Podd: Clearer Thinking with Spencer Greenberg

A conversation with a narcissist (with Jacob Skidmore)

18 december 2024 | 91 min

What effects does guaranteed income have on U.S. citizens? (with Eva Vivalt)

11 december 2024 | 72 min

What have we learned about UBI from recent, large-scale studies? What factors contribute to differential attrition in (especially long-term) studies? How much does it cost to run large UBI studies? Where else in the world have major UBI studies been run? What's the difference between "guaranteed income" and UBI? How do people in cash transfer studies tend to spend their money? Should restrictions be placed on what people can spend their study money on? How long does it take to see various effects of UBI or guaranteed income on a large scale? How does guaranteed income affect the nature of work in recipients' lives? How does guaranteed income affect a person's net worth in the long run? What are the effects on well-being? How does topical knowledge affect prediction accuracy in a given area? How good are subject-matter experts at making predictions about the outcome or utility of a study? How can such predictions in aggregate be used to shape future research? To what extent should reseachers express uncertainty when making proposals to policy-makers? How much of an effect does the publishing of academic papers have on the world? What kind of person should try to build a career in academia? How can non-experts assess the rigor and significance of academic papers?

Eva Vivalt is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Economics at the University of Toronto. Dr. Vivalt's main research interests are in investigating stumbling blocks to evidence-based policy decisions, including methodological issues, how evidence is interpreted, and the use of forecasting. Dr. Vivalt is also a principal investigator on three guaranteed income RCTs and a co-founder of the Social Science Prediction Platform, a platform to coordinate the collection of forecasts of research results. Find out more about her on her website, evavivalt.com.

Further reading

"The Impact of Unconditional Cash Transfers on Consumption and Household Balance Sheets: Experimental Evidence from Two US States", by Alexander W. Bartik, Elizabeth Rhodes, David E. Broockman, Patrick K. Krause, Sarah Miller, and Eva Vivalt

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Human evolution and AI evolution (with Dwarkesh Patel)

4 december 2024 | 64 min

Should sex work be a crime? (with Kaytlin Bailey)

27 november 2024 | 81 min

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Why are sex workers treated so badly in the US? What effects do licensing requirements have on sex workers and their customers? How do sex worker rights connect with privacy rights more broadly? In what philosophical principles ought sex worker rights (and their customers' rights) to be grounded? How do sex work laws affect people who aren't sex workers? Is "whore-phobia" the root of all misogyny? Is misogyny built into human nature, or is it learned? How does testicle size affect evolutionary fitness? Must religions necessarily have rules and norms about sexual purity? How do the Abrahamic religions teach sexual purity, and to whom are these lessons taught? Do sex workers have more or fewer STIs than the average "civilian"? If Alice is a sex worker and has had sex with 20 partners, and Bridget is not a sex worker and has also had sex with 20 partners, then which of them is considered to be the more promiscuous of the two? What sorts of tools and processes do sex workers use to screen clients? Are sex workers harmed (psychologically, physically, etc.) more through sex work than the average person is harmed through their work? How common are pimps nowadays? What are the various legal models for sex work around the world? Why does there seem to be a strong connection between sex work and illegal drug use? Why are women more opposed than men to the legalization of sex work? Does legal sex work potentially encourage the objectification of women and thus increase misogyny?

Kaytlin Bailey is the founder and Executive Director of Old Pros, a nonprofit focused on changing the status of sex workers in society. She hosts The Oldest Profession Podcast and is currently touring her award-winning one-woman show Whore's Eye View, a comedic mad dash through 10,000 years of history from a sex worker's perspective. Old Pros sends out a weekly newsletter with a round up of sex worker rights news from around the world, upcoming live events, and new episodes of The Oldest Profession Podcast. Subscribe to that newsletter at oldprosonline.org, or interact on Twitter / X at @oldprosonline. To reach Kaytlin directly, send her an email at [email protected] or message her on Twitter / X at @kaytlinbailey. To find upcoming tour dates for Whore's Eye View, visit whoreseyeview.com.

Further reading

Resources about sex work decriminalization @ oldprosonline.org

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Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
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When does productivity become toxic? (with Israa Nasir)

20 november 2024 | 60 min

A conversation with a sociopath (with M.E. Thomas)

13 november 2024 | 126 min

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Are the terms "psychopath" and "sociopath" interchangeable? Are people suffering from Antisocial Personality Disorder (ASPD) naturally violent? Are people usually born with these psychopathy, sociopathy, ASPD, or other similar personality disorders; or are they caused by environmental factors? To what extent do sociopaths have a sense of self or relatively fixed personality? Are sociopaths easily manipulated? How do shame and guilt differ? What is "gray rage"? To what extent do the primary "dark" personality traits (narcissism, psychopathy, Machiavellianism, and sadism) overlap? From an evolutionary perspective, why might these traits appear in a population? Can (and should) people cooperate altruistically with sociopaths? Why do we treat crimes of passion less harshly than premeditated crimes? (For example, why do people found guilty of sudden, impulsive murder usually receive lighter sentences than people found guilty of premeditated murder?) Are sociopaths more or less impulsive than the average person? How prevalent are antisocial personality disorders? Are sociopaths more likely to commit crimes than the average person? What factors motivate the average person to avoid unethical behaviors, and which of these factors do sociopaths lack? Do sociopaths lie about the same kinds of things as "normies"? Do sociopaths naturally enjoy hurting other people? Are sociopaths able to feel happiness? How do sociopaths' sexual behaviors and orientations differ from normies'? Since the majority of violent crime in the world is perpetrated by young men, is the average young man basically a sociopath or psychopath? How easily can sociopaths identify one another? If someone thinks they might be a sociopath (or have any of the other "dark" personality traits), what should they do? How should sociopaths be integrated into society?

M.E. Thomas is a practicing attorney who has advocated for equal rights and a better understanding of psychopaths since being diagnosed with psychopathy in 2010. She is the author of the book Confessions of a Sociopath: A Life Spent Hiding in Plain Sight. You can find her at sociopathworld.com.

Further reading

PsychopathyIs

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Highs and lows on the road out of the replication crisis (with Brian Nosek)

8 november 2024 | 98 min

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How much more robust have the social sciences become since the beginnings of the replication crisis? What fraction of replication failures indicate that the original result was a false positive? What do we know with relative certainty about human nature? How much of a difference is there between how people behave in a lab setting and how they behave out in the world? Why has there been such a breakdown of trust in the sciences over the past few decades? How can scientists better communicate uncertainty in their findings to the public? To what extent are replication failures a problem in the other sciences? How useful is the Implicit Association Test (IAT)? What does it mean if someone can predict how they'll score on the IAT? How do biases differ from associations? What should (and shouldn't) the IAT be used for? Why do replications often show smaller effect sizes than the original research showed? What is the Lifecycle Journals project?

Brian Nosek co-developed the Implicit Association Test, a method that advanced research and public interest in implicit bias. Nosek co-founded three non-profit organizations: Project Implicit to advance research and education about implicit bias, the Society for the Improvement of Psychological Science to improve the research culture in his home discipline, and the Center for Open Science (COS) to improve rigor, transparency, integrity, and reproducibility across research disciplines. Nosek is Executive Director of COS and a professor at the University of Virginia. Nosek's research and applied interests aim to understand why people and systems produce behaviors that are contrary to intentions and values; to develop, implement, and evaluate solutions to align practices with values; and, to improve research credibility and cultures to accelerate progress. Connect with him on Bluesky or LinkedIn, or learn more about him on the COS website.

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Suffering and the self (with Jay Garfield)

30 oktober 2024 | 71 min

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Why do we suffer? Would we still suffer if we got rid of all craving and aversion? Is pain the same thing as suffering? How is suffering connected to the concept of self? Should people in horrible situations attempt to remove themselves from those environments or try to improve their plights in any way; or should they merely free themselves from suffering by releasing their "craving" for well-being and their "aversion" to misery? Why would the dissolution of the self free someone from suffering? Are we identical to our bodies and/or minds? Is attention the same thing as the self? Is the concept of "no-self" analytical or empirical? How does "flow" differ from distraction? Is it irrational to pursue our own happiness without regard for others? How and where do Buddhist ethics overlap with the ethics taught by (e.g.) Abrahamic religions? What are the roles of meditators in Buddhist monasteries? What do Buddhists believe about god(s)? What do they believe about reincarnation? Is reincarnation different from rebirth? What is the role of the Buddha himself in Buddhism? Can these concepts be understood and/or experienced without meditating or studying Buddhist texts?

Jay L. Garfield is Doris Silbert Professor in the Humanities and Professor of Philosophy and Buddhist Studies at Smith College, Visiting Professor of Buddhist philosophy at Harvard Divinity School, Professor of Philosophy at Melbourne University, and Adjunct Professor of Philosophy at the Central Institute of Higher Tibetan Studies. Garfield’s research addresses topics in the foundations of cognitive science and the philosophy of mind; metaphysics; the history of modern Indian philosophy; topics in ethics, epistemology, and the philosophy of logic; the philosophy of the Scottish enlightenment methodology in cross-cultural interpretation; and topics in Buddhist philosophy, particularly Indo-Tibetan Madhyamaka and Yogācāra. He is the author or editor of over 30 books and over 200 articles, chapters, and reviews. A few of his most recent books include How to Lose Yourself: An Ancient Guide to Letting Go (with Maria Heim and Robert Sharf 2024), Losing Ourselves: Learning to Live without a Self (2022), and Knowing Illusion: Bringing a Tibetan Debate into Contemporary Discourse (with the Yakherds 2021), and Buddhist Ethics: A Philosophical Exploration (2021). Learn more about him at his website, jaygarfield.org.

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Choosing your strategy (with Seth Godin)

23 oktober 2024 | 55 min

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What are the differences between tactics and strategies? Is the speed of growth of a company the main thing business school graduates should consider when trying to figure out where to launch their careers? How much optimism or pessimism should strategies include? How can we gain footholds for change in systems that are very strongly self-reinforcing? Is it possible to change a system's side effects without changing its purpose? What are the differences between strategies and visions? Is it better to follow a map or a compass? If you buy a lottery ticket and win big, was it a good decision? What are some of the most common mistakes leaders make when developing a strategy? How simple or complex should strategies be? What are the benefits of being able to speak a strategy out loud? How can leaders know when to modify or even abandon a strategy? How can entrepreneurs know if their starting strategy is a good one? To what extent is creativity required for good strategy design? What are the three big principles of marketing? Is all marketing unethical? Is it unethical to market a placebo? How are status and affiliation related? What is the single most important thing a team can do when developing a strategy?

Seth Godin is an entrepreneur, best-selling author, speaker, and teacher. In addition to launching one of the most popular blogs in the world, he has written 21 best-selling books, including The Dip, Linchpin, Purple Cow, Tribes, and What To Do When It's Your Turn (And It's Always Your Turn). His book, This Is Marketing, was an instant bestseller in countries around the world. His new book, out in 2024, is This Is Strategy. Though renowned for his writing and speaking, Seth also founded two companies: Squidoo and Yoyodyne (acquired by Yahoo!). He's credited as the inventor of email marketing (the good kind). He has given five TED talks, including two that rank among the most popular of all time. In 2013, Seth was one of just three professionals inducted into the Direct Marketing Hall of Fame; and in 2018, he was inducted into the Marketing Hall of Fame as well. He might be the only person in both. Learn more about him at his website, sethgodin.com, read his blog posts at seths.blog, or pick up his most recent book, This Is Strategy: Make Better Plans.

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How to be productive without burning out (with Anne-Laure Le Cunff)

16 oktober 2024 | 77 min

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What is "mindful" productivity? Is impostor syndrome linked to main character syndrome? Must increased productivity always come with an increased risk of burn-out? What mistakes do people most commonly make when trying to improve their productivity? Is the best productivity system also the most minimal? What is "plus-minus-next"? How can we use our time more efficiently? What does it mean to have an "experimental" mindset? How many of our passions do we discover at first sight? What are the differences between habits and routines? What are some good ways to set up self-experiments? How important is quantification in self-experiments? How often should we expect self-experiments to yield useful results? What does it look like to exhibit "systematic" curiosity?

Anne-Laure Le Cunff is an award-winning neuroscientist, entrepreneur, and writer. She is the founder of Ness Labs, where her weekly newsletter about mindful productivity and systematic curiosity is read by more than 100,000 curious minds. Her research at King’s College London’s Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology, & Neuroscience focuses on the psychology and neuroscience of lifelong learning, curiosity, and adaptability. Her upcoming book, Tiny Experiments, is a transformative guide for living a more experimental life, turning uncertainty into curiosity, and carving a path of self-discovery. Previously, Le Cunff worked at Google as a global lead for digital health. Her work has been featured in Rolling Stone, Forbes, the Financial Times, WIRED, and more. She serves as an advisor for the Applied Neuroscience Association and the All Party Parliamentary Group for Entrepreneurship on themes of mental health at work. Based in London, she continues in her writing and research to explore the intersection of neuroscience and personal development. Learn more about her research, and sign up for her newsletter, at nesslabs.com.

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Does simply giving people money truly enable them to escape poverty? (with Miriam Laker)

9 oktober 2024 | 60 min

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Should we give cash directly to people living in poverty? Why do most nonprofits prefer to give services rather than cash? What should be done if the things that a person really needs aren't purchasable near them? (For example, what if a person needs a vaccine that isn't available in their country?) Can most people be trusted to spend money wisely? Are single lump sum transfers more effective than recurring transfers on monthly or yearly bases? What are the most common uses to which recipients put their cash transfers? What are the most common kinds of businesses started by entrepreneurially-minded recipients? What kinds of communities does GiveDirectly serve? How do cash transfers affect social dynamics in communities? What are the biggest challenges related to giving cash transfers? What is the evidence that cash transfers are more effective than other kinds of aid? How are the short- and long-term effects of cash transfers measured? How long do beneficial effects tend to last? Are recipients ever suspicious of GiveDirectly's motives? How often do people opt out of receiving a cash transfer? How does GiveDirectly explain to people why they (and not people in neighboring communities) were chosen to receive aid? How do recipients see their own financial situations? Do they usually see themselves as living in poverty?

Dr. Miriam Laker is the Director of Research at GiveDirectly. In her role, she oversees the generation of robust evidence on cash transfer implementation and impacts. She is an advocate for unconditional cash transfers as a tool to end global extreme poverty. She is also a board member of the CALPNetwork and was voted one of Uganda's top 40 women under the age of 40. Connect with her on LinkedIn. Learn more about and connect with GiveDirectly on Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook, Instagram, YouTube, or their website, givedirectly.org.

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Who really controls US elections? (with Bradley Tusk)

2 oktober 2024 | 77 min

Communities of belief vs. communities of chemistry (with Tyler Alterman)

25 september 2024 | 95 min

Everyone — including you! — should host more events (with Nick Gray)

19 september 2024 | 81 min

Read the full transcript here.

Why should people host more events than they do right now? Under what conditions shouldn't a person host more events? Do these suggestions apply to introverts? What's the best RSVP tool? What is "double opt-in"? What's the ideal length of time for a social event? What kinds of ice-breaker activities, if any, should hosts use? What are the primary factors that affect people's enjoyment of an event? What does it mean to "compress and release" in an event or party context? Which nights of the week are best for hosting events? When should hosts end the event? What should hosts do if people's energy or enjoyment seems to be flagging? Should everyone get a name tag? How should hosts follow up after an event? What is "the strength of weak ties"? Should events be used as business networking tools? How can someone meet more interesting people?

Nick Gray is an entrepreneur and best-selling author living in Austin, Texas. He started and sold two successful companies: Flight Display Systems and Museum Hack. Nick is the author of The 2-Hour Cocktail Party, a step-by-step handbook that teaches you how to build big relationships by hosting small gatherings. Over 75,000 people have watched his TEDx talk about why he hates most museums. He's been featured in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, and New York Magazine, which called him a host of "culturally significant parties." Connect with him on Instagram, Twitter, Facebook, YouTube, LinkedIn, or TikTok; sign up for his newsletter; or learn more about him on his website, nickgray.net.

