“AI #45: To Be Determined” by Zvi

The first half of the week was filled with continued talk about the New York Times lawsuit against OpenAI, which I covered in its own post. Then that talk seemed to mostly die down,, and things were relatively quiet. We got a bunch of predictions for 2024, and I experimented with prediction markets for many of them.

Note that if you want to help contribute in a fun, free and low-key, participating in my prediction markets on Manifold is a way to do that. Each new participant in each market, even if small, adds intelligence, adds liquidity and provides me a tiny bonus. Also, of course, it is great to help get the word out to those who would be interested. Paid subscriptions and contributions to Balsa are of course also welcome.

I will hopefully be doing both a review of my 2023 predictions (mostly not about [...]

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Outline:

(01:05) Language Models Offer Mundane Utility

(02:22) Language Models Don’t Offer Mundane Utility

(03:39) GPT-4 Real This Time

(04:22) Fun with Image Generation

(06:12) Deepfaketown and Botpocalypse Soon

(06:21) They Took Our Jobs

(08:17) Get Involved

(09:08) Introducing

(09:34) In Other AI News

(10:16) Doom?

(15:02) Quiet Speculations

(29:06) The Quest for Sane Regulations

(29:10) The Week in Audio

(30:54) Rhetorical Innovation

(34:36) Politico Problems

(39:55) Cup of Coffee

(50:42) Aligning a Smarter Than Human Intelligence is Difficult

(51:42) People Are Worried About AI Killing Everyone

(52:56) Other People Are Not As Worried About AI Killing Everyone

(53:01) The Lighter Side

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First published:
January 4th, 2024

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NfXF6MZTgae766aoX/ai-45-to-be-determined

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.