Merryn Talks Money

On this personal finance edition of Merryn Talks Money, host Merryn Somserset Webb is joined by Bloomberg reporters Harry Wilson and Eleanor Thornber to discuss the brewing crisis in Britain’s car finance industry. 

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In this limited series, Odd Lots explains some of the thorniest issues facing the US economy through the medium of … chicken. Chicken occupies a unique position in the US diet, but issues facing the poultry industry illustrate wider points about the development of the US economy and the decisions being made about how it's structured and who benefits from it. So why has the chicken industry evolved in the way that it has? What’s been driving the price increases in eggs and meat? And what does it all say about things like inflation, the labor market and the nature of American capitalism?

Check out Beak Capitalism on Odd Lots wherever you get your podcasts.

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Sam Bowman, founding editor of the online magazine Works in Progress, now part of payment processing platform Stripe, joins to discuss why he thinks Britain has stagnated and the main problems hindering growth. He also offers what he considers simple solutions for tackling those problems. 

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In this week's roundup, Merryn and Money Distilled newsletter author John Stepek discuss why UK farmers are angry about inheritance tax and what the latest UK inflation data suggests that the Bank of England's caution is justified.

DISCLAIMER: Merryn owns. crap farm. John owns an outrage farm that you can visit on X. 

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Hosts Merryn Somerset Webb and John Stepek speak with Bloomberg Opinion columnist Stuart Trow, author of “The Bluffer’s Guide to Economics,” about pension drawdown, which is a way to access your pension income when you retire while leaving the rest invested. Trow tackles how it works and offers suggestions on how best to manage it. 

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Economist Diane Coyle, currently the Bennett professor of public policy at the University of Cambridge, analyzes artificial intelligence’s potential economic impact—from people’s jobs to their productivity—on this week’s episode of Merryn Talks Money. 

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In this week's roundup, Merryn and Money Distilled newsletter author John Stepek discuss the latest Bitcoin boom in the wake of Donald J. Trump’s confirmation as President Elect. Is there more room for Bitcoin, Dogecoin, and other cryptocurrencies to rise? What headwinds are in store? And how much Bitcoin do Merryn and John own? 

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In this week’s personal finance edition of Merryn Talks Money, hosts Merryn Somerset Webb and John Stepek discuss a listener question about whether setting up a limited liability company is a good strategy to save on taxes in the UK. 

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On this episode of Merryn Talks Money, we discuss what the Republican’s second term means for the US, the UK and the Tesla CEO. Pippa Malmgren, economist, author and former adviser to Republican President George W. Bush and Helen Thomas, founder and chief executive of BlondeMoney join. 

They also discuss what UK-US relations will look like under Trump, how Britain’s exit from the European Union highlights the importance of the “special relationship” and how investors can profit from likely policy changes under the new US government—which includes the case for buying Bitcoin. 

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In this week's roundup, Merryn and Money Distilled newsletter author John Stepek chat about the unsurprising Bank of England decision to cut the UK's key interest rate to 4.75%. And they discuss the increase in the cost of university fees and once again explain why the student loan system is so broken. 

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In this week’s personal finance edition of Merryn Talks Money, hosts Merryn Somerset Webb and John Stepek discuss a listener question about the difference between UK defined benefit and defined contribution pensions.

The listener, Mustafa, said he originally had a defined benefit pension but has since moved over to a defined contribution scheme. He wants more information about each of the pension types and is starting to question the change. Webb and Stepek help him understand the pros and cons of each scheme and make it very clear what they might prefer for their own pensions.

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In a live-recorded episode of Merryn Talks Money, hosts Merryn Somerset Webb and John Stepek are joined in London by Bloomberg Head of Economics and Government Stephanie Flanders and former UK Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) Chief of Staff Andy King to discuss the first budget presented by Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves.  

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In this week's roundup, Merryn is back with Money Distilled newsletter author John Stepek. They focus on Japan. There was an election on Sunday that left the country without a clear winner for the first time since the 1990s. They discuss what that means for the world’s fourth-largest economy-- what it could mean for markets. They also discuss fertility rates in both Japan and the UK. 

Last chance to register: 

Join us at Bloomberg on Oct. 31, the morning after the Budget, for a taping of the podcast in front of an audience. Register here:

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In this week’s personal finance edition of Merryn Talks Money, hosts Merryn Somerset Webb and John Stepek answer a question from listener Hugo. He’s in his twenties and wondering what financial strategy graduates like him might find the most rewarding—from buying a house to investing in the equity market. 

Join us at Bloomberg on Oct. 31, the morning after the Budget, for a taping of the podcast in front of an audience. Register here:
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Author and economist David McWilliams joins Merryn to discuss his latest book Money: A Story of Humanity, and how the evolution of currency is central to the rise and fall of civilizations.

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In this week's roundup, Money Distilled newsletter author John Stepek is joined once again by Bloomberg Opinion's Marcus Ashworth to talk macro themes. They tackle gold’s inexorable rise, oil's fall, and more on the bond market. 

REMINDER: Join us at Bloomberg on Oct. 31, the morning after the Budget, for a taping of the podcast in front of an audience. Register here:

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Hot on the heels of last week’s personal finance edition of Merry Talks Money, where we discussed Lifetime Individual Savings Accounts, or ISAs, this episode of Merryn Talks Your Money takes on a different type of vehicle: Junior ISAs. Merryn and John Stepek dive into what these UK-unique savings products are and what exactly British investors are buying into when they open one. 

Join us at Bloomberg on Oct. 31, the morning after the Budget, for a taping of the podcast in front of an audience. Register here:

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When sports, business and culture collide, there’s often a deal to be made. Join Alex Rodriguez and Bloomberg correspondent Jason Kelly as they get the inside track from corporate titans, sports champions and game-changing entrepreneurs on investing, strategy, reinvention and the ones that got away. The Deal is a Bloomberg Podcasts and Bloomberg Originals series that’s passionate, relaxed, insightful and inspirational. If you think you know these icons, prepare to be surprised.

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“This has been an incredibly unique cycle, both in terms of the economy and the market,” says Liz Ann Sonders, managing director and chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, on this week’s episode of Merryn Talks Money. “Maybe that’s the ultimate understatement.”

Sonders joins Merryn Somerset Webb to discuss what is and isn’t driving such turbulent markets—from Mother Nature “wreaking havoc” with inflation data to artificial intelligence’s promised productivity spur—and how investors can navigate the turmoil. 

Join us at Bloomberg on Oct. 31, the morning after the Budget, for a taping of the podcast in front of an audience. Register here:

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In this week's roundup, Merryn speaks to Money Distilled newsletter author John Stepek about what it means if the government increases employers' national insurance contributions in the autumn budget. Plus, the latest price data came in well below target, but John explains why a lot of that was due to one volatile component. 

Join us at Bloomberg on Oct. 31, the morning after the Budget, for a taping of the podcast in front of an audience. Register here:

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On this personal finance edition of Merryn Talks Money, our hosts discuss Lifetime ISAs and their usefulness in buying a home.

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Don’t meet with management, ignore narratives and avoid highly rated businesses—taken together that sounds like a recipe for fund failure. But for Sean Peche, founder and portfolio manager at Ranmore Fund Management Ltd., it’s how he’s consistently outperformed benchmark indices. His Ranmore Global Equity Fund outperformed the MSCI World Index in 2022 and 2023. He joins Merryn this week to talk about his strategy and his market outlook. 

