52 avsnitt • Längd: 70 min • Veckovis: Söndag
Jack Farley interviews the very best financial minds about macro, markets, and monetary matters. Follow Jack on Twitter @JackFarley96.
The podcast Monetary Matters with Jack Farley is created by Jack Farley. The podcast and the artwork on this page are embedded on this page using the public podcast feed (RSS).
Almost everyone who works in finance dreams of one day showcasing their trading or investing prowess by starting their own hedge fund, but being a good trader is only one line item in a long list of skills required to be a successful hedge fund manager. Benn Eifert, Managing Partner of QVR Advisors, who himself has built his firm into one that manages $2 billion in assets, discusses the important interpersonal skills, operational considerations, and marketing duties that also fall squarely on the shoulders of the founding portfolio manager. Eifert also touches on why pod shops have been so dominant in attracting both assets and talent, his outlook for single managers and the hedge fund industry, and the growth of listed fund products using options and other derivatives.
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There are always many narratives about what drives markets higher or lower but increasingly investors are turning to quantitative measures like style factors to decouple the signal from the noise and pinpoint what is actually behind major market moves. In this interview, Chris Carrano VP of Strategic Research at Venn by Two Sigma breaks down the orthogonal market factors that drove asset prices in 2024 and what is driving them so far in 2025. He also examines key moments like the post Trump rally in November, December’s equity market wobble post FOMC, and the recent reaction to cooling CPI data. Filmed on January 17, 2025.
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This Monetary Matters episode is brought to you by VanEck.
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Investing involves substantial risk and high volatility, including possible loss of principal. Visit vaneck.com or call 800.826.2333 to read and consider the prospectus, containing the investment objective, risks, and fees of the fund. Carefully read before investing.
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Luke Gromen, Founder & President, Forest for the Trees (FFTT), joins Monetary Matters to share his thoughts on the rapidly selling off Treasury market and strong U.S. Dollar. Recorded on January 13, 2025.
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If you weren’t in large and often expensive technology stocks you likely struggled as a hedge fund manager in 2024. For small/mid-cap value investors like Kyle Mowery, Portfolio Manager and Founder of Grizzly Rock Capital, who’ve sold their investors a mandate that makes it nearly impossible to go buy the NVIDIAs of the world you can only fall back on communication and the clear expectations you’ve set with your investors. The problems plaguing small cap value managers are not new though, and if you are still practicing what Mowery calls “the old ways,” 2024 was likely not the first tough year you’ve had to explain. Here, Mowery explains how he’s adjusted his strategy over 13 years of existence to adapt to changing market structure, why he thinks of you have skills joining a pod is better than starting your own fund, and things he would do differently if he was setting up Grizzly Rock in 2025.
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Find more on Grizzly Rock Capital here: https://www.grizzlyrockcapital.com/
Steve Hou, Researcher at Bloomberg Indices, joins Monetary Matters to share his work on Treasury Issuance patterns and equity index construction. Hou explains that “the supply effect” (i.e. the degree to which issuance of long-term bonds rises bond yields is related to stock/bond correlation). He shares several findings from his work on indices related to pricing power, research and development (R&D), and other factors, and at the end he offers his macro views on bond yields and the increasingly concentrated stock market. Recorded on January 7, 2025.
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Chapter 1 of Steve’s dissertation (“When is the supply effect large in the government bond market?”): https://finance.unibocconi.eu/sites/default/files/files/media/attachments/SteveHou_JMP20180115111812.pdf
Steve’s work on the innovation factor (R&D): https://t.co/VSSpiUExWL
Steve’s work on pricing power: https://www.bloomberg.com/professional/insights/financial-services/cracking-the-code-of-pricing-power/
Work on Analyst ratings upgrades: https://www.bloomberg.com/professional/insights/trading/analyst-ratings-improvers-a-bet-on-turnaround-companies/
Jack Farley and Max Wiethe of the Monetary Matters network break down the sell-off in stocks after a strong December jobs report and hot inflation expectations reading surprises markets. Recorded afternoon of January 10.
