E12 – How the Military Predicts the Future

Mike hosts Air Force Colonel Don “Stryker” Haley to talk about how the US military predicts the future. Learn about how future concepts are created and war-gamed, and how that determines which technology should be prioritized for development to solve the right problems.

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* Don “Stryker” Haley on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/don-stryker-haley/

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Show Notes

(00:44) intro

(04:32) setting the stage

(09:16) 2018 NDS

(12:06) JWC 1.0

(16:10) what wargames are for

(19:20) JWC 2.0 and Integrated Deterrence

(19:40) 4 functional battles – CJADC2

(23:17) JWC 3.0

(24:04) the problem with near-term wargaming

(26:27) Top Secret

(28:13) who looks at the future

(31:36) wargaming

(32:19) white/blue/red teams

(40:59) what operators get wrong

(45:10) a blitz may be a mistake

(47:30) Globally Integrated Wargames (GIWG)

(48:33) lots of secrets

(54:01) learning no one’s in charge

(57:17) what happens after wargaming

(1:00:46) the budgeting realities

(1:02:36) Agile Combat Employment (ACE)

(1:08:34) cruise missiles from cargo planes

(1:15:12) AI-powered drones (CCAs)

(1:19:13) outro

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