There’s this idea that technology is characterized by path dependency: once you start going down one technology trajectory, you kind of get locked in and it’s hard to switch to another, possibly better trajectory. That can happen for lots of reasons, but one possibility is that it’s something about the nature of knowledge itself. The more you know, the more you can learn: knowledge begets more knowledge. So whichever technology trajectory we start on becomes the one we know the most about, and therefore the one it makes most sense to stick with.
One line of evidence about this comes from dynamics of patenting.
This podcast is an audio read through of the (initial version of the) article "Patent Stocks" and Technological Inertia, published on New Things Under the Sun.
Articles Mentioned:
Aghion, Philippe, Antoine Dechezleprêtre, David Hemous, Ralf Martin, and John Van Reenen. 2016. Carbon taxes, path dependency, and directed technical change: Evidence from the auto industry. Journal of Political Economy 124(1): 1-51. https://doi.org/10.1086/684581
Rozendaal, Rik, and Herman R.J. Vollebergh. 2021. Policy-Induced Innovation in Clean Technologies: Evidence from the Car Market. CESifo working paper no. 9422. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3969578
Noailly, Joëlle and Roger Smeets. 2015. Directing technical change from fossil-fuel to renewable energy innovation: An application using firm-level data. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 72: 15-37. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2015.03.004
Popp, David. 2002. Induced Innovation and Energy Prices. American Economic Review 92(1): 160-180. https://doi.org/10.1257/000282802760015658
Porter, Michael E., and Scott Stern. 2000. Measuring the “ideas” production function: evidence from international patent output. NBER Working Paper 7891. https://doi.org/10.3386/w7891
Lazkano, Itziar, Linda Nøstbakken, and Martino Pelli. 2017. From fossil fuels to renewables: the role of electricity storage. European Economic Review 99: 113-129. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2017.03.013
Park, Gwangman, and Yongtae Park. 2006. On the measurement of patent stock as knowledge indicators. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 73(7): 793-812. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2005.09.006
Clancy, Matthew S. 2017. Combinations of technology in US patents, 1926-2009: a weakening base for future innovation? Economics of Innovation and New Technology 27(8): 770-785. https://doi.org/10.1080/10438599.2017.1410007