Tips for Identifying Tech Trends

For more than 10 years we’re interviewed the people that changed the tech world. What are some tips and tricks to identify which trends emerge, survive and fail? 

SHOW: 522

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SHOW NOTES:

• 2020 Year in Review
• 2019 Year in Review
• 2018 Year in Review
• 2017 Year in Review
• 2016 Year in Review

IDENTIFYING TRENDS TO HIGHLIGHT ON THE PODCAST

1. 522 shows, 57 companies acquired, $4.9B in VC funding, $58B in Acquisitions/IPOs
2. Track Record of Founding Team, Macro Trends, Societal Trends

VC TRENDS vs. TECHNOLOGY TRENDS vs. CUSTOMER BUYING TRENDS

1. There is a very long lifecycle between university research vs. early VC investments vs. early technology trends vs. customer buying trends. Often 10-20 years.
2. Gracely’s Theorem: “There are very few truly new ideas, rather there are mostly advancements because of improved CPUs and Networking speeds.”
3. The Platform vs. Feature test: A baseline platform or higher-level platform? 
4. The Bed, Bath & Beyond test: Is it more than 50% cheaper than previous generations?
5. The Friction test: Does it remove significant barriers to previous generations?
6. The Don’t Fight a Land War in Asia test: Is it trying to be too many things to too many people?
7. The Follow-the-Money test: How do companies around this technology make money? Does the ecosystem make money? Are there adjacent paths to monetization?
8. The Culture Change test: People don’t like change, especially for change’s sake. Changing culture is one of the hardest things to do at most companies. 
9. The Re-Education test: How much of a learning curve is required to make this technology successful? 

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