“2024 ACX Predictions: Blind/Buy/Sell/Hold” by Zvi

My 2023 ACX predictions showed a clear lack of confidence in taking on the market. I won 30 markets for an average of +185 each, and lost 12 for an average loss of -185 each1. When one goes 30-12, hitting a 71% mark versus the about 58% average price initially paid, that is worth noticing. It is possible that I generally benefited from 2023 being a year where not much happened outside of AI, but I think it's time to know what we really think.

That means this year I’m going to add a phase, where I predict blind. Blind means I’m not allowed to look at any prediction markets. I can still look up facts, and financial markets are fair game, but nothing beyond that. Only after that will I look at Manifold. Metaculus makes this viable, as they have the ACX questions without listing probabilities.

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Outline:

(01:47) International Politics

(11:13) American Electoral Politics

(20:48) US Politics and Government (excluding elections and AI )

(28:56) Economics

(37:10) Science (Mostly Rocketry for Some Reason)

(42:32) AI

(46:15) Hard Fork: Bonus Buy/Sell/Hold

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First published:
January 9th, 2024

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7j9JXpGvXNowCkhdf/2024-acx-predictions-blind-buy-sell-hold

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.