Nov. 9, 2022: How Biden and Trump squelched the red wave

Let’s start with Joe Biden. 

A midterm is a referendum on the president. By all historic measures, voters should have handed Biden’s party a massive rebuke. Inflation is at historic levels, crime is up, Biden’s approval is underwater, Democrats have one-party control. The party of recent presidents in similar circumstances lost between 40 and 63 House seats.

And yet here’s where things stand this morning:

— In the House, Republicans are expected to gain control the chamber, but well short of both historical averages and pre-election predictions. Addressing supporters early this morning — hours after Republicans thought they would have victory in hand — Kevin McCarthy could only promise, “When you wake up tomorrow, we will be in the majority.” (Like his prior prediction that Republicans would gain 60 seats, that, too, has failed to pan out.)

— In the Senate, the outcome hinges on Nevada, where incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto fell behind her GOP challenger Adam Laxalt this morning, and Georgia, where Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock is ahead by a hair but the race is likely headed for a runoff on Dec. 6. Republicans need to win both races to take control of the Senate. (Wisconsin and Arizona haven’t been called, but the incumbents — Republican Ron Johnson and Democrat Mark Kelly, respectively — are ahead in both states.)

Many of the (plausible) outcomes predicted by top GOP officials didn’t materialize. There was no massive shift of the Hispanic vote toward the GOP. There was no surge of hidden Trump voters. There was no widespread takeover of deep blue House territory. There was no expansion of the Senate map into New Hampshire, Colorado and Washington, where incumbent Democrats cruised to reelection. The governor of New York won easily.

There was no red wave. 

Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletter

Raghu Manavalan is the Host and Senior Editor of POLITICO's Playbook Daily Briefing.
Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.