The Circuit

In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the unexpected retirement of Pat Gelsinger from Intel and its implications for the company's future. They explore the strategic direction Intel may take post-Gelsinger, the challenges of leadership transition, and the importance of product focus versus foundry operations. The conversation delves into the need for a growth strategy in a competitive landscape and the potential paths forward for Intel as it navigates these changes. In this conversation, Jay Goldberg and Ben Bajarin discuss the current state and future of Intel, focusing on its CPU market position, the challenges it faces with its Foundry strategy, and the implications of TSMC's market power. They explore the sentiment surrounding Intel, the role of the board in shaping its future, and the technological optimism tied to upcoming products. The discussion highlights the need for competitive foundries in the semiconductor industry and the potential consequences of TSMC's dominance.

In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss Qualcomm's recent Analyst Day and NVIDIA's earnings report. They analyze Qualcomm's shift towards becoming a compute-centric company, the challenges in the smartphone market, and the potential growth in automotive and IoT sectors. The conversation then shifts to NVIDIA, where they explore the implications of its recent earnings, the end of its rapid growth phase, and the competitive landscape in inference technology. The hosts emphasize the importance of execution for Qualcomm and the evolving dynamics in the semiconductor industry.

In this enlightening conversation, Ben Bajarin hosts Apple executives Tom Boger and Tim Millet to discuss the significance of Apple Silicon in the company's product ecosystem. They delve into the relentless pursuit of performance per watt, the integration of hardware and software, and Apple's unique approach to AI and on-device intelligence. The discussion also covers how Apple manages to push performance boundaries in a landscape where Moore's Law is slowing down, emphasizing the importance of architecture, design, and technology in their strategy.

In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss recent earnings reports from Arm and Qualcomm, analyzing market reactions and the implications of ongoing lawsuits. They delve into Qualcomm's diversification strategy, particularly in the automotive sector, and the potential impact of political changes on semiconductor policy. The conversation also touches on Nvidia's strong demand and supply constraints, highlighting the cyclical nature of the semiconductor industry and the challenges ahead.

In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the latest earnings reports from AMD and Intel, focusing on market expectations, performance, and the challenges faced by both companies. They analyze AMD's struggle to meet high investor expectations in the AI market and Intel's ongoing turnaround efforts under CEO Pat Gelsinger, highlighting the balance between financial prudence and technological leadership. The conversation also touches on the mixed reactions from the market regarding Intel's recent earnings and the implications for its future. In this conversation, Jay Goldberg and Ben Bajarin discuss Intel's recent financial strategies, particularly focusing on their gross margins and the implications of their decisions. They delve into the cultural challenges within Intel that may affect its future, and explore the dynamics of the mobile technology market, including the performance of companies like MediaTek, Corvo, and Qualcomm.

In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the Qualcomm Snapdragon Summit, highlighting the company's return to custom cores, advancements in AI integration, and innovations in automotive technology. They also delve into the competitive landscape of automotive software, Qualcomm's branding evolution, and the ongoing legal drama with ARM regarding licensing issues. The conversation provides insights into the semiconductor industry and Qualcomm's strategic positioning in the market. In this conversation, Jay Goldberg and Ben Bajarin delve into the complexities of the ongoing contract dispute between ARM and Qualcomm, exploring the broader implications for the tech industry, particularly in terms of intellectual property (IP) litigation. They discuss the necessity for collaboration between major players in the semiconductor space and examine ARM's growth potential in various markets, including data centers and automotive. The conversation also touches on insights from the recent RISC-V Summit, highlighting the current state and future prospects of RISC-V technology in the industry.

In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the recent earnings reports from major semiconductor companies, focusing on ASML's disappointing results and TSMC's optimistic outlook. They explore the cyclical nature of the semiconductor industry, the implications of Intel and AMD's collaboration on x86 architecture, and the competitive pressures from ARM. The conversation highlights the complexities of the market and the challenges faced by these companies in navigating demand and supply dynamics. The conversation delves into the dynamics of Intel's marketing strategies, the significance of the Open Compute Platform Conference, and the emerging trend of nuclear energy in powering data centers. The speakers discuss the implications of these developments on the tech industry, particularly in relation to competition with Nvidia and the evolving landscape of energy solutions.

In this episode of The Circuit, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the recent AMD AI event, focusing on the advancements in CPU architecture, the competitive landscape with NVIDIA, and the importance of vertical integration in AI systems. They explore the role of CPUs in AI workloads, the complexities of total cost of ownership for hyperscalers, and AMD's growth projections in the market. In this conversation, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the dynamics of the AI accelerator market, the performance of AMD's stock in relation to market expectations, the future of inference and compute demands in AI, and the developments in autonomous vehicles. They explore the implications of AI advancements on semiconductor demand, the challenges of scaling autonomous technology, and the evolving landscape of AI capabilities.

