97 avsnitt • Längd: 45 min • Månadsvis
The Macro Trading Floor is a fun and actionable macro and markets podcast hosted by Alfonso Peccatiello and Brent Donnelly. If you are looking for banter, financial education, and actionable trade ideas this is the podcast for you!
The podcast The Macro Trading Floor is created by Alfonso Peccatiello & Brent Donnelly. The podcast and the artwork on this page are embedded on this page using the public podcast feed (RSS).
Alf and Brent resume the show by assessing how to approach Trump 2.0 from a macro trading perspective in 2025. They also discuss the ''Death of Europe'': is it happening, or is it an overcrowded narrative?
Trial for Alf's Institutional Research: https://forms.gle/25heFudTB4ouuJ1H6
Brent's Daily Newsletter: https://www.spectramarkets.com/
Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-06dec24/
In this week's episode, Brent and Alf discuss the implications of a Republican sweep. Markets reacted in a textbook way, but today they are busy unwinding most ''Trump trades''. Should we take Trump's agenda at face value and assume it's negative for bonds and positive for the USD? Or should we instead dig deeper and figure out what Trump really wants?
FREE trial to Alf's research: https://forms.gle/jF2nnD2VoNuQjem86
Check out Brent's research: https://www.spectramarkets.com/
Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-08nov24/
Heading into US elections, US bond markets are on fire: yields are selling off, the term premium is back in positive territory, and investors are worried the sell-off can extend further.
Alf and Brent discuss a framework to assess bond yields, the role of tariffs, how to look at the US Dollar and they also zoom in on Canada where the Central Bank has been forced to aggressively cut interest rates.
FREE trial to Alf's research: https://forms.gle/jF2nnD2VoNuQjem86
Check out Brent's research: https://www.spectramarkets.com/
Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-25oct24/
Alf and Brent discuss the recent sharp moves in US election polls and betting markets: Trump's odds are moving up, and so are the odds of a Red Sweep. Is the market fully incorporating these odds? Also, the duo discusses the possibility of persistent financial repression regardless of who prevails in US elections. Finally, they engage in a discussion about the importance of correlations for macro portfolios.
Want to be in touch with Alf? Ping Alfonso Peccatiello on Bloomberg or enroll in the two-weeks free trial of his institutional research: https://forms.gle/5GfSwfzovsFpCA5q7
Want to be in touch with Brent? Ping Brent Donnelly on Bloomberg or visit spectramarkets.com
Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-18oct24/
Alf and Brent discuss the most recent US macro data releases: the hurricane impacted jobless claims, and core inflation has surprised to the upside. Trump now seems to decidedly lead the polls, and his policies could be inflationary. Did the Fed make a mistake by cutting 50 bps? The duo also discusses the Saturday Chinese fiscal press conference, and how to handle seasonality in your trading framework.
Alf's Macro Research Trial (Free): https://forms.gle/6azecq2XhMW2ZFXa8
Brent's Newsletter: https://www.spectramarkets.com/
Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-11oct24/
EXCLUSIVE DISCOUNT TO ALF & BRENT CONFERENCE
https://www.spectramarkets.com/macro-roadmap-2025/
Use the coupon TMTF to get $200 OFF.
Only for the first 100 users - first come, first serve!
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Alf and Brent discuss the many risks on the horizon: the Middle-East escalation, China following up (or not) with real economic stimulus, elections and more.
Today’s episode: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-04oct24/
The Chinese stimulus bazooka has been fired.
Chinese authorities have announced aggressive interest rate cuts, a 1 trillion yuan capital injection for Chinese banks, and they
are also mentioning the magic words: fiscal stimulus.
As a result, stocks are soaring and commodities are rallying.
But - is it really going to work? And can China really afford such a stimulus?
Alf and Brent unpack this in today's show.
Elm's ''Crystal Ball'' Trading Game: https://elmwealth.com/crystal-ball-challenge/
Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-27sep2024/
Alf and Brent discuss the jumbo 50 bps Fed cut and the nuances Powell shared during the press conference. They look at historical parallels to derive how to best approach different asset classes with a specific focus on the USD. They also cover the Chinese economy which seems to be slowly imploding from within.
