“Disempowerment spirals as a likely mechanism for existential catastrophe” by Raymond D, owencb

When complex systems fail, it is often because they have succumbed to what we call "disempowerment spirals" — self-reinforcing feedback loops where an initial threat progressively undermines the system's capacity to respond, leading to accelerating vulnerability and potential collapse.

Consider a city gradually falling under the control of organized crime. The criminal organization doesn't simply overpower existing institutions through sheer force. Rather, it systematically weakens the city's response mechanisms: intimidating witnesses, corrupting law enforcement, and cultivating a reputation that silences opposition. With each incremental weakening of response capacity, the criminal faction acquires more power to further dismantle resistance, creating a downward spiral that can eventually reach a point of no return.

This basic pattern appears across many different domains and scales:

• HIV progressively destroys the immune system designed to fight it.
• Anxiety, burnout, or depression deplete executive function, which is required for taking steps to address [...]

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Outline:

(02:49) Common Themes

(02:52) Three Types of Response Capacity

(04:31) Broad Disempowerment

(05:12) Polycrises

(06:06) Critical Threshold

(07:47) Disempowerment spirals and existential risk

The original text contained 1 footnote which was omitted from this narration.

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First published:
April 10th, 2025

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KtBXDakpwy6myBrKd/disempowerment-spirals-as-a-likely-mechanism-for-existential

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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