In this episode, Ben Bajarin, Jay Goldberg, and Austin Lyons discuss the rapid evolution of AI technology and its implications for hardware and software. They explore the challenges faced by AI accelerators, the role of hyperscalers, and the investment landscape in AI startups. The conversation highlights the disparity between the fast-paced development of AI software and the slower advancements in hardware, particularly in the context of GPUs and dedicated AI accelerators. The speakers also delve into the future of real-time training and inference, emphasizing the need for integrated systems over disaggregated ones.

In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the recent announcements from Meta at MetaConnect, particularly focusing on their new AR glasses concept. They compare Meta's approach to Apple's Vision Pro, exploring the implications of custom silicon, product timing, and the importance of developer ecosystems. The conversation also touches on the role of Google in the AR/VR space, the potential for an open ecosystem, and the excitement surrounding future technologies in this rapidly evolving field.

In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the current state of Intel, focusing on its challenges, board dynamics, and the implications of activist investors. They delve into Intel's foundry strategy, customer relationships, and the significance of the 18A technology. The conversation also touches on Qualcomm's interest in Intel and explores hypothetical merger scenarios, concluding with insights on the future of CPUs in an AI-driven market.

In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the recent advancements in AI software, particularly focusing on OpenAI's new model and its implications for silicon architecture. They explore the challenges of inference costs, the need for silicon innovation, and the competitive landscape involving Nvidia and Google. The conversation highlights the rapid evolution of AI technology and the ongoing race to keep up with software demands.

The conversation covers various topics related to Apple's recent product announcements, including the iPhone, wearables, Apple Silicon, and AI features. The hosts discuss the potential impact of the new iPhone lineup on sales volume and upgrades, as well as the significance of TSMC's involvement in supplying processors. They also highlight the design and features of the Apple Watch and AirPods, emphasizing the attention to detail and user experience. The conversation concludes with a discussion on Apple's investment in healthcare and the role of AI as an enabling technology. The conversation discusses the state of AI applications and the need to shift the focus from AI itself to the features it enables. They also touch on Apple's use of AI and its integration with Google and OpenAI. The conversation explores the challenges of rolling out AI features, particularly in China, and the importance of positive word-of-mouth in driving adoption. They highlight the potential of Genmoji to create FOMO and drive interest in new hardware. The conversation concludes with a discussion on the format of Apple keynotes and the possibility of returning to live events.

In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss NVIDIA's recent earnings and the challenges of managing expectations in the stock market. They touch on the mispronunciation of NVIDIA, the volatility of the stock, and the impact of whisper numbers on investor sentiment. They also discuss the role of NVIDIA's CEO, Jensen Huang, and the difficulty of managing investor relations. The conversation covers topics such as the slowdown in growth, gross margins, and the sustainability of high gross margins in the semiconductor industry. In this conversation, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the reasons why they are not concerned about a bubble popping in the tech industry. They highlight the high demand for NVIDIA's products, the company's superior total cost of ownership (TCO) relative to competitors, and the continued growth of AI and data center infrastructure. They also touch on the potential for NVIDIA to expand its software business. The conversation then shifts to Intel, with the news that the company is exploring strategic options, including spinning off its Foundry division. Ben and Jay discuss the challenges of spinning off Foundry and the potential for a white knight investor to step in and support Intel.

Use code TC24 at wwic24.com

This week Ben and Jay are joined by AMD's EVP of Datacenter Solutions Forrest Norrod. AMD's acquisition of ZT Systems is a strategic move to enhance its position in the data center and AI market. ZT Systems is a leading systems design company focused on hyperscalers, with expertise in customized server and rack designs. By integrating ZT's design capabilities with AMD's silicon and software engineering, AMD aims to create better and more optimized AI server solutions. The acquisition also allows AMD to accelerate time-to-market and support their customers in deploying AI systems faster. AMD plans to divest the manufacturing side of ZT Systems and continue to collaborate with OEM and ODM partners.

In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the tectonic shift happening in the semiconductor industry due to the rise of AI. They highlight the need for substantial improvements in energy-efficient computing performance and the importance of reducing power consumption. The conversation also touches on the role of companies like Applied Materials in driving innovation and advancements in the industry. They discuss Intel's investments in advanced packaging and lithography, as well as the release of their PDK. The episode concludes with a discussion on the breakthrough in high NA EUV technology by Imec.

In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the current state of the stock market and the semiconductor industry. They explore the factors that may be contributing to the recent fluctuations in stock prices and the challenges faced by the semiconductor market. They also delve into the changing dynamics of data center design and the implications for the growth of AI. Additionally, they touch on the automotive semiconductor market and the delays in product releases. Overall, they provide insights into the trends and challenges in the semiconductor industry.