We are now also on Youtube, where you can see supporting charts and our bald heads.
Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-20sep2024/
Alf and Brent discuss similarities and differences between the world and the macro cycle today versus the pre-pandemic period. While the cycle might look similar, should we not pay attention to the structural differences too? The duo moves on to discuss the aggressive bond market pricing and how to trade around that. Finally, they focus on the US Dollar: will it perform nicely or poorly if we get a recession?
Free trial to Alf's institutional macro research: https://forms.gle/yNU1vBqCqRXSvEHA7
Sign up to Brent's newsletter: https://www.spectramarkets.com/subscribe/
Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/the-macro-trading-floor-transcript-13-september-2024/
Alf and Brent discuss recent developments in macro and labor market data, and debate whether the Fed will cut by 25 or 50 bps in September. Is the bond market overestimating the amount of upcoming cuts, or economic weakness will require the Fed to cut rates even more aggressively? They then move to investigate how long-term investing bias can negatively affect short-term oriented trading decisions, and how to measure consensus.
Free trial to Alf's Institutional Research: https://forms.gle/6bXTD5ApyrdvSv798
Subscribe to Brent's newsletter: https://www.spectramarkets.com/am-fx/
Commodities are the worst-performing asset class over the past 20 years:
https://www.mfs.com/content/dam/mfs-enterprise/mfscom/sales-tools/sales-ideas/mfsp_20yrsa_fly.pdf
Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/the-macro-trading-floor-transcript-6-september-2024/
In this episode, Alf and Brent discuss how cross-asset pricing in bonds, FX and equity markets has rapidly changed in August and compare it with the hard economic reality: are there opportunities to be exploited? They then make a deep dive on the US Dollar, and finally cover a crucial trading framework topic: when and how to use options instead of linear structures to put up macro trades?
FREE TRIAL to Alf's Institutional Macro Research: https://www.tinyurl.com/FreeTrialResearch
Sign up to Brent's newsletter: www.spectramarkets.com/subscribe
Brent's dedicated piece on options vs linear trades: https://50in50.substack.com/p/trade-6-options-or-cash
Transcript link here: https://www.spectramarkets.com/the-macro-trading-floor-transcript-23-august-2024/
Alf and Brent reflect on the immense volatility hitting markets recently, and specifically on the unwind of carry trades: are we done here or is there more to come? Most importantly, they describe how to design and apply a risk management and position sizing framework so that when everybody panics you don't need to.
Want to reach out to Alf? Ping Alfonso Peccatiello on Bloomberg
Brent Donnelly can also be reached on Bloomberg, or via spectramarkets.com
Transcript link here: https://www.spectramarkets.com/the-macro-trading-floor-transcript-12-august-2024/
Alf and Brent reflect on the massive bond market rally and the explosive move in the Japanese Yen - what’s next for macro?
To contact Alf: send him an email at [email protected] or contact him on Bloomberg (Alfonso Peccatiello)
To contact Brent: ping him on Bloomberg (Brent Donnelly) or go on http://www.spectramarkets.com/
Brent’s piece on positioning: https://50in50.substack.com/p/trade-11-sentiment-and-positioning
Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/the-macro-trading-floor-transcript-02-august-2024/
This week, Alf and Brent discuss the brutal equity market sell-off: is it due to macro tectonic shifts, a reassessment of political risks or an unwind of crowded trades?
The duo digs deep trying to connect the dots, and they also discuss a trading framework around this large volatility events.
Alf and Brent look into various ''Trump trades'' now that the odds of a Trump election and Republican sweep have increased: is there still juice left? And where? Specifically, they also reflect on the use of options as macro traders.
Want to see Alf's Cheap Optionality Monitor?
Ping him (Alfonso Peccatiello) on Bloomberg
And take advantage of Brent's course offer!
