Superinvestors and the Art of Worldly Wisdom

At first blush, Keith McCullough may come off as just another brash and cocksure trader. Dig a bit deeper, though, and you'll find a calculating iconoclast driven by a deep desire to both continually improve as an investor and, ultimately, change Wall Street for the better. After starting in a job running buy and sell tickets, Keith worked his way up to running a portfolio and eventually to founding his own hedge fund. Today, he runs Hedgeye, a research service established with the goal of giving individual investors a look behind the curtain of a major macro hedge fund environment. In this conversation, Keith discusses how he developed his four quadrant macro framework that informs all of his investing decisions and how he uses it today. He also reveals how volatility can be used as a buy or sell signal and how getting fired taught him the greatest life lesson of all: to bet on himself. For notes and links related to this episode visit TheFelderReport.com.

There are very few truly unique thinkers in the world and almost none of them regularly train their gaze on Wall Street. Peter Atwater is one of those rare few. Whenever a major news story hits the tape, it's Peter's opinion I look to to begin to understand what it means for markets and the world because of the grounded and clear-headed insight he brings to the table. Three years ago, on this show he accurately forecasted the current "backlash era" we now find ourselves in. In this episode, he discusses where we stand in this process today. Peter also postulates how companies and markets might fare amidst the coming "age of screwtiny." For notes and links related to this episode visit TheFelderReport.com.

You could say that natural resources run in Leigh Goering's blood. The son of two oil and gas engineers, Leigh has spent nearly his entire life studying markets and investments related to commodities. Over the past 30 years, he has become one of the most brilliant and passionate analysts and money managers in the industry. In this conversation, Leigh shares the details of his macro and micro research process and how he applies them to investing in natural resource stocks. He also details the case for a coming energy crisis and why energy stocks present investors with a generational opportunity today. For notes and links related to this episode visit TheFelderReport.com.

Mike Green has been in the right place at the right time for his entire investment career and not just by way of good fortune. Mike has an uncanny knack for finding value in the markets. After jumping into the small cap value game in 1999 and taking advantage of one of the best runs for value as a factor in history he moved on to explore opportunities in hedging via derivatives in 2006, just prior to the Great Financial Crisis. Shortly thereafter, massive mispricings in the option market driven by the sudden popularity of tail hedging strategies gave him a new source for profit. Then, well prior to the volmageddon episode of early-2018, he became aware of the fragility created by the increasingly crowded short volatility trade and designed a strategy to profit from its demise. As his track record demonstrates, Mike is one of the most insightful market detectives in the world and in this conversation he reveals where he finds the greatest value in the markets today. For notes and links related to this episode visit TheFelderReport.com.

It's been three years since I made the trek up to Seattle to interview celebrated short seller Bill Fleckenstein on the topics of, "Central Bankers, Financial Bubbles and White Burgundy." With a global pandemic now threatening to burst these bubbles, forcing central bankers into even more extreme monetary policies, I thought it was an opportune time to reconnect with Bill and get his thoughts on how these things are evolving and how investors might seek to profit in their midst. For notes and links related to this episode visit TheFelderReport.com.

Christopher Cole is one of the foremost thinkers and practitioners in the world of volatility trading. After beginning his career in Hollywood as a cinematographer, Chris took an interest in options trading. Eventually, this led to a job at Merrill Lynch where he was able to explore the subject of risk further and in a professional capacity. After personally profiting through employing his volatility strategies during the Great Financial Crisis, Chris founded Artemis Capital Management in order to offer his services to institutional and hedge fund investors. In this episode, Chris discusses his personal evolution as a trader and hedge fund manager and also shares his unique insights into portfolio construction gleaned from an extensive study of market history his firm recently conducted. For notes and links related to this episode visit TheFelderReport.com.

Rob Arnott is one of the most accomplished and respected quantitative analysts in the world. He has written over 100 academic papers on everything from tactical asset allocation to value investing. In this episode, Rob discusses his evolution as an investor, from tailoring his college major in the late-1970's to best position him for a career in quantitative investing to the founding of his firm, Research Affiliates, in 2002. He also shares the details of the uniquely successful indexing strategy he developed over a decade ago to fix the major problems with the most popular form of passive investing and to improve on its long run performance. For notes and links related to this episode visit TheFelderReport.com.

You would be hard-pressed to find anyone who has done more to educate and inform individual investors about the fundamentals of effective investing than Meb Faber. Over the past decade and longer, through books like Global Asset Allocation, Meb has taken key concepts, which Wall Street has suggested for years are too complex for individuals to understand let alone implement, and made them easily accessible for almost anyone to quickly absorb. In this conversation, Meb discusses why passive investing as we know it today is not nearly as efficient as most believe, how owning just one fund allows him to be far more effectively diversified than investors who own dozens, why the investment industry as we know it today is in terminal decline and how investors and finance professionals alike should position themselves to take advantage of its evolution in coming years. For notes and links related to this episode visit TheFelderReport.com.