Further reading

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What do we know for sure about human psychology? (with Simine Vazire)

11 september 2024 | 81 min

Read the full transcript here.

How much progress has psychology made on the things that matter most to us? What are some psychological findings we feel pretty confident are true? How much consensus is there about the Big 5 personality traits? What are the points of disagreement about the Big 5? Are traits the best way of thinking about personality? How consistent are the Big 5 traits across cultures? How accurately do people self-report their own personality? When are psychophysical measures more or less useful than self-report measures? How much credence should we lend to the concept of cognitive dissonance? What's the next phase of improvement in the social sciences? Has replicability improved among the social sciences in, say, the last decade? What percent of papers in top journals contain fraud? What percent of papers in top journals are likely unreplicable? Is it possible to set the bar for publishing too high? How can universities maintain a high level of quality in their professors and researchers without pressuring them so hard to publish constantly? What is the simpliest valid analysis for a given study?

Simine Vazire's research examines whether and how science self-corrects, focusing on psychology. She studies the research methods and practices used in psychology, as well as structural systems in science, such as peer review. She also examines whether we know ourselves, and where our blind spots are in our self-knowledge. She teaches research methods. She is editor-in-chief of Psychological Science (as of 1 Jan, 2024) and co-founder (with Brian Nosek) of the Society for the Improvement of Psychological Science. Learn more about her and her work at simine.com.

Further reading

"How Replicable Are Links Between Personality Traits and Consequential Life Outcomes? The Life Outcomes of Personality Replication Project", by Christopher J. Soto
"Machine learning uncovers the most robust self-report predictors of relationship quality across 43 longitudinal couples studies", by Joel, Eastwick, Allison, and Wolf
- Note from Spencer: I misremembered this study as trying to predict breakups when actually the variable they found they couldn't predict is change in relationship-quality over time. The authors said that "relationship-quality change (i.e., increases or decreases in relationship quality over the course of a study) was largely unpredictable from any combination of self-report variables".

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Pattern-breaking ideas, and startups that change the world (with Mike Maples)

4 september 2024 | 78 min

Decision-making and play-testing (with Dan Epstein)

28 augusti 2024 | 70 min

Read the full transcript here.

What sorts of decisions are we making without even realizing we're making them? Are people aware of their own values? Do they know how those values rank relative to each other? What are all the various parties, interests, and values that have to be addressed and balanced when making decisions in a healthcare context? What does it mean to "play-test" yourself? What are the best strategies for giving feedback? How much energy is required to make various kinds of decisions? How can we practice and get better at decision-making? What is "tabletop exercising"? What are the most effective ways to bring other people into the decision-making process? What are some aspects of games that ought to be put to good use in non-game contexts? Why are educational games usually neither fun nor educational? How can game design features be used in ways that avoid turning metrics into targets? How can we make better decisions about how to divvy up our time?

Dr. Dan Epstein is a practicing medical doctor and academic PhD focusing on decision-making and game design. Dan is the director of The Long Game Project, which helps businesses and leaders improve strategy and decision-making with games and tabletop exercises. Dan is also an ambassador for Giving What We Can, a community of people who pledge to donate a portion of their income to effective causes; and he's a member of High Impact Athletes, a community of current and past athletes who do the same. Follow him on Twitter at @drdanepstein, email him at [email protected], connect with him on LinkedIn, or learn more about his work at longgameproject.org.

Further reading

The Long Game Project newsletter
The Long Game Project YouTube channel
Foundations of Tabletop Exercising: Design Exercises for Real Impact — a free course taught by Dan

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The path to utopia (with Nick Bostrom)

24 augusti 2024 | 64 min

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Why do there seem to be more dystopias than utopias in our collective imagination? Why is it easier to find agreement on what we don't want than on what we do want? Do we simply not know what we want? What are "solved worlds", "plastic worlds", and "vulnerable worlds"? Given today's technologies, why aren't we working less than we potentially could? Can humanity reach a utopia without superintelligent AI? What will humans do with their time, and/or how will they find purpose in life, if AIs take over all labor? What are "quiet" values? With respect to AI, how important is it to us that our conversation partners be conscious? Which factors will likely make the biggest differences in terms of moving the world towards utopia or dystopia? What are some of the most promising strategies for improving global coordination? How likely are we to end life on earth? How likely is it that we're living in a simulation?

Nick Bostrom is a Swedish-born philosopher with a background in theoretical physics, computational neuroscience, logic, and artificial intelligence, along with philosophy. He's been a Professor at Oxford University, where he served as the founding Director of the Future of Humanity Institute from 2005 until its closure in April 2024. He is currently the founder and Director of Research of the Macrostrategy Research Initiative. Bostrom is the author of over 200 publications, including Anthropic Bias (2002), Global Catastrophic Risks (2008), Human Enhancement (2009), and Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies (2014). His work has pioneered many of the ideas that frame current thinking about humanity's future (such as the concept of an existential risk, the simulation argument, the vulnerable world hypothesis, the unilateralist's curse, etc.), while some of his recent work concerns the moral status of digital minds. His most recent book, Deep Utopia: Life and Meaning in a Solved World, was published in March of 2024. Learn more about him at his website, nickbostrom.com.

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Physical limits and the long-term future (with Anders Sandberg)

14 augusti 2024 | 104 min

Becoming a goat to avoid existential dread (with Thomas Thwaites)

7 augusti 2024 | 113 min

AI apocalypticism vs. AI optimism (with Adam Russell)

1 augusti 2024 | 65 min

Read the full transcript here.

What is "apocaloptimism"? Is there a middle ground between apocalypticism and optimism? What are the various camps in the AI safety and ethics debates? What's the difference between "working on AI safety" and "building safe AIs"? Can our social and technological coordination problems be solved only by AI? What is "qualintative" research? What are some social science concepts that can aid in the development of safe and ethical AI? What should we do with things that don't fall neatly into our categories? How might we benefit by shifting our focus from individual intelligence to collective intelligence? What is cognitive diversity? What are "AI Now", "AI Next", and "AI in the Wild"?

Adam Russell is the Director of the AI Division at the University of Southern California's Information Sciences Institute (ISI). Prior to ISI, Adam was the Chief Scientist at the University of Maryland's Applied Research Laboratory for Intelligence and Security, or ARLIS, and was an adjunct professor at the University of Maryland's Department of Psychology. He was the Principal Investigator for standing up the INFER (Integrated Forecasting and Estimates of Risk) forecasting platform. Adam's almost 20-year career in applied research and national security has included serving as a Program Manager at the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA), then as a Program Manager at the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) (where he was known as the DARPAnthropologist) and in May 2022 was appointed as the Acting Deputy Director to help stand up the Advanced Research Projects Agency for Health (ARPA-H). Adam has a BA in cultural anthropology from Duke University and a D.Phil. in social anthropology from Oxford University, where he was a Rhodes Scholar. He has also represented the United States in rugby at the international level, having played for the US national men's rugby team (the Eagles).

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Should we trust papers published in top social science journals? (with Daniel Lakens)

24 juli 2024 | 102 min

Is psychology the same across cultures? (with Joseph Henrich)

17 juli 2024 | 68 min

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What are "WEIRD" cultures? What percentage of the world's population is WEIRD? Why do WEIRD cultures tend to use analytic thinking (as opposed to the wholistic thinking used in non-WEIRD cultures)? Does school make you more intelligent or merely more knowledgeable? Do individualistic cultures tend to innovate more than collectivistic cultures? How does moral reasoning differ between WEIRD and non-WEIRD cultures? Is the world becoming more WEIRD? How diverse are non-WEIRD cultures?

Joseph Henrich is currently the Ruth Moore Professor of Biological Anthropology in the Department of Human Evolutionary Biology at Harvard University. Before moving to Harvard, he was a professor of both Economics and Psychology at the University of British Columbia for nearly a decade, where he held the Canada Research Chair in Culture, Cognition, and Coevolution. His research deploys evolutionary theory to understand how human psychology gives rise to cultural evolution and how this has shaped our species' genetic evolution. Using insights generated from this approach, Professor Henrich has explored a variety of topics, including economic decision-making, social norms, fairness, religion, marriage, prestige, cooperation, and innovation. He's conducted long-term anthropological fieldwork in Peru, Chile, and in the South Pacific, as well as having spearheaded several large comparative projects. In 2016, he published The Secret of Our Success (Princeton) and in 2020, The WEIRDest People in the World: How the West became psychologically peculiar and particularly prosperous (FSG). Learn more about his work here, or follow him on Twitter / X at @JoHenrich.

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Spencer on The 80,000 Hours Podcast discussing money & happiness and hype vs. value (with Rob Wiblin)

10 juli 2024 | 154 min

Concrete actions anyone can take to help improve AI safety (with Kat Woods)

3 juli 2024 | 60 min

What do socialism and effective altruism have in common? (with Garrison Lovely)

26 juni 2024 | 71 min

Raising our happiness baseline (with Sasha Chapin)

19 juni 2024 | 81 min

Worldviews, altruism, and embracing variance (with Emmett Shear)

12 juni 2024 | 80 min

Two things shape the course of your life: luck and your decisions (with Annie Duke)

5 juni 2024 | 86 min

Read the full transcript here.

Should people spend more time becoming better decision-makers? What are the main things that determine how our lives turn out? What's wrong with pro / con lists? When should we deviate from making decisions based on expected value calculations? What kinds of uncertainty might we encounter in the decision-making process? Are explicit decision calculations self-defeating? How similar is intuitive decision-making to decision-making that's based on calculations? How useful are heuristics? How can we know which decisions are significant enough to warrant calculations? What makes a decision hard? What's the omission / commission bias? What lessons can we learn from monkeys and pedestals? Should decision-making strategies be taught in primary and secondary schools?

Annie Duke is an author, speaker, and consultant in the decision-making space, as well as Special Partner focused on Decision Science at First Round Capital Partners, a seed stage venture fund. Her latest book, Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away, was released in 2022 from Portfolio, a Penguin Random House imprint. Her previous book, Thinking in Bets, is a national bestseller. As a former professional poker player, she has won more than $4 million in tournament poker, has won a World Series of Poker bracelet, and is the only woman to have won the World Series of Poker Tournament of Champions and the NBC National Poker Heads-Up Championship. She is the co-founder of The Alliance for Decision Education, a non-profit whose mission is to improve lives by empowering students through decision skills education. Connect with her on Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, LinkedIn or via her website, AnnieDuke.com; or subscribe to her newsletter on Substack.

Further reading

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Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
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What we know and don't know about nutrition (with Gil Carvalho)

29 maj 2024 | 85 min

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How do we know what's true in nutrition? Why aren't nutrition studies seemingly as "definitive" as (e.g.) physics experiments often seem to be? What is the "hierarchy of evidence"? Why is there such a disconnect between the kinds of evidence that actually seem to persuade people and the kinds of evidence that scientists view as valid and meaningful? How can we talk about specific foods in ways that avoid labelling them as always good or always bad? Is the Mediterranean diet good for anyone and everyone? Is it better than all other known dietary patterns? Are there healthy ways to do (e.g.) low-carb, high-carb, low-fat, high-fat, and other similar diet types? What do we know about the effects of ketogenic diets? What do we know about the effects of meat-only diets? Are saturated fats always bad? How should we think about mechanistic evidence given for or against a particular food or diet? How much protein should we consume every day? Should we universally reduce our sugar intake? To what extent is excess body fat bad? Since BMI is much criticized, what are the best measures of health for people with excess body fat? Should we avoid blood sugar spikes throughout the day? What percent of people tend to re-gain lost weight after concluding temporary diets? Is caloric intake really the only factor for weight gain or loss? Is the mistrust of nutritionists justified?

Gil Carvalho, MD PhD is a physician, research scientist, science communicator, speaker, and writer. Dr. Carvalho trained as a medical doctor in the University of Lisbon, in his native Portugal, and later obtained a PhD in Biology from the California Institute of Technology. He has published peer-reviewed medical research spanning the fields of genetics, molecular biology, nutrition, behavior, aging, and neuroscience. In parallel with his research career, Dr. Carvalho also has a passion for science communication. He directs and hosts Nutrition Made Simple, which aims to convey fundamental nutrition concepts to a general audience via educational videos. Learn more about him here, and follow him on YouTube, Twitter / X, and Instagram.

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Measuring everything that matters (with Doug Hubbard)

22 maj 2024 | 73 min

What happens when you follow 100 self-help books to the letter? (with Kristen Meinzer)

15 maj 2024 | 76 min

Aligning society with our deepest values and sources of meaning (with Joe Edelman)

8 maj 2024 | 70 min

Read the full transcript here.

What are the best ways to define "values" and "meaning"? How can democratic processes harness people's intrinsic values and sources of meaning to increase their agency, cooperation, participation, equality, etc.? To what extent do political rivals — or even the bitterest of political enemies — actually value many of the same things? Might we be able to use AIs as "neutral" third-party mediators to help reduce political polarization, especially on an interpersonal level? How can we transform our personal values and sources of meaning into positive, shared visions for society? Are markets inherently antisocial? Or are they just easily made to be so? Companies frequently invoke our deepest needs and values as a bait-and-switch to sell us their goods and services; but since there must actually be demand to have those deep needs met and those deep values realized, why do companies so rarely attempt to supply goods and services that address those things directly? Assuming there actually is a lot of overlap in intrinsic values and sources of meaning across individuals and across groups, why do we still have such a hard time developing shared visions for society?

Joe Edelman is a philosopher, sociologist, and entrepreneur. He invented the meaning-based metrics used at CouchSurfing, Facebook, and Apple, and co-founded the Center for Humane Technology and the Meaning Alignment Institute. His biggest contribution is a definition of "human values" that's precise enough to create product metrics, aligned ML models, and values-based democratic structures. Follow him on Twitter / X at @edelwax, email him at [email protected], or learn more about him and the Meaning Alignment Institute (@meaningaligned on Twitter / X).

Further reading

"OpenAI x DFT: The First Moral Graph" by Joe Edelman and Oliver Klingefjord — "Beyond Constitutional AI; Our first trial with 500 Americans; How democratic processes can generate an LLM we can trust."
"Replica Theory" by Spencer Greenberg
Joe's GPT bots for exploring your personal values

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Separating quantum computing hype from reality (with Scott Aaronson)

1 maj 2024 | 79 min

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What exactly is quantum computing? How much should we worry about the possibility that quantum computing will break existing cryptography tools? When will a quantum computer with enough horsepower to crack RSA likely appear? On what kinds of tasks will quantum computers likely perform better than classical computers? How legitimate are companies that are currently selling quantum computing solutions? How can scientists help to fight misinformation and misunderstandings about quantum computing? To what extent should the state of the art be exaggerated with the aim of getting people excited about the possibilities the technology might afford and encouraging them to invest in research or begin a career in the field? Is now a good time to go into the field (especially compared to other similar options, like going into the booming AI field)?

Scott Aaronson is Schlumberger Chair of Computer Science at the University of Texas at Austin and founding director of its Quantum Information Center, currently on leave at OpenAI to work on theoretical foundations of AI safety. He received his bachelor's from Cornell University and his PhD from UC Berkeley. Before coming to UT Austin, he spent nine years as a professor in Electrical Engineering and Computer Science at MIT. Aaronson's research in theoretical computer science has focused mainly on the capabilities and limits of quantum computers. His first book, Quantum Computing Since Democritus, was published in 2013 by Cambridge University Press. He received the National Science Foundation's Alan T. Waterman Award, the United States PECASE Award, the Tomassoni-Chisesi Prize in Physics, and the ACM Prize in Computing; and he is a Fellow of the ACM and the AAAS. Find out more about him at scottaaronson.blog.