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Philadelphia Fed work on early : https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/frbp/assets/economy/articles/economic-insights/2022/q3-q4/eiq3q422_rs-measuring-state-employment.pdf
Bloomberg Opinion piece on Equity Risk Premia:
Mel Mattison, investor, monetary theorist, and former fintech executive, joins Monetary Matters to share how he’s thinking about the next few years for the financial system. Stunned that Mel’s “6,000 by year-end 2024” prediction actually happened, Jack asks Mel why he now expects a violent correction in early 2025 while at the same time extending his S&P 500 forecast to the stunningly high 15,000 level by the end of 2028. They also discuss Bretton Woods 2.0, incoming Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, potential revaluation of gold, and several advanced monetary topics. Recorded December 30, 2024.
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Mel Mattison’s website https://www.melmattison.com/
Mel Mattison’s book “Quoz”: https://www.melmattison.com/quoz
When was the last time you heard about an exciting new mutual fund launch? It’s probably been a while. Despite ETFs, hedge funds, and burgeoning asset classes like private credit taking all the headlines, mutual funds still control over $20 trillion in AUM. So, how does one raise assets in the 2020s with a product many associate with a time gone by? Eric Crittenden, CIO and Founder of Stand Point Asset Management, joins OPM to share how his mutual fund has done just that and reached over $1 billion in AUM in less than 5 years.
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Jason Cave, Senior Consultant at Potomak Global Partners, has over 30 years in bank and financial regulatory experience having worked at both the FDIC and FHFA. In this interview, Cave explains why he’s expecting a much better environment for banks of all sizes in the new regulatory regime under Trump. He discusses why he thinks the FDIC will finally open up bank M&A, the Basel III Endgame will be at least paused, and what he thinks of the future of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
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Citrini just raised the price of Citrini Research by 25%. Monetary Matters listeners can get access to the LOWER 2024 pricing with this link (offer expires February 15):
https://www.citriniresearch.com/subscribe?coupon=d11a5439
The cross-asset thematic investor known only as Citrini returns to Monetary Matters. James reflects on his trades of 2024 in his “Citrindex” which was up 65% in 202 (January 1, 2024 to December 23, 2024). Citrini shares excerpts from his “25 trades for 2025” piece at Citrini Research, covering everything from homebuilders, to drones, to Ukraine normalization trades and power capacitors. Recorded Christmas Eve December 24, 2024.
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With the end of year approaching and SOFR/IOR spreads widening, Darrell Duffie, renowned and prolific monetary scholar, joins Monetary Matters to share his views on why liquidity strains often appear at quarter- and year-end. Duffie explains his work on the September 2019 repo blowout and shares his findings that timing of bank payments is a better predictor of SOFR/IOR stress than the SOFR/IOR spread itself. Duffie also shares his views on debt-to-GDP levels, the theory that the Treasury has engaged in “stealth QE,” and the impact of SOFR transition on bank funding costs. Recorded on December 27, 2024.
Duffie Piece On Reserves Discussed For Most Of Interview (“Reserves Were Not So Ample After All”): https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr974
Duffie Piece on SOFR vs. LIBOR impact on bank debt-overhang cost (discussed at end, “Bank Funding Risk, Reference Rates, and Credit Supply”): https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr1042
Darrell Duffie’s website https://www.darrellduffie.com/
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Having raised over $450m in less than 6 months, Warren Pies, Founder of 3Fourteen Research and Portfolio Manager of $FCTE, has had one of the most successful independent ETF launches of all time. Despite the seemingly overnight success of his fund management business, the real story is about the steady growth of his research business that feeds into everything they do. He explains how his research business has become a pipeline of investor interest in his ETF business and how research relationships flip the traditional client interaction on its head. He also discusses why he chose to focus on setting good expectations with reasonable clients rather than playing the flashy retail newsletter game.
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Today’s episode is brought to you by the Teucrium Wheat Fund. War, weather, inflation—even monetary policy—drive wheat prices. See disclaimers below. Explore the opportunities at: https://bit.ly/Teucrium
Michael Howell of Crossborder Capital joins Jack on Monetary Matters to share his outlook on global liquidity from three sources: central banks, cross border flows, and the private sector. Howell expects the liquidity cycle to peak in late 2025 / early 2026 and says "enjoy the party but dance near the door." Recorded on December 19, 2024.
