EP 375- FIDE Candidates Mega Preview with GM Rafael Leitão, Chess by the Numbers, and On the Queenside

The FIDE Candidates Tournament begins on April 4 in Toronto, Canada, and I could not be more excited to see who gets to challenge for the FIDE World Championship. As is tradition on Perpetual Chess, we have a few great guests joining to help discuss the action. First up is 7-time Brazilian champion & Correspondence GM, Rafael Leitão. In addition to a vast resume as a player, Rafael regularly annotates top-level games for Chess.com news coverage. Reviewing these games in detail on a daily basis gives Rafael unique insights into the tendencies of the world’s top players. Rafael and I discuss what to watch for in each player’s performance, fun facts, and what opening choices we might see from each player.

 Following Rafael, I am joined by Tai Pruce Zimmerman, a/k/a Chess by the Numbers. Tai shares and discusses the win probability of both the open and the women’s candidates, and we also compare the output of Tai’s probabilistic model to the betting markets. Last but not least, I am joined by “On the Queenside,” who has built a large following on Twitter and Lichess for covering Women’s Chess in detail. We discuss whether it is a good idea to run the Women’s Candidates concurrently with the open, and which players we are excited to watch. As always, the timestamps of the guests, as well as the topics and players discussed can be found below.

0:00- Thanks to our sponsor, Chessable.com. New courses include Introduction to Chess Calculation, and GM Ganguly’s Lifetime Repertoires: Sidelines and Flank Openings for Black 

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0:01- Format notes on the FIDE Candidates, including tournament schedule, tiebreak rules, and the Perpetual Chess’ plan for covering the event. 

Mentioned: More info on the Candidates here, including tiebreak info:

More from Chess.com here

09:30- GM Rafael Rafael Leitão joins me for a detailed Candidates discussion!

Mentioned: Rafael’s prior interview was episode 147. 

15:00- Can Ian Nepomniatchtchi “threepeat” at the Candidate? 

21:50- GM Nijat Abasov.

25:30- GM Fabiano Caruana

Mentioned: Leitao-Caruana 2010 

30:00- GM Praggnanandhaa Rameshababu

32:30- Hikaru Nakamura

Mentioned: GM Daniel King’s YT Candidates Previews:

Gelfand-Nakamura 2010 

37:45- Alireza Firouzja

44:00- GM Vidit Gujirathi

47:00- GM Gukesh Dommaraju

51:30- Who does Rafael predict will win? 

Mentioned: Bwin’s betting market on the Candidates:

54:00- Rafael shares his thoughts on the Women’s Candidates. More info here: 

59:00- Rafael discusses his own chess career, and what is new from our prior interview. This includes a compelling argument for Chess960. 

Mentioned:GM Luis Paolo Supi,  Supi-Carlsen 2020 

1:09:00- Thanks to Rafael for joining me! Here is how to keep up with him:

Youtube- https://www.youtube.com/@rafaelleitaogm

X/Twitter- https://twitter.com/rafpig?lang=en

Website- https://rafaelleitao.com/articles/

1:10:00- Tai Pruce Zimmerman aka Chess by the Numbers rejoins me to talk Candidates statistiics! 

 Mentioned: Betting market here

1:31:00- What does Tai’s model say on who is most likely to win the Woman’s Candidates?

1:41:00- Thanks to Tai for joining me! Follow him on X here:

1:42;00- On the Queenside joins. Is it a good idea to have the Women’s Candidates run concurrently with the Open Candidates for the first time? 

Mentioned: On the Queenside’s preview of the Reykjavik Open

1:50:00- Be sure to follow On the Queenside on Twitter/X and on Lichess!

Twitter/X

LiChess

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