Plain English with Derek Thompson

Last week, UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson was shot to death outside a hotel in Manhattan by a young man motivated by rage at the insurance industry. His rage is clearly felt widely. In the aftermath of the killing, many people seemed to delight in the man’s assassination. Their reaction was a grotesque illustration of something real: There is an enormous amount of anger and frustration about the state of American health care. And there ought to be. The U.S. is the most expensive health care system in the world, while for many people it delivers bad care at exorbitant prices.

But anger is not always a signal of accuracy. And while some of the most popular reasons to be furious at American health care are based on truth, many are based on misunderstandings and myths—especially about the insurance system.

This week, I wanted to present a calm and informed conversation with a health care expert to walk me through what I consider the biggest health care questions of the moment. Why are American health care costs so high? How much are insurers to blame? How do other countries handle health care differently? What can we learn from them? And what, if anything, should make us optimistic about the future of American health care?

Today we have two guests. First we have Jonathan Gruber, an economics professor at MIT and a key architect of several health care laws, including the 2006 Massachusetts health care reform and the Affordable Care Act. Jon walks me through the key drivers of health inflation and American anger at the health care system. The second, David Cutler, is an economics professor at Harvard who served as senior health care adviser for Barack Obama; he helps us think comparatively about the weaknesses and strengths of the U.S. health system and what reforms could help Americans live longer and healthier lives.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].

Host: Derek Thompson

Guests: Jonathan Gruber and David Cutler

Producer: Devon Baroldi

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The crypto industry seems poised for a new golden age. But what exactly does that mean? Who would benefit? And, oh by the way, what does this technology do other than serve as a set of assets to bet to the moon?

I have lots of questions about the state of crypto right now. Last week, Bitcoin traded above $100,000 for the first time in history. Its price has skyrocketed since Donald Trump’s win, as a wave of investors bet that the next four years will mark a new renaissance. And this isn’t just a time for optimism. It’s also a time for recrimination. In the last few weeks, several major tech figures, including the venture capitalist Marc Andreessen, have condemned democrats for what they describe as an illegal war on crypto.

Austin Campbell is finance vet, an adjunct professor at Columbia Business School, and the founder of Zero Knowledge Consulting. Today, we talk about the purported war on crypto, starting with the origins of "debanking" practices under Obama; we talk about why crypto now seems like a majority-republican technology in an industry that has historically been democratic; we talk about the biggest use cases of crypto around the world; and Austin tells me why he thinks many people in the industry still aren't thinking clearly about the future of finance.

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Austin Campbell

Producer: Mike Wargon

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In the last decade, several major findings in social psychology have turned out to be hogwash—or, worse, even fraud. This has become widely known as psychology's "replication crisis." Perhaps you have heard of power poses—based on a study finding that subjects reported stronger “feelings of power” after they posed, say, with their hands on their hips for several minutes. But that finding did not replicate. Or perhaps you have heard of ego depletion—the more famous assertion that, when people make a bunch of decisions, it exhausts their ability to make future decisions. Again: did not replicate.

“There’s a thought that’s haunted me for years,” social psychologist Adam Mastroianni has written. “We’re doing all this research in psychology, but are we learning anything? We run these studies and publish these papers, and then what? The stack of papers just gets taller? I’ve never come up with satisfying answers. But now I finally understand why.”

Today’s episode features two interviews. First, I talk to Adam about his big-picture critique of his own field: how psychology too often fails as a science, and what it can do better. Second, we speak with journalist Dan Engber from The Atlantic, who has been reporting on a billowing scandal in psychology that has enveloped several business school stars—and raised important questions about the field. What is psychology for? What would progress in psychology mean? And how can this field—which might be the discipline I follow than any other in academia—become more of a science?

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].

Host: Derek Thompson

Guests: Adam Mastroianni and Daniel Engber

Producer: Devon Baroldi

Links:

“Is psychology going to Cincinnati?” by Adam Mastroianni 

https://www.experimental-history.com/p/is-psychology-going-to-cincinnati

"I’m so sorry for psychology’s loss, whatever it is" by Adam Mastroianni 

https://www.experimental-history.com/p/im-so-sorry-for-psychologys-loss#footnote-anchor-3-136506668

“The Business-School Scandal That Just Keeps Getting Bigger” by Daniel Engber 

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2025/01/business-school-fraud-research/680669/

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Emily Oster, professor of economics at Brown University, joins the show to talk about Robert F. Kennedy Jr., his theories about fluoride and vaccines, and how the media and science community should treat the most controversial topics. This is a new age of science and information, where trust seems to be shifting from institutions like the FDA and CDC to individuals like RFK Jr. and Oster, and I consider her a model of public health communication.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Emily Oster

Producer: Devon Baroldi

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What would a world of self-driven cars look like? How would it change shopping, transportation, and life, more broadly?

A decade ago, many people were asking these questions, as it looked like a boom in autonomous vehicles was imminent. But in the last few years, other technologies—crypto, the metaverse, AI—have stolen the spotlight.

Meanwhile, self-driving cars have quietly become a huge deal in the U.S. Waymo One, a commercial ride-hailing service that spun off from Google, has been rolled out in San Francisco, Phoenix, Los Angeles, and Austin. Every week, Waymo makes 150,000 autonomous rides. Tesla is also competing to build a robo-taxi service and to develop self-driving capabilities.

There are two reasons why I’ve always been fascinated by self-driving cars: The first is safety. There are roughly 40,000 vehicular deaths in America every year and 6 million accidents. It’s appropriate to be concerned about the safety of computer-driven vehicles. But what about the safety of human-driven vehicles? A technology with the potential to save thousands of lives and prevent millions of accidents is a huge deal.

Second, the automobile was arguably the most important technology of the 20th century. The invention of the internal combustion engine transformed agriculture, personal transportation, and supply chains. It made the suburbs possible. It changed the spatial geometry of the city. It expanded demand for fossil fuels and created some of the most valuable companies in the world. The reinvention of last century’s most important technology is a massive, massive story. And the truth is, I’m not sure that today’s news media—a category in which I include myself—has done an adequate job representing just how game-changing self-driving technology at scale could be.

Today’s guest is Timothy Lee, author of the Substack publication Understanding AI. Today I asked him to help me understand self-driving cars—their technology, their industry, their possibility, and their implications.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Timothy Lee

Producer: Devon Baroldi

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Derek shares his big-picture theory for Trump's victory. Then, Republican pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson explains how Trump shifted practically the entire electorate to the right.

Links:

Derek's article that inspired his open: https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/11/donald-trump-covid-election/680559/

The Washington Post voter shift map:  https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2024/11/05/compare-2020-2024-presidential-results/

The graveyard of the incumbents:

https://www.ft.com/content/e8ac09ea-c300-4249-af7d-109003afb893

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Kristen Soltis Anderson

Producer: Devon Renaldo

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Today’s guest (our final preelection guest) is David Wasserman, political analyst with the Cook Political Report, who also helps out with the NBC decision desk. There are dozens, maybe hundreds, of people whose job on election night is to help Americans understand when we can safely call specific districts and states for Congress, Senate, or the presidency. However, I truly don’t think I know anybody whose calls I trust more than David's. And the even deeper compliment is that David is perhaps the most trusted election night consigliere among all the other people I trust. So, when I wanted to put together a show on how to watch election night like a pro, I’m grateful that the pro of pros said yes.

With a week to go, this election has attracted several theories about which trends will determine the outcome. We’ve done shows on the rightward shift among men, especially young men; the politics of working class decline; the possibility that we’ll see non-white voters move into the Trump column while college-educated white voters move into the Harris column. But these are all theories. It’s going to take a while to know if they’re actually true. When polls close at 7 p.m., you’re going to see some people dive into exit polls and incomplete county-by-county returns, claiming that they can see trends and predict the outcome. But as Wasserman tells us, this is not wise. Exit polls aren’t special. They’re just another poll. And their non-specialness is important to note in an age when so many people are voting early and therefore aren’t counted among surveys of election-day voters.

Meanwhile, different states have different rules for when they can start counting early and mailed ballots. These rules dramatically and sometimes confusingly shift our understanding of election night. Pennsylvania cannot start counting mail-in or early votes until Election Day morning. This often leads to slower reporting of mail-in results, while Election Day votes are usually counted and reported first. Last election Republicans were more likely to vote on Election Day while Democrats were more likely to vote by mail. If the same thing happens in 2024, what we should expect to see is a red mirage followed by a blue wave—as right-leaning ballots are counted first and left-leaning ballots are counted second. This is not a conspiracy. It’s just state law.

In the state of Georgia, it’s the opposite. Georgia and other Sunbelt states can begin processing and counting mail-in and early votes before Election Day, which means what you might see a blue mirage followed by a red wave.

One conspiracy theory that’s already starting to attract attention is that any state that looks like it’s voting for Trump that sees a blue wave is a sign of voter fraud. But there’s nothing fraudulent about the state laws that determine the orders in which votes are counted.

For this reason, Wasserman says, it’s tantalizing but misleading to draw strong conclusions about the election from incomplete county results. If you want to understand where the election is going, if you want to watch the returns, like a good faith pro, the better solution is to wait for full county results in key bellwether counties like Nash County, North Carolina. Understanding what those key, predictive, canary-in-a-coalmine counties are is the focus of this show.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: David Wasserman

Producer: Devon Baroldi

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Today, a close look at the history of a Pennsylvania town and how that history contains within it the story of the 2024 election. In September, Donald Trump claimed that the city of Charleroi, Pennsylvania, was being overrun by immigrants who brought violence, gangs, and economic destruction. Last month, The Atlantic's George Packer went to Charleroi to report on what's actually going on there, and how the issues most important to Charleroi—nativism, immigration, change, working-class decline, and corporate greed—are also the deciding issues of the 2024 election.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: George Packer

Producer: Devon Baroldi

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My favorite sort of social phenomenon is something that seems normal to modern eyes that is actually incredibly unusual. We take it for granted that every presidential election is a nail-biter these days. But this era of close elections is deeply strange. We used to have blowouts all the time. In 1964, 1972, and 1984, LBJ, Nixon, and Reagan, respectively, won by more than 15 points. This never happens anymore. Since the hanging-ballot mess of 2000, we’ve had historically close contests again and again: in 2004, 2012, 2016, and 2020. This year seems almost certain to continue the trend. National polls have almost never been this tight in the closing days of a presidential contest.

In an era of shifting coalitions and weak parties, why is every modern presidential election so close? Today’s guest is Matt Yglesias, the author of the ‘Slow Boring’ newsletter, and a return guest on this show. We talk about how the era of close elections has, importantly, coincided with an era of racial realignment. We propose several theories for why every election is a nail-biter in the 21st century. And we explain why “it’s the internet, stupid” doesn’t work to explain this particular trend.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Matthew Yglesias

Producer: Devon Baroldi

LINKS:

• https://www.slowboring.com/p/the-era-of-close-elections
• https://www.slowboring.com/p/the-electorate-is-becoming-less-racially

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In 1900, the average US life expectancy was 47 years old. That's the current age of Tom Brady, Ryan Reynolds, and Shakira. But extraordinary advances in medicine and public health have surged lifespans in the US and throughout the world. The average American currently lives to about 79 years old. How long can this progress continue? As we have gotten so much better at allowing people to live to old age, how much progress have we made at confronting this ultimate boss of longevity? Today’s guest is Professor S. Jay Olshansky, from the school of public health at the University of Illinois at Chicago. We talk about progress and stasis in the most important science project in human history: how to increase human life.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: S. Jay Olshansky

Producer: Devon Baroldi

LINKS:

• "Implausibility of radical life extension in humans in the twenty-first century" [link]
• "If Humans Were Built to Last," an illustration of what people would look like if they were optimally designed to live to 100 [link]
• "Child and Infant Mortality," from Our World in Data [link]

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Today: the state of men and what's really happening in the gender divide in politics. Many young men are falling behind economically and socially at the same time that men and women are coming apart politically. What's really happening here? Richard Reeves, president of the American Institute for Boys and Men, joins the show to talk about the state of men, young men, working class men, the gender divide in the electorate, why Democrats seem to have a guy problem, and why Republicans seem to have a message that is resonating, especially for young men who are falling behind.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Richard Reeves

Producer: Devon Baroldi

LINKS:

- “America’s Young Men Are Falling Even Further Behind"

- The Tenuous Attachments of Working Class Men

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Since October 7, 2023, many have feared that the conflict between Israel and Hamas would bloom into a wider war that would consume the Middle East. Today, we are dangerously close to that reality. In just the last month, Israel carried out several attacks against the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, which, like Hamas, is backed by Iran. Israel is widely believed to be behind the remote detonation of pagers and communications devices that were implanted with explosives, killing and injuring scores of Hezbollah members. Israel assassinated the Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah, and systematically killed much of its other leadership. It has launched a ground invasion of Lebanon—its first in nearly 20 years. It has bombed the Iranian consulate in Syria. Iran retaliated this week by launching nearly 200 missiles at Israel. In the Middle East, no stranger to warfare, this may be the most treacherous moment for interstate conflict since the Arab-Israeli War of 1967. Natan Sachs, director of the Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings, is today's guest. We begin by visiting each theater of the Middle East conflict: Lebanon, Gaza, Iran. We talk about Israel’s strategy, Gaza’s humanitarian crisis, and Iran’s next steps. We talk about the odds that today’s conflict will tip over into a full-blown regional war—and what that war might look like. And we talk about the United States, what the Biden White House is trying to achieve through private and public channels, and what levers Biden has left to influence the Middle East in his final weeks in office.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Natan Sachs

Producer: Devon Baroldi

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Derek shares his biggest frustrations about the 2024 election, like the lack of a policy debate and blind spots in news coverage and polling analysis. Then he welcomes Jamil Zaki to the show: a professor of psychology at Stanford University and the director of the Stanford Social Neuroscience Lab. Zaki is the author of ‘Hope for Cynics,’ a new book that explores tension at the heart of human affairs. On one hand, social cooperation is the basis of human civilization. And yet cynicism—a baseline aversion to social cooperation and assumption that most people are greedy, selfish, and dishonest—is also core to the human experience. We are constantly violating the secret of our own success by assuming the worst in others, and Professor Zaki explains why.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Jamil Zaki

Producer: Devon Baroldi

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Today, a mystery about what some people consider the most important position in sports: What the hell is going on with the NFL quarterback? We are two weeks into the 2024 football season. And as several commentators have pointed out, the quarterback position just doesn’t look right. Passing yards per game are lower than any other year in the 21st century. Passing touchdowns have fallen off a cliff. The average completed pass is shorter than any other year in the recorded history of the sport. Today’s guest is Robert Mays, the host of 'The Athletic Football Show.' We talk about the evolution of the quarterback position, why NFL passing is down, how NFL defense got so smart, and where this is all headed.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Robert Mays

Producer: Devon Baroldi

Links:

Pro Football Reference NFL History Page

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/NFL/index.htm

Mike Sando: QBs Are Younger Than Any Time in 60 Years: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/4880988/2023/09/21/justin-fields-nfl-young-quarterbacks-trend/

Bill Barnwell on the evolution of the QB:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/41217438/how-running-qbs-changed-nfl-dual-threat-history-value-scramble-stats-future

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We may be on the cusp of a revolution in medicine, thanks to tools like AlphaFold, the technology for Google DeepMind, which helps scientists predict and see the shapes of thousands of proteins. How does AlphaFold work, what difference is it actually making in science, and what kinds of mysteries could it unlock? Today’s guest is Pushmeet Kohli. He is the head of AI for science at DeepMind. We talk about proteins, why they matter, why they’re challenging, how AlphaFold could accelerate and expand the hunt for miracle drugs, and what tools like AlphaFold tell us about the mystery of the cosmos and our efforts to understand it.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Pushmeet Kohli

Producer: Devon Baroldi

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Are conspiracy theories more popular than ever? Are Americans more conspiratorial than ever? Are conservatives more conspiratorial than liberals? Joseph Uscinski is a political scientist at the University of Miami and one of the nation's preeminent experts on the psychology of conspiratorial thinking and the history of conspiracy theories in America. He has some counterintuitive and surprising answers to these questions. Today, he and Derek discuss—and debate—the psychology and politics of modern conspiratorial thinking.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Joseph Uscinski

Producer: Devon Baroldi

Links

Uscinski's research page: https://people.miami.edu/profile/60b5fb062f4f266afb6739ec21657c74

"The psychological and political correlates of conspiracy theory beliefs" https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-022-25617-0

"Fake news on Twitter during the 2016 U.S. presidential election" https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30679368/

"Right and left, partisanship predicts (asymmetric) vulnerability to misinformation" https://misinforeview.hks.harvard.edu/article/right-and-left-partisanship-predicts-asymmetric-vulnerability-to-misinformation/

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Exercise is a conundrum. On the one hand, physical activity is clearly one of the best interventions for preventing physical disease and mental suffering. On the other hand, scientists don't really understand how it works inside the body or what exactly running, jumping, lifting, and squatting do to our tissues and organs. That's finally changing. Euan Ashley, a professor of genomics and cardiovascular medicine and the chair of the Stanford Department of Medicine, is a member of a new research consortium that studies rats and humans to understand the molecular changes induced by exercise. Today we talk about the earliest findings from this new consortium, how exercise might have disparate effects in men versus women, why nature’s most effective cardiovascular intervention also seems to be nature’s most effective mental health intervention, as well as whether it will one day be possible to identify the molecular basis of exercise precisely enough to develop exercise pills that give us the benefits of working out without the sweat.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Euan Ashley

Producer: Devon Baroldi

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Derek offers a short but sweet review of the Democratic National Convention, the science of post-convention bounces, and the reality of the 2024 polling: It's still a toss-up.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].