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Should we pause AI development until we're sure we can do it safely? (with Joep Meindertsma)

24 april 2024 | 61 min

What should the Effective Altruism movement learn from the SBF / FTX scandal? (with Will MacAskill)

15 april 2024 | 122 min

Why are so many people experiencing homelessness in big cities in the U.S., and what can be done to help? (with Kevin Adler)

10 april 2024 | 116 min

Read the full transcript here.

How big of a problem is homelessness in the US? How many people in large cities like New York City or Los Angeles are unhoused? What's the best language to use when discussing this issue? How is "homelessness" defined? We usually don't label people without food or water as "foodless" or "waterless"; so why do we label people without homes as "homeless"? Why do we so often look away from the problem, both literally and figuratively? What are the most common events or circumstances that cause people to lose their housing options? What does research show about how unhoused people actually spend their money? What percentage of an average city's unhoused population is represented by the "visible" portion, the people we see on street corners or in tent camps? What percent of unhoused people struggle with mental health problems or substance abuse? What's the average life expectancy of an unhoused person? How much do governments (local, state, and/or federal) spend on homelessness annually? What's the best predictor of whether or not a person will suffer from chronic homelessness? What help — from government institutions, religious organizations, nonprofits, etc. — is available to unhoused people? How hard is it to meet your basic needs when you don't have a place to live? What should we do about unhoused people who refuse help or treatment for mental illnesses or substance abuse? Which nonprofits are working on homelessness? And what kinds of impacts have they made? What interventions are actually effective at solving homelessness on a large scale? What mistakes have the political left and right (in the US) made as they've tried to address homelessness? Demographically speaking, what kinds of people tend to make up unhoused populations in the US?

Kevin F. Adler is a social entrepreneur, sociologist, and author who never learned the word "stranger", and tries to live accordingly. Currently, he is the Founder-In-Residence and Chairman of the Board of Miracle Messages, a nonprofit organization that helps people experiencing homelessness rebuild their social support systems and financial security through family reunification services, a phone buddy program, and the first basic income pilot for unhoused individuals in the US. He is also the bestselling author of When We Walk By: Forgotten Humanity, Broken Systems, and the Role We Can Each Play in Ending Homelessness in America, which Publishers Weekly called "a must-read for anyone interested in solving the problem of homelessness." Kevin's pioneering work on homelessness and "relational poverty" as an overlooked form of poverty has been featured in the New York Times, Washington Post, PBS NewsHour, The Guardian, LA Times, and in his TED Talk. Motivated by his late mother's work teaching at underserved adult schools and nursing homes, and his late uncle's 30 years living on the streets, Kevin believes in a future where everyone is seen as invaluable and interconnected. Learn more about Kevin and his work at his website, kevinfadler.com, follow him on Instagram at @kevinfadler, or email him at [email protected].

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Common body language mistakes and how to avoid making them (with Blake Eastman)

4 april 2024 | 91 min

True things, useful things, and the differences between them (with Derek Sivers)

27 mars 2024 | 75 min

Should we widen our moral circles to include animals, insects, and AIs? (with Jeff Sebo)

20 mars 2024 | 74 min

Read the full transcript here.

How did we end up with factory farming? How many animals do we kill every year in factory farms? When we consider the rights of non-human living things, we tend to focus mainly on the animal kingdom, and in particular on relatively larger, more complex animals; but to what extent should insects, plants, fungi, and even single-celled organisms deserve our moral consideration? Do we know anything about what it's like (or not) to be an AI? To what extent is the perception of time linked to the speed at which one's brain processes information? What's the difference between consciousness and sentience? Should an organism be required to have consciousness and/or sentience before we'll give it our moral consideration? What evidence do we have that various organisms and/or AIs are conscious? What do we know about the evolutionary function of consciousness? What's the "rebugnant conclusion"? What might it mean to "harm" an AI? What can be done by the average person to move the needle on these issues? What should we say to people who think all of this is ridiculous? What is Humean constructivism? What do all of the above considerations imply about abortion? Do we (or any organisms or AIs) have free will? How likely is it that panpsychism is true?

Jeff Sebo is Associate Professor of Environmental Studies; Affiliated Professor of Bioethics, Medical Ethics, Philosophy, and Law; Director of the Animal Studies M.A. Program; Director of the Mind, Ethics, and Policy Program; and Co-Director of the Wild Animal Welfare Program at New York University. He is the author of Saving Animals, Saving Ourselves (2022) and co-author of Chimpanzee Rights (2018) and Food, Animals, and the Environment (2018). He is also an executive committee member at the NYU Center for Environmental and Animal Protection, a board member at Minding Animals International, an advisory board member at the Insect Welfare Research Society, a senior research fellow at the Legal Priorities Project, and a mentor at Sentient Media.

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How to have a positive impact with your career (with Benjamin Hilton)

13 mars 2024 | 86 min

Spencer's takeaways after 200 episodes (with Spencer Greenberg)

6 mars 2024 | 51 min

Psychological change in a single session (with Jessica Schleider)

28 februari 2024 | 68 min

Read the full transcript here.

Is it possible to change someone's life with a really short psychological intervention? What features do turning points in people's lives tend to share in common? What single-session interventions can work well for depression, anxiety, and other mental health issues? What expectations should reasonably be held in advance of a single-session intervention? By what mechanisms do these interventions spark the desire for change in participants? How useful is qualitative research in the social sciences? What can single-session interventions accomplish that longer-term interventions can't? Do single-session interventions for teens work equally well for adults, and vice versa? Are some people more prone to experiencing turning points in their lives than others?

Jessica Schleider is Associate Professor of Psychology at Northwestern University, where she directs the Lab for Scalable Mental Health. Schleider completed her PhD in clinical psychology at Harvard University, her doctoral internship in clinical and community psychology at Yale School of Medicine, and her BA in psychology at Swarthmore College. Her research on brief, scalable interventions for youth depression and anxiety has been recognized via numerous awards, including a National Institutes of Health Director's Early Independence Award; the Association for Behavioral and Cognitive Therapies (ABCT) President's New Researcher Award; and Forbes's "30 Under 30 in Healthcare." Learn more about her work at her lab website, schleiderlab.org.

Further reading

Project YES: free, anonymous, brief, self-guided mental health tools for teens
Little Treatments, Big Effects: How to Build Meaningful Moments that Can Transform Your Mental Health, by Jessica Schleider

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Academic group think, free speech norms, and the psychology of time (with Anne Wilson)

21 februari 2024 | 99 min

How can Stoicism improve your life? (with Bill Irvine)

14 februari 2024 | 82 min

Read the full transcript here.

Why is Stoicism important and useful today? What are the main ideas of Stoicism? How can you tell if you're "living well"? And if you're not living well, then how can you move yourself in that direction? How can we learn to accept and embrace life as it comes without losing our desire to improve ourselves and the world around us? Do people vary in the degree to which Stoic practices might be beneficial for them? What's the relationship between Stoicism and CBT? What do Stoics have to say about the value or disvalue of emotions? Has Stoicism changed much since its inception? What does it mean to be a "reasonable" person? What are some clear signs that a person is a thinker or a feeler? How might we modify social media and/or ourselves so that our cognitive biases can't as easily be weaponized for political or economic ends? It's easy to see cognitive biases in others; but how can we learn to see them in ourselves?

William B. Irvine is emeritus professor of philosophy at Wright State University in Dayton, Ohio, USA. He is the author of eight books that have been translated into more than twenty languages. His A Guide to the Good Life: The Ancient Art of Stoic Joy played a key role in the Stoic renaissance that has taken place in recent years. His subsequent Stoic Challenge: A Philosopher's Guide to Becoming Tougher, Calmer, and More Resilient provides a strategy for dealing, in proper Stoic manner, with the setbacks we experience in daily living. He is currently at work on a book about thinking critically, but with an open mind, in the age of the internet.

Further reading

The Enchiridion, by Epictetus
Thinking Fast and Slow, by Daniel Kahneman
- Spencer's note: The chapter on social priming should be discounted because it is about research by other people that has not replicated.

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Is there a grand unified theory of everyone? (with Michael Muthukrishna)

8 februari 2024 | 75 min

The alternate histories and possible futures of nuclear weapons (with Carl Robichaud)

2 februari 2024 | 78 min

How can AIs know what we want if we don't even know? (with Geoffrey Irving)

24 januari 2024 | 80 min

Schemas, goals, values, and the pursuit of happiness (with Jeff Perron)

17 januari 2024 | 87 min

Read the full transcript here.

What does it mean to have conflicts between our schemas and our values? What is schema therapy? How do schema therapy's claims differ from the "common sense" view that we develop tools for interacting with the world in childhood? How do our "inner critic" and "vulnerable child" connect to our schemas? How do these things differ from the IFS (Internal Family Systems) model of psychotherapy? How do these things map onto Buddhism, Stoicism, and other religious or philosophical traditions? What are the values that lead to a life of happiness? Why are teachings about embracing impermanence and reducing craving found in ancient religious and philosophical traditions but not in modern psychology? And, conversely, why are practices for building "flow" and healthy self-esteem present in modern psychology but not in ancient religious and philosophical traditions?

Jeff Perron is a Clinical Psychologist and Author of The Psychology of Happiness, a Substack with over 15,000 subscribers. He writes detailed guides that explain evidence-based concepts associated with mental well-being and happiness. In his clinical work, he has spent years helping professionals align their lives more closely with their goals and values, supporting them in moving away from unnecessary suffering and towards meaning and fulfillment. Dr. Perron also holds an MBA from Wilfrid Laurier University and in the past has worked in the corporate strategy world. He holds a dual research-clinical PhD in Clinical Psychology from the University of Ottawa and is a Clinical Associate of the Ottawa Institute of CBT.

Further reading

"Values, Practices, and Behaviors Associated with Happiness (a life of relative equanimity, meaning, fulfillment, health, and positive engagement)" by Jeff Perron

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Cognitive Behavioral Therapy and beyond (with David Burns)

10 januari 2024 | 141 min

Read the full transcript here.

What was therapy like in the years leading up to the advent of CBT? Has CBT now been over-sold? How does CBT differ from "the power of positive thinking"? How can therapists who use CBT avoid invalidating clients' feelings? When, if ever, should people listen to their negative thoughts? To what extent can a person's good qualities contribute to their depression? Can empathy be learned? Is it possible to cure depression in a single psychotherapy session? What is TEAM-CBT? Is exposure therapy cruel? What are some strategies for silencing the voices in our heads that lead to depression, anxiety, and other negative mental states?

David Burns is Adjunct Clinical Professor Emeritus of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences at the Stanford University School of Medicine, where he is involved in research and teaching. He has previously served as Acting Chief of Psychiatry at the Presbyterian / University of Pennsylvania Medical Center (1988) and Visiting Scholar at the Harvard Medical School (1998), and is certified by the National Board of Psychiatry and Neurology. He has received numerous awards, including the A. E. Bennett Award for his research on brain chemistry, the Distinguished Contribution to Psychology through the Media Award, and the Outstanding Contributions Award from the National Association of Cognitive-Behavioral Therapists. He has been named Teacher of the Year three times from the class of graduating residents at Stanford University School of Medicine, and feels especially proud of this award. In addition to his academic research, Dr. Burns has written a number of popular books on mood and relationship problems. His best-selling book, Feeling Good: The New Mood Therapy, has sold over 4 million copies in the United States, and many more worldwide. When he is not crunching statistics for his research, he can be found teaching his famous Tuesday evening psychotherapy training group for Stanford students and community clinicians, or giving workshops for mental health professionals throughout the United States and Canada. Learn more about him at feelinggood.com.

Further reading

Feeling Great: The Revolutionary New Treatment for Depression and Anxiety by David Burns

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There are shrinks, and then there are SUPER-shrinks (with Daryl Chow)

3 januari 2024 | 79 min

Bringing conspiracy theorists back from the brink (with Jesse Richardson)

28 december 2023 | 70 min

Read the full transcript here.

Have conspiracy theories been more prevalent, more persuasive, or more convoluted in the last few decades than at other points in human history? Is the presence of conspiracy theorists a feature of every society? The phrase "conspiracy theory" usually implies a false theory, even though some are eventually proven to be true; so how can we update our language to better differentiate between disconfirmed and not-yet-confirmed conspiracy theories? How can people who've really gone down a conspiracy theory rabbit hole come back back from the brink? More generally, what conditions need to be met for a person to change their mind about anything? What are the key motivators of conspiratorial thinking? Why do so many conspiracy theories incorporate strong antisemitic elements? To what degree are conspiracy theorists swayed by arguments from the requisite number of co-conspirators in a conspiracy? How should people research a conspiracy theory? Which personality traits are correlated with conspiratorial thinking? What's a good definition of wisdom? And how could wisdom help us combat the epistemic crisis through which we seem to be living right now? When, if ever, is it useful to approach a topic adversarially? Which would better mitigate the epistemic crisis: education reform or cultural change?

Jesse Richardson is an internationally award-winning creative director and the founder of the nonprofit The School of Thought, which is dedicated to promoting critical thinking, reason, and understanding. The Creative Commons resources The School of Thought has produced have so far reached over 30 million people and are being used in thousands of schools, universities, and companies worldwide. Their latest project is The Conspiracy Test, which is a gamified way to help increase healthy skepticism about conspiracy theories. It can been accessed for free at theconspiracytest.org. Learn more about Jesse and The School of Thought at schoolofthought.org.

Resources:

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Simulacra levels, moral mazes, and low-hanging fruit (with Zvi Mowshowitz)

20 december 2023 | 89 min

Effectively encouraging people to give more (with Josh Greene)

15 december 2023 | 88 min

Read the full transcript here.

How can people be encouraged in ways that are more natural and less manipulative to increase the amounts they give to charities? Why are arguments based on the effectiveness of charitable organizations less compelling to most people than we'd like for them to be? What percentages of a social group should be "doves", "hawks", "eagles", or something else? To what extent should our knowledge about our evolutionary history shape our values? Why are children more likely than adults to engage in prosocial behaviors towards strangers? Aside from anecdotal evidence, how do we know that political polarization in the US has been increasing over the last few decades? How can bridges of respect and trust be built between warring political tribes? How can people even begin to undertake the project of building bridges across political divides if they have no interest in understanding or engaging with the other side — especially if they believe that the other side is completely deranged, evil, or otherwise unfit to govern at any level? What is "deep pragmatism"? What might a "psychologically-informed" version of utilitarianism look like?

Josh Greene is Professor of Psychology and a member of the Center for Brain Science faculty at Harvard University. Much of his research has focused on the psychology and neuroscience of moral judgment, examining the interplay between emotion and reason in moral dilemmas. His more recent work studies critical features of individual and collective intelligence. His current neuroscientific research examines how the brain combines concepts to form thoughts and how thoughts are manipulated in reasoning and imagination. His current behavioral research examines strategies for improving social decision-making and alleviating intergroup conflict. He is also the author of Moral Tribes: Emotion, Reason, and the Gap Between Us and Them. Learn more about him at his website, joshua-greene.net.

Further reading

"Boosting the impact of charitable giving with donation bundling and micromatching" by Lucius Caviola and Joshua Greene
Giving Multiplier (w/ Clearer Thinking promo code): Use the link yourself, or send it to a friend so that they can get matches on their donations!
"The Psychology of (In)Effective Altruism" by Lucius Caviola, Stefan Schubert, and Joshua Greene
Moral Tribes: Emotion, Reason, and the Gap Between Us and Them by Joshua Greene

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We can't mitigate AI risks we've never imagined (with Darren McKee)

6 december 2023 | 72 min

What tools do students really need in order to become successful humans? (with AJ Crabill)

29 november 2023 | 64 min

Rethinking what it means to learn math (with Eugenia Cheng)

22 november 2023 | 79 min

Read the full transcript here.

