“Racing Towards Fusion and AI” by Jeffrey Heninger

Racing Towards a New Technology Is a Collective Choice, Not an Inevitable Consequence of Incentives

 

Before I started thinking about AI policy, I was working in the trying-to-get-fusion industry.

There are some significant similarities between AI and fusion.

• Both are emerging technologies.
• Both have the potential to have significant effects on the global economy.
• Both are dominated by O(10) major actors, which include both private companies and governments.
• Both currently require a capital expenditure of O($1 billion) to make something impressive.
• Both of the leading companies are about the same size, adjusting for when the companies were founded.
• Both feel futuristic.

The incentive structures for the two industries feel similar.

However, the culture of these two industries feels very different. Fusion companies are not racing in the way that AI companies are. People who are trying to build a fusion power plant are trying to sell electricity [...]

The original text contained 16 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

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First published:
February 7th, 2025

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vqsXncwxsxti5L9Ne/racing-towards-fusion-and-ai

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.