Host: Derek Thompson

Producer: Devon Baroldi

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Today's episode is about how we change our minds—and what political science tells us about the best ways to change the minds of voters. Our guest is David Broockman, a political scientist at the University of California Berkeley, and the coauthor, with Josh Kalla, of a new essay in Slow Boring on Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, and the most persuasive arguments and messages to decide this election. Today, David and I talk about the four biggest myths of political persuasion—and in the process, David will attempt to do something that I’m not entirely sure is possible: He’ll try to change my mind about how persuasion works.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: David Broockman

Producer: Devon Baroldi

Links:

"What's Better Than Calling Donald Trump 'Weird'?" https://www.slowboring.com/p/whats-better-than-calling-trump-weird

"Consuming cross-cutting media causes learning and moderates attitudes: A field experiment with Fox News viewers" https://osf.io/preprints/osf/jrw26

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Laurie Santos is a superstar in the crowded field of happiness research. She is a cognitive scientist at Yale University whose course on the psychology of happiness was the most popular class in the school's history. She is the host of the immensely popular ‘Happiness Lab’ podcast. Today, she and Derek talk about her favorite lessons from modern happiness research, lessons on striving and anxiety from existential philosophy, our relationship to time, the science of cognitive time travel, temporal mind tricks to reduce anxiety like "psychological distancing," and more.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Dr. Laurie Santos

Producer: Devon Baroldi

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In a special emergency-ish episode, Bloomberg's Conor Sen joins the show to discuss a buffet of economic and financial fears, including a disappointing jobs report, a meltdown in global stocks, the "carry trade" heard round the world, the smartest criticisms of (and smartest defense of) the Federal Reserve's decision not to raise interest rates, and more.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Conor Sen

Producer: Devon Baroldi

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Derek offers his thoughts on Kamala Harris, the new 2024 reality, and gender polarization in the "boys vs. girls" election. Then we talk about the spam apocalypse. The average American receives one spam call or text every single day, adding up to tens of billions of robocalls and texts per year. Derek welcomes Joshua Bercu, the executive director of Industry Traceback Group, to talk about the history and technology behind robocalls and texts, why it’s been so hard to hold robocallers accountable, how spammers do that thing where they make a call look like it’s coming from a local friend, how we've managed to crush certain kinds of robocalls, and what it would take to finally win the war on spam.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Joshua Bercu

Producer: Devon Baroldi

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It is a general rule of thumb that richer societies are happier societies. This is true across countries, as GDP and life satisfaction are highly correlated. And it is true across time. Countries get happier as they get richer. But there is a caveat to this general principle. Which is that the United States is not nearly as contented as its gross national income would predict.

In fact, the U.S. is, as we’ve covered on this show, in a bit of a gloom rut. It has now been nearly two decades since a majority of Americans have told pollsters at NBC that they’re satisfied with the way things are going. This hope drought has no precedent in modern polling. NBC itself reported that “We have never before seen this level of sustained pessimism in the 30-year-plus history of the poll.”

Polls show that faith in government, business, and other institutions is in free fall—especially among conservatives. But they also show that conservatives are generally happy with their life and in their relationships. If conservatives have happiness without trust, American progressives seem to have trust without happiness.

In a recent paper called “The Politics of Depression,” published by the journal Social Science & Medicine–Mental Health, the epidemiologist Catherine Gimbrone and several coauthors showed that young progressives are significantly more depressed than conservatives, have been for years, and the gap is growing over time. Other studies, including the General Social Survey, show the same.

Why are young progressives so sad? Today’s guest is Greg Lukianoff, the president and CEO of the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression (FIRE) and coauthor of ‘The Coddling of the American Mind.’ He has written intelligently, critically, and emotionally about happiness, depression, politics, and progressivism.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Greg Lukianoff

Producer: Devon Baroldi

Links:

"People in Richer Countries Tend to Be Happier" https://ourworldindata.org/happiness-and-life-satisfaction

"The Politics of Depression" by Catherine Gimbrone et al https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666560321000438

"How to Understand the Well-Being Gap Between Liberals and Conservatives" by Musa al-Gharbi https://americanaffairsjournal.org/2023/03/how-to-understand-the-well-being-gap-between-liberals-and-conservatives/

"The Coddling of the American Mind" The Atlantic essay by Jonathan Haidt and Greg Lukianoff https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2015/09/the-coddling-of-the-american-mind/399356/

‘The Coddling of the American Mind’ [book] https://www.amazon.com/Coddling-American-Mind-Intentions-Generation/dp/0735224897

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On today's episode: the state of American politics and the future of America's economy. Derek discusses a media myth in the aftermath of the failed Trump assassination attempt and reviews three basic truths about Joe Biden's doomed presidential bid. Then, Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee joins the show to answer Derek's blunt question, "Are you going to cut rates next month?" Plus, they discuss the Federal Reserve, how it works, how he sees the economy, whether high rates are constraining housing production, and whether Trump's signature economic policy idea—high tariffs in an age of global inflation—would help the U.S. economy. (TLDR: No.)

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Austan Goolsbee

Producer: Devon Baroldi

Links:

“Stop Pretending You Know How This Will End,” Derek Thompson, The Atlantic

“Hit or Miss? The Effect of Assassinations on Institutions and War,” by Benjamin Jones and Benjamin Olken

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Skyrocketing rates, shrinking affordability: The U.S. housing market is a mess. It's also a bit of a mystery. Why are prices still sky-high, even though many measures of demand are weak? If the supply of new homes is nearing a historic high, how come the inventory for existing homes is close to a historic low? Today's guests agree that this is one of the weirdest housing markets in recent history. Mike Simonsen, president founder of Altos Research, and Lance Lambert, cofounder and editor-in-chief of Residential Club, join to talk about the state of the U.S. housing market—what makes it ugly, what makes it weird, and what would have to happen to make it better.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].

Host: Derek Thompson

Guests: Mike Simonsen & Lance Lambert

Producer: Devon Baroldi

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Joe Biden's disastrous debate performance has created a crisis for the Democratic Party and a set of interlocking debates about whether the White House—or the White House media—covered up his cognitive decline. The Atlantic’s Mark Leibovich, who first wrote that Biden should drop out of the race two years ago, joins to discuss Biden campaign strategy and the hypocrisy of many Democrats who refused to state publicly what they knew privately: that Biden's age-related blunders were getting more serious. Then we are joined by the busiest man in media, Alex Thompson, political correspondent of Axios, who has absolutely dominated this story in the past week. As a group, we talk about Biden’s age, the Democratic campaign strategy—Project "Bubble Wrap"—that is blowing up in their faces, the failures of the political press and Democratic operatives to see what’s in front of their noses, and the chances that Kamala Harris will imminently replace Joe Biden as the Democratic presidential nominee.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].

Host: Derek Thompson

Guests: Mark Leibovich & Alex Thompson

Producer: Devon Baroldi

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In the first five decades of the 20th century, the number of serial killers in the U.S. remained at a very low level. But between the 1950s and 1960s, the number of serial killers tripled. Between the 1960s and 1970s, they tripled again. In the 1980s and 1990s, they kept rising. And then, just as suddenly as the serial killer emerged as an American phenomenon, he (and it really is mostly a he) nearly disappeared. What happened to the American serial killers? And what does this phenomenon say about American society, criminology, and technology?

Today's guest is James Alan Fox, the Lipman Family Professor of Criminology, Law, and Public Policy at Northeastern University. The author of 18 books, he has been publishing on this subject since before 1974, the year that the FBI coined the term "serial killer."

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: James Alan Fox

Producer: Devon Baroldi

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We've done several podcasts on America's declining fertility rate, and why South Korea has the lowest birthrate in the world. But we've never done an episode on the subject quite like this one.

Today we go deep on the psychology of having children and not having children, and the cultural revolution behind the decline in birthrates in America and the rest of the world. The way we think about dating, marriage, kids, and family is changing radically in a very short period of time. And we are just beginning to reckon with the causes and consequences of that shift. In the new book, 'What Are Children For,' Anastasia Berg and Rachel Wiseman say a new "parenthood ambivalence" is sweeping the world. In today's show, they persuade Derek that this issue is about more than the economic trends he tends to focus on when he discusses this issue.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].

Host: Derek Thompson

Guests: Anastasia Berg & Rachel Wiseman

Producer: Devon Baroldi

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Today’s episode is about the science of breathing—from the evolution of our sinuses and palate, to the downsides of mouth breathing and the upsides of nasal breathing, to specific breath techniques that you can use to reduce stress and fall asleep fast. Our guest is James Nestor, the author of the bestselling book 'Breath: The New Science of a Lost Art.'

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: James Nestor

Producer: Devon Baroldi

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What do most people not understand about the news media? I would say two things. First: The most important bias in news media is not left or right. It’s a bias toward negativity and catastrophe. Second: That while it would be convenient to blame the news media exclusively for this bad-news bias, the truth is that the audience is just about equally to blame. The news has never had better tools for understanding exactly what gets people to click on stories. That means what people see in the news is more responsive than ever to aggregate audience behavior. If you hate the news, what you are hating is in part a collective reflection in the mirror. If you put these two facts together, you get something like this: The most important bias in the news media is the bias that news makers and news audiences share toward negativity and catastrophe. Jerusalem Demsas, a staff writer at The Atlantic and the host of the podcast Good on Paper, joins to discuss a prominent fake fact in the news — and the psychological and media forces that promote fake facts and catastrophic negativity in the press.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Jerusalem Demsas

Producer: Devon Baroldi

Links:

"The Maternal-Mortality Crisis That Didn’t Happen" by Jerusalem Demsas https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/05/no-more-women-arent-dying-in-childbirth/678486/

The 2001 paper "Bad Is Stronger Than Good" https://assets.csom.umn.edu/assets/71516.pdf

Derek on the complex science of masks and mask mandates https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2023/03/covid-lab-leak-mask-mandates-science-media-information/673263/

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Plastic is a life-saving technology. Plastic medical equipment like disposable syringes and IV bags reduce deaths in hospitals. Plastic packaging keeps food fresh longer. Plastic parts in cars make cars lighter, which could make them less deadly in accidents. My bike helmet is plastic. My smoke detector is plastic. Safety gates for babies: plastic.

But in the last few months, several studies have demonstrated the astonishing ubiquity of microplastics and the potential danger they pose to our bodies—especially our endocrine and cardiovascular systems. Today’s guest is Philip Landrigan, an epidemiologist and pediatrician, and a professor in the biology department of Boston College. We start with the basics: What is plastic? How does plastic become microplastic or nanoplastic? How do these things get into our bodies? Once they’re in our bodies what do they do? How sure are we that they’re a contributor to disease? What do the latest studies tell us—and what should we ask of future research? Along the way we discuss why plastic recycling doesn’t actually work, the small steps we can take to limit our exposure, and the big steps that governments can take to limit our risk.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Philip Landrigan

Producer: Devon Baroldi

Links:

"Plastics, Fossil Carbon, and the Heart" by Philip J. Landrigan in NEJM https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2400683

"Tiny plastic shards found in human testicles, study says" https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/21/health/microplastics-testicles-study-wellness/index.html

Consumer Reports: "The Plastic Chemicals Hiding in Your Food" https://www.consumerreports.org/health/food-contaminants/the-plastic-chemicals-hiding-in-your-food-a7358224781/#:~:text=BEVERAGES,in%20this%20chart

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In an age of cults, sports are the last gasp of the monoculture—the last remnant of the 20th century mainstream still standing. Even so, the new NBA media rights deal is astonishing. At a time when basketball ratings are in steady decline, the NBA is on the verge of signing a $70-plus billion sports rights deal that would grow its annual media rights revenue by almost 3x. How does that make any sense? (Try asking your boss for a tripled raise when your performance declines 2 percent a year and tell us how that goes.) And what does this madness tell us about the state of sports and TV economics in the age of cults and cord-cutting? John Ourand, sports correspondent with Puck News, explains.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: John Ourand

Producer: Devon Baroldi

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The news media is very good at focusing on points of disagreement in our politics. Wherever Democrats and Republicans are butting heads, that's where we reliably find news coverage. When right and left disagree about trans rights, or the immigration border bill, or abortion, or January 6, or the indictments over January 6, you can bet that news coverage will be ample. But journalists like me sometimes have a harder time seeing through the lurid partisanship to focus on where both sides agree. It's these places, these subtle areas of agreements, these points of quiet fusion, where policy is actually made, where things actually happen.

I’m offering you that wind up because I think something extraordinary is happening in American economics today. Something deeper than the headlines about lingering inflation. High grocery prices. Prohibitive interest rates. Stalled out housing markets.

Quietly, and sometimes not so quietly, a new consensus is building in Washington concerning technology, and trade, and growth. It has three main parts: first, there is a newly aggressive approach to subsidizing the construction of new infrastructure, clean energy, and advanced computer chips that are integral to AI and military; second, there are new tariffs, or new taxes on certain imports, especially from China to protect US companies in these industries; and third, there are restrictions on Chinese technologies in the U.S., like Huawei and TikTok. Subsidies, tariffs, and restrictions are the new rage in Washington.

Today’s guest is David Leonhardt, a longtime writer, columnist, and editor at The New York Times who currently runs their morning newsletter, The Morning. he is the author of the book Ours Was the Shining Future.

We talk about the history of the old economic consensus, the death of Reaganism, the demise of the free trade standard, the strengths and weaknesses of the new economic consensus, what could go right in this new paradigm, and what could go horribly wrong.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: David Leonhardt

Producer: Devon Baroldi

Links:

David Leonhardt on neopopulism: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/19/briefing/centrism-washington-neopopulism.html

Greg Ip on the three-legged stool of new industrial policy: https://www.wsj.com/economy/the-u-s-finally-has-a-strategy-to-compete-with-china-will-it-work-ce4ea6cf

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The game of basketball has changed dramatically in the last 40 years. In the early 1990s, Michael Jordan said that 3-point shooting was "something I don’t want to excel at," because he thought it might make him a less effective scorer. 20 years later, 3-point shots have taken over basketball. The NBA has even changed dramatically in the last decade. In the 2010s, it briefly seemed as if sharp-shooting guards would drive the center position out of existence. But the last four MVP awards have all gone to centers.

In his new book, ‘Hoop Atlas,’ author Kirk Goldsberry explains how new star players have continually revolutionized the game. Goldsberry traces the evolution of basketball from the midrange mastery of peak Jordan in the 1990s, to the offensive dark ages of the early 2000s, to the rise of sprawl ball and "heliocentrism," and finally to emergence of a new apex predator in the game: the do-it-all big man.

Today, we talk about the history of paradigm shifts in basketball strategy and how several key superstars in particular—Michael Jordan, Allen Iverson, Manu Ginóbili, Steph Curry, and Nikola Jokic—have served as tactical entrepreneurs, introducing new plays and skills that transform the way basketball is played.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Kirk Goldsberry

Producer: Devon Baroldi

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Today—a closer critical look at the relationship between smartphones and mental health. One of the themes we’ve touched on more than any other on this show is that American teenagers—especially girls—appear to be “engulfed” in historic rates of anxiety and sadness. The numbers are undeniable. The Youth Risk Behavior Survey, which is published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, showed that from 2011 to 2021, the share of teenage girls who say they experience “persistent feelings of sadness or hopelessness” increased by 50 percent.

But there is a fierce debate about why this is happening. The most popular explanation on offer today in the media says: It’s the smartphones, stupid. Teen anxiety increased during a period when smartphones and social media colonized the youth social experience. This is a story I’ve shared on this very show, including with Jonathan Haidt, the author of the new bestselling book 'The Anxious Generation_.'_

But this interpretation is not dogma in scientific circles. In fact, it’s quite hotly debated. In 2019, an Oxford University study titled "The Association Between Adolescent Well-Being and Digital Technology Use" found that the effect size of screen time on reduced mental health was roughly the same as the association with “eating potatoes.”

Today, I want to give more space to the argument that it's not just the phones. Our guest is David Wallace-Wells, bestselling science writer and a columnist for The New York Times.  He says something more complicated is happening. In particular, the rise in teen distress seems concentrated in a handful of high-income and often English-speaking countries. So what is it about the interaction between smartphones, social media, and an emerging Anglophonic culture of mental health that seems to be driving this increase in teen distress?

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: David Wallace-Wells

Producer: Devon Baroldi

Links

• My original essay on the teen anxiety phenomenon

https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2022/04/american-teens-sadness-depression-anxiety/629524/

• "Are Smartphones Driving Our Teens to Depression?" by David Wallace-Wells

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/01/opinion/smartphones-social-media-mental-health-teens.html

• 'The Anxious Generation,' by Jonathan Haidt

https://www.anxiousgeneration.com/book

• Haidt responds to his critics

https://www.afterbabel.com/p/social-media-mental-illness-epidemic

• Our original episode with Haidt

https://www.theringer.com/2022/4/22/23036468/why-are-american-teenagers-so-sad-and-anxious

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For decades, flying cars have been a symbol of collective disappointment—of a technologically splendid future that was promised but never delivered. Whose fault is that?

Gideon Lewis-Kraus, a staff writer at The New Yorker who has spent 18 months researching the history, present, and future of flying car technology, joins the show. We talk about why flying cars don't exist—and why they might be much closer to reality than most people think.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. 

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Gideon Lewis-Kraus

Producer: Devon Baroldi

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Several years ago, I told some friends that I had an idea for a second book. It would be called ‘Everything Is a Cult.’ I’d noticed that in an age of declining religiosity, capitalism was filling the god-shaped hole left by the demise of organized religion with companies and services and products that were amassing a cult-like following in media, entertainment, and marketing. I never ended up writing the book. But last week, Sean Illing of ‘The Gray Area’ podcast with Vox asked me to come on his show to talk about my thinking on cults, identity, and the history of news media. Today, we're running that conversation on this feed in a rare example of me getting interviewed on my own show. Enjoy!

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Sean Illing

Producer: Devon Baroldi

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Today, with Gaza protests spreading across the country and around the world, we dive deep into what’s actually happening on the ground in the war between Israel and Hamas—and how this war might actually end, or lead to a broader conflict.

The status quo in Gaza is horrendous in every conceivable way. Following an attack that killed more than a thousand Israelis on October 7, Israel has retaliated with a bombing campaign more destructive than the most aggressive World War II fire-bombings in Germany. 80 percent of buildings in north Gaza have been damaged or destroyed. Tens of thousands of Gaza civilians have been killed, according to various estimates. Millions are displaced and hungry, and many are camped near Rafah, where Israel is considering a new military campaign to root out Hamas leaders.

Today’s guest is Natan Sachs, the director of the Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings. I asked Natan to come back on the show because, while the entire media is covering the campus protests in excruciating detail, I felt like the news cycle was losing its grip on the actual war itself. Today, I asked Natan my biggest questions about the war as it stands, including whether Israel’s military strategy has already failed; whether Hamas’s top leadership actually wants the kind of ceasefire that campus protesters are calling for; and whether anything about this war would actually change if the U.S. immediately halted military aid to Israel.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Natan Sachs

Producer: Devon Baroldi

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In the last week, hundreds of protests across college campuses and American cities have taken place in response to the war in Gaza. Campus life has shut down at Columbia University in NYC. The news is strewn with images of police confrontations on campuses, from Texas to California. Hundreds of demonstrators across the country have been taken into police custody. And many people now anticipate that, without a major course correction in the war in Gaza, demonstrators will converge on the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, in a replay of the infamous 1968 anti-war protests and police riots that defined that national convention. Next week, we’re going to have a full episode on the war itself. Today, I want to talk about the nature of protest itself. Omar Wasow, a professor of political science at UC Berkeley, is the author of an influential paper about the history of 1960s protests. Today we talk about what made the 1960s protests different, how protests succeed, how protests backfire, and how his research applies to today.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Omar Wasow

Producer: Devon Baroldi

LINKS: "Agenda Seeding: How 1960s Black Protests Moved Elites, Public Opinion, and Voting" [link]

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Today’s episode is all about India.You don’t have to believe that demography is pure destiny to appreciate the fact that the future of India is the future of the world. In 2024, today, India is the largest country by population on the planet, having surpassed China two years ago. In 2050, India is still projected to be the largest country in the world. In 2100, when I am 114 years old and this podcast is hosted by my cryo-frozen vat brain, India's projected to be larger than the next two biggest countries combined: China and Nigeria.