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CrossBorder’s Website: https://www.crossbordercapital.com/
“Capital Wars” Substack: https://capitalwars.substack.com/
“Capital Wars” the book: https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Wars-Rise-Global-Liquidity/dp/3030392872
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Disclaimers for Teucrium sponsorship:
This material must be preceded or accompanied by a prospectus. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing. To obtain a current prospectus visit www.teucrium.com. The Teucrium Wheat Fund is a commodity pool regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and is not a mutual fund registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940 and is not subject to regulation under such Act. Commodities and futures generally are volatile and are not suitable for all investors.
Futures investing is highly speculative and involves a high degree of risk. An investor may lose all or substantially all of an investment in the Fund. Investing in commodity interest subject the Fund to the risk of its related industry. Brokerage commissions and exchange-traded fund expenses will reduce returns.
Teucrium Trading, LLC serves as the Sponsor of the Teucrium Wheat Fund. PINE Distributors LLC is the Marketing Agent for the Fund, and is not affiliated with Teucrium Trading, LLC, or any of its affiliates.
Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO & Chief Strategist of QI Research, joins Monetary Matters to share her views on the December Federal Reserve FOMC meeting and her outlook on markets and the U.S. economy in 2025. DiMartino doubles down on her call that the U.S. economy is already in a recession, and explains why she thinks on January 29 2025 will be the day that the true weakness of the job market will be revealed. Recorded on December 19, 2024.
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Jack welcomes Max Wiethe, business partner and host of Other People’s Money podcast, to break down December’s Federal Reserve meeting. Jack shares why he bought puts prior to the Fed’s meeting and his views for the market after its steep sell-off of nearly 3%. Max and Jack debate to what extent the monetary policy is hawkish, the bull case for the dollar, and how many cuts (if any) the Fed will do in 2025. Recorded just after the FOMC meeting on December 18, 2024.
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Noel Smith, founder of Convex Asset Management has spent most of his career outside of the world of managing other people’s money. Instead, he traded his own capital as a proprietary trader. Prop traders are famed for generating staggering rates of return, but because they have no interest in raising money, their secrets and strategies generally remain behind closed doors. However, he has decided to bring these strategies to the hedge fund world at Convex Asset Management and while they don’t scale to produce the same level of returns their lack of availability outside the prop world gives him differentiation in the product marketplace. In this interview, Smith explains why props can make so much more money, how much harder capital raising is than he anticipated, and why he ranks relationships and likability higher than performance when it comes to hedge fund success.
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Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
01:16 What is Prop Trading?
10:51 Moving to the Hedge Fund World
16:36 The Hedge Fund Popularity Contest
23:04 Volatility Trading Strategies
27:27 Extracting Information From The Options Market
32:09 Scaling Prop Strategies
34:44 Alpha Degradation
39:31 Being Good Is Not Enough
48:03 Dealing With Extreme Performance
53:28 Long-term Vision For Convex Asset Management
Vincent Deluard, director of global macro for StoneX, joins Monetary Matters to share why he thinks there is a perfect storm of macro headwinds that in April to May of 2025 may put a halt to the relentless rise in U.S. stocks.
Deluard argues that the lower inflation of 2024 will result in a lower cost-of-living-adjustment (COLA) adjustment for 2025 U.S. government programs such as Social Security. He thinks a strong U.S. dollar could dent corporate profits and that state and local governments plan to actually shrink expenditures in 2025.
Deluard, a Frenchman, shares his detailed view on political chaos in France and its macroeconomic consequences. Recorded on December 11, 2024.
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Today’s episode is brought to you by the Teucrium Wheat Fund. War, weather, inflation—even monetary policy—drive wheat prices. See disclaimers below. Explore the opportunities at: https://bit.ly/Teucrium
Felix Zulauf, renowned macro investor and founder of Zulauf consulting, joins Jack on Monetary Matters to share his current views on stocks, bonds, and commodities. Zulauf expects a >1000 point correction in the S&P 500 in early 2025, and warns that a strengthening Japanese yen could unleash a wave of liquidations from investors involved in the Yen carry trade. Under such a risk-off scenario, Zulauf expects U.S. Treasury yields to decline, however he thinks the secular bear market in bonds will ultimately continue. Zulauf is not ready to call an end to the secular bull market in U.S. stocks. Recorded on December 9, 2024.
