“On Dwarksh’s Podcast with Leopold Aschenbrenner” by Zvi

Previously: Quotes from Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness Paper

Dwarkesh Patel talked to Leopold Aschenbrenner for about four and a half hours.

The central discussion was the theses of his paper, Situational Awareness, which I offered quotes from earlier, with a focus on the consequences of AGI rather than whether AGI will happen soon. There are also a variety of other topics.

Thus, for the relevant sections of the podcast I am approaching this via roughly accepting the technological premise on capabilities and timelines, since they don’t discuss that. So the background is we presume straight lines on graphs will hold to get us to AGI and ASI (superintelligence), and this will allow us to generate a ‘drop in AI researcher’ that can then assist with further work. Then things go into ‘slow’ takeoff.

I am changing the order of the sections a bit. I put [...]

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Outline:

(03:30) The Trillion Dollar Cluster

(09:32) AGI 2028: The Return of History

(20:26) Espionage and American AI Supremacy

(31:23) Geopolitical Implications of AI

(39:19) State-Led vs. Private-Led AI

(55:30) Skipping Sections

(55:49) Intelligence Explosion

(01:06:53) Alignment

(01:19:56) Becoming Valedictorian of Columbia at 19

(01:26:31) On Germany

(01:34:38) Dwarkesh's Immigration Story

(01:36:19) Two Random Questions

(01:37:02) AGI Investment Fund

(01:43:14) Lessons From WW2

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First published:
June 10th, 2024

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DiMz82FwsHPugqxFD/on-dwarksh-s-podcast-with-leopold-aschenbrenner

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.