Redefining Energy

As Europe has reached 270GW wind power (vs 150GW USA), corresponding to a value of 500bnEUR, we dig into the value of those assets. Gerard being out, Laurent brought his friend Mortimer Menzel, Managing Partner of Augusta Co, one of the most seasoned investment bankers in the wind sector.

After describing the past gloom (interest rates, inflation, supply chain, Ukraine), we analyse the fundamentals of the market and turn out to be very optimistic for the years ahead, both onshore and offshore.  

Mortimer talentedly explains how the risks and markets have evolved over time and what impact they will have on future valuations. Overall, he is bullish as ever.  

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 I will be chairing a free Seminar on the future of Green Energy procurement with Ofgem, KPMG, S&P Global and Renewabl, the award-winning platform I seat on the Board of, at the law firm Wedlake Bell, on Thursday 3/10 at 4pm. In the City of London. Super technical.

Link to Register.  
Renewabl day: The future of renewable energy procurement · Luma

As wind and solar become ubiquitous, the value of hydropower goes up. Hydropower is becoming the ultimate clean energy, as it is flexible and easily dispatchable.
Hydropower is concentrated in certain geographies (China, Brazil, Canada) and is almost entirely developed by State-Owned Utilities that can stomach and support the very long construction time. Bost costs and value should be measured in decades, not in years.
Unfortunately, Climate Change is impacting the reliability of hydro; we have recently witnessed  a succession of dry years and wet years, which have created stresses in the American West, Brazil and China… So, how to make the best of it? How to optimize this valuable resource?

That is the life’s mission of Janice Goodenough, CEO of HYDROGRID. With a master’s degree in Applied Mathematics and over 15 years of experience in the hydropower sector, Janice Goodenough is a dedicated advocate for leveraging the complete potential of hydropower amidst the evolving energy landscape. HYDROGRID Insight is an integrated water management & production planning platform for proactive hydro teams, providing comprehensive, predictive capabilities such as plant monitoring, predictive production planning, optimal trading, as well as constraint and maintenance management under a single hood.

We love hydro, but they need to stop snoozing. Wake up!  

We thank AMUNDI for supporting the show 

Transcripts   https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/redefining-energy--3170008    

“Summer has come and passed / The innocent can never last / Wake me up when September ends”. Like John Wick, Laurent thinks he is back.
So we have a very energetic Minutes to start September. With Gerard, the co-hosts focus on one of the key trends of 2024 which they call “Batteries, the Great Consolidation”. A lot of great experts are helping shape our view.
To name a few Aaron Wade, Tom Tsogt, Cormac O’Laoire, Christopher Chico, Chris Berry, Benchmark Minerals Intelligence/Rho Motion (Iola Hughe  and all Simon Moores’ team). We are thankful for their relentless drive to show us the future.
So, what is the “Great Consolidation” in Batteries. First consolidation in the supplier's landscape, with CATL and BYD trashing the competition and indirectly eliminating a lot of promising startups (We list the cancelled Gigafactories). Then, consolidation in Chemistry, it’s all about LFP now. Finally consolidation in form factor, with prismatic becoming the staple.
At the end of the episode, we salute the King of Solar in Pakistan, Sulaiman ur Rehman.
And also invite on our podcast Mr Faraz Ahmad, one of the Top Energy guy at Amazon, as we are very curious about his attempts to rewrite the rules for accounting for Carbon Emissions. We want to know more. Faraz, you are welcome!    

Transcript
https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/redefining-energy--3170008

How to decarbonise buildings? That’s an important topic because that sector accounts for 37% of all emissions, making it one of the three pillars of decarbonisation next to electricity generation and transportation.

Progress has been mixed. If lighting is an incredible success, heating and cooling remain a complex proposition with certain countries adopting new technologies much faster than others. Energy efficiency is sometimes a hard sell, as pay back periods can be counted in decades. Energy efficiency can be active, passive, “behind the meter” or at system’s level. 

Laurent and Gerard wander though that landscape with Vincent Petit, who runs Schneider Electric Sustainability Research Institute. Vincent has overseen the company’s prospective on the Climate and Energy Transition since 2017. Digital and behind the meter (solar, batteries) open new horizons even if regulators get confused between sticks and carrots.

Furthermore, the famous “Jevons Paradox” seems to indicate that energy efficiency gains trigger a rise in energy consumption. We discuss options to decarbonise buildings, a long and winding road, but nevertheless critical to solving climate change. We debate about the value of sticks and carrots and the efficiency of public policy support. Is there a winning formula?

We thank Amundi for supporting the show

Transcripts available here: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/redefining-energy--3170008

A special interview with one of the great minds of the Energy Transition. Dr. Doug Arent is the Executive Director of Strategic Public– Private Partnerships at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Golden, Colorado, U.S and Distinguished Fellow, World Economic Forum.  

He just published a book called “Our Renewable Energy Future: The Story of How Renewables will become the Basis for Our Lives.”   “Our Renewable Energy Future” focuses on clean energy technology evolution and where our energy system is going. While its foundation is technology innovation, the book brings a unique perspective that technology alone is not what has brought about the explosive growth of renewable energy.  

Laurent and Gerard have a stratospheric conversation with Dr Arent about the options in front of us. Digitisation and intelligent networks are going to revolutionize the way we produce and consumer energy.  

About NREL: Originally called the Solar Energy Research Institute, NREL began operating in July 1977 and was designated a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in September 1991. It runs a budget of 1bnUSD/y making it one of the world’s (if not the) most impressive R&D institutions when it comes to Renewable Energy.  

LINK TO BOOK 
https://www.worldscientific.com/worldscibooks/10.1142/q0441#t=aboutBook


We thank Amundi for supporting the show

Transcripts available here: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/redefining-energy--3170008

During Summer season, we bring you back the best of our sister show, Redefining Energy TECH, where host Michael Barnard invites Paul Martin for a very long and geekie conversation about innovative solutions for industrial heat. Two titans of our industry.
Paul Martin, a seasoned chemical engineer, share his profound insights on the electrification of industrial heat processes. Here’s a brief summary of the conversation:
The discussion kicked off with a critical analysis of the inefficiencies associated with using fire for heat generation compared to electricity. Paul emphasized that electricity not only offers cost advantages but also enhances safety. A significant portion of the conversation was dedicated to the concept of exergy, highlighting its crucial role in the energy transition towards decarbonization. Paul underscored the potential of direct electricity usage for heating processes, moving away from traditional methods of burning chemical energy.
We also delved into the advancements in battery technology, discussing how these innovations are revolutionizing energy storage and management. Paul provided fascinating insights into the practical applications of batteries in industrial settings, particularly for short-term high-power requirements.
The episode further explored the diverse heat requirements in industrial food preparation, comparing the efficiency of natural gas with other energy sources. Paul highlighted the practicalities and benefits of heat pumping in industrial processes, stressing the importance of understanding different heat metrics for efficiency calculations.
In addition to these technical discussions, Paul addressed the challenges and misconceptions surrounding the technology readiness levels and market readiness of heat pumping applications. He also explained the significance of temperature lift in heat pumping and its applications below 200 degrees Celsius. Paul Martin shared insights on various types of industrial heat, including cement clinkering and specialty high-temperature processes, highlighting the importance of efficient heat management.
The discussion also touched on the potential of changing wire types for better energy transfer and the role of smart demand and storage solutions during peak energy periods. The episode explored cutting-edge heating technologies such as induction heating, thermolysis, and electrolysis, emphasizing their advantages over traditional combustion methods. Environmental considerations were a key focus, with a shift towards electric heating for sustainability and exploring alternatives to fossil fuels for high-temperature processes.
Closing remarks from Michael Barnard and Paul Martin highlighted the value propositions and technological innovations discussed, endorsing consulting services for chemistry process engineering with Paul Martin at Spitfire Research.
This episode is a must-listen for anyone interested in the future of industrial heat and clean energy solutions. Overall, this episode is a treasure trove of knowledge for anyone interested in industrial heat electrification and the future of energy systems.    

Transcripts available here: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/redefining-energy--3170008

In episode 143, Gerard, Laurent and Michael have discussed the philosophy of Bill Gates when it comes to the Energy Transition, and the root causes of his flawed thesis. Let see now if this transpires in his main investment vehicle, Breakthrough Energy Ventures (BEV).

Michael Barnard is quite blunt: “To be clear, Gates is still highly resistant to the reality that we have almost all of the solutions we require, and that Breakthrough Energy Ventures is mostly invested in distractions.”

As we are about to celebrate the 10th anniversary of BEV, we dive into its successes and failures. And it is a complex picture. BEV has invested in more than 100 companies which is a feat in itself.  For a 3.5bnUSD portfolio, that’s an average of 40mUSD/ticket.

When you dig into the portfolio, you will get the Good, with promising ventures (such as Antora, Rondo, Boston Metals, Brimstone, TS Conductor, Fervo, Natel, Pachama, Kobold), the bad with ginormous boondoggles (nuclear, carbon, Hydrogen planes, LDES…), and the Ugly, when BEV (but they are not alone) manage to offload failed ventures via SPACs (Heliogen, QuantumScape, ESS)  or Public Money (Carbon Engineering).  

So, Breakthrough or Break down? Glass half full or half empty?  A lot of Silicon Valley billionaires have emulated BEV, with absurd amount of money chasing impossible or totally uneconomic ventures. To name a few, Sam Altman, Khosla Ventures, Patrick Collinson (CEO Stripe) Bezos, Benioff. So, Bill is definitely not alone. 

And BEV, with a string of smart choices, is probably the least bad, or best of them all.  

Michael Barnard unleashed in Cleantechnica https://cleantechnica.com/2024/07/04/breakthrough-energy-ventures-has-bad-investment-theses-therefore-bad-investments/

Bill Gates is sucking a lot of oxygen in the Energy Transition. Is he a force for good, or a nuisance? What is his thesis and where does it come from? And is the thesis still valid in 2024 or obsolete?

In this episode, we will not analyse Breakthrough Energy Ventures, his VC fund celebrating its 10th anniversary. That will be the topic of Episode 144, next week.

Laurent, Gerard and Michael are going to analyse Bill Gates fascination for Vaclav Smil and David MacKay.  We will dissect how their theories have been consequential in the shaping of Bill Gates’ vision.
We will delve into Smil’s errors, namely the Primary Energy Fallacy, the refusal to consider wind, solar and batteries as viable alternatives and the impact they have had on Bill Gates thinking, and - probably worse - investments.
We will discuss how the Oil Industry has found an ally (probably unwilling, but certainly powerful) in their quest for immobility. Elon Musk might be controversial, but at least he has made the journey in practice, not in theory.
A very heated discussion. And we are not going to make friends here. That’s OK. Country above Party. 

Bill Gates on Smil
https://www.gatesnotes.com/Numbers-Dont-Lie  

This week, it is a solo by Gerard Reid.

This is the audio of its remarkable presentation at EcoSummit Berlin in June 2024. The topic is “Batteries vs Hydrogen”

Link to the YouTube   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aAbr4byi414

Texas and California have witnessed a crazy growth in Solar and Batteries in recent years. In 2024 California has 24GW of Solar and 9GW of batteries on its grid; Texas has grown even faster with 31GW of Solar and 10GW of batteries.

When it comes to the Energy Transition, you can make the following analogy: public policies are the land and financial markets are the rain. But the seeds are battle-hardened entrepreneurs. Laurent and Gerard love to invite such heroes of the development of Renewables. They don’t build pipelines of projects. They built projects. 

One of those American Heroes is Sheldon Kimber, CEO of Intersect Power. In the past 8 years, Intersect has delivered 4GW of Solar and 2.5GWh of batteries. By focusing on a few huge projects, by developing a unique expertise in both Texas and California. Along the way, the Company has closed $5B in project financings and raised nearly $1B in corporate equity (TPG, CAI, Trilantic) to support the buildout of the Base Portfolio and additional growth projects. But Sheldon’s success is also linked to the development of a secure and efficient supply chain.

The conversation is so rich that we didn’t have time to delve into his plan to develop e-fuels for Taylor Swift private jet.  
And, as Daniel said: “Stumpf ist Trumpf”.  

We thank DLA Piper for supporting the show

After a crazy Intersolar in Munich which welcomed more than 120,000 visitors, the pace of Solar deployment in Europe is going exponentially.

Gerard and Laurent bring in Walburga Hemetsberger, CEO of Solar Power Europe, to discuss the development of Solar, and through the new report “Mission Solar 2040”, how we are on the cusp of a Flexibility Revolution.

The Report is available here: https://www.solarpowereurope.org/insights/thematic-reports/mission-solar-2040-1  

Glencore’s CEO Gary Nagle has once described ESG as “some person in the basement in office number 27 engaged in a box-ticking exercise.” And a lot of fossil fuel companies – while being less explicit – share the same opinion on ESG… and have voiced their hostility indirectly through complicit media outlets.
The ESG movement is facing a significant backlash. On the one hand there has been too much greenwashing, on the other hand, ESG has become a political punching ball in certain US States dependent on the fossil fuel industry. Some European Oil companies want to list in NY to get a better valuation and are complaining about too much sustainability scrutiny. And Larry Fink, Blackrock CEO, went in the last four years from hero to zero of the ESG wave.
Going back a few years a lot of the ESG popularity was linked to an overweighting of Tech and Luxury stocks which performed wonderfully, a trend partially reversed by the war in Ukraine and the rise of interest rates. In 2024, we have seen outflows in ESG labelled funds from a peak three years ago. Still, they represent, according to the FT, a 7tnUSD pot of money, so it is a big industry.

We’re not experts… but a system that rates ExxonMobil higher than Tesla on ESG raises eyebrows.

To add insult to injury, there is a multiplication of standards and regulations (CSRD, SFDR) which make the whole ESG universe very confusing. There are byzantine debates about passive vs active management. There are endless conversations about the adequacy of “engagement” and if shareholders should behave as activists. And finally, there is a clear transatlantic drift when it comes to that issue.

We are totally lost! 

To try to understand better if ESG is dead, or if it will have to reinvent itself, we bring in Jean Jacques Barberis Deputy CEO and Head of Institutional and Corporate Clients Division & ESG at Amundi. Amundi is EU’s largest EU Asset Manager and a leader in Green investing. Jean-Jacques Barbéris is currently responsible for the global development of the institutional business at Amundi. With Jean Jacques, Laurent and Gerard take no prisoners and call a spade a spade… and then realise that Paris-aligned targets are for real, that “engagement” with companies deliver results, and that a proper investment strategy starts to yield results.

We thank DLA Piper for supporting the show.

We bring in Nick Wayth, CEO of Energy Institute (EI), for the release of the 73rd Edition of the Statistical Review of World Energy. The Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy™ analyses data on world energy markets from the prior year.
Previously produced by bp, the Review has been providing timely, comprehensive and objective data to the energy community since 1952. The Strategic Review is now a collaboration between the EI, KPMG, Kearney and Heriot University. Five key stories emerge from the 2023 data:

1. Record global energy consumption, with coal and oil pushing fossil fuels and their emissions to record levels
2. Solar and wind push global renewable electricity generation to another record level
3. Ongoing Ukraine conflict cements gas rebalancing in Europe  
4. Dependence on fossil fuels in major advanced economies is likely to have peaked
5. Growth economies struggle to curb fossil fuel growth, but renewables accelerate in China   

Although we disagree on the message and question the concept of Primary Energy (super misleading), we salute the consistency and comprehensiveness of that Report. Keep them coming.

https://www.energyinst.org/statistical-review

UK is at the nexus of the subsea interconnector’s new economy. Great Britain is connected to Continental Europe by 8 interconnectors representing up to 15% of its power consumption.

Subsea cables are now a growing industry because of the benefits they bring to the grids, such as resiliency, capacity, lower prices, and renewable energy balancing. Alongside batteries and pumped Hydro, interconnectors are the best flexible green infrastructure currently available on our road to net-zero.

How has the technology evolved over the recent years? What are the economics in terms of CAPEX and OPEX? What are the revenue models? Is there a role for infrastructure investor? What are the technological challenges? How are the permitting and regulatory frameworks? How far and how deep will we go in the development of interconnectors, as we start hearing about transcontinental projects. 

To answer all those questions, we have invited Rebecca Sedler, aka “The Mother of Interconnectors” (reference to Games of Throne). After a long career at E.ON and EDF, Rebecca is Managing Director of the Interconnectors business for UK National Grid. We will start by the Viking Link, her more recent achievement, linking GB to Denmark with a 750km cable and only 3.7% loss. Finally, we will talk about the bright future of subsea interconnectors.

