May 16, 2022: The West's new fear: What if Ukraine wins?

Russia has faced a dizzying series of setbacks in its war with Ukraine over the last week:

• Sweden and Finland are being fast-tracked into NATO membership, which means Russia will soon share an 810-mile border with NATO. More from NYT
• Ukrainian troops pushed the Russians from the outskirts of Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second largest city, and are now approaching the Russian border. Latest from Reuters
• Russia suffered “catastrophic” losses during a failed river crossing on May 11, according to The Institute for the Study of War, which notes that “the military incompetence displayed in that crossing have shaken the confidence” of influential Russian military bloggers.
• The UK Ministry of Defense said that the Russian offensive in the eastern Donbas region, the focus of Russian firepower since its retreat from Kyiv, has “lost momentum and fallen significantly behind schedule.” The Brits also claimed that Putin has lost one-third of the troops he sent into Ukraine since the start of the February invasion.

On Sunday, Jens Stoltenberg, NATO’s secretary general, summed up the implications of these developments: “Ukraine can win this war.”

And that is exactly the problem according to a growing number of western officials and analysts who fear the fallout from what French President Emmanuel Macron called the “humiliation” of Russia.

Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletter

Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.
Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.