Felix Zulauf website: https://www.felixzulauf.com/
Felix Zulauf email: [email protected]
Zulauf Consulting on LinkedIn: zulauf-consulting
Zulauf Consulting YouTube Channel: @zulaufconsulting
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___
Disclaimers for Teucrium sponsorship:
This material must be preceded or accompanied by a prospectus. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing. To obtain a current prospectus visit www.teucrium.com. The Teucrium Wheat Fund is a commodity pool regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and is not a mutual fund registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940 and is not subject to regulation under such Act. Commodities and futures generally are volatile and are not suitable for all investors.
Futures investing is highly speculative and involves a high degree of risk. An investor may lose all or substantially all of an investment in the Fund. Investing in commodity interest subject the Fund to the risk of its related industry. Brokerage commissions and exchange-traded fund expenses will reduce returns.
Teucrium Trading, LLC serves as the Sponsor of the Teucrium Wheat Fund. PINE Distributors LLC is the Marketing Agent for the Fund, and is not affiliated with Teucrium Trading, LLC, or any of its affiliates.
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Music from #InAudio: https://inaudio.org/
Track Name: Cinematic Piano [Cinematic Music] by MokkaMusic / Soul
Jamie Carter, Partner and Managing Director at Variis Partners has spent much of his career focused on the world of long-only emerging-market investment boutiques. In this interview with Max Wiethe, Carter discusses the huge differences between building a long only business and a hedge fund business, why launching fund vehicles out of the UK has become more difficult, the differences in raising capital in the US, UK, and Europe, and why he thinks emerging markets are the last hold outs for fundamental active managers. He also explains why EM investors and allocators are holding their collective breath waiting to see how the Trump administration’s policies will impact global markets.
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Jack Farley welcomes Max Wiethe, his business partner and host of the Other People’s Money podcast, for a conversation about the job market, the stock market, and the recent central banking conference they attended. Recorded on December 6, 2024.
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A stalwart of the “no recession” camp for many years, Juliette Declercq of JDI Research joins Jack to argue why she thinks that recession is now the greater risk than inflation for 2025 and beyond. Declercq argues that U.S. economy has been growing beyond organic levels by relying upon debt growth and immigration. She explains her bullish view on the dollar, the two-year note, and her views on stocks and bonds. Recorded on December 2, 2024.
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Since Aristides Capital’s inception in August 2008, Chris Brown has returned over 1,000% for their investors with a stunning 16-year track record of no losing years. In this interview with Max Wiethe, Brown explains how they’ve been able to sustain these results and grow their business to over $300m in AUM all while operating far from the typical financial centers where hedge funds cluster. They discuss how accumulating a plethora of lower capacity strategies, hiring and working with “well intentioned nerds,” and maintaining rigorous processes for post-hoc analysis and feedback have been some of the keys to their investment success. They also touch on asset gathering from both HNW and institutional investors, attracting talent, and the reality that for small funds being in the top quartile or even decile of performance is a near necessity for reaching critical mass.
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Andy Constan joins Monetary Matters to explain why he thinks financial markets are abnormal. With credit spreads extremely tight, the yield curve flat, and an expensive stock market, Andy estimates that all assets are expensive to cash and that financial markets are required to return to normal in order for inflation to return to normal. Recorded on November 26, 2024.
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Jack is joined by George Goncalves, Head of US Macro Strategy at MUFG Securities Americas Inc, and Joseph Wang, publisher at FedGuy.com and former senior trader for the New York Fed, to probe the challenges the Federal Reserve faces at its December meeting and the new year. Recorded on November 25, 2024.
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Joseph’s website: https://fedguy.com/
Joseph’s book: https://www.amazon.com/Central-Banking-101-Joseph-Wang/dp/0999136747
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Ask anyone and they will tell you it has never been harder to start a hedge fund. That’s why so many of the most successful launches of late have been funds emerging from a prior firm with the backing of the big boss, otherwise known as spinouts. Julian Robertson’s Tiger Cubs are the perhaps most famous spinouts, but it is still an extremely popular trend today. Farid Guindo, CIO and founder of Drill Capital Management is taking advantage of these dynamics to launch his new fund with the backing of his mentor and former boss at Bornite Capital, Dan Dreyfus. In this interview with Max Wiethe, Guindo discusses the ins and outs of fund spinouts, the importance of transparency and relationship building with bosses and mentors, and how his experience working at Tiger Cubs and other spinouts solidified his belief that this was the right path for Drill Capital after deciding it was best to be a separate vehicle outside of the Bornite umbrella.
