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Tim Harford and the More or Less team try to make sense of the statistics which surround us. From BBC Radio 4
The podcast More or Less: Behind the Stats is created by BBC Radio 4. The podcast and the artwork on this page are embedded on this page using the public podcast feed (RSS).
Some Labour politicians have been calling for a wealth tax, claiming a 2% tax could raise £24bn. Where are the numbers from and do they add up?
A listener asked why housing in the UK is the oldest in Europe. We explain what’s going on.
The Office for National Statistics has changed how it measures the value of pensions and knocked £2 trillion off its estimates of wealth. Not everyone thinks it was a good change. We find out why.
And Lent is here, but how long is the Christian fasting period? We look at the history of a very flexible 40 days.
Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news, and the world around us.
Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Lizzy McNeill Producers: Nathan Gower and Charlotte McDonald Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Gemma Ashman Sound mix: Gareth Jones Editor: Richard Vadon
On 27 December 2024, astronomers spotted an asteroid that was potentially heading towards earth. Named 2024 YR4, it was estimated to be between 40m and 90m across, with the potential to cause massive damage if it hit a populated area of the planet.
The chances of that happening, however, seemed to fluctuate significantly - ranging from 1% to a peak of 3%, before falling to virtually zero.
Tim Harford investigates what was going on, with the help of Davide Farnocchia, a navigation engineer at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Mix: Hal Haines Editor: Richard Vadon
More working age people are claiming disability benefits. What's driving the trend?
Is it true that the UK imprisons more people for their social media posts than Russia does?
One of the country’s most important data sources has been falling apart. We find out why.
Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.
Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Lizzy McNeill Producer: Nathan Gower Series producers: Charlotte McDonald and Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon
In March 2020, the covid pandemic forced the UK into lockdown. Schools closed, universities went online and the economy shut down.
It slowly became clear that young people were not falling victim to the virus in significant numbers - they made up a fraction of a percent of the overall death toll.
But their lives were radically changed - most spending these formative ages stuck at home as the pandemic raged. Politicians and academics worried about the long term impact this would have on their chances in life.
Five years on, Tim Harford delves into the data to try to work out what we can say with confidence about the effect of the lockdown on the children and young adults who lived through it.
On questions of education levels, job prospects and mental health, what story does the best evidence show us?
Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Nigel Appleton Editor: Richard Vadon
You may have seen a map circulated on social media that claims to show the average IQ of different nations.
If you look closely these numbers vary dramatically, with incredibly low scores in developing countries, including many in Africa.
Unsurprisingly the map is often used as a way to bolster arguments about racial or national superiority.
However, when you look at the data behind the claims the whole thing falls apart. We dive into the methods behind the map and ask whether it’s even possible to accurately put a number on intelligence. Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Studio Manager: James Beard Production Co-Ordinator: Brenda Brown
It’s been 12 weeks since President Trump announced the formation of DOGE, the so-called department of Government efficiency. We fact-check various claims connected with the drive to route out inefficiency. Listeners asked us to investigate the claim that 1 in 12 Londoners is an illegal immigrant. We look into the claim that imported New Zealand apples have a smaller carbon footprint than British grown apples. Plus - did VAT on private schools really boost the rate of inflation, or was that just a media concoction?
Presenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Charlotte McDonald Producers: Lizzy McNeill, Nathan Gower and Josh McMinn Sound Mix: Rod Farquhar Editor: Richard Vadon Production Co-Ordinator: Brenda Brown
As part of the fast-moving argument over US military support to Ukraine, the US demanded $500bn worth of access to what was variously reported as Ukraine’s rare earths or rare metals or rare minerals. But is there that amount of minerals in the ground?
Presenter: Tim Harford Producer and Editor: Richard Vadon Studio Manager: James Beard Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
Has the US really sent Ukraine $350 billion for its war effort? Is a $500billion cut of Ukraine’s rare earth minerals a good deal? How will the UK fund the governments ambitions to raise defence spending to 3%? But most important of all - how many muscles are in an elephant’s trunk?
Presenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Charlotte McDonald Reporter: Lizzy McNeill Producers: Nathan Gower and Josh McMinn Sound Mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon Production Co-Ordinator: Brenda Brown
As negotiations to end the Ukraine war rumble on, Donald Trump seems equally interested in talking about the past, repeatedly claiming that the US has given much more aid to Ukraine than Europe has, and that Europe’s aid took the form of a loan that they’ll be getting back.
Emmanuel Macron has publicly contradicted the US President - so who’s correct?
Nathan Gower speaks to Taro Nishikawa, project lead at the Kiel Institute’s Ukraine Support Tracker to get the true picture.
Presenter / Producer: Nathan Gower Editor: Richard Vadon Sound Engineer: James Beard
Last week Elon Musk revealed that he had been through the Social Security Agencies database and found millions of people aged over 100.
The vast majority of these people are dead, but their accounts and social security numbers remain live.
Elon claimed that he had uncovered ‘the biggest fraud ever’ prompting some news outlets to speculate that billions of dollars might be being paid to these dead people every month.
But is it true? We look at whether this is new information and what the data actually tells us.
Produced and presented by: Lizzy McNeill Series producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Mix: James Beard
On the 25th January, the US Press Secretary announced that in their bid to stop ‘fraud’ and waste DOGE had cancelled $50 million worth of condoms being sent to Gaza by the United States Agency for International Development (aka USAID).
President Trump later repeated this claim, adding on that Hamas were using said condoms to make bombs to fire at Israel.
On the 7th of February the USAID website was taken down.
We fact check this claim and find out how much of the US budget was spent on USAID programmes.
Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Producer: Lizzy McNeill Research: Josh McMinn Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Mix: David Crackles Editor: Richard Vadon
Babies born in the US to Black Hispanic or African American mothers are more likely to die than any other ethnic group in America.
That is a fact.
But the reason why this happens is unclear. In 2020 a study came out that claimed that black babies attended by white doctors after birth were twice as likely to die than white babies attended by white doctors.
People jumped to the conclusion that the race of the doctor was leading to the different outcomes. But when you delve into the numbers, a very different picture starts to emerge.
Presenter: Lizzy McNeill Series producer: Tom Colls Production coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Steve Greenwood Editor: Richard Vadon
Google claim their latest quantum computer chip is able to process something in five minutes it would take a normal computer 10 septillion years to figure out.
As this is a massive amount longer than the entire history of the known universe, that seems to suggest the chip is extremely powerful.
But when you understand what’s going on, the claim doesn’t seem quite so impressive. Dr Peter Leek, a quantum computer scientist from Oxford University, explains the key context.
Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Andrew Garratt Editor: Richard Vadon
Just before being inaugurated as US president for the second time, Donald Trump launched something called a “meme-coin”. This is a bespoke cryptocurrency token featuring a picture of Donald Trump. A billion of them may eventually be created.
Newspaper headlines claimed that the Trump meme-coin had made the president billions of dollars wealthier. But it is far from clear that this is the case. Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Mike Etherden Editor: Richard Vadon
What has the colour of your hair got to do with your capacity to withstand pain?
We investigate the claim, which regularly circulates on social media, that natural redheads are 25% tougher than their brunette peers.
Pain expert Jeff Mogil explains how it all comes down to something called MC1R.
Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Production Co-ordinator: Katie Morrison
The claim that 79% of asylum seekers in Sweden go on holiday in their home country has been repeated regularly on social media. It’s used to argue that recent refugees are being disingenuous about the danger they face in the country they have fled from. But when you look at the survey the claim is based on, you see the stat in a very different way. We speak to Hjalmar Strid, who ran the survey for polling company Novus, and Tino Sanandaji from Bulletin, the online news site which published it.
Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound Mix: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon
We asked and you responded, this edition of ‘numbers of the year’ are from you. our loyal listeners. We scoured the inboxes to find three fascinating numbers that say something about the world we live in now and put them to our experts. Tune if you want to hear about rising global temperatures, what Taylor Swift has in common with 65 years olds and facts about fax (machines).
Contributors: Amanda Maycock, University of Leeds Jennifer Dowd, University of Oxford
Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Reporter: Lizzy McNeill Producer: Vicky Baker and Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Sound Engineer: Rod Farquhar.
It’s that time of year again, the time when we ask some of our favourite statistically-inclined people for their numbers of the year. We present them to you - from falling birth rates in India to children saved by vaccines.
Contributors: RukminiS, Data for India Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter, Cambridge University, Hannah Ritchie, Our World in Data.
Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Producers: Lizzy McNeill and Vicky Baker Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Sound Engineer: Donald McDonald and Rod Farquhar
“Say what you like about Mussolini but he did make the trains run on time.” This phrase is the political equivalent of “every cloud has a silver lining” – but does it have any factual basis? Mussolini’s dictatorship in Italy was full of atrocities, brutal suppression and propaganda. Did it also create a more efficient railway network? We speak to Professor Ruth Ben-Ghiat about the truth of the claim and why the Mussolini regime wanted us to believe it. Presenter: Lizzy McNeill Producer: Lizzy McNeill Researcher: Esme Winterbotham Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Sound Master: James Beard Production Co-ordinator: Katie Morrison.
Image: Benito Mussolini in his train studying maps. (Photo by ullstein picture/ullstein picture via Getty Images)
Are most Americans barely holding their head above water when it comes to personal finances? That’s what various US politicians and news outlets keep suggesting. They can’t stop using a statistic about people living “paycheck to paycheck”. But what does this really mean?
We go behind the headlines to unpick the numbers. Contributor: Ben Krauss, journalist Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Producer: Vicky Baker and Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound Engineer: Andrew Mills Editor: Richard Vadon
When World War Two came to Greece, a period of terrible human suffering followed. There was a brutal battle with Italian and then Nazi forces, followed by an occupation in which thousands were executed and a terrible famine swept the nation.
There’s an often repeated number that appears to capture the brutality of this time – that 10% of the Greek population died during the war.
We investigate where this statistic comes from and whether it is true.
Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon
President Elect Donald Trump has created a new government advisory group – the Department of Government Efficiency or ‘DOGE’ - to help cut the US budget.
The world richest man, Elon Musk, will co-head the department and has pledged to cut ‘at least $2 trillion’ to ‘balance the budget’. But is this possible? We talk to Professor Linda Bilmes about what DOGE could or couldn’t do and how she balanced the budget in the 1990’s.
Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound Mix: Andrew Mills Editor: Richard Vadon
Governments around the world have promised to fight climate change. But are they also pumping an absolutely massive amount of money into subsidies for fossil fuels? In 2022, an IMF working paper estimated that global subsidies for fossil fuels totalled $7 trillion. But when you dig into that research, you find that this number might not mean what you think it does. We explain how they reached that conclusion, with the help of Angela Picciariello from the International Institute for Sustainable Development, and Nate Vernon, one of the co-authors of the IMF paper.
Just hours after Donald Trump claimed victory in the US presidential election, rumours started swirling that something was afoot. A graph went viral on social media that appeared to show there were 20 million more votes cast in 2020 than in the 2024 election. Where had these supposedly “missing” votes gone? Conspiracy theorists on both sides of the political spectrum began shouting claims of fraud. The answer, it turns out, is rather more straightforward. Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound Mix: Hal Haines Editor: Richard Vadon
A huge quantity of clothing is produced every year around the world. But is so much made that there are already enough tops, trousers, skirts and all the rest to clothe humanity for decades into the future?
That’s a claim that has been percolating around the internet recently, that there are already enough clothes for the next six generations.
Tim Harford and Beth Ashmead Latham explore the source of this claim and, with help from Sabina Lawreniuk from Nottingham University, find that the evidence behind it is far from persuasive.
Presenter: Tim Harford and Bethan Ashmead Latham Producer: Bethan Ashmead Latham Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound Mix: Annie Gardiner Editor: Richard Vadon
The great theories of economics seem to have great explanatory power, but the actual world is often far too complicated and messy to fully test them out.
Professor Ignacio Palacios-Huerta, an economist at the London School of Economics has an answer – sport. In the contained setting of competitive sport, he says, the rules are clear and you know who is doing what. This means, with some analysis, you can see vibrant illustrations of well-known economic theories playing out before your eyes.
Ignacio talks to Tim Harford about some of his favourite economic theories, demonstrated in action in sporting competition.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Natasha Fernandes Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: John Scott Editor: Richard Vadon
Could the cut in winter fuel payments cost thousands of lives? Is it really true that criminals sentenced to three years will be out of prison in two months? Are older drivers more dangerous than young ones? Do Southeastern Railway shift 50 million leaves from their lines?
Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.
Presenter: Tim Harford Reporters: Bethan Ashmead Latham and Nathan Gower Producer: Natasha Fernandes Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon
On the campaign trail for the US presidency, former president Donald Trump has been saying that the US is becoming a more dangerous than Venezuela.
He also claims that the crime data for the US that the FBI collects is missing the most violent cities.
Is he right? Tim Harford investigates, with the help of Bastian Herre from Our World in Data and Jay Albanese from Virginia Commonwealth University.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Bethan Ashmead Latham Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound Mix: Annie Gardiner Editor: Richard Vadon
Was an MP wrong about the number of people who pay capital gains tax?
Why is 2% the magic number for the rate of inflation?
Donald Trump says US crime figures are fake. Are they?
How do you work out how many buffaloberries a bear eats in a day?
And we fact-check a claim about the prevalence of suicide among GPs. For information and support follow this link: https://www.bbc.co.uk/actionline
Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.
Presenter: Tim Harford Reporters: Nathan Gower and Bethan Ashmead Latham Series Producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Rod Farquhar Editor: Richard Vadon
The question of why some countries are rich and some poor has been described as the most important question in economics.
Perhaps that is why the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics to Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson and James Robinson for their work on the importance of institutions in the economic fortunes of nation states.
Tim Harford explains the economic theory that underpins their award.
Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Reporter: Tim Harford Producer: Bethan Ashmead Latham Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Giles Aspen Editor: Richard Vadon
Can we teach BBC political editor Chris Mason some new maths skills? Do 60 of the UK’s richest people pay 100% tax? Have water bills fallen in real terms since 2010? When it comes to HPV and cervical cancer, is zero a small number?
Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Nathan Gower and Bethan Ashmead Latham Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Sarah Hockley Editor: Richard Vadon
Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter is one of the great communicators of probability and uncertainty.
His new book, The Art of Uncertainty, explains how to approach uncertainty, luck, probability and ignorance.
Tim Harford talks to Sir David about double yoked eggs, the Bay of Pigs, and his top tips for politicians who want to communicate evidence and uncertainty. Presenter: Tim Harford Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: John Scott Editor: Richard Vadon
Are childhood obesity rates going down? Do 35 million birds die every year in the UK after hitting windows? How much money could the Chancellor find by changing the debt rule? And Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter contemplates the probability of his own conception.
Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news, and in life.
Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Charlotte MacDonald Producers: Bethan Ashmead Latham, Natasha Fernandes and Nathan Gower Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon
National Geographic magazine recently wrote that “people in the United States eat more than 672 billion pounds of corn per year, which breaks down to more than 2,000 pounds per person annually”.
Is this really true?
Tim Harford investigates all the things that we don’t eat, that are counted in this number.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Bethan Ashmead Latham Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Giles Aspen Editor: Richard Vadon
Are GPs really working less hours per week? Does Wetherspoons really pay one in every £1000 of tax in the UK? Are more people in the UK economically inactive? How long does it take two rats to produce 17 octillion rats?
Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.
Presenter: Tim Harford Reporters: Natasha Fernandes and Bethan Ashmead-Latham Producer: Nathan Gower Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Sarah Hockley Editor: Richard Vadon
Why do some puzzles make us immediately leap to the wrong conclusion?
That’s the subject of Alex Bellos’ new book Think Twice, which has page after page of questions designed to deceive.
Alex sets Tim Harford some of his favourite puzzles.
Presenter: Tim Harford Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison and Janet Staples Sound mix: Donald MacDonald Editor: Richard Vadon
The government is encouraging pensioners to claim pension credit in order to remain eligible for winter fuel payments. Will people sign up - and might that end up costing the exchequer more than it saves?
The Office for National Statistics has downgraded the status of a new statistic aiming to measure how many people are transgender. What went wrong?
Cancer appears to be on the rise in people under 50. But are more people dying?
And try your hand at a puzzle you’re likely to get wrong.
Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Natasha Fernandes and Bethan Ashmead-Latham Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Sarah Hockley Editor: Richard Vadon
We don’t usually do god on More or Less, but one listener got in touch to ask us to investigate a stat used by an Anglican priest on a BBC radio programme.
Speaking on the “Thought for the Day” slot, Reverend Lucy Winkett said that around 85% of the world's population practice a religion.
Is this true? We speak to Conrad Hackett, from the Pew Research Center, and the person whose research is the source for the claim.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Natasha Fernandes Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Nigel Appleton Editor: Richard Vadon
Can we be sure that thousands of millionaires are leaving the UK? How much do asylum seekers cost the state? Who will win a geeky bet on private school pupil numbers? What does a string quartet teach us about the woes of the National Health Service?
Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Caroline Bayley, Natasha Fernandes and Bethan Ashmead-Latham Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Sarah Hockley Editor: Richard Vadon
Big stakes poker player and elections analyst Nate Silver is no stranger to a calculated risk.
In his new book, On The Edge, he makes the case that people willing to take massive calculated risks are winning in the modern economy.
Tim Harford talks to Nate about the mindset that’s driving hedge fund managers, crypto true-believers and silicon valley investors.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Beth Ashmead Latham Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Nigel Appleton Editor: Richard Vadon
Do illegal migrants receive more in benefits than pensioners? Was Energy Secretary Ed Miliband right to celebrate a “record breaking” renewable energy auction? Is one divided by zero infinity? Why don’t we spend more on evidence that government spending works? And how long does it actually take to turn around an oil tanker?
Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.
Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Charlotte McDonald Producers: Natasha Fernandes, Bethan Ashmead-Latham and Nathan Gower Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Gareth Jones Editor: Richard Vadon
Donald Trump wants new tariffs on goods coming into the US, describing them as a tax on other countries. The Democrats are no stranger to trade tariffs themselves, with Joe Biden having added them to numerous goods coming into the US from China.
We talk to Erica York from the Tax Foundation about how tariffs work and who ends up paying for them.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Kate Lamble and Beth Ashmead Latham Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Steve Greenwood Editor: Richard Vadon
Do half of children in Wales have special educational needs? Are permanent exclusions at the highest ever level in England? Labour are talking about a £22bn black hole. Is that a new black hole in the finances? Are there more Ghanaian nurses in the UK than in Ghana? Can you divide one by zero?
Tim Harford looks at some of the numbers in the news.
Presenter: Tim Harford Reporters: Kate Lamble and Nathan Gower Producer: Beth Ashmead Latham Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Andy Fell Editor: Richard Vadon
The Cuban government has announced that their population has fallen by 10% in two years – just days after a demographer on the Caribbean island suggested an even bigger fall.
But which is the right number, and why are so many people leaving?
We speak to Dr Emily Morris from University College London and Dr Jorge Duany from the Cuban Research Institute at Florida International University.
Presenter: Kate Lamble Producer: Beth Ashmead Latham Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Sue Maillot Editor: Richard Vadon
The claim we all swallow 5.5 grams of microplastic each week – the same as the weight of a credit card – has been repeated by charities, newspapers and the World Economic Forum.
But when you understand how this number was calculated, and the range of possible answers for the amount of plastic you eat, you might not want to repeat it yourself.
Professor Jamie Woodward from the University of Manchester explains what’s what.
Presenter: Kate Lamble Producer: Beth Ashmead Latham Researcher: Ajai Singh Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Giles Aspen Editor: Richard Vadon
Recent reports claimed the average global mark-up, the difference between the price of production and the price that product is sold for, rose from 7% in 1980 to 59% by 2020.
So is this true? Are some companies choosing to charge us more than ever for their products?
We investigate the accuracy of these claims, and which companies are responsible with the help of Jan Eeckhout a Professor of Economics at Pompeu Fabra University in Barcelona
Presenter: Kate Lamble Producer: Beth Ashmead Latham Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon
Canadian psychologist and culture war commentator Jordan Peterson says planet Earth has got 20% greener in the last 20 years.
But satellite data tells a different story.
We investigate the correct number, with the help of Dr Chi Chen, from Rutgers University in the US.
Presenter: Kate Lamble Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Giles Aspen Editor: Richard Fenton-Smith
Researchers have catalogued 7,164 languages spoken around the world - some are used daily by billions. Half are spoken by less than 8000 people. The death of a language, when it’s no longer spoken as a first language by anyone living is a deeply significant moment in the cultural life of communities.
Multiple sources including the UN and National Geographic magazine have claimed this happens every two weeks. But we have reasons to be suspicious about that statistic. Gary Simons, executive editor of the Ethnologue language catalogue, explains where this idea came from.
Presenter: Kate Lamble Producer: Natasha Fernandes Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Nigel Appleton Editor: Richard Fenton-Smith
The idea that women outnumber men by 14 to 1 as casualties of natural disasters has been repeated in newspapers and online for years - the UN have even used this statistic.
But when you track down the source, the research behind this claim leaves much to be desired.
Presenter: Kate Lamble Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Nigel Appleton Editor: Richard Fenton-Smith
Is climate change making turbulence more dangerous for people taking flights around the world?
That’s what one listener asked, following a terrifying turbulence incident which left one person dead and more than 20 injured on a flight to Singapore.
We speak to turbulence expert Paul Williams, Professor of Atmospheric Science at the University of Reading, to understand what is going on.
Presenter: Kate Lamble Producer: Nathan Gower Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Nigel Appleton Editor: Richard Vadon
How can tennis star Roger Federer have won only 54% of the points he played, but been the best player in the world? Jeff Sackmann, the tennis stats brain behind tennisabstract.com, explains to Tim Harford how probability works in the sport.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Debbie Richford Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Mix: Nigel Appleton Editor: Richard Vadon
You might have found it boring in school maths classes, but Matt Parker thinks we should all learn to love trigonometry.
The ‘Love Triangle’ author talks to Tim Harford about the maths used in GPS, architecture and special effects.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Debbie Richford Series Producer: Tom Colls Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Mix: Nigel Appleton Editor: Richard Vadon
Are Labour right about employment? Are the Conservatives right about cutting NHS managers? Are the Lib Dems right about share buyback? Are Reform UK right about their tax plans?
How do they make the exit poll so accurate?
What are the odds of meeting a very tall man in finance (with a trust fund)?
What does it mean that Roger Federer only won 54% of the points he played?
Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.
Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Kate Lamble Producers: Nathan Gower, Beth Ashmead Latham and Debbie Richford Series producer: Tom Colls Production coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Rod Farquhar Editor: Richard Vadon
he US has been portrayed as in the grip of a maternal mortality crisis. In contrast to most other developed nations, the rate of maternal deaths in the US has been going up since the early 2000s.
But why? With the help of Saloni Dattani, a researcher at Our World in Data, Tim Harford explores how a gradual change in the way the data was gathered lies at the heart of the problem.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Debbie Richford Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Series Producer: Tom Colls Sound Mix: Emma Harth Editor: Richard Vadon
Are Labour right about the Liz Truss effect on mortgages? Are the Conservatives right about pensioners? Are Plaid Cymru right about spending? Are the Lib Dems right about care funding? Is Count Binface right about croissants?
Why are MRP polls coming up with such different numbers?
Do erections require a litre of blood?
Tim Harford investigates the numbers in the news.
Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Kate Lamble Producers: Simon Tulett, Nathan Gower, Beth Ashmead Latham and Debbie Richford Series producer: Tom Colls Production coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Rod Farquhar Editor: Richard Vadon
So-called “pig butchering” scams take billions of dollars from people around the globe. But do the cyber scams run from compounds in Cambodia really take an amount of money equivalent to half that country’s GDP? We investigate how the scale of these criminal operations has been calculated.
Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Tom Colls Production coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Andrew Garratt Editor: Richard Vadon
Will Conservative policies raise mortgages by £4800, as Labour claim? Are primary school kids in England the best readers in the (western) world, as the Conservatives claim? Are there more potholes in the UK than craters on the moon?
Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.
Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Kate Lamble Producers: Nathan Gower, Simon Tullet Beth Ashmead-Latham and Debbie Richford Production coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon
AWilliam Shakespeare might well rank as the most influential writer in the English language. But it seems he also had a knack for numbers.
Rob Eastaway, author of Much Ado about Numbers, tells Tim Harford about the simple maths that brings Shakespeare’s work to life.
Presenter: Tim Harford Readings: Stella Harford and Jordan Dunbar Producer: Beth Ashmead-Latham Series producer: Tom Colls Production coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon
What’s going on with the dodgy bar charts that political parties put on constituency campaign leaflets?
What’s the truth about tax promises?
Are 100,000 oil workers going to lose their jobs in Scotland?
Will class sizes increase in state schools if private schools increase their fees?
Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.
Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Kate Lamble Producers: Nathan Gower, Beth Ashmead-Latham, Debbie Richford Production coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon
The claim that medical error is the third leading cause of death in the US has been zooming around the internet for years.
This would mean that only heart disease and cancer killed more people than the very people trying to treat these diseases.
But there are good reasons to be suspicious about the claim.
Professor Mary Dixon-Woods, director of The Healthcare Improvement Studies Institute, or THIS Institute, at Cambridge University, explains what’s going on.
Presenter: Tim Harford Series producer: Tom Colls Production coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Nigel Appleton Editor: Richard Vadon
Were there any suspicious claims in the election debate between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer?
Do the claims in Reform UK’s policy documents on excess deaths and climate change make sense?
Can the Conservatives and Labour raise £6bn a year by cracking down on tax avoidance and evasion?
And do all the humans on earth weigh more than all of the ants?
Presenter: Tim Harford Reporters: Kate Lamble and Nathan Gower Producer: Beth Ashmead-Latham Series producer: Tom Colls Production coordinator: Brenda Brown Editor: Richard Vadon
India’s election has been running since 19 April. With results imminent on 4th June, More or Less talks with Chennai based data communicator Rukmini S. She founded Data for India, a new website designed to make socioeconomic data on India easier to find and understand. She talks us through the changing trends to help give a better picture of the type of country the winning party will govern.
Producers: Bethan Ashmead and Nathan Gower Sound Engineer: Nigel Appleton Production Coordinator: Brenda Brown Editor: Richard Vadon
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has said that the UK economy is growing faster than Germany, France and the US, while Labour says the typical household in the UK is worse off by £5,883 since 2019. Are these claims fair? We give some needed context.
Net migration has fallen - we talk to someone who predicted it would - Dr Madeleine Sumption, director of the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford.
Is Taylor Swift about to add £1 bn to the British economy as some media outlets have claimed? The answer is ‘No’.
Why are our prisons full? We ask Cassia Rowland from the Institute for Government.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Charlotte McDonald, Nathan Gower, Bethan Ashmead Latham and Ellie House Series producer: Tom Colls Sound mix: Neil Churchill Production coordinator: Brenda Brown Editor: Richard Vadon
News stories earlier in the year appeared to suggest that time restricted eating – where you consume all your meals in an 8 hour time window – was associated with a 91% increase in the risk of death from cardiovascular disease.
But is this true? Tim Harford looks into the claim with the help of Cardiologist Dr Donald Lloyd-Jones, chair of the Department of Preventive Medicine at Northwestern University in the US.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Debbie Richford Series producer: Tom Colls Production coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Nigel Appleton Editor: Richard Vadon
Is it going to take 685 years to clear NHS waiting lists in England?
Are 10 per cent of MPs under investigation for sexual misconduct?
How does gold effect the UKs export figures?
What does it mean to say that a woman has 120% chance of getting pregnant?
Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Nathan Gower and Bethan Ashmead Latham Series producer: Tom Colls Sound mix: Neil Churchill Production coordinator: Brenda Brown Editor: Richard Vadon
It’s long been known that marriage is associated with happiness in survey data. But are falling marriage rates in the US dragging down the mood of the whole nation?
We investigate the statistical relationships with Professor Sam Peltzman from the University of Chicago, and Professor John Helliwell, from the University of British Columbia.
Presenter: Tom Colls Reporter: Natasha Fernandes Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Nigel Appleton Editor: Richard Vadon
If a child loves reading, how big a difference does that make to their future success?
In a much-repeated claim, often sourced to a 2002 OECD report, it is suggested that it makes the biggest difference there is – that reading for pleasure is the biggest factor in future success.
But is that true? We speak to Miyako Ikeda from the OECD and Professor Alice Sullivan from University College London.
Presenter / series producer: Tom Colls Reporter / producer: Debbie Richford Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Graham Puddifoot Editor: Richard Vadon
Polling by YouGov made headlines around the world when it suggested 20% of young adults in the US thought the holocaust was a myth.
But polling experts at the Pew Research Centre thought the result might not be accurate, due to problems with the kind of opt-in polling it was based on. They tried to replicate the finding, and did not get the same answer.
We speak to Andrew Mercer from the Pew Research Centre and YouGov chief scientist Douglas Rivers.
Presenter /series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Mix: Graham Puddifoot Editor: Richard Vadon
Libertarian populist Javier Milei won the presidential election in Argentina on a promise austerity and economic “shock” measures for the ailing economy.
Just a few months in, some are hailing the falling rate of inflation as showing those measures are working.
Economist Monica de Bolle, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, explains whether that thinking is correct.
Presenter/producer: Tom Colls Producer: Ajai Singh Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Graham Puddifoot Editor: Richard Vadon.
The Cass Review is an independent report on the state of gender identity services for under-18s in England’s NHS.
It found children had been let down by a lack of research and "remarkably weak" evidence on medical interventions in gender care.
But before it was even released, claims were circulating online that it ignored 98% of the evidence in reaching its conclusion.
Is that claim true?
We speak to Dr Hilary Cass, the author of the review, Professor Catherine Hewitt of York University, who analysed the scientific research, and Kamran Abbasi, editor in chief of the British Medical Journal.
Presenter: Kate Lamble Producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon
Netflix has a big new show named after and inspired by a classic problem in astrophysics, 'The Three Body Problem', where predicting the course and orbits of three or more celestial bodies proves near impossible.
But how faithful is the Netflix show - and original novel - to the actual physics? Dr Anna Lisa Varri from the University of Edinburgh explains what we can and can't say about the complex and beautiful motions of planets, stars and moons, and brings a dose of scientific facts to science fiction.
Presenter: Kate Lamble Producer: Nathan Gower Sound Engineer: Graham Puddifoot Editor: Richard Vadon
Is loneliness as bad for you as smoking 15 cigarettes per day? That’s the claim circulating on social media.
We trace this stat back to its source and speak the scientist behind the original research on which it is based, Professor Julianne Holt-Lunstad.
Presenter / series producer: Tom Colls Reporter: Perisha Kudhail Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Mix: Graham Puddifoot Editor: Richard Vadon
Daniel Kahneman, a Nobel prize-winning behavioural economist and More or Less hero, has died at the age of 90. Tim Harford explains his ideas and influence.
Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Series producer: Tom Colls Sound mix: Hal Haines Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Editor: Richard Vadon
In an episode of More or Less from 2012, Daniel Kahneman – the Nobel prize-winning behavioural economist who has died at the age of 90 – explains the big ideas in his book Thinking, Fast and Slow.
The area of ice covering the Arctic ocean has been in a state of long decline, as climate change takes effect. But recent fluctuations in the ice have been seized on by climate change sceptics, who say it tells a different story.
We speak to polar climate scientist Professor Julienne Stroeve to better understand how to read the ice data.
Presenter / producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon
According to the head of the British military, the Russian government spends 40% of its budget on its war machine. But is it true? With the help of Professor Bettina Renz from Nottingham University and Dr Richard Connolly from The Royal United Services Institute, Olga Smirnova investigates the figure. Presenter: Tom Colls Producer: Olga Smirnova Production Co-ordinator Katie Morrison Series Producer: Tom Colls Sound Mix: Graham Puddifoot Editor: Richard Vadon
Image: Russian Military Perform Victory Day Parade Night Rehearsal in Moscow Credit: (Photo by Oleg Nikishin/Getty Images)
For over 50 years it’s been widely reported that speaking before a group is people’s number one fear. But is it really true? With the help of Dr Karen Kangas Dwyer, a former Professor in the School of Communication at the University of Nebraska-Omaha and Dr Christopher Bader, Professor of Sociology at Chapman University, Tim Harford tracks the source of the claim back to the 1970’s and explores whether it was true then, and whether it’s true today.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Debbie Richford Production Co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Series Producer: Tom Colls Sound Mix: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon
Picture Credit: vchal via Getty
As running races get longer, the gap between male and female competitors seems to close. Tim Harford and Lucy Proctor investigate the claim that when the race is 195 miles long, women overtake men to become the fastest runners. Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Lucy Proctor Producers: Nathan Gower and Debbie Richford Production Co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Series Producer: Tom Colls Sound Mix: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon
(Image:Male and female running together up a mountain trail. Credit: nattrass via Getty)
Is school funding at record levels as the education secretary claimed? Why did the ONS change how they measure excess deaths? Is there a shoplifting epidemic? Did 6.5bn creatures arrive in the UK by plane last year?
Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Nathan Gower, Perisha Kudhail, Debbie Richford and Olga Smirnova Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Sarah Hockley Editor: Richard Vadon
In the NBA, the US professional basketball league, the average player is a shade over 6ft 6 inches tall. So just how much does being very tall increase a man’s chances of becoming a professional player?
Tim Harford talks to data scientist Seth Stephens-Davidowitz, author of Who Makes the NBA?: Data-Driven Answers to Basketball’s Biggest Questions.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Debbie Richford Production Co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Series Producer: Tom Colls Sound Mix: David Crackles Editor: Richard Vadon
(Image: Charlotte Hornets v New York Knicks. Credit: Focus on Sport/Getty Images)
What does per capita GDP tell us about the UK economy? Did the government spend £94bn helping with rising energy prices? Was Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg right about the cost of the EU covid recovery scheme? How did Ben Goldacre persuade scientists to publish all their medical research?
Tim Harford investigates the numbers in the news.
Presenter: Tim Harford Reporters: Nathan Gower and Lucy Proctor Producers: Debbie Richford, Perisha Kudhail, Olga Smirnova Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon
Big medical datasets pose a serious problem. Thousands of patients’ health records are an enormous risk to personal privacy. But they also contain an enormous opportunity – they could show us how to provide better treatments or more effective health policies.
A system called OpenSAFELY has been designed to solve this problem, with the help of a computer code “robot”.
Professor Ben Goldacre, director of the Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science at the University of Oxford, explains how it works. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Janet Staples Sound mix: Hal Haines Editor: Charlotte McDonald
What is the government’s fiscal rule on the national debt? Are international students stealing places from the UK’s young people? How much social housing is really being built? Do 90% of chip shops sell shark and chips?
Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Nathan Gower and Debbie Richford Series producer: Tom Colls Production coordinator: Janet Staples Sound mix: Rod Farquhar Editor: Charlotte McDonald
In a surprising new trend, young men and women around the world are dividing by gender on their politics and ideologies. Whilst young women are becoming more liberal, young men are becoming more conservative. Tim Harford speaks to John Burn-Murdoch, Columnist and Chief Data Reporter at the Financial Times, about why this global phenomena may be occurring and Dr Heejung Chung, Professor of Sociology at the University of Kent, explains why the ideological divisions between young men and women in South Korea are some of the most extreme.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Debbie Richford Series Producer: Tom Colls Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Mix: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon
(Picture: A couple with their back to each other busy with their mobile phones Credit: Martin DM / Getty)
Do you really pay more in council tax on a semi in Hartlepool than a mansion in Westminster? How do the Office for National Statistics work out how much the UK population is going to grow by? How much do junior doctor strikes cost? Is home grown veg worse for climate change than veg grown on a farm?
Tim Harford investigates the numbers in the news.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Nathan Gower, Debbie Richford and Perisha Kudhail Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon
How was the calculator invented? How did it go from something the size of a table to something that could be carried in your pocket, the must-have gadget of the 1970’s and 80’s?
Tim Harford unpicks the history of the calculator with Keith Houston, author of Empire of the Sum: The Rise and Reign of the Pocket Calculator.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Debbie Richford Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Series Producer: Tom Colls Sound Mix: Hal Haines Editor: Richard Vadon
Was there really a 5% measles vaccination rate in Birmingham? Has Brexit already cost 6% of the UKs economy? For how long has crime been falling? And are contestants on the reality gameshow any good at finding traitors?
Tim Harford investigates the numbers in the news.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Nathan Gower and Debbie Richford Series producer: Tom Colls Production coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Rod Farquhar Editor: Richard Vadon
We investigate Oxfam’s claim that “since 2020, the five richest men in the world have seen their fortunes more than double, while almost five billion people have seen their wealth fall”.
With the help of Johan Norberg, Historian and Author of ideas and Felix Salmon, Financial Correspondent at Axios, we explore the figures behind the wealth of the richest and uncover what it really tells us about the world’s financial markets.
And Charles Kenny, senior fellow at the Centre for Global Development in Washington DC, helps us unpick why, when looking at the world’s poorest people, measurements of wealth don’t always tell us what we really need to know.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Debbie Richford Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Series Producer: Tom Colls Sound Mix: Hal Haines Editor: Richard Vadon
(image: Elon Musk at the Viva Tech fair in Paris June 2023. Credit: Nathan Laine/Getty Images)
Was Labour shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves wrong about the increase in the price of the weekly shop? What has the violence at sea done to the cost of shipping? Why did YouGov feel the need to correct an analysis of their polling? Are there 30 million GP appointments every month? And how does wind chill work? Tim Harford investigates the numbers in the news.
Presenter: Tim Harford Reporters: Charlotte McDonald and Nathan Gower Producer: Debbie Richford Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Mix: Rod Farquhar
We investigate how the vast possibilities in a game of chess compare to the vastness of the observable universe.
Dr James Grime helps us understand the Shannon number – a famous figure on the chess side of the equation - and astronomer Professor Catherine Heymans takes on the entire observable universe.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Debbie Richford and Nathan Gower Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Series Producer: Tom Colls Sound Mix: Andy Fell Editor: Richard Vadon
We report on the state of the NHS as it struggles through a double wave of Covid and flu infections.
We report on the state of the NHS as it struggles through a double wave of Covid and flu infections.
Do only 4% of people pay inheritance tax? Paul Lewis sets out the figures.
And what do the latest life expectancy figures tell us about how long we’re going to live?
Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Kate Lamble Producers: Nathan Gower and Debbie Richford Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Graham Puddifoot Editor: Richard Vadon
How many adverts does the average person see in a day? If you search for this question online, the surprising answer is that we might see thousands – up to 10,000.
However, the idea that we see thousands of adverts is a strange and confusing one, without any good research behind it. We investigate the long history of these odd numbers, with the help of Sam Anderson from The Drum and J Walker Smith from Kantar.
Presenter: Tim Harford Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon
Did London see a 2500% increase in gun crime? Are taxes in the UK the highest since the 1950s? Did the UK have high excess deaths from Covid, compared to the rest of Europe? Do three cats go missing every second in the UK?
Tim and the team investigate a few of the numbers in the news.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Nathan Gower Series Producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon
The ‘Ndrangheta are one of Italy’s biggest and most dangerous criminal gangs. One piece of research suggested they have an annual turnover of €53bn - more than McDonalds and Deutsche Bank combined.
But is that number realistic? Professor Anna Sergi and Professor Francesco Calderoni help us figure out what kind of number makes sense.
Reporter: Perisha Kudhail Series producer: Tom Colls Sound mix: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon
(Picture: Human hands with strings controlling diagram. Credit: Boris Zhitkov/Getty Images)
Each year we ask some of our favourite statistically-minded people for their numbers of the year. Here they are - from the population of India to the results of a first division football match.
Contributors: Hannah Ritchie, Our World in Data Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter, Cambridge University Timandra Harkness, writer and comedian Rob Eastaway, maths author
Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Series Producer: Tom Colls Sound Engineer: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon
(Picture: Colourful numbers on blue background Credit: Tanja Ivanova / Getty Images)
We investigate a nutritional conundrum –can chocolate ever be better for you than salad? Today we dive in to one of our listener’s family debates and try to find an answer, with the help of nutrition experts Dr David Katz and Professor Bernadette Moore.
Reporter: Paul Connolly Researcher: Perisha Kudhail Series Producer: Tom Colls Sound Engineer: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon
(Picture: A pyramid made of chocolate and salad Credit: Gandee Vasan / Getty Images)
How many young people are unemployed? How much debt does the government owe? How many people have died from Covid? These are questions that many governments will keep regularly updated. But in China they have disappeared. We investigate the reasons behind China’s missing numbers.
Reporter: Celia Hatton Series Producer: Tom Colls Sound Engineer: Graham Puddifoot Editor: Richard Vadon
(Picture: Chinese flag behind a graph with statistics Credit: Igor Kutyaev/iStock/Getty Images Plus)
Exercise is good for you in all kinds of ways, there is no medicine like it to prevent a whole range of illnesses. But for some endurance athletes, exercise also comes with increased risk of a heart condition called atrial fibrillation.
We look for the right way to think about the risks around exercise.
Reporter: Paul Connolly Series Producer: Tom Colls Sound Engineer: Graham Puddifoot Editor: Richard Vadon
(Picture: A cyclist training in the mountains Credit: anton5146/Getty Creative)
Former Vice President Al Gore has said that climate change is predicted to lead to a billion climate refugees. But where do these predictions come from and are they realistic? We investigate the idea that floods, droughts, storms and sea level rise will cause a mass migration of people across borders.
Reporter and Producer: Tom Colls Sound Mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon
(Photo: Floods in central Somalia Credit: Said Yusuf - WARSAME/EPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock)
Veronica Carlin is a data scientist who loves romantic comedies. But she had a hunch about those movies, that there aren’t many women like her, women in STEM - science, technology, engineering and maths – taking the lead roles. So she set out on a maths quest to find out what’s what.
Presenter: Kate Lamble Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Sound Engineer: Graham Puddifoot
(Picture: A young couple with a heart-shaped balloon on the street Credit: Cultura RM Exclusive/Spark Photographic / Getty)
We check out suspect stats on boozing Brits and fishy figures on fishing fleets in the South China Sea.
With the help of Professor John Holmes from the University of Sheffield's School of Medicine and Population Health and Simon Funge-Smith, a senior fishery officer at the FAO.
Presenter and producer: Charlotte McDonald Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Sound Engineer: Graham Puddifoot
Are we alone in the universe – and if not, how many other civilisations might there be? Remarkable images and data sent back to Earth by the James Webb telescope have given a new impetus to a well-worn debate. We ask how far mathematics – and in particular a famous equation called the Drake Equation – can be used to answer one of the most fundamental questions we face. Paul Connolly investigates with the help of Catherine Heymans, Astronomer Royal for Scotland and Professor at the University of Edinburgh and Bill Diamond, President and CEO of the SETI Institute in California.