This episode of The Circuit covers the recent earnings reports of semiconductor companies, including AMD, Arm, Qualcomm, and Intel. The hosts discuss the market sentiment, the strength of the data center infrastructure, and the growth potential of these companies. They highlight the cleverness of Arm's business model and the positive trends in their licensing and royalty revenue. They also analyze Qualcomm's performance, noting the anomaly in the automotive market and the misconception of Qualcomm as a PC play. Overall, the hosts provide insights into the semiconductor industry and the factors influencing the market. In this conversation, Jay Goldberg and Ben Bajarin discuss the recent earnings calls of Qualcomm and Intel. They analyze the key takeaways and discuss the challenges and opportunities faced by both companies. The conversation covers topics such as Qualcomm's diversification strategy, the importance of product competitiveness for Intel, and the need for management to execute effectively. They also highlight the significance of process improvement and the potential impact on future performance. Overall, the conversation provides insights into the current state and future prospects of these two tech giants.

In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss their observations and insights from their recent trip to China. They cover topics such as the challenges of semiconductors in China, the economic sentiment in the country, the impact of Huawei's comeback, the state of the semiconductor industry in China, the focus on AI and EVs, the impact of US sanctions, and the future of the industry. They also highlight the impressive technology they saw, such as surveillance cameras and manufacturing systems.

In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the recent earnings reports of NXP and Silicon Labs, as well as the latest updates from TSMC. They analyze the challenges and opportunities in the semiconductor industry, particularly in the areas of automotive, IoT, and AI. They also explore the pricing dynamics and competitive landscape between TSMC and Intel. Overall, the conversation highlights the importance of strategic vision, execution, and market demand in shaping the success of semiconductor companies.

The conversation explores the question of how to monetize the massive investment in AI infrastructure and hardware. There is a mix of pessimism and optimism regarding the potential returns on this investment. The thesis is that AI is currently being used as a feature to improve existing processes, but there is a lack of consumer use cases that can justify the investment. The conversation also touches on the challenges of increasing power consumption and the need for additional power generation. The potential for new and innovative AI applications is discussed, but there is uncertainty about whether these will be able to generate significant revenue.

In this episode of The Circuit, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg are joined by Scott Best to discuss cryptography. They explore the origins of cryptography, including Scott's personal journey and early experiences with decoding secret messages. They also delve into the practical applications of cryptography in everyday life, such as secure web browsing and firmware updates. Scott explains the concept of key size and how it determines the strength of encryption. The conversation concludes with a discussion on the future of cryptography and the potential impact of quantum computers.

Nvidia briefly became the most valuable company in the world by market cap, surpassing Apple. This milestone highlights Nvidia's dominance in the semiconductor industry and its position as a leading company in AI computing. However, there are concerns about the sustainability of Nvidia's growth and the disconnect between its stock performance and the dynamics of the company itself. The platformization of GPUs is a key strategy for Nvidia, but it may not align with the preferences of hyperscalers who are looking for more diverse solutions. The future of the data center market and the demand for AI capabilities remain uncertain.

Apple announced Apple intelligence, integrating AI in a very Apple way. They are focusing on on-device AI to align with their privacy philosophy. The features are only available on the most recent Apple Silicon iPhone pro and newer models. The implementation of AI is focused on useful feature-centric applications rather than general AI. Apple's infrastructure play with their own data centers and Apple Silicon has strategic implications and could potentially lead to them becoming a cloud service provider for developers. The closed-loop environment of security and privacy is a key advantage for Apple. The integration of client to cloud with a common software layer is a powerful trend. Other companies like Arm are also exploring this approach.

Computex has evolved into an important tech trade show, with a focus on gaming, GPUs, and components for gaming and PCs. The show has seen a shift towards data center components and AI servers, which have become a significant category. AMD and Intel are both making chips for AI PCs, with AMD leading in NPU tops. Qualcomm's Snapdragon is ahead in performance, spooking other vendors. The PC landscape has permanently changed, with more competition for Intel. The evaluation of product truth is crucial, as performance and battery life are key factors. In the data center space, AI servers are gaining attention and have higher content per dollar than general-purpose servers. However, market sizing for AI servers is challenging due to varying estimates and counting methods. The conversation explores the market potential for silicon sales to hyperscalers and tier two/tier three cloud service providers. It discusses the growth of the hyperscaler market and the potential for the tier two/tier three market to also grow. The conversation also touches on the challenges faced by new entrants in the market and the dominance of Nvidia in the AI server market. It explores the role of networking components in AI data centers and the margin opportunities for companies in the AI server market. The conversation concludes with a discussion on Arm's CSS service and its expansion into mobile and client markets.

With Special guests, Austin Lyons and Paul Karazuba! 

