“2023 Prediction Evaluations” by Zvi

It is that time of the year. One must ask not only whether predictions were right or wrong, whether one won or lost, but what one was and should have been thinking, whether or not good decisions were made, whether the market made sense.

The main subject will be the 2023 ACX Predictions, where I performed buy/sell/hold along with sharing my logic. The numbers quoted are from mid-February 2023, first Manifold, then Metaculus.

Section 1: World Politics

1. Will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia at the end of 2023 (85%/90%)?

Last year I thought markets were too confident Putin would keep power. This year I think this is not confident enough and Metaculus is more accurate at 90%. Metaculus is also doing a better job adjusting as time passes. Things seem to be stabilizing, and every day without big bad news is good [...]

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Outline:

(00:31) Section 1: World Politics

(12:16) Section 2: Politics

(26:20) Section 3: Tech and Economics

(50:52) Overall Results

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First published:
January 8th, 2024

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6o98z3QMAQSkHf3gp/2023-prediction-evaluations

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.