“Fertility Roundup #3” by Zvi

Previous Fertility Roundups: #1, #2.

The pace seems to be doing this about twice a year. The actual situation changes slowly, so presumably the pace of interesting new things should slow down over time from here.

Demographics

This time around, a visualization. Where will the next 1,000 babies be born?

Population Trends

Scott Lincicome notes American population now expected to peak in 2080 at 369 million.

South Korea now down to 0.7 births per woman. The story of South Korea is told as a resounding success, of a country that made itself rich and prosperous. But what does it profit us, if we become nominally rich and prosperous, but with conditions so hostile that we cannot or will not bring children into them? If the rule you followed led you here, of what use was the rule? Why should others follow it?

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Outline:

(00:20) Demographics

(00:32) Population Trends

(04:31) Causes

(10:50) Causes: South Korea

(18:56) Causes: South Korea: Status Competition

(27:06) More Dakka

(33:38) Less But Nonzero Dakka

(35:31) Preferences

(37:11) Surrogacy

(38:47) Technology

(40:58) Insular High Fertility Cultures

(44:44) In Brief

(45:19) Cultural Trends

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First published:
April 2nd, 2024

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5k5FeFDCqXfLMj5SJ/fertility-roundup-3

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.