The Macro Brief by HSBC Global Research

With Europe’s economy having lagged the US’s for decades, Simon Wells, Chief European Economist, explains why there are reasons to be more optimistic over the longer term.

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Fresh from attending the IMF-World Bank annual meetings, Janet Henry, Fred Neumann, Paul Mackel and Murat Ulgen discuss the key questions facing the global economy, China, currencies, and emerging markets.

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James Rydge, Head of ESG Research in EMEA, gives an insight into his discussions with UK companies about how they are trying to achieve their climate and sustainable growth ambitions.

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With oil markets caught between long-term market imbalances and political risks, Kim Fustier and Simon Williams examine the outlook for prices, and what it could mean for the economies of the Middle East.

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James Steel, Chief Precious Metals Analyst, puts gold’s surge to record price levels in a historical context and considers whether the rally is likely to continue.

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Murat Ulgen, Global Head of Emerging Markets Research, considers the impact of Fed rate cuts and China’s stimulus package on EM assets and outlines the results of our latest survey of emerging market investors.

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Piers Butler is joined by Global Chief Economist Janet Henry for a catch-up on the world's top macro talking points as we enter the final quarter of the year.

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We look at what the Federal Reserve’s 50 basis point rate cut could mean for the path of future rates, the US economy and global equity markets with Ryan Wang, US Economist, and Alastair Pinder, Head Emerging Markets and Global Equity Strategist.

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We catch up with Fabio Balboni, Senior European Economist, to discuss the latest ECB rate cut and the prospects for further policy easing.

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With investors' attention turning towards the global major central banks, we assess potential Federal Reserve, ECB and Bank of England tightening cycles with Ryan Wang, US Economist, and Chris Hare, Senior European Economist.

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We examine what caused this week’s market volatility, ask whether we are through the worst, and take a cross-asset look at where we go from here.

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We catch up with our ESG team to look at some of the less obvious places where sustainability issues could arise - from beer to music festivals.

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Murat Ulgen, Global Head of Emerging Markets Research, examines whether investors are right to be upbeat on the prospects for EM risk assets.

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Steven Major, Global Head of Fixed Income Research, explains how both cyclical and secular forces contribute to the outlook for the bond market.

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James Rydge, Head of ESG Research, EMEA, assesses the rise of physical climate impacts across the G20 countries and whether they are prepared for the transition.

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Janet Henry, Global Chief Economist, assesses whether the world economy can keep dodging the dangers in the second half of the year.

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We catch up with Paul Mackel, Global Head of FX Research, to find out how the latest financial and political developments are affecting the major currencies.

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European economists Simon Wells and Chantana Sam discuss new risks from election results in Europe and upcoming votes in France.

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With the ECB cutting rates before the Fed for the first time in history, Fabio Balboni, Senior European Economist, and Ryan Wang, US Economist, assess the diverging paths of the two major central banks.

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James Pomeroy, Global Economist, discusses the likely impact of artificial intelligence - including what it could mean for productivity, jobs, and emerging markets.

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With a general election now set for 4 July, Simon Wells, Chief European Economist, assesses the key challenges facing the incoming government.

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Kim Fustier, Head of European Oil & Gas Research, explains why there has been a striking shift in the region’s gas markets.

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With gold prices recently hitting new highs, James Steel, Chief Precious Metals Analyst, looks at the unusual reasons behind the rally and whether it will last.

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Mark McDonald, Head of Data Science and Analytics at HSBC, outlines the findings from HSBC's inaugural Funding the Future Survey, which provides insights into investors’ views on venture capital, private equity, and high-growth sectors.

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In this edition, Shanella Rajanayagam, Trade Economist, weighs up the risks around US trade tensions depending on who wins the presidential race.

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In this edition, Amy Tyler and Sean McLoughlin talk about their research into the global cooling market and why the boom in artificial intelligence may complicate efforts to bring down CO2 emissions.

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China and Artificial intelligence were among the themes dominating this year’s inaugural event in Hong Kong. Jing Liu, Chief Economist for Greater China, and Mark McDonald, Head of Data Science and Analytics, discuss.

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Chris Hare, Senior European Economist, assesses the region’s prospects with inflation close to target and policymakers on the brink of cutting rates.

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With the major central banks poised to begin their rate cutting cycles, we assess the outlook for the world economy with Janet Henry, Global Chief Economist.

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Shanella Rajanayagam, Trade Economist, looks at how supply chains are reconfiguring globally and assesses the extent to which countries are moving production closer to home.

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With urban populations set to rise dramatically over the next decade, James Pomeroy, Global Economist, looks at what cities need to do to unlock their economic potential.

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Simon Wells, Chief European Economist, assesses the state of the UK’s public finances following this week’s highly anticipated budget.

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We look at whether artificial intelligence can outperform human analysis of big data, what it might bring to the field of weather forecasting, and what policymakers are doing to regulate this rapidly developing technology. We're joined by Mark McDonald, Head of Data Science and Analytics, Yaryna Kobel, Corporate Governance Analyst, and Amy Tyler, ESG Analyst.

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With November’s elections looming, we assess the state of play, key policy issues and implications for the Federal Reserve and the US dollar with Ryan Wang, US Economist, and Daragh Maher, Head of FX Strategy, US.

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Chris Hare, Senior European Economist, looks at why productivity in the UK and eurozone has lagged behind the US – and what can be done to address it.

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James Pomeroy, Global Economist, looks at how declining birth rates around the world are creating tough challenges for governments and economies.

