Talkin' Politics | Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics; Record Oil Profits During Crisis; 2022 Early Voting Advantage for Dems?; Paul Pelosi Attack and Ratcheted Up Political Rhetoric

Heartland POD on Twitter - @TheHeartlandPOD 

Co-Hosts
Adam Sommer @Adam_Sommer85

Rachel Parker @RaichetP

Sean Diller @SeanDillerCO

1. Lies, Damn Lies, & Statistics   - Single polls - and data reliance: Is Sharice Davids really up 14 points? 
   1. https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article267967122.html?ac_cid=DM717884&ac_bid=1222525714
   2. fivethirty eight 80/20 in favor of Davids
      1. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/house/kansas/3/
   3. Why don’t outlier polls share info on cross tabs and sampling? 

1. Yeah… NO 
   1. Exxon mobile exec says that they have been returning profits to the people because they payed out a dividend 
   2. Exxon made a $20 B profit in Q3, Shell 9.5 billion, Chevron 11.2 BILLION
   3. Record setting profits amid inflation issues
   4. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-28/exxon-cites-dividend-in-response-to-biden-attack-on-oil-profits?sref=ZOgFhNqs#xj4y7vzkg
   5. Record profits: https://thehill.com/policy/3709759-oil-companies-rake-in-huge-profits-amid-consumer-squeeze/
   6. 
       
2. Buy or Sell
   1. Voters on the left will treat 2022 differently than 2016 & 2018
   2. Early voting seems to be way up 
      1. https://twitter.com/simonwdc/status/1586744022789505026?s=46&t=8JfsL2uvjtueWoJ8mF49qw
         1. Is early voting jump just due to carryover from Covid changes? Does it mean something more?
      2. https://www.salon.com/2022/10/25/norman-say-no-to-fascism/
      3. 2016 breakdowns were fairly normal, statistically speaking - if turnout is not accounted for
         1. https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2018/08/09/an-examination-of-the-2016-electorate-based-on-validated-voters/
      4. Enthusiasm gap?
         1. 10% of Bernie supporters voted for Trump
            1. https://www.npr.org/2017/08/24/545812242/1-in-10-sanders-primary-voters-ended-up-supporting-trump-survey-finds
         2. Is that group enough to swing 2022?
3. The Big One 
   1. Paul Pelosi attacked
      1. GOP has spent a decade creating a fictitious villain out of Nancy Pelosi
      2. Treating politics as a battle of culture creates greater animosity
      3. https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/30/rnc-chair-gop-rhetoric-pelosi-assault-00064129
      4. https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/29/pelosis-gop-campaign-ad-villain-violent-home-invasion-00064112
      5. Elon helped push some bull shit reporting too 
         1. https://twitter.com/oneunderscore__/status/1586799992978776065?s=46&t=8JfsL2uvjtueWoJ8mF49qw
      6. NY times article https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1586781288660623360?s=46&t=8JfsL2uvjtueWoJ8mF49qw
      7. Rachel reminder: the reason it’s easy to hate on Nancy is because she is the most widely recognizable and successful house speaker since Tip O’Neil (and that guy was on Cheers ffs, and part of where the “coastal liberal elite” myth); kind of shocking the party of “grooming” NEEEEVVVVEER ever brings up Denny Hastert (how long was that sentence for criminal sexual assault again?)

Host: Adam Sommer 

Find Adam on tik-tok and bluesky as "midmapdadenergy" - follow The Process on instagram. 

JOIN PATREON FOR MORE 

“Change The Conversation”

Outro Song: “The World Is On Fire” by American Aquarium 

http://www.americanaquarium.com/

Nothing on this channel is to be taken as legal advice for any jurisdiction. All statements are opinions that reflect on that of the speaker and the purpose of the show is to provide space for discussion that may include statements or opinions shared only for the purpose of discussion.