What should the goals of math education be? What does it mean to "think well"? Is math real? Why are feelings of bewilderment or confusion so common in math classes but not as common in other subjects? Schools now generally offer reading and writing instruction separately — even though both are important for language use — because the skill sets they require can differ so widely; so how might math education benefit from drawing a similar distinction? What should math classes impart to students that will enable them to engage as citizens with complex or controversial issues? What does it mean to ask good questions in math? Can math teach empathy? What is category theory? Can most people learn most things if they just have the right teacher and/or educational materials?

Eugenia Cheng is a mathematician, educator, author, public speaker, columnist, concert pianist, composer, and artist. She is Scientist In Residence at the School of the Art Institute of Chicago. She won tenure in Pure Mathematics at the University of Sheffield, UK, and is now Honorary Visiting Fellow at City, University of London. She has previously taught at the Universities of Cambridge, Chicago, and Nice, and holds a PhD in pure mathematics from the University of Cambridge. Alongside her research in Category Theory and undergraduate teaching, her aim is to rid the world of "math phobia". Eugenia was an early pioneer of math on YouTube, and her videos have been viewed around 15 million times to date. She has also written several books, including: How to Bake Pi (2015); Beyond Infinity (2017); The Art of Logic (2018); x + y : A Mathematician's Manifesto for Rethinking Gender (2020); The Joy of Abstraction: A Exploration of Math, Category Theory, and Life (2022); Is Math Real? How Simple Questions Lead Us to Mathematics' Deepest Truths (2023); and two children's books: Molly and the Mathematical Mysteries and Bake Infinite Pie with x + y. She also writes the "Everyday Math" column for the Wall Street Journal and has completed mathematical art commissions for Hotel EMC2, 6018 North, the Lubeznik Center, and the Cultural Center, Chicago. She is the founder of the Liederstube, an intimate oasis for art song based in Chicago. As a composer she has been commissioned by GRAMMY-nominated soprano Laura Strickling and is one of the composers for the LYNX Amplify series, setting work by autistic poets who are primarily non-speaking. Learn more about her at her website, eugeniacheng.com.

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Values, principles, and behavior change (with Eric Zimmer)

15 november 2023 | 63 min

Escaping a cult: physically, mentally, and emotionally (with Daniella Mestyanek Young)

8 november 2023 | 78 min

Read the full transcript here.

How do the experiences of children born into cults differ from members who join as adults? Why do some cults that grow out of western evangelical Christianity — which is notoriously obsessed with purity culture — often flip the script about sex and turn promiscuity into a virtue? How does age affect the ease with which one internalizes cult programming? To what extent do cult members approve of sexual abuses committed the name of religion? What sort of tactics do cult leaders employ to keep members from leaving? In what ways are militaries like cults? Why has the US military been so slow to fix its culture of rape and abuse of women? What are "thought-stopping" clichés? What defines a cult? What are the often unseen or less tangible consequences of leaving a cult? What sins are considered unforgivable in a cult? What are some examples of cult-like groups that don't necessarily meet every single criterion for cult-ness?

Daniella Mestyanek Young was born a third-generation member of the infamous Children of God religious cult. She grew up being trafficked around the world before escaping that life and moving to America at age 15. She put herself through high school and graduated as college valedictorian before commissioning into the US Army as an intelligence officer. She deployed twice to Afghanistan (in 2011 and 2014) and became a member of one of the Army's first Female Engagement Teams (an experiment that put women into deliberate ground combat for the first time in Army history and eventually led to the repeal of the sexist combat ban and the gender desegregation of the entire US military). She is a proud daughter of the 101st (the unit featured in Band of Brothers), a recipient of the Presidential Volunteer Service Award from President Obama, and is currently pursuing a Master of Arts in Organizational Psychology at the Harvard Extension School where she focuses her research on group behavior, social norms, culture, extremism, leadership demagoguery, and cults. Learn more about her at her website, uncultureyourself.com.

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Win-Win vs. Moloch, the many-headed monster that may consume us all (with Liv Boeree)

1 november 2023 | 79 min

Read the full transcript here.

Who's Moloch? And what do we mean when we call something "Molochian"? What does healthy competition look like? How can we avoid or extricate ourselves from Molochian scenarios? Are our instincts about fairness and unfairness usually accurate? Is it possible for today's social media giants to create products that people want to use and that are actually good for people to use? What kinds of problems could conceivably be solved by "trustless" solutions? or "high-trust" solutions? Where do you fall on the "rationality-to-woo" spectrum? When do we not want to find rational explanations for mysterious phenomena? What kinds of new rational explanations might we find if we opened our minds to more "woo"?

Liv Boeree is one of the UK’s most successful poker players, winning multiple titles during her professional career, including a European Poker Tour Championship and World Series of Poker bracelet. Originally trained in astrophysics, she now works as an educator and researcher specializing in the intersection of game theory, technology, and catastrophic risk reduction. Her main focus areas at present are the risks posed by artificial intelligence and other exponential technologies. She is also a co-founder of Raising for Effective Giving (REG), an advisory organization that uses scientific methods to identify and fundraise for the most globally impactful charitable causes. Her latest project is the newly launched Win-Win Podcast, which explores the complexities of one of the most fundamental parts of human nature: competition. Follow her on Twitter at @liv_boeree.

Further reading

Icarus, a documentary about doping in sports
"Meditations on Moloch" by Scott Alexander
Finite and Infinite Games by James Carse
Win-Win with Liv Boeree (podcast)

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Do technological innovations yield net gains in the long run? (with Justin Smith-Ruiu)

25 oktober 2023 | 86 min

Money, status, power, and sex in nightclubs around the world (with Ashley Mears)

18 oktober 2023 | 83 min

Read the full transcript here.

What interesting social phenomena can be observed at nightclubs? What are "whales" hoping to achieve by spending big at nightclubs? Trying too obviously to increase social status tends to backfire; so how can people buy status without appearing to do so? What do "promoters" gain from these social interactions? How does their work differ from or overlap with sex work? How can they make money without being seen as "gold-diggers"? What ethnicities tend to comprise these nightclub groups? How do wealthy people attempt to navigate the norms of the various elite substrata which expect them both to put their wealth on display and to do so without being ostentatious or gaudy?

Ashley Mears is a professor of sociology and women's, gender, and sexuality studies at Boston University, and she's the co-founder of the Ethnographic Cafe and BU's Precarity Lab. She received her BA in sociology from the University of Georgia in 2002 and her PhD in sociology at New York University in 2009. Working primarily at the intersections of economic and cultural sociology and gender, she studies how societies value people and things; she researches value and exchange in the context of labor, beauty, free stuff, elites, consumption, and social media; and she has written on theory and qualitative methods. She has held visiting positions at the University of Amsterdam and the Central European University in Budapest. In 2021-2022, she was a Fellow at the Institute for Advanced Study in Budapest. She currently serves on the editorial boards of American Sociological Review and Qualitative Sociology. Learn more about her at her website, ashleymears.com.

Further reading

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Is bad air quality slowly harming us? (with Richard Bruns)

11 oktober 2023 | 84 min

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How bad is the air quality in the US and around the world? What's the evidence that certain kinds of particles in the air lead to negative health outcomes? Are there differences in air quality among urban, suburban, and rural areas? And if so, then to what extent are negative health outcomes attributable to air quality rather than to (e.g.) poverty, education, or other confounding factors? What are "PM 2.5" particles? Can some particles be too small to matter? Are all particles of a certain size harmful, or only specific types of particles? Do damaging particles accumulate in the body over time? What can the average person do to reduce their exposure to unhealthy air? Opening windows in our homes can let in fresh air, but it can also let in harmful particles; so is opening windows a good idea or not? How relatively bad are trans fats and saturated fats? Does the FDA regulate drugs too much or not enough? Why do side effect labels usually list all possible side effects without any indication of how common those side effects are? What should a bureacracy be and not be? How can bureacracies train employees to follow rules and produce consistent outcomes without stifling individual initiative and creativity?

Richard Bruns is an economist who specializes in cost-benefit analysis of novel public health policy. He is currently a Senior Scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, which is an Open-Philanthropy-funded think tank devoted to protecting the world from catastrophic biological risks. For the past few years, much of his work has been focused on how indoor air quality improvements can protect us from disease. Before that, he was an economist in the food part of the Food and Drug Administration. Feel free to email him at [email protected] about any topic in this episode, or learn more about him at his website.

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Journalism in the age of AI (with Dylan Matthews)

4 oktober 2023 | 75 min

Experiments for enlightenment and fundamental wellbeing (with Jeffery Martin)

27 september 2023 | 127 min

Mothers who harm their children for attention (with Andrea Dunlop)

20 september 2023 | 80 min

Is evolutionary psychology just a bunch of "just so" stories? (with Geoffrey Miller)

13 september 2023 | 73 min

Read the full transcript here.

Why do even people who accept evolutionary explanations for most biological phenomena often push back against evolutionary explanations for human psychology? To what extent should humans adjust their behavior in light of evopsych findings? How do evopsych researchers avoid formulating "just so" stories to explain specific behaviors? What can we infer about human behavior from the behaviors of chimps, bonobos, gorillas, or orangutans? What is the evopsych view of incest (which most people seem to find disgusting but which is also one of the most popular porn categories)? Are emotions primarily shaped by evolution or by culture? How can evopsych findings be applied to everyday things like dating? A safely-aligned AI system should presumably support the majority of human values; so how should AI alignment researchers think about religious values, which are generally held by the majority of humans but which differ radically in their specifics from group to group? What are some other rarely-considered AI alignment blind spots?

Geoffrey Miller is an evolutionary psychologist best known for his books The Mating Mind (2001), Mating Intelligence (2008), Spent (2009), and Mate (2015). He also has over 110 academic publications addressing sexual selection, mate choice, signaling theory, fitness indicators, consumer behavior, marketing, intelligence, creativity, language, art, music, humor, emotions, personality, psychopathology, and behavior genetics. He holds a B.A. in biology and psychology from Columbia University and a Ph.D. in cognitive psychology from Stanford University, and he is a tenured associate professor at University of New Mexico. Follow him on Twitter at @primalpoly, or find out more about him on his website, primalpoly.com.

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Systems of governance built on prediction markets (with Robin Hanson)

7 september 2023 | 86 min

Read the full transcript here.

What is futarchy? Why does it seem to be easier to find social innovations rather than technical innovations? How does it differ from democracy? In what ways might a futarchy be gamed? What are some obstacles to implementing futarchy? Do we actually like for our politicians to be hypocritical to some degree? How mistaken are we about our own goals for social, political, and economic institutions? Do we enjoy fighting (politically) more than actually governing well and improving life for everyone? What makes something "sacred"? What is a tax career agent?

Robin Hanson is associate professor of economics at George Mason University and research associate at the Future of Humanity Institute of Oxford University. He has a doctorate in social science from California Institute of Technology, master's degrees in physics and philosophy from the University of Chicago, and nine years experience as a research programmer at Lockheed and NASA. He has over ninety academic publications in major journals across a wide variety of fields and has written two books: The Age of Em: Work, Love and Life When Robots Rule the Earth (2016), and The Elephant in the Brain: Hidden Motives in Everyday Life (2018, co-authored with Kevin Simler). He has pioneered prediction markets, also known as information markets and idea futures, since 1988; and he suggests "futarchy" as a form of governance based on prediction markets. He also coined the phrase "The Great Filter" and has recently numerically estimated it via a model of "Grabby Aliens". Learn more about Robin at his GMU page or follow him on the-website-formerly-known-as-Twitter at @robinhanson.

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Using metacognitive therapy to break the habit of rumination (with Pia Callesen)

30 augusti 2023 | 48 min

How quickly is AI advancing? And should you be working in the field? (with Danny Hernandez)

23 augusti 2023 | 69 min

Can we choose who we are? (with Gavin Leech)

16 augusti 2023 | 67 min

Normalizing catastrophes and catastrophizing normalcy (with Mike Pesca)

9 augusti 2023 | 87 min

What's wrong with society, and how can we fix it? (with Tim Urban)

2 augusti 2023 | 86 min

Read the full transcript here.

What's wrong with society? And what can we do to fix it? Centuries ago, a person's grandparents lived in a world that was basically identical to that person's world; but what are the implications of living in a time when the rate of technological change is such that our grandparents' world was almost nothing like ours, and ours will be almost nothing like our grandchildren's? How do Tim's concepts of the "primitive mind" and the "higher mind" map onto System 1 and System 2 thinking types? What thinking styles exist along the spectrum from primitive mind to higher mind? Why are there either lots of Nazis or virtually none at all? Are there more "golems" or "genies" in the world right now? Are the American political left and right wings just equal but opposite groups, or are there significant asymmetries between them? How does social justice activism differ from "wokeness"? What is "idea supremacy"? Does liberalism need to be destroyed and rebuilt from scratch (perhaps as something else entirely) or merely repaired and revamped? Is illiberalism the biggest threat facing the world right now — bigger even than AI, climate change, etc.?

Tim Urban is the writer/illustrator and co-founder of Wait But Why, a long-form, stick-figure-illustrated website with over 600,000 subscribers and a monthly average of half a million visitors. He has produced dozens of viral articles on a wide range of topics, from artificial intelligence to social anxiety to humans becoming a multi-planetary species. Tim's 2016 TED main stage talk is the third most-watched TED talk in history with 67 million views. In 2023, Tim published his bestselling book What's Our Problem? A Self Help Book for Societies.

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AI creativity and love (with Joel Lehman)

26 juli 2023 | 63 min

Glimpses of enlightenment through nondual meditation (with Michael Taft and Jeremy Stevenson)

19 juli 2023 | 77 min

Read the full transcript here.

How does nondual meditation differ from other forms of meditation? Is nonduality the sort of thing a person can just "get" immediately? What value is provided by the more effortful, less "sudden" forms of meditation? Is there such a thing as full or complete enlightenment? And what would such a state entail? To what extent do nondual meditation teachers agree about what nonduality is? Are glimpses of enlightenment available to everyone? How long does it usually take a person to stabilize their ability to return to a nondual way of seeing the world? What are some common ways people get "stuck" while learning nondual meditation? How important are meditation retreats? Though the paths themselves are obviously quite distinct from one another, do all forms of meditation ultimately share a common goal? How are all of these things related to spirituality or religion?

Michael Taft is a teacher of nondual meditation and host of the Deconstructing Yourself podcast and website. He is the author of The Mindful Geek, and co-founder of The Alembic, a Berkeley-based center for meditation, movement, citizen neuroscience, and visionary culture. Having lived all over the world and practiced deeply in several traditions, Michael currently makes his home in California. Email him at [email protected], or learn more about him at his website, deconstructingyourself.com.

Jeremy Stevenson hails from Adelaide, Australia, and has a PhD in clinical psychology with a dissertation focused on the effects of self-compassion on social anxiety. During his PhD he became intensely interested in meditation, sitting several shorter retreats which eventually culminated in sitting longer retreats, including a 3-month retreat in Nepal. He is now working as a clinical psychologist as well as doing research work for Spark Wave. His ongoing meditation interest is the perplexing skill of nondual mindfulness. Email him at [email protected], or listen to his previous episode on this podcast here.

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Crumbling institutions, culture wars, and the dismissal economy (with Ashley Hodgson)

12 juli 2023 | 63 min

Virtual reality, simulation theory, consciousness, and identity (with David Chalmers)

5 juli 2023 | 79 min

Read the full transcript here.