Presenter: Paul Connolly Producers: Paul Connolly and Jon Bithrey Editor: Richard Vadon Production Co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound Engineer: David Crackles
(Image: : A cluster of young stars, surrounded by clouds of interstellar gas and dust, in a nebula, located in the constellation Carina. Credit: Reuters)
The cultural importance of gold in India as a symbol of wealth, prosperity and safety is well known – but how much do Indians actually own? Reporter Perisha Kudhail looks at a widely circulated claim about Indian women owning 11% of the world’s gold, with the help of Delhi based journalist Mridu Bhandari and Joshua Saul, CEO of the Pure Gold Company. Presenter: Ben Carter Reporter and Producer: Perisha Kudhail Series Producer: Jon Bithrey Editor: Richard Vadon Sound Engineer: James Beard
(Image: A saleswoman shows gold bangles to a customer at a jewellery showroom in Kolkata. Credit: Reuters/Rupak De Chowdhuri/File Photo)
Conventional histories of mathematics are dominated by well-known names like Pythagoras, Leibniz or Newton. But to concentrate solely on figures from Europe gives us only a patchwork understanding of the rich and varied history of mathematical achievement around the world. Tim Harford speaks to Dr Kate Kitagawa, co-author of ‘The Secret Lives of Numbers’ to explore the long history of mathematical advances and innovation across civilisations and centuries, from the female mathematician at court in imperial China to the pioneers in the mathematical powerhouses of the Middle East in the first millennium AD.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Jon Bithrey Editor: Richard Vadon Sound Engineer: James Beard
(Picture: Statue of Al Khwarizmi, a ninth century mathematician Credit: Mel Longhurst/VW Pics/Universal Images Group via Getty Images)
Do you notice fewer insect splats on windscreens than you used to? There’s a study in the UK trying to measure this ‘windscreen phenomenon’, as it’s become known. We hear more about the study and whether we can draw conclusions about insect numbers in general, from reporter Perisha Kudhail, Dr Lawrence Ball from the Kent Wildlife Trust and Professor Lynn Dicks from the University of Cambridge.
Presenter: Ben Carter Reporter/Producer: Perisha Kudhail Series Producer: Jon Bithrey Editor: Richard Vadon Sound Engineer: Graham Puddifoot
(Photo: Dead insects on a windshield Credit: shanecotee / Getty)
Harvard professor Claudia Goldin has become only the third woman to win the Nobel Economics Prize for her groundbreaking research on women’s employment and pay. Tim Harford discusses her work showing how gender differences in pay and work have changed over the last 200 years and why the gender pay gap persists to this day.
Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Producer: Jon Bithrey Editor: Richard Vadon Sound Engineer: David Crackles
(Picture: Claudia Goldin at Havard University Credit: Reuters / Reba Saldanha)
Are almost half the words in the English language of French origin? It’s a claim one of our loyal listeners found surprising. Tim Harford talks to Dr Beth Malory, lecturer in English Linguistics at University College London, who explains why so many words derived from French have ended up in English.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Daniel Gordon Series Producer: Jon Bithrey Editor: Richard Vadon Sound Engineer: Graham Puddifoot
(Picture: A French dictionary showing the entry 'Dictionnaire' Credit: NSA Digital Archive / iStock / Getty Images Plus)
John Campbell, a YouTuber whose posts get millions of views, has made claims about excess deaths and the Covid vaccine. We show why he's incorrect. Also will a much-vaunted new treatment for Alzheimer's really change lives and how much longer can Tim expect his Parkrun times to improve? We look at the trends – and the rest of the team’s times.
The UK Prime Minister has announced several changes to key policies designed to help Britain reach net zero by 2050. In a major speech justifying what many see as a watering down of commitments, Rishi Sunak championed Britain’s achievements to date in cutting emissions. But where does the UK actually stand compared to other countries? Tim Harford talks to Hannah Ritchie from Our World in Data and author of “Not the End of the World”.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Nathan Gower, Jon Bithrey Editor: Richard Vadon Sound Engineer: James Beard
(Photo: Smoke rising out of chimneys at Ratcliffe on Soar power station Credit: David Jones / PA)
NHS consultants in England are striking over a pay offer of 6%. We look at whether they are paid an average of £120,000 a year and examine how much their pay compared to inflation has fallen. Also we fact check some of the claims Rishi Sunak made in his net zero speech, ask whether Britain is really that bad at building infrastructure compared to other countries and investigate the real levels of cancellations at Scotland and the UK's largest ferry company, Calmac.
After a listener emailed More or Less to ask whether world famous Venice or the slightly less famous English city of Birmingham has more canals, Daniel Gordon decided to investigate and widen the question to the whole world – with some interesting answers.
Guests: Giovanni Giusto, Venice City Councillor David Edwards-May, Inland Waterways International Dr Hamed Samir, University of Basra Bai Lee, Editor of China Grand Canal
Presenter/Producer: Daniel Gordon Series Producer: Jon Bithrey Editor: Richard Vadon Sound Engineer: David Crackles
(Picture: Gondola in Venice Credit: Jane Worthy/BBC)
Long: Housing minister Rachel Maclean claimed the government has built a record number of social rent homes. Tim and the team investigate. Following Lucy Letby’s conviction, we look at how sentences for murder have changed over the past few decades. Plus after Liz Truss’s speech this week defending her short stint as Prime Minister, Tim reminds us how her mini-budget raised borrowing costs and might have pushed up the national debt even more. And will 1 in 11 workers in England really work for the NHS by the middle of the next decade?
Presenter: Tim Harford Series producer: Jon Bithrey Producers: Daniel Gordon, Natasha Fernandes, Nathan Gower, Charlotte McDonald, Editor: Richard Vadon Production Co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound Engineer: Rod Farquhar
How can we navigate our lives in a more efficient and satisfactory way? It’s a question Professor David Sumpter is looking to answer in his new book, Four Ways of Thinking. He talks to Tim Harford about four different approaches to our day to day challenges.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Jon Bithrey Sound Engineer: Andy Fell Editor: Richard Vadon
(Picture: Conceptual illustration of mathematics Credit: Science Photo Library / Getty)
A BBC report quoted a study that said 1 in 4 men and 1 in 5 women in the UK will get skin cancer in their lifetime. Tim Harford and the team look into the detail. Also London’s Mayor Sadiq Khan said London’s average rent will hit £2,700 a month next year, with the average take home salary £2,131. How accurate are the figures and what do they tell us about the affordability of the capital’s rental properties? We fact check Donald Trump’s recent claim that 35,000 Americans died building the Panama Canal. And as noughties band Busted re-release Year 3000 with the Jonas Brothers, just how many greats should be in front of “granddaughter” in that famous lyric?
The construction of the Panama Canal linking the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans through Central America is considered one of the greatest engineering feats of all time. It also caused enormous human suffering and loss of life. Donald Trump claimed in a recent interview that 35,000 Americans died in the canal’s construction. But is that true? Tim Harford finds out, with the help of Matthew Parker, author of Hell’s Gorge: The Battle to Build the Panama Canal. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Jon Bithrey Editor: Richard Vadon Sound Engineer: Graham Puddifoot (Boat Crossing on the Panama Canal in Panama Credit: Keystone-France/Gamma-Keystone via Getty Images)
Covid related deaths are rising in England and Wales - but what do the figures really tell us? Also the UK's GDP during the pandemic has been revised upwards. Tim Harford and team ask why and discuss what it tells us about the UK's economic performance compared to other countries. Is North Sea gas really four times cleaner than gas from abroad? It's a claim recently made by the government. And we ask whether Chloe Kelly's penalty shot at the World Cup was really faster than the Premier League's fastest goal last season.
Presenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Jon Bithrey Reporters: Nathan Gower, Natasha Fernandes Editor: Richard Vadon Production Coordinator: Maria Ogundele
On this week’s episode of More or Less we interrogate a widely circulated myth relating to how much of our brain power we can access and engage. Ever heard someone say, “You know we can only use 10% of our brains, right?”. Well, they’re wrong. It’s the stuff of make believe and far-fetched movie plots. Science and evidence based research tells us so - and has, it turns out, been telling us so for decades…politely, if impatiently. So, then, if not 10%…what percentage of our brain do we actually use? From dark matter neurons to super-highway synapse and ghost cells that serve as inert echoes of our evolutionary past - with the help of two leading experts in the field, we crack open the figurative cranium of this debate and rummage around for the definitive truth.
Presenter: Paul Connolly Producers: Jon Bithrey, Natasha Fernandes Editor: Richard Vadon Sound Engineer: Rod Farquhar
(Artificial intelligence brain network/Getty)
Can you really buy an electric car for everybody in the UK for the cost of HS2? That claim was recently made on Radio 4's Broadcasting House programme. Also we look at a viral claim that 1 in 73 people who received the Covid vaccine in England was dead by May 2022. Plus we look at the size of the UK's carbon emissions when compared with China and talk about how a recent More or Less maths error pales in comparison to one in the Guardian.
Presenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Jon Bithrey Reporters: Nathan Gower, Natasha Fernandes Production Co-ordinator: Janet Staples Editor: Richard Vadon
Water used to cool nuclear reactors at the stricken Fukushima nuclear power plant in Japan is being released into the Pacific Ocean by Japanese authorities. The move has sparked protests and concerns about safety in the region and met with retaliation from near neighbour China. But how safe is the water that’s been released? Presenter Charlotte McDonald and reporter Calum Grewar investigate, with the help of Professor Jim Smith of the University of Portsmouth and Professor Gerry Thomas, formerly of Imperial College London and the Chernobyl Tissue Bank.
Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Reporter: Calum Grewar Producer: Jon Bithrey Editor: Richard Vadon Sound Engineer: James Beard Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
Butterflies are a much-loved feature of summer in many parts of the world. But how many of them are there on Earth?
That’s the question a young listener to More or Less wanted an answer to – and she couldn’t find the answer no matter how hard she searched the internet.
Presenter Daniel Gordon enlists Professor Jane Hill, a butterfly expert at York University, England, who’s also President of the Royal Entomological Society, to try and help solve the mystery.
He also consults Holly Mynott, International Officer of Butterfly Conservation, who describes the techniques used to run The Big Butterfly Count in the UK – the biggest event of its kind in the world.
Producer/Presenter: Daniel Gordon Series Producer: Jon Bithrey Editor: Richard Vadon Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Engineer: Graham Puddifoot
Football competitions are kicking off all around Europe in the coming days and weeks, including the world’s most watched division: The English Premier League. We might make our predictions on who we think is going to win a sporting competition but what factors are we considering? In this programme we look at some of the most popular variables that are taken into account when making sporting predictions and why even these have drawbacks. From upcoming football leagues to the Olympic Games, Head Analyst from Nielsen Gracenote, Simon Gleave tells us what are some of the most difficult sports to predict and why.
Presenter: Paul Connolly Producer: Natasha Fernandes Editor: Richard Vadon Production Co-ordinators: Debbie Richford and Janet Staples Sound Engineer: Graham Puddifoot
Image: Premier League Trophy, Credit: Carl Recine/Reuters
Reports on heatwaves across the globe have dominated our newsfeeds over the last few weeks, with temperatures said to have soared over the 40C mark in many parts of Europe. But across social media, not everyone is buying it. A trickle of scepticism swelled to a tidal surge, with people questioning whether temperatures are being hyped up by the wider media to drive fear and scare-monger.
In this programme, we unpick allegations made about how these temperatures are recorded - and if they are accurate. We hear from Samantha Burgess at the Copernicus Climate Change Service; Alessandro Delitala from the Sardinia Environmental Protection Agency; and Sean Buchan from Climate Action Against Disinformation. Presenter: Paul Connolly Producer: Natasha Fernandes Editor: Richard Vadon Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Engineer: Rod Farquhar
Recent global headlines have been dominated by record temperatures across Europe, North America and parts of Asia. As extreme weather events have happened for decades, how are links to climate change made? In this programme we look at how scientists use data to draw climate conclusions and hear how that data isn’t always available, with a focus on severe flooding earlier this year in part of Central Africa. With Joyce Kimutai, principal meteorologist and climate scientist at the Kenya Meteorological Department and researcher at the Grantham Institute for Climate Change, Imperial College.
Presenter: Kate Lamble Producer: Nathan Gower, Jon Bithrey Editor: Simon Watts Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Engineer: Graham Puddifoot
Official information on the numbers of dead and injured in the Ukraine war has been in short supply. Little has come from either the Ukrainian or Russian sides, with estimates from western governments and intelligence agencies filling the information void. But some Russian journalists have been documenting war deaths and have come up with a new way of estimating fatalities using probate records. With contributions from David Frenkel, reporter at Mediazona and the BBC’s Russian Service correspondent Olga Ivshina.
Japan has one of the highest rates of life expectancy and one of the lowest birth rates. But does that mean that a widely circulated claim – that more nappies aimed at adults are sold in Japan than those made for babies – is true? With guests Sarah Parsons, Senior Teaching Fellow at SOAS in London and Dr Mireya Solis, Knight Chair in Japan Studies at the Brookings Institution.
Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Reporter: Isobel Gough Producers: Isobel Gough, Jon Bithrey Sound Engineer: James Beard Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
Various claims have been made about how much water is used in the production of a pair of jeans, that cornerstone of casual clothing. With growing worries over the environmental impact of denim production, More or Less decided to investigate - with the help of journalist and researcher Elizabeth L. Cline who has written extensively on sustainability and the fashion industry. This programme was first broadcast in July 2022. Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Lizzy McNeill, Jon Bithrey Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound engineer: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon (A worker sews blue jeans in a textile company in Xintang, China, dubbed the 'denim jeans capital of the world'. Photo: Lucas Schifres/Getty images)
More than 1.2 million people came into the country to stay for more than 12 months in 2022. As only 560,000 left the country, this means net migration is at an all-time high. Both the Prime Minister and Home Secretary have said the number of people coming needs to come down. But who counts as an immigrant? How are the figures worked out?
Charlotte McDonald will be finding out what the numbers tell us about who is coming to the UK and why. Plus - what about the people who left in 2022?
An article on the UK’s Telegraph newspaper website claimed that there would be just 6 grandchildren for every 100 South Koreans today. We ask whether that figure is correct and look at why South Korea’s birth rate has fallen to one of the lowest in the world, with the help of author and mathematician Rob Eastaway and journalist and author Hawon Jung.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Bethan Ashmead Latham, Jon Bithrey Editor: Richard Vadon Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Engineer: James Beard
One of Rishi Sunak's five priorities for 2023 is to halve inflation. Given prices are still rising, we discuss whether it's going be possible. Also does Scotland have more tidal power capacity than the rest of the world combined, as has been claimed? We look at competing claims about how prepared the NHS was before the pandemic, ask whether scrapping VAT on products like tampons and e-books has actually benefitted consumers and look at the claim that one in three women in the UK has had an abortion.
‘This episode was updated on 26th June to remove an error in how we quantified 32 trillion dollars’ The level of US government debt has just surpassed 32 trillion dollars. Negotiations over raising the borrowing limit once again went down to the wire a few weeks ago. But how concerned should we all be about how much the US government borrows? We investigate with the help of Kent Smetters, professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and Betsey Stevenson, Professor of Economics and Public Policy at the University of Michigan.
Mortgage rates have risen to 6%. But are things as bad as when rates were much higher in the 1970s and 80s? We look at just how much pain today's rises mean. Also will there be just 6 grandchildren for every 100 South Koreans today? And we look into a claim that the space industry supports 18% of the UK's economy.
Presenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Jon Bithrey Reporters: Beth Ashmead Latham, Nathan Gower, Charlotte McDonald Sound Engineer: James Beard Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
A new study by researchers at Oxford University has linked better exam results at school with being breastfed as a baby. But how much faith can we put in the findings? Tim Harford speaks to Emily Oster, professor of economics at Brown University in the US and the author of three books about pregnancy and parenting.
There's been a lot of coverage about the risks electric cars may pose to infrastructure like bridges and car parks. We look at how much heavier EVs are. Plus we look at a new study that suggests a link between breastfeeding and improved grades at GCSE level. Also is throat cancer now primarily caused by a sexually transmitted disease - and are 600 million bottles going to litter Scotland because of disagreements with the UK government over the new Deposit Return Scheme?
How prevalent is hunger and malnutrition in India? With Indian data journalist Rukmini S, we interrogate recent claims that hunger has worsened dramatically in recent years, and explore how malnutrition affects child mortality in the world’s most populous country.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Nathan Gower Editor: Richard Vadon Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Engineer: Neil Churchill
The Liberal Democrats say 120 people a day in England died last year whilst waiting for an ambulance. We investigate whether the claim stands up to scrutiny. Also Rishi Sunak's pandemic-era scheme Eat Out To Help Out is back in the spotlight. How much did it really contribute to a second wave of infections? We look at a claim that no single woman in England on an average salary can afford to rent a home of her own. And Jonathan Agnew said on Test Match Special that goat is the most eaten meat in the world. Is he right?
Presenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Jon Bithrey Reporters: Jo Casserly, Nathan Gower Editor: Richard Vadon Sound Engineer: James Beard Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
(Woman looking for a flat to rent. Credit: Oscar Wong/Getty images)
We live in a world where data is everywhere – informing if not governing our lives. But this wealth of data didn’t just turn up overnight. Tim Harford talks to academics Chris Wiggins and Matthew Jones, whose new book How Data Happened aims to explain how the world we know today has been shaped by not just technological developments but battles around how emerging sources of data should be utilised.
Does Britain really have the most affordable food in Europe? That's a recent claim of the President of the National Farmers' Union. We ask if it's true and look in detail at what is driving rising food prices in the UK. We also try and make sense of the latest net migration figures, ask if dating apps are making Gen Z more single and explain why a correction to a correction on Radio 4's Farming Today wasn't quite right.
What’s the definition of being single – and how easy is it to measure? There’s a perception that young people today are more single – in a relationship sense - than ever, and dating apps are to blame. But how true is that? Ellie House investigates, with the help of Marina Adshade of the Vancouver School of Economics. Presenter: Ellie House Producers: Ellie House, Jon Bithrey Editor: Richard Vadon Sound Engineer: Rod Farquhar Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
The government has trumpeted a big fall in those waiting over 18 months for hospital treatment in England. But total numbers on waiting lists have hit a new high. Also we look at how much impact the introduction of Voter ID had on turnout in May's English local elections. We ask whether Portugal really has a divorce rate of 94%. And we remember mathematician Dr Vicky Neale of Oxford University, who has died at the age of 39. The government has trumpeted a big fall in those waiting over 18 months for hospital treatment in England. But total numbers on waiting lists have hit a new high. Also we look at how much impact the introduction of Voter ID had on turnout in May's English local elections. We ask whether Portugal really has a divorce rate of 94%. And we remember mathematician Dr Vicky Neale of Oxford University, who has died at the age of 39.
Presenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Jon Bithrey Reporters: Josephine Casserly, Octavia Woodward, Ellie House Sound Engineer: James Beard Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
For more than a decade there’ve been longstanding concerns about the credibility and reliability of science research. This “bad science” has often stemmed from poor data practice or worse. But statistics can also help us identify and understand some of what’s going wrong, whether that’s selective data-slicing or outright fabrication.
Tim Harford talks to writer and broadcaster Michael Blastland about his new BBC radio documentary ‘The Truth Police’, which hears from the outsiders who are calling out fraud, malpractice and incompetence in science.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Nathan Gower Editor: Richard Vadon Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Engineer: James Beard
Portugal has a divorce rate of 94% and India just 1%, according to a social media post about divorce in 33 countries that has gone viral. But how are these figures calculated and what do they really tell us about the quality and endurance of marriage? We investigate with guests Marina Adshade, assistant professor at the Vancouver School of Economics and Dr Cheng-Tong Lir Wang of the Institute for the Future in San Francisco.
Presenter: Ben Carter Producers: Octavia Woodward and Jon Bithrey Editor: Richard Vadon Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Engineer: Neil Churchill
The average life expectancy of Americans is shrinking at an alarming rate.
Between 2019 and 2021, a staggering 2.7 years has been shaved off, leaving the revised figure at 76.1 years - the lowest it’s been in more than two decades.
It also sees the U.S. rank 46th in the global life expectancy charts, behind Estonia and just a nose ahead of Panama.
Paul Connolly is joined by John Burn Murdoch, Mary Pat Campbell and Dr Nick Mark to discuss why, on average, citizens of the world’s richest country are dying so young.
Consisting of 2 kilograms of gold and 444 gemstones, the iconic St Edward’s Crown will play a central role in the coronation of King Charles III, as it has for many of his predecessors. There has been much speculation as to what the value of the centrepiece of the Crown Jewels really is.
Charlotte McDonald talks to Dr Anna Keay, historian and author of The Crown Jewels - the Official History, and Alan Hart, CEO of the Gemmological Association of Great Britain. Together they break down what we know about the crown’s cost to make in the 17th century and what it might be worth today.
The leaking of US intelligence documents and the arrest of a 21 year old airman who authorities believe to be responsible has caused a media and diplomatic storm. We look at how the leaks were reported by primetime Fox News host Tucker Carlson, who said seven Ukrainian troops are dying for every one Russian, contrary to most estimates. And we examine an advert Fox News took out claiming to be the American TV network most trusted for news. With guests Aric Toler from investigative journalism site Bellingcat, data journalist and author G. Elliott Morris and BBC correspondent Olga Ivshina.
Paul Connolly is expecting his second child, and the due date is just under two weeks away. In hopes of easing his anxiety every time the phone rings , he is joined by Professor Asma Khalil, Professor Chris Pettker and Doctor Melissa Wong to discover exactly how accurate his baby's due date is...
Presenter: Paul Connolly Researcher: Octavia Woodward Editor: Richard Vadon Sound Engineer: Graham Puddifoot Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
The covid-19 pandemic has brought the use of statistics into everyday life in a way never seen before. Tim Harford talks to Professor Oliver Johnson, author of Numbercrunch: A Mathematician’s Toolkit for Making Sense of Your World, about his visual presentation of covid-19 related figures on Twitter and how we can all improve our understanding and use of numbers.
Pythagoras’ Theorem, explaining the relationship between the three sides of a right angled triangle, is one of the most famous in maths. It’s been studied and put to use for thousands of years. Now two US high school students say they’ve found a new trigonometric proof for the theorem, something many in the mathematical community believe to be impossible. We discuss Pythagoras’ Theorem, the importance of proofs in maths and the chances of this being a real breakthrough with mathematician, author and YouTuber Matt Parker.
Misinformation around covid-19 and vaccines is rife and as the data available increases, so do often misleading and even wild claims. This week More or Less examines multiple viral claims that the Covid 19 mRNA vaccines increase the risk of miscarriage. To explain where these incorrect figures come from and what the science actually tells us, we are joined by Dr Viki Male, senior lecturer in reproductive immunology at Imperial College London. Presenter: Charlotte McDonald, Producers: Octavia Woodward and Jon Bithrey Editor: Richard Vadon Sound Engineer: John Scott Production Co-ordinator: Helena Warwick-Cross
(Photo by Matthew Horwood/Getty Images)
After the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank sent jitters through the financial system, Duncan Weldon explains how it’s just the latest in the long history of bank runs.
He talks to financial analyst and former banking regulator Dan Davies - author of ‘Lying for Money’ - to understand how bank runs happen, and what the repercussions of this very modern bank run might be for the global financial system. Presenter: Duncan Weldon Producer: Nathan Gower Editor: Richard Vadon Programme Coordinators: Helena Warwick-Cross Sound Engineer: Neva Missirian
(Photo credit: Reuters)
The smash hit TV show and video game ‘The Last of Us’ has spawned lots of curiosity about how worried we should be about the relatively unknown world of fungi. A figure in a recent BBC online article stated that fungal infections kill around 1.7 million people a year, about three times as many as malaria. In this episode we look at the both the global fight against malaria and David Denning, Professor of Infectious Diseases and Global Health at the University of Manchester explains the risks posed by fungal infections globally.
The Brink’s-Mat robbery remains to this day one of Britain’s biggest and most audacious heists. Six armed men stole diamonds, cash and three tonnes of gold bullion from a warehouse close to London’s Heathrow Airport in November 1983. It’s now the subject of a BBC television drama, The Gold, which includes the claim that most gold jewellery bought in the UK from 1984 onwards will contain traces of that stolen gold. But how true is that? Tim Harford and team investigate, with the help of Zoe Lyons from Hatton Garden Metals and Rob Eastaway, author of Maths on the Back of an Envelope.
Does the UK really have by far the highest domestic energy bills in Europe? We debunk a viral social media claim suggesting just that. Also the number of excess deaths has been falling in the UK - how positive should we be that we’re through the worst? Plus do we really have access to only 3% of rivers and 8% of the countryside in England – and after the conviction of former MP Jared O’Mara we ask whether 5 grams of cocaine is a lot.
How environmentally destructive is our thirst for coffee? Tim and the team investigate a claim that 29,000 coffee pods end up in landfill globally every minute with the help of Dr Ying Jiang, a senior lecturer in bioenergy from Cranfield University in the UK.
The Justice Secretary Dominic Raab says crime reoffending rates in England and Wales have fallen significantly since the Conservatives came to power. We ask whether he’s right and look more broadly at crime and conviction rates with former BBC home affairs correspondent Danny Shaw. Also we look at how much taxes in Wales might have to rise to pay for increases in NHS funding. We ask whether 13 million women in the UK are really menopausal. And we return to the debate that has sparked consternation among loyal listeners everywhere – should the word data be treated as plural or singular.
Florence Nightingale became one of the icons of Victorian Britain for her work as a nurse during the Crimean War and the public health improvements she successfully campaigned for later on. Tim Harford discusses how she and her ‘Nightingale Circle’ used spectacular diagrams to explain health statistics persuasively with RJ Andrews, editor of “Florence Nightingale, Mortality and Health Diagrams”.
How much do nurses in the UK earn compared with those elsewhere in Europe? Tim Harford and the team investigate. Also we have an update on ambulance response times, which were the worst on record in December but are showing signs of improvement. Should we use the word data in the singular or plural? The Financial Times has just changed its policy and Tim’s not happy. We look back at women who have made a key contribution to economics but have often been forgotten. And we hear how a spreadsheet error by the Office for National Statistics made the UK’s productivity appear to be one of the fastest improving in Europe.
The UK’s Office for National Statistics recently published some dramatically incorrect data - all because of a spreadsheet slip-up. But that’s just the most recent in a long list of times when spreadsheets have gone wrong, often with costly consequences
Stand-up mathematician Matt Parker takes us through a short history of spreadsheet mistakes.
The International Monetary Fund says the UK will be the only major economy to shrink in size this year. We ask how much faith we should put in the IMF’s forecasts and look at some of the big economic challenges facing the UK. Also why the headline number of job vacancies in the NHS in England doesn’t tell the whole story of staff shortages. And why has there been such a dramatic change in whether people describe themselves as British or English?
A new study led by Imperial College in London suggests that data from loyalty card spending in supermarkets and pharmacies could be used as a way of detecting ovarian cancer much earlier. Tim Harford discusses the findings with Professor Hannah Fry, who was most recently on the show talking about her own experience with cancer.
Has trade with the EU increased since Britain left the European Union? Tim Harford and the team look at a claim suggesting just that. There’s a row over the renaming of a street in North London previously called Black Boy Lane – but how much has it really all cost? Also are there more pensioners in “millionaire households” than pensioners in poverty. And mathematician Hannah Fry talks about a new study suggesting cases of ovarian cancer can be detected by looking at spending on loyalty cards.
A widely respected and cited study says humans and livestock account for 96% of all mammals on Earth. We ask how the study was carried out and what hope there might be for the future. Plus we answer another listener question about whether most mammals are in fact rodents. With the help of Dr Hannah Ritchie, Deputy Editor at Our World in Data and Dr Axel Rossberg, Reader in Theoretical Ecology at Queen Mary University of London.
Jeremy Hunt has pledged in a new social media video to halve the UK’s high rate of inflation. Tim Harford and the team fact check the Chancellor’s claims. Also – CPI, CPIH, RPI – which measure of inflation is best for assessing the impact of the rising cost of living? Plus has the number of GPs in England gone up or down since the start of the pandemic. And does toilet paper cause 15% of global deforestation?
Presenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Jon Bithrey Reporters: Josephine Casserly, Nathan Gower, Louise Hidalgo, Charlotte McDonald Sound Engineer: James Beard Production Co-ordinator: Helena Warwick-Cross Editor: Richard Vadon
A British company has claimed that the production and use of toilet paper is responsible for 15% of deforestation globally. We investigate the claim and ask what the true environmental cost of toilet paper is. Charlotte McDonald talks to climate change scientist Professor Mary Gagen, chief adviser on forests to the World Wide Fund for Nature, the WWF.
Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Producer: Louise Hidalgo and Jon Bithrey Editor: Richard Vadon Production Coordinator: Helena Warwick-Cross Studio Engineer: Rod Farquhar
How long are people really waiting when they call 999 for an ambulance? Tim Harford and the team examine in detail the sheer scale of delays in responding to emergency calls. We also ask why the NHS is facing a crisis when it’s got more funding and more staff than before the pandemic, with the help of Ben Zaranko from the Institute for Fiscal Studies. Plus we fact check a claim from one of Britain’s leading teaching unions about pay. And are there more pubs in Ireland or Irish pubs in the rest of the world?
Presenter: Tim Harford Series producer: Jon Bithrey Reporters: Josephine Casserly, Nathan Gower, Paul Connolly Sonic Landscape: James Beard Production Co-ordinator: Helena Warwick-Cross Editor: Richard Vadon
Image: Andy Rain/EPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock
How did an edition of More or Less from 2017 end up influencing the choice of official names for extremely large numbers? We tell the tale of how an interview between presenter Tim Harford and maths whizz Rob Eastaway did just that. Also featuring Professor Richard Brown, head of metrology at the UK’s National Physical Laboratory.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Jon Bithrey Editor: Richard Vadon Production Coordinator: Janet Staples Sound Engineer: James Beard
Image: Large number, Credit: Getty Images
Tim Harford and the team return for a new series of the number crunching show. With the huge pressures facing the NHS we ask how many people may be dying because of treatment delays in A&E. We hear what the latest census tells us about changing religious identity in Northern Ireland. We look at misleading claims about covid vaccines after the collapse of American football player Damar Hamlin. And we hear how More or Less has wielded its influence over how we all describe very large numbers.
Presenter: Tim Harford Series producer: Jon Bithrey Reporters: Nathan Gower, Louise Hidalgo, Charlotte McDonald Production Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Engineer: James Beard
When the pandemic took hold, the Chinese government imposed a zero-Covid policy that aimed to contain the virus through mass-testing and strict lockdowns.
But early in December, amidst widespread public protests and the spread of the omicron variant to more than 200 cities, those draconian, highly restrictive measures were lifted almost entirely.
For the first time in just under two years, the majority of the country’s near one-and-a-half billion citizens were free to meet, mix and mingle where they pleased, triggering what experts believe is a gargantuan wave of covid infections and related deaths. Some analysts say death rates could be as high as15,000 per day. But the Chinese authorities are reporting five or fewer deaths a day. The numbers don't stack up so More or Less's Paul Connolly speaks to some of the world's leading experts and epidemiologists to work out if China's data on covid deaths can be trusted - and, if not, what the real death toll could be.
It's possible that the question we focus on in this week's programme occurred to you as you were sipping on an Irish Coffee in Bubbles O'Leary's in Kampala, Uganda: Where can the most Irish pubs be found - in Ireland? Or in all other countries combined? The popularity and sheer ubiquity of Irish pubs is a thing to behold. In 2015, the Irish Pubs Global Federation said there was approximately 6500 Irish pubs doing business outside the Emerald Isle - and our own research tells us there's at least one Irish bar in more than 160 of the world's 195 countries. But what is the secret, the recipe for global success? And can the More or Less team track down a definite number, thus answering the question some of you will have pondered whilst settling into a firelit Irish bar on a scorching hot day in rural Hawaii.
Tim Harford discusses the numbers that help explain some of the biggest stories of the year, including the war in Ukraine, soaring inflation and a breakthrough for women’s football, with the help of Olga Ivshina, correspondent for the BBC Russian service; Chris Giles, economics editor of the Financial Times; Linda Bauld, professor of public health at the University of Edinburgh and Georgina Sturge, author and House of Commons statistician.
The World Cup in Qatar is drawing to a close. Penalties and penalty shootouts have provided some of the biggest moments of the tournament. We analyse penalty data from the World Cup and ask what boosts the chance of scoring from the spot, with the help of Ben Lyttleton, author of Twelve Yards: The Art and Psychology of the Perfect Penalty.
Why are good data so important to policymakers – whether they know it or not – and what happens when good data is missing? Presenter Tim Harford speaks to Georgina Sturge, a statistician at the House of Commons library in London and the author of Bad Data: How Governments, Politicians and the Rest of Us Get Misled by Numbers.
Qatar has been fiercely criticised over its treatment of migrant workers, many of whom have been employed to build stadiums and other infrastructure in preparation for the 2022 World Cup. We look at the wildly varying estimates of the number of migrant deaths with the help of Max Tunon, head of the Qatar office of the International Labour Organisation and Steve Cockburn, head of economic and social justice at Amnesty International.
Somalia is experiencing its worst drought for 40 years and there are warnings that millions of people need food assistance urgently. The UN body tasked with classifying levels of food security has projected a famine, although no official declaration has yet been made. We ask what data is used to formally categorise famine and explore some of the difficulties in collecting it, with the help of UN IPC Global Programme Manager Jose Lopez and Professor Laura Hammond, Pro Director of Research & Knowledge Exchange at SOAS.
Presenter & producer: Jon Bithrey Editor: Simon Watts Production Coordinator: Jacqui Johnson Sound Engineer: James Beard
(Image: People affected by the worsening drought due to failed rain seasons, look on, at the Alla Futo camp for internally displaced people, in the outskirts of Mogadishu, Somalia. REUTERS/Feisal Omar)
As the FIFA World Cup in Qatar gets underway, and the newly built stadia, lavish hotels and transport networks come to life, More or Less investigates just how much the Gulf nation has spent in the lead-up to the tournament. Reports claim the figure could be as much as $220 billion - that’s more than Qatar's annual GDP, and more than ten times higher than the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. At an estimated $15 billion, this was previously the most expensive tournament to date. With no access to Qatar’s accounts, and with very few official figures in circulation, More or Less has recruited some of the world’s leading experts in sports finance to crunch the numbers and to ask…is this really a $220 billion World Cup?
Presenter: Paul Connolly Producers: Paul Connolly and Jon Bithrey Editor: Simon Watts Production Coordinator: Jacqui Johnson Sound Engineer: Rod Farquhar
(Image: Al Wakrah Stadium, the second FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 (TM) venue: The 2022 Supreme Committee for Delivery and Legacy via Getty Images)
Tim Harford brings you the first episode of his new podcast, Understand the Economy. If you’ve been missing his dulcet tones, here’s a chance for you to have a preview of Tim Harford’s latest podcast, in which he offers really simple explanations to help make sense of the economy today. If you enjoy it, you can find the rest of the series on BBC Sounds or wherever you get your podcasts.
In this episode, inflation. What is inflation, why does it matter, and is someone to blame if it goes up? Understanding inflation will help you understand why your shopping is getting more and more expensive and why prices rarely seem to go down. Tim Harford explains why the inflation figure you see on the TV might not reflect the price rises you’re experiencing and economic historian Victoria Bateman tells us why having a boat load of silver coins isn’t always a good thing.
Everything you need to know about the economy and what it means for you. This podcast will cut through the jargon to bring you clarity and ensure you finally understand all those complicated terms and phrases you hear on the news. Inflation, GDP, Interest rates, and bonds, Tim Harford and friends explain them all. We’ll ensure you understand what’s going on today, why your shopping is getting more expensive or why your pay doesn’t cover your bills. We’ll also bring you surprising histories, from the war hungry Kings who have shaped how things are counted today to the greedy merchants flooding Spain with Silver coins. So if your eyes usually glaze over when someone says ‘cutting taxes stimulates growth’, fear no more, we’ve got you covered.
Producer: Phoebe Keane
Researcher: Drew Hyndman
Editor: Clare Fordham
Find all the episodes here: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m001dwr7
A BBC Long Form Audio Production for BBC Radio 4
How can journalists improve their use of statistics in their reporting of the world around us? It’s a question US academics John Bailer and Rosemary Pennington tackle in their new book Statistics Behind the Headlines. They join Tim Harford to talk about how journalism can be improved by asking the right questions about numbers and using them in the wider context of a story. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Jon Bithrey Editor: Simon Watts Production Coordinator: Jacqui Johnson Sound Engineer: Graham Puddifoot
(Image: Electronic and paper media: scanrail/Getty)
Lula Da Silva has pledged “zero deforestation” in the Amazon as he prepares to become Brazil’s next president, in contrast to the policies of outgoing leader Jair Bolsonaro under whom the destruction of the rainforest has soared. On this edition of More or Less we ask how much of the Amazon has been lost and whether Lula’s aim of zero deforestation can be achieved.
Presenter and producer: Jon Bithrey Editor: Simon Watts: Sound engineer: David Crackles Production Co-ordinator: Jacqui Johnson
(Image: Aerial view of the deforestation of the Amazon: Reuters/Ueslei Marcelino/File Photo)
This week, China released its third quarter GDP figure. At 3.9%, its rate of economic growth is better than many analysts expected, but still significantly short of the 5.5% target the Chinese government had set itself.
There was an unprecedented delay in releasing this particular GDP stat - and that delay coincided with the 20th Chinese Communist Party congress. President Xi Jinping was reappointed for a historic third term at the twice-a-decade gathering.
Some analysts found the delay suspicious. Did President Xi postpone the release of the GDP figures so it wouldn’t tarnish the congress? And can the figure of 3.9 per cent be trusted anyway?
Paul Connolly investigates with the help of John Burn Murdoch, Chief Data Reporter at The Financial Times; Associate Professor of Government at Cornell, Jeremy Lee Wallace and Dr Linda Yueh, Oxford University economist and author.
Presenter and Producer: Paul Connolly Editor: Simon Watts Programme Coordinator: Jacqui Johnson Sound Engineer: Neva Missirian
(Image: Chinese President Xi Jinping: Mark R Cristino/EPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock)
A US government lawyer recently caused a stir in the publishing world when he said during a high profile legal trial that half of all new trade titles – books aimed at a general audience - sell a dozen copies or less. Tim Harford investigates with the help of Kristen McLean from the NPD Books group.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Octavia Woodward, Jon Bithrey Editor: Emma Rippon Production Coordinator: Jacqui Johnson Sound Engineer: Graham Puddifoot
(Image: Stack of books on display at the bookstore: bitterfly/Getty)
The former head of the US Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke is named as one of three winners of the 2022 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences for his work on how banking collapses were a major factor in the Great Depression of the 1930s. He shares the prize with two fellow US academics, Douglas Diamond and Philip Dybvig. Tim Harford discusses the significance of their work focusing on the role of banks and why their smooth functioning is so important to society.
Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Producer: Jon Bithrey Editor: Emma Rippon Production Coordinator: Jacqui Johnson Sound Engineer: James Beard
(Image: Former Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke speaks after he was named among three U.S. economists awarded the 2022 Nobel Economics Prize, during a news conference at the Brookings Institution in Washington, U.S., October 10, 2022. REUTERS/Ken Cedeno)
A cheating scandal is currently rocking the world of chess, as World Champion Magnus Carlsen accuses the young American Hans Niemann of cheating. A bombshell new report has said that Niemann is likely to have cheated in over 100 games online, and uses data to support its argument.
So how is statistics being used to catch cheats in chess - and just how prevalent might cheating be at the highest levels of the game? David Edmonds finds out. Presenter: David Edmonds Producer: Nathan Gower Editor: Richard Vadon Programme Coordinator: Jacqui Johnson Sound Engineer: Graham Puddifoot
(Image: US international grandmaster Hans Niemann, St. Louis, Missouri, on October 6, 2022: Photo by Tim Vizer /AFP via Getty Images)
A survey from a mental health charity suggested that more than a third of British teenagers had been prescribed antidepressants. We debunk the figure. Also we investigate a tweet from the UK Treasury about how much homebuyers will save in stamp duty. Plus how Mexico has been hit by earthquakes three times on the same day of the year - what are the chances? And how incorrect figures from the government have given a false picture of the number of cars on Britain’s minor roads.
Presenter: Tim Harford Series producer: Jon Bithrey Reporters: Nathan Gower, Charlotte McDonald Production Coordinator: Jacqui Johnson Sound Engineer: James Beard
This week NASA slammed a spacecraft into an asteroid in the hope of diverting its course. The Double Asteroid Redirection Test or DART mission will help scientists understand how easy it would be protect Earth if one was headed in our direction. More Or Less first discussed this in 2016 with a little help from the movie Armageddon – with listeners getting in touch once again we ask how many asteroids are really out there and how dangerous they might be to Earth. Presenters: Charlotte McDonald and Simon Maybin Producer: Charlotte McDonald Editor: Richard Vadon Production Coordinator: Jacqui Johnson Sound Engineer: James Beard
(Image: 3D rendering of a swarm of Meteorites or asteroids entering the Earth atmosphere: ratpack223/ Getty)
The value of the pound against other currencies has been incredibly volatile ever since the Chancellor’s ‘mini-budget’. We ask how much we should worry and look at how much taxes will really fall. Also did 4.1 billion people really watch the Queen’s funeral? Gas prices are falling – so why aren’t energy bills? There are early signs that new covid variants could cause another spike in cases over the winter. And with the government lifting a moratorium on fracking, we ask how seismic a number the current limit of 0.5 on the Richter scale actually is.
Presenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Jon Bithrey Reporters: Charlotte McDonald, Nathan Gower Production Coordinator: Jacqui Johnson Sound Engineer: James Beard
Ukraine has reportedly recaptured nearly 10,000 square kilometres of territory that had been occupied by Russia. We ask where the numbers come from and what they mean. Plus with Norway supplanting Russia to become Europe’s biggest supplier of natural gas, we ask how much money the country is making from the increased demand and higher prices.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Jon Bithrey Editor: Richard Vadon Production Coordinator: Jacqui Johnson Sound Engineer: Neil Churchill
Ukraine has reportedly recaptured nearly 10,000 square kilometres of territory that had been occupied by Russia. We ask where the numbers come from, what they mean and why everyone is comparing them to the size of Greater London. We ask how much money Norway is making out of the current energy crisis. Also why is the pound so weak against the dollar, some odd claims about women and exercise and does it really take 20,000 uses for an organic cotton bag to become more environmentally friendly than a plastic bag?
