29 // Thinking in probabilities with Taimur Abdaal

Probabilistic modeling is useful for answering all kinds of questions, from assessing financial risk to making engineering time estimates. Yet spreadsheets are poor at this job, which is why Taimur and his colleagues are building Casual. Taimur talks with Mark and Adam about ranges as an intuitive way to estimate; the usefulness of Monte Carlo simulations; and the role of math in dating cave paintings.

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Show notes

• Taimur Abdaal
• Casual
• Not Overthinking
• Airtable
• Drake‘s equation
• line of best fit
• “not even wrong”
• Flatland
• Monte Carlo simulation
• R
• closed-form solution
• RoboCup
• Slack (management book)
• queueing theory
• The Principles of Product Development Flow
• tail risk
• expected value
• gambler’s fallacy
• distribution shapes e.g. bell curve
• fan chart
• Samo Burja of Bismark Analysis
• meta-analysis
• preregistered studies
• confidence interval
• false positive, false negative
• onboarding episode
• A/A testing
• carcinization
• combinatorics
• two-tailed test