The conversation covers the topic of NPUs (Neural Processing Units) and delves into their architecture, performance, and relevance in the semiconductor industry. The discussion also addresses the use of tops per watt as a metric for NPU performance and the design origins of NPUs, including the use of licensed IP and the evolution from DSPs to NPUs. The conversation delves into the topic of NPUs (Neural Processing Units) and their integration into various devices. The speakers discuss the origins of NPUs, their design philosophy, and the potential impact on consumer devices. They also explore the role of NPUs in edge devices, AI PCs, and the future of consumer use cases for AI. The conversation concludes with predictions about the widespread adoption of NPUs and their potential impact on the market.

In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the recent Google I/O event and the introduction of new TPUs and CPUs. They also explore the ARM architecture in the data center and the potential for switching between different ARM CPUs. Additionally, they touch on Qualcomm's launch of Windows on ARM and the significant adoption of Qualcomm SKUs by major OEMs. The conversation covers various topics including the dynamics in the PC space, Nvidia's earnings, and the 10-to-1 stock split. The main takeaways include the strong position of Windows in the PC ecosystem, the growth of Nvidia's data center networking business, and the potential impact of a dedicated inference chip. The conversation also discusses the competition in different parts of Nvidia's stack and the volatility that may come with the stock split.

In this episode of The Circuit, Ben Bajarin interviews Esam Elashmawi, Chief Strategy and Marketing Officer of Lattice, about the world of Field-Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs). They discuss the basics of FPGAs, their unique capabilities, and their pervasiveness across various applications. They also explore the advantages of FPGAs over Application-Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs) and the flexibility they offer in terms of customization and reprogramming. Esam highlights the role of FPGAs in different markets, such as communications, computing, industrial, and automotive, and how Lattice differentiates itself in the FPGA market. They also touch on the challenges of building an FPGA company and the potential of FPGAs in AI applications, both in data centers and at the edge.

In this episode of The Circuit, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg interview Aart de Geus, the executive chair and co-founder of Synopsys, about the semiconductor industry and the evolution of electronic design automation (EDA). They discuss the concept of EDA and how it allows designers to simulate and optimize circuits without physically building them. Aart de Geus highlights the shift from analog to digital design as a major inflection point in the industry. He also explains the role of EDA tools in automating the design process and the importance of functional correctness in chip design. The conversation then delves into the future of chip design, including the use of AI in EDA tools, the rise of chiplets and vertical stacking, and the increasing complexity of system-level design.

In this episode of The Circuit, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the latest developments in the semiconductor industry, focusing on the sectors of data centers, PCs, mobile, automotive, and industrial semiconductors. They analyze the performance of companies like Intel, AMD, Nvidia, Apple, Qualcomm, and NXP, and explore the factors influencing their success or challenges. The conversation highlights the impact of AI on the industry, the dynamics of the Chinese market, the potential for a super cycle in PCs, and the outlook for the automotive and industrial semiconductor sectors.

Summary

In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the skyrocketing capex by cloud hyper scalers and its implications. They explore the significant growth in capex spending by companies like Google, Microsoft, and Amazon, and the connection between capex and revenue growth. They also discuss the challenges of monetizing AI investments and the need for clear consumer use cases. The conversation touches on the potential for new innovations in AI wearables, AR glasses, autonomous cars, and robotics. They also consider the deflationary effects on costs and the timeline for the development of AI applications.

Episode Summary

The recent downturn in semiconductor and AI-related stocks has sparked concerns about a bubble. The volatility in these stocks can be attributed to the unpredictability of retail investors and traders. The market is experiencing a correction, but it does not indicate a slowdown in AI. The hype around AI has been tempered by the realization that progress is slower than expected. The energy constraint is a topic of discussion, but improvements in hardware and software will continue to address this issue. The future of AI depends on the balance between compute power and energy efficiency.

This episode of The Circuit discusses the recent trend of companies developing their own custom CPUs and accelerators for AI workloads. Google, Amazon, and Microsoft have all announced their own custom chips, while Facebook and Marvell are also entering the custom chip market. The conversation also touches on the challenges and trade-offs of custom silicon, the impact on NVIDIA, and the difficulty of accurately sizing the AI market. The hosts highlight the uncertainty surrounding the future of AI outsourcing and the potential shift in the fortunes of the semiconductor and cloud industries.

Summary

In this conversation, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the recent Intel webinar on the foundry business and the financial breakout for Intel Foundry Services (IFS). They analyze the financial details, including the higher costs and lower margins than expected, and the potential for improvement in the future. They also discuss the impact of the CHIPS Act and the subsidies received by TSMC for their Arizona foundries. The conversation concludes with a discussion on Intel's progress under CEO Pat Gelsinger and the opportunities and challenges they face in the data center and AI markets.