(Earlier podcast summary incorrectly identified the fund as a hedge fund. It is a long only fund.) 

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In this week's roundup, Money Distilled newsletter author John Stepek is joined by Bloomberg Opinion columnist Marcus Ashworth. They discuss the UK bond market, particularly the fact that UK 10-year yields are back above those of the US, what signal that sends and what's behind UK borrowing costs going up.

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On this personal finance edition of Merryn Talks Money, hosts Merryn Somerset Webb and John Stepek discuss diversifying your UK pension.   

They lay out scenarios in which your pension could be at risk, and the extent to which it would be protected by the Financial Services Compensation Scheme. And it’s not just important for pensions: these should be considerations for anyone with investments in passive funds and individual savings accounts (ISAs), Webb and Stepek say. Also on this episode, they tackle monitoring your broker’s solvency and how to gauge whether you would have “political protection” should they go bust. 

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Author and former Bank of England regulatory economist Dan Davies joins this week to discuss his new book, The Unaccountability Machine, which describes how the cost of large organisations deferring decision-making is a widening “accountability sink.”

As companies grow more complicated, the bigger the “sink” gets, he argues. “We’ve reached a crisis point.” 

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In this week's roundup, Merryn and Money Distilled newsletter author John Stepek discuss the stock market response to China's unprecedented stimulus package,  where we are now with the UK housing market, and who stands to benefit from the rally in prices and sales. 

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On this week’s personal finance edition of Merryn Talks Money, hosts Merryn Somerset Webb and John Stepek discuss pension drawdown with Tom McPhail, formerly the lead pensions spokesman for the investment platform Hargreaves Lansdown. He also led an external review of the Money and Pensions Service on behalf of the UK government’s Department for Work and Pensions. They tackle what drawdown is and how to avoid getting ripped off. 

But first, we have a look ahead to the autumn budget and what changes to pension pots could be on the horizon.  

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Foresight Group’s Bernard Fairman discusses the movement toward cleaner energy, a lucrative investment theme he sees playing out over 30 to 50 years.

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In this week's roundup, Merryn and Money Distilled newsletter author John Stepek discuss why the looming UK Budget has both consumers and businesses rattled, and whether Labour's performance at its party conference in Liverpool is doing enough to address the nervousness around investing in --and even living in-- the UK. They also discuss whether the relationship between the taxpayer and government is broken, and what danger is posed if it is.

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How realistic is achieving a 20% annual return as an amateur investor? On this week’s personal finance edition of podcast Merryn Talks Money, it doesn’t take long for hosts Merryn Somerset Webb and John Stepek to come to the conclusion that consistently outperforming the likes of Berkshire Hathway in your free time is far from likely. 

But the bigger question is how to set yourself a realistic but rewarding goal in the first place. On this episode, Webb and Stepek take personal investors back to the drawing board to discuss setting targets, picking a portfolio and—most importantly—avoiding panic. 

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Looking for long-term outperformance? Sell the US and buy the UK. That’s the view of Fidelity’s Alex Wright, who joins this week’s Merryn Talks Money. As Wright points out, the UK market is very good for a contrarian looking for value plus a little momentum. 

Also in the episode, Wright discusses the opportunities in banks, life insurers and tobacco companies, and why he thinks Tesco is a good buy. 

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In this week's roundup, Merryn and Money Distilled newsletter author John Stepek discuss the Federal Reserve's bold interest-rate cut -- half a percentage point --and what that means for markets. And they talk the Bank of England's decision to hold rates steady at 5 percent. 

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In this personal finance edition of Merryn Talks Money, Merryn and Money Distilled author John Stepek discuss how to approach your pension savings, from your first day of work. 

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Financial institutions have been a leading target for cyber crime since the dawn of the internet. But phishing schemes have become far more intricate, and cyber heists go beyond stealing money from a bank. JF Legault, Deputy CISO at J.P. Morgan Chase, explains how he leads cyber defense on the front lines of work — and lays out a strategy to transform teams into early detection networks. Then David Adrian from Chrome unpacks how web browsing protections, robust monitoring, and a real-time view of threats can fit into this kind of strategy to maximize resilience to a cyber attack.

This episode is sponsored by Chrome Enterprise.

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Mark Slater, chairman and chief investment officer of Slater Investments Ltd., joins host Merryn Somerset Webb to discuss the state of the UK stock market, the missed opportunity of the British Individual Savings Account (ISA) and why deep and liquid capital markets are vital to the health of the economy.

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In this week's roundup, Merryn and Money Distilled newsletter author John Stepek discuss:

1. Why Markets Are Still So Nervous
2.The Oil Price Slide - Red Flag or Small Mercy? 
3. The Shunning of UK Stocks May Be Near Its Limit 

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In this personal finance edition of Merryn Talks Money, Merryn Somerset Webb and John Stepek weigh the pros and cons of taking out a student loan.

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Merryn Somerset Webb and Diana Choyleva, chief economist at Enodo Economics, discuss what Choyleva considers one of the most important relationships in the world: US and China. What will change if Vice President Kamala Harris wins the November presidential election? Or Donald Trump? 

For more from Diana, check out these links: 
Enodo Economics Track Record: https://bit.ly/4dTckeS 
Diana's X profile: https://bit.ly/3Mpiesw

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We're trying something new: weekly episodes dedicated to Merryn and senior reporter and Money Distilled newsletter author John Stepek discussing the biggest stories in markets and economics at the moment. 

This episode looks at: 
1. Why gold is having a moment 
2. Why the UK is doing well, despite what the government says
3. And the two key fears behind the market's scary start to September

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From Day 3 of the Merryn Talks Money panel at The Edinburgh Fringe Festival from Adam Smith's Panmure House, our special panel discusses the economics behind net zero and how the UK isn’t on track to reach it by 2050. Panelists include Ed Conway, author of Material World: A Substantial Story of Our Past and Future, MacroStrategy founder James Ferguson and Bloomberg senior reporter John Stepek.

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From Day 2 of the Merryn Talks Money panel at The Edinburgh Fringe Festival from Adam Smith's Panmure House, our special panel discusses the Labour government’s effort to right the budgetary ship and why it may be doing it wrong. Panelists include Interactive Investor Chief Executive Officer Richard Wilson, British comedian Simon Evans and Bloomberg editor John Stepek. 

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Ruffer Fund Manager Duncan MacInnes, Dominic Frisby, British author and comedian, and Adam Dixon, Adam Smith Chair in Sustainable Capitalism join Merryn for the first day of her run at Adam Smith's Panmure House for the Edinburgh Fringe Festival. 

They tackle questions like are political leaders dulling innovation with regulation? Is too much protectionism bad for capitalism? And how should investors position themselves at a time when politicians are too focused on dividing the pie, rather than growing it? 

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Reality TV stars are freezing their eggs on camera. Lawmakers in DC are debating federal protection for IVF. Hundreds of millions of dollars are being invested in slick startups that market fertility treatments for all. But this rapid growth has revealed cracks in the system. Misconception, a new series from Bloomberg’s Prognosis, follows reporter Kristen V. Brown on her own intimate journey as she uncovers the business of fertility. Along the way, she finds a fractured industry — a profit-driven field of medicine that thrives on dueling messages of hope and fear as people gamble everything for a chance at a baby.

