“AI #27: Portents of Gemini” by Zvi

By all reports, and as one would expect, Google’s Gemini looks to be substantially superior to GPT-4. We now have more details on that, and also word that Google plans to deploy it in December, Manifold gives it 82% to happen this year and similar probability of being superior to GPT-4 on release.

I indeed expect this to happen on both counts. This is not too long from now, but also this is AI #27 and Bard still sucks, Google has been taking its sweet time getting its act together. So now we have both the UK Summit and Gemini coming up within a few months, as well as major acceleration of chip shipments. If you are preparing to try and impact how things go, now might be a good time to get ready and keep your powder dry. If you are looking to build cool new AI [...]

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Outline:

(00:55) Table of Contents

(03:33) Language Models Offer Mundane Utility

(05:57) Language Models Don’t Offer Mundane Utility

(10:07) GPT-4 Real This Time

(11:17) Fun with Image Generation

(11:57) Deepfaketown and Botpocalypse Soon

(13:18) They Took Our Jobs

(14:36) Get Involved

(14:59) Introducing

(15:48) In Other AI News

(17:25) China

(18:11) The Best Defense

(22:59) Portents of Gemini

(25:30) Quiet Speculations

(26:10) The Quest for Sane Regulations

(29:16) The Week in Audio

(37:55) Rhetorical Innovation

(49:44) Llama No One Is Stopping This

(59:39) No One Would Be So Stupid As To

(01:02:47) Aligning a Smarter Than Human Intelligence is Difficult

(01:12:36) People Are Worried About AI Killing Everyone

(01:17:21) Other People Are Not As Worried About AI Killing Everyone

(01:24:34) The Wit and Wisdom of Sam Altman

(01:25:40) The Lighter Side

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First published:
August 31st, 2023

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WLvboc66rBCNHwtRi/ai-27-portents-of-gemini

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.