Preparing for my AI Doom Debate with Robin Hanson

This episode is a comprehensive preparation session for my upcoming debate on AI doom with the legendary Robin Hanson.

Robin’s P(doom) is <1% while mine is 50%. How do we reconcile this?

I’ve researched past debates, blogs, tweets, and scholarly discussions related to AI doom, and plan to focus our debate on the cruxes of disagreement between Robin’s position and my own Eliezer Yudkowsky-like position.

Key topics include the probability of humanity’s extinction due to uncontrollable AGI, alignment strategies, AI capabilities and timelines, the impact of AI advancements, and various predictions made by Hanson.

00:00 Introduction

03:37 Opening Statement

04:29 Value-Extinction Spectrum

05:34 Future AI Capabilities

08:23 AI Timelines

13:23 What can't current AIs do

15:48 Architecture/Algorithms vs. Content

17:40 Cyc

18:55 Is intelligence many different things, or one thing?

19:31 Goal-Completeness

20:44 AIXI

22:10 Convergence in AI systems

23:02 Foom

26:00 Outside view: Extrapolating robust trends

26:18 Salient Events Timeline

30:56 Eliezer's claim about meta-levels affecting capability growth rates

33:53 My claim - the optimization power model trumps these outside-view trends

35:19 Aren't there many other possible outside views?

37:03 Is alignment feasible?

40:14 What's the warning shot that would make you concerned?

41:07 Future Foom evidence?

44:59 How else have Robin's views changed in the last decade?

Doom Debates catalogues all the different stops where people get off the "doom train", all the different reasons people haven’t (yet) followed the train of logic to the conclusion that humanity is doomed.

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