In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the competition faced by Nvidia in the semiconductor industry. They explore various competitors, including AMD, Intel, and startups like Grok, Etched, and Cerebras. They also delve into the threat posed by custom silicon and the strategies of hyperscalers like Google, Microsoft, Facebook, and Amazon. Overall, the conversation highlights the challenges and opportunities for Nvidia in maintaining its position as a leader in the market. In this conversation, Jay Goldberg and Ben Bajarin discuss various themes related to Nvidia and the AI market. They explore the growing moat of Nvidia and the dominance of CUDA as a software platform. They also discuss the ease of use and stickiness of CUDA, as well as the uncertainty of Nvidia's software adoption. The conversation delves into the market potential and consumer applications of AI, as well as the slow progression of the AI market. They also touch on the risks of AI factories and inventory cycles, the potential slowdown of performance gains, and the regulatory concerns for Nvidia. The conversation concludes with a discussion on the impact of China's market and US sanctions.

Nvidia's recent keynote highlighted their dominance in the data center and their position as a platform company. They offer a full stack solution and are recognized for their sum of the parts story. While some customers may be concerned about getting locked into Nvidia's ecosystem, many appreciate the simplicity and turnkey nature of their offerings. The importance of inference and the transition to generative AI was also discussed, highlighting the complexity of scaling and the need for compute power. However, there may be room for competition in the inference market, particularly in relation to Nvidia's NVLink technology. The conversation covers various topics related to NVIDIA's keynote, including the need for more compute power, the potential of robotics and 6G, the challenges of implementing 6G, the future of software at NVIDIA, and the uncertainty of NVIDIA's software revenue. The conversation also touches on the future of AI software, the computing S-curve, and the longevity of performance gains. Overall, the conversation highlights the excitement and optimism surrounding NVIDIA's advancements in AI and computing.

In this conversation, Ben Bajarin, Jay Goldberg, and Austin Lyons discuss the semiconductor industry and the role of AI accelerators. They cover topics such as the future of Intel, the spectrum of AI accelerators, the dominance of Nvidia in training, the failure of accelerator startups, and the debate between general-purpose and specialized accelerators. They also explore the issue of GPU bloat and the need for alternative solutions in the accelerated computing space. The conversation explores the challenges of porting software to new architectures, the reluctance to switch from Nvidia, the potential for startups to disrupt the AI hardware market, Grok's approach to inference as a service, the need for purpose-built AI architectures, the struggle of custom chip design, and the sustainability of custom chip efforts.

In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the thermal problem faced by data centers and other electronic devices. They are joined by Carl Schlachte, the CEO of Ventiva, a company that provides innovative cooling solutions. The conversation covers the origin story of Ventiva, the challenges faced by the company, and the unique technology they offer. They also discuss the traditional cooling technologies in the market and how Ventiva's approach differs. The episode highlights the importance of rethinking design and the potential benefits of Ventiva's solution in various electronic devices. The conversation explores the impact of video communication and the challenges of designing systems for cooling. It delves into the trade-offs between system functionality and thermal management, as well as the market opportunities for thermal management solutions. The discussion highlights the importance of supporting AI in laptops and the thermal challenges faced by laptop manufacturers. It also examines alternative approaches to thermal management and the potential applications in handsets and large format displays. The conversation concludes by emphasizing the advantages of Ventiva's approach and the significance of thermal management in the industry.

Summary

In this episode of The Circuit, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the infrastructure side of telecom at Mobile World Congress. They highlight the importance of the show for telecom operators and the focus on networking and telecom infrastructure. The conversation covers the current state of 5G deployment and the upcoming transition to 6G. They also discuss the challenges and concerns in upgrading core networks and the potential costs and timing of 6G. The decline of millimeter wave technology and the use of custom silicon in telecom infrastructure are also explored, along with the advantages and disadvantages of custom chipsets. The conversation covers topics such as AI chip infrastructure in the telecom industry, Qualcomm's underwhelming presence at Mobile World Congress, Qualcomm's AI hub and centralized repository for AI models, Qualcomm's initiative to bring 5G to low-cost handsets, the competition between Qualcomm and MediaTek in the AI space, and Apple's update to the MacBook Air and its positioning as an AI platform.

Takeaways

• Mobile World Congress is an important show for telecom operators and focuses on networking and telecom infrastructure.
• The transition to 5G is currently underway, with 6G expected to be discussed and developed in the coming years.
• Upgrading core networks and improving network efficiency are ongoing challenges for telecom operators.
• The decline of millimeter wave technology and the use of custom silicon in telecom infrastructure are notable trends. AI chip infrastructure is not yet a priority in the telecom industry.
• Qualcomm's presence at Mobile World Congress was underwhelming.
• Qualcomm's AI hub provides a centralized repository for AI models.
• Qualcomm's initiative to bring 5G to low-cost handsets may face challenges in competing with MediaTek.
• The tension between premium and low-cost devices in the smartphone market continues.
• Apple is positioning the MacBook Air as an AI platform.