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Dr. Elham Saeidinezhad, Term Assistant Professor of Economics at Barnard College, Columbia University, and Market Structure Fellow, Jain Family Institute, joins Jack to share her upcoming papers on banks as synthetic hedge funds and interest rate swaps as synthetic funding. Recorded on November 23, 2024.
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Warren Pies of 3Fourteen Research joins Jack to share his views on why the stock market isn’t overvalued and why he is recommending to clients an underweight commodities stance. Pies argues that small-caps and mid-caps aren’t destined to do great if the bull market continues. Recorded on November 19, 2024.
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Dan Rasmussen has built his firm Verdad Capital into a billion-dollar asset manager on the back of one core activity, producing high quality research. Since Verdad’s inception in 2014, they have produced almost 500 pieces of research that they publish on their website weekly and distribute both on Twitter and to their large email list of readers. This research serves two functions. It’s both the backbone of the strategies employed at this highly quantitative firm, and a point of connection with existing and potential investors. In this interview with Max Wiethe, Rasmussen discusses how he’s used research to showcase his authentic self and build an audience that provides enumerable benefits. They also discuss the compliance process for publishing research, how he has built out his team and Verdad’s internship program, and why he takes a more SaaS approach to product market fit.
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Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
03:43 The Value of Research and Verdad’s First Big Thesis
10:27 The SaaS Approach Product Market Fit
20:26 Investing in Human Capital
24:21 The Research and Publishing Process
28:41 Research as Brand Building
33:06 Compliance and Misconceptions About Public Statements
41:35 Authenticity and Investor Archetypes
46:07 Making Mistakes
49:45 Being Early on PE
James Davolos, portfolio manager for Horizon Kinetics, joins Jack to share his investment philosophy for investing in companies with strong pricing power that benefit from inflationary environments. Recorded on November 14, 2024.
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Veteran trader Jason Shapiro joins Jack to share how he perceives positioning across FX, Equities, commodities, and bonds. He thinks the crowded long dollar trade has created a set-up for the Euro to rally, and he estimates that traders are a bit too short of oil and natural gas. Equities is in the “too hard” column so he is neutral, however he sees some short-term risks. Recorded on November 12, 2024.
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Hedge fund strategies like distressed, long short equities, relative value, etc. are well defined and understood by allocators. As a result, funds that fit neatly into these style boxes can easily answer the question, “what type of fund are you?” But what if you don’t fit neatly into one of these boxes? Be too exact and no one will search for your niche strategy. Push the envelope to fit into one of these boxes and suddenly investors feel like they’ve been tricked into a meeting. This is a problem that Louis Camhi, founder and CIO of RLH Capital, has had to deal with since launching his SPAC focused strategy in 2021. In this interview with Max Wiethe, Camhi discusses why educating investors about SPACs and defining his fund for style box focused investors has been harder than finding interesting SPAC trades. They also touch on outsourcing back and middle office, the little things you don’t think about when you are working for a larger fund, and the tradeoffs between SMAs and pooled vehicles.
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Citrini, the thematic cross-asset investor known for his prescient and profitable calls on AI and GLP-1s, joins Monetary Matters to review with Jack his “Trump basket” which since its inception in March 4, 2024 to November 8, 2024 is up 87% (his Trump market neutral basket is up 32% over the same time horizon). Citrini explains why he created the basket and how its performance tracked and often predicted Trump’s odds of winning in the betting markets. Upon Trump’s victory, he tells Jack which parts of the basket he thinks are overheated and which have room to run. Citrini also shares his views on AI, the broad stock and bond markets, and the airline industry. Recorded on November 8, 2024.
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The Federal Reserve continued its course of interest rate cuts in the first FOMC
meeting following the election of Donald Trump and a defiant Chairman Powell strongly
rejected any notion that Trump’s presidency could affect the independence of the
Federal Reserve. Here, Jack Farley and Max Wiethe discuss the Fed’s move in light of
recent data, the stock market’s run both before and after Trump’s election, and their
outlooks for stocks and the economy moving forward. Recorded on November 7th , 2024.
