Geopolitics Decanted by Silverado

"Russia Shifting Import Sources Amid U.S. and Allied Export Restrictions" report download link: https://silverado.org/news/report-russia-shifting-import-sources-amid-u-s-and-allied-export-restrictions

Was there ever a grain shortage crisis caused by the Russian blockade of Ukrainian exports? Dmitri Alperovitch gets the real story from Dr. Scott Irwin, Professor of Agricultural and Consumer Economics at University of Illinois and an international leader in the field of agricultural economics. Dr. Irwin discusses the true state of grain markets and the causes behind the recent increase in food prices and what can be done about it.

Topics covered:

• How likely is the current grain crisis to lead to famine?
• What is the impact of resumption of Ukraine's grain exports after a deal brokered by Turkey?
• Why were wheat prices increasing even before the Russian invasion?
• Ukraine's wheat is a tiny fraction of global production. Why is it having such outsize effects on price?
• Can substitute crops make up for missing wheat?
• What will be the impact of fertilizer shortage on food markets?
• What can governments do to alleviate future food crises?

Episode produced by Patrick Gray (risky.biz)

Dmitri Alperovitch discusses the impact of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian military facilities and logistics in Crimea with Michael Kofman (Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analysis). And Dmitri's theory on the Russian masterplan for Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant

Topics covered:

• $10,000 Chinese UAVs are Ukraine's new asymmetric weapon in the war of attrition in Ukraine
• Russia's plan for Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant
• Ukrainian planned counteroffensives and the state of Russian progress in the Donbas
• Why is Moscow changing commanders in this war every few months?
• Effects of Russian shadow mobilization campaign on current war and long-term force structure
• Russian artillery ammo stocks
• Russian attempts to rebuild Infantry Fighting Vehicle (IFV) inventory

In this podcast Dmitri Alperovitch interviews Sergii Grabskyi, a Reserve Colonel in the Ukrainian military, about Ukraine’s upcoming counteroffensive.
Michael Kofman, Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analysis, also joins the show to share his latest analysis of what’s happening on the ground in Ukraine.

Topics covered:

• Ukraine's weapons needs for a successful counteroffensive and the challenges they will face
• Strategic objective of the counteroffensive and how can it help turn the tide of the war
• Why now is the window of opportunity for a counteroffensive and why it may be narrowing
• How Ukraine preserved their best troops despite high combat losses
• The strategic importance of partisan movement in the south and its command and control by Ukrainian special forces
• The story of how Russians captured Luhansk oblast by shelling their own forces
• How maneuver defense stopped the Russian offensive in the Donbas
• How the Russians underestimated Ukrainian forces and the importance of NATO training
• The lessons the Russians have learned since their earlier failures and their plan in the third phase of the war
• Why long range missiles are not currently a priority for Ukraine
• Morale impact of Russian apparent torture and execution of POWs

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with  energy markets and russian oil and gas sector expert Sergey Vakulenko (formerly with Gazprom Neft, Royal Dutch Shell and IHS Markit) about how Russia is engineering an energy crisis in Europe, with spillover effects all over the world.

Topics covered:

• When it comes to gas, who needs whom more: Russia or Europe?
• What are Europe's options to survive the winter without Russian gas? Which countries will be most affected?
• What game is Russia playing by cutting Nord Stream 1  flows?
• Why are Poland, Finland and Bulgaria  cutoff from direct purchases of Russian gas while others like Germany are still buying?
• How long would it take to build a pipeline from the Russian gas fields in the West to China to remove dependence on European customers?
• Can Russia continue to operate and maintain old wells and drill new ones without Western servicing firms?
• What is the impact of Russian gas cutoffs on fertilizer production and global food supplies?
• How much is it hurting Russia to sell oil at substantial discount to China and India?