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Merryn and John are still OOO, enjoying their summer break, so on today's episode, we bring you a conversation between Stephanie Flanders and author and journalist Anne Applebaum about her latest book Autocracy, Inc: The Dictators Who Want to Run The World. 

She says a network of dictators from China to Venezuela could be the beneficiaries of a welcoming White House should Donald Trump win the US election come November and warns that the self-proclaimed dealmaker and convicted felon’s foreign policy may be more personal and even less predictable in a second term. 

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As a special treat whilst Merryn and John are away, we're bringing you the latest episode of Money Stuff: The Podcast.

Matt and Katie discuss Pershing Square USA's IPO, Citron Research's short-and-distort charges, bond market liquidity, and Katie's trip to Paris to watch running.

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On this week’s Merryn Talks Money, Lawrence McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report, joins to discuss his book How to Listen When Markets Speak: Risks, Myths and Investment Opportunities in a Radically Reshaped Economy. In the book, McDonald discusses the predictive model he developed in the aftermath of Lehman Brothers’ collapse, outlining actionable trading ideas for a radically reshaped economy. 

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Alec Cutler of Orbis Investments joins to explain what’s behind his fund’s decade of strong returns. Plus, senior reporter John Stepek joins to discuss what a Trump Presidency might mean for your money.

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Cape Wrath Capital’s Adam Rackley explains why on this week’s Merryn Talks Money. He also discusses why he thinks the time for UK small caps is here, what he currently holds and what might make it into the portfolio soon. 

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MacroStrategy’s James Ferguson tells Merryn Talks Money there are better places to put your money. Plus, senior reporter and Money Distilled author John Stepek on what a Labour government means for markets. 

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Activist investors are on a mission to persuade large British businesses to move from London’s stock market to those of New York. Liad Meidar, founder and managing partner of Gatemore Capital Management, joins this week’s episode of Merryn Talks Money to discuss what’s driving this westward push and the steps London can take to head it off. 

The main incentive for companies to drop London for the Big Apple is the valuation gap. FTSE 100 companies trade at little more than half of the valuation of those on the S&P 500 on a forward price-to-earnings basis. The reason? Meidar says it’s the cost of capital, the UK takeover code and how board members are incentivized. Address those issues, and you’re on your way to solving the problem. 

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On this week’s episode of Merryn Talks Money, Peter Kinsella, global head of FX strategy at Union Bancaire Privee Ubp SA, joins host Merryn Somerset Webb to explain the bullish case he and his team are making for the UK. Earlier this year, UBP opened an initial allocation towards Britain, a first for the Swiss private bank. 

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Regular listeners of the Merryn Talks Money podcast know that Merryn Somerset Webb usually ends her interviews with one question. If you had to invest all of your money into one of these assets, and hold it for the next 10 years, which would it be: Bitcoin or gold? In this week’s episode, she makes that question the foundation for a conversation with Charlie Morris, chief investment officer and founder of ByteTree, and Alexander Chartres, a fund manager at Ruffer. 

The episode was taped in front of audience at the Bloomberg offices in London. 

Want to see Merryn live? Check out her shows in Edinburgh at Fringe Festival this August! 

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On this week’s Merryn Talks Money, host Merryn Somerset Webb speaks with Daniel Avigad, partner and fund manager at Lansdowne Partners, a global investment management boutique entirely focused on active equities investing. He explains why Europe, though debt heavy and over-regulated, may actually be a place to put your money.

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If aging doesn’t happen all at once, why should retirement? That’s the question Merryn Somerset Webb explores with economist and author Andrew J Scott in this week’s episode of Merryn Talks Money. They discuss the opportunities and challenges of living longer in the 21st century, and the complications it may inflict on your financial planning. 

Plus, senior reporter John Stepek joins to talk the quadruple lock and the pensions bidding war. 

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A general election in the UK has been called for July 4. What does that mean for your money—and is there anything you can (or should) do in advance of a possible tide of new policy?

Those are the questions host Merryn Somerset Webb and senior reporter John Stepek explore with guests Helen Thomas, chief executive of macroeconomic consultancy BlondeMoney, and Tom McPhail, director of public affairs at The Lang Cat. 

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Tellworth’s John Warren tells Merryn Talks Money investors aren’t interested in a manager’s record versus an index—they just want to make money.

And it has happened again. Another new high for the FTSE 100. Merryn would love to talk about something else, but John Stepek can't. 

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On this week’s episode of Merryn Talks Money, London Business School professor and author Alex Edmans joins to discuss his new book, May Contain Lies. Edmans explains why he believes that stories, statistics and studies exploit pre-existing biases.

Plus, John Stepek joins to discuss yet another boring Bank of England rate decision. 

Emails to [email protected]

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Downing Fund Managers’ Simon Evan-Cook joins this week to talk about the case for active versus passive investing.

Cook says Jack Bogle, founder of The Vanguard Group and arguably the father of passive investing, did “more for individual wealth than anyone in history.” He deserved a knighthood for creating a low risk, reliable and comprehensive way of investing, Cook says. Nevertheless, the fund manager explains why he’s an investor in active funds, and discusses how to find the rare manager who might make you real money over the long term. 

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Get ready for a UK election this summer, says Helen Thomas, an ex-adviser to former Conservative finance minister George Osborne and CEO of BlondeMoney. On this week’s Merryn Talks Money, she joins Merryn Somerset Webb to explain her core scenario for the British government: Rishi Sunak will resign and hand over to Penny Mordaunt, the House of Commons leader. She will call a July 4th election — and Labour leader Keir Starmer will be prime minister by the middle of July.

Plus, John Stepek joins to discuss a new high in the FTSE 100 and Opinion Columnist Adrian Wooldridge joins the post-interview discussion to share his views on Helen's predictions. 

Love/Hate mail to the usual address: [email protected]

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Peel Hunt head of research Charles Hall tells Merryn that pension funds, wealth managers and individuals are pulling money out at an alarming rate. Plus, John Stepek talks inflation targets. 

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Many people contend that getting to net-zero emissions means smashing capitalism. While its destruction seems unlikely, another path would be to work within the capitalist system. Bloomberg senior reporter Akshat Rathi discusses the second path with Merryn Somerset Webb on this week’s episode of Merryn Talks Money. Together, they break down how business and government can work together in the fight against global warming.

Email us at [email protected]

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Merryn Talks Money will return with an all-new episode next Friday. In the meantime, here's an election-related episode from our friends at In the City. Host Francine Lacqua and Opinion columnist Adrian Wooldridge speak with Anthony Scaramucci, a Wall Street veteran and former communications director in Donald Trump’s White House. He joins to explain why he thinks a second Trump presidency would be “dangerous.” He also talks about why he isn’t voting for his former boss and why he doesn’t think the majority of Americans will either.

Find more at https://www.bloomberg.com/podcasts/series/in-the-city

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The Big Take from Bloomberg News brings you inside what’s shaping the world's economies with the smartest and most informed business reporters around the world. The context you need on the stories that can move markets. Every afternoon.