“We are going to America”  www.nato-l.org 

https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/26/climate/green-energy-wars-undersea-cables-intl?cid=ios_app


We thank Amundi for supporting our show. EU Largest Asset Manager and leader in Green investing.

Laurent interviews Georgios Stassis, PPC’S CEO, during Eurelectric Power Summit 24.

PPC, the Greek Utility, is a remarkable turnaround story: from a soviet-style dinosaur a few years ago, PPC has become a thriving forward-looking profitable modern Utility.
With Georgios, we discuss the investment in renewables, the phase out of lignite, digitisation, the investment in new segments (Datacenters, E Mobility, Demand Response…) and share an overview of regional integration with interconnectors and the successful acquisition of Enel Romania.

And, to crown it all, a Quiz: Eurelectric or AC/DC?

In April, we did Ep129 Minutes about China and announced the interview with a real expert. Here it is.
With David Fishman, an American based in Shanghai, we dig deep into China’s Energy Transition. We try to reconcile the rise of renewables and the rise of coal use. We try to decipher what is decided locally and nationally. We investigate what is the result of command-and-control measures vs market forces. We cover wind, solar, batteries, EVs. Our goal is not to give good points or bad points, our mission is to share with our listeners the fascinating but complex picture of what is happening in China. And we debunk a lot of the cliches that we read in the Western media.
To paraphrase Churchill: “A riddle wrapped in mystery inside an enigma”.
As the US and the EU are becoming more and more wary and protectionist in relation to China’s progresses in clean technologies, we try to stay neutral when it comes to subsidies, “overcapacity” and real advances made by China Inc.
Beyond those cliches, we talk about human capital and the fundamental concern about energy security which are powerful drivers boosting the Chinese energy transition. In David’s opinion, China is turning the corner on Coal and Fuels, and we might already have seen peak emissions. And we like that!  

For institutions which would like to partner with our show, please ask for our media kit.  

We thank Amundi for suppiorting our show. 

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David Fishman is an economic consultant at the Lantau Group specializing in the Chinese power sector. His work includes regulatory and commercial intelligence for Chinese nuclear power, solar, wind, and distributed energy markets. His specific experience includes Chinese power market and policy intelligence and forecasting, solar and wind pricing forecasts, renewable asset transactional due diligence, China business matchmaking, and green power procurement planning and execution for multinationals with factories in China.   Check David Fishman on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/china-electricity-2023-statistics-summary-david-fishman-mknic?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios&utm_campaign=share_via  

Last week, Laurent was in Athens for the spectacular Eurelectric Summit (we will talk more about it in 2 weeks’ time, with a special Episode) meanwhile, we bring in our friend Jan-Michael Hess, organiser of the Berlin EcoSummit 4-5 June to discuss Clean Tech and his annual gathering of more than 100 Start-Ups and hundreds of investors.
If you don’t have your tickets (yet) https://ecosummit.net/  

"McKinsey, BCG and S&P Global Commodity Insights project electricity demand tied to data centers to increase at a CAGR of 15% through 2030." “Booming AI demand threatens global electricity supply (FT)”. Media and consultants have recently raised the alarm about the unquenchable energy thirst of AI and datacentres.  Can we believe those predictions or is it another scaremongering wave like we saw 15 years ago, when prophets predicted that the internet would soon consume 50% of the world power?

Laurent and Gerard prefer to go directly to the source. So, we have invited Michael Terrell, Senior Director Energy and Climate at Google. Google is one of the Top 5 purchasers of Green Electricity in the world, and Michael is one of the key architects for providing 24/7 green power to their 28 datacenters around the world.

With Michael, we analyse why datacenters consume so much energy. We also discuss why the overall grid has not melted down despite ominous predictions a decade ago, as energy efficiency improvements have been spectacular. We talk about fostering the purchase of green energy and especially 24/7. We discuss new tech, whether software (Tapestry) or hardtech (geothermal, nuclear, LDES) and why Google and others BigTech are fostering them. Finally, we discuss the development of AI and its impact on the future demand.

All in all, a great discussion but more importantly a very optimistic dialogue, where we see that we – the Energy Transition Brotherhood – are a force for good and we will defeat – easily – the old guard of fossil fuel lobbyists and scaremongers.   

We thank Amundi for supporting our show

We bring in the star of the week, Ember’s Dave Jones, to discuss the Global Electricity Review 2024, published last week.
Main take aways (thank you Nat Bullard): 

• Renewable sources (hydro, wind, solar, geothermal, biomass) are now 30% of global electricity supply.
• Solar generation increased 23% yoy; wind 10%.
• Fossil fuel generation increased 0.8%.

If not for a decline in hydro production, renewables would have met almost the entirety of the global increase in electricity demand.
We are entering a new era of electricity with three great flexors acting on a complex and growing supply mix:

1. Continued growth of wind+solar increasing global clean electron supply
2. Variations in hydro and nuclear production
3. Demand driven by electrification, data, and global wealth

 https://ember-climate.org/insights/research/global-electricity-review-2024/

 
We partner with EcoSummit Berlin, the annual unique gathering for startups and investors to discuss to decarbonise our economy and save our climate. Berlin 4-5 June. If you don’t have your tickets (yet) https://ecosummit.net/

Finally Happy Anniversary to Paul Chapman and his excellent podcast HC Insider who is about to change name to HC Commodities podcast. 200th episode. Really if you are interested in Commodities markets, from Oil to Power to Metals to Ags, Trading , they are the best.

Distribution grids are facing new challenges. On the one hand, they experience a growth of local demand, with EV charging, heat pumps and datacenters. On the other, they must accommodate with the fast deployment of decentralised energy such as rooftop solar and batteries. 
How to reconcile those challenges while maintaining grid stability? And how can Utilities, hooked up on rates and CAPEX start thinking differently and adopt new technologies? Beyond the regulatory changes and technical investments, some cultural shifts need to be implemented. And a lot of solutions are digital.
That’s the job of our guest, Robert Denda. Robert is CEO of Gridspertise, a new company carved out two years ago out of ENEL. Previously, he was Head of Innovation & Industrialization (since June 2021) at the Enel Global Infrastructure and Networks and Head of Network Technology and Innovation (since June 2015) at the same business line of the Enel Group, leading the development of and application of digital grid technologies at the largest privately-owned international operator of power distribution grids, serving 74 million customers.  

Gridspertise today is an independent company jointly controlled by is a 50/50 JV between Enel and investment fund CVC Capital Partners, valued almost 1bnEUR, headquartered in Italy but also present in Spain, Brazil, USA, Germany and Scandinavia the Nordics. Its Enterprise Value was valued 625M EUR at the time of the transaction, with potential deferred payments that could bring the enterprise value up to 1bn EUR.

Our conversation encompasses several themes, from smart meters to sensors, from cyber security to AI, from performance to business trends. Solutions are being implemented daily to speed up the Energy Transition.   

We thank Amundi, EU largest Asset Manager, for supporting the show

We hear conflicting messages regarding the status of the EV market. On the bright side, IEA predicts 17mEV to be sold this year, EV and Hybrids reach 50% market share in China for Q1, more than 500 EV models are currently on the market. On the dark side, Tesla and BYD deliveries were down in Q1_24, Tesla revenues were down 9% compared to Q1_23 and the price war has cut the EPS in 2.

Has Tesla lost its mojo or will Elon refocus and reboot. Lots of announcements, but also a 10% cut in the workforce, and a depressed share price. Meanwhile the “Oil Street Journal” and other publications have been repeating ad nauseum (but falsely) that the EV Story is over.

In fact, EV sales in Q1 2024 were 21% higher than Q1 2023. China led the way with at 31% growth with the US and Canada at 13%, and EU and EFTA trailing behind at a 7%. Removal of the BEV subsidies in Germany showing their full impact there.

There are also a lot of questions about protectionism, as Elon Musk just declared that “Chinese automakers would "demolish" most of the world's other car companies if there were no trade barriers. Our observation is generally that the Chinese car companies are the most competitive car companies in the world,"

To discuss this and the future of the EV market, Laurent brought James Carter. James is a friend of the show and one of the top Auto experts in the world based in Toronto, Canada.

And Gerard will be back with us next week. He was simply too busy successfully selling our German Rooftop Solar company Febesol to Thermondo. But that is a story for another day.

The pod has just been named number 1 Energy Transition show. Thank you, guys. We love you all.

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PS: when referring to our friend Roger Atkins, Laurent said “Shanghai Auto Show”. Oooops its was Beijing Auto China from which he brings back wondrous stories, including a meeting with the legend Robin Zheng, CATL founder.  

Laurent and Gerard have a rapid overview of what’s going on regarding the Energy Transition in China and its political implication in the West.
Record production of this, record production of that, overcapacity everywhere…
We babble a lot, rant a bit, and conclude that we need to invite a real expert on the show.  

What is the value of green electrons? Hard to say. Depends where, depends when. What is sure is that, in view of recent regulations and corporate commitments, they must be tracked.

From an annual basis, we are now moving to an hourly basis, under the thrust of corporate initiatives like the GhGProtocol, RE-100 and EnergyTag. Behind this movement, BigTech such as Microsoft and Google see a need to track those green electrons as their energy consumption is on the way up… and it has to 24/7.

Enter new innovative digital companies that are providing those complex and data-hungry services. Some platforms go even further, proposing to trade the green attributes of electrons. Renewabl is one of them.

Lead by the charismatic JP Cerda, Renewabl is one of the most advanced of those startups. The company is the recent winner of the "2024 Energy Tech Challengers Award" in the FinTech category

JP Cerda has a long history of trading green commodities, first at Shell and Orsted. Then a few years ago he managed to create Zeigo, the premier PPA auction platforms which he then successfully sold in 2022 to Schneider Electric. JP and his team really know what they are doing when it comes to designing and developing leading edge digital market places in the green sector.  

We thank Amundi for supporting our show 

Disclosure: Laurent is an investor in Renewabl  

A good article on the GoO market
 https://auroraer.com/media/guarantees-of-origin-market-set-for-growth-trajectory-projected-to-reach-3-7-bn-e-by-2030/  

This week, Gerard and Laurent have been invited to a private event organized by Aquila Capital in March 2024, during the Global Infrastructure Conference, where they debate with Markus Wandt, CIO Aquila if “Renewables are still an Infrastructure play?”

The main hindrance to the development of renewables is the connection queue. Basically, grid operators tell developers “Sorry guys, we’re full”. A recent study by RMI has proven that this is simply not true. Grid operators are either too conservative or not incentivized to take more load. Old solutions. Old thinking.
Grid Enhancing Technologies (GETs) are hardware and software solutions that are deployed within the existing transmission system, helping increase the capacity, flexibility, and efficiency of the current grid. They can perform functions such as rerouting power flows to avoid congested lines and providing data on real-time conditions that could enable more power to flow through a line when conditions allow — thus increasing our ability to best utilize the transmission infrastructure we already have.
But beyond a better digital management, new technologies of cables are emerging, incorporating the best Material Science has to offer.  New conductor technologies could triple grid capacity with structures in the existing rights of way, while also reducing line loss by half.
To talk about GETs and new conductors, we bring in Jason Huang, Co-founder and CEO of TS Conductor Corporation. Jason is PHD in material science and started his career in the aviation industry, working on civilian and military programs such as A350 and F35. TSConductor, supported by Breakthrough Ventures, NextEra and UK National Grid, is now rolling out a revolutionary new technology that will debottleneck the Grid and speed up the Energy Transition.  
We thank our new partner AMUNDI, largest European Asset Manager and really committed to the Energy Transition   
PS: 2nd minute - Laurent got “TO” wrong: it’s Topography Optimisation, not Technology Optimisation
The RMI report is here:
https://rmi.org/insight/analyzing-gets-as-a-tool-for-increasing-interconnection-throughput-from-pjms-queue/
The story about Amazon and AI is here
 https://www.pv-magazine.com/2024/03/08/amazon-says-us-utility-can-complete-power-flow-studies-in-hours-not-months/      

This week, Gerard and Laurent talk about the 3 big energy gatherings that happened this week. Houston (CERAweek), Bilbao (WindEurope) and Berlin (Global Infrastructure Summit). Laurent and Gerard were in Berlin and report what they saw and heard.
In a simple sentence à la John Wick “Yes, I think I’m back”  

“It’s hard to play a good game when you have been served weak cards”. This is the perennial challenge of Japan when it comes to the Energy Transition. And the game is getting harder when your two main choices, nuclear and hydrogen, are proving extremely costly in a world of cheap renewables.

How robust is a business model based on a protected internal market with high margins and limited competition allowing Japan Inc. to expand abroad at super competitive prices, but stifling innovation and diversification? Japan is “Prisoner of its geography” (to quote Tim Marshall); thankfully its answer has been a world class level of engineering allowing to partially overcome its shortcomings.

And Gerard, during his recent trip to Japan, has witnessed some extraordinary achievements in the energy transition in the downstream sector, with extreme energy efficiency, retail innovations, and digital developments.

We have the pleasure to welcome Shuichiro Kawamura, who heads one of the rare investments’ funds focusing on the Energy Transition. Established in 2006, Energy & Environment Investment (EEI) is Japan's first VC firm solely dedicated to the energy and environment sectors. They support startups with innovative technologies and services in this space, aiming to drive sustainable growth and positive global impact. As of Q1_24, the AUM of EEI is around US$500MM, with more than 130 portfolio companies. There is no easy formula in Japan. Only the smarts will survive.

We thank our friends and partners AQUILA CAPITAL for supporting our show.

This week, Gerard and Laurent talk about Conferences / Exhibition that they recently attended and what they have learned there. Gerard was in Germany’s E-World while Laurent was in London’s Energy Storage Summit.

And they act as mirror opposites: "back in business" in Germany while the storage in London realises that the Champagne year of 2022 cannot easily be repeated. The storage industry nevertheless rejoices at the fall in price of batteries while the classic Utilities are being challenged by new innovations such as “balcony solar”

The two limiting factors for a faster deployment of EVs are the price of vehicles and “range anxiety”. While the former is being addressed by an ever-growing number of cheaper models available on the market, the latter is also experiencing a revolution.
You would believe that such an opportunity would be grasped by Utilities. Surprise! They didn’t move. Oil companies have started investing, but at their slow pace. In the Automotive sector, only Tesla has seized on the challenge, and how brilliantly! So, the passivity of incumbents has created an overture for talented and dynamic entrepreneurs. We have decided to invite one of them.
Our guest is Toddington Harper, CEO of Gridserve, a leading UK charging network. Gerard, Laurent and Toddington discuss all recent developments in EV charging from technology to software to interoperability. We are going to talk about Electric Super Hubs, Electric Retail Hubs and the industry-leading Electric Forecourts®.
In the coming years, the whole EV charging landscape will totally change and petrol stations will be looked at like we look at CDs and Cassette Tapes. At the heart of the revolution, focus on a consumer-centric approach and a new way of thinking holistically called “sun-to-wheel”. Charging is not a commodity, it’s a service, and only the best service providers will emerge as winners.

We thank AQUILA CAPITAL for supporting the show.

This week, Gerard and Laurent talk about three great reports that have recently been published and deliver some world-class data about past achievements, current status and the direction of travel. As a sign of things to come, European Carbon has lost 36% since the beginning of the year.

1. We are here saluting Ember and their power/emission statistics – European Electricity review https://ember-climate.org/ https://ember-climate.org/insights/research/european-electricity-review-2024/
2. Then the new bible, from Nat Bullard, available here. Everything Climate and the Energy Transition in 200 slides. https://www.nathanielbullard.com/presentations
3. And for the battery buffs, the encyclopaedia in everything batteries, which comes from the Volta Foundation https://www.volta.foundation/annual-battery-report

To discuss everything that’s going on in the PPA market (and a lot of things are happening), Gerard and Laurent bring back the excellent Luca Pedretti, CEO and co-founder Pexapark. Pexapark is the leading swiss-based intelligence platform on PPA in Europe.
With Luca, we have an extensive conversation about the recent evolutions in the PPA market. Trends, duration, size, shapes, types of contracts, risk-sharing arrangements... We try to lay out how the market prices the following risks: capture risks, cannibalization risks, curtailment risks, settlement risks, credit risks…
Then the discussion moves to the Tech titans and their unquenchable thirst for green power are reshaping the market for green electrons. How new innovations like hourly Green Certificates (GoOs, REGOS) are appearing and adding some transparency in the price discovery process?
We finally debate about those soviet-era industrial policies in term of fuel choices (nuclear, hydrogen) that seem to ignore the permanent technological innovations (batteries), the need for flex, and the power of the market signals.
A lot of those themes are also detailed in Pexapark annual PPA report available below

We thank our friends and partners of Aquila Capital for supporting the show.