Presenter: Tim Harford Series producer: Jon Bithrey Reporters: Charlotte McDonald, Nathan Gower Production Coordinator: Jacqui Johnson Editor: Richard Vadon
Is fashion really the second most polluting industry after oil and does it account for 10% of greenhouse gas emissions? Sustainable fashion journalist Alden Wicker does some fashion fact checking with Adam Fleming, presenter of BBC podcast and Radio 4 programme Antisocial. And reporter Charlotte McDonald revisits a claim made in an edition of More or Less last month about the effectiveness of using condoms as a form of contraception.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Jon Bithrey Editor: Richard Vadon Production Coordinator: Jacqui Johnson Sound Engineer: Rod Farquhar
(Image: Models display outfits / BBC images/Susana Vera/Reuters)
One of Liz Truss's first acts as Prime Minister was to announce a giant plan to protect domestic energy users from huge rises in wholesale gas and electricity costs, meaning a typical household will pay about £1000 less than otherwise would have been the case. We ask how much the Energy Price Guarantee will cost the government and also explain what a “typical” household really is. A consultation has opened into whether we’d like more of our goods and services priced in imperial measures – but some listeners are suggesting a survey on the issue is biased against metric. And we examine a claim made on the BBC’s Springwatch programme that all of the gardens in Newcastle are bigger than the combined size of our national parks.
Presenter: Tim Harford Series producer: Jon Bithrey Reporters: Nathan Gower, Charlotte McDonald Production Coordinator: Jacqui Johnson Editor: Richard Vadon
Pakistan is battling a huge natural disaster as a result of heavy monsoon rains. It’s been widely reported that a third of the country is under water. But can that really be the case? Featuring the BBC’s correspondent in Pakistan Pumza Fihlani and Dr Simon Cook, a senior lecturer in Environmental Science at the University of Dundee.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Jon Bithrey Editor: Richard Vadon Production Coordinator: Jacqui Johnson Sound Engineers: Graham Puddifoot & James Beard
(Image: aerial photograph of flooded residential areas after heavy monsoon rains in Dera Allah Yar, Balochistan province. Credit: Getty/Fida Hussain)
Devastating floods have wreaked havoc across Pakistan after the heaviest monsoon rains in at least a decade. But is a third of the country really under water, as has been claimed? Also why do electricity prices in the UK rise in line with gas prices when we get so much of our power from other sources like nuclear, wind and solar? As criminal barristers go on strike in England and Wales, we ask if those starting in the profession really earn £12,200 a year. And as Boris Johnson waves goodbye to Downing Street, we investigate his claim that 70% of the UK now has access to gigabit broadband.
Presenter: Tim Harford Series producer: Jon Bithrey Reporters: Nathan Gower, Charlotte McDonald Production Coordinator: Jacqui Johnson Editor: Richard Vadon
Daily advances in the technology of artificial intelligence may leave humans playing catch-up – but in at least one area we can still retain an edge, mathematics. However it’ll require changes in how we think about and teach maths and we may still have to leave the simple adding up to the computers. Junaid Mubeen, author of Mathematical Intelligence, tells Tim Harford what it’ll take to stay ahead of the machines.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Jon Bithrey Sound Engineer: Rod Farquhar Production Coordinator: Jacqui Johnson Editor: Richard Vadon
(Image: Digital generated image of artificial intelligence robot scanning the data: Getty / Andriy Onufriyenko)
With energy prices in the UK spiralling, Tim Harford asks whether there is an easy and realistic way for bills to be cut. Also the number of excess deaths in the UK is rising – we’ll hear how much covid is still to blame. We return to the subject of counting in twenties, this time hearing how the Welsh language mixes traditional and decimal systems. And we debunk some spurious social media claims around Liverpool players and asthma medication.
When the official figures were announced in Kenya’s presidential election, it looked like the total percentage share of the vote for each candidate came to more than 100%. As this should not be possible, many wondered if up to 142,000 votes might be miscounted. We explore what turns out to be a simple mathematical misunderstanding of the numbers.
Videos on TikTok have been claiming that so-called “natural” birth control methods can be 99% effective. We examine what we really know, and how we know it.
The opinion polling industry’s reputation has taken a battering in recent years, as high profile slip-ups in the US presidential election exposed frailties. So should we write them off? Not according to Economist data journalist G Elliot Morris, who’s written a book called Strength in Numbers: How Polls Work and Why We Need Them.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Jon Bithrey Editor: Richard Vadon Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Engineer: Rod Farquhar
Ahead of the opening of the new season of the English Premier League, baseless rumours and dodgy statistics circulating online have implied that Liverpool FC use asthma medication to enhance their players’ performance.
Ben Carter speaks to sports scientist Professor John Dickinson to examine the science that disproves these rumour, and tracks down its original source with the help of Mike Wendling from the World Service's Trending programme.
Presenter: Ben Carter Producer: Richard Vadon
Why do we measure the world around us in the way we do? There is a rich history to be explored - from measuring the depth of the Nile in Ancient Egypt to the central role the French played in developing the metric system and the ultra-precise measurement systems we use today. Presenter Tim Harford is joined by journalist and author James Vincent to discuss the political, social and technological factors that have influenced how we size up our world.
US athlete Devon Allen has made global headlines this week after being disqualified from the 110m hurdles final at the World Athletics Championship in Eugene, Oregon. He was judged to have left the starting blocks a thousandth of a second too early. On More or Less we crunch the numbers behind false starts in athletics, asking how quick is too quick when it comes to reacting to a starting gun and whether something else might have gone wrong with the measurement system.
In his State of the Nation address in early June 2022, Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni said that Uganda was on the cusp of becoming a middle income country. That’s been contradicted by World Bank figures. In response to a question from a More or Less fan in Uganda, Tim Harford looks at how a country’s income status is calculated and what relevance it has. Featuring Rachel Sebudde, Senior Economist at the World Bank.
Various claims have been made about how much water is used in the production of a pair of jeans, that cornerstone of casual clothing. With growing worries over the environmental impact of denim production, More or Less decided to investigate - with the help of journalist and researcher Elizabeth L. Cline who has written extensively on sustainability and the fashion industry.
Earlier this month, the US Supreme Court overturned its 1973 ruling on Roe vs Wade - the case which guaranteed a constitutional right to a legal abortion across the US, sparking heated protests and debates across the country.
But how many American women will have an abortion in their lifetime? One statistic circulating online puts it at as high as one in three. Reporter Charlotte McDonald has been looking into the figures and has uncovered some surprising statistics.
Covid cases are rising once again – how accurately are official figures picking up the new wave and how worried we should be? We discuss inflationary spirals and how much wage and pension increases contribute to inflation. Also how many parents actually struggle with childcare costs? Can long waits at A&E be put down to the pandemic and why the French count differently to the British.
After beating a plagiarism claim in court, musician Ed Sheeran said that musical coincidences were inevitable with only 12 notes to choose from… but what do the numbers say? Mathematician and concert pianist Eugenia Cheng takes us through the mathematics of music and explains how the power of exponentials mean that just a handful of notes can open up a seemingly endless world of musical variety.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Nathan Gower Programme Coordinator: Janet Staples Sound Engineer: Neil Churchill
Do rail workers really earn £13,000 a year more than nurses? As rail strikes severely hit services we look at some of the claims being made around pay – and explain how you can measure average pay in different ways.
Plus we investigate claims that Chancellor Rishi Sunak wasted £11bn by paying too much interest on Britain’s national debt.
Is pollution from tyres really 2000 times worse than pollution from exhausts?
And we look at sex and statistics in America.
Produced in partnership with the Open University.
Credits: Presenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Charlotte McDonald Reporters: Nathan Gower, Jon Bithrey Production Coordinator: Janet Staples Sound Engineer: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon
Magazine articles and advice columns are commonly littered with spurious statistics about how much sex we’re having. So how much do we really know – and what are the difficulties of collecting information about such an intimate part of our lives?
Doctor Marina Adshade from the Vancouver School of Economics, who specialises in the economics of sex and love, answers questions posed by a curious More or Less listener in Japan.
The former Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt says that the cost of maternity litigation claims in England is now more than the cost of salaries for maternity nurses and doctors. We crunch the numbers and ask how worried parents and taxpayers should be. Also are there more bees in the world than stars in the galaxy? And would planes be much lighter if they didn’t bother with windows? Maths Professor Hannah Fry talks to us about her experience of cancer and the choices she and others have faced after a diagnosis. And we hear from author Simon Singh, who wants to bring fun maths conversations into homes everywhere.
Produced in partnership with the Open University.
British mathematics professor and broadcaster Hannah Fry has spent many years trying to explain the world through numbers. But when she was diagnosed with cervical cancer she embarked on a new mission – to discover whether the medical world, and we as individuals, make the right choices around treatment. Are patients always given the facts – and the time - they need to make rational decisions? And could we be at risk of unnecessary overtreatment?
The UK has a low unemployment rate, and a large number of people who are not working right now – we look at how both of these are true with the help of Chris Giles from the FT and Louise Murphy from the Resolution Foundation.
Have pyramids really moved 4km south since they were built?
For years, the media has been claiming that the odds of having identical triplets are one in 200 million – we are very suspicious. And we look at apparently concerning reports about women's life expectancy in the poorest parts of England.
Plus, we have received a lot of emails from listeners about last week’s episode. Some questioning the definition of a billion, others questioning our explanation of the nautical mile. We do some reflecting.
In the 1980s, Dr Marcia Herman-Giddens was one of the first people to notice that girls were starting puberty earlier than expected. We talk to Dr Marcia Herman-Giddens and Dr Louise Greenspan about what we know now about whether the age of girls’ puberty is falling.
(Mother and daughter in the supermarket choosing sanitary items. Getty Images)
Is the government really spending a billion pounds on the Jubilee, as some have claimed? We investigate some of the facts and figures around this week’s commemorations. We also ask why energy bills are becoming so high in the UK when we actually have plenty of gas, and we unpack the mystery of measuring fuel poverty. Plus after the Texas school shooting we investigate the statistics around gun deaths in the US.
And finally we hear about the joys and perplexities of imperial measures with Hannah Fry and Matt Parker.
Nobel memorial prize winner Daniel Kahneman is one of the world’s most famous psychologists, known particularly for his work identifying the role of cognitive bias in everyday decision making. In this edition of More or Less he talks to Tim Harford about his latest book, Noise - A Flaw in Human Judgement, in which he outlines how a multitude of often irrelevant factors influence important decisions, whether in job interviews, the courtroom or workplaces generally - and what we can do about it.
Some recent, and surprising, estimates from the World Health Organisation suggested that the UK fared better than Germany in the pandemic. But did they get it right?
At Eurovision this year an algorithm was apparently used to replace whole countries’ votes - was it responsible for the UK’s second-place finish?
The global economy has been putting the squeeze on many of us this year. Various factors have caused food, fuel and energy prices to rocket and many households are starting to feel the pinch. We speak to economist Duncan Weldon about whether this year is the worst hit to the cost of living since records began.
An unusually large contingent of children are set to hit English secondary schools just as the number of 21 year olds dips – so are we heading for a teaching crunch in England?
Produced in partnership with The Open University.
In the fight against global warming we’re constantly told to do our bit to reduce green house gas emissions. However, a claim circulating that just ‘100 companies are responsible for 71% of global emissions’ can make any individual effort seem futile. But does this claim mean what you think it means? We look into this and the claim that the pandemic pushed South African stress levels up by 56%. With guests Abbas Panjwani from Fullfact and Kirsten Cosser from Africa Check.
(Image: Power plant emitting smoke at sunset. Credit: Enviromantic/Getty)
The World Health Organisation recently released some new estimates of the global death toll of the pandemic. But the figures for a few countries have caused controversy. Tim Harford speaks to Professor Jon Wakefield, who worked on the analysis - and Indian data journalist Rukmini S about the debate that’s erupted in India over the figures.
(man puzzled at blackboard. Credit: Getty images)
Although the climate-changing effects of Carbon Dioxide emissions are well known, they are changing our oceans too, making them more acidic. But how much?
Tim Harford explores the statistical quirks of ocean acidification, from pH to the mysteries of logarithmic scales. With Dr Helen Findlay from the Plymouth Marine Laboratory in the UK.
When much of Europe went into lockdown at the start of pandemic, Sweden’s lighter touch strategy got lots of attention. Fans of the approach say it was a huge success that showed lockdowns were pointless. Opponents say it has been a disaster. But what do the numbers say?
In this episode of More Or Less, Tim Harford and journalist Keith Moore carve a nuanced path through one of the pandemic’s most polarising approaches.
How do you go about understanding a country with a population as diverse as it is vast?
Data journalist Rukmini S is the author of Whole Numbers and Half Truths: What Data Can and Cannot Tell Us About Modern India. Tim Harford spoke to her about the power and pitfalls of using statistics to make sense of modern India, from basic questions like average income to the huge challenges of keeping track of Covid.
Have you ever looked at a numerical claim and thought ‘what on earth does that mean?’ Complex numbers are often badly communicated, making it difficult for the public to appreciate what they signify - but dial things down too much and you’re at risk of oversimplifying important issues. It’s a tightrope walk authors Chip Heath and Karla Starr have explored in their new book ‘Making Numbers Count’. Tim Harford talks to them about how we can improve the way we communicate numbers to the general public.
Producer: Lizzy McNeill
(Image: Child in front of numbers, Credit: Getty Images)
Could an explosion in tea-drinking explain a decline in deaths in England during the industrial revolution? Professor Francisca Antman, an economist at the University of Colorado Boulder believes it might.
Tim Harford discovers that dusting down the data from tea shipments and local burial records gives us surprising insight into how boiling water for tea accidentally improved public health.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Nathan Gower Sound Engineer: Graham Puddifoot
As the Russian Invasion of Ukraine continues, the effects ripple around the rest of the world. One concern involves the wheat harvest. There have been claims that Ukraine and Russia supply 25% of the worlds wheat and that as a result we’re facing a global wheat crisis. We look into this misleading figure to determine what the real impact might be.
The War in Ukraine has reminded the world how easily conflict might escalate into a Nuclear War. But according to Professor Barry Nalebuff of Yale University, good strategy and negotiating can help us with everything from avoiding Armageddon to dividing up a pizza fairly.
Tim Harford talks to Barry Nalebuff about his new book, “Split the Pie”.
Presenter:Tim Harford Producer: Lizzy McNeill
As the war in Ukraine continues, Reuters has reported that some 2.3 million people have been displaced. So far many of those have sought refuge in neighbouring countries. The UN estimates that as of the 8th of march Poland has taken in almost 1.3 million refugees, Hungary just over 200,000 and Slovakia almost 100,000.
In comparison the UK has issued visa’s to just under 1000 people. Some say this isn’t enough, however, Prime Minister Boris Johnson defended the governments record claiming that ‘"We've done more to resettle vulnerable people than any other European country since 2015." Sound familiar? Join us on a journey back to 2020 to find out whether this is accurate or just a repeated misleading claim.
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, we take a look at some of the numbers coming out of the conflict and ask how to know which information you can trust during a war. We also investigate the perplexing claim that the seas around the Chagos Islands are 100m lower than the seas around the rest of the world.
How reliable are the figures coming out of the conflict in Ukraine?
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, we consider claims about the numbers of troops involved, people killed, and planes downed.
Also: are the prime minister’s parliamentary claims about growing numbers of NHS staff backed up by data? We investigate the perplexing claim that the Chagos Islands are 100 metres below sea level. How long do you have to drive an electric car to offset the pollution from making the battery? And do we really make 35,000 decisions a day?
Lockdown. A word we’ve all become overly familiar with over the past two years. Lockdowns were intended to protect people, especially societies most vulnerable, from the risks associated with contracting Covid. However, a new study has been making headlines which claims to show that mandatory lockdowns have only reduced Covid-19 mortality by 0.2%, or one death in five hundred. We examine the evidence behind the claim.
Jabs for five to 11-year-olds, lockdown effectiveness, and being green on two wheels.
Governments across the UK have decided to offer Covid vaccinations to primary school-aged children. What was the data behind this decision?
What effect did lockdowns have on preventing deaths from Covid? We look at a research paper that says almost none. Plus, is Elon Musk right to warn of a global population collapse? And can it really be greener to ride an e-bike than a good old-fashioned push bike?
Covid vaccines will be offered to all children across the UK between the ages of 5 and 12 - some months after the same decision in countries such as Italy and Germany. It is a topic that has caused a fair amount of controversy and with controversy often comes suspicious statistical claims. We look at the data behind child hospitalisations and deaths due to Covid19.
How likely are children to end up in hospital because of Covid? And how many have died?
We scrutinise some scary stats that have been circulating on social and examine what excess deaths figures tell us about the risks of Covid compared to other illnesses.
Plus, with the gift of hindsight, we examine the joys and sorrows of modelling the spread of the virus. Do MPs understand how false positive rates work? And we unwrap the mystery of the nanomoles.
In early December 2021 a member of Penn University Women’s Swim Team caused a stir. Lia Thomas not only won three events but she had the fastest time in elite college swimming in the country in two out of three races. This achievement reignited a debate as Lia Thomas is a transgender woman; we examine the rules around testosterone and trans women’s participation in elite sport.
Boris Johnson has been ticked off for misleading Parliament on jobs and on crime.
He claimed that the number of people in employment has been rising - when it’s been falling. And he made a claim that crime has fallen - when it’s risen. We discuss the truth, and what Parliament can do to defend it.
Plus, we examine the rules around testosterone and trans women’s participation in elite sport, and the spirit of Donald Rumsfeld is with us as we try to navigate the largely unknown world of fungi.
Have you given up on your New Year’s resolution yet? Every year many of us make the promise to become better, shinier, more accomplished versions of ourselves by the same time next year. It’s often easier said than done but to an extent it really is the thought that counts. David Robson, author of ‘The Expectation Effect’ says the power of our expectations can cause real physiological effects but Mike Hall, co-director of ‘The Skeptic’ magazine isn’t convinced.
Conservative politicians have taken to the airwaves to tell us to forget the parties, and just look at the economic growth - but is the UK really growing faster than other leading economies?
The Omicron variant has raised the chance that people are re-infected with Covid - how common is that, and should it change the way we read the statistics that are reported each day?
The great statistician Sir David Cox has died; we remember his life and his contribution to the science of counting.
And does comparing the number of food banks to the number of McDonald’s restaurants in the UK tell us anything about food poverty?
Under lockdown, couples were destined to find themselves closer than ever before, but despite what you’d think – this didn’t result in a higher birth rate. In fact in developed countries across the world the birth rate is falling, we spoke to Professor Marina Adshade about why this is and what this could mean for the future.
Food writer Jack Monroe sparked national debate this week when she tweeted about food price hikes on the cheapest goods in supermarkets - but does inflation really hit low income households hardest?
Social media and some news outlets have spread claims this week that only around 17,000 people have actually died of Covid. We debunk.
We test the truth of the five second rule - is it a good idea to eat watermelon within five seconds of dropping it on the floor? And can you think yourself better?
In early January several newspapers ran article claiming that ‘women are 32% more likely to die after operation by male surgeon. If true, this is a terrifying figure but is all as it seems? We dig into the data to find out whether women should really be worried about having a male surgeon.
Are women 32% more likely to die after operation by a male surgeon? Headlines asserting this were shared across social media recently - but the truth is a bit more complicated.
We compare the price and the quality of the UK’s Test and Trace system with that of Germany and check on what’s happening to the Covid death toll during the Omicron wave.
And we investigate the worrying statistic that one in ten people are planning to start a podcast in the coming year.
In December, Republican politician Lauren Boebert tweeted the claim that ‘365,348 children went missing in 2020’. This is a shocking statistic but is it true and does it mean what we think it means? We speak to Gabriel Gatehouse, international editor of Newsnight, who has been investigating conspiracy theories including the Qanon conspiracy theory for a new podcast, The Coming Storm.
The pandemic seems to be entering a new phase as Omicron has taken hold. Is it milder? And how might we make decisions based on the latest data?
Predictions that lockdowns might lead to a baby boom have proven wrong - in fact fertility is falling.
We re-examine a baffling claim about the number of children being abducted every year in the US after claims by a Republican politician on social media, and we run our statistical measuring tape up the inside leg of the government’s promise to give everyone a booster jab before New Year’s Day.
In October of last year popular Youtubers Mark Rober and the enigmatically named Mr Beast pledged to remove 30 million pounds of plastic from the Ocean – if they could raise $30 million dollars. A dollar per pound of plastic sounds like a fairly good deal, but how much plastic is out there and will they actually be removing anything from the Ocean at all?
(Image: Sahika Encumen dives amid plastic waste in Ortakoy coastline: photo by Sebnem Coskun/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)
In recent years population growth has slowed rapidly. Experts believe that the global population will stabilise somewhere around 11 billion people. But just because global population is stabilising doesn’t mean each country is following the global trend. Some projections estimate that the population of Nigeria will increase rapidly to the point that there will be more people living in Nigeria than the whole of Europe combined. We look at the methods behind this claim.
A guide to the most concerning, striking and downright extraordinary numbers of 2021. Tim Harford asks three More or Less interviewees about their most significant and memorable figure over the past year. From the excess death toll of Covid-19; to declining total fertility rates, and a spike in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, we showcase the numbers that tell us something about the year gone by. During this programme, we speak to Hannah Ritchie, head of research at Our World in Data and senior researcher at the University of Oxford; Marina Adshade, Economics Professor at the University of British Columbia; and Heleen De Coninck, professor at Eindhoven University of Technology, and a lead author on several reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Christmas, the most wonderful time of the year – if you have something to sell that is. Every year we waste hundreds of dollars on gifts that aren’t appreciated, but how can you ensure that the gifts you buy hit the mark every time? We speak to behavioural scientist Professor Francesca Gino to find out more then use our newfound knowledge to exam an old Christmas classic
Immunity to Covid-19. We've all been hoping to develop it ever since the virus emerged two years ago. Since then, a race to vaccinate the world has begun in earnest, with many countries rolling out booster shots in response to the rise of the Omicron variant. Health officials and scientists agree that vaccines are the safest way to develop immunity to the disease. But when US Congresswoman Nancy Mace took to Fox News recently, citing a study showing a whooping 27 times better immunity from natural infection than vaccination, we thought we'd better investigate. How did this study arrive at this number, and is it a fair representation of its findings?
Masks, you may not have worn them before 2020 but now we’re all at it. With the rise of the Omicron variant countries have scrambled to reintroduce public health policies, among them mask wearing. Health officials and scientists agree that masks help reduce the incidence of covid19 infections – but by how much is still debated. Several newspapers recently reported that masks could cut Covid-19 infections by 53%, we look at how they came to this number and whether we should be believe it.
(Image: Leon Neal/Getty Images)
Vaccines are the best way to stop deaths and serious cases related to covid19, this is an irrefutable fact. However, recent ONS data seems to show that vaccinated people had a higher all cause death rate than unvaccinated people. Why is this data misleading? Here’s a clue: it’s to do with a quirky statistical phenomenon called Simpsons Paradox.
(Image: The Simpsons / TCFFC )
Nowadays if you are an academic and who needs some participants for a study you go online, but over the summer academic studies were inundated with participants who all happened to be teenage girls ... we explore how one TikTok can tip the balance of data gathering.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Chris Flynn
(Image: TikTok logo is displayed on a smartphone screen/Getty/NurPhoto/contributor)
A French minister told people to eat fewer croissants at this year’s COP26 summit, after the menu said the carbon cost of the pastry was higher than that of a bacon roll, even if it was made without butter. Tim Harford investigates whether this claim could be true, and how the effect of food on climate change can be measured.
(Image: Continental breakfast with coffee and croissants: Getty/Cris Cantón)
When Professor Martin Schweinsberg found that he was consistently reaching different conclusions to his peers, even with the same data, he wondered if he was incompetent. So he set up an experiment. What he found out emphasises the importance of the analyst, but calls into question the level of trust we can put into research.
Features an excerpt from TED Talks
(Image: Getty/erhui1979)
Who is counting, why are they counting, and what are they are counting? These three questions are important to ask when trying to understand numbers, according to Deborah Stone, author of Counting, How We Use Numbers to Decide What Matters. In this episode, she explains how different ways of totting up can have real-world consequences.
(Image: Betta Blue Red Veiltail/Getty Images/zygotehasnobrain)
Netflix has announced that South Korean survival drama Squid Game is its most popular series ever. We scrutinise the statistics behind the claim, and look at the odds of surviving one of the show’s deadly contests.
Do immigrants drive down wages, do minimum wage increases reduce job opportunities, and do people who did well in school earn more money? These are questions that the winners of the 2021 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics looked to the world around them for answers to. David Card, Joshua Angrist, and Guido Imbens developed ways of interpreting what they saw that changed the way economists think about what they see. In this episode of More or Less, presenter-turned-guest Tim Harford explains how.
(Image: Mariel boat lift, which brought over 100,000 Cubans into the United States: Photo by Tim Chapman/Miami Herald)
A chat with More or Less's founding producer and presenter plus the first episode in full. Tim talks to Michael Blastland and Sir Andrew Dilnot about how More or Less came into being (after several rejections), whether politicians and journalists are more numerate now, and where the name come from. Then, the very first episode of More or Less, originally broadcast on Radio 4 on 13 November 2001.
A look back at our origins, plus the usual mix of numerical nous and statistical savvy.
It’s two decades since More or Less first beamed arithmetic into the unsuspecting ears of Radio 4 listeners. We revisit the show’s genesis with the original presenter and producer.
Why are there two different figures about our vaccination rate doing the rounds and how does the UK now compare internationally?
Plus listener questions on how the colour of your front door affects your house price, TVs on standby mode, and more. And we try to respond to a meteor storm of complaints about our earlier item asserting that Star Trek’s Mr Spock is in fact highly illogical.
Tim Harford talks to Planet Money’s Stacey Vanek Smith about the gender pay gap in the US and the UK – and how Renaissance writer, Machiavelli might be an unlikely source of inspiration for women in the workplace.
Is our electricity extra expensive and our insulation inadequate? And a tale of tumbling trees.
Internet infographics suggest we’re paying way more for our energy than countries in the EU. Are they being interpreted correctly? And what part, if any, has Brexit had to play?
Insulation Britain activists have been gluing themselves to motorway slip-roads to raise awareness about poor home insulation. Their website says we have the least energy efficient homes in Europe. What’s the evidence?
Plus, what do the numbers tell us about migrants trying to cross the Channel in small boats? Are stereotypes about different generations backed up by the data? And is it or is it not true that the UK has lots of trees?
A coronavirus check-in, our daily mask use measured, and a minister's claim on the universal credit cut questioned.
There was a time when the latest Covid statistics were headline news daily, but as the pandemic has stretched on into its second year and third wave people don't pay as much attention. But on More or Less we still keep an eye on them because that’s how we roll.
A recent article estimated that 129 billion single-use face masks are used every day around the world. It sounds wrong, but how wrong is it? And how did it get so wrong?
Making up the shortfall from the £20 weekly cut in the universal credit benefit means working an extra two hours a week - or an extra nine, depending on who you listen to. We run the numbers.
Plus, has the number of periods women have in a lifetime increased fourfold? And how many holes does a drinking straw have?
Tim Harford talks to Jordan Ellenberg, professor of mathematics at the University of Wisconsin at Madison, about the pandemic, geometry and drinking straws.
(multi-coloured straws/Getty images)
New data appears to show that double vaxxed people between 40 and 79 are getting Covid at higher rates than people who are unvaccinated, but that's not the case. It's all down to how Public Health England estimates the size of different populations.
The Office for National Statistics described 2020 as "the deadliest year in a century". Now that we're more than two-thirds into 2021, we examine how this year is shaping up. We answer your questions on the new health and social care levy, and have words of congratulations and caution following Emma Raducanu's astonishing win in the US Open. Plus, where do you stand on in the dishwasher vs kitchen sink debate?
GUESTS: Mathematician James Ward Adele Groyer of the Covid-19 Actuaries Response Group Helen Miller of the Institute for Fiscal Studies.
Should we be worried that the protection against Covid-19 provided by the vaccines is going down? Could it really be the case that eating a hot dog takes 36 minutes from your life? The Bank of England holds 35% of Government debt. Who owns the other 65%? Has the UK spent more on Test and Trace than on its operations in Afghanistan?
American President Joe Biden has said the war in Afghanistan cost more than $2 trillion. Todd Harrison, a senior fellow at the Centre for Strategic International Studies helps us unpick what’s included in this figure.
English Covid restrictions were lifted in July. Back then, some predicted that there could be as many as 6,000 hospital admissions a day by the following month. So, what happened?
The Metropolitan Police says it’s spent £50 million on policing Extinction Rebellion since 2019. They’re on the streets again – can it really be that costly?
The economics correspondent at The Economist Duncan Weldon puts government borrowing during the pandemic into context and talk about his new book, 200 Years of Muddling Through.
Are we running out of lorry drivers? And to what extent is Brexit to blame? We look at the numbers behind a claim that there is a shortfall of 100,000 lorry drivers in the UK.
Plus, disturbing evidence that Star Trek’s Mr Spock may actually be terrible at logic.
Writer Julia Galef talks to Tim Harford about the role of numbers in helping us think more rationally, and what Star Trek’s Mr Spock can teach us about making predictions. Julia is author of The Scout Mindset, a book about how our attempts to be rational are often clouded or derailed by our human impulses, and the ways we can avoid these traps.
Producer: Nathan Gower
(Image: Leonard Nimoy as Mr Spock. Credit: Bettmann/Contributor via Getty Images)
Dr Robert Moses, a pioneer in African-American civil rights and mathematics education has died at the age of 86. Charmaine Cozier looks at an extraordinary life, from the courthouses of 1960s Mississippi to the classrooms of modern public schools, and traces the philosophy and values that threaded their way through his life.
Presenter: Charmaine Cozier Producer: Nathan Gower
Portrait of American Civil Rights activist Robert Parris Moses, New York, 1964. (Photo by Robert Elfstrom/Villon Films/Gety Images)
A year later than planned, The Tokyo Olympics, have now finished. Thousands of athletes have competed in events that few thought might go ahead and there’s been record success.
This week we take a look at Olympic numbers – how many records were broken in Tokyo, what factors might have influenced the races and what else can the data tell us?
Tim Harford speaks to Dr Joel Mason, who runs the blog, Trackademic.
Producer: Olivia Noon
As some countries rapidly roll out vaccination programmes, there have been concerns that increases in infection rates amongst vaccinated groups mean vaccines are less effective than we hoped, especially in the face of the feared Delta variant.
Epidemiologist Dr Katelyn Jetelina from the University of Texas Health Science Centre School of Public Health explains why this isn’t what the numbers show – rather than decreasing vaccine effectiveness, increasing rates can be explained by a statistical phenomenon known as ‘base rate fallacy’.
Presenter: Charlotte McDonald
Producer: Nathan Gower
June saw a brutal heatwave shatter a number of all-time temperature records in Canada and the Northwest of the USA. But when can we attribute new records to man-made climate change, rather than natural variation? Peter Stott, an expert in climate attribution at the UK’s Met Office, explains how climate change has dramatically increased the probability of seeing such extremes.
Presenter: Tim Harford
Producer: Nathan Gower
The Delta Variant was first identified in India, fuelling a huge wave of cases and deaths. It is now spreading around the world, becoming the most dominant variant in many countries. This week we take a look at the numbers - where’s it spreading, how is this different to previous waves and what can be done to stop it?
Tim Harford speaks to Professor Azra Ghani, Chair in Infectious Disease Epidemiology at Imperial College, London and John Burn-Murdoch, the chief data reporter at The Financial Times.
On the day the Government plans to drop the remaining Covid restirictions, Tim Harford and the More or Less team try to work out how long cases will continue to rise and whether we can be sure the link with deaths and hospitalisations has been broken. Is this “freedom day" or an unnecessary gamble with people’s lives?
In recent months, Twitter has rarely been out of the headlines in Nigeria. After it deleted a tweet by the country’s president, the Nigerian government responded by banning it altogether. In the media coverage of the story it has been commonly claimed that Nigeria has 40 million Twitter users – but could this really be true? We spoke to Allwell Okpi of the fact-checking organisation AfricaCheck.
Also, which places have the best full vaccination rates in the world? Turns out, its some of the smallest. We run through the top five.
Producer: Nathan Gower
To some on the internet, the cheap anti-parasitic drug Ivermectin is a potential wonder drug that could dramatically change the global fight against Covid-19. It has passionate proponents, from a small group of scientists to the more conspiratorially-minded. But with a scattered evidence base of varying quality, what - if anything - do we know for sure about Ivermectin? And is uncovering the truth a more complex process than some appreciate?
With Gideon Meyerowitz-Katz from the University of Wollongong, Australia.
Producer: Nathan Gower
The UK’s Covid cases are still rising and Scotland is being hit particularly hard - so are we speeding up our vaccination programme in response?
Will many of the UK’s coastal towns, not to mention central London, be underwater in the next few years?
Do the country’s poorest households really pay more than half their income in tax?
What are the top five places with the best vaccination rates in the world? The answers may surprise you.
We speak to Tom Chivers, a science journalist who has written a book called “How to Read numbers” with his cousin the economist David Chivers.
This year sees the delayed 400th anniversary celebrations of the Mayflower voyage, an event seen as a crucial moment in the history of the United States. But how many people alive today can trace back their lineage to those first 102 passengers? Tim speaks to Rob Eastaway and Dr Misha Ewen about maths and the Mayflower.
The Delta variant is behind the big increase in the number of new Covid 19 cases in the UK since April. We take a look at what impact vaccines have had on infections, hospitalisations and deaths.
Chris Packham told viewers on the BBC’s Springwatch that blue tits eat 35 billion caterpillars a year. We get him onto the programme to explain.
How much does Type 2 diabetes cost the NHS a year? While exploring a dubious claim we find out why its hard to work that out.
Is it true that on in two people will get cancer? We’ve looked at this statistic before but listeners keep spotting it on TV.
We also ask: if the SarsCov2 RNA is 96% similar to the RNA of a virus found in bats - is that similar, or not?
To find out where a virus comes from, researchers compare it to other viruses to try to trace its origin. This leads to claims like SARS-CoV-2 is 91 or even 96% similar to other known viruses. But what does that really mean? Tim Harford talks to the virus ecologist Marilyn J Roossinck.
The official number of deaths attributed to Covid 19 around the world in the whole of 2020 is 1.88 million. The global toll this year surpassed this figure on 11th of June. We look at how things are worse worldwide, despite vaccines and lock downs.
Does the UK have the worst bathing sites in Europe? That’s certainly a claim made by a number of newspapers. We show why this is not the case.
Health Secretary Matt Hancock has been in the news again with comments regarding care homes during the pandemic. Just how good was the government’s ‘ring of protection’ around care homes during the first wave - and the second? We speak to Steven Johnson about his book ‘Extra Life: A Short History of Living Longer.’
Steven Johnson, author of Extra Life, tells the fascinating history of life expectancy, and the extraordinary achievements of the last century, in which it has practically doubled.
It’s a story that has data at its heart, from the ground-breaking invention of the category itself in 17th century London to the pioneering social health surveys of W.E.B. Du Bois in 1890s Philadelphia.
Tim Harford spoke to Steven about the numbers beneath possibly the most important number of all.
Covid cases are rising again in the UK – should we be worried about a third wave? Tim Harford speaks to David Spiegelhalter, Winton Professor of Risk at the University of Cambridge.
How safe are smart motorways? Many listeners have concerns that they seem more dangerous than conventional motorways. We take a look at the numbers.
What proportion of adults in England have been vaccinated? Listeners have spotted a potential discrepancy in the public data online.
Are 80% of women wearing the wrong size bra? This frequently repeated statistic has been around for decades – could it possibly be true?
Health Minister Matt Hancock recently told the House of Commons that: “The number of vaccinations happening in Bolton right now is phenomenal - tens of thousands every single day.” We explain why this is not the case.
The recent SNP election success has turned attention to the question of independence. We compare Scotland’s finances to the comparably sized Yorkshire and Humber region.
How do you work out 28 + 47 in your head? We speak to mathematician Katie Steckles.
A listener asked us to find out if it is true that the average age of a gamer is over 40.
Plus, we take a look at this claim from Netflix documentary Seaspiracy: “if current fishing trends continue we will see virtually empty oceans by the year 2048.”
Popular Netflix documentary Seaspiracy has sparked a lot of debate recently, including some controversy over some of the claims the documentary makes and the numbers behind them. One of the most striking is that: “if current fishing trends continue we will see virtually empty oceans by the year 2048.” Although overfishing is a global problem, we take a look and find that this scenario is unlikely.
Wales has given one vaccination dose against Covid 19 to a larger proportion of their population than any other country except a couple of super tiny ones. They’ve given one vaccine dose to over 80% of their adult population. We explore some reasons why they seem to be doing so well.
The UK continues to do poorly at Eurovision – we take a look back over the years to examine why the UK used to do well, and why it doesn’t any more.
Waiting lists for NHS treatment across the UK have grown – but why are things so bad in Northern Ireland?
Is it true that 42% of young people are living at home with their parents? We find out what a young person is and why they haven’t flown the nest.
The Recovery Trial, a nation-wide clinical study in the UK, helped identify treatments for Covid 19 in the early months of the pandemic. Tim Harford speaks to Professor Martin Landray of Oxford University whose team established the randomised trial.
Tim Harford interviews Milo Beckman - a young mathematician, still in his twenties, who has written a book called ‘Math without Numbers’. Milo explains why he wanted to strip out digits to make it easier to describe the beauty of mathematics.
Mexico City’s official Covid 19 death toll did not seem to reflect the full extent of the crisis that hit the country in the spring of 2020 - this is according to Laurianne Despeghel and Mario Romero. These two ordinary citizens used publicly available data to show that excess deaths during the crisis - that’s the total number of extra deaths compared to previous years - was four times higher than the confirmed Covid 19 deaths.
Bayes’ Rule has been used in AI, genetic studies, translating foreign languages and even cracking the Enigma Code in the Second World War. We find out about Thomas Bayes - the 18th century English statistician and clergyman whose work was largely forgotten until the 20th century.
In 2020 there were 1.8 million reported Covid deaths. So far this year, we’ve had 1.2 million. We’re currently seeing around 12,000 deaths a day across the world. But while some areas are seeing falls in numbers, others such as India are seeing a surge.
This week Tim Harford tries to answer the question: Will there be more global deaths this year from Covid 19 compared to last year?
If we brought together all the Covid 19 vaccine needed for the whole world, how much space would it fill up? An Olympic size swimming pool? We do some back of the envelope sums.
Plus - we look at the increased risk of clots from pregnancy. Last week we looked at the increased risk of getting a clot from taking the combined contraceptive pill and compared it to risk of possible rare clots identified following the Astra Zeneca jab. How does pregnancy compare?
The Astra Zeneca Covid 19 jab remains in the headlines because some regulators have concluded that it may raise the risk of a very rare type of blood clot, albeit to a risk that is still very low. In the past few weeks a number of countries have said they will limit its use to older age groups. But people are drawing comparisons to the contraceptive pill which is well-known to increase the risk of clots and asking why this level of risk is tolerated. Is this comparison fair? Tim Harford speaks to Professor Frits Rosendaal from the University of Leiden in the Netherlands and Susan Ellenberg, professor of biostatistics at the University of Pennsylvania.
The impressive speed records of a well-known gamer called Dream for the video game Minecraft have come under scrutiny. Many say that Dream has completed speed runs in such a fast time that it doesn’t seem possible. Are these suspicions correct? We speak to stand-up mathematician Matt Parker who has looked at the probabilities on the elements of chance in the game to see if these records seem plausible.
On this week’s programme we talk to Clare Griffiths from the UK’s coronavirus dashboard and Alexis Madrigal from the Atlantic Magazine’s Covid Tracking Project in the US.
Many countries recently decided to suspend the use of the AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine over fears it was increasing the risk of blood clots. The European Medicines Agency and the WHO called on countries to continue using the vaccine but regulators in individual countries opted to be cautious, waiting for investigations to take place. But why?
Tim Harford explores the risks of blood clots and weighing up whether it was necessary to suspend using the vaccine.
A widely reported study claims that 90% of Covid 19 deaths across the world happened in countries with high obesity rates. While an individual’s risk of death is increased by having a high Body Mass Index, the broader effect on a country’s death rate is not what it seems.
Tim Harford explores the chances of becoming a saint, inspired by a throw away comment by the detective on the TV drama ‘Death in Paradise.’
Plus, a listener has a question about the recent Europa League Draw for the final knockout round. He spotted that none of the teams face a rival from their own country. What were the chances of that happening?
Cases of Covid 19 began to soar in the US in the autumn. By early January there were around 300,000 new cases a day. But since then the numbers have fallen steeply. What caused this dramatic drop? From herd immunity to the weather, Tim Harford explores some of the theories with Derek Thompson of The Atlantic magazine and Professor Jennifer Dowd, deputy director of the Lever Hume Centre for Demographic Science at the University of Oxford.
Are different countries counting deaths from Covid 19 in the same way? Tim Harford finds out if we can trust international comparisons with the data available.
We discover Peru currently has the most excess deaths per capita over the course of the pandemic, while Belgium has the highest Covid death count per capita.
Tim speaks to Hannah Ritchie from Our World in Data and John Burn Murdoch, senior data visualisation journalist at the Financial Times.
The UK was the first European country to surpass 100,000 deaths from Covid 19. The UK has one of the worst death rates. But can we trust the numbers? Many of our listeners have asked us to investigate. Long Covid is widely acknowledged as being a growing problem, but what are the numbers involved? Just how many people have longterm symptoms after their initial infection? There have been reports that we are drinking more in Lock Down. We examine the evidence. Dr Natalie MacDermott was one of the first guests invited on to More or Less to talk about the new coronavirus early last year. We revisit what she said then and what we know now. Plus, she tells of her own struggles with Long Covid.
If we brought all the virus particles of the Sars-CoV-2 virus from every human currently infected, how much would there be? This was a question posed by one of our listeners. We lined up two experts to try to work this out. YouTube maths nerd Matt Parker and Kit Yates, senior lecturer in mathematical biology at the University of Bath, UK give us their best estimates. One believes the particles would fit into a small can of coke, the other a spoonful.
Are exports to the EU from the UK down 68% since Brexit? This apocalyptic statistic is being widely reported, but does it really tell us what’s happening at Dover and Folkstone?
Ministers are tweeting reassuring numbers about flammable cladding on high rise buildings. We’re not so sure.
Is it really true that one in five people are disabled?
Plus, if you assembled all the coronavirus particles in the world into a pile - how big would it be?
Tim explores a shocking claim that life expectancy in some parts of Glasgow is less than it is in Rwanda. But is that fair on Glasgow and for that matter is it fair on Rwanda? And a listener asks whether loss of smell is a strong enough symptom of Covid that it might be used to help diagnose the virus, replacing rapid testing.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Chloe Hadjimatheou
(Left: Rwanda refugee - photo Reza. Right: Glasgow homeless man - photo Christopher Furlong / both Getty images)
Prominent Labour politicians have claimed teachers are more likely to catch Covid-19, is that true?