This spring, nearly one billion Indians are eligible to vote in India's election, and the big winner is almost certain—the highly popular and highly controversial Prime Minister Narendra Modi. What kind of a country is India becoming under Modi? Ravi Agrawal, the editor-in-chief of Foreign Policy magazine, joins us to discuss.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Ravi Agrawal

Producer: Devon Baroldi

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Today's show is a critical look at some of the most popular health fads of the moment, with return guests Steve Magness and Brad Stulberg, from the Growth Equation and the ‘FAREWELL’ podcast. We’re talking VO2 max, the benefits of sunlight, so-called morning and nighttime “stacks” (complex multivitamin routines for optimizing your energy and sleep), and Silicon Valley dreams of immortality. Plus, a rant from Derek about the supplement mania of independent media.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].

Host: Derek Thompson

Guests: Steve Magness & Brad Stulberg

Producer: Devon Baroldi

Links:

The ‘FAREWELL’ podcast: https://thegrowtheq.com/farewell-podcast/

The FDA's note on dietary supplement regulation: https://www.fda.gov/news-events/rumor-control/facts-about-dietary-supplements

Joe Rogan's supplement stack: https://jrelibrary.com/articles/joe-rogans-supplement-stack/

Huberman's sleep stack: https://www.nsdr.co/post/andrew-hubermans-sleep-cocktail

The Mayo Clinic on creatine: https://www.mayoclinic.org/drugs-supplements-creatine/art-20347591

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Jason Furman, a professor of economics at Harvard, returns to the show to discuss the biggest economic questions of the moment, including:

- Why have home and auto insurance prices skyrocketed?

- Why did inflation stop falling in 2024?

- How did economic experts get their disinflation forecasts so wrong?

- What sticky-high prices are preventing further disinflation?

- Are interest rates going to be higher for years?

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. 

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Jason Furman

Producer: Devon Baroldi

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"This presidential election is not very interesting, but it is important," the political commentator Josh Barro wrote in his newsletter, 'Very Serious.' Americans certainly seem to agree with the first part. Engagement with political news has been in the dumps, and many Americans seem to be tuning out the Biden-Trump II rematch. But the conundrum of this election is that it is both numbingly overfamiliar for many voters and also profoundly important for America and the world. The differences between a Biden and a Trump presidency for America’s domestic and foreign policy are huge. Too often, these differences are ignored in horse-race coverage—and, sometimes, they even go underemphasized by the campaigns and their own advocates. If you turn on a news segment or read a long article, you’ll probably hear about the dangers that Trump poses to democracy, or the rule of law, or the administrative state. All worthy concerns. But what is at stake for our most basic bread-and-butter issues: abortion, inflation, economic growth, government spending, entitlements, immigration, and foreign policy? Josh and Derek talk about the roots of voter ambivalence, what Trump's second administration could look like, and the biggest differences between a Biden and Trump White House.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. 

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Josh Barro

Producer: Devon Manze

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Jay Van Bavel is a professor of psychology and neural science at New York University. His lab has published papers on how the internet became a fun-house mirror of extreme political opinions, why the news media has a strong negativity bias, why certain emotions go viral online, why tribalism is inflamed by online activity, and how the internet can make us seem like the worst versions of ourselves. At the same time, Van Bavel emphasizes that many of the group psychology dynamics that can make social media seem like a dumpster fire are also core to what makes humankind such a special and ingenious species. We discuss the four dark laws of online engagement and the basics of group psychology.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Jay Van Bavel

Producer: Devon Baroldi

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The other day, I read a statistic about my hometown of Washington D.C. that knocked my socks off. In D.C. high schools, 60 percent of students were chronically absent in the last school year. That means they missed one day of school every two weeks. Among ninth graders, it’s even worse: One-third of D.C. freshmen were absent for the equivalent of six weeks of school.

The New York Times reported that, nationwide, one quarter of public school students are now chronically absent. That figure has practically doubled since before the pandemic. And it’s doubled across all sorts of districts—rich and poor, liberal and conservative. Today’s guest is Nat Malkus, a former teacher who is the deputy director of education policy at the American Enterprise Institute. We talk about why school absences have exploded across the country; why some people think this just doesn’t matter; why we think it might matter quite a bit; and what teachers, parents, and lawmakers should do about it.

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Nat Malkus

Producer: Devon Renaldo

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What can the science of ancient humans and the lifestyle of hunter-gatherers teach us about how to be healthy today? Harvard evolutionary biologist Daniel Lieberman joins the show to talk about his provocative “mismatch theory,” why humans are dysevolved for the modern world, and why exercise is the ultimate miracle drug.

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Daniel Lieberman

Producer: Devon Renaldo

Links:

Exercised, by Dan Lieberman https://www.amazon.com/dp/B082H3ZH44?ref=KC_GS_GB_US

The Story of the Human Body, by Dan Lieberman https://www.amazon.com/Story-Human-Body-Evolution-Disease/dp/030774180X

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Today, the media vibes around electric vehicles are all bad. But if you lift up and take in the big picture, electric vehicles and hybrids are taking over the market. Gas-powered cars are as much in structural decline right now as the cable bundle in TV.

Today’s guest, Robinson Meyer, the founding executive editor of the climate media company Heatmap, says that while EV sales are much stronger than the media doom-and-gloom narratives, something else is happening that deserves our attention. America’s Big Three automakers—Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis (which owns Dodge, Chrysler, and Jeep)—are in big trouble. China’s electric vehicles are going to hit Detroit "like a wrecking ball," he says. Joe Biden wants America’s green electric future to be made in America. But right now, the future of EVs is being made in China.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at http://www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Robinson Meyer

Producer: Devon Manze

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Derek shares his thoughts on the question of the moment in tech and tech politics.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. 

Host: Derek Thompson

Producer: Devon Baroldi

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Today, we’re talking about movies, the philosophy of hits in Hollywood, and why we might be at a fascinating inflection point in how the entertainment industry thinks about popularity and prestige.

We start by thinking about the big Oscar win for 'Oppenheimer' in the historical context. For much of the past 10 or 15 years, popularity and prestige have come apart in Hollywood. The biggest movies have almost exclusively been comic book franchises, sequels, and adaptations, while the Best Picture winners have often been small films, like 'CODA' or 'Moonlight.' But in the past 18 months, two things have changed. First, the old franchise model is showing some wear and tear, as Marvel movies consistently underperform their expectations. Second, original and often daring films—'Barbie,' 'Oppenheimer,' 'Dune: Part 2'—are dominating at the box office. Bloomberg's Lucas Shaw joins to explain how the franchise formula was born, why it's showing its age, and what might come next.

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One of my New Year’s resolutions for 2024 was to do more episodes with people who think I'm wrong about something. For example, I've done several episodes about how the U.S. economy is doing much better than most Americans think. Today’s guest says my analysis (and that of many economists and economic commentators) is missing something big. Official inflation measures do a poor job of capturing the effect of higher interest rates. When a home goes from $200k to $220k, that’s a 10 percent increase in the value of the home. But, with higher rates, the monthly cost of living in that house with a mortgage might go up 300 percent. The same is true for financing a new car with higher interest rates. Or paying credit card debt. Judd Cramer, an economist who teaches at Harvard University, is the coauthor of a new paper on how our inflation data doesn't properly account for skyrocketing interest rates—and why the so-called "vibecession" isn’t as much of a mystery as we think.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. 

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Judd Cramer

Producer: Devon Baroldi

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Today’s episode is about one of the most interesting pieces of research I’ve read in the past year. It's an idea called "need for chaos," and the truth is that I literally cannot stop thinking about it as I follow American culture, politics, and media. Very briefly, it is the observation that many Americans today embrace conspiracy theories and nihilistic burn-it-all-down messages, not because they are partisans of the left or right, but rather because they've become hopelessly cynical (sometimes for very good reason!) about all elite and all major institutions of power. Today’s guest is the Danish political scientist Michael Bang Petersen, who coauthored the paper that introduced this idea.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Michael Bang Petersen

Producer: Devon Baroldi

Links:

https://politicalsciencenow.com/the-need-for-chaos-and-motivations-to-share-hostile-political-rumors/

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/02/need-for-chaos-political-science-concept/677536/

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Today’s episode is about the extraordinary decline in face-to-face socializing in America—and the real stakes of the country’s hanging-out crisis.

From 2003 to 2022, American adults reduced their average hours of face-to-face socializing by about 30 percent. For unmarried Americans, the decline was even bigger—more than 35 percent. For teenagers, it was more than 45 percent.

Eric Klinenberg is a sociologist and the director of the Institute for Public Knowledge at New York University. He is the author of several books on the rise of living alone and the decline of social infrastructure. His latest is _'_2020: One City, Seven People, and the Year Everything Changed.' And he's not afraid to challenge the popular notion of an epidemic of loneliness in America. “There is no good evidence that Americans are lonelier than ever," he has written. Today, Eric and I talk about teens and parenting, the decline of hanging out, why America sucks at building social infrastructure, and why aloneness isn’t always loneliness.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Eric Klinenberg

Producer: Devon Baroldi

Why Americans Suddenly Stopped Hanging Out: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/02/america-decline-hanging-out/677451/

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Today’s episode is about arguably the most important economic statistic out there: real (or inflation-adjusted) wage growth. For much of the last few years, many people's real wages have declined. But for the last few quarters, real wages have been growing. In fact, they've grown so much for the poorest workers that several key measures of inequality are falling, and the Black-white wage gap is shrinking. But many Americans still don't seem to buy the idea that things are getting better. Today's guest is Dr. Arindrajit Dube, a professor of economics at University of Massachusetts Amherst—one of the world’s top researchers on minimum wage policies and pay. He says things are happening in this economy that we haven't seen since the 1950s or 1960s. "We're seeing a fundamental reorganization of work in America," Dube said.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Dr. Arindrajit Dube

Producer: Devon Baroldi

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Life is a series of conversations. Our relationships, friendships, marriages, breakups, makeups, hirings, promotions, and firings are mostly the story of two people talking. And many of these conversations are hard or uncomfortable. Sometimes we spend years refusing to be honest with the people we know the best because we’re afraid of telling them how we feel. What if we all had such confidence in our own powers of communication and understanding that we didn’t fear these hard conversations at all? What if we welcomed them?

Charles Duhigg, the author of 'The Power of Habit,' has a new book out this week. It’s called 'Supercommunicators.' Duhigg’s book is about how to talk when talking is hard. Today we talk about the art and science of difficult conversations, from romantic relationships to political persuasion, and what he discovered to be the most important principles of having a great and emotionally resonant discussion.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. 

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Charles Duhigg

Producer: Devon Baroldi

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Today’s episode is about the science of slowing down the aging process … and why one biotech company has found some success with dogs. Last November, the New York Times reported that a company called Loyal had reached a milestone in the development of safe life extension drugs for our pets. This drug, which is called LOY-1, works to slow the aging process in large breeds. But Loyal's work holds major promise for helping all dogs live longer. It could even crack open some of the mysteries of mammalian aging, which could lead to discoveries that extend the lives of humans.

Today's guest is the CEO and founder of Loyal, Celine Halioua. We talk about her experience as a female biotech founder, the weird economics of pharma, the ethics of life extension, the science of why big dogs die young, her theories for how to slow down the aging process in dogs big and small, and the possibility spillover benefits for humans who would like a few more years with their family and friends.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Celine Halioua

Producer: Devon Baroldi

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We’ve done several shows on America’s anxiety crisis. This one asks several questions that might get me in trouble. Have we overcorrected from an era when mental health was shameful to talk about to an era where people talk about anxiety so much online that it’s worsening our mental health crisis? Is the very design of algorithmic media engineered to increase rumination and mental distress? Is there a dark side to all this media about trauma, anxiety, and depression? (Yes, the irony of us asking this question is not lost on us.) Today’s guest is Darby Saxbe, a clinical psychologist and professor at the University of Southern California. We talk about anxiety as identity, why talking about anxiety on the Internet is such a mess today, how the architecture of the internet unhelpfully shapes our discussions of mental health, and what a better conversation about mental health online might look like.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Darby Saxbe

Producer: Devon Baroldi

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You could make the argument that last year was the worst year in human history for climate change. The Earth experienced its hottest day on record over and over and over again. Air surface temperature anomalies set a record in September. Ocean heat set a record too. The number of wildfires in Canada? Another record high.

But you don’t have to squint too hard to see the good news. U.S. and European carbon emissions have actually declined this century. The rate of global deforestation is going down. And investment in clean energy technology—particularly solar and batteries—is smashing records and changing the world.

Those glimmers of hope come from an epic annual report from Nat Bullard, an independent, Singapore-based climate researcher who spent several years at Bloomberg. In today’s episode, Nat and I discuss the twin pillars of the global clean energy revolution (solar and storage), how these two technologies have consistently beat expert predictions, how they’re reshaping energy generation around the world, and what stands in the way of a clean energy future based around sunshine and batteries.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. 

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Nathaniel Bullard

Producer: Devon Baroldi

Links:

Nat's presentation on the clean energy revolution: https://www.nathanielbullard.com/presentations

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Something mysterious is happening in the politics of young men and women. Gen Z women—those in their 20s and younger—have become sharply more liberal in the past few years, while young men are shifting subtly to the right. This gender schism isn't just happening in the U.S. It's happening in Europe, northern Africa, and eastern Asia. Why? And what are the implications of sharply diverging politics between men and women in our lifetime? Alice Evans, a visiting fellow at Stanford University and a researcher of gender, equality, and inequality around the world, joins the show to discuss.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Alice Evans

Producer: Devon Baroldi

Links: https://www.ft.com/content/29fd9b5c-2f35-41bf-9d4c-994db4e12998

https://www.businessinsider.com/gen-z-gender-gap-young-men-women-dont-agree-politics-2024-1

https://www.ggd.world/p/what-prevents-and-what-drives-gendered

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If you love food and also consider yourself a good person, you probably care about where your food comes from, how it’s grown, and whether it's part of a system that is destroying the planet. After all, if you study just about any problem related to the environment, sooner or later your study will make solid contact with our food systems. Our food is responsible for 25 percent of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions.

But not everybody who claims to care about the environment knows what they’re talking about. Eating local? Eating organic? Counterintuitively, these behaviors aren't as ecologically beneficial as many people claim.

These facts and more come from Hannah Ritchie, a data scientist, the deputy editor of Our World in Data, and the author of a new book 'Not the End of the World.' As Ritchie argues at length in her book, a lot of liberals assume that anything that sounds like pastoralism and natural living is better for the planet. But in fact, it is technological progress that allows for highly efficient farming, high-quality foods with less land consumed by agriculture, less water wasted, and more forests spared. Many times, our pastoralist instincts to appear virtuous when it comes to food and the planet don’t actually achieve virtuous outcomes.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Hannah Ritchie

Producer: Devon Baroldi

Links mentioned: "Environmental Impacts of Food Production," Our World in Data https://ourworldindata.org/environmental-impacts-of-food

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It's just a steel tumbler with a straw and side handle. But the Stanley cup is a social media phenomenon and an incredible business success story. How did this thing come out of nowhere? What lessons can we learn about its success? And, more broadly, what do cultural phenomena like this say about marketing trends, social media tastes, and the role of randomness in our life and economy? Joining the show are Amanda Mull, staff writer at The Atlantic, and Brian Klaas, author of the new book ‘Fluke: Chance, Chaos, and Why Everything We Do Matters.’

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].

Host: Derek Thompson

Guests: Amanda Mull & Brian Klaas

Producer: Devon Baroldi

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Sports Illustrated layoffs. The demise of independent Pitchfork. Hundreds of millions of dollars in losses at major newspapers like the Washington Post and the Los Angeles Times. The state of the U.S. news industry is dire. How did we get here? Who knows the way out? The Ringer's Bryan Curtis joins the show, with contributions from an interview with NPR's David Folkenflik.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].

Host: Derek Thompson

Guests: Bryan Curtis & David Folkenflik

Producer: Devon Baroldi

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Today is the third and final episode in our miniseries on this unique moment in global war and conflict. In the first episode, we looked at the turmoil in the Middle East. In the second episode, we offered explanations for the historic rise in global conflict between states and within states, from Eastern Europe to Central America. Now, we come home to the U.S.

By just about any measure, the U.S. southern border is facing a historic crisis. Last year, U.S. Customs and Border Protection reported 2.5 million encounters at the border—an annual record. In December alone, border officials processed some 300,000 migrants—a monthly record. This surge has created chaos in parts of southern Texas and Arizona. It has also created a humanitarian crisis and a political headache for liberal governors and mayors in Chicago, Denver, and New York, where shelters are bulging with migrants and tents are strewn across the streets. Meanwhile, in Washington, lawmakers are haggling over a bill to secure the border but making little progress.

Today’s guest is Dara Lind, a senior fellow at the American Immigration Council who has been covering immigration policy for many years. We talk about why the border crisis is happening, who or what is to blame for it, what is to be done, and why immigration is such an impossible issue for American politics to solve.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Dara Lind

Producer: Devon Baroldi

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This is the second episode in "World on Fire," a series on the historic levels of global violence and conflict in the Middle East, the Americas, and beyond. Listen to Part 1 here: "World on Fire, Part 1: The Houthis, Israel's Impossible War, and Worsening Middle East Chaos."

You and I are living through an extraordinary period of global conflict. In Europe, Russia, and Ukraine are engaged in one of the continent's deadliest hot wars since 1945. In Africa, the last few years have seen devastating wars in Ethiopia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and South Sudan. In the Middle East, of course, there is Israel's record-breaking bombing of Gaza and the unfolding crisis in Yemen. In Central Asia, Azerbaijan launched a brutal attack against Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh. In Central and South America, cartel and gang violence has surged. The Jalisco Cartel New Generation and its affiliates in Mexico and Columbia, were responsible for more than 11,000 deaths in 2022. Last week, the state of Ecuador arrested 900 people in a security operation to stop gang violence, following the prison escape of one of the country's most powerful drug lords.

According to researchers at Uppsala University, this might be the most violent period of the 21st century, with more total conflicts than any year since World War II. Why is it all happening at once?