Think Like a Market Professional:
www.spectramarkets.com/school - use code JULY24 for $500 off
Stuff mentioned during the podcast:
GS piece on AI https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/gs-research/gen-ai-too-much-spend-too-little-benefit/report.pdf?ref=wheresyoured.at
Ed Zitron pieces on AI
https://www.wheresyoured.at/pop-culture/
https://www.wheresyoured.at/put-up-or-shut-up/
White House statement on Biden (find the spelling error)
Alf and Brent discuss the interesting market reaction to the weak US CPI report, and they dig deep into the '''Trump trade'': how would you trade a Trump victory and why? They also talk about the US Dollar and bond markets.
Want to chat with Alf on Bloomberg? Ping him (Alfonso Peccatiello)
You can find Brent's work on Spectra Markets or ping him on BBG (Brent Donnelly)
Transcript of the episode: https://www.spectramarkets.com/the-macro-trading-floor-transcript-12-july-2024/
Elm Toin Coss experiment: https://elmwealth.com/coin-flip/
In this episode, Alf invites Cem Karsan to discuss what's going on in option markets. Cem does a great job at explaining what's the dispersion trade, how big it has become, and how it might unwind wreaking havoc across asset classes. Alf and Cem also discuss macro and how to use options to structure good risk/reward trade ideas.
Visit Cem's website: https://www.kaivolatility.com/
A big macro week is behind us: the combination of CPI and PPI releases provide us with solid information on where the disinflation trend stands. Alf and Brent also discuss Powell’s press conference + change in dots and the European political risks.
Want to get in touch with Alf or Brent?
Ping Alfonso Peccatiello on Bloomberg
Ping Brent Donnelly on Bloomberg
Alf and Brent discuss the ECB and Bank of Canada cuts, and reflect on the big bond market moves seen recently coupled with carry trade implosions. The discussion focuses around risk management principles to prevent bad left tail outcomes when running carry trades, and how to identify positive expected value trades in macro.
Alf is offering a 2-weeks free trial to his institutional research: ping Alfonso Peccatiello on Bloomberg to get in.
Brent just launched Spectra School: www.spectramarkets.com/school
Transcript of this episode: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-07-june-2024/
Paper about the real value of gold: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4807895
The Signing of the Boob: https://x.com/donnelly_brent/status/1798055339881107626
Free Trial to Alf's Institutional Research?
Ping Alfonso Peccatiello on Bloomberg for more info!
In this podcast, Alf invites Peter Farac (aka @countdraghula on Twitter) to the show.
Peter brings a wealth of experience running money and has specific skills in rates and vol markets.
Alf and Peter discuss where the US business cycle actually is, how markets are positioned, and talk shop: how do we actually trade these markets?
Follow Peter @countdraghula on X, Free Newsletter: www.macroisdead.com
Want to meet Alf and Brent in person?! Fill in this 30-second survey so we can make this happen:
https://www.eSurveysPro.com/Survey.aspx?id=ad4fe049-95b7-40ef-a46b-f1bdc509b256
In this episode, Alf and Brent discuss how markets are becoming quickly complacent with realized and implied volatility collapsing across asset classes.
The only surprises are still coming from bond markets, while something interesting is brewing in China which could have a meaningful impact for macro going forward.
Plus, they discuss the odds of a Trump win and its implications.
Useful link: https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024
(Links mentioned in the podcast are in the show notes below: check them out!)
Alf and Brent discuss the soft patch the US seems to be going through and the CPI number released this week. If markets are going to continue with this low-vol grind higher, how do you trade macro now? Also, China seems to be cooking something big this time.
- Contact me (Alfonso Peccatiello) on Bloomberg to check out the Crowded Trades Indicator
- Link to Bill Bishop piece on China:
https://sinocism.com/p/putin-in-china-reactions-to-us-tariffs
- Link to the interview with Paul Tudor Jones: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/alfonso-peccatiello-72156a6a_paul-tudor-jones-market-wizards-activity-7196033190011060226-jDKp?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
The Bank of England pre-announced a rate cut in June, the Swedish Riksbank cut interest rates, and there are a few early signs of weakness emerging in the US as well.