England’s Test and Trace programme has been widely criticised, has it raised its game in recent months? A ferocious row has broken out between scientists about how effective fast turnaround Lateral Flow tests are, and how they should be used. We examine the data.
Plus, we examine a claim from Extinction Rebellion that British butterflies have declined by 50% since 1976.
A ferocious row has broken out among scientists about new coronavirus tests. Lateral flow tests provide results within minutes and some scientists believe they are offer accurate enough results at a speed that could allow us to resume business as usual. Others think they are so poor at detecting the virus that they could pose a huge danger.
In this week’s More or Less, Tim Harford looks at the evidence and what we know about these new tests.
Since the start of the pandemic there have been many warnings that people might die not just from the coronavirus itself, but also if they didn’t seek medical help out of fear that hospitals might be dangerous. Is there any evidence that this has happened? David Spiegelhalter is on the case.
The UK is in lockdown, but tens of thousands of people a day are still testing positive for Coronavirus. Where are they catching it? Grim data on drug deaths in Scotland has been called into question on social media. We ferret out the truth. Plus, what can venomous snakes tell us about the government's plan to increase the number of people self-isolating?
Since the start of the pandemic there have been many warnings that people might die not just from the coronavirus itself, but also if they didn’t seek medical help out of fear that hospitals might be dangerous. Is there any evidence that this has happened? David Spiegelhalter is on the case.
The UK is in lockdown, but tens of thousands of people a day are still testing positive for Coronavirus. Where are they catching it? Grim data on drug deaths in Scotland has been called into question on social media. We ferret out the truth. Plus, what can venomous snakes tell us about the government's plan to increase the number of people self-isolating?
GDP figures for the period covering lockdown appear to show that the UK suffered a catastrophic decline, worse than almost any other country. But as Tim Harford finds out, things aren’t quite as bad for the UK as they might seem - though they might be worse for everywhere else. Also, alarming claims have been circulating in the UK about the number of suicides during lockdown. We look at the facts.
There is support for the issues discussed in the programme at help.befrienders.org
Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Nathan Gower and Chloe Hadjimatheou
(Robots work on the MINI car production line at the BMW plant in Cowley, Oxford, UK. Credit: Tolga Akmen/ Getty Images)
The vaccine rollout continues: how long will it take before we see the benefits, and what benefits will we see? Figures suggest the UK’s economy performed worse than almost anywhere else in the world during the pandemic. But are the numbers misleading us? Alarming claims have been circulating about the number of suicides during lockdown. We look at the facts. Plus, will UK fishing quotas increase two thirds in the wake of Brexit? We trawl through the data.
A lot has changed since More or Less was last on air. We give you a statistical picture of the second wave: how bad is it, and is there hope? The new vaccine regime is to delay the booster shot of the Pfizer vaccine for up to 3 months. But is the first dose 52% or 90% effective? A new virus variant is meant to be 70% more transmissible, what does that mean? Plus, one of our youngest loyal listeners has a question about her classmates names.
What can ants tells us about whether something deserves to be popular? This is a question tackled in David Sumpter’s book – ‘The Ten Equations that Rule the World: And How You Can Use Them Too.’ He tells Tim Harford about some of the algorithms that you see in nature, and those harnessed by tech companies such as YouTube.
From the economic impact of Covid 19 to the number of people who have access to soap and water, we showcase figures that tell us something about 2020. Tim Harford asks a group of numbers-minded people to take a look back on the year and think of one statistic that really stands out for them. We speak to Razia Khan, the head of research and chief economist for Africa and the Middle East at Standard Chartered; Sana Safi, presenter for BBC Pashto TV at the BBC's Afghanistan Service; and Jennifer Rogers, vice president for external affairs at the Royal Statistical Society. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Charlotte McDonald
Tim Harford asks a group of numbers-minded people to take a look back on the year and think of one statistic that really stands out for them. From the spread of Covid-19 to the number of songs added to Spotify this year, we showcase figures that tell us something about 2020. We speak to Oliver Johnson, professor of information theory at the University of Bristol in the UK; Anne-Marie Imafidon, creator and CEO of social enterprise Stemettes; and economist Joel Waldfogel, of the University of Minnesota.
Tim Harford asks economist Joel Waldfogel how Covid 19 could affect spending at Christmas this year. They discuss the usual bump in sales and gift giving. The author of ‘Scroogenomics’ usually argues that presents are rarely as valued by the recipient compared to something they might buy for themselves. But what should people do this year?
Tim Harford looks at false statistical claims online about missing and trafficked children in the US. These numbers have resurfaced online in part due to conspiracy theorists following QAnon. In the past few months they have inspired protests under the banner - ‘Save Our Children’. We wade through some of the false numbers with the help of Michael Hobbes, a reporter for Huff Post and the co-host of the podcast called You're Wrong About.
The UK has become the first country in the world to approve the use of a vaccine for Covid 19. But some people are worried that the decision was taken too quickly - can we really know it’s safe yet? Tim Harford tackles these safety concerns. Plus, what is the best way to distribute the vaccine? How do you maximise the benefit of the first round of vaccines? Stuart McDonald, a fellow of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries in the UK works out what groups would benefit most.
This year has shown us the importance of good robust data - as Covid-19 spread around the world it was vital to track where it was, how many people it was infecting and where it might go next. On More or Less we’ve spent months reporting on data inaccuracies and vacuums, but what makes for good or indeed bad data? I’ve been speaking to Amy Maxmen, Senior reporter at the scientific journal ‘Nature’ about which countries are getting data collection right and which aren’t.
If you go to a gathering of 25 or more people, what are the chances one of you has coronavirus?
Imagine that you’re planning to hold some sort of gathering or dinner at your home. Take your pick of big festivities - it’s Thanksgiving in the US, we’ve just had Diwali and Christmas is on the horizon. In some places such a gathering is simply illegal anyway. But if it IS legal, is it wise?
Professor Joshua Weitz and his team at Georgia Tech in the US have created a tool which allows people in the US and some European countries to select the county they live in, and the size of gathering they are intending on having, and then it calculates the chances that someone at that party, has Covid 19.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Charlotte McDonald
A vaccine which has shown in a clinical trial to be 90% effective against Covid 19 has been widely welcomed. But what does it mean and how was it worked out? Although experts and politicians urge caution, how excited can we be about the results of this trial of the vaccine developed by Pfizer and BioNTech? Tim Harford explores what we know about this new vaccine candidate with Jennifer Rogers, vice president of the Royal Statistical Society in the UK, and she also works for Phastar, a consultancy which specialises in analysing clinical trials. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Charlotte McDonald
Tim Harford explores what we know about mortality rates in the current pandemic. We discuss the differences between the risks to different age groups, and why that has an effect on a country’s Covid 19 fatality rate. We speak to Dr Hannah Ritchie from the University of Oxford and Dr Daniel Howdon of the University of Leeds in the UK.
A headline in a British tabloid newspaper claimed that ‘Staggering 86% who tested Covid positive in lockdown had NONE of the official symptoms’ but what does this mean and is it true?
Tim Harford hears about the sheer volume of false claims made during the campaign. President Trump is well known for making wild statements, but has his behaviour changed? And what about Joe Biden? So much attention is concentrated on Trump’s claims, how does the Democratic candidate fare? Glenn Kessler at the Washington Post and Katherine J Wu at the New York Times tell us about fact-checking during the run up to the election.
Paul Milgrom and his former tutor Robert Wilson worked together for years developing ways to run complicated auctions for large resources. This month the two Stanford University professors were awarded the Nobel memorial prize in economics for their work. The auction formats they designed facilitated the sale of goods and services that are difficult to sell in a conventional way, such as radio frequencies.
Tim Harford speaks to Jacob Goldstein about the unholy marriage of mathematicians, gamblers, and actuaries at the dawn of modern finance.
After nearly 16,000 cases disappeared off coronaviruses spreadsheets, we ask what went wrong. How common are lasting symptoms from Covid-19? If you survey people about the death toll from Covid, they’ll make mistakes. What do those mistakes teach us? Pedants versus poets on the subject of exponential growth. And we dive deep into the unholy marriage of mathematicians, gamblers, and actuaries at the dawn of modern finance.
Case counts in perspective, a suspect stat from the US, and life lessons from insects.
A scary government graph this week showed what would happen if coronavirus cases doubled every seven days. But is that what’s happening? There’s much confusion about how many Covid test results are false positives - we explain all. Plus, do coffee and pregnancy mix? And the Queen, Mao, and Gandhi go head to head: who is on the most stamps and coins?
Tim Harford speaks to Israeli researcher, Tomer Hertz, about how the mathematical magic of pool testing could help countries to ramp up their Covid-19 testing capacity.
Amid reports of problems with coronavirus testing across the UK, we interrogate the numbers on laboratory capacity. Does the government’s Operation Moonshot plan for mass testing make statistical sense? Has the UK been taking more refugees from outside the European Union than any EU country? We explore the connection between socio-economic status and Covid deaths. And we do the maths on a mascara brand’s bold claim about emboldening your eyelashes.
A jump in the number of UK Covid-19 cases reported by the government has led to fears coronavirus is now spreading quickly again. What do the numbers tell us about how worried we should be? Plus a guide to balancing life’s risks in the time of coronavirus, the government’s targets on test and trace, and a suspicious statistic about the speed of jelly-fish.
As children return to school in England and Wales, we hear about what we know and what we don’t when it comes to Covid-19 risks in school settings. What do the numbers tell us about how well test and trace is working? Will reopening universities really kill 50,000 people? Are the UK’s figures on economic growth as bad as they look? And is maths real? When someone goes viral asking maths questions on social media, More or Less finds answers.
Donald Trump says allowing the emergency use of blood plasma therapy for coronavirus patients will save “countless lives” and is “proven to reduce mortality by 35%”. We look at the evidence. Amid talk of coronavirus being back on the rise in the UK, what does the data show? Could screening for breast cancer from the age of 40 save lives? And can it really be true than one in five women in 18th century London made a living selling sex?
We unpick the A-level algoshambles, discover why 1.3 million Covid tests disappeared from the government's statistics last week, and for reasons that may become clear, we examine the chance of being hit by a bus. Plus, what does poker teach us about the role of randomness in our lives?
Autocratic leader Alexander Lukashenko claims to have won a landslide in the country’s presidential elections. But how can we know what really happened? Tim Harford delves into the numbers behind the widely-questioned election result, with Dr Brian Klaas and political analyst Artyom Shraibman.
Covid-19 cases are rising in the UK - is it a sign of a second wave of the virus? We’re picking apart the data and asking how concerned we should be both now and as autumn approaches. Scotland is undercounting Covid deaths, England is overcounting them: we’ll ask why and whether the problems will be fixed.
Celebrity chef Jamie Oliver claims over a quarter of all the fruit and veg kids eat is in the form of pizza, can this be true? Plus, as some people are blaming obesity for the severity of the coronavirus outbreak in the UK, we’ll find out how big a difference it really makes.
One More or Less listener has heard that if all the ice in Antarctica melted, global sea levels would rise by 70 metres. But it would take 361 billion tonnes of ice to raise the world's sea levels by just 1 millimetre.
So how much ice is in Antarctica? And in the coming years, what impact might temperature changes have on whether it remains frozen?
(Gentoo penguins on top of an iceberg at King George Island, Antarctica January 2020. Credit: Alessandro Dahan/ Getty Images)
Do we have enough data to know what’s happening on the continent? We talk to Dr Justin Maeda from the Africa Centre for Disease Control and Ghanaian public health researcher Nana Kofi Quakyi about tracking Africa’s outbreak. Producer: Jo Casserly Picture: Volunteers wait to feed local people during the weekly feeding scheme at the Heritage Baptist Church in Melville on the 118 day of lockdown due to the Covid-19 Coronavirus, Johannesburg, South Africa, 2020. Credit: EPA/KIM LUDBROOK
Tim Harford speaks to Steven Johnson about William Farr and the birth of epidemiology in the 1800s.
Tim Harford talks to statistician Ola Rosling about his research into misconceptions about Covid-19. And an update on the epidemic in the US.
Unlike its Nordic neighbours, Sweden never imposed a lockdown to stem the spread of coronavirus. Tim Harford speaks to statistician Ola Rosling to find out what the results have been.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Jo Casserly
Picture: A woman wearing a face mask stands at a Stockholm bus stop where a sign reminds passengers to maintain a minimum social distance. Sweden 25 June 2020. Credit: EPA/ Stina Stjernkvist
Are cases really rising in the US or are they just testing more? Tim digs into the data.
The UK has suffered one of the worst outbreaks of coronavirus anywhere in the world. We’ve been tracking and analysing the numbers for the last 14 weeks, and in the last programme of this More or Less series, we look back through the events of March 2020 to ask why things went so wrong - was it bad decision-making, bad advice, or bad luck?
The steroid Dexamethasone has been hailed a “major breakthrough” in the treatment of Covid-19. But what does the data say? Plus, why haven’t mass protests led to a second wave?
As lockdown eases, why hasn't there been a spike in infections? We get a first look at the evidence for the much-trumpeted Covid-19 treatment, Dexamethasone. Stephanie Flanders tells us what’s happening to the UK economy. Keir Starmer says child poverty is up; Boris Johnson says it’s down, who's right? Plus which children are getting a solid home-school experience, and who is missing out?
Some countries are requiring new arrivals to self-isolate, a policy designed to stop infection spreading from areas of high prevalence to low prevalence. Tim Harford and Ruth Alexander find out which countries have the highest rate of Covid-19 infection. Plus, is it really true that the coronavirus mostly kills people who would die soon anyway?
The UK has introduced new rules requiring all people arriving in the country to self-isolate for 14 days. But given the severity of the UK’s outbreak can there be many places more infectious? Is it true that Covid-19 mostly kills people who would die soon anyway? The first figures are out showing how England’s Test and Trace programme is performing, but they contain a mystery we’re keen to resolve. And we play with some mathematical puzzles, courtesy of statistician Jen Rogers.
At the start of March the government's Chief Scientific Adviser Sir Patrick Vallance said that the UK’s coronavirus outbreak was four weeks behind the epidemic in Italy. This ability to watch other countries deal with the disease ahead of us potentially influenced the decisions we made about which actions to take and when, including lockdown. So was he right?
What difference does a metre make? The World Health Organisation recommends that people keep at least 1 metre apart from each other to stop the spread of Covid-19, but different countries have adopted different standards.
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends staying six feet apart - that’s just short of 2 metres; in the UK, the rule is 2 metres. But all this has a big impact on the way businesses and societies get back to work. Tim Harford investigates the economic costs and conundrums of keeping our distance in a post-lockdown world.
How can we avoid infection spreading again, while getting on with life?
As lockdowns begin to lift the government is relying on testing and contact tracing programmes to prevent a second wave of Covid-19 infections. But how accurate are the swab tests used to diagnose the disease? The UK Statistics Authority has criticised the government for the way it reports testing figures, saying it’s not surprising that these numbers “are so widely criticised and often mistrusted.” We take a look at how the government achieved its target of developing a daily testing capacity of 200,000 by the end of May. Can we really have only 60 harvests left in the world? Plus, the very pleasant Hugh Fearnley Whittingstall has a pleasant pheasant question for us.
More than 35,000 people in the UK have now officially died from Covid-19, but what does the data show about whether this wave of the epidemic is waning? We ask who respects lockdown, who breaks it, and why?
Our listeners are astounded by how many people allegedly flew into the UK in the first three months of the year - we’re on the story. We look at the performance of the Scottish health system on testing. And some pub-quiz joy involving a pencil.
A listener asks if there can really only be 60 harvests left in Earth's soil. Are we heading for an agricultural Armageddon? Plus we meet the parrots who are the first animals, outside humans and great apes, to be shown to understand probability.
(image: Kea parrots in New Zealand)
Risk expert David Spiegelhalter discusses whether re-opening some schools could be dangerous for children or their teachers. We ask what’s behind Germany’s success in containing the number of deaths from Covid-19. Many governments across the world are borrowing huge sums to prop up their economies during this difficult time, but with everyone in the same boat who are they borrowing from? Plus we revisit the UK’s testing figures yet again and meet some statistically savvy parrots.
As lockdowns start to lift, many countries are relying on social distancing to continue to slow the spread of coronavirus. The UK says we should stay 2 metres apart, the World Health Organisation recommends 1 metre, Canada six feet. So where do these different measurements come from? Plus, governments around the world are trying to prop up their economies by borrowing money. But with everyone in the same situation, where are they borrrowing from?
R is one of the most important numbers of the pandemic. But what is it? And how is it estimated? We return to the topic of testing and ask again whether the governments numbers add up. As the government encourages those who can’t work at home to return to their workplaces - we’re relying on social distancing to continue to slow the spread of the virus. But where does the rule that people should stay 2 metres apart come from? And is Vitamin D an under-appreciated weapon in the fight against Covid-19?
The question of just how dangerous Covid-19 really is, is absolutely crucial. If a large number of those who are infected go on to die, there could be dreadful consequences if we relaxed the lockdowns that have been imposed across much of the world. If the number is smaller, for many countries the worst might already be behind us.
But the frustrating thing is: we’re still not sure. So how can we work this crucial number out?
The Health Minister Matt Hancock promised the UK would carry out 100,000 coronavirus tests a day by the end of April. He claims he succeeded. Did he? The question of just how dangerous the new coronavirus really is, is absolutely crucial. If it’s high, there could be dreadful consequences if we relaxed the lockdowns. So why is the fatality rate so difficult to calculate? Is it true that being obese makes Covid-19 ten times more dangerous? And whatis injuring more kids in lockdown, trampolines or Joe Wicks’ exercises?
With much of the world’s population staying indoors, there are fewer cars on the roads, planes in the skies and workplaces and factories open. Will this have an impact on climate change?
Plus as the streets become quieter, is it just us, or have the birds begun to sing much more loudly?
We continue our mission to use numbers to make sense of the world - pandemic or no pandemic. Are doctors from ethnic minority backgrounds disproportionately affected by Covid-19? Was the lockdown the decisive change which caused daily deaths in the UK to start to decrease? With much of the world’s population staying indoors, we ask what impact this might have on climate change and after weeks of staring out of the window at gorgeous April sunshine, does cruel fate now doom us to a rain-drenched summer? Plus, crime is down, boasts the home secretary Priti Patel. Should we be impressed?
Many articles in the media compare countries with one another - who’s faring better or worse in the fight against coronavirus? But is this helpful - or, in fact, fair?
Tim Harford and Ruth Alexander discuss the limitations that we come across when we try to compare the numbers of Covid-19 cases and deaths in different countries; population size, density, rates of testing and how connected the country is all play a role.
John Horton Conway died in April this year at the age of 82 from Covid-19 related complications. An influential figure in mathematics, Conway’s ideas inspired generations of students around the world. We remember the man and his work with mathematician Matt Parker and Conway’s biographer Siobhan Roberts.
We compare Covid-19 rates around the world. Headlines say NHS staff are dying in large numbers, how bad is it? And is it just us, or have the birds started singing really loudly?
Scientific models disagree wildly as to what the course of the coronavirus pandemic might be. With epidemiologists at odds, Tim Harford asks if professional predictors, the superforecasters, can offer a different perspective.
(Image: Coronovirus graphic/Getty images)
Do face masks stop you getting coronavirus? You might instinctively think that covering your mouth and nose with cloth must offer protection from Covid-19. And some health authorities around the world say people should make their own masks. But expert opinion is divided. Tim Harford and Ruth Alexander unpick the arguments.
Is the coronavirus related death count misleading because of delays in reporting? Do face masks help prevent the spread of the virus? Was a London park experiencing Glastonbury levels of overcrowding this week? And after reports of condom shortages, we ask whether there’s any evidence that we’re nine months away from a lockdown-induced baby boom. Plus in a break from Covid-19 reporting we ask a Nobel-prize winner how many Earth-like planets there are in existence.
Tim Harford and Ruth Alexander examine the statistics around the world to see if more men are dying as a result of Covid-19, and why different sexes would have different risks. Plus is it true that in the US 40% of hospitalisations were of patients aged between 20 and 50?
This week, we examine criticisms of Imperial College’s epidemiologists. We ask how A-Level and GCSE grades will be allocated, given that the exams have vanished in a puff of social distancing. Adam Kucharski, author of The Rules of Contagion, tells us about the history of epidemiology. We look at the supermarkets: how are their supply chains holding up and how much stockpiling is really going on. And is coronavirus having a different impact on men than on women?
Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter, Chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication, puts the risks of Covid-19 into perspective. He found that the proportion of people who get infected by coronavirus, who then go on to die increases with age, and the trend matches almost exactly how our background mortality risk also goes up. Catching the disease could be like packing a year’s worth of risk into a couple of weeks.
(Mathematician and Risk guru, Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter at the University of Cambridge. Credit: In Pictures Ltd./Corbis via Getty Images)
We’ve dedicated this special episode to the numbers surrounding the Coronavirus pandemic. Statistical national treasure Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter put the risks of Covid-19 into perspective. We ask whether young people are safe from serious illness, or if statistics from hospitalisations in the US show a high proportion of patients are under 50. We try to understand what the ever-tightening restrictions on businesses and movement mean for the UK’s economy, and we take a look at the mystery of coronavirus numbers in Iran.
Presenter: Tim Harford
Last week, while schools and businesses across Europe closed in an attempt to halt the spread of Coronavirus the UK stood alone in a more relaxed approach to the pandemic; letting people choose whether they wanted to go to work, or socially distance themselves. This week, things have changed. Schools are closing for the foreseeable future and exams have been cancelled. The British government says their change of heart was based on the work scientists like Christl Donnelly from Imperial College London and the University of Oxford. So what has Christl found that has caused such concern? (Image: A lollipop lady helps children cross the road in Glasgow. Credit: EPA/Robert Perry)
Does Iran have a lot more covid-19 cases that its figures suggest?
Every winter its the same, someone will tell you to put a hat on to save your body from losing all of its heat. But how much heat do you actually lose from your head? We take you on a journey from arctic conditions to a hot tub in Canada to explain why there might actually be more than one answer... Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Leoni Robertson and Lizzy McNeill
Does watching 30 minutes of Netflix have the same carbon footprint as driving four miles?
Dipping into the archive for stories on the art of prediction and wood burner pollution
Artificial Intelligence – or AI for short – is often depicted in films in the shape of helpful droids, all-knowing computers or even malevolent ‘death bots’. In real life, we’re making leaps and bounds in this technology’s capabilities with satnavs, and voice assistants like Alexa and Siri making frequent appearances in our daily lives. So, should we look forward to a future of AI best friends or fear the technology becoming too intelligent. Tim Harford talks to Janelle Shane, author of the book ‘You Look Like a Thing and I Love you’ about her experiments with AI and why the technology is really more akin to an earthworm than a high-functioning ‘death bot’.
A lot has changed since our last episode covering the numbers behind the coronavirus - for a start it now has a name, Covid-19. This week news has broken that deaths are 20 per cent higher than thought, and the number of cases has increased by a third. Tim Harford talks to Dr Nathalie MacDermott, a clinical lecturer at King’s College London about what we know – and what we still don’t.
Covid-19 stats, spreading jam far and wide, cooking with AI, and James Wong on vegetables
We all know that you should never smile at a crocodile, but rumour has it that alligators are great perambulators – at least that’s what a booklet about Florida’s wildlife claimed. Tim Harford speaks to John Hutchinson, Professor of evolutionary bio-mechanics to see whether he could outrun one of these reportedly rapid retiles. Also – our editor thinks he could outrun a hippo, is he right? (…probably not).
Costing counter-terrorism, interrogating tomatoes, the UK's reading age, politics and GDP
The WHO have declared a ‘Global Health Emergency’ as health officials are urgently trying to contain the spread of a new coronavirus in China and beyond; but not all the information you read is correct. We fact-check a particularly hyperbolic claim about its spread that’s been doing the rounds on social media.
Fact checking claims about coronavirus and whether more guns equal fewer homicides.
Anxiety around sleep is widespread. Many of us feel we don’t get enough. An army of experts has sprung up to help, and this week we test some of the claims from one of the most prominent among them: Professor Matthew Walker. He plays ball and answers some of the criticisms of his bestselling book Why We Sleep.
The list of ways campaigners say we need to change our behaviour in response to climate change seems to grow every week. Now, streaming video is in the frame. We test the claim that watching 30 minutes of Netflix has the same carbon footprint as driving four miles. We hear scepticism about a report that sepsis is responsible for one in five deaths worldwide. Author Bill Bryson stops by with a question about guns – and gets quizzed about a number in his new book. And, how much sleep do we really need? Find out if we need more or less.
The fugitive former Nissan boss, Carlos Ghosn, has raised questions about justice in Japan. The government in Tokyo has defended its system, where 99% of prosecutions lead to conviction. Prof Colin Jones, from Doshisha Law School in Kyoto, explains what's behind this seemingly shocking statistic. And a listener asks if it’s true Canada’s is roughly the same. Toronto lawyer Kim Schofield sets them straight.
Is it possible to calculate the cost of Brexit? Gemma Tetlow from the Institute for Government helps us weigh the arguments. How much does luck play into Liverpool FC's amazing season? And, crucially, how fast is an alligator?
Have a billion animals died in Australia’s fires? And which ones are likely to survive?
Tim Harford on animal deaths in Australia's fires, how many Labour voters went Conservative and are UK carbon emissions really down 40%. Plus: have we really entered a new decade?
How many women in China give birth in hospitals, and whether it was true that 50% of births there are delivered by caesarean section. Oh, and we also mention guts and bacteria…
Sharks kill 12 humans a year but humans kill 11,417 sharks an hour. That’s the statistic used in a Facebook meme that’s doing the rounds. Is it true?
We talk about the age of some of the frontrunners in the Democrat nomination race and President Donald Trump and the health risks they face.
Also, More or Less listeners were surprised by a claim they read on the BBC website recently: “Pets are estimated to be consuming up to 20 percent of all meat globally.” So we – of course – investigated and will explain all.
We explore the maths secrets of The Simpsons on their 30th anniversary.
As bushfires rage in Australia, the plight of the koala made front-page news around the world. There were warnings that fires wiped out 80% of the marsupial's habitat and that koalas are facing extinction.
We check the claims with the help of National Geographic's Natasha Daly and Dr Christine Hosking of the University of Queensland.
(A Koala receives treatment at the Koala Hospital in Port Macquarie after its rescue from a bushfire. Credit: Safeed Khan/Getty Images)
Labour's spending plans, Conservatives claims on homelessness, the SNP's education record
The UK General Election is fast approaching, top of the agenda are the political parties green ambitions and one particular initiative is garnering a lot of attention, tree planting. The Labour Party has the most ambitious target – a whopping 2 billion trees planted by 2040. How much land would this take, how does it stack up against other party pledges and what difference will it make?
Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Lizzy McNeill
50,000 nurses? 40 new hospitals? Big corporate tax rises? Childcare promises? Election pledges might sound good, but do they stand up to scrutiny? In the run up to the General Election on 12th December, Tim Harford takes his scalpel of truth to the inflamed appendix of misinformation.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Neal Razzell
Have these saucy fruits become less healthy over time?
A listener wrote in asking which is the busiest shipping lane in the world. Ruth Alexander tries to find out with sea traffic analyst and former captain, Amrit Singh and Jean Tournadre, a researcher that uses satellite date to ships.
Producer: Darin Graham Editor: Richard Vadon
Image: Freighter ships in Thessaloniki, Greece Credit: Getty Images
Evo Morales, Bolivia’s longest-serving leader and first indigenous president, stepped down last week amid weeks of protests sparked by a dispute over a recent presidential election in the country. His opponents say the election was rigged but the embattled former president said it was a cunning coup. We take a closer look at the election results and ask if statistics can tell whether it was fair or fraudulent.
Dr Calla Hummel of the University of Miami and Professor Romulo Chumacero of the University of Chile join Ruth Alexander to discuss.
Two statistics about reducing your risk of an early death made headlines around the world recently. The first seems to be a great reason to add a four-legged friend to your life. It suggests that owning a dog is tied to lowering your chance of dying early by nearly a quarter.
The second statistic claims that even a minimal amount of running is linked to reducing your risk of premature death by up to 30%. Ruth Alexander finds out what’s behind these numbers and we hear from epidemiologist, Gideon Meyerowitz-Katz.
Producer: Darin Graham
In the United States, some police jurisdictions didn’t send off DNA evidence from people who were raped for testing in a crime lab and for uploading into a national criminal database. Instead, the sets of evidence, known as rape kits, were sat on shelves and in warehouses.
It’s estimated that hundreds of thousands need processing. In this edition, Ruth Alexander explores how some jurisdictions are testing the kits now and using the data to catch criminals.
Producer: Darin Graham Presenter: Ruth Alexander
(Untested sexual assault kits on warehouse shelves. Image: courtesy Joyful Heart Foundation)
Social worker and economist Edith Abbott and her contribution to crime statistics.
Discussing Esther Duflo, Abhijit Banerjee and Michael Kremer’s economics Nobel Prize.
We explore the numbers behind the new minimum wage announcements, whether drinking is going up or down in Scotland, the truth about squeezing people onto the Isle of Wight and how long one identical twin lives after the other twin dies. You’ll want to hear our special extra episode.
Are the shocking statistics true? and how do you count people who don't wish to be found?
Dissecting the government’s hospitals announcement and President Trump’s Ukraine claims.
Were a third of those that fought for Britain in WW1 black or Asian?
Has Austerity caused 120 thousand deaths in the UK and does God hate men?
Using statistics to compare world records in athletics and swimming.
Health risks for Presidential hopefuls, falling inflation, shark deaths and salary claims
Are eight people a day murdered in Cape Town and is that number unusually high?
Are black women five times more likely to die in childbirth? Plus making pop music.
Has it increased significantly since President Bolsonaro took office in January?
Challenging the idea of six billion deaths due to climate change; plus what pets eat.
Are they really 85 percent worse than last year?
Are forest fires in Brazil the worst in recent times? What is the state pension worth?
Were millions of trees planted in just one day in Ethiopia?
Was your A Level grade correct? Plus were 350m trees planted in one day in Ethiopia?
Re-inserting a caveat and discussing a really cool numbers trick.
Do immigrants commit more crime than native-born Americans in the United States?
With misinformation so easy to spread, how can it be stopped or challenged?
Taking a statistical look at what expectant mothers should avoid.
How medical testing on just men causes problems.
We look at politicians’ claims that sanctions are to blame for Zimbabwe’s difficulties.
On this week’s More or Less, Ruth Alexander looks at the numbers involved with the two world cups that are going on at the moment.
Are more men than women watching the Women’s World Cup and how accurate is the Cricket World Cup rule of thumb that suggests if you double the score after 30 overs you get a good estimate of the final innings total?
Producer: Richard Vadon
Image: Cricket World Cup Trophy 2019 Credit: Getty Images/ Gareth Copley-IDI
We questioned the death count of the Chernobyl nuclear disaster in last week’s More or Less podcast. In the end, Professor Jim Smith of Portsmouth University came up with an estimate of 15,000 deaths.
But we wondered how deadly nuclear power is overall when compared to other energy sources? Dr Hannah Ritchie of the University of Oxford joins Charlotte McDonald to explore.
Image:Chernobyl nuclear plant, October 1st 1986 Credit: Getty Images
The recent TV miniseries ‘Chernobyl’ has stirred up debate online about the accuracy of its portrayal of the explosion at a nuclear power plant in the former Soviet state of Ukraine. We fact-check the programme and try and explain why it so hard to say how many people will die because of the Chernobyl disaster.
Image: Chernobyl nuclear power plant a few weeks after the disaster. Credit: Getty Images
How one woman used statistics to help cope with cancer.
The hidden influences that a make a big difference to the way the world works.
Measuring happiness, university access in Scotland, plus will one in two get cancer?
Does Mount Etna produce more carbon emissions than humans? We check the numbers.
What does it mean to say that the UK is the fifth largest economy in the world?
How collecting data about the dead led the famous nurse to promote better sanitation.
The stats behind making a successful song, plus misunderstanding Victorian court records.
Data visualisation is all the rage, but where does that leave the old-fashioned values of audio? Some data visualisation experts are starting to explore the benefits of turning pictures into sound. Financial Times journalist Alan Smith plays his musical interpretation of a chart depicting the yield-curve of American bonds.
Image: Human heart attack, illustration Credit: Science Photo Library
Are deaths from heart disease on the rise?
This week the British Heart Foundation had us all stopping mid-biscuit with the news that the number of under 75s dying from cardiovascular disease is going up for the first time in half a century. It sounds like bad news – but is it?
Does Huawei contribute £1.7billion to the UK economy?
People were sceptical that the Chinese telecom company could contribute such a large amount to the UK economy. We take a deeper look at the number and discuss whether it is reasonable to include such a broad range of activities connected to the company to reach that figure.
Deaths from organised crime
The National Crime Agency (NCA) said this week that organised crime kills more people in the UK than terrorism, war and natural disasters combined. But what does the evidence say? The NCA also said that there are 181,000 offenders in the UK fueling serious and organised crime. That’s more than twice the strength of the British Army. We try to find out where those figures came from.
The absence of women’s lives in data
Do government and economic statistics capture the lives of women fairly? If not, does it matter? How could things be changed? Tim Harford speaks to Caroline Criado-Perez about her new book ‘Invisible Women: Exposing Data Bias in a World Designed for Men.’
Image: Human heart attack, illustration Credit: Science Photo Library
We revisit some classic topics from past years. We hear which statistics about sex you should trust, and which are less robust. Do men think about sex every seven seconds? Plus, did the arrival of royal baby Princess Charlotte really contribute to the British economy?
Sex Recession This week it was reported that British people are having less sex than they used to. Similar statistics are cropping up elsewhere in the world too. But one US stat seemed particularly stark: the number of young men having no sex at all in the past year has tripled in a decade. But is it true?
No coal power for a week There were many reports in the newspapers this week saying the UK has set a new record for the number of consecutive days generating energy without burning any coal. So where is our electricity coming from?
Missing people Some listeners got in touch to say they were surprised to hear that a person is reported missing in the UK every 90 seconds. Dr Karen Shalev Greene of the Centre for the Study of Missing Persons joins us to explore the numbers.
In Mice One scientist is correcting headlines on Twitter by adding one key two-word caveat – the fact that the research cited has only been carried out "in mice". We ask him why he’s doing it.
*Spoiler-free for Avengers: Endgame* At the end of Avengers: Infinity War film the villain, Thanos, snapped his fingers in the magical infinity gauntlet and disintegrated half of all life across the universe. The Avengers want to reverse the snap but would it better for mankind to live in a world with a population of less than 4 billion? Tim Harford investigates the economics of Thanos with anthropologist Professor Sharon DeWitte and fictionomics blogger Zachary Feinstein PHD.
Image: The Avengers Endgame film poster Credit: ©Marvel Studios 2019
Nurse suicide rates
There were some worrying figures in the news this week about the number of nurses in England and Wales who died by suicide over the last seven years. We try to work out what the numbers are really telling us.
Are 27 million birds killed a year by cats?
Newspapers reported this week that 27 million birds are killed by cats each year. We find out how this number - which might not really be "news" - was calculated.
How rare are house shares?
A listener got in touch to say she was surprised to read that only 3% of people aged 18 to 34 live in a house share with other people. She feels it must be too low – but is she living in a London house-sharing bubble? We find out.
Proving that x% of y = y% of x
Why is it that 4% of 75 is the same as 75% of 4? Professor Jennifer Rogers from the University of Oxford joins Tim in the studio to explore a mind-blowing maths ‘trick’.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Charlotte McDonald, Darin Graham and Beth Sagar-Fenton
Bernie Sanders, a Senator in the United States and one of the front-runners in the campaign to be the Democratic presidential candidate, said on Twitter that it costs $12,000 to have a baby in his country. He compared that figure to Finland, where he said it costs $60. In this edition of More or Less, Tim Harford looks at whether Sanders has got his figures right. With Carol Sakala of US organisation Childbirth Connection and Mika Gissler of the National Institute for Health and Welfare, Finland.
Producer: Darin Graham Presenters: Tim Harford and Charlotte McDonald
Image: A newborn baby's hand. Credit:Getty Images/TongRo Images Inc
Was it a surprise that Easter Monday was so hot?
A heatwave struck the UK over Easter – and in fact Easter Monday was declared the hottest on record in the UK. But listeners asked - is it that surprising that it was the warmest when the date fell so late in April? We crunch the numbers supplied by the Met Office.
Insectageddon
Insects live all around us and if a recent scientific review is anything to go by, then they are on the path to extinction. The analysis found that more than 40% of insect species are decreasing and that a decline rate of 2.5% a year suggests they could disappear in 100 years. And as some headlines in February warned of the catastrophic collapse of nature, some More or Less listeners questioned the findings. Is insect life really in trouble?
Collecting income tax from the 1%
Recently Lord Sugar said in a Tweet “The fact is if you taxed everyone earning over £150k at a rate of 70% it would not raise enough to pay for 5% of the NHS.” Is that true? Helen Miller, Deputy Director and head of tax at the Institute for Fiscal Studies looks at how much such a policy might raise from the 1% of tax payers who earn over £150,000.
Where is Scotland’s highest village?
A battle is brewing in the Southern Scottish uplands between two rival villages. How can statistics help determine which village should take the crown? Wanlockhead and Leadhills both lay claim to the title of Scotland’s highest village but there can only be one winner. More or Less attempts to settle the age old dispute once and for all.
Image: A man and woman sitting on deckchairs on the beach Credit: Getty Images
The Olympic Games and the football World Cup, two of the biggest events in the world which are each hosted every four years, are big business. And it costs a lot of money to host them, and a lot of the money comes from public funds. In this week’s edition of More or Less, we’ll be finding out – after all the sporting activities are over – how realistic were those economic predictions? Producer: Darin Graham Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Editor: Richard Vadon Picture Credit: Fang Guangming/Southern Metropolis Daily/VCG
A battle is brewing in the Southern Scottish uplands between two rival villages. How can statistics help determine which village should take the crown? Wanlockhead and Leadhills both lay claim to the title of Scotland’s highest village but there can only be one winner. More or Less attempts to settle the age old dispute once and for all.
Presenter: Phoebe Keane
Picture: A village in the Southern Scottish uplands. Credit: Jan Halfpenny
A recent scientific review claims the weed killer glyphosate raises the risk of developing the cancer non-Hodgkin lymphoma by 41 percent. But deciding what causes cancer can be complicated and there are lots of people and organisations on different sides arguing for against this. So in this edition of More or Less, we look at the disagreements and how the authors of the review came up with the results. With cancer epidemiologist Dr Geoffrey Kabat, Toxicologist Dr Luoping Zhang and statistician Sir David Spiegelhalter. Producer: Darin Graham Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Editor: Richard Vadon Picture: Tractor spraying a field of wheat Credit: Getty Images
Who is the greatest chess player in history? And what does the answer have to do with a story of a chess cheating school from Texas? In this week’s More or Less, the BBC’s numbers programme, David Edmonds finds out what a statistical analysis of chess moves can teach us about this ancient board game.
Presenter: David Edmonds Producer: Darin Graham
Image: A Chess Board Credit: Getty Images
Mansa Musa, the 14th century Mali king, has nothing on Jeff Bezos - read one recent news report. Musa set off on a pilgrimage to Saudi Arabia in the 1300s and it’s said he left with a caravan of 60,000 people. Among them were soldiers, entertainers, merchants and slaves. A train of camels followed, each carrying gold. In recent reports, he has been described as the richest person that ever lived. He has been compared to some of the wealthiest people alive today. But how can we know the value of the ‘golden king’s’ wealth and can we compare a monarch to the likes of Amazon founder Bezos? In this edition, historian Dr Emmanuel Ababio Ofosu-Mensah of the University of Ghana in Accra explains who Mansa Musa was and Kerry Dolan of Forbes talks to us about rich lists.
Producer: Darin Graham Editor: Richard Vadon
(Image: Painting of Mansa Musa, Credit: Getty Images)
Does the sudden loss of an hour of sleep raise the risk of having a heart attack?
Are women really less likely than men to be hired for jobs in tech just because of their sex? A study claims that sexism in the recruitment process is holding women back from entering the tech sector. But the study is not all it seems. There are much better statistics that can help explain why fewer women than men work in tech in the USA and lessons to be learned from India, where there is a much smaller gender gap in the tech sector.
Presenter: Phoebe Keane
Photo: An engineer looking at information on a screen interface Credit: Metamorworks / Getty Images
Insects live all around us and if a recent scientific review is anything to go by, then they are on the path to extinction. The analysis found that more than 40 percent of insect species are decreasing and that a decline rate of 2.5 percent a year suggests they could disappear in one hundred years. And as some headlines in February warned of the catastrophic collapse of nature, some More or Less listeners questioned the findings. Is insect life really in trouble?
Presenter: Ruth Alexander Producer: Darin Graham
(Image: Hairy hawker dragonfly. Credit: Science Photo Library)
Die, sell on a sunny day, place your work a third of the way through the auction….There are some surprising factors that can affect the price of an art work. Here are six top tips on how to get the best price for your art or, for art buyers, how to make a big return on your investment.
Presenter: Dave Edmonds Producer: Darin Graham Editor: Richard Vadon
Picture Credit: BBC
Tim Harford talks to Matt Parker on how simple maths mistakes can cause big problems.
Tim Harford on climate change, Victorian diseases, maths mistakes and alcohol consumption
Who can better forecast the weather – meteorologists or a rodent? What percentage of the English public are related to King Edward the III, and is malnutrition really on the rise in the UK? Sit back, relax and enjoy some of the good stuff from the More or Less archives.
Tim Harford finds untrue a recent report that there is a 'suicidal generation' of teens.
A listener doubts her popularity on the dating app Tinder. We investigate the numbers.
Tim Harford on Holocaust deniers; food prices in Venezuela, and dating app statistics
Tim Harford asks which times of the year are riskiest for suicide.
Tim Harford on domestic violence, employment numbers, and the chance of a white Easter.
Which planet is closest to Earth?
Tim Harford asks whether 1.7% of people are intersex, and examines false claims about MPs
We look at the numbers behind body temperature – what is normal?
Tim Harford on sugar, train fares, children's outdoors play and Earth's closest neighbour
Helena Merriman with numbers about water shortage, plastic recycling and American jobs.
The numbers that made 2018.
What to look out for on Christmas Eve.
Are mega-dams really sustainable?
Are women more likely to die from a heart attack than men?