When it comes to global macro investing, Louis-Vincent Gave is one of the most interesting thinkers in the world. His firm, GaveKal, puts out some of the most compelling research on Wall Street and beyond and, as CEO, Louis' unique investment process is at the heart of it. In this episode, he discusses his family tradition in both the French military and in the capital markets, how he developed his own signature investment framework and some of the key themes driving his current views on markets around the globe. For notes and links related to this episode visit TheFelderReport.com.

Michael Oliver has been studying markets for over four decades but it was the 1987 stock market crash that became his "aha!" moment and converted him to what he calls "momentum structural analysis." It was his early work in the area that prepared him for that massive decline in stock prices and the success of its forecasting ability that gave him the confidence to pursue it full time. Many technical analysts like to say, "price is truth," but to Michael price can be deceiving and it's only by isolating the momentum in the market that reveals the truth about the underlying trend. In this episode, Michael shares the details of his unique research and analysis process and discusses how his foundation in political philosophy ended up leading him to it. He also reveals what it says about the current market and economic environment and how it eerily rhymes with some earlier times in his career. For links and notes related to this episode visit TheFelderReport.com.

Diego Parrilla has been eerily prescient in calling major turning points in a variety of markets over the past several years. Back in 2014, he published The Energy World Is Flat in which he detailed the coming crash in the price of crude oil and the various dynamics that would ensure such an outcome. Oil prices subsequently fell more than 70% over the next couple of years. In August of 2017, he published a new book titled, The Anti-Bubbles, in which he laid out the case for a rise in volatility across a number of markets. Just a few months later, the short volatility ETF complex blew up and in spectacular fashion amidst a record run higher in the VIX Index. In this interview, we delve into Diego's unique background and how it helps him to see things differently than most on Wall Street. Diego also shares the details of his research process and the original inspiration behind these investment theses. Finally, we discuss the current state of the global markets and why he believes gold is set to shine in the near future. For notes and links related to this episode visit TheFelderReport.com.

Erik Townsend is unique in the investing world for his deep expertise in two seemingly disparate fields: security technology and macro investing. This rare perspective gives him extraordinary insight into the intersection of the two and how they are likely to affect global markets in the future. In his new book, Beyond Blockchain, Erik discusses these trends in great detail, covering the history of money, the rise of the dollar as the world's reserve currency and the origin and evolution of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. Moreover, he imagines a future world order, not dominated by cryptocurrency, but enabled by the technology underpinning it and advanced by powerful macro trends already at work in the markets and global politics today. In this episode, Erik discusses why cryptocurrency, backed by cypherpunks and their acolytes, is doomed to fail at its primary purpose yet digital currency, backed by sovereign nations and inspired by the innovations developed by the crypto community, is destined to succeed in its place while displacing the dollar's global hegemony along with the massive implications of these developments for investors around the world. For notes and links related to this episode visit TheFelderReport.com.

Have we entered a new era of sustainably high corporate profit margins or will they revert over time to more normal historical levels? This is the single most important question equity investors should be asking today and nobody has done more work on this topic than Jonathan Tepper. Formerly, an equity analyst at one of the most successful hedge funds on the planet, then a prop trader at one of the largest firms on Wall Street, Jonathan today runs Variant Perception, an institutional research service. He also recently published a new book, The Myth of Capitalism, his survey of the profit margin phenomenon and its consequences for investors and citizens alike. In this episode, we discuss the social and economic consequences of increased consolidation and regulatory capture in corporate America and what it means for markets going forward. Jonathan also shares the unique and tragic experiences of his formative years and how they inspired both a strong work ethic and a deep desire to make a difference. For links and notes related to this episode visit TheFelderReport.com.

Fred Hickey has been writing The High Tech Strategist, a monthly investment newsletter, for over 30 years. Over that time, he has developed an intensive research process focused on the tech sector that gives him extensive familiarity with dozens of individual companies within it along with unique insight into the broader economy. In this episode, Fred discusses what his research routines look like on daily and monthly basis and how his writing discipline has helped him become a better investor. He also tells the story meeting legendary investor Sir John Templeton near the peak of the dotcom mania and what he learned from that poignant experience. In addition, we discuss how he has incorporated a macro approach into his micro-focused investment discipline and why he chooses to spend so much time in Costa Rica these days. For notes and links related to this episode visit TheFelderReport.com.

