“The Leopold Model: Analysis and Reactions” by Zvi

Previously: On the Podcast, Quotes from the Paper

This is a post in three parts.

The first part is my attempt to condense Leopold Aschenbrenner's paper and model into its load bearing elements and core logic and dependencies.

Two versions here, a long version that attempts to compress with minimal loss, and a short version that gives the gist.

The second part goes over where I agree and disagree, and briefly explains why.

The third part is the summary of other people's reactions and related discussions, which will also include my own perspectives on related issues.

My goal is often to ask ‘what if.’ There is a lot I disagree with. For each subquestion, what would I think here, if the rest was accurate, or a lot of it was accurate?

Summary of Biggest Agreements and Disagreements

I had Leopold review [...]

---

Outline:

(00:54) Summary of Biggest Agreements and Disagreements

(04:58) Decision Theory is Important

(06:38) Part 1: Leopold's Model and Its Implications

(06:44) The Long Version

(17:03) The Short Version

(19:04) Which Assumptions Are How Load Bearing in This Model?

(28:40) Part 2: Where I Agree and Disagree

(56:46) Part 3: Reactions of Others

(56:51) The Basics

(01:00:37) A Clarification from Eliezer Yudkowsky

(01:05:56) Children of the Matrix

(01:10:52) Aligning a Smarter Than Human Intelligence is Difficult

(01:13:28) The Sacred Timeline

(01:17:51) The Need to Update

(01:20:17) Open Models and Insights Can Be Copied

(01:21:38) You Might Not Be Paranoid If They’re Really Out to Get You

(01:24:12) We Are All There Is

(01:25:39) The Inevitable Conflict

(01:38:50) There Are Only Least Bad Options

(01:40:24) A Really Big Deal

(01:41:53) What Gives You the Right?

(01:43:34) Random Other Thoughts

---

First published:
June 14th, 2024

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/b8u6nF5GAb6Ecttev/the-leopold-model-analysis-and-reactions

---

Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.