High Country Politics - Government and Elections News from the American West - April 19, 2023

Lauren Boebert’s Q1 fundraising falls far short of Democrat Adam Frisch | Arizona GOP Senate primary shows Kari Lake with wide lead - Blake Masters is at the back of the pack | Colorado Gov Jared Polis attempts to lower housing costs with statewide land use reforms

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Alright! Let’s get into it: 

COLORADO NEWSLINE: Frisch with cash

BY: CHASE WOODRUFF - APRIL 17, 2023 4:35 PM

Republican U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert has consistently ranked as one of Colorado’s top congressional fundraisers since her election in 2020, raking in small-dollar contributions from a national network of grassroots conservative donors.

But in her bid to win a third term next year, she may have to overcome an even stronger fundraising effort by her likely Democratic challenger.

Adam Frisch, a former Aspen City Council member who lost to Boebert by just 546 votes in the 2022 election, raised more than $1.7 million in the first quarter of 2023 — more than double the amount Boebert raised in the same period, according to Federal Election Commission disclosures.

Frisch said in a statement, “I am honored to be receiving the support of so many hardworking Colorado families,” “Boebert’s fundraising numbers reaffirm that her days in Congress are numbered because she continues to ignore the needs of her district, and instead prioritizes being a leader of the anger-tainment industry.”

If Boebert continues to trail Frisch in fundraising, it would be the first time the far-right representative has been at a financial disadvantage since her successful 2020 primary challenge against five-term GOP Rep. Scott Tipton. Boebert unseated Tipton despite raising just $133,256 to nearly $1 Million raised by Tipton in the first half of 2020.

In her bid for reelection last year, Boebert raised nearly $8 million - by far the highest total of any of Colorado’s U.S. House candidates. 

Frisch, who narrowly won a three-way Democratic primary with 42% of the vote, raised $4.4 million from donors, and supplemented that with over $2.2 million in personal loans to his campaign.

Boebert was widely projected to win reelection by a comfortable margin in 2022, and neither Republicans nor Democrats spent heavily through super PACs to influence the 3rd District race. But after Frisch’s unexpectedly strong performance in a race that triggered Colorado’s first congressional recount in 20 years, the stage is set for a blockbuster rematch in 2024.

Earlier this month, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee included the 3rd District, which encompasses most of Colorado’s Western Slope as well as Pueblo County, on its list of 2024 targets. A poll released by a progressive group last week showed Frisch and Boebert tied at 45% support among likely voters.

In what promises to be an unusually high-profile congressional race, both Boebert and Frisch continue to rely on contributions from out-of-state donors. About 63% of Boebert’s itemized donations in the first quarter came from contributors outside of Colorado; for Frisch, the figure was 57%.

In other U.S. House districts, Democratic Rep. Yadira Caraveo of Thornton, who narrowly defeated Republican state Sen. Barbara Kirkmeyer as the first representative of Colorado’s new 8th District last year, reported raising $339,307 so far for 2024. 

Democratic Rep. Brittany Pettersen of Arvada, who won the race to succeed longtime former Rep. Ed Perlmutter in Colorado’s 7th district, reporting raising $218,108. 

THE HILL: Kari Lake holds wide lead in new AZ GOP Senate primary poll

BY CAROLINE VAKIL - 04/17/23 12:58 PM ET

A poll released by J. L. Partners and shared with The Hill on Monday found former gubernatorial candidate and incessant Trump acolyte Kari Lake receiving 38 percent support among registered Republican and undeclared voters. Lake was followed next by the primary opponent she bested in last year’s Republican gubernatorial primary - Karrin Robson - who came in with just 10 percent support.

Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb was third at 8 percent, followed by former Arizona Senate candidate Blake Masters with 7 percent, and former state Attorney General candidate Abe Hamadeh with 4 percent. 29 percent said they’re undecided.

One GOP strategist who requested anonymity to speak candidly said, “If Kari Lake decides to run, it’s clear she is not only the front-runner but will run away with the nomination. The GOP establishment would be smart to get behind her right away so we can win Arizona.”

The polling comes as Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) has not yet formally announced whether she will run for reelection, though The Wall Street Journal reported earlier this month that she’s gearing up for another run.