Jerry Parker began his career as an unfulfilled accountant looking for something more inspiring to do with his life. After getting rejected for several traditional jobs on Wall Street he responded to an ad looking for a handful of people eager to learn how to trade. It would soon turn out those early rejections were an incredible blessing in disguise because if he had been accepted to any one of them he would have likely missed out on the opportunity to learn from one of the true legends of finance. In the early 1980's, Richard Dennis hired Jerry and a handful of other prospective "turtle" traders and taught them the strategies that made him one of the most successful traders in the history of the Chicago markets. After managing money with Dennis for several years, Jerry went on to start his own firm and has been trend-following professionally for over 30 years now. In this conversation, he reveals what he believes helped him stand out among more than 1,000 candidates in the turtle program, what it was about trend-following that spoke to him and what about it should appeal to the average investor. He also explains how the average investor should go about implementing trend-following in her own portfolio. For links and notes related to this episode visit TheFelderReport.com.

W. Ben Hunt, Ph.D. looks at the financial markets through a truly unique lens. With an extensive background in political science, game theory and history, Ben came to the financial markets relatively late in life. But it's precisely this wandering path to the world of investing that gives him rare insight into what drives asset prices and how these forces change over time. In this conversation we discuss how investors as a group play the "common knowledge game" and how Ben views these trends through what he terms a "narrative machine." Ben also shares his views towards the current trends of rising inflationary pressures, the backlash against big tech and much more. For links and notes related to this episode visit TheFelderReport.com.

Grant Williams cut his teeth in the world of finance during one of the greatest speculative manias in history. As a prop trader at one of the largest firms in Tokyo, he had a front row seat to the epic Japanese twin bubbles in equities and real estate in the late-1980's which endowed him with a healthy skepticism towards herd behavior in the financial markets. Eventually, he would go on to a serve in similar roles in nearly all of the world's largest financial centers but not before he learned what he believes to be one of the most important lessons in the investing game: simply surround yourself with brilliant people and just listen. Today, he does this full time for RealVision where his long-form interviews with some of the greatest minds in the industry are produced and aired. He also shares much of what he learns through this process in his nearly decade-old publication "Things That Make You Go Hmmm...." In this conversation, we discuss some of the parallels between the bubbles of the past and the bubbles in today's markets, his evolution as a trader and how it was shaped by his careful listening to so many brilliant people over the years and much more.

Eric Cinnamond has been called, “the godfather of small cap absolute return investing.” From 1998 to 2016 he ran an equity investment strategy that handily beat the 8% average annual return of the Russell 2000 Index. But what’s even more impressive is he did this while holding an average cash allocation of about 40% so his equity performance was roughly double that of the index. In this episode we discuss, in the words of Lincoln Electric CFO Vince Petrella, 'the rapidly increasing inflationary environment' and how it is currently affecting Corporate America, investors, the economy and monetary policy. For notes and links related to this conversation visit TheFelderReport.com.

Simon Mikhailovich emigrated from the Soviet Union at the age of 19 with his family and just $100 in a suitcase. After putting himself through college he began a career in finance. Eventually, he found himself at the leading edge of the development of the financial derivatives that would be at the center of the great financial crisis. Upon successfully navigating those rough investing waters, he turned his attention to effectively hedging risk in an era of mass financialization. Today he manages the Tocqueville Bullion Reserve, a limited partnership focusing on the efficient ownership of physical gold. In this conversation, we discuss the end of the great debt super cycle, its implications for both financial assets and real assets and how gold represents the ultimate insurance policy during this time of growing uncertainty. Visit TheFelderReport.com/podcast for links and charts related to this episode.

Roger McNamee is one of the most successful technology investors of all time. While running the T. Rowe Price Science & Technology Fund, and generating a 17% compound average growth rate in the process, Roger made the unheard of move of committing capital, as a mutual fund manager, to venture investments in Electronic Arts and Sybase. From there, he started the industry's first crossover fund with John Doer, investing in both late-stage venture capital and public market securities. In March of 2000, he co-founded private equity firm Silver Lake Partners in anticipation of the tech bust and, in 2004, founded Elevation Partners where he would become one of the first investors in Facebook and other nascent tech stars. In this episode, Roger shares what made him so successful as an investor, how music saved his life and why he has shifted his focus today from investing in tech to warning of the rising risks tech giants present to democracy and society. For notes and links related to this episode visit TheFelderReport.com/podcast

Among professional investors, Kiril Sokoloff is well known for his ability to identify major trends early on in their development cycle. For this reason his views are some of the most sought out in the world of finance. Since 1983 he has been sharing his thoughts about markets and more at the firm he founded, 13D Research, via its weekly report, What I Learned This Week. In this episode, we discuss his research process, how he goes about identifying these major trends and his current views about markets and economies around the world. For notes and links related to this episode visit TheFelderReport.com/podcast.