Follow the speakers on Twitter @DAlperovitch, @SergeyVakulenk0

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Retired UK Air Marshall Greg Bagwell, former Deputy Commander of Operations at RAF Air Command, about how the West can provide Ukraine with modern aircraft platforms such as F-16s.

Topics covered:

• Why F-16 is one of the best planes to provide to Ukraine today
• How to transport planes into Ukraine without triggering Russian retaliation
• How Ukraine pilots can be trained within weeks on the basic missions most needed for current phase of the war
• How to quickly train and assist remotely the ground crews that will maintain the fleet
• How Ukraine can be helped in repair and replacement of parts for the planes
• What munitions can be provided for the missions to be undertaken
• What options exist for helicopter aid

July 10, 2022: Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Michael Kofman (Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analysis) about the new developments in the war in Ukraine on Twitter Spaces.
Topics covered:

• HIMARS: Are they making a strategic difference or will Russia find a way to blunt their effects?
• Can ATACMS 300km range missiles break the Russian Black Sea Blockade?
• Why was Russia so obsessed with trying (unsuccessfully) to hold Snake Island?
• Is Russia executing a real operational pause before another assault on Donetsk oblast in Donbas?
• How long will it take for Russia to rebuild its combat losses?
• Are prisoners with military experience the future of the Russian military?
• What's happening with the Russian Kharkiv offensive?
• Has Ukraine launched the Kherson offensive or are we still seeing just preparations for one?
• How much is the war really costing Russia?

June 26, 2022: Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Michael Kofman (Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analysis) and Henry Schlottman (OSINT war analyst, US army veteran) about the new developments in the war in Ukraine on Twitter Spaces. Topics covered:

• Is Belarus getting dragged into this war?
• Who is running Russia's war? Why are commanders being replaced?
• How best can Ukraine use the new HIMARS artillery systems that are now arriving? What difference are they likely to make on the battlefield?
• Is Russia in danger of running out of ammunition?
• Is Russian advance stalling in the Donbas?
• Can Ukraine target the Crimean Bridge bridge and what are the implications of their strikes on energy and rail infrastructure in Russia and Crimea?
• Is Russia still having logistics issues in the Donbas offensive?
• How is Wagner performing in the fight and why did Prigozhin get a Hero of Russia medal?
• Can Western defense industrial base keep up with Ukrainian ammo and weaponry needs and expenditures?

Follow the speakers on Twitter: @DAlperovitch, @KofmanMichael, @HN_Schlottman

June 19, 2022: Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Michael Kofman (Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analysis) about the new developments in the war in Ukraine on Twitter Spaces. Topics covered:

- Near-term prospects for Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south to take back Kherson

- Will the new Western artillery systems arrive in time to make a difference for the current fight in Donbas

- Why is maintenance the biggest issue for Ukrainian deliveries of new Western weapons

- How fast can the Ukrainian ports be demined to allow for sea export of grain and oilseeds

- Why haven't we heard more about the impact of Switchblade kamikaze drones that everyone was so excited about just weeks ago

- What is the state of exhaustion/force rotations on Russian and Ukrainian sides

- What's happening on Snake Island right now

- Does Russia have the troops to make trouble for Moldova or Ukraine from Transnistria

- Is Russia running out of Infantry Fighting Vehicles and artillery shells

- Is a ceasefire likely in the near future

- What are the lessons learned from this war for the US military

Follow the speakers on Twitter: @DAlperovitch and @KofmanMichael

Follow the speakers on Twitter: @DAlperovitch, @KofmanMichael and @RALee85

Recent article by Michael Kofman and Rob Lee discussed on the podcast:  https://warontherocks.com/2022/06/not-built-for-purpose-the-russian-militarys-ill-fated-force-design/

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Follow the speakers on Twitter: @DAlperovitch and @KofmanMichael

Follow the speakers on Twitter: @DAlperovitch, @KofmanMichael and @RALee85

Follow the speakers on Twitter: @DAlperovitch, @KofmanMichael and @RALee85