What does philosophy have to say about virtual reality (VR)? Under what conditions is "normal" reality preferable to VR? To what extent are VR experiences "real"? How likely is it that we're living in a simulation? What implications would the discovery that we're living in a simulation have for our beliefs about reality? How common is Bayesian thinking among philosophers? How should we think about identity over time if selves can be split or duplicated? What might it look like for our conception of identity to undergo a "fall from Eden"? What do people mean when they say that consciousness is an illusion? Finding a grand unified theory of physics seems at least in principle the sort of thing that science can do, even if we haven't done it yet; but can science even in principle solve the hard problem of consciousness? Might consciousness just be a fundamental law of the universe, an axiom which we must accept but for which there might be no explanation? Is consciousness needed in order to attain certain levels of biological evolution? How conscious (or not) are our current AI models? Statistically speaking, what are the most prevalent views held by philosophers?

David Chalmers is University Professor of Philosophy and Neural Science and co-director of the Center for Mind, Brain, and Consciousness at New York University. He is the author of The Conscious Mind (1996) and Reality+ (2022). He is known for formulating the "hard problem" of consciousness, which inspired Tom Stoppard's play The Hard Problem, and for the idea of the "extended mind," which says that the tools we use can become parts of our minds. Learn more about him at consc.net.

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Deep canvassing, street epistemology, and other tools of persuasion (with David McRaney)

28 juni 2023 | 80 min

Will AI destroy civilization in the near future? (with Connor Leahy)

21 juni 2023 | 85 min

Is AI development moving too fast or not fast enough? (with Reid Hoffman)

14 juni 2023 | 61 min

Where philosophy meets the real world (with Peter Singer)

7 juni 2023 | 85 min

Read the full transcript here.

How have animal rights and the animal rights movement changed in the last few decades? How has the scale of animal product consumption grown relative to human population growth? On what principles ought animal ethics to be grounded? What features of human psychology enable humans to empathize with and dislike animal suffering and yet also eat animal products regularly? How does the agribusiness industry convince people to make choices that go against their own values? What are some simple changes people can make to their diets if they're not ready yet to go completely vegetarian or vegan but still want to be less responsible for animal suffering? What attitudes should vegetarians and vegans hold towards meat-eaters? When, if ever, is it possible to have done "enough", morally speaking? What are the things that matter intrinsically to humans and other sentient beings? What is the most complex organism that is apparently not conscious? Will we ever have the technology to scan someone's brain and measure how much pleasure or suffering they're experiencing? How uncertain should we be about moral uncertainty? What should we eat if it's eventually discovered that plants can suffer?

Peter Singer is a philosopher and the Ira W. DeCamp Professor of Bioethics in the University Center for Human Values at Princeton University. His work focuses on the ethics of human treatment of animals; he is often credited with starting the modern animal rights movement; and his writings have significantly influenced the development of the Effective Altruism movement. In 1971, Peter co-founded the Australian Federation of Animal Societies, now called Animals Australia, the country's largest and most effective animal organization; and in 2013, he founded The Life You Can Save, an organization named after his 2009 book, which aims to spread his ideas about why we should be doing much more to improve the lives of people living in extreme poverty and how we can best do this. In 2021, he received the Berggruen Prize for Philosophy and Culture for his "widely influential and intellectually rigorous work in reinvigorating utilitarianism as part of academic philosophy and as a force for change in the world". He has written, co-authored, edited, or co-edited more than 50 books, including Animal Liberation, The Life You Can Save, Practical Ethics, The Expanding Circle, Rethinking Life and Death, One World, The Ethics of What We Eat (with Jim Mason), and The Point of View of the Universe (with Katarzyna de Lazari-Radek); and his writings have been translated into more than 25 languages. Find out more about him at his website, petersinger.info, or follow him on Facebook, Twitter, or Instagram.

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Large language models, deep peace, and the meaning crisis (with Jim Rutt)

31 maj 2023 | 85 min

Censorship, cancel culture, and truth-seeking (with Iona Italia)

24 maj 2023 | 66 min

Why are birth rates plummeting? And how much does it matter? (with Malcolm & Simone Collins)

18 maj 2023 | 72 min

Science is learning from start-ups (with Adam Marblestone)

15 maj 2023 | 74 min

The range of human perceptual experiences (with Anil Seth)

3 maj 2023 | 68 min

Read the full transcript here.

How does the world differ from our perception of it? Where is color located? Is the self constructed in the same way our concept of the world is constructed? Aside from being interesting bits of trivia, why does any of that really matter? In what ways does perception most often differ among humans? How different are art and science?

Anil Seth is a neuroscientist, author, and public speaker who has pioneered research into the brain basis of consciousness for more than twenty years. His mission is to advance the science of consciousness, and to use its insights for the benefits of society, technology, and medicine. He is Professor of Cognitive and Computational Neuroscience at the University of Sussex; Co-Director of the Canadian Institute for Advanced Research Program on Brain, Mind, and Consciousness; a European Research Council Advanced Investigator; and Editor-in-Chief of the academic journal Neuroscience of Consciousness. He has published more than 180 research papers and has been recognized by Web of Science, over several years, as being in the top 0.1% of researchers worldwide. A former Wellcome Trust Engagement Fellow, his two TED talks have been viewed more than thirteen million times, he has appeared in several films, and he has written for Aeon, The Guardian, Granta, New Scientist, and Scientific American, and he is lead scientist on the Dreamachine project. His new book Being You: A New Science of Consciousness was an instant Sunday Times Bestseller and a 2021 Book of the Year for The Economist, The New Statesman, Bloomberg Business, The Guardian, The Financial Times and elsewhere. Check out Dreamachine, take part in The Perception Census, visit Anil's website, or follow him on Twitter, Instagram, Facebook, or LinkedIn.

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The capabilities approach to welfare (with Martha Nussbaum)

27 april 2023 | 75 min

Should you become a charity entrepreneur? (with Joey Savoie)

19 april 2023 | 69 min

Read the full transcript here.

What is charity entrepreneurship? What sorts of incentives pull charities away from their stated goals? Why is Effective Altruism even a thing when it's already the case that most charities probably try to be as effective as they can be and probably use evidence of some kind to move towards that end? How diverse are the value systems in the EA movement? To what extent should charity funders diversify? Under what conditions does expected value theory break down? Is it possible to be too altruistic? Have too many EA orgs moved away from more traditional, near-term causes to pursue long-term causes? How frequently should charities switch projects? What is foundation entrepreneurship? What's the best advice to give to a non-EA person who wants to do some amount of good in the world?

Joey Savoie wants to make the biggest positive difference in the world that he can. His mission is to cause more effective charities to exist in the world by connecting talented individuals with high-impact intervention opportunities. To achieve this, he co-founded Charity Entrepreneurship, an organization that launches effective charities through an extensive research process and incubation program. Prior to Charity Entrepreneurship, he co-founded Charity Science, a meta-organization that increased the amount of counterfactual funding going to high-impact charities. Subsequently, he co-founded Charity Science Health, a nonprofit that increases vaccination rates in India using mobile phones and behavioral nudges. He has given lectures on various aspects of charity entrepreneurship and Effective Altruism in Oxford, Cambridge, Harvard, Yale, EAG London, EAG San Francisco, Berlin, Basel, Vancouver, Stockholm, and Oslo. Learn more about Charity Entrepreneurship here, and learn more about Joey here.

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Has political polarization been misunderstood? (with Nick Gillespie)

12 april 2023 | 72 min

How can you tell if you're cut out for entrepreneurship? (with Matt Clifford)

5 april 2023 | 72 min

Read the full transcript here.

What are "variance-amplifying" and "variance-dampening" institutions? Has the world been getting weirder recently? Should entrepreneurs aim for variance amplification or variance dampening? What percentage of people should be entrepreneurs? What traits and skills are necessary for successful entrepreneurship? How has ambition changed over the course of history? How can entrepreneurs know if they're really changing the world, or just doing something slightly before someone else did it, or just doing something that would have happened anyway? How can entrepreneurs avoid getting mired in "tar pit" ideas?

Matt Clifford MBE is cofounder and CEO of Entrepreneur First, the leading technology company builder that invests in top technical individuals to help them build world-class deep technology startups from scratch in six locations across Europe, Asia, and Canada. Since 2011, Entrepreneur First has created over 500 startups worth over $10bn including Magic Pony Technology, Tractable, and CloudNC. Matt is also Chairman of the UK's new Advanced Research and Invention Agency (ARIA), which aims to enable exceptional scientists and researchers to identify and fund transformational research that leads to new technologies, discoveries, products, and services. Matt sits on the board of Code First Girls, which he co-founded in 2013 to teach young women how to code, and is a member of the Innovate UK Council. Matt started his career at McKinsey & Co. and holds degrees from Cambridge and MIT, where he was a Kennedy Scholar. He was awarded an MBE for services to business in the 2016 Queen's Birthday Honours. Follow him on Twitter, interact with him on LinkedIn, or learn more about his work at Entrepreneur First.

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Letting ChatGPT make your decisions for you (with Dax Flame)

29 mars 2023 | 63 min

What good is college now that we can learn everything for free on the internet? (with Nick Dirks)

22 mars 2023 | 63 min

Not seeing your face as a first step to enlightenment? (with Richard Lang)

15 mars 2023 | 73 min

Is giving people a sense of agency better than giving them cash? (with Richard Sedlmayr)

8 mars 2023 | 60 min

Are you working on the most important problem in your field? Why not? (with Rohit Krishnan)

1 mars 2023 | 67 min

How huge a deal is climate change, really? (with Diana Ürge-Vorsatz and Misha Glouberman)

22 februari 2023 | 93 min

Becoming a policy entrepreneur (with Tom Kalil)

15 februari 2023 | 65 min

How to build your second brain (with Tiago Forte)

8 februari 2023 | 61 min

Does every language have a word for depression? (with Sean Mayberry)

1 februari 2023 | 60 min

What things in life shouldn't we optimize? (with Christie Aschwanden)

25 januari 2023 | 56 min

How can we make science more trustworthy? (with Stuart Ritchie)

19 januari 2023 | 87 min

Living a life of service to others (with Tasshin Fogleman)

12 januari 2023 | 78 min

Mapping metaethics (with Lance Bush)

5 januari 2023 | 99 min

Read the full transcript here.

What is metaethics? Is moral objectivism the same thing as moral realism? When philosophers examine sentences like "Murder is wrong", are they generally more interested in (1) the role that the language is playing in a social interaction (e.g., that it's an imperative or that it expresses an emotion) or (2) the concepts themselves and their relations? Could it be the case that all moral statements are false? What do we know about how people actually use moral language in everyday life? Or do people even have any idea what they're doing when they use moral language? We're familiar with the idea that cultures vary in how they emphasize and value moral concepts; but are there cultures that have radically different moral concepts than our own (i.e., cultures that might not even have the concepts of modesty or honor in the first place, or that might have moral concepts that have never occurred to us)? Are there cultures that have have no moral concepts at all? What does it really mean to say that someone "should" do something? What is the use of intuition in philosophy? Where is philosophy going wrong today?

Lance S. Bush is a PhD student in social psychology at Cornell University. Most of his research focuses on moral psychology, metaethics, and methodological issues in experimental philosophy. He is also interested in psychological factors relevant to effective altruism and existential risk, particularly cognitive biases, reputational concerns, and other psychological phenomena that inhibit altruism and concern for the distant future. Email him at [email protected] or learn more about him at LanceSBush.com.

Further reading

Meta-Ethical Positions diagram and explanation blog post by Tommy Crow

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Do organizations have to get slower as they grow? (with Alex Komoroske)

28 december 2022 | 69 min

How can we un-break politics? (with Magnus Vinding)

21 december 2022 | 54 min

Why capitalism doesn't live up to its promises (with Martin Schmalz)

14 december 2022 | 77 min

Read the full transcript here.

Why doesn't capitalism seem to be living up to its promises of free and fair competition, low prices, and high quality goods and services (at least in Western nations)? What did Adam Smith fail to foresee about the ways economic systems would change on the way to 2022? What is "common ownership", and what effects does it have on economies? What interventions should be implemented to keep an economy healthy? Is it easier to put pressure on business leaders or politicians? In terms of shifting incentives for the sake of mitigating climate change, how effective is it to divest from "brown" businesses and invest instead in "green" ones? What is the AI revolution really about? Is it conceivable, even in theory, that AIs could make predictions in "uncharted territory" where the present is completely unlike the past? (But for that matter, how well can humans make predictions in such cases?) Is the hubbub around AI just a distraction from other more important issues? How can we keep AIs from reinforcing existing biases?

Martin Schmalz is Professor of Finance and Economics at Saïd Business School, University of Oxford. He holds a graduate degree (Dipl.-Ing.) in mechanical engineering from the Universität Stuttgart (Germany) and a M.A. and PhD in Economics from Princeton University (USA). Prof. Schmalz is the Academic Director of Oxford's Blockchain Strategy Programme, and co-director of the Open Banking & AI in Finance Programme. He co-authored The Business of Big Data: How to Create Lasting Value in the Age of AI, and was featured as one of the "40 under 40" best business school professors worldwide at the age of 33. Read his writings on his blog, learn more about him on his website, and follow him on Twitter at @martincschmalz (governance & antitrust) and @oxfordfrom (everything else).

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Anti-interoperability, vendor lock-in, and high switching costs (with Cory Doctorow)

7 december 2022 | 54 min

Separating the sinner from the sin (with Khomotso Moshikaro)

30 november 2022 | 72 min

The FTX catastrophe (with Byrne Hobart, Vipul Naik, Maomao Hu, Marcus Abramovich, and Ozzie Gooen)

28 november 2022 | 205 min

What the heck happened with FTX and Sam Bankman-Fried? Were there early warning signs that most people failed to notice? What could've been done differently, and by whom? What effects will this have on the EA movement going forward?

Timestamps:

00:01:37 — Intro & timeline
00:51:48 — Byrne Hobart
01:39:52 — Vipul Naik
02:18:35 — Maomao Hu
02:41:19 — Marcus Abramovitch
02:49:38 — Ozzie Gooen
03:21:40 — Wrap-up & outro

Byrne Hobart writes The Diff, a newsletter covering inflections in finance and tech, which has 47,000+ readers. Previously he worked at a hedge fund covering Internet and media companies. Follow Byrne on Twitter at @ByrneHobart or subscribe to The Diff at thediff.co.

Vipul Naik holds a PhD in mathematics from the University of Chicago and is currently the head of data science at Equator Therapeutics, a drug discovery startup. He previously worked at a tech startup called LiftIgniter and then at The Arena Group, a media / tech company that acquired LiftIgniter. Learn more about him at his website, vipulnaik.com.

Maomao Hu is a blockchain, fintech, and AI entrepreneur and thought leader. He has been involved in organizations ranging from leading investment banks to new startups, to solve both microstructure problems like market surveillance and macrostructure problems like capital allocation. Currently, he leads development and quantitative research at asset manager Zerocap. Learn more about him at his website, thefirenexttime.com.

Marcus Abramovich is a managing partner at Enlightenment Ventures, an EA-aligned cryptocurrency hedge fund. Marcus also leads a Facebook group and Discord community of effective altruists focused on accumulating capital to donate to EA causes, and advises several cryptocurrency projects. Marcus discovered effective altruism as a PhD candidate at the University of Waterloo and professional poker player. Email him at [email protected].

Ozzie Gooen is the president of The Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute. He has a background in programming and research. He previously founded Guesstimate and worked at the Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford. Follow him on Twitter at @ozziegooen or learn more about his current work at quantifieduncertainty.org.