Is the market ready for a regime switch?
Alf and Brent also discuss how they approach trading into volatile events, breaking long-term correlation, and the structural USD strength.
Links mentioned in the show:
https://www.spectramarkets.com/amfx/cad-v-wti-divortium/
https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow#Tab3
Descrizione: Nominal growth is showing some early signs of fatigue, while economists' expectations remain elevated and market pricing still quite hawkish. Alf and Brent discuss potential opportunities arising from this setup, and spend time arguing whether Powell just announced a new Fed Put this week.
Link to Brent's favorite podcast this week: https://pod.link/1594407589/episode/48072fb61a2a4cd1bf4fbbf9dff7e555
US Q1 Real GDP printed below expectations but still at a respectable 1.6%, and core inflation was hotter than analysts forecast: more fuel on the fire of the reflation theme? Alf and Brent present a contrarian macro thesis instead, and also discuss the odds of a Chinese devaluation and more. Finally, they talk about the pros/cons of using stop losses in tactical macro trading. Enjoy the show!
The Fed is all of a sudden opening up to the possibility of hikes: what now? But most importantly: have you ever thought about the possibility of Fed hikes being stimulative? And finally: do you have any idea why every Central Bank in the world is targeting exactly 2% for inflation?
Alf and Brent discuss this and much more in today's episode - have fun!
And also take a look at Brent's piece on safe havens through different macroeconomic environments: https://www.spectramarkets.com/amfx/acute-shortage-of-safe-assets/
This week Alf and Brent discuss how markets seem to be on the lookout for a release valve for the combination of a Fed talking about cuts while nominal growth doesn't call for them: commodiites, bond markets, and the US Dollar seem to be all brewing under the surface. But what will actually break markets?
Markets are in reflation mode with commodities getting bid all over the place: not only gold and crude oil, but also silver, copper, zinc, you name it. Also, the US Dollar is showing signs of topping and it all starts to closely remind one of the most volatile macro periods ever. So: what's the next big trade? Find out in the show!
Alf welcomes back Brent to the show, and the co-host duo discusses macro data, Fed's Waller speech, Japan and China. But most importantly they share thoughts and observations about the current low volatility market regime, how to approach it trying to avoid the most common macro traders' mistakes, and how to think of risk/reward when looking at insurance trades.
Here are some non-trading and investing reads that are useful for traders and investors.
https://www.philgalfond.com/articles/variance-beyond-the-surface
The Inner Game of Tennis by Timothy Gallwey
My System by Aron Nimovich
This week Alf welcomes Dario Perkins to the show. Dario discusses how we got here with much more benign inflationary dynamics without a big damage to labor markets - hint: Central Bankers were lucky more than skilled. Dario and Alf discuss the path ahead for economies and monetary policy, and a trade idea. Alf opens and closes the show with his thoughts on the big Central Bank events of the week. Go and follow Dario on Twitter (@darioperkins). And share the word about TMTF with a friend!
The bond market is waking up to the idea that inflation might be a bit stickier and the Fed's hands are tied. Alf and Brent discuss what this implies for global macro asset classes, and highlight a few trade ideas.
Sign up for the free waiting list for Brent's upcoming Spectra School course: https://www.spectramarkets.com/school/
Alf and Brent discuss how animal spirits seem to be running loose in several asset classes. Signs are evident not only in stocks but also in gold, Bitcoin and option markets. They also focus on Japan and the potential tectonic shifts in the Bank of Japan monetary policy stance.
Alf and Brent discuss the outlook for the US economy, and how bond markets have adjusted their pricing to reflect the odds of a soft landing. Is there a trade maybe? They then move their focus to Canada, Europe, New Zealand, China: a tour around the world searching for macro opportunities. Two trade ideas and the most useful/stupidest thing they heard this week to top up the comeback episode of The Macro Trading Floor!
Link to the Kelly Criterion article: https://capitalgains.thediff.co/p/bankroll
The Macro Trading Floor is back! And there are quite some surprises...
En liten tjänst av I'm With Friends. Finns även på engelska.