Paul Poast is a political scientist who studies international relations and conflict history at the University of Chicago. In an essay for The Atlantic, he said we are in the midst of “not a world war, but a world at war.” And in this interview, we consider five theories for why global conflict seems to be surging around the world.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Paul Poast

Producer: Devon Baroldi

Mentioned in this episode:

• 
  
• The Uppsala Conflict Data Program [link]
• 
  
• "Not a World War But a World at War," by Paul Poast [link]
• 
  

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The chaos in the Middle East is getting worse. It’s not just in Gaza. It’s not the spasms of violence in the West Bank. It’s not just the northern border with Lebanon, where Israel is braced for the possibility of a new war. It’s not the Houthis in Yemen, disrupting Red Sea trade. It's not just Iran urging on these groups. It's all of it, all at once. Natan Sachs, director of the Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings, joins to break this all down and offer several big-picture explanations for why so many long-standing problems in the Middle East are getting worse at the same time.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Natan Sachs

Producer: Devon Baroldi

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The 'New York Times' bestselling author and contrarian self-help writer Oliver Burkeman joins the show to talk about his new audio essay series on work, focus, and interruptions—and how, too often, our emphasis on eliminating distractions ironically takes us away from the most important things in life.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Oliver Burkeman

Producer: Devon Baroldi

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Derek shares what he considers the most important narratives of the moment, including the return of normalcy in economics, a big shift in sports media, Big Tech's 1890 moment, and ... aliens.

Host: Derek Thompson

Producer: Devon Baroldi

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If you're looking for a hopeful and mind-expanding conversation to round out the year, this one is for you.

It's our breakthroughs of the year episode, covering 2023's biggest achievements in science and tech, including space technology, life extension, fusion, gene editing, vaccines, and, of course, GLP-1s.

It has become a 'Plain English' tradition—after weeks of stories that often take us into sad areas, like anxiety, depression, and war—to close the year with a nerdy conversation about the most important developments at the frontier of science and technology. Today's frontier guide is Dr. Eric Topol. He is the founder and director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute and a bestselling author on the future of medicine.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. 

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Eric Topol

Producer: Devon Baroldi

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One week ago, Matthew Perry’s autopsy report came back, finding that the ‘Friends’ actor died from the acute effects of ketamine overdose. His death has sharpened focus on the popular and controversial drug. Ketamine has been hailed as a miracle cure for depression and anxiety, criticized as a VC-fueled fad, and investigated as a placebo. But what is ketamine, what is its history, what do we know about how and why it works, and how could it help hundreds of millions of people with depression and anxiety? Today’s guest is Boris Heifets. He is an assistant professor of anesthesiology at Stanford University and the author of a much talked about and utterly fascinating study on ketamine that came up with a brilliant way to test the effects of ketamine. The study's surprising results raise big questions about not only ketamine, but the curative power of belief.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Boris Heifets

Producer: Devon Baroldi

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Today’s episode is about 2023 in media—from TV to film, from the miracle of Barbenheimer’s to the superhero drought, from Netflix’s show of strength to Taylor Swift’s invincibility, from the podcast purge to so much more. Our guest is Matt Belloni, the host of Ringer podcast ‘The Town’ and a writer with Puck.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Matthew Belloni

Producer: Devon Baroldi

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Today’s episode is our second in a series on the weight-loss drug revolution of the last two years.

On Tuesday, we talked to endocrinologist Beverly Tchang about the science of glucagon like peptide 1 receptor agonists—also known as GLP1s, also known as Ozempic, Wegovy, Moujargo, and Zepbound. If you haven’t listened to that show, I think you’ll feel safe and entertained within the bounds of this episode. But if you want to know more about how these drugs work, their effect on insulin and glucose and the brain’s reward center, or the questions they raise about obesity and the nature of willpower and free will, I’d encourage you to queue up that show.  Today, in Part 2, we have two guests: Zach Reitano is the CEO and cofounder of the telehealth platform Ro. He is here for a couple reasons. He has a bird’s-eye view of the GLP1 marketplace, the rise in demand, the supply chain, the economics of pricing and insurance. He’s also written several revelatory essays, pulling in research from think tanks, medical experts, and investment banks, that have helped shape my understanding of these drugs and the effect they could have on the population and the economy. Our second guest is Dr. Robert Lustig, an endocrinologist who spent years as a pediatrician and researcher at the University of California-San Francisco. As you’ll hear, he is much less optimistic about the ability of these drugs to revolutionize obesity medication in America.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].

Host: Derek Thompson

Guests: Zach Reitano & Robert Lustig

Producer: Devon Baroldi

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Today’s podcast is about the weight-loss drug revolution—which I believe might be one of the most important stories in the world right now. Despite all the attention weight-loss drugs are receiving, it’s possible that they might soon affect the world even more than we realize as they teach us about the science of human metabolism, decision-making, and even free will. Beverly Tchang, an endocrinologist at Weill Cornell, explains how these drugs work, what they mean for people with diabetes and obesity, and how to wrap our minds around their stranger and spookier side effects.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Beverly Tchang

Producer: Devon Manze

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Today, we’re examining the U.S. housing market, starting with a specific question: Should you look to rent or buy your next home? By some metrics, this is the worst time to buy a house in 40 years. Housing prices are near record highs, especially compared to local rents. For many young people, the dream of homeownership might seem completely impossible right now, thanks to huge national demand colliding with short supply, especially in high-income areas. Meanwhile, high mortgage interest rates have failed to reduce home prices, as owners are rate locked into their old mortgages. When will this sorry state of affairs turn around? Mark Zandi, the chief economist of Moody’s Analytics and host of the Inside Economics podcast, joins the show to answer our questions.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Mark Zandi

Producer: Devon Manze

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Today’s episode is about the controversial life and legacy of Henry Kissinger, who died last week at the age of 100. First as Nixon’s National Security Advisor and Secretary of State, and then as an author and diplomacy whisperer in almost every subsequent administration, Kissinger's life is overstuffed with achievements and disasters and breakthroughs and catastrophes—many of which continue to shape the world we live in. Today’s guest is George Packer, an Atlantic staff writer and the author of several books, including ‘Our Man,’ a biography of Richard Holbrooke: another towering American diplomat who was Kissinger’s rival and partner in diplomacy.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. 

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: George Packer

Producer: Devon Manze

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Today’s episode is a wide-ranging one, from breaking news in tech to the philosophy of social media. The Atlantic's Charlie Warzel joins to discuss Elon Musk's bizarre and crude comments at The New York Times DealBook Summit, the corporate meltdown of X, whether its demise would make the world better off, the fragmentation of the social media landscape, and its implications for audiences and news-makers everywhere.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. 

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Charlie Warzel

Producer: Devon Manze

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This month, President Joe Biden and President Xi Jinping of the People's Republic of China (PRC) met in San Francisco amid trade wars and even the prospect of a catastrophic hot war over Taiwan. Their meeting took place during a nervous period in the history of China. After decades of spectacular growth, the Chinese economic miracle has sputtered, with huge implications for its own population and the world. And yet, even as the most dire aspects of the Chinese economy make headlines, it remains the case that China is the foundry of the green energy revolution, making more solar panels and wind turbines and electric vehicles than any other country. To help us understand how China thinks about economics, technology, and America, we welcome back to the show writer Dan Wang.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. 

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Dan Wang

Producer: Devon Manze

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Today’s episode is about whatever the hell just happened—is still happening—at OpenAI, where CEO Sam Altman has been fired, almost rehired, and then shipped off to Microsoft, while the most famous startup in artificial intelligence self-immolates for reasons that the company refuses to explain. Our panel has some theories. Charlie Warzel is a staff writer at The Atlantic who has been texting and talking with OpenAI employees for the last few days. Karen Hao is a contributing writer at The Atlantic who is writing a book about OpenAI and knows many of the main characters from this past weekend. Ross Andersen is a staff writer at The Atlantic who wrote a big magazine feature on Sam Altman, OpenAI, and the messy quest to build artificial general intelligence.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. 

Host: Derek Thompson

Guests: Ross Andersen, Karen Hao & Charlie Warzel 

Producer: Devon Manze

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Today’s episode is about the question of the moment in politics: the meaning of Joe Biden’s terrible polling numbers. Today’s guest is Nate Cohn, chief political analyst at the New York Times, where he does public opinion, polling, demographics, and politics. We talk about the notorious New York Times poll that showed Donald Trump trouncing Biden in the swing states. We talk about why it’s not crazy to take presidential polls seriously right now—even though we're 300 days out from the election. We talk about the multi-layered problems of Biden’s age. And we talk about why the new "engagement gap" might be the most important, under-discussed phenomenon in American politics today.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. 

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Nate Cohn

Producer: Devon Manze

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Today’s episode is about thinking practically about the AI revolution. Yes, it may one day usher in some now unthinkable utopia or dystopia. But in the meantime, our imperfect world exists, and your imperfect job exists, and you face a forced choice: Should you use this technology? And if so, how do you make it work for you? Kevin Roose, a tech columnist for The New York Times and the host of the podcast 'Hard Fork,' talks about how generative AI tools are already changing his job and others, including in medicine, consulting, and software development.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. 

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Kevin Roose

Producer: Devon Manze

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Morgan Housel, the author of 'The Psychology of Money' and a partner at Collab Fund, talks about his new book, 'Same as Ever,' on the virtues of ancient truths in a world where everything seems to be changing. We also talk about why so many successful people are miserable, why great ideas don't scale, the difference between happiness and contentment, the wisdom of a Snickers bar, the downsides of fully optimized culture, and how to write.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. 

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Morgan Housel

Producer: Devon Manze

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In the last few weeks, our coverage of this conflict has tried very hard to see the problem from as many angles as possible. In our first episode, we considered the political motivations of Hamas’s October 7 attack. In our second episode, we considered the behavior of Israel’s government from a critical perspective. In a third episode, we asked whether Israel’s military objectives made sense by speaking to a counter-terrorism expert. And last week, we told the 150-year history of Israel, Palestine, and the origins of Hamas by speaking to two historians, one who was clearly more sympathetic to Israel and another who was clearly more sympathetic to Palestine.

There is a voice we haven’t heard from in this series: a Palestinian voice. Today’s interview is with Sally Abed, a Palestinian-Israeli, who is an activist with the group Standing Together. We talk about the "psychosis" and "impossibility" of being Palestinian in Israel, what happens after a ceasefire, and how to build a coalition for peace.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Sally Abed

Producer: Devon Manze

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One year ago, it was a matter of conventional wisdom among experts that the U.S. was on the brink of a recession. They were wrong. The latest GDP report showed America’s real output growing at a 4.9 percent annualized rate. That's huge. But just as we zagged a year ago, when we criticized recession predictions, I want to zag again today. It is a matter of broad conventional wisdom that the U.S. economy right now is doing really well. And, for now, it is. But challenges abound, including "higher-for-longer" interest rates, a recession in the apartment construction market, and ongoing global mayhem. Bloomberg columnist Conor Sen counts the five biggest risks to economic growth in the next year—and makes his official economic prediction for 2024.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. 

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Conor Sen

Producer: Devon Manze

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The eminent Israeli historian Benny Morris walks us through the origins of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, from antiquity to October 7. And the excellent historian of Palestine, Zachary Foster, digs into the often misunderstood history of the rise of Hamas. Finally, both share their thoughts on Israel's military response, the future of the conflict, and the "missing moderate middle" on both sides.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. 

Host: Derek Thompson

Guests: Benny Morris & Zachary Foster

Producer: Devon Manze

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Today, we’re taking a break from war to talk about the science of human potential and a new book on that subject from the psychologist and bestselling author Adam Grant. In 'Hidden Potential,' Grant shares stories and studies across sports, religious history, coaching, and economics to explain why we're bad at cultivating our own potential and identifying ability in others. We talk about education and affirmative action, scouting quarterbacks, coaching Steph Curry, and, for reasons that will soon become apparent, the spread of Protestantism.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. 

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Adam Grant

Producer: Devon Manze

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Two things seem true: First, Israel has a profound moral right to defend itself from terrorism. Second, its current strategy could kill thousands of civilians, destroy its international reputation, breed even more terrorist cells, and obliterate any chance for peace in our lifetime. Is it possible to keep both ideas in our head? Today's guest is Georgetown University professor Daniel Byman, one of the world's leading researchers on terrorism, counterterrorism, and Israel’s military.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. 

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Daniel Byman

Producer: Devon Manze

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This is our second episode on the war between Israel and Hamas. Today’s guest is Peter Beinart. Peter Beinart is a professor at CUNY of journalism and political science, the editor at large of Jewish Currents, and the author of The Beinart Notebook newsletter. I don’t know another Jewish author who writes and speaks with as much eloquent anguish over this issue. Israel is an idea and a country so worth defending, and also the way Israel defends itself is so often inexcusable. It is almost impossible to keep both ideas in one’s head. We’re going to try.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. 

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Peter Beinart

Producer: Devon Manze

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The former golden boy of crypto is on trial for one of the most lurid corporate fraud scandals of the century. What's happening at the trial? What are the most compelling pieces of evidence against him? Does he have any chance of winning? Zeke Faux, the author of the new book 'Number Go Up,' takes us inside the courtroom where SBF is facing charges that could put him away for decades.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. 

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Zeke Faux

Producer: Devon Manze

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What motivated the Hamas terrorist attack? How did Israel fail to stop it? What role is Iran playing in this conflict? What should Americans know about the state of Israel's chaotic internal politics? And what comes next? Today's show has two guests. Dan Raviv is the author of several bestselling books on Israel, Israeli-American relations, and Israeli intelligence. He was a CBS News national and international correspondent for over 40 years. He’s here to provide context on Hamas and Israeli politics. To help us understand some of the regional political dynamics, we have Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, who has been an adviser for several accords and peace talks in the Middle East in the past decade. He is also the president of the Yale Chief Executive Leadership Institute.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. 

Host: Derek Thompson

Guests: Dan Raviv & Jeffrey Sonnenfeld 

Producer: Devon Manze

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Hollywood has been decimated by the rise of streaming. At Disney, Warner Bros. Discovery, Paramount, and Sony, profits on TV, film, and streaming went from $23 billion in 2013 to about zero in 2023. Nothing tells this story more clearly than a brief history of Disney. In the early 2000s, Disney under CEO Bob Iger went on one of the most extraordinary runs in modern business history. ESPN was the most valuable network in the cable bundle. They acquired Pixar, Marvel, LucasFilms, and Fox. As the company shifted to streaming, it seemed set up to lap Netflix and eat the box office at the same time. But today, Disney’s stock is at a nine-year low. Operating margins are down 75 percent. Disney+ lost $4 billion last year.

What happened to America’s greatest entertainment company? To discuss, we have two great guests: Julia Alexander, director of strategy for Parrot Analytics and a writer with Puck News, and Matthew Ball, a writer and investor and author of the book ‘The Metaverse.’

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].

Host: Derek Thompson

Guests: Matthew Ball & Julia Alexander

Producer: Devon Manze

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Twenty years ago, higher education was one of the most trusted institutions in America. Today, confidence in higher ed is falling among every demographic: young and old, men and women, Republicans and Democrats, those who didn't finish high school and those with framed PhDs on their wall. And it’s not just attitudes. In the fall of 2010, there were more than 18 million undergraduates enrolled in colleges and universities across the U.S. Last year, there were about 15 million undergrads. That’s a decline of roughly 16 percent. In a recent essay for the New York Times, author Paul Tough, who’s published several excellent books about college in America, wrote: “Americans have turned away from college at the same time that students in the rest of the world have been flocking to campus. Why?” Today’s guest is Paul Tough. We talk about why a noxious stew of economics, culture, and inequality has turned a surprising number of Americans against college. Who’s to blame, and what happens next?

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. 

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Paul Tough

Producer: Devon Manze

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Since the 1970s, the General Social Survey has asked thousands of Americans the same question: “Taken all together, how would you say things are these days—would you say that you are very happy, pretty happy, or not too happy?” In the past few decades, our well-being seemed to take a nosedive. According to researchers, the decline of marriage seems to be the single most important explanation. Why is marriage the best predictor of happiness in America? Does marriage turn unhappy people into happy people? Are happier people just more likely to get married? Or is something more complicated happening? We welcome back Robert Waldinger and Marc Schulz, the director and associate director of Harvard Study of Adult Development, the longest-running study of adult happiness ever conducted and the authors of the book 'The Good Life,' to discuss.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].

Host: Derek Thompson

Guests: Robert Waldinger and Marc Schulz

Producer: Devon Manze

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We're in the midst of a great affordability crisis. It's not just the inflation crisis. It's a greater cost crisis of the last few decades. Everything that matters most in life—health care, housing, education—is getting more and more expensive. Why? One way to investigate this question is to look at the cost and speed of building physical things in America. We build urban transit more slowly than we used to, we build highways more slowly than we used to, we build energy infrastructure more slowly than we used to, we build skyscrapers more slowly than we used to, and we build housing more slowly than we used to. Brian Potter, the author of the newsletter 'Construction Physics,' explains the forces behind the great slowdown, why it matters, and how to turn things around.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. 

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Brian Potter

Producer: Devon Manze

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Derek is back, and ... he's a new dad! After several weeks of parental leave, he talks about what's surprised him about new fatherhood. Brad Stulberg, the health and science writer, returns to the show to discuss the psychology of major life transitions, why westerners—and, in particular, Americans—are so bad at dealing with challenges to their identity, and his new book, 'Master of Change.'

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. 

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Brad Stulberg

Producer: Devon Manze

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Today’s show is about what I consider the biggest mystery of the U.S. economy. Last year, economic experts predicted a recession in 2023 with more confidence than they’ve predicted any recession in decades. We ended up with what some people are calling immaculate disinflation: an economy with low unemployment, falling inflation, rising real wages, and narrowing inequality. Harvard economist Jason Furman joins the show to talk about why so many economists were so wrong and what their wrongness teaches us about how the economy works.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. 

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Jason Furman

Producer: Devon Manze

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Less than 1 percent of college students attend Ivy League colleges and equally selective schools, like Stanford and Duke. But these schools have an outsize influence on American life. Practically every Supreme Court justice of the last 40 years, 25 percent of the U.S. Senate, and one in eight Fortune 500 CEOs went to these schools. A new study on their admissions programs finds that they are heavily biased toward children from rich families. For applicants with the same SAT score, kids from families in the top 0.1 percent were more than twice as likely to get in compared to the average student. A coauthor on that paper, Harvard economist David Deming, talks to Derek about what his landmark study tells us about college, fairness, and the American Dream.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. 

