The Jobs Market is on the Brink

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I said the payroll number is wrong and Jay Powell of all people agrees. But if the real question is how wrong, that's where the debate is even though it should already be settled. There is plenty of evidence the US is tilting in the direction of the HH Survey and unemployment rate. And that includes the rates market which ignored the FOMC's hawkish dots. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Jay Powell's Press Conference
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q3ZE5tF_IMU

CNBC Quotes from Jay Powell Press Conference
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/12/fed-meeting-today-live-updates-on-june-fed-rate-decision.html

Politico Biden’s economy: Good metrics, bad vibes, few levers
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/06/07/biden-has-an-economic-story-to-tell-and-yet-00162338

Guardian Majority of Americans wrongly believe US is in recession – and most blame Biden
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/may/22/poll-economy-recession-biden

BLS Business Employment Dynamics Summary
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cewbd.nr0.htm

Table 4'
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cewbd.t04.htm

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