Xavier Zapata examines what the data tells us about the deadly impact of war on civilians
Updating the kilogram.
How likely are assassination attempts on heads of state to succeed?
What proportion of a population needs to be vaccinated to stop a disease spreading?
In foreign aid terms what’s the best way of measuring how generous a country is?
The economists tackling climate change and growth.
New figures reveal that same-sex divorce rates are much higher among women than among men. The pattern is the same in Belgium, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and the UK. Everywhere where there are statistics on same-sex divorce it is the same sex doing the bulk of the divorcing. Tim Harford discusses why this may be with Marina Ashdade, economist at Canada’s Vancouver School of Economics and author of Dirty Money, a book which applies economic ideas to the study of sex and love. Producer: Ruth Alexander (Photo: Same-sex wedding cake toppers. Credit: Lucas Schifres/Getty Images)
New figures reveal that same-sex divorce rates are much higher among women than among men. The pattern is the same in Belgium, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and the UK. Everywhere where there are statistics on same-sex divorce it is the same sex doing the bulk of the divorcing. Tim Harford discusses why this may be with Marina Ashdade, economist at Canada’s Vancouver School of Economics and author of “Dirty Money”, a book which applies economic ideas to the study of sex and love.
Producer: Ruth Alexander
Image: Same-sex wedding cake toppers Credit: Lucas Schifres/Getty Images
This week BBC Radio 4’s All in the Mind programme announced the results of The Loneliness Experiment. It was a large survey conducted by the programme in collaboration with the Wellcome Collection. The largest survey into the issue of loneliness to date, said All in the Mind, while the accompanying BBC press release reported that “The survey results indicate that 16-24 year olds experience loneliness more often and more intensely than any other age group. 40% of respondents aged 16-24 reported feeling lonely often or very often, while only 29% of people aged 65-74 and 27% of people aged over 75 said the same.” In the editors' notes, the press release cautions that “This was a self-selecting sample, so people experiencing loneliness might have been more attracted to take part, inflating reported levels of loneliness.” But much of the reporting by other BBC outlets and the wider media was not so restrained. Tim Harford speaks to Deirdre Toher from the University of the West of England about why the survey's results need careful interpretation.
Listeners have been asking us to explain the schools funding row. When headteachers marched in protest at school spending last week, the Minister for School Standards, Nick Gibb, went on BBC Radio 4's Today programme to say "We are spending record amounts on our school funding. We are the third highest spender on education in the OECD”. BBC Education correspondent Sean Coughlan explains how he discovered that the OECD figure includes university tuition fees paid by students.
Is it true that "Polish Pilots Shot down 60% of German Aircraft on Battle of Britain Day"? Lizzie McNeill fact-checks this claim found on the side of a van.
New figures reveal that same-sex divorce rates are higher among women than among men. Tim Harford discusses why this may be with Marina Ashdade, economist at the Vancouver School of Economics and author of “Dirty Money”, a book about the economics of sex and love.
Plus, what makes a listener loyal? A nine-year debate rages on.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Ruth Alexander
Image: A single fan sits in the stands before a college football game Credit: Photo by Kevin Abele/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Were Spitfire pilots killed after an average of four weeks in the World War Two battle?
Tim Harford on Spitfire pilots, and whether football triggers violence in the home.
How can we calculate excess mortality after a natural disaster?
Tim Harford on child carers, shareholder income, football vs museums and dangerous sports
What is the difference between 96% similarity or sharing 20% of our DNA?
Tim Harford with statistics on suicide, good schools and sexism in tennis. Plus goats
A listener asks whether his Volvo is the safest car on the road?
Tim Harford questions the usefulness of a popular heart age calculator.
Tim Harford talks to Bobby Duffy about why we are often wrong about a lot of basic facts
Tim Harford fact checks EU trade deals with Africa, and whether one drink is one too many
BONUS PODCAST: For the rest of August, in addition to More or Less you’ll get a brand new podcast, Economics with Subtitles. It’s your everyday guide to economics and why you should care. In this edition, Ayeisha and Steve make sense of interest rates. Why did they lead to coffins full of car getting sent to the US Federal Reserve? What factors affect what you have to pay on your loans? And what do your film choices say about why you decide to borrow?
Producers: Simon Maybin & Phoebe Keane Presenters: Ayeisha Thomas-Smith & Steve Bugeja
Computer programmes are being developed to combat fake news.
What would have been the most efficient way to get to Mordor?
BONUS PODCAST: For the rest of August, in addition to More or Less you’ll get a brand new podcast, Economics with Subtitles. It’s your everyday guide to economics and why you should care. In this show, Ayeisha and Steve make sense of inflation. They’ll explain how hyperinflation is affecting how Venezuelans have sex, why you can’t afford a ticket to see your favourite band in concert anymore and why a sale on sofas isn’t always a good thing.
Producers: Simon Maybin & Phoebe Keane Presenters: Ayeisha Thomas-Smith & Steve Bugeja
Are Wildfires in the United States and Southern Europe burning more land than before?
BONUS PODCAST: For the rest of August, in addition to More or Less you’ll get a brand new podcast, Economics with Subtitles. It’s your everyday guide to economics and why you should care. In this show, Ayeisha and Steve explore government debt. Why did an anonymous mother send her bracelet to the government to be turned into a bullet? How are you lending the government money without even realising? And when should you be worried about how much debt the government is in?
Producers: Simon Maybin & Phoebe Keane Presenters: Ayeisha Thomas-Smith & Steve Bugeja
How do you get a hashtag to trend around the world?
BONUS PODCAST: For the rest of August, in addition to More or Less, you’ll get four bonus editions of Economics with Subtitles. It’s a brand new podcast that will bring you an everyday guide to economics and why you should care. In this edition, Ayeisha and Steve look at how we quantify economic success. Should dodgy drug deals be included? What is Steve’s contribution to GDP? And should we ban people who pinch too many of your crisps?
Producers: Simon Maybin & Phoebe Keane Presenters: Ayeisha Thomas-Smith & Steve Bugeja
Does a baked potato contain the equivalent of 19 cubes of sugar?
How big are your testicles and what does that mean?
Having one fewer child could be the biggest thing you do to reduce your carbon footprint
How much better are the pros than the rest of us and how effective is slipstreaming?
The astronomer, Carl Sagan, famously said that there were more stars in our Universe than grains of sand on the Earth’s beaches. But was it actually true? More or Less tries to count the nearly uncountable. Content warning: This episode includes gigantically large numbers. (Photo: The barred spiral galaxy M83. Credit: Nasa).
This week we take a look at some of the statistics which have caught our attention at the World Cup. There has been much debate in both the press and social media about the large distances which Russian football players have run in their first two games. We look at how they compare to other teams and what it might signify. Also –is it just bad luck that Germany has crashed out of the competition?
Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Producer: Richard Vadon
(Picture: Artem Dzyuba of Russia celebrates scoring against Saudi Arabia. Credit: Xin Li/Getty Images)
Ein Bier bitte? Loyal listener David made a new year's resolution to learn German. Three years later, that's about as far as he's got. Keen to have something to aim for, he asked More or Less how many words you really need to know in order to speak a language. Reporter Beth Sagar-Fenton finds out with help from Professor Stuart Webb, and puts Tim through his paces to find out how big his own English vocabulary is. (Image: The World surrounded by Flags. Credit: Shutterstock) Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Beth Sagar-Fenton Producer: Charlotte McDonald, Lizzy McNeill
The World Cup starts this week and the More or Less team is marking the event by looking at the data behind all the World Cups since 1966 (our data shows that this was the best world cup because England won).
We’ll answer all football fans most burning questions; which World Cups have seen the most shots, fouls, dribbles and most importantly goals? Do the statistics back up the reputations of famous players like Pele, Cruyff, Maradona and Paul Gascoigne? And which of them actually committed the most fouls at one World Cup?
Ben Carter talks to Author and Opta Sports football statistician Duncan Alexander about how the ‘beautiful game’ has changed…through numbers.
(Picture: The World Cup, credit: Shutterstock)
From penguins to nematodes, is it possible to count how many animals are born around the world every day?
That’s the question one 10-year-old listener wants answered, and so reporter Kate Lamble sets off for the zoo to find out. Along the way, she discovers that very, very small animals are much more important than very, very big animals when it comes to the sums.
(09.05) Artificial Intelligence or A.I. has been hailed as the answer to an easier life – but will it really make the world a better place, or just reinforce existing prejudices? Tim Harford speaks to author Meredith Broussard about ‘techno-chauvinism’.
(0.24) Infant mortality is on the rise in England and Wales – but is this change down to social issues such as obesity and deprivation, as claimed, or the way doctors count very premature babies?
(9.45) A self-confessed lazy student wrote in to ask how he can minimise exam revision, while still ensuring a high chance of passing – we do the sums.
(15.44) Do a billion birds really die each year by flying into buildings? We explain another zombie statistic which refuses to die.
(18.40) It was reported earlier this year that London’s murder rate was higher than New York City’s – but how do the two cities compare now, and is there any value in these snapshot comparisons?
How do you count the number of people sleeping rough? According to the latest official figures around 4700 people were sleeping in the streets in the autumn of 2017. And that got us thinking. These statistics aren’t just downloaded from some big database in the sky. They need – like any statistic – to be collected and calculated. So how is it done?
Is WH Smith really the worst shop on the High Street? Harry Potter fans want to know how many wizards there are – we try to work it out. Is giving birth at home as safe as giving birth in hospital?
(Photo: Mother and baby. Credit: Shutterstock)
This week we tackle some of our listeners’ questions from Australia: do one in seven businessmen throw out their pants after wearing them once? This is a claim made by an expert talking about clothes waste – but what does it come from? Do horses kill more people than venomous animals? Australia is known for its dangerous wildlife, but how deadly is it for humans? Plus, a politician says lots of Australians have used cannabis – we take a look at the evidence.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Charlotte McDonald and Sachin Croker
(Picture: Male models in underwear follow a businessman. Credit: Getty's Images)
(00.28) Reading the BBC weather app – we explain the numbers on the forecast (06:55) University of Oxford Admissions: how diverse is its intake? (11:37) Voter idea trial at the local elections – counting those who were turned away from the polling station. (15:46) How much tea do Brits drink? We investigate a regularly cited estimate (20:06) Are pensioners richer than people of working age?
Former FBI Director James Comey is very, very tall – over two metres tall, or 6’8” - and many media outlets commented on his height during his recent run-in with President Trump.
But to what extent does being very tall improve your chances of becoming a professional basketball player?
In this week’s programme Tim Harford looks at the likelihood that James Comey – or any very tall person - might make it as a pro in the NBA. He speaks to data scientist Seth Stephens-Davidowitz who has crunched the numbers on height and class to find out who is more likely to make it as a pro baller.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Richard Fenton-Smith
(Picture: Former FBI Director James Comey, Credit: Shutterstock)
(0.22) Are more children from working families in poverty? (6.50) Progress 8 – explaining the new school league tables for England (12.51) Can a garden product really make your grass 6 times greener? (18.03) ‘Data is’ versus ‘data are’ (20.21) Royal Wedding economics
The story goes that Amsterdam in the 1630’s was gripped by a mania for Tulip flowers. But then there was a crash in the market. People ended up bankrupt and threw themselves into canals. This story is still being trotted out when people talk about financial markets, lately as a comparison to buying and selling bitcoin. But how much of what we know of the Tulip craze is fact, and how much is myth? We speak to Anne Goldgar at Kings College London who explains all.
(00:26) The UK abortion statistics gaining attention in Ireland’s referendum debate (03:49) Superforecasting author Phillip Tetlock talks to Tim Harford (09:51) Modern Slavery figures in the UK (17:43) Should you say math or maths?
The great statistician, Hans Rosling, died in February last year. Throughout his life Hans used data to explain how the world was changing – and often improving – and he would challenge people to examine their own preconceptions and ignorance. Before he became ill, Hans had started working on a book about these questions and what they reveal about the mental biases that tend to lead us astray. Tim Harford speaks to his son Ola and daughter in law Anna who worked on the book with him.
(0:32) Breast screening – the Numbers: 450,000 women have accidentally not been invited for breast cancer screening
(07:26) Counting the Windrush Generation: What do we know about those who might be lacking documentation
(11:15) Has Nigel Farage been on Question Time too often? We chart his appearances over 18 years
(16:32) Painting a picture with an audiogram: Data journalist Mona Chalabi talks about her unusual approach to analysing numbers.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Charlotte McDonald Editor: Richard Vadon
The government of Puerto Rico has developed a plan to strip the island’s statistical agency of its independent board as part of a money saving enterprise. But as the Caribbean island recovers from a debt crisis and the devastation of Hurricane Maria which struck last year, many are questioning whether the move could have long reaching implications.
Presenters: Tim Harford and Kate Lamble Producer: Kate Lamble
(Photo: Damage to Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria: The La Perla neighbourhood, San Juan. Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images.)
Does the UK throw away 8.5 billion straws a year? (0’33’’)
Women on FTSE 100 boards (4’35”) We explore whether the proportion of female directors has changed over time, and what it tells us about women in business.
Using personal data for the public good (11’28”) Hetan Shah, the Executive Director of the Royal Statistical Society, talks about storing people’s data.
How many animals are born every day? (15’39”)
Tim Harford talks to economist Dan Ariely about the psychology of money. They discuss how understanding the way we think about our finances can help us to spend more carefully and save more efficiently. Plus Dan explains how to never have an argument over sharing a restaurant bill again.
(Photo: Mannequins in a shop window wearing sale t-shirts. Credit: Sean Gallup/Getty Images)
The World Health Organisation say that 95% of people who live in cities breathe unsafe air. But what do they mean by ‘unsafe’? And how do they calculate the levels or air pollution for every city in the world? Plus Mt Etna in Italy has reportedly moved by 14mm, but who is calculating this? And how do they know the answer with such accuracy? (Photo: People wear masks as smoke billows from a coal fired power plant, Shanxi, China. Credit: Kevin Frayer/Getty Images)
London’s murder rate is on the rise – and for the first time ever it has just overtaken New York’s, according to a number of media outlets. But is it true? And is it appropriate for journalists to compare between the two cities? South Africa’s missing children statistics A viral Facebook post has suggested that one child is kidnapped every thirty seconds in South Africa. We examine the evidence which shows that a child is reported missing every nine hours to the police, and this includes more than just kidnappings.
(Photo: Police officers inspect the scene of a knife attack in London. Credit: Jack Taylor/Getty Images)
Miss Fisher’s Murder Mysteries is one of Australia’s most popular television series and has been broadcast in 172 territories worldwide. Set in 1920’s Melbourne the series’ protagonist, Miss Phryne Fisher, seems to have a lot of dead bodies on her metaphorical plate. So how does the series compare with the real life murder rate at that time? Join the More Or Less team as we step back in time for some statistical sleuthing.
Last week Vladimir Putin won a second consecutive and fourth overall term as the Russian President. Official polling results from the election show he received over 76 percent of the vote, with a total turnout of 67 percent, but there were also widespread allegations of irregularities including inflated turnout figures. More or Less takes a closer look at the election data from Russia to see if these complaints have merit.
Whenever Donald Trump talks about trade he brings up one statistic again and again, the US trade balance. This is the relationship between the goods and services the US imports from other countries and what it exports – if America buys more from a country than that country buys from America there’s a deficit, and Trump claims America has a trade deficit with almost every country in the world.
Is he right?
We unpick whether President Trump is quoting the correct numbers on trade, hear how trade figures can vary widely between countries and ask if it’s the right approach to focus trade deal negotiations on reducing the US deficit.
(Photo: President Donald Trump participates in a meeting with leaders of the steel industry at the White House, Washington, DC. Credit: Win McNamee/Getty Images)
After Sir Roger Bannister ran a mile in under four minutes, did positive thinking propel dozens to do the same?
Are Hollywood films ignoring women? As this is the 90th year of the Academy Awards - we find out how many ‘Best Picture’ winners pass the Bechdel Test. This is a light-hearted way of challenging whether a film meets a low standard of female representation. They have to fulfil three criteria: are there at least two named female characters in the cast? Do those two women speak to each other? And do they have a conversation about something other than a man? In collaboration with the BBC’s 100 Women team, we reveal the answer but also look at what other ways we could be assessing representation in film.
What’s the most successful nation? (0’40”) We look at population, GDP per capita and ski areas of the countries with the most medals.
How do you judge a country’s ‘best’ performance? (3.45”)
What are the chances of dead heat in a race? (6’35”) The two-man bobsleigh event ended in a dead heat with both Canada and Germany achieving a time of three minutes 16.86 seconds.
Is this the coldest winter games? (8’41”)
How to question dubious statistics in just a few short steps.
How many people have UN staff raped? – (0’40’’) It was reported in a number of the newspapers this week that UN staff are responsible for 60,000 rapes in a decade.
The wealth of Mr Darcy – (5’10”) The male love interest of ‘Pride and Prejudice’ is supposed to be fabulously wealthy. Is he?
How many people did Stalin kill? – (10’00”) Why there are so many different figures reported.
Avoid splitting the bill – (18’25”) Credit card roulette is Dan Ariely’s preferred way of ending a meal with friends.
Gender in literature – (22’15”)How are women depicted in books? Author Ben Blatt does an analysis.
Alcohol consumption has fallen sharply according to Russia’s health ministry
Why the biggest ever fall in the Dow wasn't, and how much do women spend on tampons?
A key pledge of the Chinese President Xi Jinping is that China will have eradicated poverty by 2020. It’s an extraordinary claim, but the country does have a good track record in improving the wealth of its citizens; the World Bank says China has contributed more than any other country to global poverty reduction. So how does China measure poverty? And is it possible for them to make sure, over the next few years, that no one falls below their poverty line?
Photo: A woman tends to her niece amid the poor surroundings of her home's kitchen Credit: FREDERIC J. BROWN/AFP/Getty Images
How many transgender people are there in the UK?
The UK produces official statistics about all sorts of things – from economic indicators to demographic data. But it turns out there are no official figures for the number of transgender people in the UK. We explore what we do know, and what is harder to measure.
Do 4% of the population drink nearly a third of the alcohol?
According to recent headlines, just 4% of the population drink nearly a third of the alcohol sold in England. But can so few people really account for so much of the countries bar tab? We find out where the statistic came from.
Bank of England’s Mark Carney says no to RPI
At a hearing of the House of Lords’ economic affairs committee, the Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, said it would be useful to have a single measure of inflation for consumers – and that CPI was a much better measure than RPI, which he said had “no merit”. We find out why with the FT’s Chris Giles.
A statistical take on parkrun
Every weekend over 1.5 million people run 5,000m on Saturday mornings for parkrun which is a free event that takes place all over the UK and indeed across the globe. Each runner is given a bar code, which is scanned at the end of the run and fed into a database showing them what place they came in their race– we take a look at which courses are the fastest, slowest, hardest and easiest.
Testing for a cough correlation between snooker and smoking
A listener emailed us this week to ask whether you can connect the number of coughs during snooker matches to the decline in smoking. We got counting to see if the theory was a trick shot - with help from John Virgo.
Photo: Jimmy White Credit: Photo by Jamie McDonald/Getty Images
The survey question that could affect the accuracy of its results.
The United States are due to run their next nationwide census in 2020, but already critics are warning that underfunding and proposed question about citizenship could affect the accuracy of its results. We look at the real life consequences if groups choose not to complete the 2020 census, and ask whether the recent politically charged debate is unusual in its two hundred year history.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Kate Lamble
Photo: Concerned woman holding a clipboard and a pen Credit: Nicolas McComber/Getty Images
First sexual experience - checking the facts A short film for the Draw A Line campaign has made the claim that one in three girls first sexual experience is rape. This seems shockingly high, but what is the evidence? Is it just for the UK or a global figure? We go back to the reports that were used to source the claim, and find the research has been misinterpreted.
How long can a shark go for without eating? A recent episode of Blue Planet II stated that after a large meal a Sixgill shark might not have to eat for 'up to an entire year'. Tim Harford speaks to Dr David Ebert, a shark expert who has studied the stomach contents of Sixgills over the years. And to Professor Alex Roger, a zoologist who advised the Blue Planet team, to try and find out how accurate the claim is and why the deep sea is still a mystery.
The wonder of Prime Numbers Oxford mathematician Vicky Neale talks about her new book - Closing The Gap - and how mathematicians have striven to understand the patterns behind prime numbers.
Multiple grannies A Swiss mummy has recently been identified as a distant ancestor of Boris Johnson. But some people have been getting tangled up over just how many great-great-great-great-great-great-great grandmothers the Foreign Secretary might have. We tackle an email from one listener - none other than the broadcaster Stephen Fry.
If you ask an economist to explain what is happening in a country’s economy. They rely on economic data points to describe what is happening – they might talk about the unemployment rate, average wages, and the numbers of people in poverty. They pull together the information available for thousands or millions of people to work out trends.
But are we getting the whole picture?
We speak to Rachel Schneider, co-author of the book, ‘The Financial Diaries’. It’s based on a large study in the USA. Over a period of a year from 2012 to 2013, researchers interviewed several families about how they were managing their money to find out the personal stories behind economic data.
Presenter and Producer: Charlotte McDonald
(Photo: A couple looking at their finances. Credit: Wayhome Studio/Shutterstock)
Gender Pay Gap This week the Office for National Statistics has published analysis trying to find out why it is that on average women are paid less than men in specific industries and occupations. We examine their findings, as well as taking a look at the current discussion about equal pay at the BBC.
Alcohol reaction times We take a look at a study that suggests that people's reaction speeds are affected over time by regular drinking. It recommends that official guidelines for the amount of alcohol consumed a week should be lowered. But what does the evidence show?
Bus announcements - when is too many? Transport for London has introduced a new announcement on its buses to warn travellers that the bus is about to move. We discuss the benefit of such messages.
How many words do you need to speak a language? Ein bier bitte? Loyal listener David made a new year's resolution to learn German. Three years later, that's about as far as he's got. Keen to have something to aim for, he asked More or Less how many words you really need to know in order to speak a language. We find out with help from Professor Stuart Webb, and put Tim through his paces to find out how big his own English vocabulary is.
Producer: Charlotte McDonald.
(Photo: Man and woman working on a car production plant. Credit: SEBASTIEN BOZON/AFP/Getty Images)
A forgotten French mathematician is the focus of our programme. He anticipated both Einstein's theories and the application of maths to the stock market. Born in the 1870s, his work was unusual at the time. With the help of Alison Etheridge, Professor of Mathematics at the University of Oxford, we explain how his ideas were rediscovered decades after his death.
(Photo: Pocket watch. Credit: Kanyapak Lim/Shutterstock)
Did missed appointments cost the NHS £1 billion last year? New figures published recently suggest that the financial cost to the NHS for missed appointments was £1 billion last year. But our listeners are curious. How has this figure been worked out? And don’t missed appointments actually ease the pressure on an overcrowded system?
Graduate pay – is it always higher than non-graduates’ pay? It is often claimed that if you go to university and get a degree, you will earn more than those who do not. But is that always true? We take a look to see if there are occasions when having a degree makes little difference or whether the benefit of a degree has changed over time.
How much cocaine is on a bank note? Tim Harford speaks to Richard Sleeman who works for a firm, Mass Spec Analytical, that specialises in working out how much cocaine can be found on bank notes across the country. Do some parts of the country have more cocaine on their notes than others? Is it true that 99% of bank notes in London have cocaine on them?
Is it true that one in five can’t name an author of literature? Last year the Royal Society of Literature made this claim – but what was it based on? It turns out a polling company found that 20 percent questioned failed to name a single author. Should we be surprised? We took a look at the data.
Diet Coke Habit The New York Times claims that Donald Trump drinks ‘a dozen’ Diet Cokes a day. With each can of 330ml containing 42mg of caffeine - what impact, if any, could this have on the President’s health?
Why it isn’t as simple to work out as you think.
Phones, lawn mowers and how Kim Kardashian helped the public understanding of risk.
Measuring the energy used to keep the cryptocurrency secure.
Could the US President’s Diet Coke habit affect his health? and 'contained' wildfires
Headlines claim that eating chocolate can protect you from developing Alzheimer’s disease. The theory is that bioactives within chocolate called flavanols can help reduce the risk of heart attacks, strokes and even make your brain 30 years younger! But isn’t this all a bit too good to be true? The BBC’s Head of Statistics, Robert Cuffe, investigates whether research findings are misrepresented by funders, PR machines and the media. Presenter: Robert Cuffe Producer: Lizzy McNeill
Are some people just very lucky? The maths suggest that is unlikely.
What the Pride and Prejudice character would have earned in today’s money.
The Italians are calling it the apocalypse. Their team has failed to make it to the World Cup for the first time in 60 years. But it is about more than just national pride - there is a financial cost too. Some have suggested that it will cost FIFA $100m. Is this really true? We speak to sports writer Graham Dunbar who has been counting how much money football's world governing body might lose out on. Also we fact check the claim that 45% of Nigerian women marry before their 18th birthday. Presenter: Ruth Alexander Producer: Xavier Zapata
(Image: Alessandro Florenzi of Italy at the end of the FIFA 2018 World Cup Qualifier play-off, November 13, 2017. Credit: Marco Luzzani/Getty Images)
Chris Brown’s latest album is stuffed with so many songs it runs at a sprawling two hours and twenty minutes. It’s only the latest in a string of lengthy album releases that includes artists like Drake, The Weeknd and Lil B. More or Less speaks to Hugh McIntyre, a music journalist who has found out that a numerical change in the way the album charts are measured is tempting artists into making longer albums.
We also talk to Marc Hogan, a senior writer at Pitchfork, about a number that is changing the sound of pop music. You can find more of Marc Hogan's writing on pitchfork.com
Presenter: Jordan Dunbar Producer: Xavier Zapata
(Chris Brown performs onstage at 2017 BET Awards. Credit: Paras Griffin/Getty Images for BET)
Finding out if Nigerian politicians really get paid more than the American President.
Counting the favourite words of well-known authors: Stephen King, Hemingway and others
Did the 2016 US election galvanise young people to become more engaged in politics?
The behavioural economist who has inspired governments around the world.
Naming the monster numbers - how the names of digital storage files evolved.
Do the largest ships emit as much pollution as all the cars in the world?
Is Uber safe? The post Brexit dual nationality surge and measuring partner abuse.
How much of a problem is falling sperm count?
Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson is accused of mis-using official statistics.
What’s the best way to measure a hurricane?
Has the number of natural disasters really quadrupled in the last forty years?
Is the UK the only country with more horses than tanks in its army?
Will we need more power stations? Plus, are children in Manchester ready for school?
Experts are saying that Houston just suffered a one in 500 year storm but what does that mean?
The difficulties of finding the true number of people who died in the fire.
Figuring out the best strategy as a wannabe team manager.
Are boys getting more top A Level grades than girls? Plus why are dress sizes so weird?
During a recent press conference President Trump said: “I’ve created over a million jobs since I’m president. The country is booming. The stock market is setting records. We’ve got the highest employment numbers we have ever had I the history of our country.” This is not the first time the American President has taken credit for a booming economy. But is that fair? We take a look at the numbers.
President Trump says transgender individuals cannot serve, but how many do already?
On Tuesday Kenyans go to the polls to elect members of parliament and the next president. A report in Quartz Africa has estimated that the cost of putting on the election by the Government works out at around $25 per head – $480 million in total. It also estimated that it cost Rwanda $1 a head, and Uganda $4 a head to lay on elections. Recently an expert on this programme estimated that the UK General election cost about $4 a head. We explore why there is such a difference in the amounts spent.
Exploring if an influx of teenage boys claiming asylum skewed the population’s sex ratio
Celebrating the only woman to win the biggest prize in mathematics.
Using statistics to prove or disprove the wisdom of tennis is the theme this week. In this digital age we are used to information at our fingertips. This week More or Less finds out how every rally, every shot at this tennis championship is counted and makes its way to our phones, desktops and TV screens. And once you have this information – what can you do with it? Is it useful for players and coaches? Traditionally, players will take a risk on their first chance to serve, and hit the ball as fast as they can, knowing that they have a second chance. On their second attempt, players tend to serve more slowly and carefully to make sure it goes in. But could the statistics show they might as well take a risk again?
(Venus Williams plays a backhand during the Ladies Singles first round match against Elise Mertens at Wimbledon. Credit: Getty Images)
Are top basketball players underpaid?
The American basketballer Stephen Curry has just signed the biggest contract in NBA history. The new deal will pay him $200 million over 5 years but amazingly, according to fellow superstar player Lebron James, he’s probably being underpaid. It may sound ridiculous but economists agree. How can this be true? We look at the economics of superstar sports salaries.
The mystery of Ryanair’s seat allocation
Ryanair carries more international passengers a year than any other airline. The European budget carrier is renowned for its low cost seats. If you want to guarantee seating next to people you book with, you have to pay extra. Otherwise, Ryanair says it will allocate seats randomly. We speak to statistician Dr Jennifer Rogers from the University of Oxford about her doubts over the ‘random’ nature of the seat allocation.
Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Producer: Charlotte McDonald and Richard Vadon
It’s the 100 year centenary of an obscure type of prime number – the Woodall Primes. To celebrate, stand-up mathematician Matt Parker is calling on listeners to search for a new one. Ordinary citizens can already help search for Mersenne Prime numbers by lending computer processing power to GIMPS – the Great Internet Mersenne Prime Search. Matt explains to Tim Harford what a Woodall Prime is, and why it deserves more attention.
Also - Making penalty shoot-outs fairer - 60% of penalty shoot-outs are won by the team going first, can this unfairness be overcome?
(image Matt Parker / photographer: Steve Ullathorne)
How statistics can help us understand the tragic fire at London’s Grenfell Tower.
The Voice of 1960s British children’s TV series ‘Trumpton’, Brian Cant, died this week. The More or Less team has visited the town of Trumpton on a number of occasions so we have brought together a handful of our favourites as a tribute.
The results of the general election are in - but what do they mean? Did more young people vote than expected? Have we now got a more diverse parliament? How many extra votes would Jeremy Corbyn have needed to become Prime Minister - these are just some of the claims and questions that have been floating around on social media and in the press. Tim Harford and the team are going to analyse, add context and try and find answers.
Cheick Tiote, the much loved former Newcastle United player collapsed and died while training with Chinese side Beijing Enterprises earlier this month. His death and that of other black footballers have caused some commentators to ask – are African or black players more likely to die while playing than other people?
The data of footballers deaths is pretty poor but we try to glean some answers from the scant numbers available. It look like one of the most common causes of death among players on the pitch is cardiac arrest – son is this is a greater risk factor for people of African heritage?
We speak to statistician Dr Robert Mastrodomenico and Professor Sanjay Sharma, a specialist in sports cardiology.
Presented and produced by Jordan Dunbar and Charlotte McDonald
This podcast is a compilation of interviews by the More or Less team with Eddie Mair from Radio 4’s PM programme. Each interview features a different claim or hotly discussed topic from the UK general election campaign: from school funding, to numbers of armed police officers.
Trumpets are blasting in this week’s musical episode. But can medical statistics be transformed into a jazzy night out? That was the challenge which epidemiologist Elizabeth Pisani set for composer Tony Haynes. This June, his Grand Union Orchestra will be performing Song of Contagion, an evening of steel pans, saxophones and singers telling the story of diseases including Zika and AIDs.
We met Elizabeth and Tony in an East London music studio, to hear Song of Contagion come together for the very first time.
Producer: Hannah Sander
(Photo: Detail close up of French Horn musical instrument, part of the Brass family of instruments. Credit: Shutterstock)
On this final programme of the series we try to give some context to some of the issues that are being discussed during the current election campaign.
Who pays tax?
What proportion of adults are paying income tax? How much are they paying? Where does the highest burden lay? We take a look. Also, we look at the different political parties’ tax policies. This includes corporation tax, but what about National Insurance?
How do you cut migration?
The Conservative manifesto again includes the aim to lower net migration to tens of thousands. How has this aim fared in the last six years? And what could the Conservatives do in future years to achieve their goal? We also take a look at what impact that might have on the economy.
Taking the nations’ temperature
Summer has arrived – but we cast our minds to the chilly months ahead and think about the Winter Fuel Payment. The Conservatives are proposing to change this to a means-tested system – everywhere except Scotland. Is this because Scotland is colder than the rest of the UK? BBC Weather Man Phil Avery has the answer.
Free School Meals
It’s been a popular topic in party manifestos - free school meals. Jamie Oliver thinks school dinners are essential for fighting obesity – but is there really a case to be made for the health benefits of a school lunch? Emily Tanner from the National Centre for Social Research puts the case for and against Universal Free School Meals – while munching a pie and a packed lunch.
Our entire education system is faulty, claim experts. They worry that schools don’t prepare kids for the world outside. But how could anyone prove what the future will be like?
We set off on a round-the-world sleuthing trip to trace a statistic that has been causing headaches for students, teachers and politicians alike. Helping us on our quest are educators Cathy Davidson, Daisy Christodoulou and Andrew Old – plus a little bit of Blade Runner and a lot data-wrangling.
Producer: Hannah Sander
(Photo: Classmates taking part in peer learning. Credit: Shutterstock)
Can security services follow everyone known to them?
The attack on Manchester Arena took place exactly four years since the killing of Drummer Lee Rigby in Woolwich. Back in 2013 we broadcast an interview with the former Head of MI5, Dame Stella Rimmington, about the difficulties of monitoring people who have been flagged up to the services. We are re-visiting that interview.
Chances of ending up in a care home
There are around 11.6 million people over the age of 65 in the UK, but how many need social care services? A listener got in chances to say that he was 72 - what are the chances that he will need social care services in his lifetime? We look at the numbers of people in both residential care and receiving formal care services in the home currently.
Penalty shoot outs update
A few weeks ago we explained UEFA's new procedure for carrying out penalty shoot outs. We bring news of how that system is playing out, and how a loyal listener has spotted a famous pattern in Blur's song, 'Girls and Boys'.
Stop sneak peak access
For years statisticians have been calling for an end to the practice of allowing ministers and officials to see official numbers before everyone else. Why does it matter? We tell the strange tale exploring whether economic data is leaked to City traders before its official publication. Could pre-release access to Government statistics be behind strange movements on financial markets? With help from Mike Bird of the Wall Street Journal, and Alex Kurov of the University of West Virginia, we take a look at the evidence.
Also - a tribute to Sir Roger Moore.
Has Uganda been accepting more refugees on a daily basis than some European countries manage in an entire year? That is the claim from the Norwegian Refugee Council – and it is a claim we put to the test.
Civil war and famine in South Sudan have forced millions to leave their homes, and this has had a colossal impact on neighbouring Uganda. We speak to Gopolang Makou, a researcher at Africa Check who has some startling figures to share.
(Photo: Children wait as WFP, 'World Food Programme' prepare to deliver food aid at the Bidi Bidi refugee camp Credit: Dan Kitwood/Getty Images)
Exploring the Labour manifesto's tax plans for high earners.
What is happening to nurses pay?
Amid reports of nurses using food banks, Jeremy Hunt said he doesn’t recognise claims their wages are worth less now than in 2010. He says nurses are actually paid £31,000 - more than the average person. If he’s right, why do so many nurses say they’re earning much less than that?
The Great Scottish Election Conspiracy
The reporting of the Scottish council elections has caused a bit of a stir. Did the SNP lose seven seats or gain six. The media including the BBC reported that they had lost seats, the many SNP supporters are sure that this isn’t a fair representation of their performance. This all hinges on how you look at the results last time around and how you account for the major boundary review that took place between elections. Tim tries to get to the bottom of what has happened with Professor David Denver from Lancaster University.
Penalty shootout maths
What do coffee, stew and nerve-biting football finales have in common? Maths whizz and football aficionado Rob Eastaway explains all. UEFA, European football’s governing body, is currently trialling a new system for penalty shootouts. But what is the maths behind the new system – and could a century-old Scandinavian mathematical sequence offer a better approach?
Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Charlotte McDonald
All over the world mothers are given numbers as their baby grows. The numbers are from ‘growth charts’ showing how a baby is developing in comparison to others. Seven month old Baby Arlo has particularly big numbers, so much so that his parents are worried he’s one of the biggest babies in America. But where do these numbers come from? Is it an average? Why do they measure a baby’s head? Reporter Jordan Dunbar sets out to find out how we get these baby numbers and just how big Baby Arlo is.
Presenter: Tim Harford and Jordan Dunbar Producer: Charlotte McDonald and Jordan Dunbar
Why some parts of town are hard to navigate.
It looks like homicides are on the rise - but better check the footnotes
How to use mathematics to find your partner. And, how reliable are pregnancy due dates?
Giant bombs, a war hero and the foreign secretary's stats.
Are middle-aged white Americans dying younger than other groups?
Are people's incomes falling? Plus singing Pi like Kate Bush
How much do you know about the world?
Why airlines bet that not everybody will turn up for a flight.
A single nuclear weapon could destroy America’s entire electrical grid, claims a former head of the CIA. The explosion would send out an electromagnetic pulse – resulting in famine, societal collapse and what one newspaper has called a “Dark Apocalypse”.
But are hungry squirrels a greater threat to the electrical grid than North Korean weapons? We speak to senior security adviser Sharon Burke and Yoni Applebaum from The Atlantic.
Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Producer: Hannah Sander
The claim that “one in four” of us will suffer from a mental health problem is popular amongst campaigners, politicians and the media. But this leads you to a simple question – where is this figure from and what’s the evidence? This was exactly what neuroscientist Jamie Horder asked, and far from being simple, it led him on quite a journey. So do we really know how many people are likely to develop mental health problems – Elizabeth Cassin and Charlotte McDonald find out.
Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Producer: Elizabeth Cassin
Ever since a BBC article highlighted the use of baby boxes in Finland they have become a bit of a phenomenon. They’re not new though Finland has been doing this for 75 years. The simple cardboard boxes are given to families for their new born babies to sleep in. Since their introduction cot death and has fallen and child health improved. Governments and individuals across the world have adopted them and companies have sprung up selling them. But think about for minute – can a cardboard box on its own really have such a huge effect – Elizabeth Cassin and Charlotte McDonald have been looking at the truth behind the story.
Presenter: Charlotte McDonald
Producer: Elizabeth Cassin
(Photo:One of Scotland's first baby boxes is seen at Clackmannanshire Community Health Centre. Credit: Getty Images)
Did China use more concrete in three years than the US in the 20th Century?
Are our attention spans now shorter than a goldfish's?
Top Hollywood actresses have complained that they are paid less than their male co-stars
What happened last night in Sweden?
Hidden Figures, the film, has been nominated for three awards at the Oscars and has been a box office hit in the US. It tells the little-known story of a group of African American women and their contribution to the space race in the 50s and 60s. We explore the history of how these women were recruited by Nasa and put to work on complex mathematical tasks – at a time when African Americans and women were far less likely to be employed in such jobs.
(Photo: Taraji P. Henson as Katherine Johnson,in a scene from Hidden Figures. Credit: Hopper Stone/Twentieth Century Fox/AP)
A huge hole was left in the world this week with the death of the Swedish statistician Han Rosling. He was a master communicator whose captivating presentations on global development were watched by millions. He had the ear of those with power and influence. His friend Bill Gates said Hans ‘brought data to life and helped the world see the human progress it often overlooked’. In a world that often looks at the bad news coming out of the developing world, Rosling was determined to spread the good news, extended life expectancy, falling rates of disease and infant mortality. He was fighting what he called the ‘post-fact era‘ of global health. He was passionate about global development and before he became famous he lived and worked in Mozambique, India and the Democratic Republic of Congo using data and his skills as a doctor to save lives. Despite ill health he also travelled to Liberia during the Ebola outbreak in 2014 to help gather and consolidate data to help fight the outbreak. On a personal level he was warm, funny and kind and will be greatly missed by a huge number of people.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Wesley Stephenson
(Image: Hans Rosling, speaks at a conference in 2012. Credit: Matthew Lloyd/Getty Images for ReSource 2012)
Does North Carolina really rank alongside North Korea if you measure electoral integrity
How many went to celebrate – and how many to protest – the Trump inauguration?
Blue Monday and Oxfam’s comparison wealth of billionaires and the poor –the stories that come around every year.
Were 90,000 Christians killed because of their faith in 2016?
How much water should you be drinking? There’s some age-old advice that suggests you should be drinking eight ounces (230 ml) eight times a day. Some people even advise you should be drinking this on top of what you normally drink. There is lots of advice out there but how do you know when you’ve had enough or if you’re drinking too much. With help from Professor Stanley Goldfarb from the University of Pennsylvania, Wesley Stephenson finds out.
(Image: Hand holding a glass of water. Credit: Charlotte Ball/PA Wire)
There have been reports that those radical Swedes have decided to reduce the working day to just six hours because, it has been claimed, productivity does not suffer. Before you all rush to the Swedish job pages this is not quite the case – but there have been trials in Sweden to test whether you can shorten people’s working hours without having an effect on output. Tim Harford talks to our Swedish correspondent Keith Moore about what the trials have found. He also speaks to professor John Pencavel, Emeritus Professor of Economics, at Stanford University, and finds that reducing working hours may not be as radical idea as it first appears. (Photo: A business man carries a black briefcase)
Saving lives with thin air - by taking nitrogen from the air to make fertiliser
Improving data to target help to the poorest people
Tim Harford poses a tough statistical challenge
Are footballers trying to get suspended for Christmas?
Notable deaths, Rule Britannia and creating your own Christmas speech
We look at the numbers behind the scary headlines about birth control.
The economic doom that never was; childhood cancer figures and Ed Balls
The survey by the Indian PM that broke all the polling rules and started a mass protest
What are the odds of being related to a medieval king? and how many cows for a fiver?
Renewable capacity has surpassed that of coal–is this good news? Plus an asteroid update.
High-rolling pensioners? predicting Norovirus, air pollution deaths and lost or found?
A new NASA warning system means we’re getting better at spotting Earth-bound space rocks. But how safe are we?
Is dementia on the rise? Plus immigration, incomplete contacts and chocolate muffins
Sexual violence was widespread in Liberia’s brutal and bloody year civil war. But were three quarters of women in the country raped? We tell the story behind the number and reveal how well-meaning efforts to expose what happened have fuelled myths and miss-leading statistics that continue to be propagated to this day, including by the UN.
We speak to Amelia Hoover Green from Drexel University, Dara Cohen from the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, researcher Phyllis Kimba and Aisha Dukule from the think tank Center For Liberia's Future in Monrovia.
(Photo: Liberian women and children wait for rice rations in overcrowded Monrovia, June 2003. Credit: Georges Gobet/AFP/Getty Images)
Who voted in the US elections? Plus are there nine million stray cats in the UK?
Does the world really spend three times as much on ice cream than on humanitarian aid?
