“Sentinel’s Global Risks Weekly Roundup #11/2025. Trump invokes Alien Enemies Act, Chinese invasion barges deployed in exercise.” by NunoSempere

Top items:

• Trump invoked the Alien Enemies Act against Venezuelans and the Tren de Aragua gang. He subsequently deported 238 alleged members to El Salvador, ignoring a court order.
• Chinese “invasion barges” were deployed in an exercise.
• The US resumed military aid to Ukraine, and a ceasefire in the next six months at 50/50

Forecaster Estimates

Forecasters, on aggregate, think that a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine in the next six months is a coin toss (48%, ranging from 35% to 70%). Polymarket's forecast is higher, at 61%, for a ceasefire of any duration by July.

Forecasters also consider it a coin toss (aggregate of 49%; ranging from 28% to 70%) whether an agreement to expand France's nuclear umbrella will be reached by 2027 such that French nuclear weapons will be deployed in another European country by 2030. They emphasize that the US is revealing itself to be an [...]

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Outline:

(00:37) Forecaster Estimates

(01:40) Geopolitics

(01:44) United States

(04:14) Europe

(05:39) Middle East

(07:48) Africa

(08:27) Asia

(09:55) Biorisk

(10:10) Tech and AI

(13:03) Climate

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First published:
March 17th, 2025

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7p9WB5NsrQiqKEbPA/sentinel-s-global-risks-weekly-roundup-11-2025-trump-invokes

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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