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: David Deming

Producer: Devon Manze

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Richard Rhodes, the Pulitzer Prize-winning author of 'The Making of the Atomic Bomb,' discusses the life of J. Robert Oppenheimer, the Manhattan Project, the history of nuclear weapons, and the new film on his life by Christopher Nolan.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Richard Rhodes

Producer: Devon Manze

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The trouble brewing in the media and entertainment industry has become one of the most interesting—and truly perplexing—business stories in the world. How does everything seem so bad at the same time? The domestic box office is still in a recession. Pay TV is a nightmare. Streaming is a money pit. And actors and writers are on strike. How did this happen? And could it get worse before it gets better? Today’s guest is Julia Alexander, director of strategy for Parrot Analytics and a writer with Puck News. We discuss a brief history of Hollywood, how we got to this point, how Disney’s plight in particular tells a story of how streaming has roiled this town, how the strikes fit into this picture, and what these companies should do now.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Julia Alexander

Producer: Devon Manze

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By many measures, this is one of the best times to find a job in decades. And by many measures, Americans are locked in a state of extreme glumness about the country. Jordan Weissmann, Washington editor at Semafor, rejoins the show to talk about why the economy is much better than many Americans—and many economic commentators—think, and whether "Bidenomics" can fix what ails us.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Jordan Weissmann

Producer: Devon Manze

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Calvin Newport is a computer science professor at Georgetown University and the author of, among other books, 'Deep Work' and 'A World Without Email.' At the heart of so much of Newport’s work is this incredibly rich mystery: Why hasn't the internet produced more geniuses? One possibility is that the productivity tools ironically inhibit our productivity. The average white-collar worker in marketing, advertising, finance, and media now spends up to 60 percent of the workweek engaged in electronic communication. In a recent survey, Microsoft found that video meetings had taken up so much of the day that a significant share of its workforce was logging online between 9 and 10 p.m. to finish their actual non-email, non-meeting work. In response to this relentless need to loop back and back and back, Newport came up with what he called the Deep Work Hypothesis: He said to learn hard things quickly, you must focus intensely without distraction. But the ability to perform this kind of deep focused work is becoming rare at exactly the same time it is becoming most valuable in our economy. In this conversation, we talk about deep work and shallow work, how our productivity tools make us less productive, and how to actually get things done.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Calvin Newport

Producer: Devon Manze

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University of Chicago professor Paul Poast breaks down Yevgeny Prigozhin's rebellion, Vladimir Putin's weakness, Russia's military incompetence, and the long-term implications of Saturday's bizarre 36-hour rebellion.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Paul Poast

Producer: Devon Manze

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Today’s episode is the first in a new miniseries about getting stuff done. This episode in particular is about NOT getting stuff done.

I consider myself an exceptional procrastinator. There are many times when I sit down at my computer to accomplish one task—say, answer my email; write five paragraphs—where I’ll immediately get swept into a text conversation, which will lead to some snooping around ESPN, which will remind me I should check The Atlantic homepage, where I’ll open three articles in separate tabs, and those articles will birth even more tabs, but they’re long articles and I want some coffee as a companion so maybe I should make some coffee, so I listen to a podcast while I do that, and I might as well check Twitter while I’m listening to the show, and three hours later, I’ve written absolutely nothing.

I’ve spent way too much time thinking about procrastination, which is why it was such a pleasure to think out loud about it with an actual scientist: Tim Pychyl, a retired professor of psychology at Carleton University and a long-time productivity researcher.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Tim Pychyl

Producer: Devon Manze

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Last year, there were 3,661,220 babies born in the U.S. That sounds like a lot. But historically speaking, it’s really not. It’s actually 15 percent below our peak in 2007. And it means America’s total fertility rate—the average number of babies a woman today is expected to have in her lifetime, based on current trends—is essentially stuck at its all-time record low. For decades, the U.S. birthrate has been below the so-called replacement level of 2.1. Today it’s around 1.6.

Sometimes, I feel a little weird talking about fertility and birthrates like they’re just ordinary numbers with decimal points, like monthly used-car inflation. Fertility is complicated. It is emotional. And it is private. But I’m fascinated by this issue because the collective private decisions of hundreds of millions of families really do shape the future of population growth. And there’s just no getting around the fact that population growth is one of the most important factors in determining economic growth, tax revenue, productivity, innovation, and public finance.

We’re in a moment now in world history where every major country is projected to have a shrinking population in the next 20 years. No country gives us a better glimpse of this impending future than South Korea. In 1960, the average Korean woman had six children. Today, Korean woman average less than one child. Today, the country has the world’s lowest fertility rate.

Today’s guest is Andrew Yeo, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution’s Center for East Asia Policy Studies and a professor of politics at The Catholic University of America in Washington, D.C. In this episode, we look at this thorny and important issue by first zooming in to South Korea, where Andrew gives me an education on a country I’m extremely curious about, but frankly know very little about. And then we zoom out and talk about how South Korea is a canary in the coal mine for the rest of the planet when it comes to the many ways that fertility rates affect just about everything else.

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Andrew Yeo

Producer: Devon Manze

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Today’s episode is about the state of men in America. Last week, the non-profit institute Equimondo published a report on the state of men and boys in America: “Many men—especially younger men—are socially disconnected, pessimistic about the future, and turning to online anger," they wrote. "They are facing higher rates of depressive symptoms, suicidal thoughts, and a sense of isolation, as seen in the agreement of 65 percent that 'no one really knows me well.'" One survey is one survey. It doesn’t do a lot of good to overreact and proclaim one set of findings the iron law of American sociology. But this report is in line with other polls and also with the analyses of experts like Richard Reeves, the Brookings scholar who wrote the book ‘Of Boys and Men.’ Richard is today’s returning guest. We talk about how complaining about masculinity is history’s oldest trope; why this time might be different; what young men think about feminism; the effect of social media on boys and why it might be different than the effect of social media on girls; and what a positive version of masculinity might look like.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Richard Reeves 

Producer: Devon Manze

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In May of this year, the Writers Guild of America went on strike. For weeks, TV and film writers have been walking in picket lines in Los Angeles and New York, and the strike threatens to bring TV and film development to a screeching halt. Historically, strikes both reflect history—the ever-changing business models behind the media we consume—and change history. The 2007-8 strike famously accelerated the rise of reality TV. Today’s guest is Matt Belloni, the host of the Ringer podcast 'The Town' and a writer with Puck News. He breaks down what’s at stake for writers and studios and answers my deeper questions about how this strike could change the future of TV and film.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Matt Belloni

Producer: Devon Manze

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In the last five years, high school sports participation has fallen for the first time on record. The number of boys playing high school sports today is lower than in any year since 2007. While travel leagues are thriving, local leagues are flailing—for football, soccer, baseball, basketball ... you name it. And this is happening, of course, in a decade when young people are spending less time in the physical world, less time with their friends, less time moving around, and more time sitting hunched over a phone. So what’s going on, and what should we do? Today’s guests are Jason Gay, sports columnist for the Wall Street Journal, and Tom Farrey, the executive director of the Aspen Institute's Sports and Society Program.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_

Host: Derek Thompson

Guests: Jason Gay and Tom Farrey

Producer: Devon Manze

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Today’s episode is about how artificial intelligence will change the future of war. First, we have Brian Schimpf, the CEO of Anduril, a military technology company that builds AI programs for the Department of Defense. Next we have the Atlantic author Ross Andersen on how to prevent AI from blowing up the world.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_

Host: Derek Thompson

Guests: Brian Schimpf and Ross Andersen

Producer: Devon Manze

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Today’s episode is about a narrow question and a broad question. The narrow question is: Is ice cream secretly good for you? The broader question is about the nature of uncertainty and truth, how diet science actually works, and how bias plays a role in scientific discovery. Our guest is public health historian and journalist David Johns, who has reported on ice cream science for The Atlantic.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: David Johns

Producer: Devon Manze

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The world is engaged in a multitrillion-dollar project to decarbonize the economy to slow or reverse climate change. But what exactly does that mean? How optimistic should we be that we can pull this off? And what new technology do we need to build to make it happen? This is a mega-pod with two guests. Ramez Naam is a writer, speaker, and one of the best technologists I know at explaining the progress we’re making toward building a clean-energy economy. And Vinod Khosla is one of the most famous venture capitalists in Silicon Valley, the founder of Khosla Ventures, and an investor in several sci-fi-sounding companies, including one that is working on fusion technology—which might be one of the most exciting and important technologies we'll ever build.

Host: Derek Thompson

Guests: Ramez Naam & Vinod Khosla

Producer: Devon Manze

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I am fascinated by sleep and also—perhaps, relatedly—not very good at it. Like tens of millions of Americans, I've had trouble falling asleep and staying asleep for most of my life. I also know that sleep is the glue that holds together health—a fact that sometimes haunts me as I toss and turn at night. Behind the fitness and health fads, what's the truth about insomnia? How dangerous is it? When do we know when we have a problem? How is it different from sleep deprivation? What have we learned about sleep in the last few decades that's most important for average people to remember? Dr. Jade Wu, a behavioral sleep medicine specialist and researcher at Duke University School of Medicine and the author of 'Hello Sleep: The Science and Art of Overcoming Insomnia Without Medications,' explains how the modern panic about sleep and insomnia misunderstands some fundamental facts.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Dr. Jade Wu

Producer: Devon Manze

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Today’s episode is about the future of the American city. Many downtowns are "wounded renditions of their once-robust selves." Offices are empty. Commercial real estate is losing value, pulling down municipal tax revenue. Fewer commuters means less transit revenue. Fewer downtown shoppers means less downtown employment. This has led some economists to worry about an "urban doom loop." Dror Poleg, an author and adviser who writes about the future of cities, talks about the knock-on effects of urban change on finance, work, real estate, and technology.

Host: Derek Thompson 

Guest: Dror Poleg

Producer: Devon Manze

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Today’s episode is about guns, drugs, cars, and a big question: Why do Americans die so much younger than people in any other rich country?

Before the 1990s, average life expectancy in the U.S. was not much different than it was in western Europe: Germany, France, the U.K. But since the 1990s, something very strange and clearly bad has happened. Americans got much richer than Europeans. But American life spans have fallen behind those of Europeans so dramatically that today, the typical American has the same healthy life expectancy as someone in the poorest town in England.

So what's going on? To unravel this mystery, today’s guest is John Burn-Murdoch, a data journalist at the Financial Times, who recently published a magisterial investigation of the American death gap.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: John Burn-Murdoch

Producer: Devon Manze

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Derek talks to ‘Semafor’ political reporter Dave Weigel about how the Trump indictment could reshape the election—or turn out to be a big ole nothing burger. But before that, Norman Eisen, a lawyer who served as cocounsel for the House Judiciary Committee during the first impeachment and trial of Donald Trump, argues that Alvin Bragg's case is much stronger than the conventional wisdom.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_

Host: Derek Thompson

Guests: Norman Eisen and Dave Weigel

Producer: Devon Manze

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Today, we go wading in the murky waters of 2023 wellness trends. We’re talking cold plunges, fitness trackers, and recovery scores. And on the more prosaic side, the real science of coffee and alcohol.

Today’s guests are Brad Stulberg and Steve Magness. They are the cofounders of The Growth Equation, a multimedia platform dedicated to health, excellence, and well-being. They are authors of ‘Peak Performance,’ ‘Do Hard Things,’ and ‘The Practice of Groundedness.’ And for quite a while I have considered them to be ideal guides in this hype-filled world of biomarkers, biohacks, and fitness.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_

Host: Derek Thompson

Guests: Brad Stulberg and Steve Magness

Producer: Devon Manze

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Donald Trump has been indicted. But what do we actually know about the case against him? What will the charges be? Is there any legal precedent for the prosecution? What happens when he's arrested? Could he run for office from prison? How does this change the Republican presidential race? What about all those other investigations proceeding against Trump, in Georgia and D.C.? Is this indictment good for Donald Trump's presidential hopes in an underrated way or the beginning of a bigger downfall? Derek answers your burning questions to the best of his ability.

Host: Derek Thompson

Producer: Devon Manze

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Today’s episode is about how we think about success—and how our high school and college systems might be teaching us the wrong lessons about achievement and personal progress. Our guest is Lisa Damour, a psychologist and the author of three New York Times bestsellers, including 'The Emotional Lives of Teenagers.'

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Lisa Damour

Producer: Devon Manze

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Sometimes on this show, we talk about the news. This episode is about the diametric opposite of the news. It’s about thinking deeply about human history and trying to appreciate the awesome length of time and the finitude of our lives. It's an interview with Tim Urban, a blogger at the mind-expanding site Wait But Why, and the author of a new book What’s Our Problem: A Self-Help Book for Societies. If you don’t know Tim and his work, I would sum up his thing this way: Tim is a kind of alien. He has an incredible talent for seeing our world as if from the perspective of a goofy but smart extraterrestrial, who takes not the 30,000-foot view on life, but the 300,000-foot view of life, and history, and human nature. In this show, we talk about … you know what. I'm not even going to try to sum up the hour. Just enjoy.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Tim Urban

Producer: Devon Manze

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Derek unpacks his thoughts about GPT-4 and what it means to be, possibly, at the dawn of a sea change in technology. Then, he talks to Charlie Warzel, staff writer at The Atlantic, about what GPT-4 is capable of, the most interesting ways people are using it, how it could change the way we work, and why some people think it will bring about the apocalypse.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Charlie Warzel

Producer: Devon Manze

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Derek answers your burning questions in a special mailbag episode!

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_

Host: Derek Thompson

Producer: Devon Manze

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Derek welcomes back the economic roundtable of Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson, cohosts of the 'Animal Spirits' podcast, to debate who killed Silicon Valley Bank, how much we should blame the Fed, how much we should blame Silicon Valley venture capital firms, whether this will change the direction of monetary policy, and whether the U.S. has too many banks in the first place.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson

Producer: Devon Manze

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RIP, SVB. America's 16th-largest bank was just destroyed by the largest bank run in U.S. history. To talk about what happened and what happens next, we have Liz Hoffman, business and finance editor at Semafor and the author of the book 'Crash Landing,' on the Fed’s response to the pandemic.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Liz Hoffman

Producer: Devon Manze

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Under President Biden, the U.S. is pivoting toward what some people call “industrial policy”—that is, using the government to support key industries, like green energy manufacturing and the manufacture of advanced computer chips. There is a strong case against industrial policy in economics: It’s the idea that governments do not know better than markets when it comes to picking winners, and industrial policy just wastes money and distorts the economy. But there’s another view, which is that industrial policy is utterly necessary to help the U.S. build an abundance of computer chips and green energy infrastructure. Greg Ip, the chief economics commentator at the Wall Street Journal, helps us separate fear from fact as we talk about industrial policy.

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Greg Ip

Producer: Devon Manze

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Today’s episode is a long one: It’s about the debate over media coverage of COVID. Three years after the fateful March of 2020, when it feels like the world shut down for COVID, we are revisiting two of the most contentious debates in this space. No. 1: The lab leak hypothesis; which is the debate over the possibility that COVID originated at a laboratory in China and not, as the official story went, at a wet market in Wuhan. And no. 2: the mask debate. And why a seemingly simple question—do masks work—is so hard to answer. Today’s guests are Dan Engber, a science writer and editor at The Atlantic who has chronicled the ups and downs of the media’s relationship to the lab leak. And Jason Abaluck, a Yale economist who has conducted masking research in Bangladesh.

Host: Derek Thompson 

Guests: Dan Engber & Jason Abaluck

Producer: Devon Manze

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This is our second installment of happiness week on the Plain English podcast. On Tuesday, I spoke with the directors of the Harvard Study of Adult Development about what makes a good life, based on their 80-year longitudinal study.

Today’s episode is about the phenomenon of rising teenage unhappiness. What's actually happening? Why is it happening? What theories make sense, and what theories don't? How can we fix this problem? Today's guest is Matthew Biel, the chief of child and adolescent psychiatry at Georgetown University Medical Center, and chief medical officer at Fort Health.

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Matthew Biel

Producer: Devon Manze

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Americans have never had more access to social technology. It’s easier to talk to friends and family members hundreds of miles away; easier to see their faces; and easier to find single people to date. But if you ask them, Americans today will say they are as lonely as or lonelier than any time on record. The amount of time all Americans spend alone has increased every year for about a decade.

What's going on?

Today’s episode is about the longest study on happiness in U.S. history — the Harvard Study of Adult Development. Our guests are the study's director and associate director, Robert Waldinger and Marc Schulz. They are the authors of a new book, 'The Good Life,' about what their study should teach all of us about the secret to a long and fulfilling life.

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How does technology shape art? Why has songwriting become more of a visual skill in the 21st century? Why are today's hit songs shorter than songs from any period since the Beatles? What happened to the guitar solo intro—and the classic rock genre in general? How did rap and hip-hop take over the charts? Derek welcomes the musician, writer, and data analyst Chris Dalla Riva to discuss the subtle and not-so-subtle ways that music hits have changed since the 1960s.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Chris Dalla Riva

Producer: Devon Manze

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Large language models like ChatGPT and Bing’s chatbot can tell stories. They can analyze the effects of agricultural AI on American and Chinese farms. They can pass medical licensing exams, summarize 1,000-page documents, and score a 147 on an IQ test. That’s the 99.9th percentile. They’re also liars. They don't know what year it is. They recommend books that don’t exist. They write nonsense on request. Today's guest, New York Times journalist Kevin Roose, spent a few hours last week talking to Bing. The conversation quickly went off the rails in the strangest of ways.

I am convinced that AI is going to be one of the most important stories of the decade. We are looking at something almost like the discovery of an alien intelligence. Except, because these technologies are trained on us, they aren’t extraterrestrial at all. If anything, they’re intra-terrestrial. We’ve taken the entire history of human culture—all our texts, all our images, maybe all of our music and art too—and fed it to a machine that we’ve built. Now it’s talking back to us. Isn't that fascinating? Isn't it kind of scary?

Host: Derek Thompson 

Guest: Kevin Roose

Producer: Devon Manze

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Since a big white Chinese spy balloon floated across the ocean and into U.S. airspace, the United States has shot down four objects over North American skies. What are we looking at, and what are we shooting at? Are these objects American? Are they Chinese? Are they human? To tell the full story of this bizarre month in aerial objects—from the balloon to the aerial shoot-out to the UFO freak-out—we’ve got two guests: former Atlantic correspondent and Substack writer James Fallows and the science writer and noted extraterrestrial-object researcher Mick West.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_

Host: Derek Thompson

Guests: James Fallows & Mick West

Producer: Devon Manze

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Last fall, three-quarters of voters told CNN that the U.S. was in a recession. A Bloomberg economic model said that the odds of a recession by the fall of 2023 were 100 percent. But we’re not in a recession. The unemployment rate is lower than any month since the 1960s. Real disposable income is growing. The economy is expanding. Consumer spending is strong. Even housing seems to be rebounding. In today's episode, Derek explains the origins of the great American recession myth, and Bloomberg writer Conor Sen breaks down the housing turnaround that could define the 2023 economy.

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Conor Sen

Producer: Devon Manze

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For the past 50 years, Americans have basically responded to the case against eating animals by eating more animals. The share of Americans who call themselves vegan or vegetarian hasn’t increased in the past 20 years. But a few years ago, I was certain that we were near peak meat, thanks to the rise of plant-based “meat” products—like Impossible Burgers and Beyond Meat sausages. In 2019 and 2020, I looked like a genius, as meat-substitute products surged. But then came the crash. Beyond Meat’s publicly traded stock is down more than 80 percent from its all-time high. Impossible Burger has announced layoffs of more than 20 percent of its staff. So what happened? Today’s guest is Deena Shanker, who wrote a blockbuster story for Bloomberg on this very topic. We talk about the spectacular rise and fall of fake meat—and what it tells us about food, taste, politics, and technology.

