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The Logic of Risk

LOR10: Fighting the hydra of frequentism, or why subjectivism is preferable

15 min • 8 mars 2025
In this episode, we delve into subjective probability by drawing on Bruno de Finetti’s ideas. We show how viewing probability as a fair bet may lead to coherent estimates. We discuss how de Finetti challenges the circular and limiting nature of the classical and frequentist definitions, arguing that personal judgment, informed by data, experts, and even intuition, is key.
We also covers advanced ideas like Jeffrey's radical probabilism, ultimately emphasizing the need for continuous learning and humility in decision-making. 
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