Link to Pexapark 𝐄𝐮𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐞𝐚𝐧 𝐏𝐏𝐀 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐎𝐮𝐭𝐥𝐨𝐨𝐤 2024 Report
https://pexapark.com/european-ppa-market/

In this report you’ll find:

💡 A 360° 𝐫𝐞𝐯𝐢𝐞𝐰 𝐨𝐟 𝐏𝐏𝐀 𝐝𝐞𝐚𝐥-𝐦𝐚𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠 in 2023: Top PPA countries, buyers & sellers, and more thought-provoking data-driven insights
💡 𝐍𝐞𝐱𝐭 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐫𝐬 on the rising: Hybrid PPAs, 24/7 green procurement, PPAs for Green H2 Production, Multi-buyer PPAs
💡 𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐬 setting the rhythm: PPA pricing, market fundamentals and risks, regulatory environment, CfDs vs PPAs
💡 Distilment of our 𝐓𝐨𝐩 𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐝𝐢𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐫 2024

This week, Gerard is out, so Laurent does the Minutes with Michael Barnard, host of our sister show Redefining Energy – Tech.
On the menu this week, an overview of the decarbonisation of shipping.
What will be electrified? What role for Hydrogen, Green Ammonia, Methanol and Biodiesel? And the answers are hybrid and multi-fuels.

Links to Michael’s articles on the subject in Forbes
https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelbarnard/2023/12/05/how-will-climate-action-change-the-face-of-global-shipping/
https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelbarnard/2023/12/29/hydrogen-half-truths-keep-shipping-fuel-hopes-afloat/
https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelbarnard/2023/12/11/different-segments-of-the-shipping-market-have-different-climate-fixes/
https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelbarnard/2023/12/17/how-much-shipping-can-just-use-batteries-for-energy/
https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelbarnard/2023/12/20/shipping-still-has-efficiency-levers-to-pull-for-climate-action/
https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelbarnard/2023/12/27/what-energy-will-ships-that-cant-electrify-use-including-wind/
https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelbarnard/2024/01/05/2023-was-year-of-methanol-for-shipping-but-that-likely-wont-last/

At COP28 was endorsed the concept of “tripling renewables” – all good, but a lot of people forgot to mention the rest of the sentence which is “and doubling of Energy Efficiency”. In the latest IEA report, there is a 400bnUSD Energy Efficiency pie, almost at the level of Oil Upstream, and more than into Grids. Nobody talks about it. Buildings, Industrial, Transport. Electrification, Heat Pumps.

So, Laurent and Gerard thought that is was time. There are very few specialist of Energy Efficiency like Jonathan Maxwell.

Not only has he authored an extraordinary book called the EDGE, but he also manages Sustainable Development Capital SDCL, a multibillion Energy Efficiency fund. Efficient and decentralised generation of energy (or ‘EDGE’) solutions represent the largest, fastest, cheapest, and cleanest source of greenhouse gas emission reductions and energy security.

Datacenters, Lighting, Building, Heating, that’s the unknown world we are going to dive into. And it is a fast growing sector. Persistent tails winds such as energy security, decarbonisation and costs are powerful drivers for a continuous expansion of that sector.

We thank Aquila Capital for supporting our show

Why has the fund raised by infrastructure fund drastically collapsed in 2023. Is it linked to lackluster returns in a high interest rate environment?
At the same time, we have seen numerous acquisitions of mid size infrastructure specialists by larger global asset managers, case in point the very spectacular purchase of Global Infrastructure Partners by Blackrock (or is it a reverse take over?).
Where is the infrastructure investing going? That’s what on the menu of this week’s Minutes

Join Laurent and Gerard in Berlin – 20/21 March 2024 – Global Infrastructure Summit https://www.peievents.com/en/event/infrastructure-investor-global-summit/

After two years of irrational exuberance, we are back to earth when it comes to Cleantech investment.

On the menu this week, Gerard and Laurent are reviewing the Cleantech 100 report (15th edition). The overall ecosystem is down 40% yoy, but it has also cleaned the foam and is now revealing the future.

We discuss the 5 sub-sectors (agriculture, transportation, materials, resources, and energy) Our conclusion is that the sector has digested its excesses and is on a path to a new start.

Link to the report https://www.cleantech.com/the-global-cleantech-100/

Long term renewables assets portfolios provide stable returns. In most of the world, they are held by pension funds, insurance companies or big infrastructure funds. We have the exception of the UK with listed Infrastructure funds, also known as Yieldcos. For more than a decade, Yieldcos have been the backbone of the Energy Transition investing.
To explain what are listed Infrastructure funds, we bring in Colette Ord, Director, Investment Companies Research Property & Infrastructure at DBNumis. Deutsche Numis is a leading UK-focused investment bank leader in the UK market, the adviser of choice for listed companies, including one-fifth of the FTSE 350 index, with an average market capitalisation of £1bn, and has acted on the most UK IPOs over the past decade.
Colette Ord has analysed the listed infrastructure and renewables investment company segment of the London market since the launch of the first fund in 2006, so we dig into what was the thesis behind their launch 10 years ago.
We investigate how they delivered in terms of performance. We then dig deep into the key metrics of NAV (Net Asset Value). What is NAV, how it is calculated, how is it consistent. Then we analyse the interaction between free-risk interest rates and valuation of Yieldcos.
We conclude on their future, especially how they are progressively morphing into IPP (independent Power Producers)

An Episode powered by AXPO

Link to Bruce Huber’s paper on Yieldcos. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/yieldco-fallout-bargain-zombie-category-bruce-huber-jnbie/

First Episode on the Redefining Energy MINUTES on the main channel.

On the menu this week, an update of nuclear and offshore wind, two important (but minor) sources of carbon-free energy.

And some news on the scandal at Cummins, and their pollution cheating device, costing them 1.6bnUSD.

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/cummins-take-about-204-bln-charge-fourth-quarter-2023-12-22/

Happy new year to all our listeners.

It has become a tradition for the first episode of the year: Gerard and Laurent present their 2024 Predictions in the Energy Transition. And we brought in our friend (and co-host of our sister show RE TECH) to spice up the conversation: Michael Barnard. Michael also acts as referee to score the predictions that were made a year ago.

1. Record installation of everything Energy Transition: Solar, Batteries, Heat Pumps, EV (Gerard)
2. Massive consolidation in the EV sector – Toyota will buy Panasonic (Laurent)
3. Volatility in the Energy market is here to stay (Gerard)
4. New alternatives to Li-Ion in Stationary Storage (Laurent)
5. The Energy Transition has no plan, it just goes (Gerard)
6. Nuclear: Westinghouse takes over Europe (Laurent)

Well, the result was that Gerard won (but Laurent is considering filing a reclamation)

Now, to 2024. Our 6 predictions are:

1. Stellantis will outsource its EV production in China
2. Politics: Elections in 2024 could derail the Energy Transition
3. Oversupply of everything energy related – Prices are going down
4. Stronger top-down governance of Transmission and Interconnection
5. The return of Clean Energy shares
6. China will gain massive international market in Wind and EVs

We thank our partner AXPO for supporting the show.

Final Episode of 2023 (and last one for the MINUTES on their own channel). All episodes will be on this channel going forward.

Here are the Redefining Energy Awards for 2023:

• Company of the Year - BYD
• Start Up of the Year - PV Case
• Deal of the Year – Tesla and NACS
• Trade of the Year – Short Gas TTF
• Scandal of the Year – Venture Global and the 200 LNG cargoes heist
• Person of the Year – Jigar Shah
• Stupidest Quote of the Year - Kim Kardashian
• LINK TO THAT COMMERCIAL https://youtu.be/9EASYmElZuU?si=ygpWeT5FeUsQ0e26
• Book of the Year: How Big things get done – Bent Flyvbjerg & Dan Gardner

Happy New Year to all our Listeners.
Thank you for your unwavering confidence!
And we will see you again on the 2nd of January 2024 for our famous Predictions 2024!

Last episode of the Year. And what a year. We passed 1m downloads since inception. In 2023, we will have 470k downloads up 34% compared to 2022.

Gerard and Laurent saw the Weaponisation of Energy coming: two years ago in Oct 2021, we did Episode 60 called “the Natgaspocalypse”. That was 5 months before the invasion of Ukraine.

Two years into weaponizing energy, it is time to look back and assess. What were the immediate impacts of that crisis. How to evaluate the short-term responses (market, supply chain, government, behaviour, fuel choice). Did the Energy system show resilience, or have we just been lucky?

To make sense of all of this, we brought Andy Sommer on the show. Andy is head of Fundamental Analysis, Modelling & Meteorology at Axpo, a major Renewable Energy Producer and Trader. Andy is responsible for Axpo’s short and mid-term analysis of all global energy markets, from oil to gas and coal, all the way to European power and emission markets.

With Andy, we debate how did that shock impact the eternal debate Climate vs Security of Supply vs Affordability. And beyond the short-term consequences, what are the long-term impacts and the change of mindset that will give more emphasis on Energy Security.

Gerard (the Dove) and Laurent (the Hawk) come with different conclusions, but nevertheless agree on the path forward where Energy Security aligns with the Energy Transition.
We thank Aquila Capital for supporting our show. They have been great partners since inception.
Announcement:
Big changes coming in 2024. We go weekly.
In fact, we are merging the main show, this show, with our second show called Minutes. We created the sister-show Minutes two years ago as a separate experiment, and we have been pleased by its progression, so it is time to go mainstream.
So, in 2024, we will have our main show, not the first and 15 of each month, but the first and third Monday of each month. And then we will have a new revamped minutes (less than 10mns) where we will freewheeling discuss about a topic making the news or important to us. That will be on the second and fourth Monday of each month (and fifth if there is a fifth Monday, which apparently is quite rare). See how it goes. Your comments are welcome.

Which means, friends of Minutes, that the Minutes channel will cease to exist. Stay on the Main show for your Minutes.

This Sunday, a Special Episode. We are going live to COP28 in Dubai.

Our special guest is Bruce Douglas, CEO Global Renewable Alliance, who is spearheading the effort around the key message “Double down, Triple Up” or how we will decarbonise by tripling renewables by the end of the decade.

Bruce tells us how it is on the ground, how he is having the busiest week of his life, and how the positive message is now being relayed by hundreds of Heads of State and key business decision makers.

"COP28 text finally agreed - this is HUGE! Massive gratitude to everyone who made this possible 🙏 - proudest moment of my career so far... 😍
“The inclusion of tripling renewables in the final COP28 text is unprecedented and signals the start of a massive clean energy revolution. It is the first time all nations have recognised renewable energy as the main solution to the climate crisis, representing a paradigm shift in the energy transition."

In the past 5 years, we have seen an incredible rise of Energy Storage (ESS) on numerous Grids. Those markets, whether in Europe (10GW) or in the USA (16GW), have been created by the magic formula where entrepreneurship blended with new technology.

For Laurent and Gerard, there is not better guest to discuss the phenomenal growth of the ESS than Dr Alex O’Cinneide. Alex is the Founder and CEO of Gore Street Capital, a London based fund which now manages a portfolio of 1.2GW of batteries in GB, Ireland, Germany, Texas and California. Seven years ago, he was working out of a telephone booth with his laptop on his knees.
Alex explains the value of a geographical portfolio approach, how tech is evolving, how supply chains are reacting, what is similar and what is different in all those markets. An energy transition story which is also a personal journey of a very talented entrepreneur whose success has been recognised by the Industry as Alex has been recently received the prestigious “Man of the Year” award by Solar Media.

Alex describes the investment in batteries (compared to wind or solar) as the most challenging, but also the most important and rewarding.

And as we say on the show, it is all about harnessing “space and time” or in a more market angle “Long Flex – Short Vol”

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This podcast is powered by Axpo an international leader in providing sustainable energy solutions for the future.

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This podcast is done in partnership with the Energy Storage Summit 2024

The Energy Storage Summit (20-21 February, London) is the biggest, busiest, and most innovative networking event for energy storage, uniting stakeholders to exchange knowledge, learn and establish crucial industry connections. Taking place at the Novotel London West in Hammersmith, the Summit has become Europe’s annual must-attend energy storage event for the entire value chain.

You don’t want to miss this one – book your ticket using code RE15 for a 15% discount. Following two sold out editions, we expect the same again in 2024.
Don't miss your chance to hear directly from innovators spearheading change and make your mark on the rapidly evolving energy storage industry. https://storagesummit.solarenergyevents.com/tickets/

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More on Alex and Gore Street Capital

Alex O’Cinneide is CEO and Chair of the Investment Committee of Gore Street Capital, which he founded in 2015 as a global platform to facilitate the deployment of renewable energy solutions. His career has included senior roles at KPMG, Quorum European Partners, Kleinwort Benson, Paladin Capital Group and utility-scale renewables developer Masdar Capital, where he served as Head of Investments and General Manager for six years. Alex also holds academic qualifications from Trinity College Dublin, the London Business School and the London School of Economics and Political Science, culminating in a PhD that analysed the effectiveness of renewable energy policy in the Republic of Ireland and the UK.
Gore Street Capital was formed in 2015 as a global platform to acquire and manage renewable energy solutions, supporting robust businesses and high-performing assets that contribute towards the transition to a low-carbon economy. In 2018, Gore Street Capital created the UK energy storage investment class by listing Gore Street Energy Storage Fund (LSE: GSF) on the premium segment of the London Stock Exchange, and has since played a material role in the growth of GSF from £30m at IPO to a market cap of over £451m as of 30 June 2023. The company comprises a team of almost 45 energy professionals in GB, Ireland and the US working across finance, construction, engineering, legal and more as it continually brings roles in-house to support the fund.

A note from GSF Compliance Department:

• GSF is among the largest energy storage owners, including utilities, when judged on geographic spread – GB, Ireland, Germany, Texas and California.
• Around 3% of GSF’s Irish revenue is accrued by trading 5 MW from a 50 MW project.
• Gore Street Capital has 45 employees, plus contractors.
• GSF does not yet have operational assets in Scotland and future performance is yet to be determined.

Why should the 97% of non-French listeners of the podcast be interested in the fate of the French nuclear fleet?
With 60GW and 56 reactors, the French nuclear fleet is critical to the very existence of a European Power market as it represents 10%-15% of the electricity consumed on the continent and much larger share if you only account for zero carbon sources.
And its “health” is a key component of Europe’s Security of Supply and Energy price levels. Furthermore, beyond Europe, a well-functioning French nuclear fleet reduces the need for LNG imports.
20 years ago, EDF was the most powerful utility in the world, producing 420TWh of carbon free power and about to be privatised to reach a 200bnEUR valuation. 20 years later, plagued by debt, major outages, financial losses, and poorly timed government interventions, EDF had to re-nationalised.
Rather than relitigate the past or engage into sterile discussions about whether nuclear is THE solution, A solution or NOT A solution, we have to live with simple facts: a) for the past 30 years, French nuke has been the backbone of the whole European Energy system b) it almost imploded in 2022 (half of the fleet down at some point) as the worst possible moment: when Russia invaded Ukraine.
Going forward, can Europe still rely on the French nuke fleet for Security of Supply? Can nuclear continue to provide cheap power or will it become uncompetitive? How does nuclear cope with an increasingly volatile power markets where the key word is now “Flexibility”?
We bring in a Breton sailor, Emeric de Vigan. Emeric is a former trader at EDF Energy where he oversaw the short-term power trading of the entire nuclear fleet. He is now head of Kpler Energy, a leading subscription-based data and analytics platform delivering real-time market intelligence for diverse commodities and their transportation.
In summary, Emeric really knows what he is talking about.
With Gerard and Laurent, Emeric delivers a dispassionate, clinical, and sometimes technical conversation about the future of the French nuclear fleet.

PS: after the recording of this episode, EDF and the French government found an agreement on the price of power for the current nuclear fleet: 70EUR/MWh (vs 42EUR/MWh under ARENH) More here: https://www.ft.com/content/e2fc3abf-4803-4561-8ef2-0c77fd2d07a8

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If you want to know more about the current political and economic conundrum about French nuclear, please read this excellent presentation by Yves Marignac, Institut Negawatt https://seafile.institut-negawatt.com/f/a565a5e04bcc4615b301/


This podcast is powered by Axpo an international leader in providing sustainable energy solutions for the future.

We hear a lot about Climate Tech, and the VC investments about to revolutionize and accelerate the Energy Transition. Gerard and Laurent wanted to know more. And there is no better place than Silicon Valley to hear it directly from the source.