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Harris Kupperman, CIO and Founder of Praetorian Capital joins Max Wiethe to share how he’s grown his firm to over $300 million in AUM, largely by breaking the institutional mold. They discuss Kupperman’s choice to build a strategy with UHNW investors and family offices in mind rather than traditional institutional investors and the benefits of a diversified base of LPs. They also discuss the firm’s blog Kuppy’s Korner, the importance of authenticity in brand building, and his choice to register the fund as a 506(c).
Clarification: At 50:48 Harris mentions that almost half the capital in the fund is from gains. As of September 30th, 2024 44% of the fund's capital is from gains.
Sign up for Kuppy’s Korner at: https://pracap.com
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Email [email protected] to inquire about Henley & Partners, and Jack will connect you with Basil.
Basil Mohr-Elzeki, Managing Director and Head of Americas for Henley & Partners, joins Jack on Monetary Matters to explain why more millionaires than ever are going to relocate countries in 2024. He delves into the causes of this phenomenon, the nuances of citizenship and residency investment, and the role that taxes, geographic diversification and other factors play in driving the migration of the world’s high-net-worth individuals.
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Jeff Snider of Eurodollar University joins Jack to explore whether the inverted yield curve signal has been proven wrong, and just how strong or weak the U.S. economy is. Recorded on October 28, 2024.
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Building a successful hedge fund is hard. It’s even harder when you’re fighting the perpetual upward momentum of the market. Despite this headwind, Carson Block, CIO and Founder of Muddy Waters Capital, has made his firm into a successful fund management business and taken down billion-dollar frauds in the process. In this interview with Max Wiethe, Block explains why starting a fund became necessary to pursue activist short selling in a serious capacity, the pitfalls of capital raising and the different types of investors who are interested in specialized strategies like theirs, and how he is expanding his business with new strategies beyond activist short selling. Recorded on October 21st, 2024.
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David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research & Associates Inc., joins Jack Farley on Monetary Matters to argue why a recession is likely to occur as soon as 2025. Rosenberg points to the low savings rate and argues that fiscal deficits and a stock market price bubble are boosting consumer spending and that this will reverse if the stock market stops going up. Recorded on October 25, 2024.
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Chris Whalen of Whalen Global Advisors & Institutional Risk Analyst joins Jack Farley to explain why bank stocks are partying like it’s 1997 again. Recorded on October 21, 2024.
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Chris Whalen’s latest book, “Seeing Around Corners,” https://www.freedommortgage.com/seeingaroundcorners
Lev Menand & Joshua Younger paper that Chris references: https://scholarship.law.columbia.edu/faculty_scholarship/4093/
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Investing legend Jim Rogers joins Jack Farley on Monetary Matters to share timeless investing lessons. Rogers warns that people who blindly follow financial pundits without doing their own analysis are likely doomed to underperform, and he explains why he is a long-term bull on Chinese shares. Rogers argues that the unprecedented sovereign debt levels in the U.S. will reignite inflation, and explains why he continues to view silver as an effective inflation hedge. Recorded on October 17, 2024.
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Beeland Interests https://www.beelandinterests.com/
Jim Rogers’ website https://www.jimrogers.com/
Jim Rogers’ Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Rogers
Jim Bianco of Bianco Research and Bianco Advisors joins Monetary Matters to share his views on inflation, the labor market, and bonds. Bianco argues that the reason the unemployment rate has gone up is because the large amount of immigration into the U.S. has increased the labor force. Bianco makes the case that inflation is headed higher and bond yields now are probably headed higher. Recorded on October 14, 2024.
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Jared Dillian, author of The Daily Dirtnap and of “Night Moves: And other stories” joins Monetary Matters to discuss his thoughts behind a recent piece he wrote called “The Next Big Short: Hidden Risks Behind Private Equity's $8 Trillion Market.” Jared explains why he has shorted private equity companies and why he thinks private equity has peaked as an asset class and is destined for underperformance over the next decade. Recorded on October 11, 2024.
Jared’s piece, ““The Next Big Short: Hidden Risks Behind Private Equity's $8 Trillion Market”: https://m.jareddillianmoney.com/private-equity-next-big-short
Jared’s Short Private Equity website: https://www.shortprivateequity.com/
Jared’s latest book, “Night Moves: And other stories”: https://www.amazon.com/Night-Moves-stories-Jared-Dillian/dp/B0DFBJS741
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SPECIAL “ASK ME ANYTHING” PROMOTION: Leave a rating and review for Monetary Matters on Apple podcast and ask Jack any question you want. Jack will answer some of the questions in future episodes. You can write the question in the body of the review, or you can send your question to to [email protected] alongside a screenshot of your review.
