We don't need even close to these adverse scenarios to cause major havoc.

While Q1 GDP was revised higher for the US, that's looking back at what is now ancient history. Looking ahead at Q2 and beyond, not just recession perhaps worse in huge part because of what's being uncovered behind the growing credit crunch. The Fed's stress test uncovered substantial future risks.  

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Federal Reserve Stress Test Results
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/bcreg20230628a.htm
https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/2023-dfast-results-20230628.pdf

FINMA and the SNB issue statement on market uncertainty
https://www.finma.ch/en/~/media/finma/dokumente/dokumentencenter/8news/medienmitteilungen/2023/03/20230315-mm-statement.pdf?sc_lang=en&hash=9E7D5CBED9519B41450D7D37643B482D

“Testimony Concerning the Role of Federal Regulators: Lessons from the Credit Crisis for the Future of Regulation.” Testimony before the Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, U.S. House of Representatives
https://www.sec.gov/news/testimony/2008/

Speech by Ignazio Angeloni, Member of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, Conference on “Banks, Systemic Risk, Measurement and Mitigation”
https://www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu/press/speeches/date/2017/html/se170317.en.html

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Jeffrey Snider (The Promoter) is acting as a promoter for an investment advisory firm, Atlas Financial Advisors, Inc. (AFA). Jeffrey Snider is affiliated with AFA as a promoter only and is not in any way giving investment advice or recommendations on behalf of AFA. The Promoter is being compensated by a fee arrangement: The Promoter will receive compensation on a quarterly basis, based on the increase in account openings that can be reasonably attributed to the Promoter's activity. The Promoter will not be receiving a portion of any advisory fees. The Promoter has an incentive to recommend the Adviser because the Promoter is being compensated. The opinions expressed on this site and in these videos are those solely of Jeffrey Snider and Eurodollar University and do not represent those of AFA.