Summary

This episode of The Circuit discusses the recent Intel Foundry event and Nvidia's earnings. The conversation explores Intel's focus on becoming a leading foundry and its bet on advanced packaging. The hosts also discuss concerns about Intel's culture and execution, as well as the response from TSMC. The episode concludes with predictions about the future of the market and the role of Intel in the industry. In this conversation, Jay Goldberg and Ben Bajarin discuss the future of TSMC and Apple, Intel's commitment to Apple and chiplets, the push towards chiplets in PCs, Intel's relationship with TSMC, NVIDIA's clean quarter, retail interest in NVIDIA stock, the investor relations dilemma for NVIDIA, NVIDIA's product cadence and long-term expectations, and the inference market and competition.

Takeaways

• Intel is positioning itself as a leading foundry for complex systems of chips in the AI era.
• The success of Intel's foundry strategy will depend on its ability to deliver on technical innovation and overcome cultural challenges.
• TSMC remains a strong competitor in the market and has credibility in technical innovation.
• The customer dynamics and relationships with major wafer scale customers will play a crucial role in Intel's success as a foundry.
• The future of the market will likely involve a shift towards advanced packaging and chiplet designs. TSMC's future success depends on targeting a big volume platform like IFS in 2027.
• Intel's commitment to Apple may hinder their adoption and advancement of chiplets.
• PC CPU makers are under pressure to move towards chiplets, which may influence Apple's architecture decisions.
• NVIDIA's clean quarter and moderate beat and raise had a fairly moderate reaction in the stock market.
• NVIDIA's stock is heavily influenced by retail investors, which can lead to unpredictable swings.
• NVIDIA's product cadence and performance improvements, as well as supply chain constraints, are concerns for meeting revenue expectations.
• NVIDIA's long-term expectations and communication about the total addressable market may create heightened investor expectations.
• The inference market is still in early days, and competition is increasing.
• NVIDIA's software ties and workload advantage may give them an edge in the inference market.

Summary

In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the puzzle of Intel foundries and the challenges of determining their revenue. They explore historical economics data points and the exit zone for leading-edge fabs. They analyze the revenue and financial projections for Intel Foundry Services (IFS) and the need for external customers. They also discuss the long-term outlook for IFS and potential scenarios for the future, including strategic partnerships and acquisitions. The episode concludes with the understanding that IFS will require a long-term timeframe and significant investment to become a competitive foundry.

Takeaways

• Determining the revenue of Intel foundries is a challenging puzzle due to the lack of access to data and cost information.
• Historical economics data points provide insights into the exit zone for leading-edge fabs and the challenges faced by companies in staying competitive.
• IFS revenue projections indicate the need for external customers to fund the investment in leading-edge fabs.
• The long-term outlook for IFS suggests that it will take time and significant investment to become a competitive foundry.
• Strategic partnerships and acquisitions may play a role in the future of IFS and the semiconductor industry.

Summary

The conversation discusses Sam Altman's plan to raise $7 trillion for semiconductors and the potential challenges and motivations behind it. It explores the idea of negotiation and leaked stories as part of the process. The conversation also delves into the simultaneous demand for compute in both hardware and software industries and the need for breakthroughs in technology. It highlights the importance of economic efficiency and competitiveness in the semiconductor industry. The conversation concludes by mentioning upcoming events and guests.

Takeaways

• Sam Altman's plan to raise $7 trillion for semiconductors has sparked discussions about the challenges and motivations behind such a massive fundraising effort.
• Negotiation and leaked stories may be part of the process as companies navigate the complexities of the semiconductor industry.
• The simultaneous demand for compute in both hardware and software industries is creating constraints and slowing down innovation.
• Economic efficiency and competitiveness are crucial factors in the semiconductor industry, and companies need to balance supply and demand.
• The industry may benefit from breakthroughs in technology and the commercialization of new processes and products.

Summary

In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the outsized expectations for AI growth and the impact on stock market reactions. They explore the challenges of modeling AI growth and the difficulty of charging more for AI features. They also discuss the potential for AI to accelerate refreshment cycles and the importance of realistic expectations. The conversation highlights the small gains of AI in software and the experimentation stage of AI. They conclude by emphasizing the need to measure expectations and be reasonable in the AI industry.

Takeaways

• Outsized AI expectations have led to negative stock market reactions, as companies have not met ambitious growth models.
• Modeling AI growth is challenging due to variables such as product availability and demand.
• Charging more for AI features is difficult, as customers may not be willing to pay a premium.
• AI may not accelerate refreshment cycles, as the average consumer may not see significant improvements that warrant more frequent upgrades.
• The gains from AI are often small and incremental, but still important in improving efficiency and productivity.