Further Reading:

"Clarifications on diminishing returns and risk aversion in giving" by Rob Wiblin @ the EA forum on why he disagrees with the SBF's risk-taking approach [link]

References:

0xhonky. (November 13, 2022, 03:12 AM UTC). https://twitter.com/0xhonky/status/1591630071915483136. Twitter. [link]
alamedatrabucco. (April 22, 2021, 10:37 AM UTC). https://twitter.com/alamedatrabucco/status/1385180941186789384. Twitter. [link]
Allison, I.. (November 2, 2022). Divisions in Sam Bankman-Fried's Crypto Empire Blur on His Trading Titan Alameda's Balance Sheet. Coindesk. [link]
Austin. (November 14, 2022). In Defense of SBF. Effective Altruism Forum. [link]
autismcapital. (November 12, 2022, 07:33 AM UTC). https://twitter.com/autismcapital/status/1591333446995283969. Twitter. [link]
Berwick, A.. (November 13, 2022). Exclusive: At least $1 billion of client funds missing at failed crypto firm FTX. Reuters. [link]
carolinecapital. (April 5, 2021, 11:41 AM UTC). https://twitter.com/carolinecapital/status/1379036346300305408. Twitter. [link]
corybates1895. (November 10, 2022, 10:37 PM UTC). https://twitter.com/corybates1895/status/1590836167867760641. Twitter. [link]
cz_binance. (November 6, 2022, 03:47 PM UTC). https://twitter.com/cz_binance/status/1589283421704290306. Twitter. [link]
cz_binance. (November 8, 2022). https://twitter.com/cz_binance/status/1590013613586411520. Twitter. [link]
Faux, Z.. (April 3, 2022). A 30-Year-Old Crypto Billionaire Wants to Give His Fortune Away. Bloomberg. [link]
Ellison, C.. (September 21, 2021). https://worldoptimization.tumblr.com/post/642664297644916736/slatestarscratchpad-all-right-more-really-stupid [deleted]. World Optimization. [link]
ftxfuturefund. (February 8, 2022, 05:32 PM UTC). https://twitter.com/ftxfuturefund/status/1498350483206860801. Twitter. [link]
Gach, E.. (November 14, 2022). Crypto's Biggest Crash Saw Guy Playing League Of Legends While Luring Investors [Update]. Kotaku. [link]
Hussein, F.. (November 16, 2022). House panel to hold hearing on cryptocurrency exchange FTX collapse. PBS News Hour. [link]
Jenkinson, G.. (November 17, 2022). SBF received $1B in personal loans from Alameda: FTX bankruptcy filing. Cointelegraph. [link]
Kulish, N.. (November 13, 2022). FTX's Collapse Casts a Pall on a Philanthropy Movement. The New York Times. [link]
Levine, M.. (November 14, 2022). FTX's Balance Sheet Was Bad. Bloomberg. [link]
Ligon,C., Reynolds, S., Kessler, S., De, N., & Decker, R.. (November 11, 2022). 'FTX Has Been Hacked': Crypto Disaster Worsens as Exchange Sees Mysterious Outflows Exceeding $600M. Coindesk. [link]
Morrow, A.. (November 18, 2022). ‘Complete failure:' Filing reveals staggering mismanagement inside FTX . CNN. [link]
Nick_Beckstead, leopold, ab, & ketanrama. (November 10, 2022). The FTX Future Fund team has resigned. Effective Altruism Forum. [link]
Partz, H.. (November 9, 2022). FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried removes “assets are fine” flood from Twitter. Cointelegraph. [link]
Piper, K.. (November 16, 2022). Sam Bankman-Fried tries to explain himself. Vox. [link]
Regan, M.P. & Hajric, V.. (November 12, 2022). SBF vs CZ: How 2 crypto billionaires' social media “bloodsport” went from keyboard warrior shenanigans to a $32 billion blowup. Fortune. [link]
Rosenberg, E., Khartit, K., & McClay, R.. (August 26, 2022). What Is Yield Farming in Cryptocurrency?. The Balance. [link]
sbf_ftx. (December 2, 2020, 09:25 PM UTC). https://twitter.com/sbf_ftx/status/1334247283081138178. Twitter. [link]
sbf_ftx. (December 11, 2020, 04:19 AM UTC). https://twitter.com/sbf_ftx/status/1337250686870831107. Twitter. [link]
sbf_ftx. (November 8, 2022, 04:03 PM UTC). https://twitter.com/sbf_ftx/status/1590012124864348160. Twitter. [link]
sbf_ftx. (November 10, 2022, 02:13 PM UTC). https://twitter.com/sbf_ftx/status/1590709195892195329. Twitter. [link]
sbf_ftx. (November 11, 2022, 03:23 PM UTC). https://twitter.com/sbf_ftx/status/1591089317300293636. Twitter. [link]
Sigalos, M. & Rooney, K.. (November 9, 2022). Binance backs out of FTX rescue, leaving the crypto exchange on the brink of collapse. CNBC. [link]
tara_macaulay. (November 16, 2022, 08:57 PM UTC). https://twitter.com/tara_macaulay/status/1592985303262072834. Twitter. [link]
taylorpearsonme. (November 10, 2022, 10:00 PM UTC). https://twitter.com/taylorpearsonme/status/1590826638429650944. Twitter. [link]
Tsipursky, G.. (November 16, 2022). SBF's dangerous decision-making philosophy that brought down FTX. Fortune. [link]
whalechart. (November 15, 2022, 06:46 AM UTC). https://twitter.com/whalechart/status/1592408565402464259. Twitter. [link]
Wiblin, R. & Harris, K.. (April 14, 2022). Sam Bankman-Fried on taking a high-risk approach to crypto and doing good. 80,000 Hours. [link]
Yaffe-Bellany, D.. (November 14, 2022). How Sam Bankman-Fried's Crypto Empire Collapsed. The New York Times. [link]
yashkaf. (November 12, 2022, 07:18 PM UTC). https://twitter.com/yashkaf/status/1591606925149540353. Twitter. [link]
FTX (company). Wikipedia. [link]
Sam Bankman-Fried. Wikipedia. [link]

Staff

Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
Josh Castle — Producer
Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
Uri Bram — Factotum
Miles Kestran — Marketing

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How to find out what people in rural communities really need (with Robert Chambers)

23 november 2022 | 55 min

Building healthy relationships (with Jayson Gaddis)

16 november 2022 | 60 min

Bringing rationality into politics (with Elizabeth Edwards-Appell)

9 november 2022 | 77 min

Sex workers — empowered, or victims? (with Melissa Broudo)

2 november 2022 | 107 min

Read the full transcript here.

Content warning: Please be aware that rape and sexual abuse are discussed in this episode. If you are particularly sensitive to these issues, then please take care when listening.

How have identity politics and social media changed sex work? To what extent is sex work work? Under what conditions is a sex worker a victim of abuse? Why does rape seem so much worse than other kinds of physical abuse? Does an increase in access to sex workers necessarily cause an increase in infidelity? Are there psychological risks associated with sex work even for people that enjoy the work and are not otherwise harmed or abused? (For example, compared to the average person, is it harder for sex workers to form romantic relationships with others?) Does sex work reinforce or even amplify unwanted objectification and commodification of bodies? What are the various legal models of sex work being used around the world right now?

Melissa Sontag Broudo, JD, MPH, has been part of the sex-worker-rights and harm-reduction movements since the late 1990s, furthering policy, advocacy, and capacity-building efforts that support the rights of sex workers and survivors of human trafficking. She has been able to push rights-based policies and legislative initiatives that support sex workers and survivors of human trafficking, including: expanded criminal record relief for survivors of trafficking, immunity for victims of crimes who engage in sexual labor, and the formation of study commissions to review data related to better health outcomes for all people in the sex industry. She won the first-ever vacatur motion for a survivor of human trafficking and provided technical expertise on these critical motions throughout New York state and the country. Melissa received her Bachelor of Arts from Brown University in gender studies in 2001. She received her Master of Public Health from the Bloomberg School of Public Health at Johns Hopkins University and a Juris Doctor from Georgetown University Law Center through their dual degree program in 2006. Read more about Melissa's work at DecriminalizeSex.Work, or follow her on Instagram at @decrimsexwork or on Twitter at @decrimsex.

Staff

Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
Josh Castle — Producer
Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
Uri Bram — Factotum
Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist
Miles Kestran — Marketing

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What, if anything, do AIs understand? (with ChatGPT Co-Creator Ilya Sutskever)

26 oktober 2022 | 76 min

Forecasting the things that matter (with Peter Wildeford)

21 oktober 2022 | 92 min

Read the full transcript here.

How can we change the way we think about expertise (or the trustworthiness of any information source) using forecasting? How do prediction markets work? How can we use prediction markets in our everyday lives? Are prediction markets more trustworthy than large or respectable news outlets? How long does it take to sharpen one's prediction skills? In (e.g.) presidential elections, we know that the winner will be one person from a very small list of people; but how can we reasonably make predictions in cases where the outcomes aren't obviously multiple-choice (e.g., predicting when artificial general intelligence will be created)? How can we move from the world we have now to a world in which people think more quantitatively and make much better predictions? What scoring rules should we use to keep track of our predictions and update accordingly?

Peter Wildeford is the co-CEO of Rethink Priorities, where he aims to scalably employ a large number of well-qualified researchers to work on the world's most important problems. Prior to running Rethink Priorities, he was a data scientist in industry for five years at DataRobot, Avant, Clearcover, and other companies. He is also recognized as a Top 50 Forecaster on Metaculus (international forecasting competition) and has a Triple Master Rank on Kaggle (international data science competition) with top 1% performance in five different competitions. Follow him on Twitter at @peterwildeford.

Further reading

ClearerThinking.org's "Calibrate Your Judgment" practice program
Metaculus (forecasting platform)
Manifold Markets
Polymarket
"Calibration Scoring Rules for Practical Prediction Training", a paper by Spencer Greenberg

Staff

Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
Josh Castle — Producer
Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
Uri Bram — Factotum
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Is the universe a computer? (with Joscha Bach)

12 oktober 2022 | 83 min

Inventions, stories, and ideas that don't matter (with Pablos Holman)

5 oktober 2022 | 87 min

Humble-bragging, counter-signalling, and impression management (with Övül Sezer)

28 september 2022 | 65 min

Ambition and expected value at extremes (with Habiba Islam)

21 september 2022 | 66 min

Career science, open science, and inspired science (with Alexa Tullett)

14 september 2022 | 81 min

Estimating the long-term impact of our actions today (with Will MacAskill)

7 september 2022 | 66 min

The differences between analytic and continental philosophy (with Alexander Prescott-Couch)

31 augusti 2022 | 77 min

Voting method reform in the US (with Aaron Hamlin)

24 augusti 2022 | 78 min

Critiquing Effective Altruism (with Michael Nielsen and Ajeya Cotra)

19 augusti 2022 | 98 min

How to form habits effectively (with Jim Davies)

10 augusti 2022 | 83 min

Are scientific journals just parasites? (with Chris Chambers)

7 augusti 2022 | 80 min

Human bias in the definition of intelligence (with Alene Anello)

27 juli 2022 | 74 min

Guess culture vs. ask culture (with Will Eden and Sam Rosen)

20 juli 2022 | 79 min

Are we all the heroes of our own stories? (with Cate Hall)

13 juli 2022 | 92 min

Content moderation and its dis-content-moderators (with Ada Palmer)

6 juli 2022 | 82 min

Exploring sex science and pseudo-science (with Mary Roach)

29 juni 2022 | 64 min

The worst mistakes people make with diet and exercise (with Menno Henselmans)

22 juni 2022 | 78 min

Communicating what you really mean (with Misha Glouberman)

15 juni 2022 | 67 min

Taking pleasure in being wrong (with Buck Shlegeris)

8 juni 2022 | 76 min

A philosophical theory of jerks (with Eric Schwitzgebel)

1 juni 2022 | 75 min

How meanings get words and social sciences get broken (with Literal Banana)

25 maj 2022 | 80 min

Dealing with our "groupstruckness" and "boundedness" (with Katja Grace)

18 maj 2022 | 67 min

Math as a perspective on life (with Marcus du Sautoy)

11 maj 2022 | 80 min

A former Al-Qaeda recruiter speaks (with Jesse Morton)

4 maj 2022 | 114 min

Read the full transcript here.

NOTE: When we published this episode a few days ago, we were unaware that Jesse had passed away back in December of 2021. We only just learned of this fact today when a listener reached out to inform us. We're saddened by this news, and we apologize for any possible confusion or hurt we may have caused by linking to his Twitter handle, email address, etc. We have removed those items from his bio but left the link to the Light Upon Light website since it contains many of Jesse's writings and information about his life's work.

What leads people to violent extremism? Is extremism a legitimate, rational response to trauma, hardship, and powerlessness? Do some holy books make it easier to justify violence than others, or are all violent movements equally capable of extracting justifications from their holy book? To what extent does recruitment to radical movements involve "brainwashing" or overriding people's beliefs versus hooking into, shaping, and strengthening their beliefs? Are cults and radical movements the same thing? What enables people to deradicalize? How can we most effectively interact with radicalized friends or family members?

Jesse Morton was once a jihadist propagandist (then known as Younes Abdullah Muhammad) who ran Revolution Muslim, a New York City-based organization active in the 2000s that connected Muslims in the west to al-Qaeda's ideology, creating English language propaganda and collaborating with the most notorious jihadist preachers of that era. He deradicalized in 2011 and has worked since to become a leading commentator, interventionist, and innovator in the prevention and countering of violent extremism, focusing especially on jihadist, far-right, and far-left extremism. Jesse was included in Foreign Policy Magazine's 2017 "Global Thinkers" listing and holds a master's in Middle East studies from Columbia University along with licensure in substance-abuse and mental health counseling. Find more info at lightuponlight.online.

Staff

Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
Josh Castle — Producer
Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
Uri Bram — Factotum
Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist

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Cognitive biases and animal welfare (with Leah Edgerton)

27 april 2022 | 97 min

Read the full transcript here.

What are some of the tensions between short-term and long-term thinking about how best to reduce animal suffering? Why spend time and energy working on animal welfare when human welfare hasn't even been secured? Why do so many animal rights activists and organizations have such negative reputations and elicit such strongly negative emotional reactions from the population at large when they're just trying to reduce suffering? How does animal rights activism from an effective altruism perspective intersect with the more traditional forms of animal rights activism and social justice activism? Humans tend to be more capable of empathizing (for example) with a cow than with a fish, and more with a dog than with a cow; so how can animal rights activists motivate people in a way that works with or around human cognitive and emotional biases? What are some tools for dealing with chronic pain?

Leah has been involved in the effective altruism community for a decade and in animal advocacy her whole life. She has 7 years of professional experience in farmed animal advocacy, primarily focused on movement growth and interfacing with funders. Most recently, she worked at Animal Charity Evaluators on the Communications team and then as Executive Director. Her previous work experience includes performing in the Zurich Opera, managing a small business, and founding and leading ProVeg International's China Program. She currently works as a freelance philanthropic advisor to high-net-worth individuals entering the farmed animal space. You can email Leah at [email protected] or find out more about her on her LinkedIn profile.

Further reading

A tool to help you figure out what animal products are most harmful (as well as some caveats about the methods of the tool)

Staff

Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
Josh Castle — Producer
Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
Uri Bram — Factotum
Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist

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Is it bad to coerce yourself to do unpleasant things? (with Matt Goldenberg)

20 april 2022 | 61 min

Our 100th episode! (with Uri Bram and Spencer Greenberg)

13 april 2022 | 58 min

Volunteering to be infected with COVID — for science! (with Josh Morrison)

6 april 2022 | 85 min

Read the full transcript here.

How can we develop vaccines more quickly? What kinds of study designs are used (or could be used) during vaccine development? In pandemic situations, we need to roll out vaccines quickly; but even if we can develop and test a vaccine quickly and thoroughly, how confident can we be that there won't be long-term risks? Between ethics and pragmatics, which facet should communicators emphasize when trying to convince organizations and institutions to adopt certain vaccine development strategies? Informed consent is, of course, a hugely important requirement for using human volunteers in challenge trials; so if some people are informed, eager, and willing to volunteer their health and safety for such trials in order to aid vaccine development, then why aren't they being used more (if at all)? Since IRBs are often "all brakes and no gas", could they be given powers to accelerate research in addition to their current powers to slow or halt research? How can bioethics reviews be improved?