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Is capitalism dead? It’s getting there, says economist and author Bernard Connolly, but it isn’t dying a natural death. Instead, he contends it’s being killed off by the very people charged with keeping it safe and stable: central bankers. The author of The Rotten Heart of Europe joins this week’s Merryn Talks Money to explain.

Got questions or suggestions? Email us at [email protected]

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Julian Brigden of Macro Intelligence 2 Partners explains why you should get used to higher-for-longer when it comes to the Federal Reserve and interest rates. He tells us why the better the story, the bigger the bubble, why you should be nervous about Japan's big rally, and why Bitcoin is a brilliant trade, but a lousy store of wealth. 

Plus, John Stepek joins to talk gold and the price of a pint in central London. 

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Investment trusts occupy an interesting niche in the UK market. They are listed companies whose business is to own shares in other companies, or to own other assets. On this week’s episode of Merryn Talks Money, one of Britain’s top experts on the matter—Nick Greenwood, who co-manages the MIGO opportunities trust at Asset Value Investors—joins us to explain why they are a good buy right now. 

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The Deal, hosted by Alex Rodriguez and Jason Kelly, features intimate conversations with business titans, sports champions and game-changing entrepreneurs who reveal their investment philosophies, pivotal career moves and the ones that got away. From Bloomberg Podcasts and Bloomberg Originals, The Deal is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, iHeart, Bloomberg Carplay, or wherever you get your podcasts. You can also watch The Deal on Bloomberg Television, and Bloomberg Originals on YouTube.

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Investment and macroeconomic analyst Lyn Alden joins to explore the history and future of money. Discussing her book Broken Money: Why Our Financial System is Failing Us and How We Can Make it Better, Alden argues that our present monetary system has fallen behind technological developments. 

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If you’re lucky enough to get a bonus this season (sorry, Barclays bankers), it’s time to give some thought on how to successfully save or spend that money. Reporter Claire Ballentine joins to share the advice she sought out from several financial advisors. 

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Jim Reid, Deutsche Bank’s global head of economics and thematic research, joins to explain why he thinks a US downturn may still be on the way. He also thinks the US stock market is nearly the most concentrated it’s ever been, and that's not good. The top five stocks in the market make up almost a quarter of the market cap of the S&P 500, and combined with the next two, the “Magnificent 7” stocks are bigger than the Chinese market and four times the size of the UK market. 

Plus, Bloomberg Opinion columnist John Authers joins to debrief on Jim's comments and tell us why he thinks Japan has reached a point of no return. 

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Kathryn Porter, an energy consultant at Watt-Logic, contends the increase in mining needed to obtain critical minerals necessary for the energy transition “starts to actually look morally questionable” once the harms are factored in. 

She joins this week’s episode to discuss the matter and what she sees as a better approach to the green transition.  

Plus, Bloomberg energy reporter Rachel Morison joins to explain what the UK's current energy picture looks like, and what it could like in the future. 

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Automobiles are often the second-most expensive item people buy, and yet many go into the process unprepared. Ashley Winston, creator of Palmdale Car Finders joins this week’s bonus episode of Merryn Talks Money to offer advice on how to buy a used car successfully.

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There could be a “gold rush” in space, says Tim Marshall, author of The Future of Geography and a former diplomatic and foreign affairs editor at Sky News. Just as miners in the 19th century ventured into the lawless frontiers of North America, the presence of rare materials on the moon and elsewhere might fuel a race to harness the opportunities of outer space. “This might be one of the most profitable things in the 21st century.”

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The former Chancellor of the Exchequer explains that the Tory prime minister has been “liberated” to tackle the UK’s tax burden. But will he in the next budget? Kwarteng joins this week's episode to talk taxes, the "mini-budget" and what he thinks the Tory party should do before the next election. 

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Making parallels between the Spanish flu pandemic and Covid-19, the Wall Street veteran says a growth boom could be coming. He also discusses what he considers the arbitrary nature of central banks’ 2% inflation target, and why he sees Bitcoin as digital gold. 

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Just like gold, Bitcoin is `only worth what people will pay for it,’ says Oaktree Capital Management co-founder Howard Marks. He discusses crypto, explains why he believes the investment environment has undergone a “sea change,” and that we won’t be returning to the world of 0% interest rates in the foreseeable future. So instead of Bitcoin or gold, investors should be in a high-yield bond fund.

Find all of Howard's memos here: 
https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memos

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As you await this week's Merryn Talks Money conversation with OakTree's Howard Mark , check out another podcast from our team here at Bloomberg: Daybreak Europe Edition. Every episode delivers the day's top stories, with context, in just 15 minutes. Available every morning by 7am GMT in your feed.  

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All too many commentators on the UK economy are “default decliners,” according to Simon French, chief economist and head of research at UK investment bank Panmure Gordon: there’s nothing they can’t put a lousy spin on.

French and Janus Henderson portfolio manager Laura Foll join this week’s Merryn Talks Money to share their UK economic outlook for 2024. The data on the British economy isn’t looking bad at all, French says—certainly not as bad as the numbers coming out of Germany.

They also discuss their expectations for house prices and what sectors look promising right now. 

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Saxo Bank has published the latest in its annual series of “outrageous predictions,” and among the bigger calls is that American capitalism is ending. As US debt spirals ever upwards, the federal government will have to make government bonds tax-free, according to Chief Investment Officer Steen Jakobsen, who joins this week’s Merryn Talks Money to discuss the list. “The hand of government is just getting heavier and heavier,” he says.

Other predictions include a global Champions League owned by Saudi Arabia, a health crisis triggered by obesity drugs and a two percent European Union wealth tax.

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Professor and filmmaker Peter Byck says lessons from ancient bison herds can make cattle farming less of a climate disaster and more profitable. Merryn speaks to him about his latest 4-part documentary series "Roots So Deep (you can see the devil down there)" and the future of farming. 

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As the US and China vie for supremacy, Pippa Malmgren, economist, author and former adviser to US President George W. Bush, says the threat of conflict is growing. But there may be a silver lining.

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Bloomberg News Now is a comprehensive audio report on today's top stories. Listen for the latest news, whenever you want it, covering global business stories around the world.     

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Senior Reporter John Stepek joins Merryn to discuss her conversation with Kokou Agbo-Bloua, the Societe Generale global head of economics, cross-asset and quant research.

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Recessions aren’t like they used to be, says Kokou Agbo-Bloua,

The Societe Generale global head of economics, cross-asset and quant research contends fixed rate-debt and hefty cash piles have help companies develop short-term immunity to rising interest rates. So has the “kinetic velocity” of the vast fiscal stimulus of the last few years, he says. 

Agbo-Bloua argues on this week’s Merryn Talks Money that while all of that’s nice for now, it can’t last.

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Merryn and senior reporter John Stepek discuss the conversation with financial historian Edward Chancellor. 

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Financial historian Edward Chancellor tells Merryn how low rates resulted in capital being misallocated, and why that’s bad news for any soft landings. Plus, John Stepek tells investors how to get exposure to cheap UK equities. 

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Merryn and senior reporter John Stepek discuss the conversation with Argonaut’s Barry Norris. 

