Today, we welcome back Curtis Fox, author of Hybrid Warfare: The Russian Approach to Strategic Competition & Conventional Military Conflict, which is now hot off the presses and in stores.
We discuss the book's concepts and how they apply to current events. This is part one of two, so sit back, enjoy and come back next week for part two.
Link to Biography: https://www.linkedin.com/in/curtis-fox-mba-pmp-59b74223/
One CA Podcast aims to inspire people interested in working on-ground to forward U.S. foreign policy.
We bring in people who are current or former military, diplomats, development officers, and field agents to discuss their experiences and recommendations for working the "last three feet" of foreign relations.
Have a story to tell? Please email us to either speak or guest-host at [email protected]
One CA Podcast is a product of the Civil Affairs Association: https://www.civilaffairsassoc.org/
Today's music is from the Disney film COCO and is a tribute to Ana Ofelia Murguia, whom I once met at a San Diego Latin Film Festival. Ana passed away this week at age 90, so this episode's music is her tribute.
Murguia: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/01/movies/ana-ofelia-murguia-coco-dead.html
Link to music: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aJfoPUOUWBw
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Transcript for I&II
Introduction
Welcome to the One CA Podcast. This is your host, Jack Gaines. One CA is a product of the Civil Affairs Association and brings in people who are current or former military, diplomats, development officers, and field agents to discuss their experiences on ground with the partner nation's people and leadership. Our goal is to inspire anyone interested in working the last three feet of foreign relations. To contact the show, email us at [email protected]. or look us up on the Civil Affairs Association website at www.civilaffairsassoc.org. I'll have those in the show notes.
00:00:41 CURTIS FOX
This is Curtis Fox.
00:00:43 JACK GAINES
Curtis! Jack Gaines, how you doing?
00:00:45 CURTIS FOX
Doing good, man. You're very punctual.
00:01:07 JACK GAINES
Russia and Syria is a great example of a combination of, as you say, hybrid operations evolving into the full scale kinetic operations.
00:01:35 JACK GAINES
For the listeners? Sure. I can't even pronounce them. And I did read them, but it would be better for you to describe them. I mean,
00:01:42 CURTIS FOX
I mean, I tell you what, I speak Russian and they're still hard for me to pronounce. Maybe the first term we can go into is Maskarovka, because this is one of the Russians' favorite terms. And that literally just translates to camouflage. This is the hidden hand approach that the Russians have in history done so well. They don't want these things to be directly attributable to Moscow.
00:02:06 CURTIS FOX
Just literally means activity. And what they mean by that is all of the little things that you do in the background to try to frustrate a target nation's institutions from responding to the intervention that you're conducting. You do not want them to be able to get forces in the field. Preferably, you'd have them stay in their barracks. And you want to set up blockades that frustrate public transit and encourage people to stay in their homes. Or maybe come out in mass protest, preferably in front of city hall or a police station so the political apparatus is frozen. And then vignettes at most is surprise. But it's surprise of, you know, like speedy movement. And what they mean by that is if they can use soft forces to rapidly deploy and establish some sort of a foothold on a limited number of key objectives. then they need the rapid maneuver of heavy ground forces to entrench those gains. This was the secret sauce that did so well in the Crimean annexation back in 2014. So the VDV, the Russian Airborne Services, those are really the elite trigger pullers of the Russian armed forces. And once a number of Spetsnaz battalions had advanced far enough up roads and blackaded positions coming into the peninsula, The VDB immediately used a number of secured local airstrips to move in forces in mass. And they spread rapidly throughout the peninsula and secured all those gains.
00:03:43 JACK GAINES
You know, it kind of reminds me of Bosnia and Kosovo during the conflict and how it has resulted in Kosovo having a Bosnian shadow government in part of the border towns.
00:03:53 CURTIS FOX
There's some real similarities in the way Russia continues to manipulate and maintain influence in Georgia. and the Serbian approach in Bosnia. That's probably where they get a lot of these ideas from. If you look at Georgia, there's an autonomous enclave called South Asatia, and then another one called the Bukazia, which is right up on the coast of the Black Sea. And the Russians would have us believe that these enclaves had ethnic Russians in them, that they would have you believe that they don't want anything to do with that government. And they want to remain segmented off and autonomous from the country with no trade and political independence.