What are the trends? Where to invest? What strategy?

There is no better guest than Dr. Carolin Funk, Partner at Blue Bear Capital, to provide an exceptional vision of the current Climate Tech environment.

Blue Bear is a Silicon Valley- based venture capital and early growth equity firm driving the expansion of digital technologies into multibillion-dollar verticals across the energy, infrastructure, and climate industries. Blue Bear's portfolio covers operational AI, IoT, and cybersecurity technologies, all deployed with enterprise customers to drive connectivity and efficiency across the world's most critical industries.

We deep dive into Blue Bear’s investments thesis, how they analyse hundreds of opportunities per year to select only 4-6 investments. What quality are they looking for in terms of TAM, teams and what exits are possible. Blue Bear is not your regular VC fund which strategy is sometimes described as “spraying and praying”. Their investments are highly concentrated and the added value to management is second to none. Blue Bear is royalty when it comes to Climate Tech. Having Blue Bear at your cap table gives you an additional aura when you’re an entrepreneur.
We thank our most faithfull partner Aquila Capital, one of the most successful infrastructure fund in Europe

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Finally, we have put an intro music (The Persuaders - 1971)
Tell us if you like it or not. We love all our listeners.

Honestly, we have struggled to find a suitable title for this Episode. We thought of and then abandoned catchier titles such as “Withering Wind”, “Have we reached peak wind?” and even “Wind – WTF”. Finally, we settled for a more optimistic headline.

Still, after a great decade, the Wind industry is facing serious head winds. After 2020 and 2021: record years – almost 100GW (incl 10% - 20% offshore), 2022 saw the market shrink down to 77GW. Dominated by China, US, EU, Brazil. Wind is now four times smaller than solar.

Struggling OEMs, social licenses, slow grid connections, supply chain inflation, botched auctions, write downs, rising interest rates, local content requirements… the list goes on and on.

Wind trends seem to have massively decoupled from the thriving duo Solar + Battery. How deep is the Wind Energy crisis? 1TW has been reached and there are massive plans that don’t seem to correspond to the current health of the supply chain. Have we reached peak wind?

We bring on our friend Rosie Barnes, one of the top wind observers in the world, and we try to categorize each issue, analising which are cyclical and which are structural. Can we endlessly grow the size of the Turbines? Not only from a technical point of view, but also from a logistical aspect and a financial perspective. Is there a real Chinese challenge?

We tackle all those points in a heated conversation where opinions are hard to reconcile. We agree only on a few things: the race towards bigger sizes must stop. OEMs must regroup and accept to pause any innovation, deliver longer series, and reconstitute their profitability. The wind industry needs to have a hard look at itself so as to re-emerge stronger in the coming years, as it will transform itself from a growth industry to a value industry

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An episode done in partnership with Wind Europe.
WindEurope is an association promoting the use of wind power in Europe. Based in Brussels it has over 600 members, which are active in over 50 countries.

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This podcast is powered by Axpo an international leader in providing sustainable energy solutions for the future. In the Nordics, Axpo has been a pioneer within Trading and Origination services for the last 20 years.

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Links to Rosie on Social Media
- Engineering with Rosie: https://www.youtube.com/@EngineeringwithRosie
- Uptime podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-uptime-wind-energy-podcast/id1504249857

The smaller the grid, the higher the price. Islands have been plagued forever by a higher price of power. This is an inherent consequence of their small scale. Add on the top some natural catastrophes, and you end up with a poor and costly service for consumers.
The good news is that there is a new generation of Utility managers which has started to tackle the problem. Of course, results are unperfect, as for one Hawaii there is one Puerto Rico. It is not just about money; it is about changing the culture and the rapid adoption of new technologies.
To illustrate what can be done at reasonable budgets, we have invited Steve Berberich, CEO of Jamaica Public Service Company Limited (JPS). After running the California ISO for a decade, he has opted for a new challenge rather than enjoy a well-deserved retirement. Jamaica’s energy system is highly dependent on high cost imported fossil fuels; petroleum imports account for over 80 percent of electricity production. Furthermore, electricity theft is a massive problem. Finally, Jamaica is always at the mercy of a devastating hurricanes.
Jamaica Public Service Company Limited (JPS) is a privately held integrated electric utility company and the sole distributor of electricity in Jamaica. The Company is engaged in the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity, and also purchases power from a number of Independent Power Producers (IPPs). The change of attitude is to present this stable island of 3m as a perfect testing ground for all possible technological innovations. JPS invites all innovations to be rolled out in Jamaica, which then can leapfrog some legacy part of the industry.
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This Episode partners with Bruce Douglas’ Global Renewables Alliance Let’s triple renewables in the next ten years.
https://globalrenewablesalliance.org/
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The Episode is sponsored by PV CASE. PV CASE is the ultimate design software for solar PV developers from the earliest stages of planning all the way to the procurement phase. https://pvcase.com/RedefiningEnergy
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Finally, Laurent and Gerard would like to thank all our listeners as we have reached 1,000,000 downloads across all our shows. The main show will likely pass that bar in November. We will celebrate big time.

At Cop26 was launched the Global Methane Pledge to catalyse action to reduce methane. The problem is that no one really knew how much methane leaked nor who emitted what. Even the emitters didn’t have a clear view of the problem.

First came satellites, that provided a regional assessment of the problem. But they only solved a fraction of the equation. In order to get more granular and be able to precisely identify methane leaks and attribute them, new technologies had to be applied. Sensors are now carried by planes, drones or are stationary. And their constant monitoring finally allows the methane to be tracked at a micro level. The combination of those different technologies has revolutionised the tracking of methane leaks and help fix them.

We have the pleasure of welcoming an old friend of the show, Gregg Rotenberg, a 20-year clean tech veteran and CEO Kairos Aerospace. Kairos is the global leader in mitigating methane emissions. Kairos and alongside others like MIQ, is firmly leading the methane chase.
And it’s just the beginning, because, if the US is starting to fix the problem, other countries like Venezuela, Mexico, Turkmenistan, Iraq or Libya couldn’t care less and are totally irresponsible when it comes to methane. Certainly, a good subject of discussion for COP28.
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Useful links;
https://kairosaerospace.com/
https://www.basinwide.org/


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The Episode is delivered in partnership with the Energy Institute. www.energyinst.org
A supporter of the Methane Guiding Principles and Aiming for Zero initiatives, the Energy Institute and its industry partners are working to make energy lower carbon, safer and more efficient.

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The Episode is sponsored by PV CASE. PV CASE is the ultimate design software for solar PV developers from the earliest stages of planning all the way to the procurement phase.
https://pvcase.com/RedefiningEnergy

Geothermal has been around for decades and always considered part of the Energy Transition. Unfortunately, its development has been limited to very specific geographical location (US West Coast, Iceland, Japan, Philippines, Indonesia), basically the Ring of Fire. Those historical techniques, called “hydrothermal” have proven quite niche and, in the US, only represented 4GW of capacity or less than 0.32% of the global fleet.
We believe the whole sector is on the cusp of an exponential growth, as new drilling techniques are now arriving at maturity. “Advanced geothermal”, based on the Oil & Gas expertise in fracking and horizontal drilling can be installed pretty much everywhere. It aims to provide much-needed 24/7 clean electricity and heat at competitive costs and small footprint. The recent successes of a start up called Fervo Energy have been very publicized.
There are also space-age new technologies like plasma and loop. Such a great universe of possibility.

Our guest, Cindy Taff is a seasoned geothermal developer who leads a startup called Sage Geosystems. Sage is a Houston-based technology company focused on energy storage and geothermal solutions for a sustainable energy future. Their long-duration energy storage solutions are ready to scale now at a cost that beats pumped hydropower storage and lithium-ion batteries. Prior Sage, Cindy had a 35-year career in the O&G industry, most recently as VP of Shell's global Unconventional Wells operations where she led a team of over 350 Shell staff and 1,200 contractors across five countries.

Alongside Wind and Solar, Geothermal was the missing piece to recreate Earth, Wind and Fire, the holy trinity of renewables. But it’s all going to change from now on.

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The podcast is powered by Axpo. We feel better with Axpo.

After a decade in obscurity, carbon offsets have resurrected in recent years as more companies are targeting net zero. Volumes and prices have picked up in 2021-22 to create a 2bn USD market that some institutions predict could rise to 50bnUSD by the end of the decade. But the market is non-regulated, very opaque and shrouded in incomprehensible jargon.
Sounds familiar? Is carbon the new crypto? Are bad credits a bug or a feature of the system? Why do Companies think that carbon credits could be a solution on their net-zero journey?
There are very heated debates around Carbon Credits/Carbon Offsets. They are loathed by very opiniated experts following spectacular failures or blatant frauds. On the other hand, some reasonable people are trying to sort out the mess while establishing, in the absence of any national or international regulations, what could differentiate a “good credit” from a “bad credit”.
We bring in one the savviest expert of the voluntary carbon markets, Guy Turner, who will lay out the controversies and explain what a good credit is. Guy Turner, one of the original members of Bloomberg New Energy Finance, owns and runs Trove Research. Trove Research is the most respected and comprehensive source of information on the Carbon Market.
With Guy we go from detailed concepts to the big picture and try to avoid the alphabet soup which has plagued the industry. A great conversation to set things in perspective.
Useful links

• Who do define good credits: www.icvcm.org
• How to REALLY become carbon neutral https://vcmintegrity.org/
• Guy Turner’s company: https://trove-research.com/

The show is powered by AXPO, green electricity provider for decades.

As the growth of the EV market and Energy Storage continues unabated, we wanted to know what the current State of Play in the Battery industry is.
In 2023, China dominates the Li_Ion battery market and its main companies, BYD and CATL are – alongside Tesla – blazing the trail of new technologies and performances. Are there options beyond Lithium? How much progress have the battery technologies recently made? Where is the path forward for all the announced chemistries? Is vertical integration a real trend? Can the US and EU catch up?

We discuss with Cormac O’Laoire, Managing Director at Electrios Energy, a Hong-Kong based expert; it becomes obvious that China and the rest of the world are on the cusp on diverging, adopting different technological pathways in term of Battery Chemistry. We talk about LFP/LMFP – Lithium Ferro Phosphate / Lithium Manganese Ferro Phosphate vs NMC – Nickel Manganese Cobalt. We talk about Sodium-Ion, Solid State… We talk prices. We try to foresee what will stay and what will go.

A fascinating deep dive with one of the world’s most recognised expert on battery supply chain. Who will win, who will catch-up, who will lose. We see clearer after this thorough conversation with Cormac.

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We thank our long tem partner Aquila Capital whithout whom this show wouldn't probably exist.

Live from Brussels, on the 20th of June 2023, we were invited to interview Leonard Birnbaum. Since he came last on the show (Ep50), the whole Energy Sector has been through hell with Russia invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent near-death experience of 2022.
Leonard Birnbaum is the CEO of the giant German Utility E.ON and also president of Eurelectric, the sector association which represents the common interests of the electricity industry at pan-European level.
We have a very lively debate about how E.ON survived the energy crisis. What changes he had to be undertaken, how luck played its part, but also the “need for speed”.
Other key lessons were the end of tolerance for weaknesses, the acceleration of digitisation and total engagement with their customers. We then moved the conversation to the proposed reform of the Energy Market that regulators are keen to put in place. Is it too little too late or, on the opposite, a solution in search of a problem.
In its manifesto, Eurelectric wants to focus in the coming years on three priorities:

• Security of supply
• Stronger & more digitised infrastructure
• Fairness of the distribution of risks & benefits between the stakeholders

Leo advocates for flexibility mechanisms rather than capacity mechanisms and support full traceability via 24/7 green certificates.
Finally, when you add the electrification of transport, the key word is Flexibility, as the electrification can either be fast or global, but cannot be both at the same time. Compromises will have to be made.
A great thanks to Kristian Ruby, Bruce Douglas and Emily O'Leary for making this moment possible.

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This podcast is powered by Axpo an international leader in providing sustainable energy solutions for the future. In the Nordics, Axpo has been a pioneer within Trading and Origination services for the last 20 years.

Steel is essential for the equipment of the Energy Transition (Wind, EVs) but at the same time bears a very significant carbon footprint: 1.8tCO2/t steel. Pushed and/or incentivised by policies in the US and EU, the Steel industry must innovate to reduce its CO2 emissions which today represent 7%-8% of the world’s carbon dioxide.
ArcelorMittal (the world biggest steel company outside China) is in the thick of it. It is not just writing reports but investing through its own VC fund called XCarb Innovation Fund. Through XCarb ArcelorMittal invests tens of millions of dollars in three major routes: Clean Electrification, new DRI (Direct Reduction of Iron), and Smart Carbon.
So, we are going to talk about all future technologies that will help decarbonise the Steel sector: Advanced Nuclear, Long Duration Storage, Hydrogen, Carbon Capture Utilisation as well as a lot of other innovations in the making. Our guest is the very talented Irina Gorbounova, VP M&A at ArcelorMittal, and head of the XCarb fund. It is key to have an investor with a dual background, both VC and industrial, at the time of VC funding in down 75% yoy.
Can we decarbonise Steel, with what technology? At what costs? On which horizons? Irina tackles with scientific precision all those questions. The word “hard to abate” might soon be a thing of the past for the Steel Industry. Maybe, we will just have to say: “takes time and resources to abate… but we’ve got this”.


-------- Erratum
When we discussed Form Energy, we meant to say storage of 100 hours plus which is 10 times cheaper than lithium based one.
Thank you for your understanding.

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Thanks to our partner for the Episode: Pexapark

And get our new media pack by emailing at [email protected]

What a pleasure, what an honor to have the original Energy Gang on our show to celebrate our 100th Episode.
The wit of Katherine Hamilton and the laugh of Jigar Shah were our inspiration 5 years ago when we got drunk at the Red Lion pub near Piccadilly to launch our show. The “ambitious” business plan was to create a tiny European copycat of the Gang. 900k downloads later, this is where we are.
Katherine Hamilton is Chair at 38 North Solutions, a public policy firm focused on clean energy and innovation, and one the main artisan of the Inflation Reduction Act; Jigar Shah is Director at the Loan Program Office at the US Department of Energy, managing hundreds of billions USD to finance the Energy Transition.
The topic of this special show is the following: Let’s assume we are in 2030, Elon Musk is on Mars, did the energy transition work? Our conversation encompasses the decarbonisation of the grid, the future of Nuclear and Geothermal, the electrification of transport, Hydrogen, and many other topics.
In the end, we deliver a positive message: “We are succeeding the Energy Transition thanks to the thrust and imagination of the new generation.”

The electricity network is the bloodline of the economy. It is a very complex system, built over decades, with layers of technologies and it has to be reliable 24/7. We hardly talked about this network of wires and cables a few years back but now, in the context of the energy transition, it plays a critical role in solving the three main challenges: the three D’s – decarbonisation, decentralisation and digitisation.
Operating the grid 365/24/7 is not a simple task, as the primary objective of any electricity network is reliability; any structural change is like trying to change the engines of the plane while it is flying.
How can the network evolve to answer the challenges of the energy transition? How fast does it evolves? How can new transmissions be developed? How are the issues identified and what does the future looks like? How do network managers around the world collaborate and share best practises?

To answer those questions, we’ve had a fascinating conversation with Fintan Slye, Executive Director of National Grid ESO, the Electricity System Operator for Great Britain’s national electricity network. Fintan has been Executive Director of UK National Grid ESO since 2018. Prior to this he was CEO of the EirGrid Group, the electricity system and market operator in Ireland and Northern Ireland. He has previously worked for McKinsey & Company and ESB Group.

This is Episode 99 and we promise you a big surprise for our Episode 100. Don’t forget our sister shows: the weekly fast Redefining Energy Minutes and the deep-dive Redefining Energy Tech with Michael Barnard.
Once again, we thank Aquila Capital for their continuous support.

How to optimise a fleet of hundreds of solar parks? And the work needs to start once the asset has been energised...and continue for decades. Plus, as with an iceberg, most of the work is below the surface.
How to manage this complexity, what lessons can be learned from one territory to another? How are the teams trained? What is the impact of digital to optimise the economic performance?
We have the pleasure of welcoming Adele Ara, Head of Global Business Operations at Lightsource bp, where she has worked for nine years.
Lightsource bp is a global leader in utility-scale solar development and management. A 50:50 JV between the Energy Giant BP and the founding team, Lightsource bp is the largest solar developer in Europe and the third largest in the world outside of China. They operate more than 300 installations (from 5GW to 500GW) in 19 countries, a portfolio of 8.8GW of solar today with the aim of reaching 25GW in 2025.
Adele shares with us her vision of excellence, and… there is definitely a secret sauce.
Hint (in that famous quote from Peter Drucker): “Culture eats strategy for breakfast”

Our partner for the episode
FEBESOL is one of the fastest growing solar companies in Germany. FEBESOL delivers residential PV systems with outstanding quality, and also installs batteries, EV chargers and heat pumps.