Links of research/stories referenced in the show and aftershow: 
https://www.argonautcapital.co.uk/stockumentaries/2023/10/26/britains-a-goner-with-the-wind/

https://www.these-islands.co.uk/publications/i390/an_inconvenient_fact.aspx

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/boost-for-offshore-wind-as-government-raises-maximum-prices-in-renewable-energy-auction

 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-14/siemens-energy-secures-15-billion-deal-to-shore-up-finances

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-27/faulty-wind-turbines-become-germany-s-16-billion-problem 

Link to Money Distilled newsletter: 
https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/uk-wealth

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Argonaut’s Barry Norris, whose fund has been making money by shorting renewable energy firms, joins Merryn Talks Money to explain.

Links of research/stories referenced in the show and aftershow: 
https://www.argonautcapital.co.uk/stockumentaries/2023/10/26/britains-a-goner-with-the-wind/

https://www.these-islands.co.uk/publications/i390/an_inconvenient_fact.aspx

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/boost-for-offshore-wind-as-government-raises-maximum-prices-in-renewable-energy-auction

 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-14/siemens-energy-secures-15-billion-deal-to-shore-up-finances

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-27/faulty-wind-turbines-become-germany-s-16-billion-problem 

Link to Money Distilled newsletter: 
https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/uk-wealth

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Merryn Somerset Webb and senior reporter John Stepek reflect on Asante’s assessment of the current EM landscape, debate his argument for choosing India over China as a place to invest and how he chooses what companies to put his money behind. 

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Emerging markets have had a bad stretch, but fund manager Jonathan Asante explains how picky investors can make them work. After taking a break from the industry in 2019, Asante is getting back in with the launch of the Chikara Global Emerging Markets Opportunities Fund.

Plus, John Stepek joins to talk about the leasehold reform mentioned in this week's King's Speech. 

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At Bloomberg, we’re always talking about the biggest business stories, and no one is bigger than Elon Musk.

In this new chat weekly show, host David Papadopoulos and a panel of guests including Businessweek’s Max Chafkin, Tesla reporter Dana Hull, Big Tech editor Sarah Frier, and more, will break down the most important stories on Musk and his empire. Listen wherever you get your podcasts.

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Cathie Wood says she would unambiguously bet on Bitcoin — rather than gold or cash — to safeguard against the possibility of deflation in the coming decade. The head of ARK Investment Management joins this week’s Merryn Talks Money podcast and reiterates her view that she expects an era of falling prices, backed by new technologies including artificial intelligence, electric vehicles, robotics, genomic sequencing and blockchain. It’s a view she’s held since 2021. 

On this week’s special aftershow episode, Somerset Webb and senior reporter John Stepek reflect on Wood’s convictions. For Stepek, Wood’s greatest edge is “being able to sell a good story to investors and make money from it.” But he points out, “that doesn’t mean that the investments she’s in are going to make money.”

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Despite a rough few years for her Innovation exchange-traded fund, Ark Investment Management founder Cathie Wood still sees a bright future. She joins this week to talk about her outlook, Tesla, the merits of Bitcoin and more. 

Plus, John Stepek joins to discuss the Bank of England's decision to keep rates unchanged. 

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In the UK, there are 70% fewer listed companies today than in 1996. Around the world, equity markets are getting progressively smaller as the number of publicly traded companies dwindles. So where have all the companies gone? In this week’s episode of Merryn Talks Money, Schroders’s Duncan Lamont and Douglas Abbott join host Merryn Somerset Webb to try and answer that question.

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Why have equity markets around the world, and in the UK in particular, been shrinking? According to Duncan Lamont and Douglas Abbott of Schroders, the answer is simple: a robust private equity industry means more companies are going private.

The two men joined Merryn Somerset Webb this week on the podcast Merryn Talks Money to discuss this state of affairs, both globally and in Britain where the situation has become extreme. There are 70% fewer listed companies in the UK today than was the case in 1996.

In this week’s aftershow, senior reporter John Stepek joins host Somerset Webb to discuss the solutions posited by Lamont and Abbott for tackling the disappearance of listed UK companies.

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The way the British government funds itself is complicated—ridden with fiscal drag and stealth levies. Everyone seems to hate the system for something, and there’s arguably a dire need for reform. That’s the case that was made by Institute for Fiscal Studies Director Paul Johnson during an episode of Merryn Talks Money this week. But what kind of changes are we talking about, and will they work? In this week’s special aftershow episode, Somerset Webb and senior reporter John Stepek unpack Johnson’s comments on the UK tax system and the changes he says are necessary to encourage growth across the country.

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Institute for Fiscal Studies Director Paul Johnson joins this week’s episode of Merryn Talks Money to explain how the seemingly impossible can be achieved.

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In a new series, Merryn Somerset Webb and John Stepek are examining housing markets across the globe to see how they’re holding up, and if there are any lessons we can read across to the UK. On this episode, they take a look at Germany with Bloomberg editor Benedikt Kammel and TV correspondent Oliver Crook, both in Berlin, and talk about the profitable world of subletting, the consequences of rent control and the country's fascination with Kleingartens.  

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The reckoning for markets is picking up speed, says GMO co-founder Jeremy Grantham, and as a result investors for should be wary of the US. On this week's aftershow, Merryn and John Stepek unpack Grantham's comments. 

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In 2021, Jeremy Grantham was telling anyone who would listen that global asset markets were in one of the biggest bubbles of all time—and that a reckoning was coming. That reckoning, he says, began the next year.

The co-founder of GMO LLC says that, while this reckoning recently took a break, it’s now back with a vengeance. Grantham joins this week’s episode of Merryn Talks Money to make the case that—as a result—no one should be invested in the US. In particular, he warns of the Russell 2000, with its high level of zombie companies and horrible debt levels. He calls it “the most vulnerable area” to rising rates. 

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If you think the US is heading for a soft landing, you might have another thing coming. That’s according to Seema Shah, the chief global strategist for Principal Asset Management. Despite a stream of data in recent weeks supporting the Federal Reserve’s best-case scenario, Shah argues there’s no way an economy can survive the super-fast shift in interest rates just seen without some relatively unpleasant repercussions. What would that future look like? Shah joins this week’s Merryn Talks Money to give her view of the landscape. 

Plus, Merryn and John Stepek discuss what Shah's predictions could mean for your portfolio, and John's tip of the week could earn you £1000 for a few hours of "admin work." 

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On this week’s Merryn Talks Money, host Merryn Somerset Webb poses the question of whether Brexit has actually harmed the UK economy as much as some may think.

The answer is discussed by her guests: Robert Colville, director of the Centre for Policy Studies, who voted for the UK to remain in the European Union, and economist Julian Jessop, who voted for the UK to leave. They agree that—in the short term—it’s hard to argue there isn’t some damage, given the friction the UK has created between itself and one of its major trading partners. Brexit has also added to political uncertainty in the country over the last few years. But what’s less certain, they say, is how much harm has been done by Brexit. 

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Matt Cole, head of Strive Asset Management, the anti-activism fund co-founded by GOP hopeful Vivek Ramaswamy, assails the use of sustainability targets in determining executive pay.  He joins this week’s Merryn Talks Money to discuss what he says is Strive’s mission— encouraging companies to “focus on excellence” rather than ESG mandates—and argues why he thinks ESG mandates threaten democracy. 