The fact-checkers have been working overtime looking into the numbers used by Donald Trump during his campaign to become President of the USA. In the wake of the election next week, we take a look at some of Trump’s more outrageous statistical claims
Is a girl under 15 married every seven seconds? And beware dangerous algorithms
How many people die for every kilo of cocaine? More Or Less investigates.
When maths can get you locked up.
It’s now a year since the UN set its new Sustainable Development Goals to try to make the world a better place. They include 17 goals and a massive 169 targets on subjects like disease, education and governance. But some people like Bjorn Lomborg are saying that there’s just too many and they are too broad, and left like that will never achieve anything. Is he right – and is there a better way to make the world better and stop some countries lagging behind? Wesley Stephenson and Charlotte McDonald find out.
Polling on the first TV debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump appears to be divided over who won it. But not all polls are equal. If the people being polled aren’t representative of the population at large, then their responses may not tell you anything useful. And when internet polls can be hijacked by online activists, they can throw up some pretty strange results.
(Photo: Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton first presidential debate. Credit: Getty Images)
This week Donald Trump claimed that there are some inner city areas in the US which are suffering from the worst crime rates ever. They are so dangerous, he says, that Afghanistan is safer than many of these areas. But could this be true? We take a look at crime in the US and assess whether you can compare it to a conflict zone such as Afghanistan.
(Image: Chicago - Neighbourhood residents watch as police investigate a homicide scene. Credit: Scott Olson/Getty Images)
Can economics help us work out the perfect amount to spend on a wedding gift? Our reporter Jordan Dunbar is in a tricky situation-he’s heading to an old friend’s wedding and needs to figure out how much to give as a gift without breaking the bank. Luckily, economist Maria Kozlovskaya is on hand to talk about her findings on what factors we need to consider for gift giving, as well as preserving Jordan’s friendship and wallet.
Over the last two months the Government in the Philippines has been encouraging the police to clampdown on the illegal drug trade. The new President, Rodrigo Duterte, went as far as saying that citizens could shoot and kill drug dealers who resisted arrest, and the killings of drug suspects were lawful if the police acted in self-defence. The press have been reporting numbers of how many people have been killed during the crackdown – but how much trust can we put in these figures?
Lottery wins We interview Adam Kucharski, author of The Perfect Bet, to find out if maths can give you an edge to playing the lottery or gambling.
It is a commonly held belief that if women spend enough time together, their bodies start to communicate through chemical signals, known as pheromones. Eventually the women’s bodies will start to menstruate at the same time.
But where does this idea come from? And is it really true? We look at the evidence and wonder – could it be down to chance?
Britons entitled to Irish passports After the Brexit vote in June, so many Britons applied for Irish passports that Ireland’s foreign minister had to ask them to stop – pointing out that the UK remains, for now, in the EU. If some of the figures that have been quoted are correct, the Irish passport service may find itself completely inundated in future. But does one in four Britons really have Irish heritage? We reveal the dubious history of that number and attempt to estimate the number of Britons who are actually entitled to dual nationality with Ireland.
Do women’s periods sync? It is a commonly held belief that if women spend time together, their bodies start to sync and they will have their periods at the same time. But where does this idea come from? And is it really true? We look at the evidence and wonder – could it be down to chance?
Numbers in music Marcus du Sautoy takes us on a journey through some of his favourite musical pieces, pointing out the interesting mathematical patterns hidden in the compositions.
Dangerous algorithms Cathy O’Neil, a data scientist and activist, has written a new book, “Weapons of Math Destruction.” She is concerned about the proliferation of certain kinds of algorithms – that help make important decisions, but that could be based on unfair statistics with hidden biases. She explains how to look out for them, and what we can do to protect ourselves.
Desk of Good News – organ donations We look at the trends for organ donations and transplants.
Statistics suggest that officially about half of the countries in the world have abolished Capital Punishment, and a further 52 have stopped its use in practice. But we tell the story behind the numbers and show why the picture is more complicated. We speak to Parvais Jabbar, co-director of the Death Penalty Project.
The “gender pay gap” This topic has been in the news this week after the Institute for Fiscal Studies published research showing women end up 33% worse off than their male counterparts after they have children. But earlier in the summer, Fraser Nelson wrote in the Telegraph that the pay gap is “no longer an issue” for women born after 1975. Can both assessments be true? And could the label “gender pay gap” be hindering our understanding of what really lies behind the numbers?
The cost of a hospital If a politician or commentator wants to underline just how wasteful a piece of expenditure is, a common strategy is to compare it to the number of hospitals you could build instead. Of course, hospitals are positive things – we all want more, right? But just how much is a hospital? Is it really a useful unit of measurement? We speak to health economist John Appleby.
Corbyn Facts As Labour members begin voting on the party leadership, we investigate some of the claims made on the “Corbyn Facts” website set up by Jeremy Corbyn’s campaign. Did he really give 122 speeches on the EU referendum during the campaign? Were this year’s local election results as good as Labour’s best performance under Ed Miliband? We look at what the numbers tell us.
Death Penalty abolition Statistics suggest that officially about half of the countries in the world have abolished Capital Punishment, and a further 52 have stopped its use in practice. But we tell the story behind the numbers and show why the picture is more complicated. We speak to Parvais Jabbar, co-director of the Death Penalty Project.
The Holiday Desk of Good News This week we outline a handful of statistics to make everyone feel better about the UK and their holidays.
With high profile attacks in Brussels, Nice and Munich, you might think that 2016 has been a particularly bad year for terrorism in Europe. But what happens when you put the numbers in historical context and compare them with figures for the rest of the world? More Or Less hears from Dr Erin Miller of the Global Terrorism Database and Harvard psychology professor Steven Pinker.
(Image: A man wrapped in a Belgian flag holds a candle as people gather at a makeshift memorial on Place de la Bourse two days after a triple bomb attack hit. Credit: Philippe Huguen/AFP/Getty Images)
Is 2016 an unusually deadly year for terrorism?
In a joint investigation with BBC Newsbeat and BBC Monitoring, we’ve analysed nearly 25,000 news articles to assess whether 2016 so far has been a unusually deadly year for terrorism. It certainly feels like it. But what do the numbers say? We estimate that, between January and July this year, 892 people died in terrorist attacks in Europe – making it the most deadly first seven months of a year since 1994. But the vast majority of those deaths have been in Turkey. The number for Western Europe is 143, which is lower than many years in the 1970s.
Dying ‘at the hands of the police’
This week retired footballer Dalian Atkinson died after being 'tasered' by police. His death has renewed concerns about the number of people who die after coming into contact with the police. Recently it was claimed that one person a week dies ‘at the hands of the police’ and that ‘black people are disproportionately affected.’ We take a look at the numbers.
Olympic predictions
As the Games in Rio draw to an end, we look back at the medal predictions we made before they started. Which countries have performed as expected? And which failed to meet our expectations?
The cost of a wedding gift
Can economics tell us how much to spend on a wedding gift? Our reporter Jordan is in a tight spot. He’s heading to an old friend’s wedding and needs to figure out how little he can get away with spending on a gift. Luckily, economist Maria Kozlovskaya is on hand to explain her findings on our ‘internal exchange rate’ for gift giving. Can she preserve Jordan’s friendship while protecting his wallet?
World Records are being set at a much faster rate in swimming than in other sports. At the Rio Olympics, British swimmer Adam Peaty managed to break the men's 100m breaststroke world record twice in two days. Tim Harford speaks to swimming coach, Rick Madge, about the reasons swimmers keep getting better results in the pool.
Also, science writer Christie Aschwanden makes the case for the virtues of the 5,000 metre race. She says that in recent times it has become very popular for people to train to run a marathon. But when you look at the numbers, is the 5K a better distance?
Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Charlotte McDonald
It has been reported that Prime Minister Theresa May is planning on lifting the ban on creating new grammar schools. Chris Cook, Policy Editor for Newsnight, has been looking at the evidence for whether these selective schools improve exam performance or social mobility.
Swimming World Records New world records are being set in swimming at a much faster rate than other sports – but why? Tim Harford speaks to swim coach and blogger, Rick Madge about the reason swimmers keep getting better results in the pool. Why do other sports, like athletics, not seem to have the same continual improvements in results?
Teenage girls aren’t so bad after all This week’s Desk of Good News challenges the concept that teenage girls and young women are badly behaved. It features statistics on falling teenage pregnancy rates, drinking figures and improving educational success.
The rise of TV Was the Queen's Coronation the event that sparked the biggest rise in TV sales ever? We take a look at the rise of television in the UK.
Lottery wins Adam Kucharski, author of The Perfect Bet, looks at the maths behind playing the lottery or gambling.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Charlotte McDonald
How can we use statistics to predict how many medals each nation will win? We speak to Dr Julia Bredtmann, an economist at the RWI Leibniz Institute for Economic Research. She has come up with a model to predict how many medals each country will win, along with her colleagues, Sebastian Otten, also from the Leibniz Institute, and Carsten Crede of the University of East Anglia.
Some countries like the US and China have a large population and GDP, but a number of countries do very well for their size and wealth. Julia explains the different factors you have to consider to predict Olympic success.
The Government says that since the introduction of the 5p fee for single use plastic bags their use has plummeted. We take a look at the numbers.
Olympic Medals at Rio 2016 The Olympic Games are with us again. So how can we use statistics to predict how many medals each nation will win? We speak to Dr Julia Bredtmann, an economist at the Leibniz Institute for Economic Research.
Income inequality Politicians and commentators often claim that the rich are getting richer while the poor are getting poorer. But what do the numbers actually tell us about income inequality in the UK? Tim Harford interviews Jonathan Cribb of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, the co- author of a comprehensive analysis of Living Standards, Income Inequality and Poverty in the UK.
Desk of Good News – Maternal mortality rates The number of women dying in childbirth is falling around the world. In 1990, maternal mortality rates were 385 deaths per 100,000 live births Today there are 216 deaths per 100,000 live births. This means the death rate is down by nearly half.
The Coastline Paradox Why is it so difficult to measure coastlines? The further you zoom into the detail of a coastline, the longer it becomes. This is referred to as ‘The Coastline Paradox’. We speak to Mairi Walker, a mathematician at the University of Edinburgh, and Danny Hyam, from The Ordnance Survey - the UK government agency responsible for mapping our coastlines.
How can the techniques of computer science help us in everyday life? We speak to Brian Christian co-author of ‘Algorithms to Live by: The Computer Science of Human Decisions’. He argues that the techniques of computer science can help us manage everyday situations in a more logical and efficient manner. So which algorithm can help solve the problem of odd socks? And what is the most efficient way of alphabetising your book collection? Tim Harford investigates.
Many news outlets have reported this week that a Waitrose supermarket pushes up house prices in the surrounding area. It’s based on research that also suggests that other supermarkets have a similar but smaller effect. We take a highly sceptical look at the correlation.
Statistics and the EU referendum campaign We look at how the two campaigns, the media, and the much-discussed “experts” used statistics during the EU referendum campaign. Tim Harford interviews Will Moy, director of Fullfact, and Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies.
Antiques Roadshow BBC One’s Antiques Roadshow is a hugely popular television programme, where experts examine and value antiques and collectables. We ask whether the items featured really jump in value, or are we just seeing the price tag rise over the centuries in line with inflation? More Or Less reporter Charlotte McDonald heads down to the show to find out.
Computer Science and Socks Tim Harford speaks to Brian Christian, co-author of ‘Algorithms to Live by: The Computer Science of Human Decisions’. How can the techniques of computer science help us in every-day situations? And, most importantly, which algorithm will help our reporter Jordan Dunbar sort out his socks?
The Irish Central Statistics Office has released figures showing that Ireland’s economy grew by 26% in 2015. That would make it the fastest growing economy in the world. But American economist Paul Krugman described this as “leprechaun economics” as this growth rate is so unrealistically high. More or Less explores how multinational companies with headquarters in Ireland have led to an accounting headache for working out the country’s GDP.
Also, the mobile gaming app Pokemon Go has taken the US by storm and is now spreading across the world. But does Pokemon Go really have 26 million daily active users in the US? More Or Less investigates.
Protests have spread across the United States over the last few weeks. The protestors have been registering their feelings about incidents where police have shot and killed black men. High profile recent incidents resulted in the deaths of Alton Sterling and Philando Castle, and the protestors feel that minorities are being disproportionately targeted by the police.
On top of this, at a recent protest in Dallas a gunman shot and killed five police officers.
But what can the numbers tell us about the issue? How many people do police officers kill each year in the USA? And how many police officers are killed? Tim Harford investigates.
Producers: Charlotte McDonald, Elizabeth Cassin
It’s often said that we should all be aiming to get eight hours of sleep a night. But could it actually lead you to an early grave? Research shows that sleeping for longer, or shorter, than average is associated with an increased risk of disease and mortality. But what’s causing the health problems, and should you really give up the lie-in? Ruth Alexander looks at the latest sleep science with Dr Gregg Jacobs from UMASS Medical Center, US; Professor Franco Cappuccio from Warwick University, UK; Professor Jim Horne of Loughborough University, UK; and Professor Shawn Youngstedt of Arizona State University, US.
*Please note this is a repeat from February 2015*
(Photo: Man asleep in a bed. Credit: Corbis)
Is Iceland the best football team in the world per capita? England suffered a 2-1 defeat to Iceland in the European Football Championship in France. This was embarrassing for England when you consider its population is 163 times bigger than Iceland’s. We take a look at whether Iceland is now the best performing football team in the world if you compare UEFA ranking to the size of each country’s population. Plus, we take a look at the chances of a young man in Iceland and in England getting to represent their country on the pitch.
Old versus young Brexit voters
Many media outlets have reported that it was predominantly the older generations in the UK who voted to ‘Leave’ the EU in a recent referendum, while those under 25 were keenest to ‘Remain’. It has prompted many listeners to ask whether a referendum on this topic might yield a different result if held in a few years’ time as the electorate changes. We attempt some back of the envelope calculations with Tom Chivers from Buzzfeed. But actually – how good is the data available? How do we know how people voted or how they would vote in the future?
Following a referendum, the UK has voted to leave the European Union. Tim Harford and the team explore what that might mean for the UK’s economy. Most notably - what might be the impact on trade? We examine the economic forecasts from the government, and how the UK might manage its relationships with other countries.
(Image: A pay-per-view binocular with the British and European Union flags. Credit: Sean Gallup/Getty Images)
How are companies using our personal data? It’s a familiar concern. Online retailers are tracking us so they can sell things to us. Bricks and mortar retailers have loyalty card schemes. Our banks and credit card companies know all about us. And of course, the big computer and telecoms companies could potentially track our internet searches, our phone calls – even our location as we wander around. But this isn’t the first time that large corporations have gathered sensitive data about their customers. We tell the shadowy story of how the personal details of Americans were pooled among insurance companies more than a hundred years ago. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Elizabeth Cassin (Image: A police CCTV camera observes a woman walking. Credit: Leon Neal/AFP/Getty Images)
If it seems the EU referendum debate just involves two politicians shouting contradictory statistics at each other - then we are here to help. In this series, we're giving you a break from the politicians and we're going to try to figure out the truth. Bracing concept, isn't it? We'll be looking at some of the big questions - the cost of being a member, immigration, lawmaking and regulation. But today we're looking at trade. Tim Harford asks if the UK would be better off in or out when it comes to trade with other nations.
If it seems the EU referendum debate just involves two politicians shouting contradictory statistics at each other - then we are here to help. In this series, we're giving you a break from the politicians and we're going to try to figure out the truth. Bracing concept, isn't it? We'll be looking at some of the big questions - the cost of being a member, immigration, law-making and trade. But today we're looking at EU regulation. Tim Harford asks how much red tape from the EU is costs the UK and what might happen if we leave?
If it seems the EU referendum debate just involves two politicians shouting contradictory statistics at each other - then we are here to help. In this series, we're giving you a break from the politicians and we're going to try to figure out the truth. Bracing concept, isn't it? We'll be looking at some of the big questions - the cost of being a member, immigration, regulations and trade. But today we're looking at lawmaking. Tim Harford asks how much UK law comes from the EU and are we always being outvoted on what to implement?
If it seems the EU referendum debate just involves two politicians shouting contradictory statistics at each other - then we are here to help. In this series, we're giving you a break from the politicians and we're going to try to figure out the truth. Bracing concept, isn't it? We'll be looking at some of the big questions - The cost of the EU, lawmaking, regulations and trade. In th secomd of these programmes Tim Harford asks what might happen to migration if we left the EU, and what are the benefits and costs of EU migrants to the UK economy?
If the EU referendum debate just involves two politicians shouting contradictory statistics at each other - then we are here to help. In this series, we're giving you a break from the politicians and we're going to try to figure out the truth. Bracing concept, isn't it? We'll be looking at some of the big questions - immigration, lawmaking, regulations and trade. But in this first program, Tim Harford tackles two very basic questions: how much would we save if we left the EU? And what would we lose if we did?
There is a black hole in our knowledge of women and girls around the world. Campaigners say that they are often missing from official statistics and areas of their lives are ignored completely - but what needs to be done?
Producer: Charlotte McDonald Presenter: Tim Harford
The news aggregation website Zimbabwe Today recently ran a headline stating that 74% of African girls aged 15-24 are HIV positive. Although the statistic is not true, Mary Mahy from UNAIDS reveals that young women do have a higher infection rate than young men. Kyle Evans is a folk singing mathematician by trade who is always looking for new ways to communicate his love of maths to a sometimes apprehensive audience. Next week he is representing the UK against 26 other countries at the Cheltenham Science festival in England. He came into the studio to perform his competition entry.
Producer: Laura Gray Presenter: Ruth Alexander
What is the average length of stay in a refugee camp? It is regularly reported that it is 17 years but is this true?
Floppy Disks
This week’s shocking revelation of the computer world was that the Department of Defence still uses 1970s floppy disks to coordinate its nuclear weapons systems. But can it possibly be true that you could fit more than three million of them on a single ten dollar USB drive?
Producer: Laura Gray Presenter: Ruth Alexander
Recently one of our listeners contacted us to say he heard a BBC correspondent describe the iPhone as the most profitable product in history. It was just an off-the-cuff comment but it got us thinking - could it be true? We compare and contrast a range of products suggested by More or Less listeners to work out if the iPhone truly is the most profitable.
Producer: Laura Gray
Is London the most diverse city in the world? The new London mayor Sadiq Khan has claimed that it is, but is he right? How is diversity measured?
This month, British mathematician Sir Andrew Wiles will go to Oslo to collect the Abel prize, a prestigious maths prize for his work proving Fermat’s last theorem. Science author Simon Singh explains his work.
Producers: Laura Gray and Ed Davey.
At the beginning of the season of the English football Premier League, few people would have been brave enough to predict that Leicester City would finish top. But was it that surprising?
Tim Harford speaks to Lord Finkelstein, a political journalist, who has been running his own statistical model to assess the teams in the Premier League. We also hear from James Yorke from the football analytics website Stats Bomb. Was Leicester’s success down to the team’s skills, or was it down to luck?
Recently one of our listeners contacted us to say he heard a BBC correspondent describe the iPhone as the most profitable product in history. It was just an off-the-cuff comment but it got us thinking – could it be true? We asked listeners to get in touch with their suggestions. We take a look at a handful of them, from Viagra to popcorn in our quest for an answer. Could it be something more historical?
EU and trade: We take a look at the numbers on trade and at the UK’s relationship with the EU. Tim Harford interviews Chad P. Bown, a Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
Leicester City's Premier League success: At the beginning of the football season we explored the fallibility of predictions from experts and fans. As the season is ending, that is the only prediction we made correctly – that they are usually very wrong. Leicester City has had an astonishing success in winning the English Premier League. We take a look at the numbers behind the team’s performance.
Sexist Data Crisis: Are countries around the world failing to collect adequate details about their female citizens? Campaigners have argued we are missing data in areas that would help us understand women’s lives better, for example land and inheritance rights. We also explore how women’s work can be overlooked from labour surveys.
A Dutch statistician recently became suspicious by headlines in the Dutch news that women were being discriminated against when it came to getting science research funding. Professor Casper Albers of the Heymans Institute for Psychological Research, Groningen, discovered that the study into the funding process showed that when you looked at the overall numbers of successful candidates, women seemed to be less successful than men. And yet, when you looked at a breakdown of the different subjects people could apply for, it showed that women were not losing out disproportionately to men. How could two opposite findings be true? This contradiction is explained by a famous statistical paradox. We explain what is known as Simpson’s Paradox with the aid of a choir metaphor, performed by the BBC Singers.
How many people have come from the EU to live in the UK? And what impact do they have on the economy? This week it was reported there had been an increase in fire deaths – we aren’t so sure. We explain the achievement of Abel Prize winning mathematician Sir Andrew Wiles for Fermat’s Last Theorem. Plus, we explore the numbers behind Simpson’s Paradox.
What is the most expensive “object” ever built? There are plans in the UK to build a brand new nuclear power station called Hinckley Point. The environmental charity Greenpeace have claimed it is set to be the most expensive object on Earth. But could it really cost more to build than the Great Pyramid of Giza? We take a look at some of the most costly building projects on the planet.
EU Treasury report
This week there was much debate over the Treasury report which modelled how leaving the EU would affect the economy. Tim Harford speaks to the Spectator’s Fraser Nelson about how the document was presented to the public, and how it was reported. Chris Giles of the Financial Times explains that there are useful points to take from the Treasury’s analysis.
Hinckley Point nuclear power station
What is the most expensive “object” ever built? The environmental charity Greenpeace has claimed it is set to be the most expensive object on Earth. But could it really cost more to build than the Great Pyramids? We take a look at some of the most costly building projects on the planet.
Chances of serving on a jury
A listener in Scotland is curious to know what the chances are of being selected for jury service. Several of his family members have received summons, but he has not. We look at who is eligible to serve, and what your odds are of receiving a summons.
European Girls Maths Olympiad
Last week we told the story of how the European Girls Maths Olympiad (EGMO) came into being. We followed the UK team on their recent journey to Romania to compete against 38 other teams from Europe and around the world.
Life expectancy of a Pope
In 2014 Pope Francis alluded to the fact he didn’t expect to live more than another two or three years. A group of statisticians have taken a look at the life expectancy of popes over the centuries and decided that he may have been rather pessimistic.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Charlotte McDonald
Life expectancy of a Pope
In 2014 Pope Francis alluded to the fact he didn’t expect to live more than another two or three years. A group of statisticians have taken a look at the life expectancy of popes over the centuries and decided that he may have been rather pessimistic.
The curse of the London Olympics
In a similar vein, is there an unusually high death count among athletes who took part in the London Olympics in 2012? The French press seem to think there is. Currently news reports estimate that 18 people have so far died since taking part in the sports event. The athletes come from teams around the world and have died from all sorts of causes – from cancer to drowning, murder, suicide, a helicopter crash among other things. But is there really a link between taking part in the London Olympics and the chances of dying? Or is it to be expected, statistically speaking, that 18 people have died over the last four years?
Celebrity deaths
A number of people have asked the team if more famous people have died this year compared to other years. It’s a hard one to measure – but we have had a go at some back of the envelope calculations with data from Who’s Who and BBC obituaries. Is the intuitive feeling that more people have died this year misplaced?
‘What British Muslims really think’ poll
This week many news outlets covered polling research carried out for a documentary on Channel 4. Some of the points that came out included that half of all British Muslims think homosexuality should be illegal and that 23% want Sharia Law. But how representative are these views? We speak to Anthony Wells from the blog UK Polling Report who explains the difficulties of carrying out polling.
The number of Brits abroad
Figures released this week suggested that there was an increase in the number of people coming to the UK from other parts of Europe. But many listeners have been asking – how many Brits are living in other parts of Europe? We try to find the best figures available.
European Girls Maths Olympiad
In 2012 a new international maths competition was started at the University of Cambridge. It was a chance for female students to get a chance of meeting girls from other countries and try to solve hard maths problems, as they are under represented at most other international competitions. We hear about how the competition got started in celebration of this year's competition in Romania.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Charlotte McDonald
In the 1600s astronomers were coming up with measurements to help sailors read their maps with a compass. But with all the observations of the skies they were making, how do they choose the best number? We tell the story of how astronomers started to find the average from a group of numbers. By the 1800s, one Belgian astronomer began to apply this to all sorts of social and national statistics – and the ‘Average Man’ was born.
Paternity Leave This week it was claimed that only 1 percent of men are taking up the option of shared parental leave – a new provision that came into force a year ago. A number of media outlets covered the story, interviewing experts about why there was such a low take-up. But in reality the figures used are deeply flawed and cannot be used to prove such a statement.
Exponential Love “I love you twice as much today as yesterday, but half as much as tomorrow.” – This is the inscription on a card that teacher Kyle Evans once saw in a card from his father to his mother. But if that was true, what would it have meant over the course of their relationship? Kyle takes us through a musical exploration of what exponential love would look like. The item is based on a performance he gave for a regional heat of Cheltenham Festivals Famelab – a competition trying to explain science in an engaging way.
The cost of the EU One of our listeners spotted a comparison made this week between the UK’s contribution to the EU and a sandwich. One blogger says it’s like buying a £3 sandwich with a £5 note, and getting over a £1,000 in change. We look at the figures on how much the UK pays to the EU, and what it gets back.
The story of ‘average’ In the 1600s astronomers were coming up with measurements to help sailors read their maps with a compass. But with all the observations of the skies they were making, how did they choose the best number? We tell the story of how astronomers started to find the average from a group of numbers. By the 1800s, one Belgian astronomer began to apply it to all sorts of social and national statistics – and the ‘Average Man’ was born.
And we set a little maths problem to solve...
Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Charlotte McDonald
Could there really be 26,911 words of European Union regulation dedicated to the sale of cabbage? This figure is often used by those arguing there is too much bureaucracy in the EU. But we trace its origins back to 1940s America. It wasn’t true then, and it isn’t true today. So how did this cabbage myth grow and spread? And what is the real number of words relating to the sale of cabbages in the EU? Tim Harford presents.
Could there really be 26,911 words of European Union regulation dedicated to the sale of cabbage? This figure is often used by those arguing there is too much bureaucracy in the EU. But we trace its origins back to 1940s America. It wasn't true then, and it isn't true today. So how did this cabbage myth grow and spread? And what is the real number of words relating to the sale of cabbages in the EU? After the recent announcement that all schools would be converted to academies, a number of listeners have asked us to look into the evidence of how they perform. Education Secretary Nicky Morgan wrote a guest post on Mumsnet and More or Less were called upon to check her numbers. The popular TV show The Only Way is Essex claimed in its 200th episode that it had contributed more than a billion pounds to the UK economy. We investigate if this is true. Plus, can we trust food surveys? Stories about which foods are good and bad for you, which foods are linked to cancer and which have beneficial qualities are always popular. But how do experts know what people are eating? Tim Harford speaks to Christie Aschwanden, FiveThirtyEight's lead writer for science, about the pitfalls of food surveys. She kept a food diary and answered nutrition surveys and found many of the questions were really hard to answer.
New alcohol guidelines were issued recently in the UK which lowered the number of units recommended for safe drinking. But are the benefits and harms of alcohol being judged correctly? We speak to Professor David Speigelhalter. Tim Harford presents. Producer: Charlotte McDonald/Richard Vadon
Mobile technology is spreading fast in Africa, and one lawyer Gerald Abila has done the maths and worked out that there are more mobile phones than lightbulbs in Uganda. We look at his figures and find that measuring them is more complicated than you might imagine. There are certainly numbers you can choose to demonstrate this, but are they the right ones? Thyroid cancer has gone up after the Fukushima accident - but it's not what you think. Japanese authorities were worried about the impact of radiation that escaped into the atmosphere after a nuclear plant was damaged during the earthquake of 2011. Around 300,000 under-19s received ultrasound scans to look for abnormalities, and the results appeared alarming. One expert claimed there were 30 times more cases than might have been expected. But a group of epidemiologists have since questioned this - they say if you survey so many people, you will always find more cases. Producer: Charlotte McDonald/Laura Gray
Stories about what foods are good and bad for you, which foods are linked to cancer and which have beneficial qualities are always popular online and in the news. But how do experts know what people are eating? Tim Harford speaks to Christie Aschwanden, FiveThirtyEight’s lead writer for science, about the pitfalls of food surveys. She kept a food diary and answered nutrition surveys and found many of the questions were really hard to answer – how could she tell all the ingredients in a restaurant curry; and how many tomatoes did she eat regularly over the past six months? Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Charlotte McDonald/Wesley Stephenson
"Every one percent unemployment goes up, 40,000 people die, did you know that?" says Brad Pitt playing a former investment banker Ben Rickert, in the recent Oscar-winning film The Big Short. Although based on a true story, the filmmakers admit there is some creative license in some of the scenes. But is there any truth to this statistic? It turns out it’s a figure that has been around for many decades. We explore its origins.
The debate over whether the UK should leave the European Union is heating up ahead of the referendum this summer. Many politicians have said that the UK is the fifth largest economy in the world – is that a fair assessment? We look at the GDP figures.
(Image: Brad Pitt attends the premiere of "The Big Short" in New York 2015. Credit: Dimitrios Kambouris/Getty Images)
It’s a life and death situation – the world is at its last line of defence against some pretty nasty bacteria and there are no new antibiotics. But it’s not the science that’s the big problem, it the economics. Despite the $40 billion market worldwide there’s no money to be made in antibiotics so big pharma have all but stopped their research. Why is this and how do we entice them back in? Wesley Stephenson finds out. (Image: Computer artwork of bacteria - credit: Science Photo Library)
Could no prize have been a better way to motivate snooker player Ronnie O’Sullivan?
There were reports recently that there will more plastic in the ocean than fish by 2050. The report comes from The Ellen MacArthur Foundation. But as we discover there's something fishy about these figures. And what are the chances that as a parent you share your birthday with two of your children.
Adverstising dressed up as research has inspired us this week. Firstly recent reports that said that young women aged between 16 and 25 spend five and a half hours taking selfies on average. It doersn't take much thinking to realise that thhere something really wrong with this number. We pick apart the survey that suggested women are spending all that time taking pictures of themselves.
The second piece of questionable research comes from reports that a quarter of a million UK students are getting money from 'sugar daddies' they met online. The story came from a sugar daddy website. They claim around 225,000 students have registered with them and have met (mostly) men for what they call "mutually beneficial arrangements". We explain our doubts over the figures.
There were reports recently that there will more plastic in the ocean than fish by 2050. The report comes from The Ellen MacArthur Foundation. But, as we discover, there's something fishy about these figures.
Away from advertising, studies have shown that children born in the summer do not perform as well as children born earlier in the academic year. For this reason schools are being encouraged to be sympathetic to parents that want their summer-born children to start a year later. But what should parents do? Is this a good option? We speak to Claire Crawford, Assistant Professor of Economics at the University.
Gemma Tetlow from the Institute for Fiscal Studies explains how some areas of public spending having fallen to similar levels seen in 1948. She explains how spending has changed over time, and what might happen in the future.
And friend of the programme, Kevin McConway, explains some of the statistical words that non-statisticians do not understand.
Research last month claimed to show that e-cigarettes harm your chances of quitting smoking. The paper got coverage world-wide but it also came in for unusually fierce criticism from academics who spend their lives trying to help people quit. It’s been described as "grossly misleading" and "not scientific". We look at what is wrong with the paper and ask if it should have been published in the first place.
(Image: Man smoking e-cigarette. Credit: Dan Kitwood/Getty Images)
Do e-cigarettes make quitting smoking more difficult? Research last month claimed to show that e-cigarettes harm your chances of quitting smoking. The paper got coverage world-wide but it also came in for unusually fierce criticism from academics who spend their lives trying to help people quit. It's been described as 'grossly misleading' and 'not scientific'. We look at what is wrong with the paper and ask if it should have been published in the first place.
A campaign of dodgy statistics
Are American presidential hopefuls getting away with statistical murder? We speak to Angie Drobnic, Editor of the US fact-checking website Politifact, about the numbers politicians are using - which are not just misleading, but wrong.
Will missing a week of school affect your GCSE results?
Recently education minister Nick Gibb said that missing a week of school could affect a pupil's GCSE grades by a quarter. We examine the evidence and explore one of the first rules of More or Less – 'correlation is not causation'. We interview Stephen Gorard, Professor of Education at Durham University.
What are the chances that a father and two of his children share the same birthday?
A loyal listener got in touch to find out how rare an occurrence this is. Professor David Spiegelhalter from the University of Cambridge explains the probabilities involved.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Charlotte McDonald
Have refugees caused a gender imbalance in Sweden? It has been reported that there are 123 boys for every 100 girls aged between 16 and 17 in Sweden. In China, the ratio is 117 boys to 100 girls. We explore if the numbers add up and why this might be.
New alcohol guidelines were issued recently which lowered the number of units recommended for safe drinking. But are the benefits and harms of alcohol being jusged correctly? We speak to Professor David Speigelhalter and
Sepsis – do 44,000 people die of it a year? Is it the country's second biggest killer? We speak to Dr Marissa Mason about the difficulties of knowing the numbers.
Dan Bouk tells the story of a statistician who crept around graveyards in South Carolina at the turn of the century recording how long people lived - all to help out an insurance firm. It's from his book 'How our days became numbered' – looking at how data from insurance company has shaped knowledge about our lives.
Have refugees caused a gender imbalance in Sweden or is there something funny going on? It has been reported that there are 123 boys for every 100 girls aged between 16 and 17 in Sweden. In China, the ratio is 117 boys to 100 girls. We explore if the numbers add up and why this might be.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Charlotte McDonald
You may have seen the claim that ‘62 people now own as much wealth as half of the world’s population’. You may also have seen headlines that suggest that 1% of the world’s population now own more than the 99% put together. This is the latest iteration of Oxfam’s annual report looking at global inequality. They say that the overall the world may be getting richer but that most of the wealth is concentrated in the hands of fewer and fewer people. But is this really telling us what we think it’s telling us? Tim Harford asks economics writer Felix Salmon and development expert Charles Kenny.
Oxfam says that 62 people now own as much wealth as half of the world’s population. But is this really telling us anything meaningful? And how is it that this study shows that some of the world’s poorest people live in the United States?
What do you do with bored children on a bus? Rob Eastaway, author of ‘Maths on the go,’ gets three pupils to play a game on the Number 12 in south London.
Prime Minister David Cameron said this week that 22% of British Muslim women speak little or no English. He says that equates to 190,000. We look at the figures.
Plus, was the Hatton Garden Heist the biggest robbery ever? Is water more expensive than oil? And a new prime number is discovered.
One of our 2015 ‘Numbers of the Year’ predictions might have come to pass. There is great excitement over rumours that one of the predictions Einstein made in his theory of General Relativity has finally been observed. But it’s not the first time it’s been reported that ‘gravitational waves’ have been discovered, and the last time proved to be an equipment test.
What is the total number of possible tweets that could be created from 140 characters? In a recent programme Professor John Allen-Paulos told us that when you take into account all of the symbols available, the total number of possible tweets is Googol^2.8 (which is a 1 followed by 280 zeros.) But has he missed some options?
Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt said this week that if you have a stroke at the weekends, you're 20% more likely to die. But is that true? We look at the evidence.
Are you more likely to win prizes with newer Premium Bonds? We ask Radio 4’s Money Box presenter Paul Lewis if there is any truth in this.
A few weeks ago many newspapers were reporting that alcohol was the cause of 70% of Accident and Emergency attendances over the weekends. Did the newspapers misunderstand the research?
Why was the polling in the run up to the General Election last year so wrong? We speak to Professor John Curtice, lead author on a report using the 2015 British Social Attitudes Survey to see if they could come up with better data.
There is great excitement over rumours that one of the predictions Einstein made in his theory of General Relativity has finally been observed. We ask UCL physicist Dr Andrew Pontzen why this is big news.
Plus, is the air in Beijing is so bad that it's like smoking 40 cigarettes a day? We investigate.
What is preventing some Americans from being creative? And, how much money does the English Premier League contribute in tax? Tim Harford looks back over some of the numbers that made the news in 2015. He speaks to author and broadcaster Farai Chideya, former footballer Graeme le Saux, and BBC cricket statistician Andrew Samson.
Tim Harford and the team take a look at some of the numbers in the news about flooding. What is a one hundred year flood? And is there really a north-south divide in the amount of money spent on flood defences in England?
What is the total number of possible tweets that could be created from 140 characters? In a recent programme Professor John Allen-Paulos told us that when you take into account all of the symbols available, the total number of possible tweets is Googol2.8 (which is a 1 followed by 280 zeros.) But has he missed some options?
One of our listener’s questions whether Christmas Eve is really the busiest day on the roads. We take a look at the figures.
Plus – which is the bigger number? The total number of Storm Trooper toys ever made, or the number of real life soldiers serving in armies around the world?
How healthy is the Nigerian economy and how many possible tweets are there? Tim Harford looks back over some of the numbers that made the news in 2015. Guests include: Peter Cunliffe-Jones from Africa Check, Professor John Allen Paulos and Dr Andrew Pontzen
Tim Harford looks back at some of the most interesting numbers behind the news in 2015, from the migrant crisis to social media messages. Contributors include: Professor Jane Green, Helen Arney, Paul Lewis, Andrew Samson, Leonard Doyle , Peter Cunliffe-Jones, Farai Chideya, Claire Melamed and Professor John Allen Paulos.
How has the European migrant crisis affected the number of people seeking asylum? In this special programme Tim Harford looks back at some of the numbers making the news in 2015. Guests include: Leonard Doyle from the International Organisation for Migration and Claire Melamed from the Overseas Development Institute.
Are Star Wars’ Stormtroopers the biggest secret army on Earth? Ruth Alexander investigates, and looks at some of the other numbers behind one of the most successful movie franchises in history.
Do so-called ‘100 year floods’ only happen once a century? Ruth Alexander and Wesley Stephenson investigate. Also, does the air in Beijing cause as much damage as smoking 40 cigarettes a day?
Ruth Alexander investigates claims climate change has contributed to the war in Syria, and with the climate change summit COP21 underway in Paris, we answer listener’s climate change number questions.
A front page article in a British tabloid claimed that one in five British Muslims have sympathy for jihadis. Ruth Alexander investigates whether this is correct, and asks which countries have the most support for Islamic State fighters.
Has so-called Islamic State been losing territory? Britain's Prime Minister David Cameron has claimed IS have lost about 25-30% of their territory in Iraq. Is this true? Plus, is Premier League footballer Héctor Bellerín faster than Usain Bolt? Bellerín can reportedly run 40 metres in 4.41 seconds. Ruth Alexander asks how their times compare.
Are creative people more likely to suffer mental illness, and has Cuba wiped out child hunger? Wesley Stephenson investigates.
As China ends its one child rule what has been its impact on the country’s population? The More or Less team take a look at whether the policy on its own has slowed the rate at which China’s population has been growing. And now that parents in China will be allowed to have two children, which country will have the largest population in 2030? China or India? Ruth Alexander presents.
Are processed meats as cancer-causing as cigarettes, and has the Rugby world cup been the most brutal? Ruth Alexander investigates.
Nigeria’s President Muhammadu Buhari said a million barrels of the country’s oil were stolen per day. Is he right? Ruth Alexander asks Peter Cunliffe-Jones of Africa Check. And, does 13% of the world’s undiscovered oil lie in the Arctic? Producers: Keith Moore and Phoebe Keane.
Tim Harford interviews Nobel Prize winning economist professor Angus Deaton about a lifetime measuring inequality
Are tall people really more likely to get cancer? Ruth Alexander looks at a new Swedish study that’s caused headlines around the world, and asks how worried tall people like her should be about developing the conditions.
Managers and pundits often say “it’s harder to play against ten men”, but is there any truth in it? Also, Tim Harford speaks to the author Siobhan Roberts about Professor John Conway, who has been described as a genius and one of the world’s most charismatic mathematicians. Producers: Keith Moore and Wesley Stephenson
How reliable is psychology science? The Reproducibility of Psychological Science project reported recently and it made grim reading. Having replicated 100 psychological studies published in three psychology journals only thirty six had significant results compared to 97% first time around. So is there a problem with psychological science and what should be done to fix it. Decimate Tim used the word in an interview last week to mean devastate rather than cut by ten percent – many listeners said this was unforgivable – was it? – We ask Oliver Kamm - Author of 'Accidence Will Happen: The Non-Pedantic Guide to English Usage'.
Alzheimers What's behind the claim that 1 in 3 people born in the UK this year could get Alzheimers? How reliable is the science in psychology? The Reproducibility of Psychological Science project reported recently and it made grim reading. Having replicated 100 psychological studies published in three psychology journals only thirty six had significant results compared to 97% first time around. So is there a problem with psychological science and what should be done to fix it? One of mathematics' enigmas He is described as one of the most charismatic mathematicians but he is also shy and enigmatic. Professor John Conway has been described as a genius whose most famous innovation is the cell automaton The Game of Life - Tim talks to Siobhan Roberts about the man and his life. Is it more difficult to play against ten men? Arsene Wenger has said it, Sam Allerdyce and Steve Bruce have said it too - it's more difficult to play against ten men. It's an oft quoted footballing cliché but is there any truth in it? Decimate Tim used the word in an interview last week to mean devastate rather than cut by ten percent - many listeners said this was unforgivable - was it? - We ask Oliver Kamm - Author of 'Accidence Will Happen: The Non-Pedantic Guide to English Usage'.
The average rugby pack is much bigger than it was 20 years ago but has the growth finally plateaued? Living Blue Planet Index Populations of marine mammals, birds, fish and reptiles have declined by 49% since 1970, a report says. But what does this actually mean?
Striking numbers? Are the unions really on the rise again and holding the country to ransom?
The rise of the giants Are rugby players really getting biger and bigger?
Living Blue Planet Index Populations of marine mammals, birds, fish and reptiles have declined by 49% since 1970, a report says. But what does this actually mean?
Bean counter The Office for National Statistics is much maligned whether it's its data revisions, the fact that some of it statistics have been deemed not fit for purpose or that we still haven't worked out why UK productivity is so low. So George Osborne has launched a review of the economic statistics spewed out by the ONS to see where improvements can be made. Tim talks to Professor Sir Charles Bean who is conducting the review.
Banana Equivalent dose Following on from our revelation that bananas can't kill you even if you eat seven we look deeper into their radioactivity and the 'banana equivalent dose'.
Too dense Is population density the right measure to be looking at when working out how many refugees countries should take- and if not what is? How many bananas will kill you? There’s a belief among some people that too many bananas will kill you. Eat too many and you will overdose on potassium and die. But how many bananas would you need to eat?
Can you rely on non-voters During the election for the leadership of the Labour Party in the UK Jeremy Corbyn has whipped up unprecedented support among grass roots activists pushing him into a surprising lead. Bernie Sanders the left-wing Democratic candidate has done the same energised grass roots support in the United States in a similar way. Their supporters believe in both cases they can shake up the political mainstream and convince non-voters to turn out at the ballot box. But is this a wise strategy?