The Power Markets have been created thirty years ago to respond to the Energy Deregulation drive. They have recently faced crisis, such as the Ukraine Russia war or storm Yuri in Texas, with power prices going crazy and creating a lot of financial distresses for certain producers and consumers.
Meanwhile, we see the development of renewables that increase the volatility and remove the traditional reference to marginal pricing linked to fossil fuels. How to characterise the problems?
Do power markets need a reform or a revolution? How can flexibility be bolstered? Can a fossil-fuel free system still deliver a marginal price? Are governments too heavy handed?
All those questions are put together and debated with our guest Stephen Woodhouse, Director, AFRY Management Consulting. Stephen has 25 years’ experience in the electricity business and has headed AFRY’s global work on energy market design for many years and is internationally recognised as an expert in energy market reform and the energy transition. AFRY Management Consulting is a leading advisor for the transitions of the energy, bioindustry, infrastructure, industrial and future mobility sectors.
Conclusion: let’s only touch the power markets with “fear and trembling”

We thank our partners from Aquila Capital for supporting out show

The Energy Storage Market, namely large-scale batteries, is the fastest growing segment of the Energy transition. Texas, UK, California, and Australia are witnessing phenomenal deployment rates. We are talking about annual growth of 30%-40%.
As more and more infrastructure investors are either considering investing in Batteries, or have already started, we wanted to make a deep dive on how to monetise that new asset class. Because revenues from batteries quite differ from wind and solar. It’s all about flexibility and optionality with a strong layer of digital.
To get a better understanding of this new landscape, we have brought our friend Quentin Draper-Scrimshire to the show. Quentin is a very talented young entrepreneur, fellow podcaster, and the CEO of Modo Energy, the leading data analytics firm focussed on the commercialisation of battery energy storage. Modo Energy's customers include funds, asset owners, utilities, traders, and optimisers in Great Britain. Who will win in the race for maximum returns? Data scientists turned traders or traders turned data scientists.
A wonderful look into the future, which is happening now, pedal to the metal!
https://modo.energy/

And we thank Aquila Capital for their continuous support.

Can we really go to Net Zero and keep energy secure and affordable with current policies, or do we need to make hard choices that politicians might not be willing to sustain over the long term? Are the new technologies going to save us or will have to rely on dirigiste policies to dampen the energy prices spikes and secure affordable power.
What will it take to go net Zero? Are we too dependent on weather and unreliable energy sources? Two visions are clashing: it is Elon Musk’s Master Plan 3 vs Bill Gates/Vaclav Smil “We don’t have the tech” or it is just a question of generation: 51 years old vs 67 and 79 years old?
We present a very tough but necessary debate with Doug Houseman, Principal Consultant at 1898 Burns McDonnell (a US Engineering giant), and a keen observer of the Energy Transition. Doug has a plan, and he also comments on the alternative which would be Greta’s plan (That’s where we start to differ). But as Mike Tyson used to say, “Everybody has a plan until he gets punched in the face”.

Are our choices that binary? Doug advocates a nuclear renaissance, massive seawater pumped hydro systems and new transmissions. No mention of decentralized power, exponential deployment of batteries and solar, nor digital.

In a simple summary: are we complexifying a simple model or are we simplifying a complex model? Blue Pill or Red Pill?

3 million heat pumps were installed in Europe in 2022 (up 38% year on year) with some markets going crazy (Poland went up 120%). The movement is not limited to Europe, as US annual sales rose above 4 million units for the first time in 2022 (more than gas boilers).
As the deployment of heat pumps has reached an inflection point in 2022, we wanted to dig deep into the decarbonisation of heating. We wanted to talk about new technologies, economics and government interventions which are sometimes good (ban of new oil and gas boilers, subsidies) sometimes bad (electrons are more taxed than molecules).
This silent revolution needed a voice, and that’s our friend Jan Rosenow. Jan is the European Director of the Regulatory Assistance Project, a global energy think tank working on clean energy. He is also an Honorary Fellow at Oxford University. Jan Rosenow is a global heat pump expert and has tracked heat pump markets around the world. He works with policy makers all over Europe to craft and implement more effective policies to drive the transition.
And of course, we talk about Hydrogen (spoiler alert, not in great terms)
References https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H3jIRRzF6d0
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-022-01104-8
https://www.raponline.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/RAP_Heat_Pump_Toolkit.pdf


CarbonBrief:
https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-how-the-energy-crisis-is-boosting-heat-pumps-in-europe/

debunking myths
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/debunking-heat-pump-myths-dr-jan-rosenow?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios&utm_campaign=share_via

We thank our friends and partners Aquila Capital, for supporting the show

The supply chains in renewables are a total mess. Security of Supply, Price fluctuations, Technological changes, ESG… Acquiring equipment on time and on budget is becoming a harder challenge by the day. How to fix the supply chain for renewables?

We needed to bring a real professional on the show, and that’s Özer Ergül. Özer is Group Head of Procurement with Aquila Capital. Prior to joining Aquila Capital, he was Group CPO for Lightsource BP, and started his career at Toyota and then HitachiABB. Özer is also Chair of Supply Chain Sustainably workstream with Solar Power Europe. Last year, Özer supervised a CAPEX of 4bnEUR for a 3.3GW deployment of new renewable capacity in Europe and AsiaPac.

Özer delivers the four golden rules to fix the supply chains problems. More perspiration than inspiration. Very technical but eye opening.

We thank our partner for the episode, Conquest Group, a Paris/Dublin-based alternative asset management firm investing in and operating long-life, high-quality assets in tomorrow’s critical infrastructure for the energy transition on behalf of his clients

We discovered Simon Moores, CEO of Benchmark Minerals Intelligence, on YouTube, during a legendary testimony during the US Senate in 2019. Simon just blew our mind, so it had been an ambition for this show to bring him on. And we did.
With Simon, we analyse the whole supply chain of batteries, from mining (lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite) to refining, down to the Gigafactories.
The battery industry has managed to scale x10 in the past six years and is expected to x8-x10 (depending on who you listen to) in the current decade. That would allow the electrification of the whole transportation sector!
Is there enough raw materials in the ground, are we going to go from one dependency to another? Can lithium be replaced? How is the state of the Nickel market after the 2022 meltdown? Can we create supply chains outside China? What is the impact of the IRA in the US? Will automakers get more involved in mining (we just witnessed the spectacular investment of GM in Thacker Pass)? Is there a new battery technology that would dent the domination of the Li-Ion batteries?
All those questions are so much more in a very lively discussion with Simon.
(We refer to Joe Lowry, that we respect and salute)


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Benchmark Mineral Intelligence is an independent price reporting agency (PRA), data and supply chain intelligence provider for the lithium-ion battery and electric vehicle industry. We offer subscriptions and strategic advisory services to those in or looking to enter the active lithium-ion battery ecosystem.

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References:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wv0PHIo1zzo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OW45rCuhIg8&t=17s
https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/
https://events.benchmarkminerals.com/event/da3e1b1f-7c83-4a16-a34d-6b020d09070a/summary
And also, very useful report on the State of Play in the Battery Industry https://www.volta.foundation/annual-battery-report

And don’t forget our “Book of the Year 2022” “Volt Rush” on that topic.---------------
We thank Aquila Capital for supporting the show

Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) are private contracts between a producer of renewable energy and consumers. The PPA was developing consistently, mainly driven by Utilities. Then 2022 arrived and we witnessed an unprecedented volatility in PPA markets in Europe.
What were the consequences of that turmoil on the PPA markets in terms of prices, tenures, counterparties? Did PPA provide good hedges to sellers and buyers?
We have brought in Luca Pedretti, the COO & Co-Founder of Pexapark to dive into the intricacies of the PPA market. Pexapark is the leading analytic platform of PPAs.
How has the market evolved in recent months and where is it heading? What new thinking and innovative approaches in terms of risk management are bringing solutions and give rise to new opportunities? We also talk about the detrimental haphazard proposals of market reforms by regulators, their lack of trust in the private sector, and their itching attempts to over-regulate with top down one-size-fits-all decisions, soviet style.
But hope is around the corner, and the PPA market will evolve and thrive, but it will be a different market, more on a portfolio basis than on an asset basis, with different tenures and risk management systems.
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Pexapark is a 5-year young, rapidly growing company of 100 enthusiasts providing renewable energy management software and PPA transaction services to investors so that they can independently price, analyse, manage, and transact their production on power markets. Pexapark enabled so far +20 GW of PPAs and its software is run for 1’000s of assets.

Also, if you like more audio content on commodities and energy, check the HC Insider Podcast https://www.linkedin.com/company/hcgroup-global/

Finally, we thank our partner Aquila Capital, who make this show possible!

Everybody wants to buy 24/7 green electrons, but until recently, it has proven quite difficult. Most buyers of Green Energy are currently purchasing their electrons on a yearly basis, and furthermore with little regard for the location.
At the same time, last century thinking has gripped regulators with frantic proposals of price caps and tentative market reforms around nodal pricing. This flurry of activity has only added confusion in the mind of renewables developers, and hence has been stifling investment.
The real solution to a correct pricing of green electrons comes from several forward-thinking energy consumers such as Google and Microsoft who have now decided to target an hourly match of Green Electricity. In order to solve the issue of monitoring space and time, blockchain has come to the rescue under the form of an EnergyTag.
We have brought Simone Accornero, CEO FlexiDAO, a European Start Up in charge of tracking and monitoring those Green Electrons by the hour. FlexiDAO works closely with critical stakeholders to co-create the international standard around energy-related emission compliance.
Thanks to their end-to-end 24/7 Carbon-free Energy platform, companies can quantify and confidently showcase their contribution to society's decarbonization.
Tracking those Green Certificates will allow to price them properly, so renewable developers will know where and when it is valuable to add green electrons on the grid, boosting the incentives to invest in storage (time) and transmission (space).
The Energy timestamps are a genuine innovation in the development of the Energy Transition.

Please check EnergyTag, with our friend Toby Ferenczi. (https://energytag.org/)

Also, as promised, the link to the 8th Energy Storage Summit – London 22 - 23 February 2023 https://storagesummit.solarenergyevents.com/

And we thank Aquila Capital for their support!

MESSAGE FROM FLEXIDAO
“During this interview, Simone Accornero made the statement that international certificates from LATAM were being used on another continent and for the creation of renewable-generated steel. This statement is incorrect and was used to represent a possible future situation if market boundaries are not well defined, not a statement of fact.”

Happy new year 2023 to all our listeners. In this Episode, it is Nostradamus vs. Cassandra all over again: Laurent and Gerard review their 2022 predictions (Episode 65) and look forward to the future.

How accurate were our two co-hosts’ predictions for 2022?
1) The Energy Transition is not going to be a smooth ride
2) The Hydro and water crisis
3) The decade of geothermal
4) High Energy Prices
5) Elon Musk out of Tesla
6) Power Market Structure Reform.

Overall, it seems to be another draw. You’ll be the judge.

And here are our new Predictions for 2023
1) Record installation of everything Energy Transition: Solar, Batteries, Heat Pumps, EV
2) Massive consolidation in the EV sector – Toyota will buy Panasonic
3) Volatility in the Energy market is here to stay
4) New alternatives to Li-Ion in Stationary Storage
5) The Energy Transition has no plan, it just goes
6) Nuclear: Westinghouse takes over Europe

We thank our partner Aquila Capital for their continuous support and wish all our listeners a Happy New Year 2023.

Another year of explosive growth for the Solar Industry: production above 300GW, +45% yoy. What’s behind this staggering growth? How are the supply chain evolving? What are the “Fab four” and what new technology are they pursuing? Why are the prices not going down? How can the development of ESG in supply chain be assessed? How will the industry look in 5 years?

So many questions for this booming industry and it is just starting: Solar PV capacity is expected to almost treble over the 2022-2027 period, growing by 1.5TW and surpassing coal as the largest source of power capacity worldwide, according to a report from the International Energy Agency (IEA). In its “Renewables 2022” report, the IEA expects renewables to grow by 2.4TW over the next five-year period, with an acceleration of installations in the residential and commercial rooftop market globally to help reduce energy bills.

We needed answers; that’s why we brought Finlay Colville on the show. Finlay is Head of Research PV-Tech and Solar Media and the most widely admired expert around the world for his insights. (Especially now that we are wondering about the fate of our Queen of Solar, Jenny Chase, who gave up the Head of Solar at BNEF. Jenny told me she is still active. We send her our love and respect).

Finlay strongly believes that the Solar industry will reach a 1TW capacity in this very decade, which is a total gamechanger than the incumbents are totally oblivious to.

Gerard and Laurent agree 100%. “The incumbent energy industry has literally no idea what’s coming for them”

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Find more of Finlay Colville analysis here
https://www.pv-tech.org/
https://www.solarmedia.co.uk/

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A warm salute to our friends of Solar Power Europe.
https://www.solarpowereurope.org/

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We thank the Green Recruitment Company for supporting the show. The Green Recruitment Company is the leading renewable energy and sustainability staffing company in the world.
With recruiters in Europe, America, China, Australia & Africa, The Green Recruitment Company offers bespoke staffing solutions across solar, wind, green hydrogen, carbon capture, storage, investment & finance, and much more.
https://www.greenrecruitmentcompany.com/

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Don't forget our excellent weekly sister show: Redefining Energy MINUTES
Applepodcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/redefining-energy-minutes/id1605111087
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0mx29RlfrabGS6QErA8UD8


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Merry Christmas to all our listeners. See you on the 2nd January 2023 for our traditional previsions. (Gerard thinks he has won)

The biogas/biomethane industry is now one of the promising segments of the Energy Transition: security of supply, renewables sources, local jobs, round the clock dispatchability; the industry ticks all boxes.

Biogas can basically be made from any organic material, so the three big sectors are: 1) agricultural wastes (manures and slurries, crop residues) 2) food waste (from the processed food industry or food manufacturing, but also from supermarkets and households) 3) waste water. Biogas only contains 50%-60% methane; it can be upgraded to produce “biomethane” by removing the CO2 and other impurities.

Recent massive deals have made the headlines (BP acquisition of Archaea, Shell of Nature Energy, Macquarie of BayWa biogas, Nextera of Energy Power Partners) and more big players are committing capital to this industry: (TotalEnergies, Marubeni). Overall, the industry could x10 this decade.

To discuss the future of biogas/biomethane, we bring on Chris Huhne, UK Energy and Climate Change Secretary from 2010 to 2012, one of the founding fathers of CFDs in the Renewable Energy Industry and currently Chair of ADBA (Anaerobic Digestion and Bioresources Association).

We review the challenge of technological standardisation, government incentives, and feedstock supply chains.

Will biogas solve the energy transition on its own? Certainly not. Will it be an important part of the solution? Definitely.

We thank our long-time partners Aquila Capital

Geopolitics and Climate disasters have shown how fragile Energy flows and infrastructures have become. Moving electrons or molecules is becoming an ever-greater challenge in the drive to decarbonisation, affordability, and security of supply.

Politics are always in the background, and the recent US Midterms elections have signaled the end of a full Democrat Congress which has been very active in financing infrastructures and the energy transition.

To discuss Energy infrastructure in the context of divisive national politics and tense geopolitics, we have invited one of the savviest US Energy regulators of recent years: Neil Chatterjee. Neil is an American lawyer, political advisor, and government official who was Chairman of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) from 2017 until he was removed from the position by President Donald Trump in November 2020 for his “pro-climate” positions.

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission is the United States federal agency that regulates the transmission and wholesale sale of electricity and natural gas in interstate commerce and regulates the transportation of oil by pipeline in interstate commerce. FERC also reviews proposals to build interstate natural gas pipelines, natural gas storage projects, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals, in addition to licensing non-federal hydropower projects.

At FERC, Neil approved several key infrastructures such as Liquified Natural Gas Export terminals, and passed the landmark Order 2222, unlocking the development of Distributed Energy Resources (mini grids, VPP, batteries).

With Neil, we discuss the US investments prospects in the wake of the US Midterms, the Inflation Reduction Act, the conundrum of Permitting and more generally how Energy flows are constantly being restructured.

