BG2 Pod @bg2pod https://twitter.com/BG2PodShownotes:

#BillGurley #BradGerstner #Bg2Pod

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week, they discuss earnings, inflation, interest rates, the impact of AI on Big Tech, NVDA, chips, fabs, Altman’s $7T to meet AI Compute needs, & more. Enjoy another episode of Bg2.

Timestamps:

(0:00) Introduction

(3:14) Earnings / Inflation / Rates

(10:16) Impact of AI on Google / Meta

(32:47) Why not also MSFT/Apple/Amazon?

(57:06) Chips, Fabs, Future Compute Needs

Available on Apple, Spotify, www.linktr.ee/bg2pod

Follow:

Brad Gerstner @altcap https://twitter.com/altcap

Bill Gurley @gurley https://twitter.com/bgurley

BG2 Pod @bg2pod https://twitter.com/BG2Pod

Shownotes:

TSMC founder Morris Chang on the evolution of the semiconductor industry

https://youtu.be/r_8XClnnvIk?si=rAylAfxpJa0kHiNv

#BillGurley #BradGerstner #BG2Pod

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week we are joined by Box Co-Founder & CEO, Aaron Levie. They discussed software valuations, public markets earnings, all things AI and legal immigration. Enjoy another Episode of Bg2.

Available on Apple, Spotify, www.linktr.ee/bg2pod

Follow:

Brad Gerstner @altcap https://twitter.com/altcap

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Aaron Levie @levie https://twitter.com/levie

BG2 Pod @bg2pod https://twitter.com/BG2Pod

The rumors were true. Enjoy another Episode of Bg2.

____________________________________

(0:00) Introduction and discussion on current market trends

(3:12) Main topic: AI and its recent surge in venture capital investing

(14:04) Discussion on the potential issues in AI companies

(25:00) Analysis of public software valuations and their implications

(33:01) Future of investing in tech companies

(38:27) State of startups and challenges in raising capital

(46:37) Comparing the 1999 bubble to the current economic situation

(54:45) Analyzing Javier Milei's Speech at Davos

(1:01:20) Historical examples of the effects of open and closed economies

(1:09:09) Conclusion and farewell

____________________________________

The acceleration of global GDP per capita over centuries highlights the impact of free market capitalism and innovation on human prosperity.

Venture capital investing and the tech industry play a significant role in driving progress and economic growth through fostering innovation and risk-taking by entrepreneurs.

The current venture capital correction and its impact on startups emphasize the importance of adjusting to market realities, such as valuation and capital availability, for long-term success.

#BillGurley #BradGerstner #BG2pod