The latest on deaths for people admitted at a weekend? Reports suggested 11,000 are dying in hospital after being admitted at the weekend but what does the report actually say?
Too dense Is the UK already more densely populated than other places in Europe and is this a good argument against taking more refugees.
How many houses do we need? We're told that we need to build 200,000+ houses a year to meet housing need in this country. We talk to Kate Barker the woman who first came up with this number about where it comes from and what it means.
How many bananas will kill you? There's a belief among some people that too many bananas will kill you. Eat too many and you will overdose on potassium and die. But how many bananas would you need to eat?
Queuing backwards Britons love to queue, but have we been getting it wrong? Lars Peter Osterdal from the University of Southern Denmark discusses his theory of how to make queuing more efficient. Thinking Like an Engineer Engineer Guru Madhavan tells the story of the development of the barcode and argues that those making policy should ask engineers as well as economists about solving social problems. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Wesley Stephenson
Deaths of people 'fit for work' Thousands of people are dying after being declared 'fit for work' by the government according to the Guardian. The figures are from a long awaited freedom of information release from the Department for Work and Pensions. But do the figures actually tell us anything? More or Less investigates.
Sugar Sugar has had a pretty bad press over the last few months and seems to have replaced fat as the current 'evil' in our diets. We look at some of the claims that have been made about rotting teeth and the justifications for a sugar tax.
Zero-hours contracts The latest figures show a 20% rise - but does this really mean that more people are on zero hours contracts thab=n last year?
Queuing Backwards Britons love to queue, but have we been getting it wrong? Lars Peter Osterdal from the University of Southern Denmark discusses his theory of how to make queuing more efficient.
The Chinese Market Crash in context. How big is the market, how many investors does it have and does it tell us anything about the wider Chinese economy? Sprinters legs It may seem strange, but world class runners don’t move their legs faster than average park runner. That’s the claim anyway – is it true and if so what is it that makes athletes like Usain Bolt and Justin Gatlin run so fast?
The Chinese Market Crash in context. How big is the market, how many investors does it have and does it tell us anything about the wider Chinese economy?
Eight Million Foreigners Are there really eight million foreigners in the UK?
What does 95% less harmful actually mean? E-cigarettes are 95% less harmful than ordinary cigarettes according to last week's report by Public Health England. But what does this mean? The number was arrived at using something called 'multi criteria decision analysis' so how does it work – we ask the man who brought it to the UK, Professor Larry Phillips.
Thinking Like an Engineer Guru Madhavan from America's National Academy of Scientists lifts the lid on how engineers think and argues that those making policy should ask engineers as well as economists about solving social problems.
Sprinters legs It's may seem strange, but world class runners don't move their legs faster than average park runner. That's the claim anyway – is it true and if so what is it that means athletes like Usain Bolt and Justin Gatlin run so fast?
Loop The ancient Greeks saw magic in the geometry of an ellipse and now mathematical writer Alex Bellos has put this to use in a specially designed table for a specially designed game of pool. Premier League predictions If a martian came to earth wanting to know where each team would finish in the English Premier League this season where should he go to get the most accurate prediction?
Diabetes We heard earlier this week that there had been a 60% rise in the number of cases of diabetes in the last ten years. But is there actually some good news in these figures? Odd (attempted) burglaries Police in Leicestershire have been only sending forensic teams to attempted burglaries at houses with even numbers. The papers reported it as a scandal driven by money saving. But is it a scandal or a sensible attempt to work out how to deploy the police's tight resources? Men who pay for sex Do one in 10 men regulalrly pay for sex as a Channel 4 Documentary claimed? Loop The ancient Greeks saw magic in the geometry of an ellipse and now mathematical writer Alex Bellos has but this to use in a specially designed game of pool.
A debate has been raging over the last month about the benefits of mass deworming projects. Hugely popular with the UN and charities, the evidence behind the practice has come under attack. Are the criticisms justified? We hear from the different sides – both economists and epidemiologists and their approach to the numbers.
Football predictions How useful are football predictions and should we always trust the so called experts? The More or Less team look into the idea that predicting where sides will finish in the English football Premier League is best based on how they performed in previous seasons.
Migrant Crisis There is a "swarm" of migrants coming into Europe according to the Prime Minister. Where are they coming from and how many are coming to Calais to try to get into Britain? Are 70 percent of migrants in Calais making it to the UK, as claimed in the Daily Mail? We scrutinise the numbers.
Worm wars A debate has been raging over the last month about the benefits of mass deworming projects. Hugely popular with the UN and charities, the evidence behind the practice has come under attack. Are the criticisms justified? We hear from the different sides – both economists and epidemiologists.
Football How useful are football predictions and should we always trust the so called experts? The More or Less team look into the idea that predicting where sides will finish in the Premier League is best based on how they performed in previous seasons. Also, why is Leicester City the most watched Premier League team in the Outer Hebrides?
Generations Loyal Listener Neil asks: So much is currently reported as the best, worst, least certain 'in a generation' - but just how long is that? We find out..
Following the recent death of wrestler "Rowdy" Roddy Piper we ask if wrestlers are more likely to die young. We explore why that might be and how they compare to athletes from other sports. Plus - is Nigeria the largest consumer of champagne in the world after France?
It has been reported that as many as 20,000 foreign fighters have joined militants in the Middle East and that they make up around 10% of ISIS. Wesley Stephenson and Federica Cocco look at the numbers behind those claims and examine where those fighting in places like Syria and Iraq come from.
Ruth Alexander and the team return to the question of how long you might live. Those born today are expected to live six and a half years longer than those born in 1990 but can this trend continue?
Its ten years since some of the world’s richest nations met in Gleneagles, Scotland. It was there that the G8 agreed to improve trade with developing nations, increase aid, and to wipe the debt of some of the poorest countries. The agreement followed Live 8 where the likes of Bono and Bob Geldof demanded that they ‘Make Poverty History’. Wesley Stephenson and the More or Less team look at what has been achieved during the past decade.
Is it true that Greece failed to collect 89% of taxes in 2010? Tim Harford and the More or Less team look at the numbers behind the tax system and the other statistics used to tell the story of the Greek crisis. Which ones are home truths and which ones are myths.
The film Jurassic World broke the record for the biggest opening weekend taking $511m. It’s a record that has been broken once already this year and most of the top ten films with the biggest opening weekends were released in the last five years. So in an age where the competition is fierce for cinemas why are these films doing so well?
Bees and the British Royal Family For reasons best known to the editors, one British newspaper decided to ask the question: ‘Who brings more to the British economy – the British Royal Family or bees. The answer? Bees of course. More or Less takes a look and finds the methodology is as bee-musing as the initial comparison.
Can your horoscope predict which diseases you’ll develop? And does cricket’s Duckworth-Lewis method need to evolve?
Global Footprint We’re often told that we consume so much that we need one and a half planets. It comes from the Global Footprint Network a think-tank that has pioneered ecological foot-printing but what does that number even mean, and is it helpful? Chocolate makes you thinner We tell the story behind the chocolate experiment designed to deliberately fool the press. Concerned about the amount of pseudo-science surrounding diet and nutrition, John Bohannon and Peter Onneken ran a trial and had the results published in an online journal, sent out a press release. While the results were correct the trial wasn’t very robust but this didn’t stop the story that chocolate made you thinner running in newspapers, magazines and on TV around the world. Peter and John had fooled the press and they made a documentary about it. But the experiment has sparked a debate about whether it was ethical to fool the press in this way and whether the whole project was just self-serving.
It's the last in the series so we're packing in the statistical goodies so that you can go into numerical hibernation until August. We're looking at the street value of drugs: when police claim that they've confiscated hundreds of millions of pounds worth of narcotics, where do those numbers come from? And how has the dark internet changed drug prices? We'll also be looking at claims that those of us who aren't binging on drugs are binging on biscuits instead. Apparently much of the UK and almost the entire population of Ireland is going to be obese before long. But how have such alarming forecasts fared in the past? We're often told that we consume so much that we need one and a half planets - and not just to provide room for all those obese people. What does that number even mean, and is it helpful? And Richard Thaler, the co-author of "Nudge", joins us to talk about the psychology of risk.
Tim Harford asks if the World Cup is to blame for migrant deaths in Qatar. And we solve the fiendish maths exam question that baffled students so much it became a trend on Twitter.
Tim Harford asks if the World Cup is really responsible for migrant deaths in Qatar.
On 23 May, the mathematician John Nash was killed in a car crash, alongside his wife Alicia. The couple were in their 80s. Professor Nash was on his way home from Norway after receiving the prestigious Abel prize for mathematics. He also won the Nobel memorial prize in economics in 1994, and was made famous far beyond academia when he was played by Russell Crowe in the film, A Beautiful Mind. Tim Harford takes a look back at his life with economist Peyton Young who knew Nash well. Tim also looks at how many species of owl there are. A much more difficult question to answer than you would think.
This week: Seven Day NHS. As a commitment appears in the Queen's Speech to introduce a 'truly seven day-a-week NHS' we look at David Cameron's assertion that mortality rates are 16% higher for people admitted on a Sunday over those admitted on a Wednesday. And is seven day working really about saving lives.
John Nash The mathematician and scientist, Nobel Laureate and subject of the film a beautiful mind was killed in car accident earlier this month. We look at why he was so important to game theory.
Productivity? We're told we have a productivity problem in the UK. What is it, how is it measured and why is it so low in the UK compared to other economies. We get an economist to explain the answers to a listener.
What is a generation? A loyal listener has asked how you measure a generation. We ask a sociologist and a demographer.
Animal Slaughter How many animals are killed each day for food? One claim suggested it was half a billion worldwide, which sounds like a lot to us. Are we really pigging out to such an extent? Are we all so hungry we could all eat a horse? Or is this just a load of bull?
Death Row exoneration statistics. Recently it’s been claimed that for every nine people executed in the US, one person has been exonerated. Is this true – and do the statistics vary state to state?
The Police Federation says female drivers aren’t heeding the drink drive warnings. Tim Harford attempts to find out the numbers behind this. Plus: the Rotterdam Effect; Death Row exonerations; pub closures; and owl counting.
How computers are fooled by big numbers. Chris Baraniuk, technology journalist, talks about the simple software bug that has led to explosions, missing space probes, and more. Plus, an update on the two mothers-to-be whose due dates we analysed earlier on in the year.
Are stroke numbers on the rise? This was according to recent headlines. We spoke to Tony Rudd, National Clinical Director for Stroke NHS England. Plus: teachers leaving their jobs; computers being confused by big numbers; and how the UK Election would have been changed by alternate polling methods.
The birth of Princess Charlotte could contribute £1 billion to the British economy, according to some newspapers. True? Plus, the statistics of sex. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Tim Harford and a panel of experts discuss pre-election polls and election fact checking. Plus, is Beeston in Nottinghamshire really the most adulterous town in the country?
Why don’t all the opinion polls give the same results? Plus, would Labour’s plan to introduce a rent cap work, and how boring has this election been? The podcast features a collection of interviews from Radio 4's PM programme.
It was recently reported that the number of women training to become Catholic nuns in Great Britain has reached a 25-year high. What's the long-term trend – are more women becoming nuns? Tim Harford looks at figures from the UK and across the world. Plus, Matt Parker the stand-up mathematician is invited back to the programme to respond to a listener's query about his theory on the best way to find a life partner.
On the eve of the UK's general election, Tim Harford takes a look at what polling data can tell us about predicting elections. Is the number of Catholic nuns on the up? What's the long-term trend – are more women becoming nuns in the UK? Tim Harford looks at the figures. Plus, Matt Parker the stand-up mathematician is invited back to the programme to respond to a listener's query about his theory on the best way to find a life partner.
Are migrants ‘stealing’ jobs; does South Africa have more asylum seekers than any other country in the world? These are some of the claims we explore this week in the midst of some of the worst xenophobic attacks in recent years in South Africa. Plus – could you go to jail for reporting false statistics? You might in Tanzania where they are in the process of bringing in a law to tackle publishing bad figures. We ask whether journalists and researchers should be worried. This edition of More or Less was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Are we witnessing a jobs ‘miracle’? Also under scrutiny - Scotland’s deficit; a mansion tax; and what would a Miliband-SNP pact cost us? The podcast features a collection of interviews from Radio 4's PM programme.
A young listener who needs a liver transplant has received an offer from his brother to act as a living donor. What are the statistics on survival? Plus, is it true that a child goes missing every 90 seconds in the USA? This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Fact-checking the politicians during the election campaign on NHS funding; rail fares and the railways; public spending; debt and the deficit; the Right-to-Buy; and education. The podcast features a collection of interviews from Radio 4's PM programme.
Can you trust the figures given to you by the political parties during the UK's General Election campaign period? We examine and unpick the statistics so you can decide how useful they are. The podcast features a collection of interviews from Radio 4's PM programme. We look at zero hours contracts, non-dom tax status and the broader economy.
Professor Hans Rosling - perhaps best-described as a kind of international development myth buster - delivers his Ignorance Test. Hans asked presenter Ruth Alexander three questions from the test. Can you do any better? This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Is it really true that ability in mathematics and chess are somehow linked? Tim Harford pits his wits against a math-professor-turned-professional-chess-player, John Nunn. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
The Germanwings A320 tragedy, in which 150 people died, is the latest in a series of fatal crashes over the past year. Are more planes crashing, or does it just seem that way? Plus: is the number of penalties Chelsea Football Club have been awarded in the Premier League this season "abnormally low" as they have claimed? This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
A major 30-year study claims to show breastfed babies become more intelligent, higher earning adults. It's not the first time we've heard that breastfeeding raises IQ levels; but is this evidence any more convincing? Ruth Alexander and Hannah Moore explore the details with Dr Stuart Ritchie from The University of Edinburgh. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Babies born in Rwanda are likely to live healthier lives than those in the most deprived 10% of England, according to recent reports. But does the data back this up? And how is "good health" measured across the world? Hannah Moore and Wesley Stephenson explore the numbers with Professor David Gordon from Bristol University’s International Poverty Research Centre. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
"In the next 40 years, humans will need to produce more food that they did in the previous 10,000," claimed a recent edition of The Economist. Ruth Alexander and Hannah Moore look at whether this is true. With the world's population expected to reach 9 billion by 2050, how confident can we be that everyone will have enough to eat? This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Oscar-winner John Legend said that there are more black men "under correctional control" in the United States today than were in slavery in 1850. Is he right? Plus, how many Lego bricks, stacked one on top of the other, would it take to destroy the bottom brick? This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
It’s often said that we should all be aiming to get eight hours of sleep a night but could it actually lead you to an early grave? Ruth Alexander reports. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
How maths can help you find love, and hold on to it. Plus, we hear a collection of our listeners’ favourite statistics. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Tim Harford asks whether claims that keen runners might be damaging their health are really true? And is infidelity among cruise ship passengers rife? This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Tim Harford on claims that keen runners might be damaging their health. Plus, tuition fees; affairs among cruise passengers; UK election safe seats; loyal listeners' favourite statistics.
How to use mathematics to find your life partner. Plus: what are the chances that two friends, given the same due date for their babies' birth, actually do give birth on the same day? This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Fact-checking the Conservatives' employment claims; the price of milk; unhappy teachers; how to use maths to find your life partner; baby due dates; teen pregnancies.
Who is in the world's wealthiest elite, and where do they live? Which are the world's best and worst board-games? Oliver Roeder, a senior writer for FiveThirtyEight, says a statistical analysis can tell us. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Are the majority of hate crimes in the UK directed against Jewish people? Plus: who are the wealthiest 1% and politicians' healthcare connections examined.
In the wake of the Paris killings, an imam in Paris told the BBC that most terrorism victims around the world are Muslim. Is that true? Plus: The death toll of the Boko Haram attack in Baga, Nigeria. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
The Conservatives' plans to achieve a budget surplus by 2019-20 have led to near universal acknowledgment that big reductions in spending would be required. However, David Cameron said this week that government spending would only need to be reduced by 1% per year. So, would Conservative cuts be big or small? Plus: are 95% of terrorism victims Muslim; Nigeria's Baga death toll; the world's best and worst board games; species decline.
Most cancers are caused by "bad luck" according to reports of a new study. But, actually, the study doesn't say that. Tim Harford finds out what the research really tells us. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
The NHS in England has missed its four-hour A&E waiting time target with performance dropping to its lowest level for a decade, it's reported. Tim Harford takes a closer look at the numbers. Plus: do 85 people really own half the world's wealth; bad luck and cancer; beware the statistics which are true but unfair; and the dubious fashion for international rankings.
What is the most important number in the world? Robert Peston tells us and Helen Joyce and Dr Hannah Fry choose their most memorable numbers from 2014. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Tim Harford and guests look back at some of the weird and wonderful numbers of 2014. Featuring contributions from Simon Singh, Sir David Spiegelhalter, Helen Joyce, Nick Robinson, Helen Arney, Pippa Malmgren, Paul Lewis and Carlos Vilalta.
How optimistic are people about the future? The BBC's Evan Davis tells More or Less as the programme looks back at the most interesting and important numbers of 2014. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
What is so special about 39,222 Mexican teachers? In the first of three episodes looking back at 2014, Mexico specialist Professor Carlos Vilalta tells Tim Harford. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Did almost 80% of the males born in the Soviet Union in 1923 not survive World War Two, as has been claimed online? Plus: the problem with China’s economic figures. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Zimbabwe’s budget provided a fascinating insight into the country’s economy last week. Ben Carter looks at what the numbers mean for the future prosperity of Zimbabwe and the challenges the nation faces. The programme hears from David Blair, Chief Foreign Correspondent at The Daily Telegraph, Julian Rademeyer, director of fact checking website Africa Check and Russell Lamberti, author of When Money Destroys Nations.This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
"About one-third of American girls become pregnant as teenagers” a recent article claimed. More or Less asks if this is true and looks at the long-term pregnancy trends in developed countries. Plus: Does 55% of communication really come from body language and gestures, 38% from facial expression and only 7% from words? This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
England captain Wayne Rooney made his 100th appearance last weekend but former England star Chris Waddle claims that it’s easier to win caps now than it was in previous generations. Wesley Stephenson asks whether Waddle is right and how many caps would greats like Bobby Moore, Maradona and Pele have won if they’d played in today’s era. Plus the programme hears from Professor Carlos Vilalta from the University of California San Diego and Steven Dudley from Insight Crime about claims that “98% of homicides in Mexico are unsolved.” An amazing statistic but is it true? This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
The movie Gone Girl claims homicide is a leading cause of death for pregnant women. Ruth Alexander asks Dr Katherine Gold from the University of Michigan if this is true. And can we trust country rankings seen in the growing number of performance indices? We speak to the Economist’s international editor Helen Joyce. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Hans Rosling, global health expert and data visionary, has just arrived in Liberia. He is working as an independent professor at the Health ministry there, as part of the team tracking and tackling Ebola. We talk to him about the latest numbers surrounding the virus. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
The chance of a successful kidney match between two unrelated people has increased significantly in the past 10 years - why? Ruth Alexander speaks to Professor Anthony Warrens, president of the British Transplantation Society. And we find out for our loyal listener how many individuals he will need to create a new race of people. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Are airport screenings for Ebola really an effective way of stopping transmission of the disease? And as the United Nations asks for another $1bn (£625m) in aid we take a look at which governments and charities are rallying to the cause and which are not. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Big data has been enjoying a lot of hype, with promises it will help deliver everything from increased corporate profits to better healthcare. While the potential is certainly there, Tim Harford asks if the hype is blinding us to some basic statistical lessons learned over the past two-hundred years? This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
The coverage of the Living Planet Index and its claim that species populations have dropped 50% in the last 40 years aroused much suspicion among More Or Less listeners. The team looks at what the figure means and how it was calculated. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Why is Berlin the place to break the marathon world record and how long will it be before we witness someone run it in less than two hours?
Two young listeners emailed the programme to ask how we calculate the distance to the sun. We decided to invite them and their parents to More or Less towers where Andrew Pontzen, an astrophysicist at University College London was on hand to explain the answer. A BBC nature documentary stated that there are 14,000 ants to every person on earth, and that were we to weigh all of these ants they would weigh the same as all the people. Can this be true? Tim Harford and Hannah Moore investigate with the help of Francis Ratnieks, professor of apiculture at the University of Sussex.
This week Tim explains the Barnett Formula with a bit of help from Money Box's Paul Lewis. He looks at Ed Balls sleight of hand in his speech to the Labour Party Conference. Is Ed Miliband's promise on NHS funding really worse than the funding increases delivered by Margaret Thatcher? And how do we know how far away is the sun really is?
Is Britain poorer than every US state, except for Mississippi? Journalist Fraser Nelson calculates that’s the case. Tim Harford speaks to economist Chris Dillow about why he’s right. Late last year BBC Trending referred to Eritrea as ‘tiny’. Listeners complained and the complaint was upheld. More or Less talks to Trending producer Mukul Devichand and asks whether any country can rightly be called ‘tiny’.
The chance of a successful kidney match between two unrelated people has increased significantly in the past ten years - why? Tim Harford speaks to Professor Anthony Warrens, president of the British Transplantation Society. Donations to the Manchester Dogs' Home have exceeded £1m in the wake of a fire, which killed more than 50 dogs. The large sum raised caused Today presenter Justin Webb to comment that it often seems easier to raise money for animals than humans who are in need. Is it true that we give more generously to animals? Ben Carter reports. An edition of BBC Four's Wonder of Animals states that there are 14,000 ants to every person on earth, and that were we to weigh all of these ants they would weigh the same as all the people. Can this be true? And a complaint has been held up against a BBC programme for calling Eritrea 'tiny'. Can any country rightly be described this way?
It's a 'fact' beloved of English teachers around the world: that Shakespeare, the greatest playwright in English, also had the greatest vocabulary. But research published earlier this year suggests English teachers might have to look elsewhere to establish the superiority of the Bard - apparently his vocabulary lags behind the best and most famous rappers of the last decades. Is this comparison fair, and if so, does it diminish the Bard's lustre? This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Tim Harford talks to pollsters about how they are trying to gauge the political mood in Scotland, and he analyses Nigel Farage's claim that more than half of Scotland is on benefits. Plus: celebrating Countdown, the longest-running TV quiz show; quantifying malnutrition in the UK; and does the ‘Curse of Strictly Come Dancing’ really exist?
The ALS ice bucket challenge has become a viral phenomenon. People around the world have been dousing themselves in ice-cold water and in the process have raised over $100m for charity. But a true nerd doesn't run with the herd, and Tim Harford is only going to do the challenge if the facts stack up. He investigates whether a viral challenge like this is good for charitable giving overall, and whether there are reasons to be more choosy about the charities we give to. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
The ALS ice bucket challenge viral phenomenon has raised over $100m. Is this good for charitable giving overall, and should we be more choosy about the charities we give to? Plus: is there a 'rising tide' of anti-Semitism in Europe; does Shakespeare have the largest vocabulary, or is the Bard bested by hip hop’s finest; and is the current generation of young people likely to live shorter lives than their parents?
Is it true that humans use just 10% of their brains? It’s the premise of the new film Lucy, in which the brain capacity of Scarlett Johansson’s character increases to dangerous levels. Tim Harford uses considerably more than 10% of his brain to separate the neuro-science facts from the fiction with Professor Sophie Scott. What drives the price of footballers? Tim Harford tries to understand the huge transfer fees with Raffaele Poli from the CIES Football Observatory and football agent Seb Ewen. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Ruth Alexander This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Media reports are suggesting that as many as 12,000 people may have Ebola in West Africa, but experts tell More or Less that's not the case. It's also said that Ebola kills up to 90% of victims, but while that's true of one outbreak, the death rate in other Ebola outbreaks has varied widely. Tim Harford and Ruth Alexander
As the Gaza conflict continues, the fact that there are estimated to be nearly three times as many men as women among the Palestinian civilian casualties has been an issue in the spotlight. Tim Harford and Ruth Alexander look at why men are often over-represented in civilian death tolls, and how the statistics in this conflict are being gathered. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
"Revealed: half a million problem families" reported The Sunday Times. The government's expanding its Troubled Families programme - two years after More or Less found it statistically wanting. Tim Harford discusses the new numbers with BBC Newsnight's Chris Cook. Plus: CEO remuneration; deaths in Gaza; divorce risks and further adventures in the audio presentation of data.
Is anti-semitism on the rise? Ruth Alexander and James Fletcher look at the numbers, as media reports in the wake of the Gaza conflict suggest anti-semitism is a growing problem. Does the evidence support the claims? This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
The cost of the government's new student loan system is rising according to a recent report. Tim Harford investigates whether the rising costs should have been foreseen, and whether the new system will end up costing more than the old one. Plus: mobile phone goldmines in our pockets; paedophilia in the priesthood and from machine learning to deep learning.
What do we know about how deadly the Ebola virus is, and how likely is it that there might be an outbreak of the virus in the United States or Europe?
After three tragic airline incidents in eight days, is flying becoming more dangerous? Wesley Stephenson looks at the statistics behind air travel to find out? And which is the most successful nation in Commonwealth Games history? Australia, Canada, England – not even close. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
The Pope was reported to have said that 2% of Catholic clergy were paedophiles. Is this a big number? Wesley Stephenson looks at the research on the prevalence of paedophilia and how the Catholic clergy compare to the world's population as a whole. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
The Tour de France has reached the mountains, but what does it take to be a good climber and why are the cyclists thin and bony, while sprinters are bigger with bulging muscles? And what is the best body type to win the yellow jersey? Also are 24,000 people really killed by lightning each year? This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
In Roald Dahl’s novel "Charlie and the Chocolate Factory", Charlie Bucket wins a golden ticket to visit Willy Wonka’s factory. But one of our younger More or Less listeners in England wanted to find out what the chances would be of winning one of those Golden Tickets. So we sent maths book author Rob Eastaway to her school in Derby to explain the answer to her class-mates - a must-listen for anyone who struggles to get their head around probability. Also on the programme we look at whether the age of players makes a difference in World Cup football. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Obesity may mean children have a shorter lifespan than their parents, it has been claimed, but is this true? Ruth Alexander looks at the data and explores the 'Obesity Paradox' – the idea that overweight people are less likely to die than those of normal weight. She also questions whether the promise of bonuses in The World Cup has improved performances. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
As we reach the end of the group stage are we really witnessing the greatest world cup ever? Ruth Alexander casts a sceptical eye over the statistics. She also takes a look at the possession stats to see if we’re seeing the death of tiki-taka with the help of Michael Cox from ZonalMarking.net. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
When it comes to aid, what works best – giving people food, shelter, medicine, or just handing over cash and letting them spend it how they like? One group of researchers went to a Kenyan village to try to answer this question and to do so they also employed a new tool - randomised controlled testing. RCTs have long been the gold standard for measuring whether medical drugs work, but could they revolutionise how we measure the impact of aid?
Freakonomics guru Steven Levitt joins us to talk about an unusual experiment – getting people to agree to make major life decisions based on the toss of a coin. Is this really good social science? And what do the results tell us about decision making and happiness? And with 365 days in the year, it feels like a huge coincidence when we meet someone with the same birthday. But you only need 23 people to have a better than even chance that two will share a birthday. This counter-intuitive result is known as the birthday paradox, and the best place to look for proof is the World Cup, where 32 squads of 23 players provide an ideal data-set. Alex Bellos crunches the numbers for us. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
"Religion Makes People More Generous"- according to The Daily Telegraph's interpretation of a new BBC poll on charitable giving. Tim Harford investigates whether there is a link between practising a religion and whether we give. Plus: Big data - the hype says it will help deliver everything from increased corporate profits to better healthcare but are we being blinded to basic statistical lessons learned over the past two hundred years? And it feels like a huge coincidence, but you only need 23 people to have a better than even chance of meeting someone with the same birthday. This is the birthday paradox, and the best place to look for proof is the World Cup, where 32 squads of 23 players provide an ideal data-set. Alex Bellos crunches the numbers for us.
Is the divorce rate in the US state of Maine linked to margarine consumption? It's one of many pairs of statistics featured on the 'Spurious Correlations' website started recently by Tyler Vigen. We talk to him about some of the funniest correlations he's found and the serious point he's trying to make. Plus: World Cup Office Sweepstake strategy. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Scottish independence - yes or no? Which will line your pocket more? The Scottish government says a Yes vote will leave Scots £1,000 each better off; the UK treasury says a No vote means a £1,400 bonus for Scots. More or Less looks at exactly what these claims mean, the key assumptions underlying them, and asks whether either number is likely to be accurate. Plus: the "zombie" statistic that each year 100,000 Christians are martyred around the world; getting people to agree to make major life decisions based on the toss of a coin and World Cup Office Sweepstake strategy.
Did 'rock-star' French economist Thomas Piketty get his numbers wrong? His theories about rising inequality and the increasing importance of capital have been the talk of the economic and political worlds this year. And part of their power has been the massive amount of data Piketty has brought together to back them. But the Financial Times claims to have found significant problems with Piketty's data on wealth. Tim Harford examines the FT's claims and Thomas Piketty's response. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Did 'rock-star' French economist Thomas Piketty get his numbers wrong? His theories about rising inequality and the increasing importance of capital have been the talk of the economic and political worlds this year. And part of their appeal has been the massive amount of data Piketty has brought together to back them. But the Financial Times claims to have found significant problems with Piketty's data on wealth, and says this undermines his claims about rising inequality. Tim Harford examines the FT's claims and Thomas Piketty's response. Plus: is as much land given over to golf courses as housing in England; is racism on the rise in Britain; and should we be concerned that several young men who have died recently were players of the video game Call of Duty?
A famous probability puzzle is discussed involving goats and game shows with German psychologist Gerd Gigerenzer. Is he right to suggest in his new book 'Risk Savvy' that we really don't understand risk and uncertainty? And More or Less listeners weigh in on a problem from last week’s programme - how old will you be before you're guaranteed to celebrate a major, round-number birthday (like 40 or 50) on a weekend?
Are the statistics put forward by UKIP accurate, and are Romanians responsible for more crime than other nationalities? Plus: Gerd Gigerenzer on the famous probability puzzle involving goats and game shows; do 24,000 people die every year from lightning strikes globally; how old will you be before you're guaranteed a round-number birthday on a weekend; and is the divorce rate in the US state of Maine linked to margarine consumption?
Did the number of people around the world living in extreme poverty fall by half a few weeks ago? That's one interpretation of newly released figures for purchasing power parity around the world. The figures compiled by the International Comparison Programme of the World Bank show that in a lot of poorer countries, things are cheaper than we had thought. One development think tank has suggested that if people in these countries can afford to buy more, fewer of them will fall under the World Bank's definition of extreme poverty. We take a look at the argument to see if it stacks up, and whether the World Bank should be lowering its estimates for global poverty in light of the new figures. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Does the government have lots of people chasing the relatively small amounts lost to benefits cheats, while massive amounts of tax evasion are barely investigated? Plus: did global poverty fall by half a few weeks ago; Eurovision data crunching; Willy Wonka's coveted 'Golden Tickets' and is London the 6th biggest French city?
The Man Who Counted, a book of 'Arabic' mathematical tales written by Middle Eastern scholar Malba Tahan was published in Brazil in the 1930s. It became a huge success. Malba Tahan's birthday, May 6th, is now celebrated as Brazil's National Day of Mathematics. But the author wasn't who everybody thought he was. Alex Bellos tells his story. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Food banks are being used by a million people in Britain according to recent newspaper reports. But what do we really know about how many people are using food banks, and does this tell us anything about whether food poverty is increasing? Plus: we remember Gary Becker; Alex Bellos tells the story of Brazil's most famous mathematician; and did a fruit and vegetable seller run the first four minute mile in 1770?
Sir Roger Bannister became the first man to run a mile in under four minutes 60 ago. It's one of the most famous records of the 20th Century, one that the passage of time has shrouded in legend. Was the four-minute mile really considered an 'impossible' physical barrier? Are motivational speakers like Anthony Robbins right to claim that the year after it was broken, the power of positive thinking helped dozens of runners to break the four-minute barrier. More or Less speaks with Sir Roger Bannister to separate myth from reality and find out exactly what propelled him to his famous feat. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
How much British law is made in Brussels - 75% as UKIP say, or 7% as Nick Clegg says? And how might the ideas of an 18th century minister help find the missing flight MH370?
Are 100 million women missing from the world? A listener asks More or Less to explore this powerful statement - "More girls were killed in the last 50 years, precisely because they were girls, than men killed in all the wars in the 20th century." The quote is from a book called 'Half the Sky' by Nicholas D. Kristof and Sheryl WuDunn. It has been used in articles, by UN agencies and on TV to highlight the fatal consequences of discrimination of women based on their sex. But is it true? More or Less looks at the evidence. How can we know if a woman is killed precisely because she is a woman? And how do we know how many men have been killed in war?
Do you have a favourite number - one you love, one you think stands out from all the others? Author Alex Bellos joins us to talk about his quest to find the world's favourite number and discuss whether numbers really can be magical, mystical and memorable, or whether it's all mumbo jumbo. Why are odd numbers so appealing? Which number strikes fear into some people's hearts? And why do lists of questions like these always come in threes? This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Nigeria's bureau of statistics has overhauled the way it calculates the country's GDP figures. With GDP now estimated at around $510 billion, it has surpassed South Africa as the continent's largest economy. But just because it has earned this accolade – does that make it one of the richest? Plus was the President of the World Bank, Jim Yong Kim, right to say recently that Nigeria is one of just five countries that together are home to two-thirds of the world’s extreme poor? We sift through the statistics to find out if economic development is benefitting everyone in Nigeria. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
How many people in the world live in freedom? The BBC's Freedom 2014 season got Tim Harford and the More or Less team wondering about this. It's actually pretty hard to put a number on freedom, so Tim begins by looking at something more quantifiable: how many people live in a democracy? And are people in democracies happier? Tim Harford looks at the numbers with Simon Baptist from the Economist Intelligence Unit. Plus, he examines the price of a cup of coffee, and whether Ruth Alexander can be persuaded to pay for his. This programme was first broadcast live on the BBC World Service on 01 April 2014 from the Media Café at BBC New Broadcasting House in London.
Are there really be 300,000 French people in London and would they really want to leave France for the UK anyway? The Mayor of London, British journalists and commentators have trotted out this "fact" a number of times over the last few years to illustrate just how popular the UK’s capital is with its neighbours across the Channel. It appears that Nicolas Sarkozy may have said it as far back as 2008. Wesley Stephenson and Charlotte McDonald brush off their best French to find out the truth. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Could Bayesian statistics find Flight MH370 from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing? This niche form of statistical modelling has been used to find everything from submarines to missing people. More or Less explores how it was used to locate the wreckage of Air France flight 447 from Brazil to France which disappeared in 2009. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Your questions answered - Do the Maasai in Africa number one million? Is it true that a quarter of Americans do not know the Earth goes round the sun? Are half of Tasmanians innumerate and illiterate? Plus, Do the 85 richest people in the world hold the same amount of wealth as the poorest half? This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Are there 21 million slaves in the world today? Director of 12 Years a Slave, Steve McQueen, made this claim at both the Oscars and the BAFTAs while accepting awards. More or Less looks into the definition of a slave, where they can be found, and explores how they can be counted. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Becoming a pro on practice alone – is that possible? Or do you need innate talent? After reading books promoting the idea, a photographer with no natural talent explains how he is practising for 10,000, hours to become a professional golfer. We hear David Epstein, author of 'The Sports Gene', and Malcolm Gladwell, author of 'Outliers' explain their views on whether you need innate ability. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
The rise and fall of an online epidemic: How studying the spread of infectious diseases suggests the global drinking craze Neknomination will fizzle out. Drinkers post videos of their exploits and nominate others to do the same – but eventually the fad will run out of steam says epidemiologist Adam Kucharski from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. Plus, while politicians debate how much to tax the rich in France and the UK– we look at which countries levy the highest and the lowest rates of income tax for both the wealthy and average worker. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Can economics help you find love? Tim Harford and the team look at the maths behind modern match-making. Economist Michele Belot from the University of Edinburgh explains why women are pickier than men at speed dating events. Plus - how analysing numbers from online dating agencies can help improve the chances of finding a partner: a personal story by Amy Webb, CEO of digital strategists Webbmedia Group. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
In the US, more people are dying from drug overdoses than from road traffic accidents and firearms. As headlines are filled with the news that actor Philip Seymour Hoffman died from an overdose recently, the team takes a look at the number of deaths from drug overdoses of both illegal and prescription drugs in the US and the rest of the world. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
How much do migrants cost or benefit a nation? Plus, planning a wedding - when you have friends and family all around the world and a finite number of places at the venue, how do you work out how many invitations to send? Tim Harford speaks to a couple who thought statistics might have the answer. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Chancellor George Osborne says a 50p tax rate does not bring in much revenue; Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls says it does. Tim Harford takes a look at why it is so hard to pin down how much tax is owed by the wealthy. Plus, have wages risen? How much does it cost to raise a child? Who do you invite to your wedding?
Do two large glasses of wine triple your risk of mouth cancer, as claimed on a health leaflet spotted by a sceptical listener? Tim Harford examines the difficulties of extracting smoking from the equation. Surprising as this may seem, one of the world's best tennis players of all time, Roger Federer, is also the worst ranked player on one scale. The scoring system makes it possible to lose a match despite winning more points, and Federer has lost the highest percentage of these types of games. Tim speaks to sports number-cruncher Ryan Rodenberg about why this might be the case. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
What does a detailed look at immigration statistics tell us about the benefits, or otherwise, of welcoming overseas citizens? Plus, is it true that by the age of 60, more than twice as many women as men are single, and that older men are often living with younger men? Do two large glasses of wine triple your risk of mouth cancer? And which of the world's best tennis players of all time is also the worst-ranked player in one sense. Tim Harford presents.
An apple-a-day will actually keep the doctors away, according to a study in the Christmas edition of the British Medical Journal. It generated headlines around the world. But were the media right to take the story so seriously? Tim interviews one of the study’s authors and critic Paul Marantz. And, mathemagical mind-reading: Jolyon Jenkins reveals the maths behind a classic long-distance mind-reading card trick. Presenter: Tim Harford. Producer: Ruth Alexander. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Tim Harford discovers that health statistics contradict a report which says obesity is worsening. Plus, he fact-checks: armed police shooting statistics; reports that the UK's had the worst winter storms in 20 years; media reports about controversial Channel 4 programme, Benefits Street; a study that says an apple-a-day really keeps the doctor away.
In Iraq, estimates of the death count since the war started 2003 range from 100,000 to about one million. Tim Harford explores why such a range exists and what methods are used to count those killed during war. Meanwhile he discovers that Iraq's population has been growing strongly over the same period. Plus, mathematician and comedian Matt Parker presents his guide to the imperial measurement system. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Most deaths occur in this week of the year - Tim Harford asks why. He also asks: are there really two million millionaire pensioners in the UK, and how many people have died in Iraq since 2003? Plus, mathematician and comedian, Matt Parker, apologises for his previous apology.
A guide to 2013 in numbers - the most informative, interesting and idiosyncratic statistics of the year discussed by More or Less interviewees. Contributors: Dr Pippa Malmgren, President and founder of Principalis Asset Management; Merryn Somerset-Webb, Editor in Chief of MoneyWeek; Helen Arney, Comedian and Presenter. Producer: Ben Carter. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
When the government announced that fees charged by pension providers could be capped, some listeners were sceptical that the benefits could be as great as was being claimed. Tim Harford and Money Box presenter Paul Lewis explain why the numbers do add up. It's claimed that an average of 100,000 Christians die as martyrs every year; Ruth Alexander and Tim Harford fact-check the widely-quoted statistic. Plus, Number Hub mathematician Matt Parker presents his guide to imperial measures; is Britain's railway really Europe's 'most improved'? And when six cyclists died in just two weeks in London, was that a cluster in a random distribution, or a sign that something is systematically wrong with road safety in the capital?
A guide to 2013 in numbers - the most informative, interesting and idiosyncratic statistics of the year discussed by More or Less interviewees. Contributors: David Spiegelhalter, Professor for the Public Understanding of Risk at Cambridge University; Linda Yueh, BBC Chief Business Correspondent; Simon Singh, author of The Simpsons and Their Mathematical Secrets. Producer: Ben Carter. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
A guide to 2013 in numbers - the most informative, interesting and idiosyncratic statistics of the year discussed by More or Less interviewees. Contributors: David Spiegelhalter, Winton professor for the public understanding of risk at Cambridge University; Linda Yueh, BBC chief business correspondent; Simon Singh, author of The Simpsons and Their Mathematical Secrets; Dr Pippa Malmgren, president and founder of Principalis Asset Management; Paul Lewis; presenter of BBC Radio 4's Money Box programme; Dr Hannah Fry, Centre of the Advanced Spatial Analysis at University College London; Merryn Somerset-Webb, editor-in-chief of MoneyWeek; Helen Arney, comedian. Producer: Ben Carter.
It has been reported that global wine supplies are running low. But shops still seem to be well-stocked. So, what is going on? Tim Harford fact-checks the claim. Plus, are the four festive football fixtures as crucial to Premier League teams as many claim? This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
About 80,000 children will wake up homeless on Christmas Day, according to the charity Shelter. What exactly does that mean? Tim Harford explores the statistic. Plus, he fact-checks the news reports of a global wine shortage; and a magician, who exploits the maths of card shuffling, attempts to read his mind. Also, are the four festive football fixtures as crucial to Premier League teams as many claim? And, in tribute to the former BBC economics editor, Stephanie Flanders, listen to what was perhaps her finest broadcasting moment.
It is claimed white South Africans are being systematically killed because of the colour of their skin, but do the crime statistics back this up? No, explains Julian Rademeyer from Africa Check and Johan Burger from the Institute of Security Studies in Pretoria. Presenter: Ruth Alexander. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
The publication of the latest international education league table has created waves around the world. From Shanghai at the top of the table to Peru at the bottom, the PISA rankings create a lot of discussion about the best way to teach children. In some countries the OECD-led ratings are taken so seriously that education policy has been changed to try to improve national performance. But is the league table really as definitive as many people believe? Ruth Alexander looks behind the numbers. Presenter/producer: Ruth Alexander This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Ahead of the 2014 World Cup draw next Friday, we look at world football rankings. How are Switzerland seeded when the Netherlands, Italy and England are not? The answer lies in the playing of friendly games, which can be incredibly unfriendly to your ranking if you play the wrong team at the wrong time. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Ruth Alexander speaks to a statistician at the forefront of cancer research, Professor Terry Speed. He has just been awarded the Prime Minister’s Prize for Science in Australia. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Sachin Ramesh Tendulkar has amassed 15,847 test runs, which is 2,500 more runs than any other batsman. But other ways have been devised to calculate cricketing greatness and the Little Master, as he has become known, does not feature as prominently in a lot of them. More or Less crunches the numbers. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
To what degree do our personal opinions cloud our judgement? Yale University researchers have attempted to detect and measure how our political beliefs affect our ability to make rational decisions. The study suggests that our ability to do maths plummets when we are looking at data which clashes with our worldview. Ruth Alexander and Ben Carter consider Professor Dan Kahan's findings. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
It is claimed an average of 100,000 Christians have died because of their faith every year for the past decade: and that this is an 'unreported catastrophe'. The Vatican has called it a credible number. But is it? Ruth Alexander and Wesley Stephenson report.