We thank our new sponsor, The Green Recruitment Company, the leading renewable energy and sustainability staffing company in the world.

The war in Ukraine has triggered a dislocation of Energy markets, especially in Europe. This has led to a point a few months ago when governments had to bail out all Utilities which were caught on the wrong side of Energy Trades. Trillions of derivatives threatened to trigger a “Lehman moment”.

How did we get there? Are the Energy markets the culprits or just the symptoms? Are they beyond repairs or can they be reformed? Do they even need to be reformed? As Regulators are coming up with new ideas every week, we bring on the show the legendary Energy Trader Pierre Andurand.

From Goldman Sachs whizz kid to now managing one of the best performing Energy funds on the planet, Pierre Andurand is one of the most successful Energy Trader since the retirement of John Arnold in 2012. Pierre shares with us a clear vision backed by stellar financial returns (consistently above 50% per annum the past 3 years, and above 30% over his 20-year career).

Pierre delivers a masterclass in Energy switching (Oil, Gas, Renewables, Nuclear), talk about elasticity of demand and the impacts of volatility on the transition; for Gerard and Laurent, it is equivalent of having a private tennis lesson with Roger Federer.

Did we have Lehman moments? definitely. Is the worse behind us? quite likely. And how do we see the future? Pretty rosy.

We thank Aquila Capital for their support

Offshore Wind was one of the great development successes of the past decade, growing in 10 years from a few pilot projects to a real industry. Two zones have been at the fore front: the North Sea (with 30GW as of 2021) and China (with +20GW). Better tech, burgeoning supply chain and infrastructure, and a dramatic fall in cost have created tailwinds for this industry.

Offshore Wind is now a technology considered all around the world. However, there is a little problem: the fixed bottom Offshore Industry has benefited from a unique feature of the North Sea, i.e. shallow waters (less than 70m). And if you find great wind resources offshore in a lot of places, the seabed is generally much deeper, in fact too deep for fixed bottom.

Hence, some of the North Sea pioneers have been trying to crack the code of floating offshore wind. A milestone was hit when, in March 2022, Scotland awarded 15GW of seabed for floating. No more experimentation, the race is on.

To talk about this new technology, its promises as well as its challenges, we have invited Stephen Bull, EVP Renewables at Aker Solutions, the Norwegian Engineering giant. Within its offshore wind division, Aker has developed a specific competence relating to foundations, transmission, marine operations, dynamic cable, mooring systems, and subsea power solutions.

Stephen Bull is also Chair of Renewable UK and one the founding father of the offshore wind industry in the UK when he was at Equinor leading the development of Dogger Bank, the largest offshore wind park in the world.

With plans to multiply offshore wind by a factor 10 in the coming decades, and floating being a key technology, Gerard and Laurent are having a great conversation on how to unlock the floating potential, and also discover how “concrete is the unsung hero of floating OSW”.

This episode is produced in partnership with WindEurope
https://windeurope.org/


We thank our partner Aquila Capital
https://www.aquila-capital.de/en/

Decarbonising the shipping industry seemed very aspirational until recently. Lofty goals are out there: “The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has set an ambition to reduce the carbon intensity of emissions from shipping by at least 40% by 2030, and 70% by 2050, compared with 2008 levels. To achieve this, the shipping industry needs to unite in taking urgent action.”

While a lot of talks are centered around hydrogen or ammonia, it is once again the batteries that are making the difference. Namely, advances in batteries and the genuine advantages of electric propulsion vs fuel propulsion are now creating a perfect technical and economic launchpad for a massive decarbonisation of shipping.

Of course, we will start with short distance trips, like for ferries, tugboats, fishing, but the technology has developed so fast in recent years that the possibilities seem much wider. UC Berkeley models that – by the end of the decade – 40% of routes could be electrified without subsidies, not even taking into accounts environmental benefits.
To discuss the electrification of shipping, we have invited Geir Bjørkeli, CEO Corvus Energy to have a conversation about the technical options around the electrification of shipping. Corvus Energy is the leading provider of zero-emission solutions for the ocean space. Corvus Energy’s full product portfolio covers batteries for all types of vessels: Lightweight batteries for tourist and fast passenger crafts, large battery systems for cruise and ro-pax and batteries with high cycling capability for ferries and offshore. Corvus Energy has unsurpassed experience from 600 projects, totaling over 500 MWh and more than 4 million operating hours.
Gerard and Laurent’s big surprise is that we are not talking about massive government subsidies, the economics of expensive fuel and maintenance costs are doing the heavy lifting. Great story!

We thank our partner AQUILA CAPITAL

Reference: UC Berkeley study
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-022-01065-y

In the past two years, we’ve seen a remarkable renaissance of the carbon markets.
Some markets are of a “compliance” type - like in Europe - heavily regulated but limited in geography and scope; but there is limited prospect for an overall Cap & Trade worldwide as carbon markets were ignored in the US IRA - the largest Climate bill ever.
So, what happens when a sector or a company is not covered by those compliance markets but still have pledged a net-zero or carbon-neutrality (whatever that means)? Well, that’s where the “voluntary market” steps in.
Re-born on the ashes of the Kyoto Protocol, projects such as forestry, carbon avoidance and removal are developed and get rewarded for their environmental benefits. That’s not THE solution to climate change, but that could be one of several.
The current voluntary market has quadrupled its size in the last 3 years to 2bnUSD and is expected to reach 50bnUSD by the end of the decade. Still small, compared to a 10bnUSD/day on the oil market… but we need all the help available on our road to a +1.5C world.
Unfortunately, we have immediately witnessed a lot of gaming and greenwashing around the issue of carbon credits. Only horror stories make it to the media, not the great projects (and there are a lot); the former must be banned, the latter promoted and rewarded.
Around Mark Carney, former governor of the central banks of Canada and England, a group of scientists, NGOs, Industries have coalesced into the Integrity Council for Voluntary Carbon Market to create a quality benchmark, and make sure that the carbon credits proposed to corporations on their way to net-zero are sound.
We bring Annette Nazareth, chair of the Integrity Council to discuss about the goal, talk about horror stories and how the ICVCM, in full openness, is establishing rules for a robust market.
(we’re sorry if sometimes the sound quality is not perfect)
-------------------
References:
https://icvcm.org/public-consultation/
https://vcmintegrity.org/
https://trove-research.com/
Alessandro Vitelli
Mark Lewis
https://www.ieta.org/
https://verra.org/
---------------------

We thank Aquila Capital for their continuous support

Talking about nuclear is tough. In the left corner, a besieged and opaque industry only delivering carefully crafted talking points; and in the right corner, most of the energy economists and financiers that are ignoring promises never met. One can’t escape the feeling that the nuclear industry operates in a parallel universe where models don’t match reality, where actual numbers don’t match forecasts; a world where nuclear generation is flat over the past 10 years while renewables have quadrupled.
Nevertheless, when the current nuclear fleet is either forcefully closed (like in Germany) or becomes unreliable (like in France or Japan) or uneconomic (like in the USA), we see emissions going up, the restart of old coal plants, and a reduction of energy security at enormous cost (If EDF was producing as much as 12 years ago, Europe would yearly get 150TWh of carbon free power, equivalent to 250TWh of natural gas, or more than 50bnEUR ANNUALLY at current price level).
Despite all the flaws of the nuclear industry, the opinion seems to be shifting in its favour; not because of “net zero”, but because of security of supply and crazy fossil fuel prices. The best example of this is the recent U-turn of Japan and South Korea towards Nuclear.

The nuclear industry is at the crossroads between oblivion and reboot.
We wanted to go beyond that “There is no alternative” message and dig deep into the industry’s challenges, pipe dreams but also real and exciting prospects, such as SMR (Small Modular Reactors) and other innovations. We also wanted to talk geopolitics and the role of Russia in the supply chain.
And there is no better guest than Boris Schucht, CEO of Urenco, to have an open debate on the pod. The Urenco Group is a British-German-Dutch nuclear fuel consortium operating several uranium enrichment-plants in Germany, the Netherlands, United States, and United Kingdom. It supplies nuclear power stations in about 15 countries, and has a 29% share of the global market for enrichment services in 2011
Albert Einstein said that the definition of stupidity is doing the same mistakes all over again while expecting a different outcome. We all would wish that nuclear plays a bigger role, from a climate and security of supply perspectives, but the industry needs to put its act together and deliver results rather than false promises.

Link to Michael Barnard's piece on SMR
https://illuminem.com/energyvoices/c1f245f8-d201-498e-9e85-8592095ae2ac

We thank our partner Aquila Capital for their support

This episode is done in partnership with SolarPower Europe.

There is a lot of media around Utility solar, but the real solar revolution is happening one rooftop at the time. In China, the EU and Australia, Rooftop and C&I account for more than 60% of all solar installations (In the US, it’s only 30%). No need to restructure the Distribution network: it’s energy at the point of need.

So, we wanted to do an episode on Rooftop solar, because on one hand, very intelligent people in think-tanks and governments write reports after white papers about decarbonisation, on the other hand, entrepreneurs and industrialists are every day executing the energy transition by installing on-site solar power.

These are the foot soldiers of the energy transition, and they deserve their place in the sun (so to speak).

Hence, we have invited Thomas Kercher the CEO of Febesol, a fast-growing German rooftop solar installer to discuss the nitty-gritty of residential solar.
What are the motivations of his clients? How are the technologies evolving? What does the software look like? How easy it is to get permitting? and most important, what is the Human Resources aspect?
We also discuss the integration of solar into smart home, EV Charger, Batteries, Heat pumps as citizens are looking for lower costs, autonomy, and a new meaning of freedom from bureaucratic and unreliable global systems.

We salute OTOVO, great platform, for providing excellent data.

Great thanks to our partner DLA Piper.

The energy transition is coming; it is not a top-down, it’s a bottom-up.

Energy Efficiency is not sexy, it’s under the radar, hard to invest in. We are talking about small unit amounts, with aggregation problems, credit problems, standardisation problems.
But the whole sector is undertaking a quiet revolution: with the price explosion of retail energy, efficiency is now on everyone’s desk.
In the US, Sunrun has managed to securitise portfolios of rooftop solar using techniques of the mortgage industry. The same techniques are now arriving in Europe, even if it’s more complex because Europe doesn’t have the equivalent of the American FICO score which was introduced 35 years ago and has proven so seminal in the growth of personal lending.
Nevertheless, pioneer utility and distributors like Octopus in the UK or Thermondo in Germany are integrating supply chains and providing financing for a seamless service.
We have the pleasure to receive Alex Betts, fund manager Energy Efficiency at Aquila Capital. We like Aquila because they have a robust methodical approach of EE. We discuss the challenges but also the prospects of EE investment.

We thank our partner DLA Piper for supporting our show

The future of storage is so bright that investing in in the vertical and its adjacencies is the opportunity of a lifetime. At the same time, buyer beware - there are many Theranos-like investment opportunities lurking out there in our vertical. You've got to be very smart to minimize the losers in your portfolio…or, as the great Michael Lewis would say, adopt a “Moneyball” approach.

Where are the successes and where are the pitfalls? You need to be a great financier but also a fantastic scientist to figure out which will be the winning opportunities in the maze of projects floating around.

That’s why we have invited Jeff Chamberlain, CEO of Volta Energy Technologies (a 400mUSD Venture Capital fund) to discuss all the new innovations out there, including solid-state batteries. Jeff Chamberlain launched Volta Energy Technologies (https://volta.vc/ ) from Argonne National Laboratory in 2016. Volta’s investment scope includes batteries, storage, and all the associated technology required to reduce cost and integrate batteries into vehicles and the grid across a spectrum of innovation that includes materials production, batteries, fast-charge tech, power electronics, management software, and recycling. Jeff and his team leverage all their knowledge and experience not only in batteries but also more generally in technology commercialization, physics, engineering, and investing to source, diligence, underwrite, and manage their investments.

We talk about the difficulties of scaling and the need to integrate innovations into the current industrial infrastructure and supply chains, not try to compete against them. The debate doesn’t not avoid “controversial” companies such as Quantum Scape and Energy Vault.

In conclusion, Batterytech is a fantastic field of investing, but there are Zombies out there, not only in VCs but also in public markets under the form of SPACs.
There will be blood.

A great thanks to our partner Aquila Capital

Subsea interconnectors are a very discreet sector, it entails decade-long developments…but are developing fast and have become critical to increasing renewables penetration and enhancing energy security. They were originally developed around the North Sea and the Baltic Sea by TSO (Transmission System Operators) but have now caught the interest of large private infrastructure investors. Those HVDC cables, running for hundreds of kms under the seabed, can carry (in both ways) power equivalent to a nuclear plant.

How are those projects being developed? What are their revenue models? What are the technical options? What does the future look like as pharaonic projects liking continents are now being considered? Gerard and Laurent provide an in-depth view into the beauty and sophistication of those projects with the “captain Nemo” of interconnectors, Simon Ludlam.

Simon, a former investment banker, is the founding partner of Etchea Energy which currently provides the Management Team to the Irish MaresConnect interconnector project. Etchea Energy previously provided Project Director services to the €500m Greenlink Interconnector where it was successful in introducing Cap & Floor regulation in Ireland, securing PCI status for the project, and raising equity finance for the construction phase. Prior to Greenlink, Simon originated and led the development of the €600m ElecLink interconnector project through the Channel Tunnel.

We thank our friend and partner Aquila Capital for supporting the show

After the fiasco of “Better place” in 2013, a much-hyped Israeli start up that proposed battery swapping for cars, everybody thought that the concept of battery swapping was dead. Against all odds, an exceptional Hong Kong Chinese American entrepreneur decided to be a contrarian and launched Gogoro as Better Place collapsed. But Horace Luke’s angle was to focus on two-wheelers, which are so present in Asia (500 million). Horace’s past experiences at Microsoft and HTC helped him shaped his vision. Battery Swapping was in his mind, the ideal solution for mass adoption of electric Two-Wheelers in densely populated, polluted and congested Asian Megacities.
Execution has been performed the “hard way”, as the initial digital platform has morphed into a hardware company, designing batteries, manufacturing electric scooters, and operating swapping stations.
Fast forward ten years, Gogoro has built the world’s leading battery swapping network and best-in-class electric two-wheelers, and is now listed on the NASDAQ with a market cap above 1bnUSD.
We have the pleasure of welcoming Horace Luke to discuss the challenges and opportunities of battery swapping for two-wheelers. And learn the benefits of the “hard way”.

We thank our partner DLA Piper

Elon Musk calls Lithium supply the “limiting factor” for electric vehicle adoption globally. Lithium is the key material for the Energy Transition and is currently enjoying a “white gold” rush.

The supply has significantly gone up multiple fold in the past seven years, up to 500,000t/y in 2022; still, demand is expected – according to Benchmark Minerals Intelligence – to grow another four to five-fold this decade.

The shortage of Lithium – whether real or perceived -, has triggered a spectacular rise in the price of materials over the past two years. Spot prices of Lithium have gone up six-fold since 2020. And Lithium is not alone: Nickel, Cobalt, Graphite, every battery material has gone up. Basically, in 2020 you had 2,000USD of material in a Tesla battery, now it is closer to 6,000USD.
Are we going to run out of Lithium? Are they new places to mine, new players, new technologies which could come to the rescue?
We have invited Alex Grant, Principal at Jade Cove Partners, to assess all those challenges.
We call Alex the “Indiana Jones of Lithium and Battery materials”. Forbes 30 under 30, research affiliate at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Alex has an M.S. from Northwestern University in Chemical Engineering and tracks 70 different Lithium Extraction Technologies. Finally, he has a cool Twitter handle: @big_lithium. So, he is the man to interview!
We also have inserted an excerpt from Elon Musk conversation in the FT “Future of cars” that was held in May 2022 where Tesla’s CEO shares his views on the Lithium supply chain.

A salute to our main sources of knowledge in Lithium: Simon Moores at Benchmark Minerals Intelligence, and of course Joe Lowry aka “Mr Lithium”. Check them on LinkedIn

And thanks again and again to our partner Aquila Capital

There is not a single day when we don’t hear about new funds being raised to finance the Energy Transition. As very few funds are listed on Exchanges, and it is estimated that more than 2/3 of the Energy Transition is currently financed on private markets, for which there is limited public available information.

Today, we attempt to lift the veil on those VC (Venture Capital), PE (Private Equity), Infrastructure funds which all working to finance the Energy Transition. Who invest in those funds, how they are managed, how do they evolve, what is the “special relationship” between GPs (General Partners) and LPs (Limited Partners)? What will be the performance of the new “Climate tech” and “Decarbonisation” funds that have recently been launched.