00:04:33 JACK GAINES
I remember Lithuania had that issue, too. They were arguing that there are Russians in Lithuania that want nothing to do with Lithuania. I remember them posing the same argument there. So it must be a form of foothold mentality where they're saying, look, these are our people.
00:04:49 CURTIS FOX
Sure. Yeah. Vladimir Putin actually talks about it as a genuine tragedy that these are Russian citizens that have been scattered across the globe and isolated from the government in their mother country. Never really offers so many resources to come home if it's really that big of a tragedy. And they don't seem to want to migrate to Russia on their own dime. But this being a civil affairs podcast, it's probably also worthy to point out something the Russians do very well. is they figure out what influencers have their hands on which buttons. They're very good at understanding which individuals have access to what information and which individuals run X, Y, and Z departments and who would it be good to make friends with.
00:05:36 JACK GAINES
Right. They have good influence operations. They know how to map people and their networks and reach. So your book is really large.
00:05:44 JACK GAINES
book is really large.
00:05:48 JACK GAINES
And I appreciate it. I mean, it's what, 500 pages?
00:05:52 CURTIS FOX
I tell you what, my publisher made me take out three appendices and an additional chapter. I actually wrote a chapter. It was a comparative glance on U .S. doctrine to highlight how is the Russian apparatus, the political apparatus, how do they actually create authorizations for these interventions? And then, you know, how do they actually deploy military force? from the available units that they have in SOF. And then I compared that to how we would do it in the United States. So that whole chapter was removed. And then I had separate appendices on the Soviet arsenal that Russia inherited in 1991, including the nuclear ordinance.
00:06:35 JACK GAINES
Huge maintenance cost. Oh, my gosh.
00:06:37 CURTIS FOX
my gosh. And then I had an appendice on the state procurement programs, GPV 2020 and 2027. And I go through. All the hardware that they've been purchasing over the last 10, 12 years, you know, for Army, Navy, Air Force, Strategic Rocket Forces.
00:06:53 JACK GAINES
So are you going to push those into a second book or are you going to make those online dependencies for people who just want to learn more about it?
00:07:01 CURTIS FOX
So those are on the website right now. You can actually go read those. And, you know, if you're, I mean, you need to be an Uber nerd to get into them. But if you want to know which electronic warfare systems Moscow is running in Ukraine right now, it's all there.
00:07:15 JACK GAINES
Well, if I'm uber lazy, could you send me the link so I can post it on the website?
00:07:19 CURTIS FOX
For you, anything.
00:07:20 JACK GAINES
I'll put it in the show notes. That way people can check it out.
00:07:23 CURTIS FOX
I'd love to pivot from that and talk to you a little bit about some of the units that they actually need to execute these strategies. And the reason it's such a relevant conversation is because a lot of these units have been hollowed out now in the current war, the Russo -Ukrainian War. Oh,
00:07:41 JACK GAINES
wow.
00:07:44 CURTIS FOX
has taken such extraordinary casualties that it was combat ineffective by the end of last year.
00:07:51 JACK GAINES
Is it kind of like that old saying about soft? The best time to train a soft person is 10 years ago? The best time to train a new VZV person is 10 years ago? Is that what they're facing right now?
00:08:03 CURTIS FOX
It's a little bit of that. The other issue that they're running into is they just have nobody they can recruit into the ranks. They have an inverted demographic. in their country, and so they just have no healthy young people that can serve as soldiers. So they can go through and round up the homeless, and they can go through the prisons, and they can round those people up. They have a vicious, vicious narcotics crisis in Russia, and they can put people who are addicted to substances in the armed forces, and you can throw those people in as cannon fodder, but they don't perform the soft mission very well. And they certainly don't make good elite light infantry. So they're in a real pickle as far as deploying elite forces go. And you need those elite units to conduct hybrid warfare. So maybe that's a good starting point.