Plus, Money Distilled author and senior reporter John Stepek on why the UK pensions Triple Lock needs to go. 

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Senior reporter and Money Distilled author John Stepek joins Merryn to talk through the themes hit in the two panels at the Fringe Festival in Edinburgh. 

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This week, we bring you a lightly edited version of Merryn's panel at the Fringe Festival in Edinburgh called "The Butcher, the Brewer, the Baker and Merryn Somerset Webb." It was held at Panmure House--Adam Smith's residence between 1778 and 1790. We taped this panel on August 26, 2023. Guests include: Russell Napier, Anna MacDonald and James Anderson.

Sign up to John Stepek's Money Distilled: 
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Double feature this week--here is the second day of Merryn's panel "The Butcher, the Brewer, the Baker." Again, it was held at Panmure House--Adam Smith's residence between 1778 and 1790. We taped this panel on August 27, 2023. Guests include: Jim Mellon, Richard Wilson, Paul Johnson and Simon Evans.

Sign up to John Stepek's Money Distilled: 
https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/uk-wealth

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For your summer listening, the Merryn Talks Money team brings you an episode from another podcast you might like: In the City. This week, Francine Lacqua speaks to a panel of Bloomberg experts including Bloomberg Opinion columnist Marcus Ashworth, reporter Tom Rees, and Ana Andrade of Bloomberg Economics. They discuss the central bank’s strategy and what moves the monetary policy committee might make next.

Find In the City wherever you're listening, and subscribe.  

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This week, we bring you an earlier interview by Merryn Somerset Webb of Bloomberg's Merryn Talks Money, originally recorded in November 2021 as part of the MoneyWeek podcast. It's a conversation with Vivek Ramaswamy, author of Woke, Inc., biotech entrepreneur and a far-right candidate for the 2024 Republican Party nomination. We're republishing it because the populist themes discussed in the interview, like "woke capitalism" and "boycott culture," are back in the news. And so is Ramaswamy himself.  

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Is it time to get out of passive funds and switch to their active brethren? Or should you dump equities entirely and find a nice savings account that pays 4%? While the latter means you won’t be maintaining the real value of your capital, at least you won’t lose too much of it. And what of silver or gold, or perhaps even Bitcoin? If you had to choose one, which would it be?

And, just to ask, how angry should UK investors be with the Bank of England for forcing them to think about all of this? Or that the central bank left quantitative tightening too late and lost a fortune on their bond portfolio?

In this special ask-us-anything episode of Merryn Talks Money, host Merryn Somerset Webb and senior reporter John Stepek try, with the help of reporters Joe Easton and Eddie Spence and Bloomberg Opinion columnist Marcus Ashworth, to give some answers. No one chose Bitcoin over real money and no one stepped up to defend the Bank of England. But there wasn’t 100% agreement on the rest. Listen in for the conflicts, some summer reading suggestions—and a few reasons why you should watch the Barbie movie.

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Former Governor of the Bank of England Mervyn King says the central bank hasn’t been covering itself in glory of late, and that’s partly thanks to it falling victim to groupthink. The economics profession is jammed with brilliant people, he argues on this week’s episode of Merryn Talks Money, but unfortunately, they’ve all been taught the same thing: money has absolutely nothing to do with inflation.

Believing that was a “big mistake,” King says it’s brought the UK economy to where it is: inflation at multi-decade highs and the BOE having its credibility questioned. 

According to King, it’s likely that—despite all money supply indicators signaling the consumer price index will soon be falling fast—the BOE will keep raising rates and the UK will end up in a recession. The central bank will have made the misstep “in both directions over a period of three to four years.” He points out that whether rates go up or down a little over the next year won’t change the fact that they are likely to remain far above the historical lows to which people are accustomed. And that suggests all asset prices are going to have to come down relative to income.

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Inflation in the US is going to continue falling, says founder of Intertemporal Economics Brian Pellegrini, and much faster than one might think. He joins Merryn Somerset Webb on this week’s episode of Merryn Talks Money to share his predictions. Indeed, the rate of inflation will drop so quickly that it will unnerve the US Federal Reserve, he says.

Pellegrini contends signs of the decline can be seen in inventory levels, factory prices in China and the labor market. He argues that it’s also reasonable to think the Fed will turn to monetary easing in the not-too-distant future, claiming the central bank has become politicized.

Going forward, he warns that if interest rates stay too low this time around, there’s every chance of another inflation explosion. So what should investors do? Pellegrini says look at energy and look at agriculture. And if you ever have to choose between gold or Bitcoin, choose gold, he says. We can be almost certain people will still value gold in a decade, says Pellegrini. We can’t say that about Bitcoin.

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A decade ago, it was almost impossible for private investors to buy into private equity with the professionals. Most PE funds require huge minimum investments and long-term commitments. Good managers also don’t come cheap. Now, however, there are more ways for private investors to get into the unlisted sector. There are funds and trusts that buy individual private companies alongside listed ones, but there are also a few dedicated listed PE trusts.

One of them is Pantheon International. In this week’s Merryn Talks Money, Helen Steers, a partner in Pantheon’s European Investment Team and co-manager of its listed global PE investment trust, Pantheon International Plc, joins host Merryn Somerset Webb to discuss the merits of the sector. 

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The idea that history is cyclical is hardly new. But exactly what drives those cycles is up for debate. On this week’s Merryn Talks Money, Peter Turchin, author of End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites and the Path of Political Disintegration, suggests he’s solved the puzzle. 

Sign up to John Stepek's daily newsletter Money Distilled. https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/uk-wealth 

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The Bank of England has a vision for the digital pound. But first, it has to decide whether “Britcoin” is worth building in the first place. 

The BOE wants to make a cash-like alternative to the banknote—an instrument that works like cash and holds its value but won’t accrue interest or become a tool of speculators.

Right now, the bank is seeking input from Britons on whether such a central bank digital currency, or CBDC, can work or even makes sense. The period during which the BOE will take submissions began Feb. 7 and ends this week on June 30. At that point, the bank will evaluate all the advice it’s received and spend the next few years evaluating the technology and policy requirements before making a final decision. 

The person leading those efforts is Tom Mutton, head of the central bank’s CBDC project. Reporter Emily Nicolle spoke to Mutton about the BOE’s plans and you can hear some of that conversation on this week’s episode of Merryn Talks Money. Nicolle joins hosts Merryn Somerset Webb and Senior Reporter John Stepek to explain what a CBDC is, why the BOE sees value in developing one and what privacy concerns are being raised. 

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Active fund management isn’t just about maximizing upside for your shareholders, says Gervais Williams, head of equities at Premier Miton Investors. It’s also about minimizing downside risk. On this week’s Merryn Talks Money with Merryn Somerset Webb, he lays out just how to do that. 

Plus John Stepek joins to discuss the Bank of England's rate hike and inflation expectations. 

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There’s a material world people don’t think about all that often. It’s the one that provides the raw metals and chemicals that keep economies and societies moving.

But, as Ed Conway, the economics editor of Sky News and author of Material World, says, people need to start thinking about it a lot. He joins this week’s Merryn Talks Money to discuss the six materials that shape our lives, and how they will continue to do so for some time to come. 