We also try to decrypt an increasingly complex regulatory environment where green labels are getting harder to get. Are new regulations a solution to greenwashing or just more bureaucracy?

So, what the new profile of Energy Transition funds?
We have invited Tiffany Howard, Principal at Capstone Partners (a Mizuho Company) to discuss the state of play. Capstone is one of the most active placing agents of the industry. Tiffany discusses with Gerard and Laurent the latest evolutions of the private markets financing the Energy Transition.

We thank our partner DLA Piper for supporting the show

Over the past few months, energy prices have gone through the roof, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has put energy security on the front burner. We can legitimately ask ourselves: Are high energy prices and the need for energy security tanking or boosting the Energy transition?

Of course, we now are seeing the fossil fuels lobbyists making victory laps, telling “we told you so”, “forget about net-zero” “This is La-la land”, “That’s the consequence of ESG”. In our opinion, that is just grand standing.

To try to understand where the Energy Transition is heading, we have invited one the wisest observer of the Energy Landscape, Jules Kortenhorst. Jules, after a distinguished career in the Energy Industry, is now CEO of RMI (formerly Rocky Mountain Institute). RMI is a 40-year-old independent nonprofit organization of experts working across disciplines to accelerate the clean energy transition to secure a clean, prosperous, zero-carbon future for all.
With Jules, Gerard and Laurent assess the near term and long-term impacts of the current energy markets turmoil. They confront their visions of how policies, technologies, investments, and individual behaviors will influence the future of the Energy Transition.

We thank Aquila Capital for their support

Contact RMI
@JulesKortenhors
@RockyMtnInst
https://www.linkedin.com/company/rocky-mountain-institute/
https://rmi.org/

There is also an excellent report by Alexa Capital on the same subject here
https://www.alexa-capital.com/news-insights/how-europe-s-pearl-harbour-moment-is-affecting-the-transatlantic-energy-transition-outlook/

How to survive a war when you are a Utility in Ukraine?

Thanks to Eurelectric which organised the introduction, we have the honour of welcoming a hero of the Energy world: Maxim Timchenko, CEO of DTEK, one of the top integrated Utility in Ukraine.
During an intense conversation we talk about war, destruction, and sufferings, but also about resistance and resilience. Maxim praises its workforce as it tries to reestablish power and heat in liberated towns.
Beyond the horror and the drama, there is hope for the post war situation, the optimism of a stronger European integration that will help our continent wean itself of Russian dependence while creating opportunities for Ukraine’s resources.

We thank again Maxim for making the time. Slava Ukraini

Maxim will join European Power Summit in June
https://powersummit2022.eurelectric.org/

Thanks to our forever friends and partner Aquila Capital

Decarbonising Heat is a significant challenge on the road to Net-Zero, Climate Resilience and Energy Security. It is also a very complex problem as there are several categories of heat that require different technical solutions. While Heat Pumps can (and will) provide low grade heat, the options for high grade heat are evading electrification and will continue to rely on burning molecules.

Several start-ups on the US West Coast are tackling the challenge, with the support of powerful Venture Capital funds such as Bill Gates’ Breakthrough Energy Ventures.

To understand how those groundbreaking applications looks, we have invited a young prodigy on the show. Tony Pan, CEO and Co-founder of Modern Electron, explains his approach to Ultra Energy-Efficiency in Heat. Once scaled, Modern Electron’s innovations will significantly enhance the climate performances of heating.

We thank our partner DLA Piper for its support

The deployment of Li-Ion batteries has exploded in recent years and is expected to enjoy a 30% annual growth until 2030. But those very critical pieces of hardware need a brain to fully function, and that is where software kicks in. In fact, they are two layers of software: the operating system, monitoring the functioning of the battery and the cloud system that interacts with the global electricity system and the power markets. Managing batteries revenues widely differs from geography to geography. Revenues can be categorised in three captions: a) short term ancillary service: daily auctions for primary, secondary, and tertiary reserve b) wholesale electricity market: day-ahead, intraday and imbalance markets; c) long-term auctions such as capacity schemes, voltage control, and last reserve.
The battery management software must adapt to those different revenue stacks. So, how are the software developed, managed? How do they evolve?
We have the pleasure of welcoming Seyed Madaeni, Chief Digital Officer at Fluence, to discuss those fascinating subjects.
Finally, we do a deep dive into the economics of Fluence and have a go at the newly listed (and supposedly competitor) Energy Vault.
We thank Aquila Capital for supporting the show.

If you want more from Gerard and Laurent, check our sister podcast: Redefining Energy MINUTES, available on all main podcasts platforms.

The war in Ukraine is a total gamechanger. Beyond the personal drama and misery inflicted on millions of human beings, it triggers a tremor in the world of Energy of a magnitude not seen since the Oil shocks of the 70’s.
As Energy Security becomes front and center, Gerard and Laurent try to understand the short-term implications on the Energy landscape.
Are we moving away from the energy transition or are we going to align energy security with the energy transition?
Politicians have a chance to rise and make radical decisions. We have the human and financial capital; we have the technologies. We can implement a deep decarbonization than will also benefit Energy Security.

It is about Rewiring Europe, electrifying heating and transports, building networks faster, full digitization, higher level of resilience. Rewiring Europe will require significant changes in mindset, thinking, regulation, and in investments. Rewiring Europe will bring bold ideas to fruition and require bravery in implementation. But let’s be clear, Rewiring Europe must be done in an economic environment where financial institutions want to invest, as the sole burden of the transition cannot be borne solely by the ratepayers or the taxpayers.
If we wean ourselves off oil and gas, we will be free!
-------------
Proposals:
Short term
1. Reduce demand for natural gas – Practically, Germany and Belgium may both have to delay closures of nuclear plants and the same may need to happen for coal plants across the continent.
2. Move any energy purchases away from Russia – Practically, we may need to rethink the closure of North Sea and NL gas wells but also be prepared to import energy at higher prices from other parts of the world.
3. Fill up storage tanks – Europe needs to buy as much as it can in terms of uranium and fossil fuels to ensure we have enough energy to keep the lights on and our economies working.
4. Help energy sensitive customers – Practically, governments will need to help people and companies through these difficult times.

Medium term
1. Deeply electrify the energy system – The quickest way to decarbonise is to electrify as much as possible of the energy system. To that we need radical regulatory change to ensure a speedy and low cost transition. This starts with improving planning laws to allow quick build out of renewables and the necessary grid infrastructure.
2. Enable low cost electricity – In many European countries, electricity is the most expensive way to power your car and heat your home. The recent surges in natural gas prices have now indirectly made electricity even more expensive. There is a whole pile of measures than can be put in place, such as a) grid regulatory reforms which force competition and b) cost efficiency improvements to wholesale power market reforms which move away from the marginal cost pricing. In addition, taxes and other charges should be removed to ensure that electricity becomes the cheapest form of energy.
3. Invest in clean energy and storage – self explanatory
4. Embrace energy efficiency – self explanatory
5. Cut demand for fossil fuels – Heat pumps and EVs. In addition, it may well be that Europe needs to bring in a border carbon adjustment tax to ensure that European jobs and emissions are simply exported to another part of the world.
6. Change how Europe does innovation – stop sprinkling funds around to please lobbyists and PR firms, focus research funding on zero-carbon and storage
7. Bring together national security, decarbonization and industrial interests - self explanatory

As Winston Churchill was working on the establishment of the United Nations after WW2, he famously said "Never let a good crisis go to waste." Let’s focus on Rewiring Europe.
Check Gerard’s blog on the Rewiring Europe
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-we-need-rewire-europe-learn-from-past-energy-policy-gerard-reid/?trackingId=bYeoeBKtMTQf0jPS65bLAA%3D%3D

As we are celebrating the 20th anniversary of the seminal book by Jeremy Rifkin “The Hydrogen Economy” and the astronomical amount of non-sense it contained, we wanted to have a real look at the prospect of Green Hydrogen.
Beyond bombastic claims such as “History will look back at 2022 as the year that hydrogen started to reshape the world”, we have decided to dig deep into the technology and prospect of Electrolysers.
And there is no better guest to talk about electrolysers than Graham Cooley, CEO of ITM Power. ITM Power is one of the largest electrolyser manufacturers in the world, and has deep pockets to pursue a very aggressive expansion. What is true now, and how does the horizon looks like for green hydrogen?
In other words, is Green Hydrogen a miracle or a mirage?

Anything you want to know about Hydrogen, go to our friend Paul Martin and his Hydrogen Science Coalition.
https://h2sciencecoalition.com/

Link to the Irena Report: Geopolitics of Green Hydrogen
https://www.irena.org/publications/2022/Jan/Geopolitics-of-the-Energy-Transformation-Hydrogen

A nice video of Electrolysers in action (Humberside Project – UK)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=97lA75HocBw

And we thank again our partner DLA PIPER

Gigafactory: a term first coined by Elon Musk in 2013 when announcing the Tesla+Panasonic giant battery plant in Nevada. There are currently more than 260 Gigafactories planned around the world, but lots of them remain “PowerPoint factories”. So, how do you go from PowerPoint to Gigafactory?
The answer might be in Norway, so let’s go to Norway.
We are very happy to be joined by Tom Jensen. Tom is CEO of FREYR battery, a Norwegian Gigafactory start-up. In 2021, FREYR raised 600mUSD on the NYSE to make his vision of Speed, Scale and Sustainability come true.
We discuss the strategic positioning, the inherent advantages of Norway which go beyond cheap clean power, we talk about industrialisation, technology, chemistry, supply chain and competition.
Tom is a great admirer of the Swedish neighbour Northvolt, but he plans to catch up fast. With such a great leadership, FREYR will soon be a force to reckon with in the Battery industry.

Thanks to our great partner Aquila Capital

Delivering 24/7 carbon free power is the holy grail for infrastructure funds. Such progress requires a new approach to investing. New technologies need to be harnessed: Hybridization, storage, and data science. The ESG component is also getting additional scrutiny from investors. So, how will the state-of-the-art infrastructure fund of the 2020’s look like.

We have the privilege of welcoming David Scaysbrook, co-founder and managing partner of Quinbrook Infrastructure Partners. We discuss his vision and execution of infrastructure capable of delivering 24/7 carbon free power. Our conversation covers all type of renewables: wind, solar, hydro, biomass, methane recovery and battery storage. We also talk about the growing importance of digital and ESG.

Reference to two great podcasts:
-Jigar Shah, head of Loans Office Program DOE, on Experts Only https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/experts-only-podcast-104-with-commercial-financing/id1277844958?i=1000545651034
-Elon Musk on the Lex Fridman Show
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/252-elon-musk-spacex-mars-tesla-autopilot-self-driving/id1434243584?i=1000546357873

Thank you to our new partner DLA Piper.

Happy new year 2022 to all our listeners.
In this Episode, its Nostradamus vs. Cassandra all over again: Laurent and Gerard review their 2021 predictions (Episode 42) and look forward to the future. How accurate were our two co-hosts’ predictions for 2021?
1) “The Empire strikes back”, legacy players in the Energy and Automotive sectors will bounce back
2) The unstoppable development of renewables
3) The SPACs* valuation hang-over, most of them imploding after reaching unjustifiable valuations
4) The tipping point in EVs production and adoption
5) The renaissance of the Carbon markets
6) The growing leadership of China in the Energy Transition…
Get the results and see how was the more accurate

And now our six predictions for 2022:
1)The Energy Transition is not going to be a smooth ride
2)The Hydro and water crisis
3)The decade of geothermal
4)Energy High Prices
5)Elon Musk (Time’s “Person of the Year”) out of Tesla
6)Power Market Structure Reform

We thank again Aquila Capital for continuing to support the show in 2022, and we have lined up very exciting contents for you all in the coming months. Happy new Year!

*SPAC: Special Purpose Acquisition Company

2021 looked like an “annus horribilis” for the solar industry. Price increases, supply chain problems, threat of taxes on importations. Is the solar industry at the end of 2021 just doom and gloom? Absolutely not. The solar industry has grown an amazing 27% this year, and the trend will continue in 2022.

We bring the best analyst of the industry, Jenny Chase, Head of Solar at Bloomberg NEF to go through the trends, in volume, prices, technologies, supply and demand. We discuss why solar resists all threats and establish itself, despite recent price rises, as the cheapest source of electricity worldwide.
And to finish the year on a high note, this marvelous quote from our eternal hero (and TIME’s Person of the Year) Elon Musk: “The sun is absurdly, overwhelmingly the source of energy in our solar system. Doesn’t even need maintenance – just works!”

We also want to congratulate Patrick Graichen (Ep52) for becoming new Germany’s Secretary of State for Energy and Climate; Michael Barnard (Ep59) second most downloaded episode; and finally, the king, our friend and mentor, Paul Martin (Ep44) for the most downloaded episode of the year (and ever!).

Paul just co-created the Hydrogen Science Coalition (https://h2sciencecoalition.com/), a group of independent academics, scientists and engineers who are working to bring an evidence-based viewpoint to the heart of the hydrogen discussion. We fully endorse that initiative. Go Paul, Tom, Bernard, David and Jochen.

And as we close the year, we thank again our long-term partner Aquila Capital, who has decided to continue next year. Yeah!

Merry Christmas to all our great listeners (before the EU Commission bans it as “too offensive”) and talk to you all in 2022.

EV charging is developing exponentially. It is now a 30bnUSD market per year, growing at a astonishing pace of 20%. More than 1.5m EV charging stations are now operational in the world, 50% in China, 30% in Europe. The US will catch up soon thank to the Biden Infrastructure plan that commits 7.5bnUSD to EV charging.

But ultra-fast charging comes with technical challenges as the impact on the local electricity networks are tremendous. On the one hand, large EV charging networks are being deployed with a commoditised approach and questionable business models; on the other hand, new turn-key sophisticated solutions start to emerge, such as integrating batteries and EV charging, creating micro-grids at retailers’ premises.

We invite Arcady Sosinov, CEO FreeWire Technologies, a Californian Start-Up that has raised more than 100mUSD from leading investors (Riverstone, BP, BlueBear), to discuss the future of Ultra-fast EV charging.

And it is not going to be necessarily what people currently think.

As COP26 comes to a close, there has been a flurry of commitments to invest trillions of dollars in green technologies and carbon neutral projects. That is the core of ESG investing (or is it?).
ESG investing has grown exponentially since the famous 2015 Marc Carney’s speech "Breaking the Tragedy of the Horizon" and the 2020 Blackrock letter “Because capital markets pull future risk forward, we will see changes in capital allocation more quickly than we see changes to the climate itself”. Numbers are dizzying. ESG investment has almost trebled over the last five years, reaching $50 trillion in assets in 2021.

At the same time, ESG investing seems to be victim of its own success with inflated claims not met by facts. With more than 600 ratings and 5,000 metrics, ESG has become a maze where investors are drowned in an “alphabet soup” of standards while some financial institutions seem to be more focused on fees than purpose. At last, the regulators - whether the EU Commission or the SEC - are starting to intervene to create standards.

To try to understand the dynamics of ESG investing, its challenges, effectiveness, and possible solutions, we have invited Catherine Howarth, CEO of Shareaction. Shareaction is a NGO working to assess the quality of sustainability practice of the world’s largest institutional investors, and to hold investors accountable on the gap between their sustainability claims and actions.
We exchange candidly with Catherine on ESG ratings, shareholders’ activism, the divestment movement, and the role of regulators.


References

Shareaction: https://shareaction.org/

Quilter on ESG: https://media.quilter.com/search/greenwashing-tops-investors-concerns-around-esg-products-new-research-finds/
Talking Responsibly: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/talking-responsibly/id1547007524
DivestInvest: https://www.divestinvest.org/
“Doing Good or Feeling Good” by EDHEC: https://energycentral.com/c/ec/doing-good-or-feeling-good-detecting-greenwashing-climate-investing-edhec
EU Taxonomy: https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/banking-and-finance/sustainable-finance/eu-taxonomy-sustainable-activities_en
DWS (Deutsche Bank) rocked by $1trillion SEC greenwashing probe: https://www.internationalinvestment.net/news/4036306/dws-rocked-usd1trillion-sec-greenwashing-probe-reports
Bank of International Settlements: “A taxonomy of taxonomies” https://www.bis.org/publ/bppdf/bispap118.pdf

Renewables are developing very fast, but without a proper distribution system, the energy transition will soon stall. So, what does tomorrow’s green grid looks like? It seems like a dull subject, but the grid modernisation is the necessary condition of a successful roll out of wind, solar and EV Charging.
What needs to change, what type of investment are necessary, not just from a deployment perspective but also in terms of efficiency, costs, and regulation.
We have the privilege of inviting Antonio Cammisecra, Head of Global Infrastructure & Networks at the giant Italian Utility ENEL. ENEL operates distribution networks in eight countries on two continents. Antonio provides us with a ground-breaking vision of tomorrow’s green grid, digital and adaptable. He also unveils breakthrough management techniques such as quantum computing and cyber-security.
Distribution networks should definitely not be underhyped.