Summary

In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss Intel's recent earnings call and the challenges the company is facing. They analyze the guidance provided by Intel and the concerns raised by investors. The conversation also delves into Intel's core businesses, including the consumer and data center groups, and the impact of competition from companies like Nvidia. The hosts explore Intel's partnership with UMC to increase trailing edge capacity and the potential for specialized trailing edge processes. They conclude by highlighting the need for Intel to prove itself in the coming quarters and address ongoing challenges.

Takeaways

• Intel's Q4 earnings call and guidance were a source of concern for investors, leading to a sell-off.
• The company's core businesses, particularly the data center group, face challenges and increased competition.
• Intel's partnership with UMC to increase trailing edge capacity signals a focus on specialized processes.
• The company needs to prove itself in the coming quarters and address ongoing challenges to regain investor confidence.

Summary

In this conversation, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the latest news and trends in the semiconductor industry, with a focus on TSMC's strong earnings and growth forecast. They explore the importance of AI in TSMC's business and the strong position of NVIDIA in the AI market. They also discuss the challenges of designing AI-first silicon and the need for differentiation in AI accelerators. The conversation touches on the dynamics of leading-edge manufacturing, the transition from financial objectives to innovation in semiconductors, and the significance of Supermicro's pre-announcement. They conclude by emphasizing the importance of delivering on promises and providing predictable guidance in the industry.

Takeaways

• TSMC's strong earnings and growth forecast indicate a healthy year for the semiconductor industry, driven by demand for AI and leading-edge manufacturing.
• NVIDIA is well-positioned in the AI market, with strong engagement from AI leaders and a focus on AI-specific processors.
• The challenges of designing AI-first silicon and the lack of re-architecting for AI in most designs highlight the need for innovation in the industry.
• The transition from financial objectives to innovation and R&D is crucial for semiconductor companies to stay competitive.
• The temptation to talk about AI without substance and the importance of delivering on promises and providing predictable guidance are key considerations for companies in the industry.

Summary

In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss their experience at CES and the presence of AI in various products. They explore the evolution of massage chairs and the AI wash in the industry. They also analyze the two tracks of AI at CES, with a more muted presence in big vendor booths and a greater focus in Eureka Park. The conversation delves into the role of AI in semiconductor vendors and the importance of on-device AI. They discuss the balance between cloud and edge AI and the outlook for semiconductors in 2024. They also touch on the revival of VR and AR and the potential for exciting developments in the future.

Takeaways

CES featured a more muted presence of AI compared to previous years, with a focus on specific use cases rather than generative AI.
The massage chair industry has seen advancements in AI sensing and 5D rollers, but there is still an AI wash in the labeling of products.
Semiconductor vendors are re-examining their roadmaps to incorporate more on-device AI, recognizing the need for advanced sensor fusion and compute at the edge. The balance between cloud and edge AI is becoming more symbiotic, with a recognition that both are necessary for a comprehensive AI strategy. The outlook for semiconductors in 2024 is mixed, with a cyclically good year expected but uncertainty about significant advancements in consumer-facing AI.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction and CES Experience
01:09 The Fascination with Massage Chairs
05:02 The Muted Presence of AI at CES
26:06 The Compute Happening at the Edge
27:29 The Outlook for Semiconductors in 2024

Summary

In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss their hopes and predictions for the semiconductor industry in 2024. They cover topics such as the need for clarity of direction in automotive semis, the potential for partnerships and spin-offs in the industry, the importance of venture funding for semiconductor startups, the need for a more balanced and realistic narrative around AI, and the challenges and tensions between the US and China in the chip industry. They also make some speculative predictions about potential acquisitions and consolidation in the industry.

Takeaways

• The automotive semiconductor industry needs more clarity of direction to understand where it is headed.
• Partnerships and spin-offs could be a productive way for semiconductor companies to work together and fill gaps in their offerings.
• There is a need for more venture funding for semiconductor startups, as the industry is capital-intensive and often overlooked by investors.
• The narrative around AI needs to change to avoid overhyping and misunderstanding the technology.
• Reducing tensions between the US and China in the chip industry would benefit both countries and the global semiconductor ecosystem.

Summary

In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss recent semiconductor events, including Marvell's analyst day, AMD's Advancing AI event, and Intel's AI Everywhere event. They analyze the key takeaways from each event, including Marvell's focus on data infrastructure, AMD's new chiplet SOC and AI capabilities, and Intel's architectural advancements in client and data center products. The hosts also discuss the challenges and opportunities in the AI PC market and share their holiday wishes.