Women in their late thirties shouldn’t be as anxious about their prospects of having a baby as is commonly assumed, psychologist Jean Twenge argues. Tim Harford finds fertility experts agree. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Tim Harford tells the story of how two economists who disagree with each other have been jointly awarded the Nobel Prize. Eugene Fama has shown that stock markets are efficient, while Robert Shiller has shown that they're not. Tim interviews both professors about their findings, and this apparent contradiction.
Tim Harford tells the story of the Hawthorne Experiments, one of the most famous social studies of the Twentieth Century. The finding – that workers are more productive if they are given attention - became known as the Hawthorne Effect. And he hears how the original data are now casting doubt on the legendary results. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Has the mosquito killed half the people who have ever lived? Tim Harford assesses the claim. Are 96 elephants a day being killed in Africa? Plus, a return to the subject of left-handers – could it be true that they're more likely to be criminal masterminds? This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Are hundreds of young children visiting A&E because of alcohol? Plus, an update on the Trumptonshire economy. And has the mosquito killed half the people who have ever lived? Tim Harford presents.
"We just shut our eyes to the fact that the world's population is increasing out of control." Is broadcaster and naturalist Sir David Attenborough right about global population projections? And Tim Harford wonders whether it's true that Scotland is home to 20% of the world's redheads. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Tim Harford examines the claim that NHS hospital patients are 45% more likely to die than US ones. Is Sir David Attenborough right that the world's population is increasingly out of control? And are 20% of the world's redheads in Scotland? Plus, the story of the Hawthorne Experiment, one of the most famous studies in industrial history.
'I accept every time I get in my car, there's a 20% chance I could die'. It's a line from the Formula 1 hit film, Rush. Spoken by racing driver Niki Lauda's character. Formula 1 was certainly a dangerous sport during the 1970s, but was it really that dangerous? Tim Harford and Hannah Barnes look at the data. Plus, is it true that it takes 1,000 years for a plastic bag to degrade? It's a popular claim, but More or Less finds the environmental facts about plastic bags are much less certain than that statistic suggests. This edition was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
All pupils at infant schools in England are to get free school lunches from next September, but does the evidence prove free dinners improve results? 'I accept every time I get in my car, there's a 20% chance I could die' - it's a line from the Formula 1 hit film, Rush, but was it really true for 1970s racing drivers? The government wants shops to start charging for plastic bags and the Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg says a plastic bag takes 1,000 years to degrade, but More or Less finds the environmental facts about plastic bags are much less certain than that statistic suggests. And do the health benefits of cycling outweigh the risk of injury? Professor David Spiegelhalter goes through the numbers.
Almost a quarter of men in some Asian countries admit rape, it has been reported. The headlines have been sparked by a UN report, which looks at violence against women in parts of Asia. Are the numbers of rapists really this high? Tim Harford and Ruth Alexander look into the detail of the study. And, “Africa has a drinking problem” - so says Time Magazine. More or Less discovers a more mixed picture. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Psychologist Jean Twenge argues that women in their late thirties shouldn’t be as anxious about their prospects of having a baby as is commonly assumed. Tim Harford finds fertility experts agree. The economy’s turning a corner, the Chancellor says - Tim Harford takes a closer look at the numbers. Plus, sexual violence statistics in Asia; Britain’s ‘small island’ status rebutted; and does Africa really have a ‘drinking problem’? This is the edition of the programme first broadcast on BBC Radio 4.
As global leaders remain divided on whether to carry out a military strike against Syria in response to the apparent use of chemical weapons against its people, Tim Harford looks at the different claims made about how many people have been killed. And, apparently, it's a fact that if there's one thing that's worse for you than drinking, scoffing bacon sandwiches and smoking 80 unfiltered cigarettes a day, it's being left-handed. Left-handers die on average several years earlier than right-handers. Or do they? Tim gets to the bottom of a sinister statistic. This edition was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Tim Harford looks at the different claims made about how many people have been killed in the apparent chemical attack in Syria. The cost of care has forced a million families to sell their homes in the past five years, it’s been reported – but is it true? What can statistics tell us about the safety of Super Puma helicopters? Tim finds out whether left-handers really die nine years earlier than right-handers. And, he assesses the facts behind the claim that 300,000 attempts have been made to access pornographic websites at Parliament in a year.
Is it true that environmental problems will create 200 million migrants? Some politicians and environmentalists warn that this is the case. But migration experts say that the numbers are exaggerated. Tim Harford and Hannah Barnes investigate. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Has the government taken into account the worth of a badger's life in any cost-benefit analysis of the badger cull? It aims to kill 70% of badgers in the two cull zones, but Tim Harford discovers that such precision might be tricky. Plus, have blundering doctors and nurses really killed 13,000 patients in England? Shadow immigration minister Chris Bryant has warned that climate change is going to create 200 million more migrants but, More or Less discovers, migration experts disagree. And, always down with the cool kids, Tim discovers more about this buzz phrase, "big data". Might it be telling the world our darkest secrets?
People who drink more than 4 cups of coffee increase their chances of dying by 50%, it was reported recently. Given everyone’s chance of dying is already 100%, this seems a puzzle. What does the research really say, and how reliable are the findings? Plus, Ruth Alexander interviews economist and Expecting Better author Emily Oster, who used her statistical training to assess the evidence for herself on what effect coffee, alcohol and certain foods have on pregnant women. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Tim Harford speaks to Persi Diaconis, top professor of maths and statistics and legendary magician. The Stanford University professor and co-author of the book "Magical Mathematics" has an enthralling story to tell of how he discovered magic as a boy, and then, as a consequence, a love of maths. And to illustrate how closely maths and magic are linked, Crossing Continents editor and the BBC's in-house magician, Hugh Levinson, performs a mathemagical card trick - see the performance below. This programme was broadcast on the BBC World Service. The interview was recorded in 2011.
If all the world’s population crowded together, where could we all fit? London? Texas? More or Less figures it out, and separates fact from fiction. And, as the soccer season returns, is it possible to measure the effectiveness of a team’s manager? We hear from David Sally, author of The Numbers Game. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
This week we find out what the most visited country in the world is and ask why aren’t they capitalising financially as well as their rivals. Plus we also investigate the complex - and often controversial - web of international extradition treaties. The programme hears from extradition lawyer Anand Doobay, from Peters and Peters, and Ted Bromund, a senior research fellow in Anglo-American relations in Washington DC. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
The winner of this year's Tour de France, British rider Chris Froome, faced numerous questions about doping during the course of his victory. More or Less assesses his performance stats, and asks whether maths can measure whether cycling really has cleaned up its act and whether Froome is simply a victim of the ghosts of cycling's past. Dr Ross Tucker from The Science of Sport website gives us his views and we hear from physiologist Fred Grappe - the only man to see Froome's tour data. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
It’s claimed that Egyptians have taken part in the biggest uprising the world has ever seen. The nationwide demonstrations, which were followed by the removal of the president by the army, were certainly a massive show of people power. But were the crowds really as large as reported? Ruth Alexander assesses the evidence, and finds out why it is so difficult to count a crowd. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
The world of porn is often exaggerated but does it really make up 37% of the web? And after some high profile cases we ask whether the American football league has a crime problem? This edition was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Life expectancy at birth around the world has increased by six years in the past two decades. But can this striking trend continue? Ruth Alexander looks at the data. This edition was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Ruth Alexander examines US Secretary of State, John Kerry’s claim that 40% of the world’s workforce will be in Africa by 2050 and talks to the chief of the United Nations’ population division about its projections for 2050 and 2100. The programme also examines the final scene in The Fast and the Furious 6, the global box office sensation. How long must that runway have been at the end of the film? This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Ruth Alexander examines the claim that every 15 seconds a child dies of hunger. It’s a popular statistic used by celebrities and charity campaigners in support of the Enough Food for Everyone IF campaign. It conjures up the image of millions of young children starving to death. But is this really the case? This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Parents take note – what can numbers reveal about bringing up children? Plus, Tim Harford explore if men really do think about sex every seven seconds. This urban myth will not go away and yet pinning down any evidence proves a challenge for the More or Less team.
A&E waiting times have been making the headlines - Tim Harford takes a look at some of the numbers and puts them into context. Today presenter Evan Davis explains his frustration with finding official statistics online. We explore if men really do think about sex every seven seconds. Plus, what are the chances of having twins?
In the wake of the Boston Marathon bombing and the killing of a British soldier on the streets of Woolwich in London, it emerged that the suspects were known to the security services. But how feasible is it for the authorities to keep track of everyone on their watch list? Tim Harford crunches the numbers, with the help of the former head of the UK intelligence service MI5, Dame Stella Rimington.
After the killing of a British soldier on the streets of Woolwich in London, it emerged that the suspects were known to the security services. But how feasible is it for the authorities to keep track of everyone on their watch list? Tim Harford crunches the numbers, with the help of the former head of MI5, Dame Stella Rimington. Plus: a listener requests a cost-benefit analysis of kidney donations; and Johnny Ball gives the Apprentices a maths lesson.
Tim Harford examines Ryanair’s claim that more than 90% of its flights land on time; and discovers that millions of scientific papers may be incorrect. Producer: Ruth Alexander
Tim Harford inspects the claims the UK Treasury and the Scottish government make about the economics of an independent Scotland; tests Ryanair’s claim that more than 90% of its flights land on time; re-runs the Eurovision song contest, excluding the votes of the former Soviet countries to test whether political alliances are affecting the final results; discovers that millions of scientific papers may be incorrect; and learns more about dog years – and cat years.
As Angelina Jolie announces that an 87% cancer risk has prompted her to have a double mastectomy, Tim Harford assesses the probabilities associated with the disease. Plus, has the UK been hit by a Romanian crime wave?
As Angelina Jolie announces that an 87% cancer risk has prompted her to have a double mastectomy, Tim Harford assesses the probabilities associated with the disease. Plus, has the UK been hit by a Romanian crime wave? Also in the programme: Education Secretary Michael Gove’s use of PR surveys; and why the UK’s poor growth has not had led to the high levels of unemployment that economists would expect.
It's often said that one dog year equals seven human years. But is it true? Tim Harford and Ben Carter unveil the More or Less Dogulator. Plus, 15 distant relatives of England’s King Richard III are petitioning the High Court about where the king should be buried. Some reporting has implied that the famous 15 are almost the only descendants of Richard III who exist. But mathematician Rob Eastaway figures out how many other relatives of Richard III might actually be out there.
Tim Harford makes sense of the numbers being used in the political battle about the UK and its membership of the EU. And, he looks at whether it’s true that more war veterans kill themselves than die in combat ; why you could well be a descendant of Richard III; and what Margaret Thatcher’s funeral really cost. Plus, is it true that one dog year equals seven human years? Tim unveils the More or Less Dogulator.
Birds + windows =? The BBC Quiz show The Unbelievable Truth reckons that more than 2 million birds die crashing into window panes every day in the US. Tim Harford finds this, well, unbelievable. Marcus du Sautoy explores the maths in Mozart's The Magic Flute; a student who uncovered a mistake in a famous economic paper, which has been used to make the case for austerity cuts, explains how he did it.
Birds + windows =? The BBC Quiz show The Unbelievable Truth reckons that more than 2 million birds die crashing into window panes every day in the US. Tim Harford finds this, well, unbelievable. Marcus du Sautoy explores the maths in Mozart's The Magic Flute; a student who uncovered a mistake in a famous economic paper, which has been used to make the case for austerity cuts, explains how he did it; and separating fact from fiction about Margaret Thatcher with a look at the numbers of her time in office.
More or Less creates the Alternative Premier League, with lead scorer goals chalked off to work out whether it’s true that Van Persie’s really single-handedly won Manchester United’s the League? And would Tottenham be challenging for a Champions League spot without Gareth Bale’s goals? And how much bite has Luis Suarez’s contribution given Liverpool’s season? There are surprises, and one player really stands out as player of the season. Can you guess who it is? And, as an Italian Court overturns the acquittal of Amanda Knox and Raffaele Sollecito, accused of killing student Meredith Kercher, mathematician and author of Math on Trial, Coralie Colmez, argues that one judge in the case failed to understand some of the probabilities attached to the forensic evidence – and, in doing so, has missed an opportunity to get to the truth of the matter.
Tim Harford tells the story of the student who uncovered a mistake in a famous economic paper that has been used to make the case for austerity cuts. In 2010, two Harvard economists published an academic study, which showed that when government debt rises above 90% of annual economic output, growth falls significantly. As politicians tried to find answers to the global economic crisis, “Growth in a Time of Debt” by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff was cited by some of the key figures making the case for tough debt-cutting measures in the US and Europe. But, in the course of a class project, student Thomas Herndon and his professors say they have found problems with the Reinhart-Rogoff findings. What does this mean for austerity economics?
Baroness Margaret Thatcher, who has died aged 87, was Britain’s first female prime minister and one of the most influential political figures of the 20th Century. She was a pioneer of free market economics, helping to spread the ideas around the world. But the Iron lady was a divisive figure with passionate supporters and critics. Both hold to strong beliefs about what she did. But what does the data tell us about the many claims made about Mrs Thatcher?
It’s the fourth anniversary of the earthquake which devastated the city of L’Aquila in Italy and which led to the conviction of six scientists and an official who failed to predict the disaster. Scientists and statisticians worldwide were alarmed at the six-year sentences for manslaughter the seven accused received. It was feared the prospect of being put on trial would put off scientists from even trying to communicate risk – a very difficult business. But the risk assessors’ pendulum seems to have swung the other way. Data and alarms about tremors are being issued regularly, triggering school closures and building evacuations. But how useful is this information? Ruth Alexander speaks to Ian Main, professor of seismology and rock physics at Edinburgh University in the UK, who puts the risks into context.
What if a super-villain took control of the world's gold a melted it in to a cube? How big would it be? Wesley Stephenson finds out.
With an avalanche of 2.5 quintillion bytes of data generated daily, could this be used to change our lives and does it have a darker side?
Only last week Ivory Toldson heard the speaker say there are more black men in prison in America than in college. ‘Here we go again’ he thought. Only the week before he had written his second article on why this statistic is not true. This week Ruth Alexander looks at where this ‘fact’ came from and why it is still being used. Also, why the opinion polls got the Kenyan elections wrong.
With the news that a baby has been ‘cured’ of HIV what do the numbers tell us about the epidemic. Ruth Alexander looks at the changes in the way that the disease has been measured. Also the Dow Jones hit an all-time high this week so is it party time for investors?
Kenya votes for its next President on 4th March. The opinion polls show that it is neck-and-neck between the two main candidates but an influential Kenyan political scientists has warned that the polls are wrong. Mutahi Ngunyi’s predicting a win for Uhuru Kenyatta and his Jubilee Coalition because of what he describes as ‘the tyranny of numbers’ - there are simply more registered voters from the ethnic groups that are likely to support Kenyatta than those for his rival Raila Odinga. But will Kenyans vote along ethnic lines – Ruth Alexander finds out. Also, was the Pope the subject of divine intervention when lightning struck St Peter’s Basilica at the Vatican just after he announced he was stepping down? Or was it just a coincidence. More or Less looks at the chances of this occurring.
This week Tim Harford asks how the figure of 1.2 billion Catholics world-wide is calculated. He also tests the claims of the controversial video, 'Muslim Demographics' shown at the Vatican by the Ghanaian Papal candidate Cardinal Peter Turkson.
This week Ruth Alexander looks at Manchester United versus Real Madrid in the last 16 of the Champions League. Real Manager Jose Mourinho says this was the match the "world has been waiting to see". It pitched two of Europe's biggest clubs against each other in what is a supposed to be a money spinner for broadcasters and sponsors alike. But how do we know how big the interest is? Manchester United claim 650 million fans worldwide, but how can we know? Nick Harris of SportingIntelligence.com and Richard Brinkman of KantarMedia help us look at the figures. Also: this round of the Champions League has been a statistical surprise. The rehearsal and the real draw threw up the same fixtures meaning that the same teams were picked to play each other in both draws. Statistician Michael Wallace helps us calculate the chances of this happening.
Canada has stopped distributing its smallest coin –the one cent or the penny. This week Ruth Alexander looks at why some countries get rid of their smallest coins and some just cannot part with them. Also which country has the coin with the smallest monetary value?
This week Ruth Alexander looks at the extraordinary case of Andreas Georgiou the head of the Greek statistics agency, Elstat. He is facing criminal charges for what amounts to statistical treason. It is a story that goes to the heart of the Greek debt crisis, that includes extreme office politics, alleged e-mail hacking and a statistician facing at least five years in prison. We speak to Economists Miranda Xafa and Professor Yanis Vourafafkis as well as Syriza MP Dimitris Tsoukalas. Also: do American football players die earlier than their fellow Americans?
A ‘new’ BMI calculation has been proposed by Oxford Mathematician Professor Nick Trefethen but does it really address the problem with a calculation that is over a century old. Body Mass Index was first calculated over 150 years ago and in recent years has become controversial for its imprecise nature. Ruth Alexander and Wesley Stephenson look at how it has developed and what it really tells us, if anything, about our health.
This week Ruth Alexander is looking at farmer suicides in India. But is it any more prevalent than in any other area of Indian society? Also what is the history behind the Lakh and the Crore in South Asia? It confused one contributor on the farmer suicide story and caused him to get the figures wrong by a factor of 10.
Episode 1 of Tim Harford's new series, Pop Up Economics, in which he tells a live audience short stories about fascinating people and ideas in economics.
Reports this week suggest that we are wasting 50 per cent of our food globally. It comes from a study by the Institute of Mechanical Engineers in the UK. Ruth Alexander discovers why this number is out of date and is likely to be much lower than half. Also are the values on Scrabble tiles correct? They were first assigned in the 1930s. With our changing language do we need to reassess the values. We speak to Joshua Lewis, a post-doctoral researcher at the University of California, San Diego about his new value system ‘Valetta’ and ask John Chew, Co-President of the North American SCRABBLE Players Association, what he thinks.
What does a 'guess the weight of the ox' competition tells us about a bloated and dysfunctional financial system? We find out in the Parable of the Ox written by John Kay of the Financial Times. The tale is told with the help of economics writer James Surowiecki as well as John Kay himself. It also features a brand new composition from the New Radiophonic Workshop.
What does a 'guess the weight of the ox' competition tells us about a bloated and dysfunctional financial system? We find out in the Parable of the Ox written by John Kay of the Financial Times. The tale is told with the help of economics writer James Surowiecki as well as John Kay himself. It also features a brand new composition from the New Radiophonic Workshop.
A special review of the year through the interesting, informative and idiosyncratic numbers of 2012.
A guide to 2012 in numbers - the most informative, interesting and idiosyncratic statistics of the year discussed by More or Less interviewees.
Tim Harford investigates the numbers in the debate on firearms deaths, and discovers the mathematics of juggling. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Tim Harford investigates gun crime statistics in the US. Plus, why death is not always the one hard fact that’s hard to fudge; the average age of first-time buyers; whether chocolate makes you clever; the statistical paradox of road collisions caused by deer; and the maths of juggling. Producer Ruth Alexander
This week: What is ‘rare’? When we say something is rare what do we mean? Lightning strikes which typically kill three people a year in the UK are often described as rare but how do we square that with a condition like motor neurone disease which is also described as rare yet kills 1500 people a year in the UK. Also we speak to Nassim Taleb about his book Anti-fragile.
Why was the estimate, in 2003, for Eastern Europeans coming to the UK so wrong? Which is better when communicating information words or numbers? Nassim Taleb explains anti-fragility And we'll debunk the oft quoted 'you're never more than 6ft from a rat'
Where does Nigeria’s plan to revise its GDP leave our understanding of growth in Sub-saharan Africa? And what is the chance of the Duchess of Cambridge having twins given she has severe morning sickness.
In light of the Royal pregnancy Tim Harford asks what severe morning sickness tells us about the chances of having twins. Yan Wong helps him look at the figures. We disentangle the Chancellor' Autumn Statement and ask: where is the economy really at? As Nigeria prepares to revise its GDP statistics with an expected jump of 40-60%, we ask how reliable are African GDP statistics? Another Daily Telegraph headline comes under scrutiny. And we return to our Lego tower and look at how Lego can be used to teach maths with Eugenia Cheng of Sheffiled University.
Kevin Pietersen has been widely praised as one of the best England batsmen of the current era and possibly of all time. But in the first test match he only scored 19. So can England really not do without him? Also why is Zero an even number?
On More or Less this week Tim Harford looks at three polls carried out to gauge the public’s opinion on press regulation gave vastly different answers despite being carried out by the same polling company. Tim talks to Peter Kellner, President of online polling company YouGov. Would you send Kevin Pietersen out to bat if your life depended on him scoring a century? Have two thirds of millionaires really left the country as claimed by the Daily Telegraph this week? What percentage of drinks might be affected by the introduction of a minimum price for alcohol. And how high could you build a Lego tower before the bottom brick collapses? Ruth Alexander dons her safety goggles to find out?
This is the first in the new series of the programme. There’s a well-established idea that Manchester United get more added time than every other Premier League team. More or Less looks at the numbers behind this so called ‘Fergie Time’. Do Manchester United get more injury time than other top teams when they’re drawing or losing?
This is the first in the new series of the programme. Tim Harford has been busy felling some ash tree statistics. He asks whether the UK could lose 30% of our woodland trees and did the ash die back disease really kill 90% of ash trees in Denmark? Plus, there’s a well established idea that Manchester United get more added time than every other Premier League team. More or Less looks at the numbers behind this so called ‘Fergie Time’. Do Manchester United get more injury time than other top teams when they’re drawing or losing?
There's not an obvious link between chocolate and Nobel prizes, but this did not stop news outlets around the world reporting the amount of chocolate a country consumes influences the number of Nobel prizes they will win. In many cases the scientific study was reported without question or comment. Ruth Alexander asks what this story tells us about the way the media reports scientific studies, and why the correlation between the two might be so strong. Also – it's often said that chopping boards or dishcloths have many more bacteria than toilet seat but is this really true?
This week Ruth Alexander looks at the other winner the US elections. Blogger and pioneer of aggregated polling, Nate Silver, predicted the outcome of the vote in every state one better than 2008. Others who have tried similar methods have also done well. Is this the dawn of a new era of poll prediction or just luck? Also, what effect did Hurricane Sandy have on death rates in places it hit and how did they differ from a normal day.
Conrad Black has claimed that 99.5% of prosecution cases in America end up in convictions. Is it really this high? We try to estimate how this compares to the number of convictions in other parts of the world.
This week six scientists and one ex-government official were sentenced to prison for multiple manslaughter following the L’Aquila earthquake in Italy. Part of the case against them was the falsely reassuring comments they made before the earthquake struck. Will this deter scientists from giving advice in the future?
Professor Al Roth tells Tim Harford about the work for which he has just been awarded the 2012 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences.
Predicting the global population: does anyone really know what’s going to happen?
Nate Silver tells us who will win the 2012 US election - and how he knows.
Only 100 cod are left in the North Sea according to newspapers. Is this the most wrong headline in More or Less history?
US Presidential Election factchecked. Is Mitt Romney right to say that 47% of Americans pay no tax? And how many jobs has President Obama really created?
Ruth Alexander investigates Sweden's high rape rate, and finds out which countries are the surprise leaders of the world kidnap league. Plus, who went home from the London 2012 Games with more medals – Olympians or Paralympians? This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service
Why did the USA top the gold medals league in the Olympics, but not the Paralympics? Ruth Alexander examines the performance numbers of the London 2012 Paralympic Games and discovers which countries are punching above their weight, and which below. And Yan Wong tries to calculate how many opening bars are possible in music. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
‘What’s the number before infinity?’ asks Claudia, aged 4. We challenge Johnny Ball, legendary British TV presenter, to explain. And in celebration of the voice of Sesame Street’s Count von Count, Jerry Nelson, who’s died aged 78, there’s another chance to hear our 2009 interview with the Count, in which he revealed his favourite number: 34,969. Presented by Ruth Alexander, this programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
The Prime Minister of Ethiopia is the fourth African premier to die this year alone. Are African leaders more likely to die in office, than their counterparts elsewhere? Also: does marriage make economic sense?
Given that some countries are richer than others, and some have larger populations, what should the Olympic medal tally really have looked like? Also: numbers help us understand the world. But for Daniel Tammet, author of “Thinking in Numbers". They don't just help him to understand the world - but to be a part of it.
Given that some countries are richer than others, and some have larger populations, what should the Olympic medal tally really have looked like? Also: numbers help us understand the world. But for Daniel Tammet, author of “Thinking in Numbers". They don't just help him to understand the world - but to be a part of it.
Last week Knight Capital lost a lot of money very quickly. It was the latest chapter in the story of something called ‘high frequency trading’. Investors have always valued being the first with the news. But high frequency trading is different: algorithms execute automatic trades, conducted by computers, at astonishing speeds. We ask: is the rapid growth of high frequency trading progress, or – as some think – a threat to the stability of the entire financial system?
Last week Knight Capital lost a lot of money very quickly. It was the latest chapter in the story of something called ‘high frequency trading’. Investors have always valued being the first with the news. But high frequency trading is different: algorithms execute automatic trades, conducted by computers, at astonishing speeds. We ask: is the rapid growth of high frequency trading progress, or – as some think – a threat to the stability of the entire financial system?
There was controversy this week after Ye Shiwen, a young Chinese swimmer, won the 400 metre individual medley in fine style. A US swimming coach called the performance "disturbing", implying that she may have cheated. More or Less investigates the numbers and finds there's no statistical smoking gun.
There was controversy this week after Ye Shiwen, a young Chinese swimmer, won the 400 metre individual medley in fine style. A US swimming coach called the performance "disturbing", implying that she may have cheated. More or Less investigates the numbers and finds there's no statistical smoking gun.
Last week's mass-shooting at a cinema in Colorado has - not surprisingly - intensified America's bitter and long-running argument with itself about gun control. The argument is political and highly partisan. But it is also practical: would tighter gun laws actually lead to fewer gun deaths? You might think it's obvious that they would. But it seems the evidence isn't quite that clear. Also: how have Olympians changed in the last century?
Last week's mass-shooting at a cinema in Colorado has - not suprisingly - intensified America's bitter and long-running argument with itself about gun control. The argument is political and highly partisan. But it is also practical: would tighter gun laws actually lead to fewer gun deaths? You might think it's obvious that they would. But it seems the evidence isn't quite that clear. Also: how have Olympians changed in the last century?
The Tour de France, we are told, has finally cleaned up its act and clamped down on the use of performance-enhancing drugs. But if it has, should we expect today’s drug-free riders to be slower than their drug-fuelled forebears? Can statistics tell us whether the Tour de France really is cleaner than it was? Also in the programme: does when you retire influence when you die?
The Tour de France, we are told, has finally cleaned up its act and clamped down on the use of performance-enhancing drugs. But if it has, should we expect today’s drug-free riders to be slower than their drug-fuelled forebears? Can statistics tell us whether the Tour de France really is cleaner than it was? Also in the programme: does when you retire influence when you die?
How much damage did messing with Libor really do to the financial system? And we investigate the claim made by a leading charity that a million British children are "starving".
How much damage did messing with Libor really do to the financial system? After all, most financial trades are two way bets – and for every winner, there is a loser.
Do residents of the tiny micronesian island of Palau really smoke more cannabis, and drink more beer, than anyone else?
What is the highest-earning film ever if you adjust for inflation? And are birthdays killing us?
How fat could the global population become? Plus, Angela Saini considers whether statistics could settle the disputed result of the world title fight between boxers Manny Pacquiao and Timothy Bradley. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Is the likelihood of bumping into your boss on holiday greater than you think? Angela Saini and the More or Less team assess the probabilities of some of life's great coincidences. This edition of More or Less was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Tim Harford interviews Daniel Kahneman, a psychologist who won the Nobel Prize in Economics. The author of Thinking, Fast and Slow describes the common mistakes people make with statistics.
How many images of Queen Elizabeth II have ever been created? And is Facebook really worth more than twice as much as every company on the Nigerian Stock Exchange?
Is there any evidence to support the Beecroft Review's recommended changes to employment law? Plus: hard-working Greeks, infidelity, and Ben Goldacre on publication bias.
It’s a very commonly-held belief that men are less faithful than women But it takes two to tango. So can this be mathematically possible? And we answer a cry for help from an Australian listener who wants to be “a bit more average”.
Earlier in the year we found out that Greeks put in more working hours than Germans. But the Germans are more efficient. So that got us thinking: who works the longest hours in the world?
Troubled families, nursing numbers and the mathematical consequences of unneutered cats.
Would it be cheaper to send every Greek rail passenger by taxi instead? This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Executive pay, chess and trouble on the Greek railway.
Are we witnessing a grand economic experiment being played out between Europe, trying to cut its way out of trouble, and the United States, trying to spend its way to redemption? Plus, we investigate the height of North Koreans. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Are we witnessing a grand economic experiment playing out between Britain and the United States? How long have travellers been waiting to get through immigration at Heathrow? Plus, are you going to destroy the economy this bank holiday weekend?
The Midas Formula - In this week's More or Less: The story of Black-Scholes, the equation that transformed Wall Street – and the arguments over whether it made the world a better place, or helped cause the financial mess we have all been dealing with for the past five years. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Rain and drought in numbers, the formula which changed Wall Street and then the world forever - and why Conservative MPs used to be taller than their Labour counterparts.
Is the rate of species extinction exaggerated - or even unknowable? Producer: Richard Knight This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
We investigate the height of North Koreans, the width of police officers and rate of species extinction. Producer: Richard Knight
Are there really more Porsche Cayenne owners in Greece than taxpayers earning over 50,000 euros? Can there really be 30,000 chauffeur driven cars for the exclusive use of Italian politicians? Would it really be cheaper to send everyone by taxi than train in Greece and is youth unemployment in Spain really 50%? Ruth Alexander and Wesley Stephenson take a very close look at some widely reported Eurostats to see whether they stand up to scrutiny for out this week's More or Less. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
The Royal Mail says UK stamp prices are still among the best value in Europe, despite an imminent steep price rise. Tim Harford finds out whether this is true, and compares the price of postal services around the world. Plus, he finds out how, after being invented by Indian mathematicians, modern numbers became established in the ancient Arab world and then journeyed on to Europe in what was essentially the first maths textbook ever written, "Liber Abaci". Its author was Leonardo of Pisa, better known as Fibonacci. Tim speaks to Keith Devlin, author of The Man of Numbers, to find out more. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Do Manchester United and other leading clubs like Real Madrid and Barcelona benefit from biased refereeing decisions when they play in front of their home crowd? It’s a widely-held view, but Tim Harford challenges it with a look at the penalty statistics. Plus, he meets Hans Rosling of Gapminder at the Skoll World Forum: if you want to understand the world you’re living in, and how it will be different to the world your children and grandchildren will live in, listen to this interview. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
If there were perfect income equality worldwide, and everybody earned the same amount of money, how much would they earn? And what is the average employee wage across the world? Tim Harford answers both these questions. Plus, he attempts to rank the world’s top military forces. This edition of the programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Eating an extra portion of red meat every day is associated with an increased risk of death, says a new study. But what does this mean? A risk expert works it out for Tim Harford. Plus, which are the world’s largest employers? This edition of More or less was broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Tim Harford explains why the technology giant Apple is not bigger than Poland, as media reports have claimed. And he scrutinises the claim that the Millennium Development Goal on safe drinking water has been achieved ahead of schedule. The World Health Organisation, which along with Unicef announced that the target had been met, concedes that the numbers are not actually that certain. This programme was originally broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Tim Harford assesses how global poverty is measured, as the World Bank releases the latest figures on the number of people living on less than a dollar a day. What progress has been made, and how useful a benchmark is this “dollar a day” global poverty line? This programme was originally broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Fifty-five per cent of Syrians do not think their leader President Assad should resign, according to media reports of an opinion poll. It’s a striking number, given the bloody violence that has broken out in Syria. But Tim Harford discovers that, on closer inspection, the statistic is not what it seems. Plus, which European country works the longest hours? You might be surprised. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World service.
Can you measure your popularity – or that of anyone or anything – by the number of results that an internet search generates? Tim Harford points the finger at lazy journalists. Plus, a professor of economics assesses the accuracy of a groundhog’s weather forecasts, made famous by the Hollywood film Groundhog Day. This programme was originally broadcast on the BBC World Service.
How do you measure a famine? Following the UN’s recent announcement that famine conditions have ended in Somalia, More or Less explores what the definition of a famine is – and how definite a definition it is. Tim Harford hears from Grainne Moloney, head of the UN’s Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit and Professor Stephen Devereux from the Institute of Development Studies. Also in the programme: Muhammed Ali’s boxing trainer, Angelo Dundee, was arguably one of sport’s greatest behind-the-scenes figures. But did he really deliberately tear Ali’s boxing glove to win the star crucial recovery time in his 1963 fight against Sir Henry Cooper? Tim Harford gets out his stopwatch for a simple exercise in counting. This programme was originally broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Tim Harford investigates one of the most popular questions from More or Less listeners: “Are there more people alive today than have ever lived?” It is a zombie statistic that every time it is laid to rest it rises again. He also looks at whether science fiction writer Arthur C Clarke was right when he suggested that behind every living person are 30 ghosts. He also investigates the strange story of Michelle Obama’s shopping trip to a lingerie store in New York. Can she really have spent $50,000 on underwear? This programme was originally broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Which are the world’s biggest cities, and what are their populations? Two simple questions that we discover are surprisingly difficult to answer. Plus, has the world got heavier or lighter since the industrial revolution? It’s a question posed by a More or Less listener that got us wondering, too. Dr Chris Smith, part of a group of Cambridge University researchers, known as the Naked Scientists, reckons he’s worked out the answer. This programme was originally broadcast on the BBC World Service.
A four-year bet about global warming between two scientists is settled. In 2008, after there had been no new record for the global average temperature set since 1998, David Whitehouse and James Annan disagreed over whether there would be a new record by 2011. As the UK Meteorological Office publishes the figures for the past year, presenter Tim Harford brings the two scientists together. Who has won, and does the victory tell us anything about global warming? Plus, Peter Stott from the Met Office tells us how the world’s temperature is measured. Also in the programme: sports statistician Robert Mastrodomenico attempts to predict the results of the 2012 Africa Cup of Nations football tournament. Will his numerical analysis impress the BBC’s African football expert Farayi Mungazi? This programme was originally broadcast on the BBC World Service.
President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela thinks the US may have developed a secret technology to give him and other Latin American leaders cancer. He said the fact that several presidents have had cancer is "difficult to explain using the law of probabilities". Is he right? Tim Harford speaks to Dr Eduardo Cazap, president of the Union of International Cancer Control. Plus, it is often said that there are more Malawian doctors in the British city of Manchester than there are in Malawi. Can this be true? And if professionals emigrate is it always bad news for the country they leave? The programme hears from John Lwanda, a Malawian doctor based in the UK; and Robert Guest, author of "Borderless Economics". This programme was originally broadcast on the BBC World Service.
High Speed rail - Tim Harford speaks to railway consultant Chris Stokes and Alison Munro from HS2 Ltd. He investigates the different measures of the rise in executive pay with Steve Tatton from Income Data Services and Sarah Wilson from research group Manifest. And resolves a four year-old bet on climate change between climate scientist James Annan and astrophysicist David Whitehouse and Wesley Stephenson looks behind the figures for youth unemployment in Spain.
Tim Harford tackles the use of statistics in court, the average rise in rail fares, infinity and resolves another marital dispute about probability.
A guide to interesting, informative or just plain idiosyncratic numbers of the year. Plus, does probability really exist? Contributors: David Spiegelhalter, Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk at Cambridge University; Owen Spottiswoode, Fullfact.org; Tracey Brown from Sense about Science; Jil Matheson, UK Statistics Authority; George Monbiot; Sir Mark Walport, Director of the Wellcome Trust; Money Box presenter Paul Lewis; Sports Statistician, Robert Mastrodomenico; Dr Linda Yeuh Economics Correspondent at Bloomberg; Stand up Mathematician Matt Parker
Tim Harford on income inequality in the UK, and elsewhere. He speaks to Professor Sir Tony Atkinson of Oxford University; Stewart Lansley, author of 'The Cost of Inequality'; and Professor Donald Boudreaux of George Mason University. Also, David Spiegelhalter, the Winton Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk at Cambridge University explains why he took on what could be his riskiest venture to date - appearing on BBC One's Winter Wipeout. Plus, the magic of maths with magician and Stanford maths professor Persi Diaconis.
In the week scientists at the Large Hadron Collider announced that the most coveted prize in particle physics - the Higgs boson - may have been found, Tim Harford hears that the statistical significance is being mis-reported. Plus, the difficulties of cornering a market (especially when the commodity is a 1980s plastic doll). And, Tim Harford talks to author Keith Devlin about how Fibonacci revolutionised trade by introducing medieval businessmen to simple arithmetic.
Tim Harford on National Literacy Trust figures and the maths of supermarket price wars. Plus, he continues to scrutinise the popular statistics of the Eurozone crisis - do Italian tax payers really shell out 2 billion euros a year for their politicians to be chauffeured around? And, what are the odds of cracking six double-yolk eggs in a row?
In the week of a nationwide strike over pension changes, Tim Harford explains how the government can make public sector pensions sound generous, at the same time the unions can make them sound small. And he finds out why a Greek national statistician is under suspicion of committing crimes against numbers. Plus, is it really true that there are more Porsche Cayenne owners than tax payers declaring an income of more than 55,000 euros in Greece? Also, are affordable homes affordable? And can the whole world fit on the Isle of Wight? Tim tries to cram his studio full of Radio 4 presenters and producers to test the theory.
In a change to our usual format, we are podcasting Matthew Taylor's "Brain Culture" series. The former Number 10 strategy head looks at politics and mind control, asking if new knowledge about the human brain will allow us to make better choices or leave us open to ever more manipulation .
In a change to the usual format, we are podcasting Matthew Taylor's "Brain Culture" series. Matthew Taylor’s series “Brain Culture” continues. The former Number 10 head of strategy asks whether Britain’s education system will be changed by new insights into how human brains learn and retain knowledge.
In a change to the usual format, we are podcasting Matthew Taylor’s series “Brain Culture”. He explores how neuroscience will change society, asking how the justice system will change now that we can scan criminal brains.
In More or Less this week: Government waste, a logic puzzle, the statistics of spying, Olympic economics and the Janitor problem.
In this week's More or Less: a Euro debt odyssey, the placebo effect and 70 years of social surveys.
On this week's More or Less: Scottish independence, mobile phones and cancer, and is Tendulkar the greatest sportsman?
More or Less has the latest on salt, 'zero tolerance' policing, and how to predict the adult height of growing children.
In More or Less this week: riots, debt, disability benefit and when to buy a lotto ticket.
Tim Harford and the More or Less team unpick more numbers in the news. This week: US debt, NHS funding and the "27 club".
Investigating the public sector pay premium, statins and the 'decline effect'.
More or Less looks at child poverty, climate refugees and Sir Henry Cooper's greatest moment.
In More or Less this week: a cornucopia of wedding-related numbers. And AV explained.
Tim Harford and team look at GDP, school standards and the results of 'The Other Census'.
Tim Harford and the team examine examine tuition fees, drugs testing and inflation.
In More or Less this week: youth unemployment, Trumpton and social mobility.
Tim Harford is back with a new series of More or Less, and the numbers behind the news. Are the cuts "small"? And we introduce "The Other Census".
In this three-part series Michael Blastland lays out the history of economic ideas to understand why economics goes wrong and whether it can ever go entirely right. In the third and final programme, 'Monsters', Michael investigates another view of economics: that it is the story of people, how they think and behave.
'More or Less' creator Michael Blastland goes to Chicago to explore a machine-like view of the economy in the second part of 'The Story of Economics'.
More or Less creator Michael Blastland lays out the history of economic ideas to understand why economics goes wrong and whether it can ever go entirely right. In the first programme of a three part series, Michael travels to Athens and the site of Aristotle's Lyceum - where economics as a discipline began.
The Government says Britain's health care standards have fallen behind those of our European neighbours. And World Health Organisation figures support his claim. But do those numbers tell the whole story?
We look at street grooming, examine the new bank taxes, revisit Ambridge in the wake of Loxleygate and ask just how many guys there are named Mo(hammed).
More or Less examines this week's claims and counter-claims about VAT, exposes some seriously sloppy reporting and - finally - reveals the truth about Jack the "psychic" monkey.
Tim Harford and the More or Less team explore 2010 in numbers. Happy New Year to all our listeners.
Boom. Bust. Bah humbug. Tim Harford narrates 'A More or Less Christmas Carol' in which British Bank plc boss Ebenezer Scrooge is visited by the ghosts of banking past, present and future. Will he heed their warnings?
Local government budgets are being cut. More or Less looks at how the pie is sliced and finds everything depends on Wokingham (yes, really). Plus: we take a look at inflation and consult the magic More or Less monkey.
We look at the numbers behind the increase in the cap on undergraduate tuition fees in England. Are the changes fair and progressive? Are they dropping future students into a deep hole of debt? Or are they both?
Tim Harford and the More or Less team examine the micromort measure of risk and official statistics on sexual identity.
Tim Harford and the More or Less team examine more numbers in the news. This week: Claiming benefits has been described by the Chancellor as - for some - a "lifestyle choice". What does the evidence tell us about how incentives work in the welfare system?; The numbers of some of Britain's best-loved birds are declining. Fast. Many think cats are to blame. Are they right?; Why the Prime Minister's salary has become a convenient unit of measurement; And we bring you the results of our mathematical attempt to level the playing field at this year's Great North Run half marathon.
Who earns more: private or public employees? And are your trousers flattering you?
More or Less looks at how maths is taught in schools today and it asks what the population of the world be if WWI had never happened.
How reliable are life expectancy figures? Can cycling ever be safer than driving? And, what can maths tell us about guerilla insurgencies?
En liten tjänst av I'm With Friends. Finns även på engelska.