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Deena Shanker

Producer: Devon Manze

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If we’re being honest, the whole thing is kind of funny. A Chinese spy balloon floated across the U.S. Nobody died, unless we count the balloon itself. In a saner age, this story would be over. But balloongate offers a useful hook to evaluate the relationship between the U.S. and China during a period of extraordinarily high tensions. These are the most powerful countries in the world, the two largest economies in the history of the world, and they are currently undergoing a kind of conscious uncoupling that is having a huge effect on our economies, politics, and planet. Juliette Kayyem is a contributing writer at The Atlantic, lecturer at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard, and former government official. James Palmer is the deputy editor at Foreign Policy.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_

Host: Derek Thompson

Guests: Juliette Kayyem & James Palmer 

Producer: Devon Manze

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We’ve got a double-barrelled podcast for you. Jeanna Smialek, economics reporter for the ‘New York Times,’ joins us to break down the debt-ceiling showdown that’s enveloping Washington. Plus, economist Jason Furman is back to rehash his debt-ceiling grievances from the Obama administration, then answer some deeper questions about the U.S. debt trajectory and the state of the economy today. But first: a new way to think about the debt ceiling and fears of the U.S. government running up the tab.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_Host: Derek Thompson

Guests: Jeanna Smialek and Jason Furman

Producer: Devon Manze

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"Productivity is a trap. Nobody in the history of humanity has ever achieved work-life balance. The real problem isn’t our limited time. The real problem—or so I hope to convince you—is that we’ve unwittingly inherited, and feel pressured to live by, a troublesome set of ideas about how to use our limited time, all of which are pretty much guaranteed to make things worse."

That's how Oliver Burkeman, the author of 'Four Thousand Weeks,' explains our relationship to happiness and time. In this episode, he and Derek talk about his philosophy, the downside of constantly living for some future achievement, goals versus habits, and making peace with our finitude.

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Oliver Burkeman

Producer: Devon Manze

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“The story of 2022 was the emergence of AI," wrote Ben Thompson, the author of the Stratechery newsletter and podcast. "It seems clear to me that this is a new epoch in technology.” Ben and Derek talk about ChatGPT, Stable Diffusion, the state of generative AI, and how the biggest tech companies will try to wrangle this fascinating suite of new tools.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Ben Thompson 

Producer: Devon Manze

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Derek breaks down the biggest economic mystery of the moment: Why are the most successful tech companies collectively laying off more than 130,000 people if the overall unemployment rate is still historically low? Then award-winning Puck journalist William Cohan rejoins the podcast to talk about the biggest unanswered questions swirling around disgraced billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried, his FTX bankruptcy proceedings, and his forthcoming criminal case.

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: William Cohan

Producer: Devon Manze

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We have historically thought about weight as the mere outcome of our deliberate choices about diet and exercise. We have not typically thought about weight like a disease. But in the past 18 months, there’s been an extraordinary revolution in weight-loss medication that's putting in our hands a therapy that can help people easily shed weight without major side effects. You may have heard these drugs go by the name Wegovy or Ozempic.

What happens when you take a country obsessed with self-image and diet and tell them that the mystery of weight loss has now been reduced to a daily injection? You change a lot more than body mass index. You change society. Today’s guest is Susan Z. Yanovski. She is the co-director of the Office of Obesity Research and the program director of the Division of Digestive Diseases and Nutrition at NIH. We talk about the stakes of anti-obesity medication, why diet and exercise doesn’t work for so many people, how these weight-loss drugs could help American health care, strain American insurance, and revolutionize America’s sense of willpower, responsibility, and diet.

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Susan Z. Yanovski

Producer: Devon Manze

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Today’s episode is about what Americans don’t get about food—and the historical origins of our diet delusions. Our guest is Dr. David Ludwig, an endocrinologist who has researched and written on obesity and diet. He explains why scientists still haven't arrived at a consensus on obesity, why he thinks the conventional wisdom about calories and fat is wrong, what he thinks is really going on, and why the history of diet advice has been so wrong in the last half-century. On Friday, we'll continue the conversation on diet and obesity with an episode on the next generation of weight-loss medication, which could change the way America thinks about self-image and obesity forever.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: David Ludwig

Producer: Devon Manze

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Last year was a bloodbath for media of all stripes. Netflix crashed, the advertising market cratered, Disney fired a CEOBob and replaced him with a CEOBob, and meanwhile, the domestic box office for films remained dormant. Outside of a handful of huge hits like 'Top Gun: Maverick,' the movie business is struggling to get people to see original movies that aren’t just the latest installation of familiar franchises.

But one mistake that media people, like me, can often make is that we mistake current trends for permanent trends. So I thought what we’d do today is run through several predictions and provocations that I’m hearing from my friends and sources in the media and entertainment space, throw all of them at a smart media analyst, and see what they have to say about the prevailing wisdom. Today’s smart media analyst is return guest Rich Greenfield from Lightshed.

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Rich Greenfield

Producer: Devon Manze

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We should be living in a golden age of creativity in science and technology. We know more about the universe and ourselves than we did in any other period in history, and with easy access to superior research tools, our pace of discovery should be accelerating. But as one group of researchers from Stanford put it: “Everywhere we look we find that ideas … are getting harder to find.” Another paper found that “scientific knowledge has been in clear secular decline since the early 1970s,” and yet another concluded that “new ideas no longer fuel economic growth the way they once did.”

As regular listeners of this podcast know, I am obsessed with this topic—why it seems like in industries as different as music and film and physics, new ideas are losing ground. It is harder to sell an original script, harder to make an original hit song, and harder to publish a groundbreaking paper, and while these trends are NOT all the same, they rhyme in a way I can’t stop thinking about. How did we build a world where new ideas are so endangered?

This year, a new study titled “Papers and Patents Are Becoming Less Disruptive Over Time” inches us closer to an explanation for why this is happening in science. The upshot is that any given paper today is much less likely to become influential than a paper in the same field from several decades ago. Progress is slowing down, not just in one or two places, but across many domains of science and technology.

Today, I speak to one of the study’s coauthors. Russell Funk is a professor at the Carlson School of Management at the University of Minnesota. We talk about the decline of progress in science, why it matters, and why it’s happening—and we give special attention to a particular theory of mine, which is that the incentive structure of modern science encourages too much research that doesn’t serve any purpose except to get published. In other words, science has a bullsh*t paper problem. And because science is the wellspring from which all progress flows, its crap problem is our problem.

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Russell Funk

Producer: Devon Manze

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Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson of Ritholtz Wealth Management rejoin the pod to talk about what they learned from the topsy-turvy 2022 economy and make predictions about 2023 markets.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_

Host: Derek Thompson

Guests: Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson

Producer: Devon Manze

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This has been an amazing year for the show, and I’m so grateful for everybody who has listened. I’m off the last two weeks of the year but I wanted to keep something in your feed over the holidays, so this week I’m reboosting one of our most popular episodes of the year. Maybe you listened and want to listen again. Maybe you missed this one, and want to check it out. Or you’re looking at this feed for the first time and trying to figure out whether this is your kind of show. I think these episodes offer a great snapshot of what we try to do here on 'Plain English.' Range widely across topics. Synthesize complicated ideas. Frame breaking news and big ideas in ways that you’ll remember when the show is over. And do it all relatively quickly. No BS. No filler. An espresso shot of news analysis.

In today’s episode, I talk with the author Chuck Klosterman about why society has gotten so negative, ranging from TV and film to politics and social media. Maybe the most wide-ranging conversation of the year and, in terms of online reception, probably the single episode that I got the most positive feedback from … Ironically. I hope you enjoy! Happy holidays, and if you feel like giving this show a small gift, head to Spotify or Apple Podcasts and leave a five-star rating and review. It goes a long way. See you in the new year!

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Chuck Klosterman

Producer: Devon Manze

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This has been an amazing year for the show, and I’m so grateful for everybody who has listened. I’m off the last two weeks, but I wanted to keep something in your feed over the holidays, so this week I’m re-boosting one of our most popular episodes of the year. Maybe you listened and want to listen again. Maybe you missed this one and want to check it out. Or you’re looking at this feed for the first time and trying to figure out if this is your kind of show. I think these episodes offer a great snapshot of what we try to do here on 'Plain English.' Range widely across topics. Synthesize complicated ideas. Frame breaking news and big ideas in ways that you’ll remember when the show is over. And do it all relatively quickly. No BS. No filler. An espresso shot of news analysis.

In today’s episode, I talk with The Ringer’s Ryen Russillo about the most impressive sports statistic of all time. This is of course wildly subjective. And that’s the fun of it. Happy holidays, and if you feel like giving this show a small gift, head to Spotify or Apple Podcasts and leave a five-star rating and review. It goes a long way. See you in the new year!

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Ryen Russillo

Producer: Devon Manze

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Derek talks to economist and writer Eli Dourado about the most exciting scientific and technological discoveries of the year, from the AI toys that everybody seems to be playing with to lesser-known breakthroughs in bioscience, clean energy hardware, and precise atomic manipulation.

Due to the holidays, we will be skipping our Friday episode this week. However, we’ll be back next Tuesday to revisit one of our favorite interviews from the past year as we inch closer to 2023.

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Eli Dourado

Producer: Devon Manze

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In the last 50 years, average sperm counts have fallen by 50 percent. This isn’t just happening in the U.S. or Europe or Asia. It seems to be happening everywhere. If the current rate of decline continues, researchers concluded, the average male sperm count will fall so low that the typical guy in every advanced economy will be infertile by 2050. Harvard's Jorge Chavarro, a professor of nutrition and epidemiology, breaks down the data on declining sperm counts and tells us what it means, what might be causing it, what men can reasonably do to avoid it, and how bad it could get.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Jorge Chavarro

Producer: Devon Manze

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4 Day Week Global is a nonprofit organization that recently conducted a trial with 33 companies and 900 workers that replaced the typical five-day week with a four-day work week with no change in pay. After the six-month trial ended, 97 percent of employees who responded said they didn’t want to go back to five days per week, and most employers rated the overall experience 9 out of 10.

The pandemic showed us that so much about the way we work is an accident of history, solidified by familiarity and the passage of time. Maybe the office is where we should do all white-collar work. Or maybe that’s wrong. Maybe a two-day weekend is all people need to feel perfectly recharged. Or maybe that’s wrong. Maybe, in some cases, four is greater than five.

Juliet Schor is an economist at Boston College and a lead researcher on the four-day work week trial. We talked about how work and the economy might be reorganized in her vision of a four-day work week, why even employers might appreciate an extra day off, and why Americans’ relationship to work, time, and well-being needs some kind of revolution.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_

Host: Derek Thompson 

Guest: Juliet Schor

Producer: Devon Manze

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One year ago, we had Anne Applebaum on the podcast to talk about her essay, "The Bad Guys Are Winning." And I think you could have made an argument that this was the most important story in geopolitics. Across the world, the rise of authoritarianism—in Russia, China, Turkey, Venezuela, India, and even right here in the U.S. authoritarianism was ascendant. Illiberalism was rising. Anti-democratic forces were assembling.

But at this very moment, the opposite narrative seems like it might just be the most important story in the world. The fall of the authoritarians. Look at China, where the ruler Xi Jinping's "zero-COVID" policy is sparking a wave of protests. Look at Russia, which is losing its war against Ukraine. Look at Iran, which is rife with protests for women’s rights.

Today’s guest is Francis Fukuyama, the author of the very famous (and very misunderstood) book, 'The End of History and the Last Man.' In this episode we take a first-class tour of what’s happening in China, Russia, Iran, and the U.S., ending with some thoughts on the future of liberalism in America.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Francis Fukuyama

Producer: Devon Manze

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Americans have never spent so much time alone. And alone time is rising sharply for every demographic—young and old, male and female, white and non-white, metro and rural. But is aloneness the same as loneliness? And can we really blame technology for it? Derek talks with economist Bryce Ward about the causes and consequences of the rise of alone time in America.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Bryce Ward

Producer: Devon Manze

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Today’s episode is a Thanksgiving feast of corporate scandal and media gossip. Derek kicks things off with a big-picture theory for why everything in tech and media seems to be falling apart at the same time. Then, we turn to the corporate shocker of the week: Bob Iger stunned the entertainment and media world by announcing his return to Disney as CEO, not even three years after the coronation of his hand-picked replacement, Bob Chapek. Matt Belloni of The Ringer and Puck joins to respond to some hot takes about the future of the streaming wars and the Mouse. Then, Derek revisits the FTX scandal. We're joined by Matthew Yglesias, author of the Slow Boring newsletter, to take a fresh look at the downfall of Sam Bankman-Fried by analyzing the philosophy he supported, or at least claimed to support: effective altruism.

Host: Derek Thompson

Guests: Matthew Belloni and Matthew Yglesias 

Producer: Devon Manze

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Today’s episode is about China’s turn toward authoritarianism—and why it might be one of the most important stories in the world. If you don’t know a lot about China—if you’ve been interested or astonished from afar by its Zero-COVID policy or its alarming saber-rattling toward Taiwan—then you and I are in the same boat. I am not at all an expert on China. But I am fascinated and alarmed by the country’s politics and by the character of its leader, Xi Jinping. Today’s guest is an expert in all things China: Bill Bishop, who writes the incredibly popular Sinocism newsletter. And he has a new podcast out called 'Sharp China.' In this episode, we discuss my biggest fears and questions: What is happening to the Chinese economy right now? Is Xi Jinping a tyrant? And if he chooses to invade Taiwan, is that World War III?

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Bill Bishop 

Producer: Devon Manze

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Derek shares his thoughts on the meltdown of crypto exchange FTX and the disgrace of its founder, Sam Bankman-Fried, before welcoming veteran finance journalist William D. Cohan to discuss the history of finance frauds, what comes next for FTX, the media’s relationship to CEO royalty, and his new book, 'Power Failure,' on the rise and fall of GE.

Host: Derek Thompson 

Guest: William D. Cohan

Producer: Devon Manze

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The polls were right; the vibes were wrong. Democrats seem to have blocked the Republican wave by riding “Dobbs and democracy.” Trump lost, and extremism lost. DeSantis won, and Florida is a red state now. Also: Why is America so terrible at counting votes?

Host: Derek Thompson

Producer: Devon Manze

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The Musk regime is off to a chaotic start at Twitter. In barely a week or two of ownership, Elon has already overseen a collapse in advertising revenue, announced a pivot to subscriptions, attempted to fire about half of the staff, and then attempted to rehire some of the fired staff. It would be one thing if Elon were flailing at Twitter while the rest of social media was on a rocket ship. The opposite is true. At Meta, the parent company of Facebook, Mark Zuckerberg has embarked on a truly audacious and possibly suicidal plan to spend somewhere between $100 billion and $200 billion building out a metaverse platform. What the hell is happening at these companies and, beyond the lurid details and gossip, what does it say about the larger ecosystem of social media? Today’s guests are the co-hosts of the new New York Times tech podcast 'Hard Fork': Kevin Roose is a reporter at the Times and a frequent guest on this show. And Casey Newton is the author of the Platformer newsletter.

Host: Derek Thompson

Guests: Kevin Roose and Casey Newton

Producer: Devon Manze

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Americans are unusually conspiratorial as a nation. But in the last week, we have really outdone ourselves.

The beating of Paul Pelosi—husband of the Speaker of the House—by a Q-Anon conspiracy theorist led to even more unhinged conspiracies about the media. Kanye West has been all over the news spreading nonsense theories about Jewish control of the world, and in basketball Kyrie Irving published a social media post about a book and movie that featured antisemitic tropes and questioned the Holocaust.

What makes certain conspiracy theories so successful? Why do conspiracy theories thrive in 21st century America? And aren't some conspiracy theories ... actually true? Like, what's the deal with aliens, and 1950s UFOs, and the assassination of JFK, and government projects on astral projection and military psychic powers? It's all here in today's episode, featuring the hosts of the popular podcast Stuff They Don't Want You to Know.

Host: Derek Thompson

Guests: Noel Brown, Ben Bowlin and Matt Frederick

Producer: Devon Manze

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Skyrocketing mortgage rates. Rent prices falling by their fastest pace in years (from their highest inflation rate in decades). Buyers and sellers are freaked out. What the hell is going on with American real estate?Today is a very special crossover event, featuring one of my favorite finance podcasts: 'Odd Lots' hosted by Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal. Most of what I think I know about the housing market is a river that flows from the headwater that is 'Odd Lots' and the online commentary of Tracy and Joe. So, this is a thrill for me. I hope it’s a thrill for you.

Host: Derek Thompson

Guests: Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal

Producer: Devon Manze

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We’re in a moment in world history where a lot of big global paradigms are dying. For decades, Europe was basically peaceful. That paradigm has gone up in smoke. For decades, the relationship between the U.S. and China was one of mutual dependency and growth. That paradigm, I think, is changing rapidly as the U.S. moves toward a new industrial policy and China shrinks inside a shell of authoritarianism. And for decades, low interest rates shaped the world—the companies that got started, the growth of the internet, and the ability of governments to run massive deficits. And that paradigm is going away.

Global markets are a mess right now, and I wanted to bring back one of my favorite writers to talk about it. He is Morgan Housel, a partner at Collaborative Fund and the author of the bestselling book The Psychology of Money. We talk about what happened to the markets in the last 18 months, the legacy of zero-bound interest rates, and inflation—but that’s just maybe the first 10 minutes. The bulk of this episode is about deeper questions: What is investing for? Does making more money really make us happy? And why do so many rich people seem so miserable? If you like this episode, please leave us a rating on Spotify or a five-star review on Apple Podcasts. If you don’t like this episode, tell us why at [email protected].

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Morgan Housel

Producer: Devon Manze

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About a week ago, a new global news organization launched called Semafor. Ben Smith is its cofounder and editor-in-chief. We offer a brief history of news media in the 21st century and talk about why in some ways the news business is more like the 19th century than the 20th. We discuss what to say to investors when you’re trying to get their money to start a new media company, and debate why TikTok is the biggest undercovered media story in the world.

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Ben Smith

Producer: Devon Manze

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We’re coming down to the wire, and Democrats' hopes of holding onto the Senate and the House are fading fast. Two months ago, the story was that Democrats seemed poised to pull off an upset and hold onto the Senate despite the fact that the party in power almost always loses seats in the midterm election. But now, the Senate looks like a toss-up. It’s not just Democrats who are facing challenges this year—pollsters are too. Error margins are rising as fewer people are responding to survey calls. That means we’re flying half-blind out there: Political campaigns, commentators, and voters can’t be sure that the polling averages that they’re seeing in the news are an accurate reflection of reality. Today's guest is Kristen Soltis Anderson, a Republican pollster and the co-founder of Echelon Insights. We discuss the closest races in Georgia and Pennsylvania, whether Donald Trump is an overall help or hindrance to the GOP, and why the golden age of polling is over.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Kristen Soltis Anderson

Producer: Devon Manze

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For years, liberals have deluded themselves into thinking that Donald Trump was always on the verge of some calamitous legal defeat. Robert Mueller was made into an icon of the left. But no charges were filed. The Russiagate theory had a lot of smoke, and even some fire, but it failed to put Trump in a courtroom. At this point, you could be forgiven for checking out entirely on the efforts to charge Trump with crimes, since they all seem to end the same way. Without an indictment.