Josh Morrison is a serial social entrepreneur and aspiring effective altruist who has founded 1Day Sooner, Waitlist Zero, and the Rikers Debate Project. His work — in the fields of clinical trials, living organ donation, and criminal justice reform — focuses on empowering particular identity groups (research participants, kidney donors, and incarcerated people) to improve decision-making processes so as to achieve impactful policy. His projects have been covered globally in outlets such as the New York Times, CNN, the Financial Times, the BBC, Der Spiegel, Asahi Shimbun, and the South China Morning Post. His writing has been published in the Washington Post, the American Journal of Bioethics, Clinical Infectious Disease, Vaccine, Risk Analysis, Vox, STAT News, and BMJ Opinion. You can email him at [email protected].

Staff

Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
Josh Castle — Producer
Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
Uri Bram — Factotum
Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist

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What we really mean when we say that something will "probably" happen (with Walt Hickey)

30 mars 2022 | 70 min

Read the full transcript here.

Graphic novels have been around for a long time, so why have graphic novel sales skyrocketed suddenly in the last year or two? Is that growth representative of a possible trend away from reading text-only books? Do animated movies and TV shows allow for greater suspension of disbelief than their live-action counterparts? Does animation make it easier for movies and TV shows to push the boundaries of what's culturally acceptable? What is "soft" power, and why is it so important? How important has America's soft power been relative to its hard power over the past century? How is America's soft power affected by Americans' own views of their country? What's lacking or misguided in the ways most people think and talk about probabilities and statistics? Is it better to report predictions with very specific probabilities (e.g., "It's 67.5% likely to rain today") or with looser, more casual probabilities (e.g., "I think it'll probably rain today")?

Walt Hickey is a data journalist who founded and writes Numlock News, a daily morning newsletter about fascinating numbers buried in the news. His primary interests are in pop culture data journalism and how journalists can better integrate stats into stories. He's currently writing a book about how pop culture impacts its consumers and is the senior editor for data at Insider. He previously worked as the chief culture writer at FiveThirtyEight and has written for Marvel.com. You can follow him on Twitter at @WaltHickey and subscribe to his newsletter at NumlockNews.com.

Staff

Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
Josh Castle — Producer
Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
Uri Bram — Factotum
Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist

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Why is self-compassion so hard? (with Kristin Neff)

23 mars 2022 | 62 min

Read the full transcript here.

What is self-compassion? Why do people struggle so much to show themselves the same kind of compassion that they regularly show to others? How can parents find a successful middle ground between authoritativeness / harshness and permissiveness / love? Should our love for ourselves be unconditional? What's the difference between shame and guilt? What should we make of people who are neither compassionate nor cruel to themselves because they simply don't practice self-reflection? What factors during childhood lead to higher or lower self-compassion in adults? What religious, cultural, socioeconomic, or other factors contribute to differences in self-compassion? How can we still treat ourselves compassionately when we feel legitimate guilt over mistakes that have moral dimensions? Are there differences in self-compassion between men and women? What are the various components of self-compassion? How does compassion differ from related concepts like pity, sympathy, empathy, etc.? Why is it so important to us to have our feelings validated by others? Is it possible to have too much self-compassion? Do extremely antisocial people — like psychopaths or sociopaths, who typically seem not to have compassion for others — have self-compassion? Narcissists seem to "love" themselves, but is that the same as having compassion towards oneself? What are some common misconceptions about self-compassion?

Kristin Neff is currently an Associate Professor of Educational Psychology at the University of Texas at Austin. She is a pioneer in the field of self-compassion research, conducting the first empirical studies on self-compassion nearly twenty years ago. She has been recognized as one of the most influential researchers in psychology worldwide. She is author of the bestselling book Self-Compassion. Along with her colleague Chris Germer, she developed the Mindful Self-Compassion program, taught internationally, and co-wrote The Mindful Self-Compassion Workbook. Her newest book is Fierce Self-Compassion: How Women Can Harness Kindness to Speak Up, Claim Their Power, and Thrive. For more info, go to self-compassion.org.

Further reading

Center for Mindful Self-compassion
"Self-Compassion, Self-Esteem, and Well-Being" by Kristin Neff

Staff

Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
Josh Castle — Producer
Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
Uri Bram — Factotum
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Why it's so hard to have confidence that charities are doing good (with Elie Hassenfeld)

16 mars 2022 | 116 min

Read the full transcript here.

How does GiveWell's approach to charity differ from other charitable organizations? Why does GiveWell list such a small number of recommended charities? How does GiveWell handle the fact that different moral frameworks measure causes differently? Why has GiveWell increased its preference for health-related causes over time? How does GiveWell weight QALYs and DALYs? How much does GiveWell rely on a priori moral philosophy versus people's actual moral intuitions? Why does GiveWell have such low levels of confidence in some of its most highly-recommended charities or interventions? What should someone do if they want to be more confident that their giving is actually having a positive impact? Why do expected values usually tend to drop as more information is gathered? How does GiveWell think about second-order effects? How much good does the median charity do? Why is it so hard to determine how impactful charities are? Many charities report on the effectiveness of individual projects, but why don't more of them report on their effectiveness overall as an organization? Venture capitalists often diversify their portfolios as much as possible because they know that, even though most startups will fail, one unicorn can repay their investments many times over; so, in a similar way, why doesn't GiveWell fund as many projects as possible rather than focusing on a few high performers? Why doesn't GiveWell recommend more animal charities? Does quantification sometimes go too far?

Elie Hassenfeld co-founded GiveWell in 2007 and currently serves as its CEO. He is responsible for setting GiveWell's strategic vision and has grown the organization into a leading funder in global health and poverty alleviation, directing over $500 million annually to high-impact giving opportunities. Since 2007, GiveWell has directed more than $1 billion to outstanding charities. Elie co-led the development of GiveWell's research methodology and guides the research team's agenda. He has also worked closely with donors to help them define their giving strategies and invest toward them. Prior to founding GiveWell, Elie worked in the hedge fund industry. He graduated from Columbia University in 2004 with a B.A. in religion.

Staff

Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
Josh Castle — Producer
Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
Uri Bram — Factotum
Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist

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Shovelgloves and extreme moderation (with Reinhard Engels)

9 mars 2022 | 55 min

Mental models that apply across disciplines (with Blas Moros)

2 mars 2022 | 44 min

Accessing pure consciousness at any moment (with Loch Kelly)

23 februari 2022 | 96 min

Fight, flight, freeze, fawn (with Sasha Raskin)

16 februari 2022 | 77 min

The science of addiction (with Crystal Dilworth)

10 februari 2022 | 72 min

Read the full transcript here.

Why do people get addicted to cigarettes? Should people use nicotine as a stimulant (without smoking it, of course)? What percent of people have a hard time quitting smoking once they start? What genetic factors predispose a person to nicotine addiction? How addictive is alcohol relative to nicotine? Is vaping less addictive and/or less negatively impactful on cardiovascular health than smoking? How can we train scientists to be better leaders? How valuable are graduate students to their advisors, mentors, and departments in various fields? How can researchers tell better stories about the data they've collected? Why are there fewer girls and women in science? Why can educators do to encourage more girls and women to work in scientific fields? Will increasing diversity in science improve science?

Dr. Crystal Dilworth is a neuroscientist, dancer/choreographer, and television host on a mission to help others better understand themselves and their world. Saturday Mornings you can find her on CBS as Mission Unstoppable's "Dr. Brain" or weekly on Voice of America as the host of VOA-Tek. Behind the camera, the Caltech-trained neuroscientist coaches both public and private organizations in how to foster meaningful communication and understanding within internal teams and externally to the public, and she loves leveraging her unconventional background in the performing arts to creatively produce large-scale public events championing science and technology. Dr. Dilworth is an AAAS IF/THEN Ambassador for STEM and lives in Jakarta, Indonesia with her husband and two cats. Find her on Instagram at @PolycrystalhD.

Further reading

Staff

Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
Josh Castle — Producer
Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
Uri Bram — Factotum
Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist

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Evidence, reason, and compassion for all sentient beings (with Jamie Woodhouse)

2 februari 2022 | 77 min

Can the economy grow indefinitely? (with Alyssa Vance)

26 januari 2022 | 77 min

Read the full transcript here.

How is the economy like a differential equation? Can the economy grow indefinitely? Are there economic attractor states? Or are economic outcomes chaotic and/or extremely sensitive to certain variables? What should we know about progress in genetic engineering? Can you (and should you) do genetic engineering in your garage? What are some common mistakes people make when thinking about AI? Should we expect AI abilities to converge in some domains and diverge in others? Why do we sometimes collectively forget important ideas? Have we as a species grown wiser over the course of our history? How can we form high-trust communities on the internet? In the context of social media, is ease of access at cross-purposes with membership screening and/or costs, or is it possible to have both? What should we make of ephemeral communities that appear briefly, do something huge, and then disappear (like the WallStreetBets subreddit phenomenon)? What are the various types of misinformation being used in the US, Russia, China, and elsewhere?

Alyssa Vance is an engineer of AI systems, a futurist, and an entrepreneur. She is currently serving as an independent consultant for a variety of organizations interested in AI. She was previously the first employee at Apprente, which developed conversational AI for the McDonald's drive-thru and was acquired by McDonald's in 2019. She was a founder of CandleCRM, MetaMed, and GetBitcoin, and served as Executive Director of the World Transhumanist Association. She also hosts the Long Term World Improvement mailing list and other groups for discussing future technology. Alyssa has recently joined Twitter at @alyssamvance and can be reached via email at [email protected].

Staff

Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
Josh Castle — Producer
Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
Uri Bram — Factotum
Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist

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How many minds do you have? (with Kaj Sotala)

19 januari 2022 | 88 min

Are you a wamb or a nerd? (with Tom Chivers)

12 januari 2022 | 56 min

Behind the scenes of the online dating world (with Tom Quisel)

5 januari 2022 | 81 min

Read the full transcript here.

How do men and women differ in their approach to online dating? How do online dating services deal with the fact that men send many times more messages to women than women send to men? How can online dating services' recommendation algorithms avoid merely recommending the most attractive people over and over to everyone? To what extent do users of such services agree about what makes a person attractive? How do transactions and interactions on these platforms shape the way users pursue short-term and/or long-term relationships? What surprising effects emerge in aggregate as a result of these transactions? How well do people really know themselves? How well do they know what kind of relationship partners would actually make them happy? How does gay male online dating (especially on Grindr) differ from heterosexual online dating? What makes for effective management and/or leadership? Is anger a useful tool for managers? How should managers weight the importance of various hiring tools (e.g., résumés, interviews, work samples, personality tests, contract periods, etc.)? What are some tools for designing highly effective self-experiments? Is there alien life in the universe? Should we be trying to reach out to aliens?

Tom Quisel is the CTO at Grindr, where he practices servant leadership and works to build a culture that values diversity, collaboration, ownership, and quality craft. He's passionate about making a positive impact on the world and is an online dating veteran with 9 years of experience in the industry, including 2.5 years as OkCupid's CTO. He has a BS in Computer Science from Carnegie Mellon, with a background in software engineering, distributed systems, data science, and machine learning. Tom lives in Santa Barbara and loves to mountain bike, explore philosophy with friends, and pursue life-long learning.

Staff

Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
Josh Castle — Producer
Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
Uri Bram — Factotum
Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist

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The clash between social justice and anti-wokeness (with Amber Dawn and Holly Elmore)

22 december 2021 | 139 min

Is it okay for anyone to have opinions about marginalized communities even if they're not a part of those communities? Do people in marginalized groups have special knowledge (especially tacit knowledge) about their groups that can't be known or experienced from the outside? To what extent can we know and empathize with others' experiences regardless of differences in race, socioeconomic status, gender, sexual orientation, etc.? Do oppression and discrimination tend to be caused more by active bigotry or by mere lack of care and awareness? What information (if any) does intersectionality fail to capture about people? Is describing someone intersectionally an end in itself, or is it just a way of correcting (or over-correcting) for the suppression of marginalized voices? Should ideas be discussed absent their context or implications (see: decoupling norms vs. contextualizing norms)? To what extent should we focus on individuals versus groups when attempting to fix inequities? Are individuals or groups responsible for redressing the atrocities of their ancestors? Should people be "cancelled" for their views (including their past views, even if their current views are different)? To what extent is the shifting of moral ground around social justice issues unpredictable and/or disorienting? How can democratic societies balance the need to debate difficult ideas with the risk of giving reprehensible ideas a platform? Should rules about offensiveness be enforced from the top down (e.g., from a government, a school administration, a company's board of directors, or even parents)? Is offense only "in the eye of the beholder"?

Amber Dawn is an itinerant UChicago PhD student working on Plato and Lucretius. She is interested in philosophy, emotions, mental health and therapy, effective altruism, ethics, gender, sex, anarchism, and social justice. You can find more about Amber on Facebook, Twitter, or Medium, or you can email her at [email protected].

Holly Elmore is an effective altruist with a background in evolutionary biology. After organizing EA groups at Harvard throughout her PhD, she left academia and conducts EA-style wild animal welfare research. She witnessed the rise of wokism from within American universities, and has followed developments in social justice culture both as an adversary and an interested amateur sociologist. You can find more about her at her blog.

Amber and Holly would like for us to remind you that the views they express in this conversation are their own and do not reflect the views held by their employers.

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Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
Josh Castle — Producer
Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
Uri Bram — Factotum

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Tyler's three laws and twelve rules (with Tyler Cowen)

15 december 2021 | 57 min

Freezing to (not) death: cryonics and the quest for immortality (with Max Marty)

8 december 2021 | 94 min

The pre/trans fallacy, and why you should learn the skill of coaching (with Eben Pagan)

1 december 2021 | 84 min

What does humanity need to survive after a global catastrophe? (with David Denkenberger)

24 november 2021 | 56 min

To be successful, should you focus on your strengths or your weaknesses? (with Anna Paley)

17 november 2021 | 73 min

When is suffering good? (with Paul Bloom)

11 november 2021 | 86 min

Read the full transcript here.

When (if ever) can suffering be good? Is there an optimal ratio of pleasure to pain? What is motivational pluralism? Can large, positive incentives be coercive? (For example, is it coercive to offer to pay someone enormous amounts of money to do something relatively benign or even painful or immoral?) How can moving from making judgments about a person's actions to making judgments about their character solve certain moral puzzles? Why do we sometimes make seemingly irrational judgments about the relative badness of certain actions? How does the level of controversy around an action factor into how much we publicly disapprove of it? What are the differences between compassion and empathy? Is antisocial personality disorder (AKA psychopathy or sociopathy) defined only by a lack of empathy? How have humans evolved (or not) to detect and mitigate the effects of others who feel no remorse? Is altruism especially vulnerable to remorseless people? What are the differences between narcissists and sociopaths?

Paul Bloom is Professor of Psychology at the University of Toronto, and Brooks and Suzanne Ragen Professor Emeritus of Psychology at Yale University. Paul Bloom studies how children and adults make sense of the world, with special focus on pleasure, morality, religion, fiction, and art. He has won numerous awards for his research and teaching. He is past-president of the Society for Philosophy and Psychology, and co-editor of Behavioral and Brain Sciences. He has written for scientific journals such as Nature and Science, and for popular outlets such as The New York Times, The Guardian, The New Yorker, and The Atlantic Monthly. He is the author of six books, including his most recent, The Sweet Spot: The Pleasures of Suffering and the Search for Meaning. Find more about him at paulbloom.net, or follow him on Twitter at @paulbloomatyale.

Further reading

"Friction in Relationships from Misunderstanding the Mind" by Spencer Greenberg

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Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
Josh Castle — Producer
Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
Uri Bram — Factotum
Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist

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What causes progress? And how can we stop it from slowing? (with Jason Crawford)

3 november 2021 | 86 min

Clearer paths and sharper ideas (with Lynette Bye)

28 oktober 2021 | 61 min

How to measure impact, and why we may have all been doing it wrong (with Michael Plant)

24 oktober 2021 | 70 min

Read the full transcript here.