Brian McCarthy of Macrolens LLC joins Jack Farley to argue that the tremendous Chinese stock market rally of the past three weeks is fueled by misunderstanding of Chinese economic policy. McCarthy argues that the fiscal stimulus from the Chinese government will be 1 - 2 Trillion Yuan, or ~300 Billion USD, which McCarthy estimates is nowhere near close enough to stimulate the flailing Chinese economy. Recorded the afternoon of October 8, 2024.
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Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy joins Monetary Matters to explain why she is bullish on Chinese equities on a multi-year time horizon, and to share why she thinks nothing will stop the American economy because of the large amount of fiscal deficits the U.S government is running. Recorded on September 30, 2024.
Teucrium’s US Agriculture ETFs provide exposure to commodities like corn, wheat, soybeans, and sugar in a convenient size and ETF wrapper, right in your traditional brokerage account. Learn more at https://teucrium.com/
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Despite rising tensions in the Middle East, today’s guest thinks that the price of oil is headed not higher but lower. Paul Sankey of Sankey Research joins Jack Farley on Monetary Matters to share why he thinks the price of oil is headed to as low as $50 as millions of barrels of capacity come online in Guyana, the U.S., and elsewhere, and as Saudi Arabia begins to focus on market share once again. Recorded on October 4, 2024.
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Financial Times article on Saudi desire to take back market share: https://www.ft.com/content/1d186f62-5941-4f9e-aef1-7d93a8a696cd
Harley Bassman, managing partner at Simplify Asset Management, outlines his favorite trades right now and explains why he thinks bonds are fully cooked without an imminent recession. He argues that selling interest rate vol is one of the best ways to play this fully cooked bond market and explains how new issue agency MBS and other callable bonds can be used to take advantage of the richness in bond volatility. Filmed on September 26, 2024.
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Learn more about Simplify https://www.simplify.us
China’s central bank just shocked markets with several impressive sounding stimulus measures, causing the biggest one-week rally in Chinese stocks since 2008. But how effective is this stimulus actually going to be to the Chinese economy? Leland Miller, co-founder & CEO of China Beige Book, joins Monetary Matters to weigh on this very important issue. Leland says he thinks the rally in Chinese stocks could continue for up to two months but that the effect on the Chinese economy will be to stabilize rather than to stimulate. Recorded on September 27, 2024.
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Neil Dutta, Head of Economic Research at Renaissance Macro Research, joins Monetary Matters to update his prior call that the US economy would not enter a recession. He explains why a soft landing is still his base case and why he thinks the Fed is properly positioned to engineer that outcome even if soft economic data forces them to cut rates more aggressively. Recorded on September 21, 2024.
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Kris Sidial, co-CIO of Ambrus Group, joins Monetary Matters to break down the conditions in volatility markets that exacerbated the sharp sell-off in early August, and explain why he thinks the risks embedded in the "short vol" trade have only gotten worse. Recorded on September 20, 2024.
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Teucrium’s US Agriculture ETFs provide exposure to commodities like corn, wheat, soybeans, and sugar in a convenient size and ETF wrapper, right in your traditional brokerage account. Learn more at https://teucrium.com/
Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist of QI Research, joins Monetary Matters to share her views on the the Federal Reserve’s historic 50 basis point cut. Recorded shortly after Jay Powell’s press conference on September 18, 2024.
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Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Fed and publisher of FedGuy.com, joins Jack Farley as the first guest of Monetary Matters. Joseph shares his view on the Federal Reserve's historic double interest rate cut, and explains why he thinks the interest rate cuts could be quite bearish for the stock market. Filmed on September 18, just after Fed Chair Powell's press conference.
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Joseph's latest piece, "When Big Cuts Are Bad": https://fedguy.com/when-big-cuts-are-bad/
Jack Farley interviews the very best financial minds about macro, markets, and monetary matters. First episode going out with Joseph Wang on September 18, shortly after the Federal Reserve begins its cutting rate cycle.
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En liten tjänst av I'm With Friends. Finns även på engelska.