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We assess the potential path of monetary policy on both sides of the Atlantic with Ryan Wang, US Economist, and Liz Martins, Senior UK Economist.

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With investors hoping for substantial interest rate cuts in 2024, Stephen King, Senior Economic Adviser, examines the dangers of premature monetary easing.

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Mark McDonald, Head of Data Science and Analytics, looks at the sectors that are catching the eye of venture capital investors and the latest developments in artificial intelligence.

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Shanella Rajanayagam, Trade Economist, considers whether a recovery is in sight for global trade in 2024 - and discusses the key risks to watch.

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Janet Henry, Global Chief Economist, assesses the complicated backdrop facing policymakers as they attempt to keep inflation on a steady downward trajectory.

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Murat Ulgen, Global Head of Emerging Markets Research, assesses the results from our latest survey of EM investors and examines why they are seemingly undecided about the prospects for emerging market assets.

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This week, we’re replaying one of our most popular episodes of the year. Mark McDonald, Head of Data Science and Analytics, looks at how venture capital is helping to fuel transformative technology and business innovation.

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Disclosures and Disclaimers: https://www.research.hsbc.com/R/61/WZwJZwR

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James Pomeroy, Global Economist, looks at key themes that we track here at HSBC Global Research - from the Energy Transition to Disruptive Technology - and the role they will play in the response to climate change.

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Liz Martins, Senior UK Economist, dissects the UK’s Autumn Statement made by Chancellor Jeremy Hunt and considers whether the giveaways offered are affordable.

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Max Kettner, Chief Multi-Asset Strategist, looks at what could be in store for risk assets next year and considers some of the push back he has been getting from investors.

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Alastair Pinder, Head EM and Global Equity Strategist, looks at how we can identify which macro and geopolitical risks are priced into stocks.

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Samantha Hoh, Senior Clean Tech Analyst, looks at how the US is driving ahead in its aim to develop a clean hydrogen economy.

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Liz Martins considers how the latest macro data could affect the UK’s next rate decision, and Daragh Maher looks at whether the dollar can continue to strengthen.

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Simon Wells assesses the efforts of European and UK policymakers to bring inflation under control.

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In this edition, Janet Henry chats with Pranjul Bhandari about the outlook for growth in India, the world's most populous economy, and Indonesia, which is set to have the fourth-largest consumer population by 2030.

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Murat Ulgen looks at whether there are any signs of respite for emerging market assets with challenges continuing to mount up.

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Janet Henry, Global Chief Economist, examines the economic outlook with major central banks set to keep interest rates high for a prolonged period.

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We look at what’s behind the recent oil market rally with Kim Fustier, Head of European Oil and Gas Research, and ask where prices could go from here.

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Liz Martins assesses the daunting list of challenges facing the UK economy with sluggish growth, high inflation, elevated interest rates and a heavy debt burden.

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Disclosures and Disclaimers: https://www.research.hsbc.com/R/51/vGFLbSq

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Paul Mackel outlines our latest thinking on the currency markets and examines whether the US dollar’s comeback can continue.

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James Pomeroy, Global Economist, assesses the potential impact of remote working and technological change on the labour market.

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Mark McDonald, Head of Data Science and Analytics, looks at how venture capital is helping to fuel transformative technology and business innovation.

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Liz Martins, Ana Madeira and Joseph Incalcaterra assess the diverging policy paths in the UK and Brazil - with one central bank hiking and the other cutting interest rates.

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Disclosures and Disclaimers: https://www.research.hsbc.com/R/51/gQpVrT2

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Ryan Wang and Fabio Balboni examine how close we are to the end of the monetary tightening cycles in the US and Europe.

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Murat Ulgen looks at what we can expect from emerging markets in the second half of the year amid lingering concerns over the global economic backdrop.

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James Pomeroy explains why there has been a remarkable turnaround in supply chains, Charles Swabey examines just how reliant the global economy is on fossil fuels and Wai-Shin Chan assesses the growing anti-ESG sentiment in the US.

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The HSBC Global Research team reviews how the dollar's performance may affect the course of EM currencies in the second half of 2023, and highlights where in the world inflation may not be the primary focus of policy makers. 

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Disclosures and Disclaimers: https://www.research.hsbc.com/R/51/KckWhv9

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Janet Henry, HSBC’s Global Chief Economist, assesses whether tightening cycles are nearly complete, the prospects for growth, and some of the upside and downside risks that might lie ahead for the world economy.

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Chris Hare, Senior European Economist, and Jorge Morgenstern, Senior LatAm Economist, look at how the latest inflation figures present contrasting outlooks for central banks in the UK, Europe and Latin America. Erin Xin, Greater China Economist, considers the outlook for China's growth.

Disclosures and Disclaimers: https://www.research.hsbc.com/R/51/zDkcPs9

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Murat Ulgen assesses the findings from our latest survey of EM investors, Davey Jose explains why the commercial and consumer drone market is poised for huge growth and we update on central bank moves.

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Jing Liu looks at how policymakers can boost confidence in China's recovery, Ryan Wang explains why the US rate hiking cycle is not yet over and Dominic Bunning outlines a framework for thinking about the dollar.

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Paul Mackel examines the prospects for emerging market currencies, Stefan Schilbe looks at what’s behind Germany’s underperformance and Liz Martins explains why the latest European economic data are providing some welcome relief.

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Simon Wells explains why we see even more ECB and UK rate rises this year, Ryan Wang looks at whether the US is any closer to reaching an agreement on its debt limit and Jing Liu examines whether China’s economic recovery could gather momentum.

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