If that’s going to change, it will largely rest on the decision making of one man: Merrick Garland, the attorney general of the United States. In a recent essay for The Atlantic, staff writer Frank Foer spent hours talking to Garland to understand who he is, how he thinks, and how his approach to law could help us predict the next chapter of the Trump legal saga. Foer comes away with a big prediction: The indictment of Trump is now "inevitable." And he’s here to tell us why.

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Frank Foer

Producer: Devon Manze

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Stanford University professor Nicholas Bloom joins the show to talk about how the hybrid work revolution is going, and how the weakened connection between work and home continues to change where Americans live, how they travel, how they spend their time, how they raise their kids, and even how much time they spend combing their hair (survey says: less!).

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Nicholas Bloom

Producer: Devon Manze

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This is the 100th episode of Plain English! I don’t know how that’s possible. Thanks to all of you who have listened. This has been a ton of work and a ton of fun. I’m still figuring out what this show is; how to balance news and tech gossip and big society questions and war coverage. There are days I think I know exactly what I’m doing and days I think I know even less than when I started out. And I just want to say to all the folks who have, on any medium, offered negative feedback or positive feedback: I’m reading it.

Today, we're joined again by our first-ever guest, Kevin Roose from the 'New York Times,' to talk about Elon vs. Twitter and the deep implications of the year's astonishing breakthroughs in AI.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Kevin Roose

Producer: Devon Manze

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This week, the Yankees' Aaron Judge hit his 62nd home run of the season, and it’s triggered a ferocious debate that has a lot of people very worked up over a deceptively simple question: Who is baseball’s home run king?

In 2001, Barry Bonds hit 73 home runs. In 2022, Judge hit 62 home runs. Seventy-three is more than 62. Those are facts.

But Barry Bonds used steroids. Other sports, like cycling, have stripped athletes of records and championships if they’re caught doping. Lance Armstrong won seven Tour de France titles but was stripped of all of them. So, what do we do about Bonds and his fellow dopers, like Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa? Do we consider their records illegitimate? If so, Aaron Judge is the single-season home run king. Or do we say, you can’t just selectively erase history? In which case, Judge doesn’t have any major record. He’s just a big, tall guy who had a very nice season.

You might think: OK, who cares what words we use to talk about baseball? The answer is: I care! There was a period in my life when debating baseball stats and baseball history was literally my favorite activity in the world. My identity as a fifth grader was being the baseball stats guy. And also, a lot of people care. This debate over who is the legitimate single-season home run king has been hands down the most fun baseball discourse I can remember in maybe 20 years.

Today’s guest is Bill Simmons. We talk about MLB history, the joy of debating records, how baseball ruined itself, and who is really baseball’s home run king.

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Bill Simmons

Producer: Devon Manze

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What if, in trying to fix the hangover of domestic inflation, the Federal Reserve is accidentally triggering a series of diabolical domino effects that could screw up the global economy? Joining the show today to walk us piece by piece through those dominos is Kyla Scanlon, a writer and brilliant economic explainer on TikTok and YouTube. Kyla is an expert at what I try to do with this show, which is to explain complicated ideas in simple ways without losing the nuance that makes them complicated in the first place. I’ve learned a lot from her. And I hope you do, too.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Kyla Scanlon

Producer: Devon Manze

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A wide-ranging conversation with speaker and star podcaster Scott Galloway ('The Prof G Pod,' 'Pivot') on his new book 'Adrift,' why being a pundit means being a talented “catastrophist,” the struggles of broke and lonely men, the upside of crypto, and the dark side of the metaverse.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Scott Galloway

Producer: Devon Manze

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Last week the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.75 percentage points, continuing one of the fastest escalations of the benchmark rate in history. Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, warned that more pain was to come as the central bank fixes its eye on Sauron on our core inflation. But the theme of this episode is that U.S. interest rate policy does not stop at the U.S. border. Our monetary policy is a lever that moves the world. Soon after the Fed’s announcement last week, the British pound crashed, oil prices fell, currencies (crypto- and otherwise) fell, and the possibility of a global downturn came ever slightly into greater focus. Today’s guest is Jason Furman, the Harvard economist and former top economic adviser to President Barack Obama. We talk about the state of the U.S. economy, why the Fed is doing what it’s doing, the best arguments against rising interest rates, the global fallout of U.S. monetary policy, and the possibility that the world economy is headed for a dark, dark winter.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Jason Furman

Producer: Devon Manze

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American men have a problem. They account for less than 40 percent of new college graduates but roughly 70 percent of drug overdose deaths and more than 80 percent of gun violence deaths. As the left has struggled to offer a positive vision of masculinity, male voters have abandoned the Democratic Party at historically high rates. Brookings Institution scholar Richard Reeves, the author of a new book 'Of Boys and Men,' joins the show to ask and answer a number of controversial questions: Why do women out-achieve men throughout education? Why are men dropping out of the labor force? Why can't Democrats win the male vote? And what would a progressive and positive vision of masculinity look like?

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_.

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Richard Reeves

Producer: Devon Manze

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Today’s episode is about the science of self-talk—and how our relationship to our own inner monologue can become toxic. Psychologist Ethan Kross joins the show to explain his work on emotion regulation, his book 'Chatter' on the science of negative self-talk, why the ability to have an inner monologue can be a kind of superpower, and how to harness it.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_.Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Ethan Kross

Producer: Devon Manze

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While the broader economy is almost certainly not in a recession, the U.S. housing market is facing a painful reset. As the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to reduce inflation, the most rate-sensitive sector of the economy—which is housing—is taking it on the chin. Today's guest, Mark Zandi, the chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, breaks down the queasy state of the U.S. housing market, the prospect of a correction, what nationwide falling housing prices will mean for the broader economy, the global synchronized decline in housing, and how China's extremely bizarre year is affecting our economy.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Mark Zandi

Producer: Devon Manze

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In 2015, 193 world leaders agreed to 17 ambitious goals to end poverty, fight inequality, and stop climate change by 2030. Seven years in, the world is on track to achieve almost none of those goals, according to a new report from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

But the world really is getting better, the founder and philanthropist Bill Gates tells Derek in this episode. Around the globe, poverty, hunger, and child mortality rates are falling. Income, health care coverage, and lifespans are growing. Bill and Derek talk about the “best news in the world,” why genetics is the most exciting domain in all of science, and how Gates is helping to build the future of food in Africa.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Bill Gates

Producer: Devon Manze

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We're in a new phase of the Ukraine-Russia war. Paul Poast of the University of Chicago returns to the podcast to break down Ukraine's extraordinary counteroffensive. He explains why this counterattack is reminiscent of D-Day, why President Vladimir Putin continues to struggle to achieve his objectives, and whether the end of the war could be within sight.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Paul Poast

Producer: Devon Manze

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Hours before the death of Queen Elizabeth II, Derek talked to Duncan Weldon, the Britain economics correspondent at The Economist, about the UK's political and economic challenge. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has sent energy prices soaring across Europe, but few countries have it worse than the UK, where inflation skyrocketed past 10 percent and the Bank of England projects a deep and lasting recession. This comes after a 15-year period of utter economic stagnation, Brexit, and the clown show of Boris Johnson. How did the UK, the birthplace of modern capitalism and the industrial revolution, become such an economic and political disaster? And will the queen's death affect the nation's trajectory?

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Duncan Weldon

Producer: Devon Manze

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Students are going back to school this month. But according to many news sources, there won't be nearly enough teachers to greet them. The Washington Post has warned of a “catastrophic teacher shortage.” ABC World News Tonight called it a new “growing crisis,” and the Wall Street Journal warned of a “dog-eat-dog” scramble to hire underqualified instructors. Heather Schwartz, a senior policy researcher at the Rand Corporation, explains why she thinks the "national teacher shortage" narrative is overblown, why declining teacher morale is a real story, and what's really happening in American public education today.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Heather Schwartz

Producer: Devon Manze

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Earlier this year, it appeared that Democrats were going to get destroyed in the midterms. Joe Biden's approval rating was in the toilet, inflation was raging, and everything was going wrong. It wouldn't have been historically shocking if Democrats lost seats in November. The party in power typically loses seats in midterm elections, thanks in part to the electorate's preference for balance.

But then something weird happened. Joe Biden's polls went up. And up. And up. Republican Senate nominees starting flailing across the country. Today, Democrats are favored to keep the Senate, and they have doubled their odds of holding the House. How did this happen? FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver joins the podcast to explain the big picture and analyze the most fascinating individual races, from Pennsylvania to Ohio.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Nate Silver

Producer: Devon Manze

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The level of student debt in this country represents a massive policy error. But is forgiving up to $20,000 of student debt really the best way to help low-income Americans, or fix the nation's education-financing problems? The Atlantic's Jerusalem Demsas joins Derek to discuss the student loan forgiveness debate and weigh the positives and negatives of Biden's controversial new policy.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Jerusalem Demsas

Producer: Devon Manze

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Today’s episode is about the entertainment and media industry’s tumultuous summer, the streaming wars, a come-to-Jesus moment for movie theaters, and a dramatic revamp at CNN—which tells a lot about the state of the news industry. My guest is Matt Belloni, host of the Ringer podcast 'The Town' and a founding partner at Puck News. He tells us what he’s hearing from his deep industry sources about the future of the blockbuster, the demise of the romantic comedy, the purge at HBO Max, and the murky path forward for Netflix. He also indulges me as I try to think of restaurant analogies for all of the major streaming companies as they try to differentiate themselves in a crowded field. (If you're not familiar with the amenities of the Tri-State area, this might be a good time to look up "Wawa.")

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Matt Belloni

Producer: Devon Manze

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The economist Raj Chetty has spent much of the last decade trying to answer a very big question: What happened to the American Dream? In 1940, a child born into the average American household had a 92 percent chance of making more money than his or her parents. But in the last half century, something has gone wrong. A child born in 1980 had just a 50 percent chance of surpassing her parents’ income. So, in 40 years, earning more than your parents went from being a near certainty to no better than a coin flip.

Marshaling enormous data sets in extremely creative ways, Chetty has shown that our chances of moving up in the world are exquisitely sensitive to where we grow up. In some cities, like Minneapolis, the American Dream seems to be very much alive. In other places, the poor are trapped in poverty for generations. So, the trillion-dollar question here is: If some neighborhoods in America are like Miracle-Gro for opportunity, what are the active ingredients? What makes a place special? In today's episode, Chetty gives listeners a new vocabulary to think about success and inequality in America, with ideas like "father presence," "friending bias," and "Lost Einsteins." If you’d like to see a literal map of American inequality built with Chetty’s data, I would encourage you for this episode alone to go multi-media and visit www.socialcapital.org to see how your neighborhood fares as an engine of upward mobility. That way, you’ll have a fuller sense of where the American Dream is dying—and what we have to do to bring it back.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Raj Chetty

Producer: Devon Manze

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Bestselling author Chuck Klosterman talks to Derek about the death of the monoculture, how the internet creates cults of fans and anti-fans, and how “hating things” became a mainstream personality trait and a political position.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Chuck Klosterman

Producer: Devon Manze

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I've never before recorded an episode specifically about Donald Trump. I guess I’ve been holding out for the chaos that typically swirls around him to exceed an extremely high bar of freaky nonsense. This week, I am forced to conclude that the bar has been surpassed. The January 6 investigations in D.C. and the New York state business investigation are newsworthy on their own. But last week, federal agents descended on Mar-a-Lago, Trump’s private club and Florida home, and came away with a trove of top secret documents and papers. This investigation could implicate the president as an agent of law-breaking espionage. Or it could lead to ... nothing at all. In this episode, the author, CNN analyst, and former government official Juliette Kayyem joins the show to separate fact from speculation and to help us imagine several ways this saga could end.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Juliette Kayyem

Producer: Devon Manze

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Several years ago, the writer, researcher, and policy advocate Heather McGhee traveled around the country to report on how racism in America holds us back from policies that would benefit everybody. In her book The Sum of Us, she explained how racist fears have made us all worse off. For decades, many voters and politicians have fought against policies that would have gotten them better jobs, better benefits, and more upward mobility—because they were afraid that those policies might also help non-white people, and especially Black people.

She made another point that struck me. Progressives sometimes talk about racism in a way that is pretty helpful for their causes. “Progressives often end up talking about race relations through a prism of competition—every advantage for whites, mirrored by a disadvantage for people of color,” she wrote. “The task ahead, then, is to unwind this idea of a fixed quantity of prosperity and replace it with what I’ve come to call Solidarity Dividends: gains available to everyone when they unite across racial lines, in the form of higher wages, cleaner air, and better-funded schools.”

Today’s guest is Heather McGhee. In this episode she talks about her new podcast The Sum of Us; the indelible metaphor of a drained pool in Alabama; how progressives talk about race; and why many laws today that might not seem explicitly racist still sustain racial inequality.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Heather McGhee

Producer: Devon Manze

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Last year, somebody explained the problem of climate change to me with a metaphor that I’ve never been able to forget. They said: Imagine a bathtub. The bathtub is the planet’s atmosphere. The faucet is on full blast and it’s quickly filling with water. The gushing faucet represents every source of global carbon emissions, from "Big Agriculture" and energy companies to cars and cow farts. The water is carbon itself. The challenge of climate change mitigation is straightforward: Stop the water from filling the tub, spilling over the edge, and destroying the planet. There are a lot of environmentalists and federal policies that focus on one part of the picture. They want to turn the tap to reduce emissions. This is what wind, solar, and geothermal energy does. This is what electric cars do. It is an absolutely essential goal. But a very full tub can still overflow even with a slower-dripping faucet. So we need to think bigger to save the world. We need a plan that goes beyond the faucet. We need to drain water from the basin by pulling the plug at the bottom of the tub—that is, to suck a huge amount of carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere and flush them away. So, how do you pull the plug?

In the last few years, I’ve become very interested in a technology called carbon removal—and especially direct air capture. Imagine, basically, a giant factory that pulls carbon from the atmosphere and buries it. This technology is still incredibly expensive. In August 2022, it is not remotely close to being a global solution to climate change. But there is a chance it may be the most important technology of the 2020s and 2030s, if you understand the problem of the tub, the water, the faucet, and the plug.

Today’s guest is Giana Amador. She is the co-founder and policy director of Carbon180, an interdisciplinary organization devoted to carbon-removal technologies. In this episode, she explains how different carbon removal technology works; why there are a million carbon removal plants all over the planet already; the technology and cost problems of vacuuming the atmosphere; and why some people think this technology won’t ever work in the first place.

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Giana Amador

Producer: Devon Manze

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In our second "Curiosity Corner" mailbag, Derek takes your burning questions. He breaks down the myths around how monkeypox spreads, and blasts public health officials for not being more specific about who is most affected. He explains how, while millennials face an affordability crisis in developed countries, they might not want to trade their global generation for any previous period in history. And he answers a listener who asks whether we should fear population collapse more than we fear overpopulation.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_

Host: Derek Thompson

Producer: Devon Manze

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Why does it seem like the old is eating the new in pop culture? This year, the song of the summer is arguably Kate Bush’s “Running Up That Hill”—which was released in 1985. It was launched by the most-watched global TV show of the summer, 'Stranger Things'—an homage to the 1980s. In movies, the biggest hit of the season is 'Top Gun: Maverick'—a sequel to the 1986 film. The '80s was four decades ago!

The triumph of nostalgia and familiarity in culture is deeper than one summer. The five biggest movies of this year are the second 'Top Gun,' the second 'Doctor Strange', the sixth 'Jurassic Park', the 14th Batman-related film, and the fifth 'Despicable Me'. Amazing original films, like 'Everything Everywhere All At Once', show up here and there, but as far as slam dunk blockbusters go, the last decade has suffered from a new movie curse.

There's a new music curse, too. Total music consumption is rising across album sales, track purchases, and streaming. But consumption of new music is down. The entire growth in music is happening in so-called catalog music, or older songs.

What's happening here? Today’s guest is Ted Gioia. We talk about his viral essay “Is old music killing new music?”, the dearth of young stars in Hollywood, and the rise of risk-aversion in American culture and business.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Ted Gioia

Producer: Devon Manze

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“Every few years, American politics astonishes you.” That’s how The Atlantic journalist Robinson Meyer began his report on the Democrats' new climate deal, which would invest record-breaking sums in clean energy infrastructure. Yes, this is still just a bill. It could be revised. But in a summer of climate doom—record breaking heat, droughts, fires in Europe—we are looking at an extraordinary leap forward. So what’s in the deal? What would it actually do? And how could it realistically transform the world? Today’s guest is Robinson Meyer, and in this mini episode we break down the bill and explain why it is, to quote the president, a big f*&%ing deal.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Robinson Meyer

Producer: Devon Manze

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On Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that GDP dropped for the second consecutive quarter, fueling fears that the economy is in a recession. Today's guest is Austan Goolsbee, a professor of economics at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and the former chair of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Obama. In today’s episode, we talk about the most important details from the GDP report, investigate the curious case of America’s plummeting productivity, and talk about why the question "Are we in a recession?" is so annoyingly hard to answer.If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Austan Goolsbee

Producer: Devon Manze

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Today is the second half of our special two-parter on the state of crypto. Yesterday’s theme was the case against. Today we debate the case for.

In the last few weeks, use-cases have become a popular trope in the big crypto debate. Crypto has tens of thousands of people working with dozens of billions of dollars on building new technology. And I think it’s fair to ask: What have they built that is better than the status quo? What, as Monty Python might ask, has blockchain ever done for us?

Today’s guest is Packy McCormick. Packy is the popular author of the Not Boring newsletter. In this episode, we debate use-cases for crypto, talk about whether major products are just Ponzi schemes, and discuss whether all the money sloshing around Web3 has subtly distorted the market and hurt the space.

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Packy McCormick

Producer: Devon Manze

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Today, we have the first in a two-part series on lessons from the crypto crash.

Crypto, also known as Web3, also known as blockchain-based technologies, remains the weirdest space I’ve ever reported on. I’ve never learned so much about a topic where there were people I trusted roughly equally, whose intelligence I trusted roughly equally, coming to completely opposite opinions. People I consider brilliant think this is the wave of the future. Others are fairly positive that the bulk of this world is a giant Ponzi scheme that’s even worse than most people realize.Today's guest is Molly Wood, a financial journalist turned venture capitalist who also hosts the podcast 'This Week in Startups.' I would summarize Molly’s case against crypto in three main points:

1. It is a double-enemy of the environment—an energy-intensive speculation that pulls money and talent from climate technology.
2. It is an unregulated bonanza of investor shenanigans—Molly explains why the very structure of crypto tokens invites a kind of Ponzi-scheming dynamic, which deserves our attention.
3. Even if you have nice things to say about crypto—and we do have nice things to say about it—there’s a strong case to be made that the promises and the grandiosity is wildly out of line with the actual use cases.