Tobias Carlisle runs Carbon Beach Asset Management and is the author of several books including Deep Value, Concentrated Investing and his latest, The Acquirer's Multiple. In this episode we discuss both the similarities and the differences between the successful value investing methodologies employed by investing greats like Warren Buffett and Carl Icahn. Toby also shares his views on the "death of value," focused investing and position sizing and updates his views on some recent stock picks. For notes and links related to this Episode visit TheFelderReport.com/podcast.

Peter Atwater was pioneer in securitization and has served in important leadership roles at some of the largest financial institutions on the planet. Today, he writes and speaks extensively about how changes in confidence affect our preferences, decisions and actions. In this episode we discuss how he discovered socionomics, what about it appealed to him and how it shapes his views on the markets and more. For links and notes related to this episode visit TheFelderReport.com/podcast.

Erik Townsend is a retired software entrepreneur turned hedge fund manager and host of the Macro Voices podcast. In this conversation Erik shares some of his formative experiences like breaking into MIT as a teenager to eventually selling his software firm near the height of dotcom mania. He explains why it "sucked" being a young retiree on a yacht in the Caribbean and how he's much happier today working long hours at his trading desk running his hedge fund. He also discusses his current macro framework and some of major themes that inform his trading today. For links and notes related to our conversation visit TheFelderReport.com/podcast.

To regular listeners, Mark Yusko needs no introduction. It was just a few months ago he appeared on the podcast to discuss Gut Instinct (And Why His Says We're Headed For A Crash). This time Mark shares his thoughts on the wild popularity of passive investing, the outright disdain for hedge fund investing and his potential 10-year bet with Warren Buffett. For notes and links related to this episode visit TheFelderReport.com/Podcast.

Danielle DiMartino Booth started her career on Wall Street before shifting gears into journalism where she caught the eye of none other than the Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett. Eventually, she found herself working as an advisor to Richard Fisher at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Today, she shares her thoughts with institutional investors via "Money Strong," her weekly newsletter, and is the author of a new book, Fed Up: An Insider's Take On Why The Federal Reserve Is Bad For America. In this episode we discuss her experience inside the Federal Reserve, her qualms with its popular policies over the past few decades and her thoughts on how they could be rectified. For notes and links related to this episode visit TheFelderReport.com/podcast.

Dale Wettlaufer began his career as a fool, a Motley Fool that is, where he first learned to ply his trade as an analyst. A few years later, he found himself working in the same capacity for a legitimate mutual fund rock star. Today he runs a long/short strategy under his own shingle. In this conversation, Dale discusses what he learned during his time with Bill Miller at Legg Mason and how his value investing discipline has evolved into that which he employs at his new firm, Charlotte Lane Capital. For notes and links related to this episode visit TheFelderReport.com/podcast.

William White started his career at the Bank of England before moving to the Bank for International Settlements where he served as chief economist. Today he is the chairman of the Economic and Development Review Committee at the OECD in Paris. Last fall Bill received the Adam Smith prize, the highest honor of the US National Association of Business Economists, where he gave a speech titled Ultra-Easy Money: Digging the Hole Deeper? In this conversation we discuss where his contrarian economic philosophy comes from, how it leads him to worry a bit more than most about the undesired side effects of experimental monetary policy and its possible end games. For notes and links related to this episode visit TheFelderReport.com.

Mark Yusko cut his teeth co-managing the endowment portfolio at Notre Dame and then putting together a team to do the same for the University of North Carolina. From there he setup a fund of hedge funds for Julian Robertson to take advantage of the talent Julian had identified at Tiger Management. Today, he oversees $3 billion at his firm Morgan Creek Capital Management. Mark is one of the most avid and astute students of value investing as a discipline I've come across. In this conversation we discuss his evolution as an investor, how and why he learned to listen to his gut and what it's telling him today: that we could be headed for a stock market crash. For notes, links and charts related to this episode visit TheFelderReport.com/podcast.

Raoul Pal readily admits he had the good fortune of being in the right place at the right time very early in his investment career. After getting his start during the depths of the recession brought on by the savings and loan crisis, Raoul eventually found himself covering the hedge fund industry for Goldman Sachs. Here he was essentially mentored by the likes of Louis Bacon, Julian Robertson and Paul Tudor Jones. In this conversation, Raoul discusses the lessons he learned during this time, the greatest trade he ever witnessed and how these helped form the global macro investing framework he uses today. He also shares some of his current investment ideas along with what he sees as the most glaring and massive risk to individual investors over the coming decade. For links and charts related to this episode visit TheFelderReport.com.