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It’s fair to say that Japan is back and that its deflationary years are arguably behind it. The Asian nation may also be in just the right place to win big on today’s shifting geopolitical landscape.

Japan is full of high-quality companies, its stock market just hit a 33-year high, and overseas buying exploded last month. But despite these advantages, Japan’s market is still remarkably cheap. This according to David Mitchinson, fund manager at Zennor Asset Management, who joins Merryn Somerset Webb on this week’s Merryn Talks Money to explain why this rally in Tokyo’s equity market is longer-lived than previous rallies, and why the excitement around Japan is different this time. 

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The British government is woefully incompetent, says Burnbrae Chairman Jim Mellon. But of course that doesn’t mean you can’t buy UK equities. Mellon tells Merryn Somerset Webb on this week’s Merryn Talks Money that fossil fuel giants Shell and BP are good long-term investments, as are British defense stocks and financial services companies. 

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Famed contrarian investor Rob Arnott, co-founder of Research Affiliates, has said since the autumn of 2020 that UK shares are a great bargain—in particular so-called value stocks. In a conversation with Merryn Somerset Webb on this week’s Merryn Talks Money, he contends that’s still the case. The 2020s may be the “the decade for diversifiers,” he says—those prepared to move out of mainstream stocks and bonds and into assets that haven’t been talked about. 

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Inflation will eventually come down, but not rapidly or in the way it would have in previous years. So says Sharon Bell, managing director and senior European equity strategist at Goldman Sachs. She tells Merryn Somerset Webb on this week’s Merryn Talks Money that the reason for this state of affairs is specifically the tight labor market, and more broadly the demographics of the Western world.

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Wanted — your questions. Merryn and John will be doing an AMA (Ask Me/Us Anything) session at 1pm on May 24 — which also happens to be the day the UK’s next monthly inflation data reading comes out — over on the UK Markets Today blog. So what do you want to ask us? Send your questions to [email protected]. The earlier you send them, the better the odds you’ll get a sensible answer.

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Are we getting to the point where central banks are starting to break economies?Dario Perkins, Managing Director on the Global Macro team at TS Lombard, asks that question in his conversation this week with Merryn Somerset Webb on Merryn Talks Money. He says central banks are losing control of their own tools, and that policymakers may drive their economies into recession. 

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Investment trusts are special, says Simon Elliott, client director at J.P. Morgan Investment Trusts. They have a strong history of outperforming other types of investment vehicles. They provide pools of genuinely permanent long-term capital. They come with boards of directors whose specific job is to look out for investors. And on this week’s Merryn Talks Money, Elliott argues that, right now, an awful lot of them look like bargains.

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Dambisa Moyo is an economist and board member of Chevron and 3M. She’s also author of the 2018 book Edge of Chaos. In this week’s episode of Merryn Talks Money, Moyo and host Merryn Somerset Webb discuss whether the world has finally slipped off the edge. 

Moyo says it feels that way. Most economies were already stagnating before the pandemic struck, she says. Growth was trending downwards, productivity was a problem and it was hard to see how countries could all grow their GDPs at 3% a year.

Now there’s a new and urgent question, she says: what to do with people who won’t have work in an AI dominated economy. It won’t be long before pretty much every country—even the UK—has too many workers, she warns. There are, however, some easy wins Britain can notch, she says. Namely, lowering taxes and loosening regulations. The UK has gotten a bad rap thanks to Brexit and political uncertainty, Moyo says, but that doesn’t mean it can’t take advantage of its intellectual base and prime location.

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And as promised, Baroness Moyo's Maiden Speech.

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There’s not much you can do right now to dramatically improve your personal finances. But there’s at least one thing you can get on top of: cash savings accounts. You can now get 3 or 4% a year on your money if you look around. Take the easy win and move, says Simon Edelsten, manager of the Artemis Global Select fund, on this week’s episode of Merryn Talks Money. 

This shift is symptomatic of the change in all markets, he explains. Rising rates are good for cash savers (although 4% doesn’t totally cut it when inflation is 10%), but they’re horrible for other sectors of the financial world. There are many unexploded bombs out there, he says, noting you may want to keep your eyes on the private equity sector.

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During the Panic of 1907, J.P. Morgan came up with a clever plan to slow the ongoing bank run. He told his tellers to count all the money twice before handing it over. The more time paying out the cash took, the more time there was to work on rebuilding confidence before money ran out.

Of course, that kind of tactic can’t work anymore, Ruffer Investment Director Duncan MacInnes explained on this week’s Merryn Talks Money. Now, he says, people can use the internet to move money anywhere anytime in the blink of an eye, a fact the world witnessed in real time last month. “This,” MacInnes says, was “not your grandfather’s bank run.”

But he adds that, for savers, it doesn’t really matter. Governments are standing by to protect depositors to the hilt. What you do need to worry about is the risk elsewhere. In the last decade, everyone has jumped up the risk curve in a desperate effort to make returns, MacInnes says. He’s seen those who once only invested in public markets move to private, those who used to do private equity go to venture capital—and the venture capitalists move to crypto.

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Sebastian Lyon says he’d been expecting inflation to rise for a long time. So when prices began to tick up, his firm was ready. Now the founder and chief investment officer of Troy Asset Management says be prepared for inflation to stick around awhile.

Lyon says rates can still fall, and not every part of the economy that thrived in a low-interest environment will run into trouble. So what’s at risk? He says housing, growth stocks, bonds and banks for starters. In terms of protecting investor wealth, Lyon echoes others by suggesting gold.

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British pension funds used to have up to 55% of their assets in UK equities. That might have been too much. Now it’s more like 5% (and 70% in US equities). That might be too little. Why? Because those UK equities are cheap and US equities are expensive, explains Temple Bar Investment Trust Portfolio Manager Ian Lance on this week’s episode of Merryn Talks Money.

He also argues that there’s an inverse correlation between the price you pay for an equity and the return you get on it long term. The less you pay, the more you get. So why are most investors holding lots of expensive things and not many cheap things? It is the “maddest thing in markets,” he says. Maybe it’s time to do something else: Lance says buy UK oil and mining companies—and maybe Marks & Spencers, too. 

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In an earlier episode of Merryn Talks Money, reporter Neil Callanan joined the podcast to talk house prices. It’s fair to say his outlook for the UK housing market was not optimistic. It is, he said, entirely possible that prices across the UK will end this cycle down 40% in real terms (adjusted for inflation).

This week, Bloomberg Opinion writer Marcus Ashworth joined Merryn Somerset Webb and John Stepek to make a different case. He contends that the mortgage rates actually paid by buyers are nothing like the ones you see on the panicked pages of Sunday newspapers. Not only that, but UK planning rules have kept supply far too tight, he argues, turning it into a “cash-led” market.

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The world has been mired in a new Cold War for at least four years, according to Niall Ferguson, a columnist for Bloomberg Opinion and Milbank Family Senior Fellow. Ferguson joins this episode of Merryn Talks Money to discuss the implications for inflation, the Federal Reserve and how investors should navigate the current economic climate. 