Thank you to Aquila Capital for supporting the show

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For the past decade, Natural Gas has been promoted as the “Clean, Reliable and Cheap” fuel to assist the Energy Transition. Well that cosy theory, heavily promoted by the fossil fuel companies, is collapsing in front of our eyes with the Gas crunch affecting Europe, Asia and Latin America.
As of 6 October 2021, TTF (the Dutch gas hub) front month prices briefly touched 160EUR/MWh, 8 times higher than where they were at beginning of the year, and equivalent to a staggering 56USD/mmbtu or 350USD/bbl of Oil.

In this episode, that we record almost live, Gerard and Laurent try to analyse the causes, the impacts, and the long-term consequences of what we dub “The Natgaspocalypse”. We might as well have called the episode “From Russia with love” as we are discussing, amongst other factors, the role of Russia in the current energy crunch.

But a lot of other long-term and short-term factors have come together to create the perfect storm. So, if supply is being analysed, there is also a lot to discuss about demand.

How those crazy energy prices are fed to the final consumers is creating havoc within the Energy supply chain and triggers heavy-handed, hastily designed, government interventions. Such crises certainly distract the decision makers from their lofty “Net Zero by 2050” goals.

Even when the market ends up rebalancing, as commodities market always do, the suddenness of the shock and its magnitude will generate significant consequences that will go beyond price controls and geopolitics. Governments will need to be more hands-on, whether through a faster decarbonisation or simply doubling down on gas.

The Energy Transition will not be a smooth journey.

We thank Aquila Capital for their support
https://www.aquila-capital.de/en/

What are the technological options to compensate for – as the German say - the “Dunkelflaute” (dark doldrums), those winter weeks of low winds and low solar? That’s the code that will have to be cracked by Long Duration Energy Storage (above 8 hours and up to several days). Because, if no realistic solution is implemented in the coming years, we will still have gas peakers in the XXIIth century.
Gerard and Laurent have invited Michael Barnard, an internationally recognised technology cleantech consultant, with world-class expertise on grid storage technology, electrification, and hydrogen.
Together we review and analyse the various options: how far can Li-Ion batteries get us to? How to maximise the value of pumped hydro storage? How to scale flow batteries? Can we even rely of more breakthrough technologies?
It will take time, will need government intervention, energy market reforms, but the solutions are there. Long Duration Energy Storage is definitely the “Final Frontier”.

References
Disclaimer: Michael works as adviser for Agora Energy Technologies - https://agoraenergy.ca/
Prices of batteries: https://about.bnef.com/blog/battery-pack-prices-cited-below-100-kwh-for-the-first-time-in-2020-while-market-average-sits-at-137-kwh/
MIT research:
https://news.mit.edu/2021/powering-energy-transition-better-storage-0329
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-021-00796-8

Steel and cement with their 2,000 mills and 3,000 kilns, together currently emit 15% of the world’s CO2. So far, they’ve been exempted from carbon trading or carbon pricing, which means no significant reductions have been implemented. But in a 1.5degree and Net Zero scenarios, they start to feel the pressure.

We brought Dolf Gielen, Director Innovation and Technology at IRENA (International Renewable Energy Agency) into the conversation to try to understand why those industries are so hard to decarbonise. And we are focusing the debate on a very simple choice: do you fix the fuel (with CCS – Carbon Capture and Storage of CO2) or do you switch the fuel (with – for example Hydrogen or Biomass)?

There are a lot of hurdles to overcome, such as: bad economics, international competition (especially for steel, not so for cement), and regulators who don’t seem to be very interested.

Some promising options are now on the table, but they will require massive governments interventions.

References:
Engineering with Rosie (Youtube) on CCS technologies: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fC388uNJhUY

An excellent blog on cement emissions:
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/co2-emission-from-cement-industry-whats-best-estimate-claude-lorea/

McKinsey on decarbonizing Steel:
https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/metals-and-mining/our-insights/decarbonization-challenge-for-steel

Dolf Gielen: https://www.linkedin.com/in/dolf-gielen-852ab514/

And, last but not least, a hilarious video explaining really how CCS/CCUS works
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MSZgoFyuHC8

Many Thanks to Aquila Capital for supporting the show
https://www.aquila-capital.de/en/

Methane is the largest source of greenhouse gas after CO2. The latest IPCC report has flagged the issue as “Code Red”. Until recently, Methane Emissions had not been universally monitored nor managed. Hence, how can Natural Gas legitimately claim that is it is a “bridge fuel” in the fight against Climate Change?
Thankfully, the landscape is starting to evolve; and it’s about time, as methane emissions represent 8x those of the much-publicised aviation sector.
Behind this major improvement is the non-for-profit MIQ, co-piloted by the prestigious RMI (Rocky Mountain Institute). MIQ had devised a ranking system for all Oil and Gas provenance, assessing and grading the content of venting, leaking, and flaring. The MIQ system leads to third party certification, a major milestone in the fight against Climate Change.
Gerard and Laurent seat with Georges Tijbosch, senior advisor at MIQ, who is deploying those major advancements, which might have significant geopolitical implications.
Finally, Gerard debunks Laurent’s wild conspiracy theories around Russian gas.

References:
MIQ: https://miq.org/
Capterio: https://capterio.com/flareintel
Kayrros: https://www.kayrros.com/methane-watch/

A great thanks to Aquila Capital for supporting the show: https://www.aquila-capital.de/en/

The future of Sustainable Aviation is a very hot topic, but there are currently more questions than answers:
How much of the aviation can be electrified? Will innovation come from start-ups teaming up with VCs or large OEMs? What new systems will have to be designed and certified? Is Hydrogen a solution or a fantasy? What role will biofuels and e-fuels play?
To enrich the debate, Gerard and Laurent have invited Toby McCann to assess the various routes. Toby McCann is an Aviator and an Aircraft Engineering manager at Thales, veteran of the Fleet Air Arm with over 25 years' operating around the globe. He is also one of the top experts in Sustainable Aviation.

Toby McCann: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tobymccann/
List of all new Electric planes starts ups: https://aamrealityindex.com/
Look at this beauty: https://www.faradair.com/

A great thanks to Aquila Capital for supporting the show: https://www.aquila-capital.de/en/

2020 has proven a turning point in the EV market, and the trend is accelerating in 2021: more models, stronger public policies, mass roll-out of charging infrastructure, and a 300bnUSD race to catch up on Tesla.

What’s the current state of play in the EV market? Among the OEMs, which are the Tesla challengers, and which are the laggards? Do the SPACs have any future? What are the Chinese up to? What to think about innovative outsiders such as Rivian and Rimac? What about vertical integration, software developments, autonomy, and new services?

A refreshing open conversation with our friend James Carter, a 25-year veteran of the Automotive industry and recognized sharpest mind on the future of mobility.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamescartertoronto/

Check our friends:
Benchmark Mineral Intelligence: https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/
Rho Motion: https://rhomotion.com/

A great thanks to Aquila Capital for supporting the show: https://www.aquila-capital.de/en/

The development of renewables has made power markets much more volatile, hence “volatility is the new gold”. Harnessing that volatility requires skills much beyond the traditional Energy Trader’s capabilities: welcome to the new digital energy trading system.
To discuss those changes, we are invited Peter Bance, CEO of Origami. Origami’s patented technology enables energy companies to seamlessly bring together real-time data from physical assets, financial markets, and existing customer systems to optimise power trading.
Peter offers us a view into a new type of Energy Trading where the Grid is dominated by Renewables.

Thanks again to our partner, Aquila Capital
https://www.aquila-capital.de/en/

Navigating the Energy Transition for an Oil Major is not that simple. Decades-old simple centralised molecules energy systems are making way to decentralised electrons models. Some Oil Majors have simply decided to ignore the Energy transition, others - like Shell - are trying to adapt their business to it.
A trading company by DNA, Shell has decided to mostly focus its strengths on the mid-stream and downstream segments. New businesses are being launched or acquired, centred around digital, trading, Virtual Power Plants (VPP) and EV charging.
It is still early days to conclude if Shell will be able to ride the Energy Transition, but some green shoots, under the leadership of our guest, Ulrika Wising, Global VP Customer Solutions at Shell Renewables & Energy Solutions, are certainly promising.
Will Oil Majors turn into Energy Majors? For once Gerard and Laurent disagree on pretty much everything!
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Thank you to our partner Aquila Capital
https://www.aquila-capital.de/en/

Germany is rightly portrayed as a pioneer in the development of wind and solar. For the past two decades, the German government has granted a) a very stable framework b) very generous terms to renewables. And the “Energiewende” (the Energy Transition) as this policy is named, has delivered exceptional results, as the share of renewables has jumped from 6% to 50% of the electricity mix.
But the cost to consumers has been significant. German Energy policy is very political and there is a lot of money flowing around without much consideration for economic realities.
As the German Green party is expected to become an ever-dominant political actor, especially in view of the Autumn 2021 elections, we wanted to have a conversation with one of its most prominent inspirers: Patrick Graichen, who – after a long career in the German Ministry of Energy and Environment – leads the Agora Energiewende think tank.
Where is the Energiewende today? What lessons can we learn from the past? How would a green-inspired Energy Transition continue to evolve both for Germany and Europe? Patrick delivers a unique insight into the future of the Energiewende.

Agora-Energiewende: https://www.agora-energiewende.de/en/

Thanks to our partner - Aquila Capital: https://www.aquila-capital.de/en/

While coal is being phased out in Europe and America, it is still the dominant source of energy in Asia. Why is that? And how will the situation evolve? Is there any teeth behind the net zero pledges for the second part of the century? In other words, is coal here to stay in Asia or has the tide started to turn?
There is no better expert on the subject that Tim Buckley, Director of Energy Finance Studies at IEEFA (The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis), a thinktank examining issues related to energy markets, trends, and policies.
With Tim, we discover that the debate is much more than about pure climate change: it is about growth, jobs, energy security and technology. We end up with a positive message: it is really the beginning of the end for coal in Asia.

Thank you to Aquila Capital for supporting the show
https://www.aquila-capital.de/en/

Links to IEEFA
Tim Buckley https://www.linkedin.com/in/tim-buckley-0a654313/
IEEFA https://ieefa.org/

Ember Climate
https://ember-climate.org/

And finally, our hero from down under
Pablo Brait https://www.linkedin.com/in/pablo-brait-37a716117/

“Sorry, I’m getting emotional when it comes to smart meters”. Part of Eurelectric’ s Power Summit 2021, we have had a great conversation with Dr Leonhard Birnbaum, the new CEO of E.ON.
E.ON is a massive German Utility that has spent the last decade (aka “the lost decade”) selling its coal plants, exiting from nuclear and swapping assets with ex rival RWE. After this reinvention, E.ON can now face the 2020’s with a strong balance sheet and a clear strategy. How to make the most of its two main businesses, retail and networks? What is the impact of digitisation (EV charging, smart meters) on its revenue model? Will it have to adopt a more aggressive strategy than just deleveraging and distributing dividends? To summarise: is E.ON going to be a prey or a predator?
Dr Leonhard Birnbaum faces all our questions with humour, humility, and comes up with a clear vision for his company.
We would like to thank Kristian Ruby and the talented team of Eurelectric for organising the debate. https://www.eurelectric.org/
We thank our partner Aquila Capital for supporting the show - https://www.aquila-capital.de/en/
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@Redef_Energy

The energy retail sector is also experiencing its version of the energy transition, where incumbents with legacy systems are challenged by new entrants rolling out ground-breaking digital platforms.
Beyond the digital supremacy, disruptors bring a new approach to consumers' needs, much closer to Amazon than a Utility. We have invited one of the leading new entrants, Greg Jackson, CEO of Octopus Energy, to discuss innovations, new pricings systems, and its tech, called “Kraken”. Greg explains how to overcome regulatory hurdles which are benefiting the established companies and shares with us how he is on the cusp of conquering the world from its base of 20m clients.

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We thank our partner Aquila Capital for supporting the show - https://www.aquila-capital.de/en/
10GW portfolio! Fantastic.

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Finally, thanks to Rosie Barnes, you can also see us on Youtube!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=6B65dYBxIgU

China manufactures 2/3 of the world’s solar panels and 2/3 of the world’s batteries. How does it look on the ground? What technological advances do Chinese companies have and what does it means for the future?
There is no better source of knowledge on the subject of Solar and Batteries that someone based in China and whose teams are inspecting hundreds of factories. This is for real; and, as usual in China, dynamics are complex… but the results are staggering.
Andy Klump, CEO of CEA (Clean Energy Associates) share with Gerard and Laurent his world-class expertise of what’s happening in the solar and battery industries. The conversation also delves into ESG, carbon content and traceability questions. Ever declining costs are a very positive message for the Energy Transition.
Thank you to Aquila Capital (https://www.aquila-capital.de/en/) for supporting the show.

In Episode 47, we dive into the exponential development of batteries into the Grid: the Energy Storage industry is doubling size every year. One of the key market is the UK, where the market is expected to x10 this decade because of the rise of renewables, the electrification of transport and heating, and the need for an ever-greater resiliency.
We wanted to discuss the various aspects of investing in Batteries with Ben Guest, Managing Director at Gresham House, a very talented and innovative Infrastructure Asset Manager. What are the opportunities and the challenges to invest in Batteries from a technical, digital and equity points of view? What are the revenues and how will they evolve? Where is the technology leading us? And so much more is the truly enlightening episode
We thank Aquila Capital for supporting the show!
https://www.aquila-capital.de/en/

After several black outs in the past months, the irresistible growing trend towards electrification and the relentless rise of renewables, the grid has become the indispensable nervous system of the energy transition. How can the grid manage more intermittent and decentralized sources while ensuring more resiliency in dire and more recurrent weather extremes.
Gerhard Salge, CTO Hitachi ABB Power Grids provides solutions for a modernised XXIst Century super-grid. The super-grid will be strengthen through interconnectors and AI, but also integrate new usages such as emobility, heating, and industrial uses like steel and mining. This is a journey where digisation, virtual inertia, mini-hubs are the new tool to build, manage and strengthen the XXist century supergrid. Massive investments and new mindsets will be key to a cleaner and more resilient electrical world.
Thank you to our partner - Aquila Capital - for supporting the show.
Visit Aquila Capital: https://www.aquila-capital.de/en/

The UK Green Industrial Revolution was introduced by Boris Johnson, UK Prime Minister, in 2020. It is a holistic approach to decarbonisation, but we wanted to focus on one of its key aspects: the development of the largest offshore wind farms in the world.
Beyond climate change, it is about innovation, new opportunities and massive jobs creation. We have invited two young engineers working on those gigantic projects Ajai Ahluwalia of Equinor and Virginia Ruiz of ScottishPower-Iberdrola. On the top of their daily jobs, they have both volunteered to work in the shadow board of RenewableUK (the trade association representing the renewable energy sector) and they are actively preparing COP26.
It is great to have young, diverse guests on the show, not just old grumpy white dudes. The passion and dedication of Millennials is definitely powering the Green Industrial Revolution.

Why are engineers, politicians and financiers talking about Hydrogen all the time? And why are they throwing billions of subsidies or investment in companies in that sector?
Is Hydrogen a problem, with its hundreds of millions tonnes of CO2 emissions per year or a “Swiss Army Knife” solution that will help decarbonise Mobility, Heating and God knows what?
Should decarbonising the current Hydrogen production be the initial goal? Carbon Capture, Electrolysers: do those technologies make sense from an economic perspective, are there technology breakthroughs ahead or does someone will have to foot the bill?
Rather than trying to fix the fuel, should we not instead switch the fuel and electrify everything?
Those are all the subjects that are covered in this long Episode, and answers are… complicated.
Fortunately, we have our friend Paul Martin on the show, to try to make sense of all those options, and dissociate the Hope from the Hype.

References:
•Electrification: Mark Jacobson
•Mobility: James Carter (and check Auke Hoestra on twitter)
•Aviation: Toby McCann
•Lobbying: THE HYDROGEN HYPE https://corporateeurope.org/sites/default/files/2020-12/hydrogen-report-web-final_3.pdf
•Finally, a lot of good material from our friends John Poljack and Alex Grant