00:08:51 JACK GAINES
Are they recruiting other people than the White Caucus people from the steppes so they don't have a race issue that's also blocking it?
00:09:01 CURTIS FOX
It's entirely possible if they get desperate enough that, yeah, they'll start channeling them into elite units. I don't really have any direct evidence that they wouldn't have put people from an Asian disposition into, you know, let's say the 10th Spetsnaz Brigade.
00:09:14 JACK GAINES
Right.
00:09:15 CURTIS FOX
But the big one to watch are the Chechens. The ruling family in Chechnya is allied with Vladimir Putin, and they're very willing to contribute troops. But one of the unspoken realities about that is that the more Chechens are organized into, you know, the Volstok and Zapad battalions and pushed into foreign wars. The fewer Chechens there are at home to cause trouble for Moscow. And there are other ethnicities that start getting uppity. Moscow will absolutely adopt similar tactics.
00:09:46 JACK GAINES
Sure. Now, the trick is, though, the surviving Chechens that are battle -hardened to come back to Chechnya, what's the risk that they'll flip the nation back towards independence?
00:09:56 CURTIS FOX
It's definitely on Putin's mind. But the goal is, first off, those individuals are loyal to the family and basically rules Chechnya through a puppet governor, let's say. It operates almost as an autonomous vassal state. And so they would first have to fight their own people. And then the second issue is that Moscow has absolutely no qualms about sending a special missions unit down there to round somebody up in their home. I mean, you can go to their Wikipedia page and they're open and honest about saying they still conduct operations in Chechnya all the time.
00:10:35 JACK GAINES
Actively hunting people down. Actively hunting people down.
00:10:37 CURTIS FOX
people down. And they're on the southern end of Chechnya. And those guys will have no problem going up there and getting them. Okay.
00:10:45 JACK GAINES
Okay. So it's dangerous, but it's unlikely. It's less likely right now. Yeah. Unless Russia comes out of this Ukraine conflict so battered that everyone starts seeing the blood in the water. Right.
00:10:57 CURTIS FOX
The one thing that could create a real separatist movement in Chechnya is if Kardarov and his cronies decide that they're just going to switch allegiances. Sure. If he decides that Putin is weak or that serving Moscow is no longer in the family interest, that would change everything.
00:11:14 JACK GAINES
Okay. So we were talking about the development and evolution of hybrid warfare.
00:11:20 CURTIS FOX
Yeah, yeah. We got a little off track.
00:11:24 JACK GAINES
That's okay. We'll just play as is. It's fine.
00:11:27 CURTIS FOX
Well, and, you know, Chechnya is a good place to start for this because the first and second Chechen wars were so taxing on Russian and international standing and resources and manpower and so embarrassing for Moscow that they realized they needed to come up with another way to do this. They needed a way that would limit their investment, limit their risks, limit their attribution, and let's say stack the deck in their favor so it was more likely that they could slant the outcome to victory.
00:11:57 JACK GAINES
And they've had a long term intelligence practice. And so do you think that a lot of their successes in intelligence were just incorporated into a more military style that they just weaponized it a little bit more? to what we want, our desires for Russia.
00:12:29 CURTIS FOX
Russia. So let me kind of outline the framework here, I guess, and I think I'll answer your question. Sure. There is a ruling class in Russia of about 200 individuals. Right. Those 200 individuals, they call themselves Slovy. Most of them were educated during the Soviet era. The education system collapsed when the Soviet Union collapsed and it was never rebuilt. And so their talent pool that is constantly getting smaller and dwindling. A lot of these guys are into their mid -70s now. Some of them, like Sergei Lavrov, came from the Foreign Service, but a lot of them are simply KGB men like Putin.
00:13:08 JACK GAINES
So these aren't long -term families of Russia? No. They're not the Vanderbilts.
00:13:14 CURTIS FOX
Yeah, they're not oligarchs, for sure. They're only oligarchs in the fact that they wield in fun.
00:13:19 JACK GAINES
Yeah.
00:13:20 CURTIS FOX
Basically, the promise that Vladimir Putin made to the Russian elites when they started this project, w