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Inflation isn’t heading back to 2%, according to Pippa Malmgren, author and former adviser to President George W. Bush. She says it’s more likely to stay around 4 to 5%. Why? Malmgren contends that it’s because the main problem facing economies today is tied to supply and demand, and that means traditional inflation-fighting tools won’t really work. Malmgren joins this week’s episode of Merryn Talks Money to talk inflation targets, geopolitics and Britain's future in space. 

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The industry of providing people with investment advice has been around for a long time. Just how long is the subject of this week’s Merryn Talks Money. Host Merryn Somerset Webb speaks with Peter Knight and Helen Paul, two of the five authors of Invested: How Three Centuries of Stock Market Advice Reshaped Our Money, Markets and Minds.

The new work is a review of centuries of pamphlets and books offering investment advice, and the authors didn’t come away very impressed. Too much of it, they write, offers false hope to an audience desperate to change themselves and their lives without putting in the work.

Want to get rich quick? Knight says don’t bother with the actual investing—just write a best-selling book telling others how to do it. The authors say much of the advice doled out by generations of writers is remarkably similar: look for value, don’t pay too much in commissions, don’t over-trade, and don’t fall for fanciful stories.

Common sense, in other words.

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The UK housing market is not in a good place. Mortgage rates are up, buyers are disappearing and so are sellers. The former don’t want to dump money in a falling market, and they can’t afford mortgages at current prices anyway. The latter don’t want to accept that prices are falling in the first place.

The result? A standoff. And that means the number of transactions are dropping. And while prices aren’t sinking very fast right now, what happens when sellers can’t hold out any longer? If the past is any guide, prices will fall very fast indeed—just like they did in the early 1990s.

How far and how fast? In this week’s episode of the podcast Merryn Talks Money, Senior Editor Neil Callanan and Senior Reporter John Stepek join Merryn Somerset Webb to discuss the scope of the potential implosion. There are an awful lot of vested interests out there insisting that prices won’t fall more than 10%, but without government intervention, they warn prices may drop as much as 40%. 

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For a fund manager with a belief in value, 2021 was as discombobulating a year as they come, says Ben Inker, co-head of GMO’s asset allocation team. Valuations went to insane levels across all markets, and there was nothing you could buy or hold that was cheap enough to offer real long-term returns. But the good news according to Inker is that an awful lot of froth came out of the market last year. Prices went down and inflation went up. Add those together and a lot of markets were down 25% plus in real terms, he says.

Inker joins Merryn Somerset Webb on this week’s Merryn Talks Money  to explain that, for the first time in several years, it’s possible to find assets with “compelling valuations.” There could be more nastiness to come in the most expensive markets, he warns, but the opportunity set going into 2023 is far better than it was a year ago. 

Plus, John Stepek and Merryn discuss was she calls one of the best books she's ever read. 

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Inflation isn’t going away. Why? Because governments can’t let it. So says market historian Russell Napier, who on this episode of Merryn Talks Money tells host Merryn Somerset Webb that, with the global debt-to-GDP ratio at an historic high, using inflation to eat away at the real value of debt is the only escape route. What that means, Napier says, is that for the first time in a long time politics will matter most to markets.

Napier also shares his ideas on how investors can navigate this new environment. He says market indices may fall, but mentions some equities that he says will still make investors real money. Which ones? Tune in to find out. 

And Money Distilled's finest John Stepek joins to talk about why dividends are due a comeback. Check out his daily newsletter here:
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James Ferguson, founder of MacroStrategy Partners, isn’t worried about inflation this year. Instead, he sees the beginnings of deflation. On this week’s Merryn Talks Money, he tells host Merryn Somerset Webb that it’s purely a matter of remembering what the monetarists said: Print money and (with a long and variable lag) you will get inflation; Yank money out of the economy (as the US Federal Reserve is doing) and you will get the opposite. According to Ferguson, there will be deflation by April. 

Plus, John Stepek joins Merryn for a passionate chat about pensions. Yes, it can be done. An extended version of that chat can be heard here: 
https://twitter.com/i/spaces/1PlJQpeNWZqGE?s=20

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Pictet Chief Strategist Luca Paolini says that while there’s a lot to be negative about these days, things aren’t as bad as they seem—even in the UK. He joins Merryn Somerset Webb on this week’s Merryn Talks Money to explain why things are looking up there and elsewhere. There’s also a chance there could be more happy surprises in 2023. According to Paolini, a ceasefire in Russia’s war on Ukraine would be a massive positive economically—one that could see commodity prices and interest rates fall, as well as a European boom. And when it comes to other investments, Paolini says avoid crypto but move some money into bonds. As for stocks, he advises think emerging markets—and don’t forget gold.

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Not many investment trusts made a positive return last year. The Ruffer Investment Company did -- partly by using strategies not open to the retail investor but also using ones that are. In this week’s Merryn Talks Money, the firm’s Investment Director Alexander Chartres talks host Merryn Somerset Webb through what worked for Ruffer in 2022 and what might work in 2023.

Chartres’s key point is the world has changed. He says the global economy is in the process of being “fully rewired,” which means investors must reconsider the fundamentals behind all of their investments. He also says China is changing; there are hot and cold wars on the go all over the world: big BIG government is back; and there is financial repression ahead — so maybe buy some gold.

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Smaller UK companies were among the worst performing assets in the world last year. That made 2022 a tough time for small cap fund managers. But small caps very rarely see two down years in a row, says Anna Macdonald, fund manager at Amati. She joins host Merryn Somerset Webb on this week’s Merryn Talks Money. Macdonald shares her suggestions for the stocks to buy in this kind of environment—think trains, hospital software and specialty lenders.

Plus, senior reporter John Stepek joins to discuss Rishi Sunak's five pledges for British voters to hold him to. 

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Harry Nimmo, one of the most successful investors in smaller UK companies over the past three decades, is retiring from asset manager Abrdn at the end of this month. But that didn’t stop him from predicting a recovery for the sector within six months. In this week’s episode of Merryn Talks Money, Nimmo reflects on his life in investing and how it has informed his outlook for the future. 

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Tom Slater, co-manager of the UK’s most popular investment trust, Scottish Mortgage, joins this week's episode of Merryn Talks Money. Shares in the trust are down 40% year-to-date. What went wrong? Maybe nothing, says Slater. If you want to get real growth, you need to be prepared to pay an “unreasonable price” to get it, and then you need to be prepared for a lot of volatility before any fortunes are made. Plus, senior reporter John Stepek is back -- this time to talk about the British property market. 

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Holding gold? Better load up since it may jump to $3,000 soon. Work in private equity? Maybe get out now: there could be a new tax regime on the way. As for 2% inflation? Not in this "war economy."

These are among Saxo Bank’s self-described "outrageous" predictions for the year ahead, which the Danish bank says will see policymakers shift fully into defensive mode. Chief Investment Officer Steen Jakobsen joins Merryn Somerset Webb to discuss projections he says are far less outlandish than the moniker suggests. Plus, senior reporter and Money Distilled author John Stepek is back to share his own prediction for 2023 and rant about crypto.  

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Merryn Somerset Webb and Bloomberg Wealth senior reporter and author of the daily Money Distilled newsletter John Stepek are reunited to give listeners a taste of what is to come on Merryn Talks Money. They talk investment tools for inflationary times, strategies for managing savings and share their outlooks for the global economy. New episodes start every Friday starting December 9th. From Bloomberg Podcasts.

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