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LessWrong posts by zvi

“Crime and Punishment #1” by Zvi

74 min • 21 april 2025

This seemed like a good next topic to spin off from monthlies and make into its own occasional series. There's certainly a lot to discuss regarding crime.

What I don’t include here, the same way I excluded it from the monthly, are the various crimes and other related activities that may or may not be taking place by the Trump administration or its allies. As I’ve said elsewhere, all of that is important, but I’ve made a decision not to cover it. This is about Ordinary Decent Crime.

Table of Contents

  1. Perception Versus Reality.
  2. The Case Violent Crime is Up Actually.
  3. Threats of Punishment.
  4. Property Crime Enforcement is Broken.
  5. The Problem of Disorder.
  6. Extreme Speeding as Disorder.
  7. The Fall of Extralegal and Illegible Enforcement.
  8. In America You Can Usually Just Keep Their Money.
  9. Police.
  10. Probation.
  11. [...]

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Outline:

(00:38) Perception Versus Reality

(04:21) The Case Violent Crime is Up Actually

(05:31) Threats of Punishment

(06:23) Property Crime Enforcement is Broken

(11:33) The Problem of Disorder

(13:59) Extreme Speeding as Disorder

(15:17) The Fall of Extralegal and Illegible Enforcement

(16:42) In America You Can Usually Just Keep Their Money

(18:53) Police

(25:56) Probation

(28:46) Genetic Databases

(30:56) Marijuana

(36:20) The Economics of Fentanyl

(37:26) Enforcement and the Lack Thereof

(41:20) Jails

(45:20) Criminals

(45:55) Causes of Crime

(46:33) Causes of Violence

(47:52) Homelessness

(48:44) Yay Trivial Inconveniences

(49:25) San Francisco

(54:24) Closing Down San Francisco

(55:47) A San Francisco Dispute

(59:31) Cleaning Up San Francisco

(01:03:20) Portland

(01:03:30) Those Who Do Not Help Themselves

(01:05:30) Solving for the Equilibrium (1)

(01:10:30) Solving for the Equilibrium (2)

(01:10:57) Lead

(01:12:36) Law & Order

(01:13:16) Look Out

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First published:
April 21st, 2025

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9TPEjLH7giv7PuHdc/crime-and-punishment-1

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Images from the article:

Graph showing probability of conviction before/after reform period, marked by vertical line.
Graph showing San Francisco's monthly driving infraction penalties from 2014-2023, titled
Interior of modern market showing alcohol, produce sections and checkout area.
Store warning sign showing marked price of $951 and theft consequences.
Bar graph:
Urban street scene showing StreetTaco restaurant sign and ATM location in Mission district.
Crime statistics comparison table showing rates between 2020 and 2025, with percentage changes.
Cannabis dispensary
Urban office buildings with Art Deco architectural features and street intersection.
Line graph showing crime estimates in England and Wales, 1981-2023.
News article screenshot. The headline reads:
Warning sign about shoplifting penalties, in English and Korean text.
Anthony Higney tweets:

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