Democratic Congressman Ruben Gallego has announced a run on the Democratic side, reporting a fundraising haul of $3.7 Million in this year’s first quarter - about 75% more than Sen. Sinema’s $2.1 Million.

The GOP poll found Donald Trump leading Ron DeSantis in Arizona’s presidential primary by more than 20 points. 

CPR NEWS:

Gov. Jared Polis thinks density is the magic bullet for high housing costs. Is he right?

By Nathaniel Minor

· Mar. 31, 2023, 4:00 am

In the nearly hour-long press conference unveiling his sweeping land-use reform bill, Gov. Jared Polis and other supporters used the word “affordable” more than three dozen times. 

Polis and others promised the bill would lower housing costs around the state by cutting local regulations and allowing developers to build more townhomes and multiplexes in areas currently restricted to single-family homes only.

The claim that more building will lead to cheaper rents and lower home prices is explicitly made throughout the 105-page bill as well. 

But is it true? And how did sprawl get so unaffordable anyway? CPR News read through research papers and spoke with academics to try to answer those questions.

First: Local governments in Colorado have long preferred single-family homes.

In the early 1900’s, The federal government and localities like Denver began to embrace zoning to create a “better arranged, more orderly city” — and protect property values — by explicitly separating residential areas from industrial and commercial development.

Denver’s first zoning code, adopted in 1925, codified the city’s preference for single-family homes by making them the only type of housing allowed in most residential areas. 

A 1929 city plan called Denver “a city of one-family homes,” and warned of the density of East Coast cities like New York, which was “throttling itself to death.” 

Colorado planners laid out “dream cities” like Broomfield with meandering streets that conformed to the natural landscape and offered mountain vistas. 

But by the 1970s, the price of this type of growth was becoming clear. A landmark 1974 federally sponsored study called “The Cost of Sprawl” found the land, pavement, and utilities needed for suburbs and exurbs made them the “most expensive form of residential development.” 

But in spite of its cost, local governments in the Denver region have continued to embrace sprawl. By 2021, about 80 percent of land zoned for residences only allowed single-family homes according to research led by Carrie Makarewicz, associate professor and chair of the University of Colorado Denver’s urban and regional planning department. 

Research shows that middle-type housing — two- to nine-unit residences, roughly similar to what the new bill would allow — accounted for just 2.2 percent of housing permits issued between 2005 and 2020 in the Denver metro. 

Multifamily housing also tends to be cheaper than single-family homes in the same community, because they are often smaller, and they make more efficient use of costly land and existing infrastructure, 

Every Denver metro county has a shortage of small homes, and an excess supply of large homes, in relation to each county’s demographics.

So will more housing units and higher density help? 

The new bill would force many local governments in Colorado to allow multifamily housing — from townhomes to multiplexes up to six units — and accessory dwelling units (often called “mother-in-law suites") in all residential zones.

The Colorado Municipal League, which represents many of the state’s cities and opposes the bill, said the idea that more housing will cause a market-based decline in housing costs, is speculative. 

But research suggests there’s a direct connection between the two. A 2018 review of studies from the New York University Furman Center said “there is a considerable body of empirical research showing that less restrictive land use regulation is associated with lower housing prices.” 

One study, for example, in Massachusetts found that increases in minimum lot sizes - a precursor to more sprawling development - were followed by significant price increases. 

Another, using data from 100 cities in Florida, found that putting in more restrictive development regulations decreased land prices, but increased home prices. One study directly linked restrictive local land use regulations to an increase in rates of homelessness. 

A 2021 UCLA research review found strong evidence that building new market-rate apartments slows down rent increases for nearby existing housing- helping to keep neighborhoods more affordable.

Emily Hamilton, senior research fellow at George Mason University cited that cities like Houston, TX - with less restrictive rules on housing tend to be cheaper.

“They’re making small-lot single-family construction possible on a scale not seen anywhere else in the country. And, they permit tons of multi-family housing,” Hamilton said.

Welp, that’s it for me! From Denver I’m Sean Diller. Original reporting for the stories in today’s show comes from the CPR News, The Hill, Associated Press, and Colorado Newsline

Thank you for listening! See you next time.

Host: Adam Sommer 

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