Researchers in the Effective Altruism movement often view their work through a utilitarian lens, so why haven't they traditionally paid much attention to the psychological research into subjective wellbeing (i.e., people's self-reported levels of happiness, life satisfaction, feelings of purpose and meaning in life, etc.)? Are such subjective measures reliable and accurate? Or rather, which such measures are the most reliable and accurate? What are the pros and cons of using QALYs and DALYs to quantify wellbeing? Why is there sometimes a disconnect between the projected level of subjective wellbeing of a health condition and its actual level (e.g., some people can learn to manage and cope with "major" diseases, but some people with "minor" conditions like depression or anxiety might be in a constant state of agony)? What are some new and promising approaches to quantifying wellbeing? The EA movement typically uses the criteria of scale, neglectedness, and tractability for prioritizing cause areas; is that framework still relevant and useful? How do those criteria apply on a personal level? And how do those criteria taken together differ conceptually from cost-effectiveness? How effective are psychological interventions at improving subjective wellbeing? How well do such interventions work in different cultures? How can subjective wellbeing measures be improved? How can philosophers help us do good better?

Michael Plant is the Founder and Director of the Happier Lives Institute, a non-profit research institute that searches for the most cost-effective ways to increase global well-being. Michael is also a Research Fellow at the Wellbeing Research Centre, Oxford. He has a PhD in Philosophy from Oxford, and his thesis, entitled Doing Good Badly? Philosophical Issues Related to Effective Altruism, was supervised by Peter Singer and Hilary Greaves.

Staff

Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
Josh Castle — Producer
Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
Uri Bram — Factotum
Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist

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Major and minor scales of consciousness (with Andrés Gomez Emilsson)

13 oktober 2021 | 78 min

The art of being a creative person (with Georgia Shreve)

7 oktober 2021 | 58 min

An interview with an A.I. (with GPT-3 and Jeremy Nixon)

30 september 2021 | 114 min

Read the full transcript here.

What is machine learning? What are neural networks? How can humans interpret the meaning or functionality of the various layers of a neural network? What is a transformer, and how does it build on the idea of a neural network? Does a transformer have a conceptual advantage over neural nets, or is a transformer basically the equivalent of neural nets plus a lot of compute power? Why have we started hearing so much about neural nets in just the last few years even though they've existed conceptually for many decades? What kind of ML model is GPT-3? What learning sub-tasks are encapsulated in the process of learning how to autocomplete text? What is "few-shot" learning? What is the difference between GPT-2 and GPT-3? How big of a deal is GPT-3? Right now, GPT-3's responses are not guaranteed to contain true statements; is there a way to train future GPT or similar models to say only true things (or to indicate levels of confidence in the truthfulness of its statements)? Should people whose jobs revolve around writing or summarizing text be worried about being replaced by GPT-3? What are the relevant copyright issues related to text generation models? A website's "robots.txt" file or a "noindex" HTML attribute in its pages' meta tags tells web crawlers which content they can and cannot access; could a similar solution exist for writers, programmers, and others who want to limit or prevent their text from being used as training data for models like GPT-3? What are some of the scarier features of text generation models? What does the creation of models like GPT-3 tell us (if anything) about how and when we might create artificial general intelligence?

Learn more about GPT-3 here. And learn more about Jeremy Nixon and listen to his episode here.

Further reading

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Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
Josh Castle — Producer
Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
Uri Bram — Factotum
Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist

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Beyond cognitive biases: improving judgment by reducing noise (with Daniel Kahneman)

23 september 2021 | 75 min

Read the full transcript here.

How can we apply the theory of measurement accuracy to human judgments? How can cognitive biases affect both the bias term and the noise term in measurement error? How much noise should we expect in judgments of various kinds? Is there reason to think that machines will eventually make better decisions than humans in all domains? How does machine decision-making differ (if at all) from human decision-making? In what domains should we work to reduce variance in decision-making? If machines learn use human decisions as training data, then to what extent will human biases become "baked into" machine decisions? And can such biases be compensated for? Are there any domains where human judgment will always be preferable to machine judgment? What does the "fragile families" study tell us about the limits of predicting life outcomes? What does good decision "hygiene" look like? Why do people focus more on bias than noise when trying to reduce error? To what extent can people improve their decision-making abilities? How can we recognize good ideas when we have them? Humans aren't fully rational, but are they irrational?

Daniel Kahneman is Professor of Psychology and Public Affairs Emeritus at the Princeton School of Public and International Affairs, the Eugene Higgins Professor of Psychology Emeritus at Princeton University, and a fellow of the Center for Rationality at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem. Dr. Kahneman has held the position of professor of psychology at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem (1970-1978), the University of British Columbia (1978-1986), and the University of California, Berkeley (1986-1994). He is a member of the National Academy of Science, the Philosophical Society, the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and is a fellow of the American Psychological Association, the American Psychological Society, the Society of Experimental Psychologists, and the Econometric Society. He has been the recipient of many awards, among them the Distinguished Scientific Contribution Award of the American Psychological Association (1982) and the Grawemeyer Prize (2002), both jointly with Amos Tversky, the Warren Medal of the Society of Experimental Psychologists (1995), the Hilgard Award for Career Contributions to General Psychology (1995), the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences (2002), the Lifetime Contribution Award of the American Psychological Association (2007), and the Presidential Medal of Freedom (2013). He holds honorary degrees from numerous universities. Find out more about him here.

Here's the link to the Thought Saver deck that accompanies this episode: https://app.thoughtsaver.com/embed/JGXcbe19e1?start=1&end=17

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Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
Josh Castle — Producer
Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
Uri Bram — Factotum
Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist

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How to use your career to have a large impact (with Ben Todd)

15 september 2021 | 88 min

Why does psychotherapy work (when it works at all)? (with Scott Miller)

8 september 2021 | 76 min

How broken is social science? (with Matt Grossman)

2 september 2021 | 65 min

How to communicate better with the people in your life (with Sara Ness)

28 augusti 2021 | 87 min

How to hack your own brain (with Elizabeth Ricker)

21 augusti 2021 | 78 min

Why do civilizations collapse? And is ours next? (with Samo Burja)

19 augusti 2021 | 89 min

Utopia on earth and morality without guilt (with Joe Carlsmith)

11 augusti 2021 | 77 min

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4 augusti 2021 | 61 min

The secrets of effective learning (with Andy Matuschak)

29 juli 2021 | 81 min

Exploring your shadow and healing your traumas (with Aurora Quinn-Elmore)

25 juli 2021 | 72 min

Dances with robots (with Catie Cuan)

21 juli 2021 | 68 min

Heaven and hell on earth: a trip to the limits of human consciousness (with Anthony David Adams)

18 juli 2021 | 109 min

How can we save the world? (with Toby Ord)

15 juli 2021 | 66 min

Risk-Driven Development and Decentralization (with Satvik Beri)

11 juli 2021 | 77 min

Statistics Intuitions and Social Science Reproducibility (with Stuart Buck)

7 juli 2021 | 73 min

Genomics and Health Outcomes (with Noor Siddiqui)

4 juli 2021 | 57 min

Rationality and Cognitive Science (with Anna Riedl)

1 juli 2021 | 58 min

Self-Improvement and Behavior Change (with James Norris)

26 juni 2021 | 81 min

Everyday Statistics and Climate Change Strategies (with Cassandra Xia)

23 juni 2021 | 92 min

Conscious Processes and Intelligence (with Richard Nisbett)

19 juni 2021 | 76 min

Educational Restructuring and Investing (with Matt Greenfield)

17 juni 2021 | 66 min

Chinese Culture and Love Addiction (with Ava King)

12 juni 2021 | 66 min

User Engagement and Expert Intuition (with Rob Haisfield)

9 juni 2021 | 71 min

Psychological Models and Parenting (with Divia Eden)

5 juni 2021 | 99 min

Productive Conversations and Feedback Loops (with Julia Carvalho)

3 juni 2021 | 75 min

EA Efficacy and Community Norms (with Stefan Schubert)

30 maj 2021 | 70 min

Explanatory Depth and Growth Mindset (with Daniel Greene)

26 maj 2021 | 78 min

AI Safety and Solutions (with Robert Miles)

22 maj 2021 | 85 min

Online and IRL Relationships (with Steve Dean)

19 maj 2021 | 93 min

Utilitarianism and Its Flavors (with Nick Beckstead)

16 maj 2021 | 91 min

Cults and Social Needs (with Alice Mottola)

12 maj 2021 | 76 min

History and Longevity (with Will Eden)

8 maj 2021 | 113 min

Read the full transcript here.

What are the benefits of studying history? How do we find useful historical analyses? Can learning about history save us from repeating it? Is America decaying as a nation, empire, and/or leading world power? Generally speaking, what causes empires to fail? Is the aging and decay experienced by organic bodies analogous to the aging and decay experienced by an empire (or by any complex system, for that matter)? What are all the reasons organisms age, decay, and die? What are the most promising avenues of exploration in longevity research? What kind of stressors on our bodies are beneficial? How accurate is the efficient market hypothesis? What kinds of catalysts force a market to value assets at their "intrinsic" value? How rational are markets?

William Eden is currently an entrepreneur-in-residence at biotech founder and investor Errik Anderson's family office, Ulysses Diversified. Previously, he worked with Peter Thiel for six years and jointly led the Life Science Investments group at Thiel Capital focused on early-stage breakthrough biomedical technologies. His previous roles include the Chief Analytics Officer of Azumio, a digital health startup, and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York during the 2008 global financial crisis. His Twitter handle is @WilliamAEden, and he and his wife have additional essays and podcasts and more at their blog.

NOTE: After the recording, Will contacted us with the following correction. There is a family lineage with a congenital growth hormone deficiency called Laron Syndrome that lives in villages in Ecuador, but he had incorrectly identified them as indigenous people. They actually migrated there from Spain, where other members of the family still live with the same genetic mutation. They suffer from fewer diseases of aging like cancer and diabetes, but their lifespan is indeed no longer than average due to vulnerability to accidents and injuries. This serves to demonstrate the tradeoff between longevity and robustness under free living conditions for these types of anti-aging interventions.

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Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
Josh Castle — Producer
Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
Uri Bram — Factotum
Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist

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Knowledge Management and Deugenesis (with Jeremy Nixon)

5 maj 2021 | 101 min

Crypto Pros and Cons (with Sam Bankman-Fried)

29 april 2021 | 69 min

Behavior Change and Interpersonal Connection (with Ting Jiang)

21 april 2021 | 67 min

Read the full transcript here.

How does a behavioral scientist apply her knowledge to her own life? What fraction of our behaviors are deliberative, and what fraction are automatic? In what ways are we insufficiently scientific in our attempts to diagnose behavior problems? To what extent is introspection important for behavior change? Can behavior change take place without relatively accurate quantification and measurement? (For example, we know exact values for our bank account balance or our weight on the scale, but we don't know exact values for our level of happiness or how much progress we've made in meditation. To encourage behavior change in those more nebulous domains, is it useful to assign numbers to everything?) Can (and should) "sacred" things be quantified? What's the difference between customs and norms? Why do we often fail to generalize our own skills from one domain to other domains? How can we use stories to encourage behavior change? What are some new and different ways of connecting with others, especially during a pandemic? How can everyday items or events be tweaked to encourage behavior change?

Ting Jiang is a global expert and thought leader in behavioral change and innovation. She received her Ph.D. in Experimental Economics but publishes findings across a broad range of disciplines. For the past 5 years, until January 1st, 2021, she served as a principal at Dan Ariely's behavioral science lab at Duke University, during which she led projects globally helping diverse organizations, companies, and tech startups to improve the behavioral uptake and retention of programs and products. The work she is most proud of is her own attempt to develop various science-based games for behavioral change, including a board game called "Healthy Money" for forming better spending and saving habits. Most recently, she's been calling for a collective reflection on whether the world is currently in the dark ages of human flourishing despite our advancement in tech and natural sciences. Find out more about her here.

Staff

Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
Josh Castle — Producer
Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
Uri Bram — Factotum
Janaisa Baril — Transcriptionist

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31 mars 2021 | 79 min

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27 januari 2021 | 72 min

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20 januari 2021 | 79 min

Sexuality and Dominance Hierarchies (with Malcolm Collins)

13 januari 2021 | 101 min

Self-Improvement and Research Ethics (with Rob Wiblin)

7 januari 2021 | 153 min

Antagonistic Learning and Civilization (with Duncan Sabien)

29 december 2020 | 100 min

Worldviews and Framing (with Elizabeth Kim)

22 december 2020 | 53 min

Intelligence and Creativity (with Scott Barry Kaufman)

15 december 2020 | 64 min

Scientific Progress and the Replication Crisis (with Geoff Anders)

9 december 2020 | 91 min

Enlightenment and Sex Work (with Aella)

2 december 2020 | 100 min

Scientific Progress and Political Feedback Loops (with Michael Nielsen)

24 november 2020 | 83 min

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17 november 2020 | 60 min

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10 november 2020 | 75 min

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4 november 2020 | 136 min

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27 oktober 2020 | 110 min

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13 oktober 2020 | 92 min

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13 oktober 2020 | 119 min

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13 oktober 2020 | 70 min

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13 oktober 2020 | 69 min

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13 oktober 2020 | 59 min

Education and Charity (with Uri Bram)

13 oktober 2020 | 52 min

Are universities a cult? Do charitable interventions like de-worming work? How much should we trust the conclusion of well-respected charity evaluators like GiveWell?

Uri is the publisher of The Browser and The Listener, the world's favourite curation newsletters, and the author of Thinking Statistically and The Business of Big Data. Uri can be found at uribram.com or [email protected].

As we mention in the audio, this episode includes a critique of Givewell. Givewell were kind enough to listen to our recording and send us a reply. Here's their reply:

We're excited to see this level of detailed engagement with our research. As Uri and Spencer note, one of the key reasons we share the full analysis behind our recommendations is precisely this: inviting fresh perspectives and debate on the conclusions we reach.
We operate in an expected value framework when recommending top charities. We recommend deworming programs because of the possibility that deworming may have a large impact on long-term economic well-being. At less than $1 per treatment, we think it's a pretty good bet. We've discussed our views publicly over the years, such as in our blog post titled "Deworming might have huge impact, but might have close to zero impact."
The case for deworming's long-term benefits does rely on a relatively small number of studies. And the mechanisms by which it has long-term impact are unclear. But when we account for these uncertainties in our impact estimates, it still remains promising.
We've also supported research to better understand the impacts of deworming. We funded part of a study that measured the economic welfare of children who received deworming treatments 20 years later. This work was recently published, and at a high level, seems to support the story of deworming's long-term effects.
Thanks again for discussing this topic—it's an important and thorny one!

Givewell also mentioned some corrections to some of the claims made in the episode. They said:

[We] noticed some comments outside of the deworming conversation that didn't reflect our views and flagged a few of the more important ones below.
In addition to the groups you listed, our current list of top charities includes Malaria Consortium's seasonal malaria chemoprevention program and Helen Keller International's vitamin A supplementation program. The full list is here: https://www.givewell.org/charities/top-charities.
The two outcomes we recommend our current list of top charities for are averting deaths (not improving nutrition) and increasing incomes/consumption. We are open to considering additional outcomes in the future.
Uri said the following in regards to cash transfers: "I might be wrong but I think GiveWell doesn't count—if you took the money and spent it on a one-off way that didn't increase your long-term wealth or income—then GiveWell wouldn't count that." This is not accurate. We model short-term as well as longer-term benefits to cash transfers. This is reflected in our cost-effectiveness model and discussed in this blog post.

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Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
Josh Castle — Producer
Uri Bram — Factotum

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Clearer Thinking with Spencer Greenberg

Clearer Thinking is a podcast about ideas that truly matter.

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Human evolution and AI evolution (with Dwarkesh Patel)

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