Currents 057: Timothy Clancy on Russia’s Mid-Game

Continuing his series of expert interviews on the Russia-Ukraine War, Jim talks with Timothy Clancy about forecasting the conflict through mid-May... Continuing his series of expert interviews on the Russia-Ukraine War, Jim talks with Timothy Clancy about forecasting the conflict through mid-May. They discuss five likely mid-game scenarios, Ukraine as a Go board, how urban combat has changed in the 21st century, the "belt" strategy, Grozny Rules, creating feral cities, Putin's unknown "maximum acceptable atrocity" limit, the danger of extreme swings in analysis, a quicksand strategy for Ukraine & why it could be good for the West, Ukraine as a risk to Putin's control of Russia, how Putin has provided a common point of unification for Ukraine & NATO, simulation factors for Ukrainian insurgency, overwhelming violence's galvanizing effects, the Goode ratio, limited usefulness of the historical record & unpredictability of new tech, the right level of international friction to avoid going up the escalation ladder, and much more. Episode Transcript JRS Currents 055: Paul Goble on Putin’s Strategic Mistakes JRS Currents 054: Samo Burja on the Russia-Ukraine War JRS Currents 052: John Robb on War in Ukraine InfoMullet (blog) InfoMullet (Twitter) Dialectic Simulations Timothy Clancy has an MSc from WPI in Insurgency Dynamics & Simulation Science. As a Ph.D. candidate, he is preparing to defend his dissertation on the life-cycle of violence and instability of non-state actors as a complex system of studied simulations. His published research includes a simulation model of ISIS in Syria and Iraq and another of violent radicalization leading to terrorism as a social contagion. Timothy runs a blog, InfoMullet.com or @InfoMullet on Twitter or Facebook, that provides more context for complex current events. Through the InfoMullet he’s tracked regional conflicts relevant to the current Russian invasion as far back as the Second Chechnyan war through Georgia, Syria, Libya, and most recently Armenia v. Azerbaijan. He also provides focused coverage on uprisings and non-state actor conflict including EuroMaidan protest movements which 8 years ago this February led to the collapse of the Yanukovych regime, Russian annexation of Crimea, and the start of the Russo-Ukrainian war in 2014. His consulting firm Dialectic Simulations Consulting helps clients ranging from Fortune 1000 to government agencies and military commands solve some of their toughest problems with simulations.