“AI 2027” — Top Superforecaster's Imminent Doom Scenario

AI 2027, a bombshell new paper by the AI Futures Project, is a highly plausible scenario of the next few years of AI progress. I like this paper so much that I made a whole episode about it.

00:00 Overview of AI 2027

05:13 2025: Stumbling Agents

16:23 2026: Advanced Agents

21:49 2027: The Intelligence Explosion

29:13 AI's Initial Exploits and OpenBrain's Secrecy

30:41 Agent-3 and the Rise of Superhuman Engineering

37:05 The Creation and Deception of Agent-5

44:56 The Race Scenario: Humanity's Downfall

48:58 The Slowdown Scenario: A Glimmer of Hope

53:49 Final Thoughts

Show Notes

The website: https://ai-2027.com

Scott Alexander’s blog: https://astralcodexten.com

Daniel Kokotajlo’s previous predictions from 2021 about 2026: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6Xgy6CAf2jqHhynHL/what-2026-looks-like

Watch the Lethal Intelligence Guide, the ultimate introduction to AI x-risk! https://www.youtube.com/@lethal-intelligence

PauseAI, the volunteer organization I’m part of: https://pauseai.info

Join the PauseAI Discord — https://discord.gg/2XXWXvErfA — and say hi to me in the #doom-debates-podcast channel!

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