Helene Meisler started her career on Wall Street when a career on Wall Street, let alone being a woman on Wall Street, was a contrarian move. She eventually found her way to working for trading legend Justin Mamis and has been charting the markets by hand (yes, that means pencil and paper) ever since. In this episode, she shares the smartest lesson she's learned in her career, her favorite stock market indicators and discusses her "fat pitch" trade setup. You can follow Helene on Twitter @hmeisler and read her daily column "Top Stocks" at TheStreet.com. For notes, links and charts related to this episode visit TheFelderReport.com.

"Do what you love, with people you respect while serving the greater good." These are the words Todd Harrison lives by. In this episode we discuss how this motto has served him through his career in finance which spans three decades and how it led him to his most recent venture. Back in 2012, Todd said cannabis would emerge as "the single best investment over the next decade." He's now putting his money where his mouth is in starting the first cannabis wellness-focused hedge fund in existence. He discusses his framework for evaluating investment opportunities in the space along with some of his favorite individual ideas. Follow Todd on twitter @todd_harrison and @CB1Cap for updates on the industry. For notes and links related to this episode visit TheFelderReport.com.

If you have spent any time around the markets, Tom McClellan is a name you are probably already familiar with. Tom's parents invented McClellan Oscillator and McClellan Summation Index, two of the most useful of technical indicators. But Tom is also a terrific technician in his own right, carrying the torch his parents first lit back in the 1960's. He has created some of the most creative and effective stock market models I have ever seen. In this conversation we discuss both the history of these models and how Tom integrates them into his own trading process today. Tom regularly shares his wealth of knowledge and experience at mcoscillator.com. You can also follow him on twitter @McClellanOsc. For links and notes related to our discussion visit TheFelderReport.com/podcast.

Over the past 30 years, Bill Fleckenstein has managed money for Bill Gates, witnessed and profited from four epic financial bubbles and honed his palate for white Burgundy. As a dedicated short seller during the activist central bank era, Bill shares in this episode how he developed his process over time including the specific tactics he now employs to profit from declining prices. We also discuss the unique problems presented by experimental monetary policy to both the economy and financial markets. Finally, Bill reveals what he believes to be “one of the fattest pitches out there” for short sellers in the current market along with the unique risks the current environment presents to the average investor. Find Bill online at FleckensteinCapital.com and @FlecksThoughts on Twitter. For notes and links related to this episode visit TheFelderReport.com/podcast.

Jim Grant calls Steven Bregman, "one of Wall Street's most interesting thinkers." I called upon him to share his thoughts on the massive and growing trend to passive investing which he calls, "the greatest bubble ever." He discusses the differences between the current bubble in the financial markets and prior bubbles, the specific distortions created in the markets and the unique opportunities they present. Perhaps most importantly, Steven reveals the little-discussed structural shift in passive investing which dramatically devalues it as a strategy and how investors have been deceived by historical return figures that are not applicable to the products they own today. We also get into his personal history in the financial industry along with his evolution as an investor and more. For notes and links related to the episode visit TheFelderReport.com.

Eric Cinnamond has been called "the godfather of small cap absolute return investing." From 1998 to 2016 he ran an equity investment strategy that handily beat the 8% average annual return of the Russell 2000 Index. But what's even more impressive is he did this while holding an average cash allocation of about 40% so his equity performance was roughly double that of the index. In this episode we discuss his background and his evolution as an investor. We also delve into his current process which entails his close study of roughly 300 companies. He reveals how he looks at business valuation and how he evaluates risk in that context. We also get into the current market environment and talk about how his discipline requires that he take an extreme contrarian position today both with his investments and his career. For notes and links regarding this episode visit TheFelderReport.com.

This episode is an introduction to Jesse Felder and his podcast, Superinvestors and the Art of Worldly Wisdom. Jesse has been managing money for over 20 years. He began his professional career at Bear, Stearns & Co. and later co-founded a multi-billion-dollar hedge fund firm headquartered in Santa Monica, California. Since founding The Felder Report in 2005 his writing has been featured in many major finance publications like The Wall Street Journal, Barron's, The Huffington Post, MarketWatch, Yahoo!Finance, Business Insider, Investing.com, Seeking Alpha and more. Today he lives in Bend, Oregon with his wife and two kids. Superinvestors and the Art of Worldly Wisdom is a new journey for Jesse in an effort to better understand the commonalities among the greatest investors in the world and also what makes them unique. Visit TheFelderReport.com for more information including notes and links related to this episode.