13. On the disruptor in the White House (and his chances) – Allan Lichtman

Allan Lichtman, a professor of history at American University in Washington DC, has correctly predicted the winner of nine presidential elections in a row. He has a system with 13 ”keys” that seems almost foolproof (see below). Now he reveals his prediction for November 3, and you will hear it in this episode.

Lichtman is a Democrat, but he makes sure to shove his own opinions aside when he makes his predictions. The fact that he has picked five Republicans and four Democrats on beforehand gives him credibility enough. But his thoughts on how the incumbent is doing he doesn’t keep to himself:

”Trump has exposed lots of loopholes in our system. He has also shown how easy it is to deny information to the American people.”

”He is a coward. He can’t even fire people eye to eye. He hasn’t personally got the fortitude to actually, physically, fight a battle to stay in the White House.”

”Trump has virtually destroyed everything the Republican party ever stood for.”

Oh, and Allan is also a former steeplechase champion. And a 16-time quiz show winner.

Here are the 13 keys to the White House. If six or more of these statements are found to be false by this time, the incumbent party loses:

1) midterm gains 2) no primary contest 3) incumbent seeking re-election 4) no third party 5) strong short-term economy 6) strong long-term economy 7) major policy change 8) no social unrest 9) no scandal 10) no foreign/military failure 11) major foreign/military success 12) charismatic incumbent 13) uncharismatic challenger

Lichtman concludes that seven are now false – 1, 5, 6, 8, 9, 11 and 12