“Evaluating ‘What 2026 Looks Like’ So Far” by Jonny Spicer

Summary

In 2021, @Daniel Koktajlo wrote What 2026 Looks Like, in which he sketched a possible version of each year from 2022 - 2026. In his words:

The goal is to write out a detailed future history (“trajectory”) that is as realistic (to [him]) as [he] can currently manage

Given it's now 2025, I evaluated all of the predictions contained in the years 2022-2024, and subsequently tried to see if o3-mini could automate the process.

In my opinion, the results are impressive (NB these are the human gradings of his predictions):

 Totally correct Ambiguous or partially correctTotally incorrectTotal20227007202354110202474516Total198633

Given the scenarios Daniel gave were intended as simply one way in which things might turn out, rather than offered as concrete predictions, I was surprised that over half were completely correct, and I think he foresees the pace of progress remarkably accurately.

Experimenting with o3-mini produced showed some initial promise, but the [...]

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Outline:

(00:05) Summary

(01:38) Methodology

(03:59) Results

(04:02) How accurate are Daniel's predictions so far?

(07:14) Can LLMs extract and resolve predictions?

(08:03) Extraction

(12:49) Resolution

(13:47) Next Steps

(15:17) Appendix

(15:20) Prompts

(15:30) Raw data

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First published:
February 24th, 2025

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/u9Kr97di29CkMvjaj/evaluating-what-2026-looks-like-so-far

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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