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This is a conversation with Michael Beckley, a professor at Tufts University and a co-author of one the best books on China in recent years called the Danger Zone. In the book Michael made two big predictions: first, that China’s economic model will run into major problems - which seems to be already happening - and result in the end of China’s economic and political rise. And second, that this will make China much more dangerous and aggressive and make an invasion of Taiwan much more likely - which we still have to wait to see.
In this conversation, I wanted to revisit those predictions with Michael to ask how does he see China’s rise and decline today. Whether China’s economic problems can be reversed, how are they changing Beijing’s strategic calculus or how likely is a major war in the late 2020s. It's, in my view, one of the most interesting conversations I’ve had on the podcast so far - and I hope you will enjoy it as much as I did.