EP 282- 2022 FIDE Candidates Preview Double Episode with GM Robert Hess and Tai Pruce Zimmerman of the Chess by the Numbers Blog

The wait is almost over! With the 2022 FIDE Candidates Tournament beginning June 17, we present one last deep dive on this chess-history defining tournament. The winner of this tournament is slated to play GM Magnus Carlsen in the 2023 World Championship match if it takes place. I am joined by two separate guests to discuss the players and what we can expect. First up is GM Robert Hess. Robert, of course, is an insightful and popular commentator who will be traveling to Madrid to cover the event live with his Chess.com team. Robert and I discuss each player individually, as Robert shares his reflections on what he has observed from many years of observing these players up close. Robert’s other appearance on the podcast was nearly 5 years ago, so after an hour of FIDE Candidates talk, we spend some time catching up on other chess-related matters. Following Robert, I am joined by Tai Pruce Zimmerman of the “Chess by the Numbers” blog. I always enjoy getting Tai’s insights, which are primarily derived from an Elo-rating based model. Who is statistically most likely to win? How do Tai’s numerical assessments differ from those of other models and the betting markets? Tune in to hear some fascinating Candidates discussion!

You can find brief timestamps below, and more detailed ones on the podcast website here.

FIDE Candidates info here

01:00- Intro with details on the Candidates format and Schedule. 

Prior GM Robert Hess appearance 

05:45- Perpetual Chess is brought to you in part by Chessable.com you can find the free “Endgame Strategy” Lesson from GM Sam Shankland here:

https://www.chessable.com/course/115673

7:45- How does Candidates prep compare for Robert and his announcing team compare to prep for an event like the World Championship?

13:00- What can Robert share about GM Jan-Krystof Duda? 

16:45- GM Teimour Radjabov 

20:00- GM Hikaru Nakamura 

29:30- GM Ian Nepomniatchtchi 

35:00- GM Richard Rapport

41:00- GM Fabiano Caruana 

47:15- GM Alireza Firouzja 

55:45- GM Ding Liren 

1:07:00- How does Robert approach commentating on an event like the ongoing “I am not a GM” tourney on Chess.com?

1:15:15- Robert’s OTB exploits! How did it feel to draw GM Viswanathan Anand in 2018 and defeating GM Sam Shankland in 2019. 

1:24:45- Global Chess Championship more info here 

1:26:30- How does Robert work on his commentary?

1:35:30- Robert’s Book Recs:

1:36:30- Does Robert get recognized in public much? 

1:42:45- What is Robert looking forward to most about the Candidates?

1:46:00- Perpetual Chess is brought to you in part by Aimchess.com. Aimchess’ algorithm reviews your games and gives you actionable advice of how to improve your game. Check it out for free and if you choose to subscribe you can use the code Perpetual30 to save 30%. 

1:48:00- Tai Pruce Zimmerman of the Chess by the Numbers blog joins to give an analytical perspective on the FIDE Candidates. We begin by discussing what differentiates the Candidates from other tournaments. 

1:56:15- What do the betting markets and Tai’s model say the probabilities are for each player?

Mentioned: BWIN odds here, Smarter Chess Probabilities here 

2:06:00- Which player does Tai think the betting market undervalues? 

Thanks so much to Tai for joining us again. Be sure to subscribe to his blog and support his work via his website. Follow him on Twitter here.  

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