Takeaways

• Marvell is a data infrastructure company with strong product roadmaps and a focus on the data center.
• AMD's new chiplet SOC, Meteor Lake, represents a significant architectural advancement and could be a game-changer for the company.
• Intel's AI Everywhere event showcased their advancements in client and data center products, including chiplet-based SOCs and AI integration.
• The AI PC market presents challenges in terms of consumer adoption and pricing, but has potential for growth in enterprise and cloud applications.

Summary

In this conversation Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg have a discussion with Rene Haas, President of ARM, provides an overview of the company and its role as the brain that powers electronic devices. He explains ARM's business model of designing CPUs and licensing them to chip manufacturers. Haas discusses the value capture and increasing ARM's share of the value in the market. He highlights the growth drivers for ARM in various industries, including PCs, cloud data centers, networking, automotive, and IoT. Haas also addresses the impact of US sanctions on China and ARM's success in the Chinese market. He concludes by discussing ARM's partnership with Intel Foundry Services and the potential for chiplets.

Takeaways

• ARM is the brain that powers electronic devices and is present in a wide range of products, including cell phones, laptops, automobiles, data centers, and IoT devices.
• ARM's business model involves designing CPUs and licensing them to chip manufacturers, allowing them to build chips with ARM's designs.
• To increase its share of the value in the market, ARM is focusing on delivering full solutions, accelerating chip design, and developing new products for growing markets.
• ARM sees opportunities for growth in industries such as PCs, cloud data centers, networking, automotive, and IoT, driven by trends like AI and the need for more compute power.
• ARM is navigating US sanctions on China by complying with export control restrictions and focusing on areas where its software ecosystem and partnerships are strong.

The conversation explores the current state of the Japanese semiconductor industry and its history of decline in the 1990s. It discusses the structure of the industry, key players, and recent developments such as the establishment of Rapidus, a consortium aimed at advancing semiconductor fabrication in Japan. The conversation also touches on the visit of Japan's Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry to UC Berkeley and the potential for collaboration between the US and Japan in the semiconductor industry. Overall, the discussion highlights the renewed interest and efforts in revitalizing the Japanese semiconductor industry.

• The Japanese semiconductor industry experienced a decline in the 1990s but is now showing signs of revitalization.
• Key players in the Japanese semiconductor industry include Tokyo Electron, Renesas, Sony, and Morata.
• The establishment of Rapidus, a consortium for semiconductor fabrication, demonstrates Japan's commitment to advancing its semiconductor capabilities.
• Collaboration between the US and Japan in the semiconductor industry is becoming increasingly important.

In this week's episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg chatted about companies pushing the limits of what is possible with technology and breaking new ground with new products and experiences.  They discuss the impacts this has on the semiconductor landscape and why its a necessary, even if awkward, step to progress.

Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg dive into the recent announcements from Microsoft around their new custom silicon chips. They also discuss MediaTek's ambitions, shared from the MediaTek executive summit last week, where they are doubling down on helping people build custom silicon for the data center.  

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Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg welcome guest Steven Woo, a Fellow at Rambus, to discuss the wide world of memory.  The discussion covers how memory differs from logic, the many types of memory and their purpose and function, how to gauge innovation in memory advances, and the key applications driving the need to innovate more in memory.  

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- Intel's products and product roadmap competitiveness 
- Read on What Public Investors took away
- Intel's Foundry Opportunity and Timing 

In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss a myriad of subjects from recent news in the semi-industry. Main topics:

• Apple A17 Pro
• Arm IPO
• Huawei Kirin 9000
• China's Ambitions and the intent of sanctions

On this week's episode of The Circuit, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg are joined by Stacey Higginbotham to discuss the land of IoT. They cover everything from market segments, use cases, the unified software dream, key companies in silicon, and more. 

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Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the Arm F1 takeaways, challenges, and IPO upside.

Show note links:
Register Report on Graviton Revenue

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Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss Jay's recent article and flesh out a thesis related to AI's impact on different segments of the semiconductor industry. 

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Jay Goldberg continues his series of Back to Basics with some history and anecdotes of wireless standards.   

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In this episode, we pilot a new series called Back to Basics. Sharing stories and anecdotes around key companies in the semiconductor industry. 

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Link to Jay's article for relevant reading.  Enterprise Electronics | Digits to Dollars

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Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss a report that Arm is looking to shift their business model in a way that provides greater financial upside for the company.  As a result, Ben and Jay explore the broader nuance of licensing IP as a business model and the opportunities for IP transfer and enablement going forward. 

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Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss how semiconductor investors, on the sell and buy side, often think about semiconductor industry stocks and why companies' investor relations strategies struggle to land messages with a broad set of investors. 

Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss silicon highlights from mobile world congress. 

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Patrick McGee's column on Apple's tying its future to China. 

Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg introduce The Circuit and discuss why a dedicated podcast about the business and industry of semiconductors is needed and relevant.