The timing on this episode feels right. Last week, several employees of the crypto trading exchange Coinbase were charged with wire fraud, the first insider-trading case involving cryptocurrencies. This is our little podcast trial of crypto. Today, the prosecution. Tomorrow, the defense.

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Molly Wood

Producer: Devon Manze

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The world is kind of a mess right now. There is a big, bloody, awful war between Russia and Ukraine, which has hugely disrupted global trade, especially in commodities like oil, wheat, and natural gas. Europe is on fire, and the euro is crashing. Boris Johnson is out as the U.K.’s prime minister, and Mario Draghi has resigned as Italy’s prime minister. There are tremors in China, as the world’s second-largest economy fumbles through a ridiculous COVID-Zero policy. In Sri Lanka, crowds stormed the presidential palace after an economic crisis. In Japan, a former prime minister was assassinated. In Turkey and El Salvador, inflation and kooky economic policy has led these countries to the brink. Is this just random chaos, or is there a deeper story to tell? Today’s guest is Ian Bremmer. Ian is a political scientist and the founder of Eurasia Group and GZero media. He is also the author of several books, including his latest: The New York Times bestseller 'The Power of Crisis.' He takes me on a geopolitical catastrophe tour. In the end, we consider the meaning of this moment in history—and why this feels like the end of an era and the beginning of something new.

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Ian Bremmer

Producer: Devon Manze

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The world is on fire. In southern Europe, wildfires are streaking from Portugal to Greece. In the U.K., airport runways melted as temperatures exceeded 103 degrees for the first time on record. In the U.S. this week, about one in five Americans are living in a place that will be even hotter than the U.K.’s historic mark. And what is our government doing about it? Pretty close to nothing.

But if you look behind these headlines, there’s something very interesting happening. In the past decade, the price of solar electricity has declined by 90 percent. The efficiency of lithium-ion batteries has increased by 90 percent. Per-capita emissions in the U.S. have declined by a quarter since 2005, falling all the way to levels not seen since 1960. These are technological revolutions worth building on. But they will require that Americans get over their allergy to new construction. And build.

Today’s guest is David Wallace-Wells, a writer for The New York Times and the author of the bestseller 'The Uninhabitable Earth.' In this episode, we talk about the future of a hot world, the science of heat, the depressing state of climate policy in Washington, the more hopeful state of climate technology and global adaptation, the end of old-fashioned environmentalism, and the future of a new climate movement.

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: David Wallace-Wells

Producer: Devon Manze

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Well, that escalated quickly. Let's review, shall we?

In January, Elon Musk started buying a bunch of Twitter stock. In February, he kept buying. In March, he owned about 5 percent of the company. In April, he offered to buy Twitter for $44 billion. In May, he tweeted a poop emoji. In June, his net worth crashed. In July, he tried to back out of the deal—and Twitter countersued. It seems very clear from the company's lawsuit that Twitter is prepared to take this all the way, possibly to even force Musk to acquire the company against his will.

Big picture, Twitter is in an incredibly strange position. The company's lawsuit portrays Musk as if he's a wayward, flighty, bad-faith grown toddler. But Twitter is also is trying to force this very same wayward, flighty, bad-faith grown toddler to be the proud owner of Twitter. “You’re a jerk, and I hate you, now marry me!" is a weird message to send, even if it makes sense for the Twitter board to pursue this strategy, within the logic of shareholder capitalism.

So, who's got the best argument? How will this thing end? Today's guest is Boston College Law School professor Brian Quinn. We do a deep dive into the documents of interest here—what Musk is saying, what Twitter is saying, and who’s got the strongest case.

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Brian Quinn

Producer: Devon Manze

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Will Netflix be the king of streaming in five years? What's the biggest threat to dethrone it: Apple, Disney, or HBO? Are movie theaters back for real? How has the pandemic changed the film industry? Is TikTok the biggest arch-villain in entertainment? Where do hits come from? What is the metaverse, and will I like living in it? Derek has a lot of questions. His guests—Bloomberg entertainment reporter Lucas Shaw, and author of 'THE METAVERSE' Matthew Ball—have many answers.

Host: Derek Thompson

Guests: Lucas Shaw and Matthew Ball

Producer: Devon Manze

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Derek has so many thoughts on Elon Musk's bizarre attempted breakup with Twitter—and what comes next—that he has to enumerate them. In this episode, he goes through five reasons Elon is trying to wriggle out of this deal and three ways this saga will end.

Host: Derek Thompson

Producer: Devon Manze

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The question everybody's asking on cable news right now is whether we're in a recession. I think there's an even more important question to ask: Are we at peak inflation? If inflation U-turns, it means the Fed won’t have to keep jacking up interest rates, won’t have to keep destroying demand, and won’t have to indefinitely pump the U.S. economy with tranquilizing drugs to break the fever.

I believe peak inflation is right here, right now. In retail, Target and Gap are slashing prices on inventory. In the car market, used car sales are falling. In electronics, the microchip shortage looks like it’s easing. In international shipping, freight rates across the Pacific are declining. And most importantly, the price of oil, metals, wheat, and corn are all falling. Oil prices are falling really, really fast—and that tends to mean that gas prices will follow. Today’s guest is Noah Smith, the economic writer and author of the newsletter Noahpinion. We talk about the great disinflation, where it’s happening, why it’s happening, what it means for the future of the U.S. economy and politics. This episode was in high demand in our mailbox. And as always, keep it coming. Send your feedback and episode ideas to [email protected].

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Noah Smith

Producer: Devon Manze

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Today’s episode is about the story of the moment—gun violence. There’s been a surge of violent shootings, mass shootings, and gun-related murders in the last few years. Today, Derek investigates a mystery behind this surge of violence: Why are the police so bad at solving murders? According to FBI statistics, in the 1960s nearly 100 percent of all murders were "cleared" by police, typically by arrest. In 2020, the clearance rate hit an all-time low of nearly 50 percent. Today, half of the murders in the United States go unsolved. Why? Today’s guest is Jeff Asher, a crime analyst, writer, and cofounder of AH Datalytics, which analyzes data for local government agencies like police departments. We talk about seven possible explanations for this alarming trend before settling on one particular explanation that's probably the most important.

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Jeff Asher

Producer: Devon Manze

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In last week's instant reaction pod, Derek said he thought abortion pills were one of the most fascinating and important aspects of the end of the era of Roe. In this episode, he goes deeper into how this new technology could change the abortion debate and national politics. Abortion pills that weren't in use 50 years ago are popular, common, safe, hard to track, and legal in more than half the country. Dozens of conservative states are moving to outlaw most abortions, including medication abortions, but banning pills is going to be very tricky. After all, it’s one thing to shut down a clinic with one address. Banning a pill that you can order online? Banning a pill that goes in the mail? That is much harder. And the lengths to which states might have to go to surveil packages—or to spy on women’s digital activities in order to track down pill buyers—will be invasions of privacy that make a lot of Americans uncomfortable, even those who want to reduce legal abortions. This is the next battleground of the abortion culture war: the pills war. Today’s return guest is Margot Sanger-Katz of the New York Times. Margot explains the basics of abortion pills, and how they’ll change the abortion debate forever.

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Margot Sanger-Katz

Producer: Devon Manze

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I feel like the theme of this podcast recently has been that everything is going off the rails: the Supreme Court, inflation, oil prices, air travel snafus. Take the economy, for example. My theory for the past few months has been that the odds of a recession are nervously high. But when I start feeling myself become a bit ideological, it’s always worth asking: What if I’m wrong? So what I want to execute in this episode is a bit of a zag. Today's guest, Conor Sen, an economic columnist for Bloomberg, explains why he thinks this economy isn't nearly as troubled as the headlines suggest.

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Conor Sen

Producer: Devon Manze

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We react to the landmark Supreme Court decision and explain how it could affect the future of the court, national politics, fertility and family planning, state law, corporate policy, and more. To further explain the implications of this decision we re-air an interview we did seven weeks ago with Margot Sanger-Katz when news of the Supreme Court leak first broke.

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Margot Sanger-Katz

Producer: Devon Manze

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Lately, it feels like we’re surrounded by systems and industries that aren’t working the way they should. There's an oil shortage, and a baby formula shortage, and a used car shortage, and a microchip shortage.

Now, here comes the airline industry shortage. This past weekend, thousands of flights were cancelled because airlines didn't have enough pilots, grounds crew, or planes. People were stranded in airports for eight hours or longer. JetBlue, American, and Delta collectively canceled about 9-10 percent of their flights—between five and 10 times higher than their historical average. And some experts say that if you’re planning to fly at all this summer, things will only get worse. How did this happen? When will it end? Today’s guest is Scott Keyes. He is the founder of Scott's Cheap Flights, a newsletter and business with more than 2 million members. We talk about the origins of the crisis, the economics of the airline industry, and why the decline of business travel is a cannonball in a lake whose ripple effects are wreaking all sorts of havoc.

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Scott Keyes

Producer: Devon Manze

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Expensive energy is an economic, psychological, and political scourge. Nominally, gas prices are at a record high. Adjusted for inflation, they could break the all-time record if they rise just another 35 cents. We should be desperately curious to solve this problem; so, that’s what this episode is all about. Today’s guest is Skanda Amarnath, the executive director at Employ America, which has quickly become one of my very favorite sources of research and commentary on economics. He is also the coauthor of an ingenious plan to increase oil capacity in a way that could reasonably bring down gas prices. This episode gets pretty deep into the weeds of policy and oil markets. But it was one of the most educational conversations I’ve had on this show. And I hope you find it similarly stimulating.

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Skanda Amarnath

Producer: Devon Manze

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Most news is all about the immediate present. For instance, everything that is happening in the economy right now could be a historical anecdote in five years. But sometimes, norms change—and they stay changed for decades. I think the remote work revolution is just that sort of a paradigm shift. Here's a stat that should blow your mind: Office occupancy across the U.S. is still just 43 percent of its pre-pandemic high. That means that white-collar offices have had a worse recovery than basically any other economic category—worse than restaurants, bars, stadiums, and even movie theaters. But who is remote work actually working for? What are offices good for? And how will the remote work revolution change the way we relate to each other and the places we live? Today’s guest is Julia Hobsbawm, the author of 'The Nowhere Office,' a new book about the remote work revolution that combines history and reporting to ask a big, beautiful philosophical question: Is remote work making our lives better, or worse?

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Julia Hobsbawm

Producer: Devon Manze

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This is a huge week for economic and finance news. On Wednesday afternoon, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.75 percentage points, its biggest move since 1994. Derek breaks down what this means for your wallet and the future of the economy. Then he brings on The New York Times' Kevin Roose for a conversation about the end of the "everything boom." For the last decade-plus, just about every asset class has gone to the moon: stocks, housing, crypto. That era is over. But where did the everything boom come from? How did it change our lives, from cheap Uber rides to risky crypto projects? And what does it mean that this era is coming to a close? Derek and Kevin also talk about their idea of a "millennial consumer subsidy"—the notion that for many years venture capitalists subsidized ride-share and delivery companies in a way that was unsustainable and not all that great for the people behind the wheel.

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Kevin Roose

Producer: Devon Manze

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Inflation is the story that everybody keeps missing. In 2020, many people didn't expect inflation to rise. Wrong. In 2021, many expected inflation to be brief or "transitory." Wrong. Last month, many expected inflation to peak. wrong. In May, inflation reached its highest level in more than four decades. But there’s a bigger story to tell here. What are the subtler inflation numbers telling us about the future of the economy? And is the media being too pessimistic about the economy given how strong the labor market has been coming out of the pandemic? To answer those questions, Derek welcomes Justin Wolfers, a professor of public policy and economics at the University of Michigan. As you’ll hear, Wolfers is brilliant, straightforward, and incredibly un-shy about telling Derek when he thinks he's full of it. If you think Derek is full of it, or if you would like to drop a more complimentary line, send your notes, questions, and curiosities to [email protected]

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Justin Wolfers

Producer: Devon Manze

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Today’s episode is about two California elections and the message they sent to the rest of the country. In San Francisco, progressive district attorney Chesa Boudin was recalled by voters after years of complaints about the rise of disorder, shoplifting, and homelessness in the city. In Los Angeles, Republican-turned-Democrat billionaire Rick Caruso had a strong showing running as a crimefighter in the L.A. mayoral primary.

In the late 1970s, politics was defined by two topics: crime and inflation. Well, look around today: Various measures of crime are weighing on people, and inflation is near its 40-year high. Are we stepping into a time machine that’s taking us back to the '70s?

To answer that question, we have journalist and author Ron Brownstein, a CNN senior political analyst, writer for 'The Atlantic,' and author of the book Rock Me on the Water: 1974, the Year Los Angeles Transformed Movies, Music, TV, and Politics. So if we are headed back to the '70s in a newly waxed maroon Pontiac Grand Am, this is the guy who can tell us what it means.

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Ron Brownstein

Producer: Devon Manze

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Welcome to Curiosity Corner! In our first ever all-mailbag episode, Derek answers a Republican’s question about gun control, explains how American companies became so political, revisits a controversial Amber Heard episode, and explains how the podcast comes together. Finally, in response to a couple that requested a wedding-day video, Derek veers out of the news lane and offers some relationship advice. If you’d like your questions answered on this show, send your first name and city or state to [email protected].

Host: Derek Thompson

Producer: Devon Manze

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The Texas school shooting is part of a grisly ritual in American life. A tragedy, followed by mourning, followed by inaction, followed by several months, followed by another tragedy. What can be done? What WILL be done? This episode isn’t about false hope. It’s about information. The New York Times’s German Lopez, who has been reporting on guns and gun control policy for many years, joins the podcast to answer as many questions as we can fit into a show, including:

• Why are school shootings becoming more common in the U.S.?
• What are the most successful gun control policies at our disposal?
• Why doesn’t Washington ever do anything about this problem?
• What happens now?

Oh, and Derek will be off next week. New episodes will return in early June!

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: German Lopez

Producer: Devon Manze

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It's our first Curiosity Corner podcast! We asked you to tell us what questions you wanted us to answer, and a lot of you had the same thought on your mind: housing. In this podcast, we answer: What's going on with the U.S. housing market? Is this a bubble? Is it bursting? Why are homes in America so expensive? Why are we so bad at building houses? Why is there so much homelessness in America's richest cities? The Atlantic's Jerusalem Demsas comes on the show to share her theories with Derek, and Derek explains why he thinks every important question about the U.S. housing market has the same fundamental answer: inventory, inventory, inventory.

Keep sending your questions at [email protected].

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Jerusalem Demsas

Producer: Devon Manze

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It's the trial of the century—kind of. The legal showdown between Johnny Depp and Amber Heard has captivated the country, and Derek is a bit confused. Why is everybody talking about this miserable celebrity relationship? Why are so many people obsessed with demonizing Amber Heard? Producer Devon Manze explains to Derek why she thinks the trial has conquered the news cycle, and The Atlantic's Kaitlyn Tiffany explains why the internet hates Amber, and what it says about the future of truth, fandom, and who we are on the internet.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Kaitlyn Tiffany

Producer: Devon Manze

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America's infant formula shortage is very strange and very embarrassing. Nationwide, more than 40 percent of formula is out of stock, and in many states, like Texas and Tennessee, more than half of it is gone. What's going on? The immediate cause is the shutdown of a Michigan plant. But shutdowns and recalls happen all the time, and they rarely cause a national crisis like this. Economist Scott Lincicome says the real culprit lies in America's trade and regulatory policy. He explains how we got here and how we can get back to a rational baby formula policy in America.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Scott Lincicome

Producer: Devon Manze

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Crypto crashes, rate hikes, recession, fears, and inflation prints: The U.S. economy is in a very bizarre place right now, and Derek needs help explaining it. Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson of Ritholz Wealth Management are back on the pod to reconvene the economic roundtable. We play a game of "Finish the Sentence": The single most shocking stock market stat is …? The long-term bull case for crypto is ... ? The worst sign for the US economy is … ? The BEST sign about the US economy is …?

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].

Host: Derek Thompson

Guests: Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson

Producer: Devon Manze

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The stock market is absolutely gross right now. Everything is down, except (as loyal listeners know) the CATAN portfolio. Crypto has cratered, growth stocks have been ravaged, and hedge funds are imploding. Why is this happening? Is this Dot-Com Bubble 2.0? And what does it mean for the future of the U.S. economy, investing, and tech?

Investor, entrepreneur, and podcaster Jason Calacanis joins the show. He gives us a brief history of the 21st century tech industry, explains why this is like and unlike the summer of 2000, makes some bold predictions about crypto and the economy, and tells us how he's advising young chief executives. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Jason Calacanis

Producer: Devon Manze

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This might sound like a hot take but it's not: In 50 years, when historians look back on the crazy 2020s, they might point to advances in artificial intelligence as the most important long-term development of our time. We are building machines that can mimic human language, human creativity, and human thought. What will that mean for the future of work, morality, and economics? The bestselling author Steven Johnson joins the podcast to talk about the most exciting and scary ideas in artificial intelligence and an article he wrote for The New York Times Magazine about the frontier of AI.

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Steven Johnson

Producer: Devon Manze

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Sometimes, people ask “why study history?” How about this: American history is the weapon being used to strike down Roe Vs Wade. In the leaked draft of the Supreme Court decision that would overturn Roe, conservative Justice Samuel Alito writes that Roe invented a right to abortion that cannot be found in early American history. Is he right? And what’s the true history of abortion in America?

That’s the subject of today’s episode—a fast, factual guide to how we got to this moment, reviewing the 300-year history of abortion in America in just 30 minutes. Today’s guests are two historians of abortion in American—Mary Ziegler, a visiting prof at Harvard, and Karissa Haugeberg, assistant professor at Tulane University. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email me at [email protected].

Host: Derek Thompson

Guests: Karissa Haugeberg and Mary Ziegler

Producer: Devon Manze

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The Supreme Court is poised to end the era of Roe. In a leaked draft of a majority opinion, Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito struck down Roe v. Wade, the 1973 ruling that guaranteed constitutional protections of abortion rights. What would happen to abortion rights in its absence? Which states would shutter their clinics? Which states might expand protections? How does the growth of nationwide access to abortion pills fit into all of this? And why was the draft leaked in the first place? This podcast answers all of those questions and more, with two guests: Melissa Murray is a professor of law at New York University, and Margot Sanger-Katz is a domestic correspondent for 'The New York Times.'

Host: Derek Thompson

Guests: Margot Sanger-Katz and Melissa Murray

Producer: Devon Manze

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